Rod: I'm getting worried. I know you told me not to worry, but I really can't help it.
Ax: What worries you?
Rod: I know it's early. I know we don't know what the tickets will look like yet. And I know that Obama has the money and the staff to really put together a field operation the likes of which Democrats could only dream about. But what worries me is that, in this environment allegedly so favorable to the Democrats, the dream candidate of the party looks as if the wind's been knocked out of him.
Ax: Well, he's doing fine. He's leading or tied in just about every single poll that's come out over the course of two months. He is tied in states like
Rod: But he should be doing better. Michael Dukakis was up 17 points before the convention. And I heard this from the mouths of senior Obama campaign operatives. They assumed that he would be doing better by this point.. and did not roll their eyes at talk of a solid lead. True, it was ridiculous for McCain to try and lower expectations and insist that they'd be down 15 points.. but Obama hasn't cracked 50. He wasn't able to crack 50 even when the more weakly partisan Republicans weren't behind McCain.
Ax: Why should he be doing better? Maybe the Obama folks bought some of their own hype, but a solid three point lead in a 50/50 country against a universally known, well-respected war-hero Republican isn't "doing bad." And he's leading in enough states now to be in a great position for the electoral college.
Rod: Maybe the right analogy is that Obama survived the Democratic primaries; he didn't win them. He had an early lead, and he survived until the end; his lead was big enough to overcome Hillary Clinton's comeback. Remember, in almost every state, the undecideds broke for her at the last minute.
Ax: So you're asking: what does it mean that Obama doesn't have an early lead in the general? Will it be like the primaries, when, as the primaries went on, more people voiced their doubts about him?
Rod: Right
Ax: What does a national lead mean, though? It's kind of irrelevant. If you ask: why isn't Obama doing better in
Rod: Ok... well, in all of those states, Obama has lost ground to McCain over the past few months.
Ax: I concede the point. McCain's had a good month. He figured out how to finesse the energy crisis in real time. The political class deemed the Surge a success. And the McCain campaign got in the Obama campaign's OODA loop by aggressively attacking him as an effete celebrity when Obama was overseas. And Obama has some ground to make up in these swing states. But this is a temporary phase of the campaign.
Rod: I don't know. In at least six major states, Obama's been on the air for weeks with harsh contrast ads against McCain, and the numbers haven't moved. I forgot to mention: McCain hasn't been on the air at all in many of those states, like
Ax: McCain's gains might be ephemeral. There's no evidence that, of the people who are making up their minds, McCain is getting the lion's share. Certainly, there will always be a group of highly engaged voters whose gut feelings are dictated by the headlines, and to that extent, a swing of a few points in one direction or the other is to be expected.
Rod: But when can Obama change this? When can he get in McCain's OODA loop? Already, the signals we're getting suggest that convention speakers this year will be ordered to go positive and not make contrasts with McCain. The last time that happened, Republicans wound up fronting Zell Miller and Bush got twice the convention bounce that Kerry did. People are angry.. and if they're not angry, they're anxious. They want to know where Obama would take the country and why McCain can't take the country there. And Obama's campaign seems to be obsessed with proving that he's a regular guy....well, he's not. Not because of his name or his ethnicity or anything like that. Because he's a half a term
Ax: Well, he's as much of a regular guy as McCain is, and his family is as traditional as all get out. And what Americans do know of him, they like. I don't think the campaign is obsessed with trying to de-exoticize their candidate. I think they're worried about finding a way to connect with irregular Democratic voters about the economy. But I don't think McCain has connected with them either. His tax cut plan is being criticized by conservatives for being too lop-sided.
Rod: Well, conservatives no longer have a problem with McCain. His support among the Republican base has shot up this summer.
Ax: But they're no more enthusiastic than they were. And all this talk of a pro-choice running mate doesn't help matters. But don't worry. I think they partially agree with Paul Krugman, believe it or not. He wrote this morning that "Mr. Obama's failure to achieve a decisive edge on economic policy is central to his failure to open up a big lead in overall polling." The economy's not doing to get better.
Rod: Yeah. I don't think it's the economy. I think it's racism. I think, in a state like
Ax: And yet: Obama's doing OK there. And in
Rod: Then why doesn't Obama act like he's fighting? Why does he tell fundraisers that he's going to win? Why is he too cool for school?
Ax: Again - I think that, on some level, he's fighting like hell, spending lots of money on negative ads in battleground states. On a higher level, I think that he came back from
Rod: Democrats always think like that. And then Republicans outmaneuver them. It always happens that way. Democrats are scared to be Democrats, and Republicans try to scare everyone about Democrats. I thought the party leaned from these mistakes.
Ax: They say Obama's smarter than the average Democrat.
Rod: I hope he is.
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