The Atlantic's Boldest**

** Wherein New York's Boldest is the moniker for the Dept. of Corrections, this is my weekly corrections column.

1. I called State Sen. Larry Grooms "Larry Broom." For that I was made fun of by a South Carolina political blog. It was a typo; maybe I thought "Broom" because he blew by me when I said hello.

2. A weird sentence construction implied that Mitt Romney was a "gay Republican." That was a typo, obviously, but still -- titillating.

3. Gill Action had nothing to do with Tony Fabrizio's poll. That one's on me.

4. The controversial Confederate flag in South Carolina was moved from atop the state house to a memorial nearby -- not to a museum.

5. It was a mistake NOT to post on Mitt Romney's dog-carrying practices.

2nd Quarter Fundraising: A Primer

The total amount raise is perhaps the least interesting, least informative number of them all. Certainly, the following figures are more revealing:

(1) Total contributor base
(2) Average donation
(3) Total raised for primary
(4) Average expenditure rate per month
(5) Total burn rate
(6) Staff salary burn rate

We won't be able to access the full reports until July 15, but here's what I'll be looking for:

(1) Who's polling the most?
(2) How much has Rudy Giuliani's campaign spent on staff and technology in Iowa, NH and SC?
(3) By how much has John McCain pared his campaign staff?
(4) Which major campaign consultants don't receive salaries?
(5) How much have the campaigns spent on microtargeting technology?
(6) Which vendors are getting rich.. and how closely connected are they to major donors?
(7) How many Dems maxed out to both HRC and Obama?
(8) What percentage of Edwards's haul comes from the trial bar?
(9) Have celebrities shifted their giving patterns?
(10) What's the $400 haircut gem of this cycle?
(11) How much has Mitt Romney spent on television ads?

A Romney Internal Memo: 2nd Quarter Expectations

Romney advisers Ben Ginsberg and Alex Castellanos have some pointers for Mitt Romney's senior staff to consider as they read news coverage about the close second quarter of nomination fundraising.

Point A is simple enough. Romney won't raise as much as he did last quarter. But that's not shocking, and nor is it evidence of any downturn in his support. We still expect him to raise more than Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, although perhaps -- just perhaps -- Giuliani might come closer than folks expect.

Secondly, Ginsberg and Castellanos explain Romney's decision to pump a personal loan into the campaign treasury. We're not sure how much yet -- that'll depend on how much was raised. Symbol and substance: Romney wants to show his donors that he's willing to part with his own money for the cause, and his campaign wants to stay on budget. Its early spending on voter contacts and television ads have paid off.

The breadth of Romney's fundraising network remains one of the surprises of the cycle, and a second healthy quarter in such a miserable fundraising environment for Republicans testifies to both his campaign's progress over the past few months and Romney's acumen as a collector of friends and allies.

This memo touches on one metric we'd like to know more about: the total numbers of contributors, which is a reflection of the depth of Romney's support, as opposed to its acknowledged breadth. Barack Obama's fundraising has those two dimensions -- breadth and depth.

The memo also reminds the campaign team to ignore what opponents raised for the general election -- Romney's not raising any, just yet.

To: Beth Myers, National Campaign Manager Spencer Zwick, National Finance Director Darrell Crate, National Treasurer National Finance Co-Chairs National Finance Committee From: Benjamin L. Ginsberg, National Counsel, and Katie Biber Chen, General Counsel Alex Castellanos, Senior Adviser Date: June 29, 2007 Subject: A Guide to Second Quarter FEC Reports

With the second quarter FEC filing deadline on Saturday, Romney for President and the other campaigns will once again be releasing fundraising totals. You will see much reporting on the numbers and their meaning, especially in comparison to the first quarter. As we did in March, we would like to provide you with some guidance on what to expect. First, the coverage will no doubt fixate on the "horserace numbers." This tells only part of the story given this cycle's unprecedented nature, and the competing needs of less well-known candidates, such as Governor Romney, for both fundraising dollars and political exposure. For example, we should expect Governor Romney's total for the quarter will be very strong but less than the first quarter total. Our total will reflect the campaign's strategic decision to include more political travel days in this quarter than in the first. For example, Governor Romney spent 8 days in New Hampshire and 12 days in Iowa this quarter, which was double the number of days he spent in those states during the first quarter. He also spent time preparing for and participating in three Republican presidential candidate debates. This resulted in important political strides (as increasingly recognized in the media, most recently by Dan Balz's piece in The Washington Post), but there has been a tradeoff with time spent fundraising.

Second, our overall fundraising total, and what the campaign has been able to do with the money, is more significant than just a snapshot of the amount raised for the second quarter. During this past quarter, the campaign succeeded in significantly expanding its political and financial base as Governor Romney continued to introduce himself to voters through aggressive campaigning and impressive debate performances. As you know, we should expect to see a doubling of the number of grassroots activists donating to our campaign. This is due in part to the success of events such as Sign Up America that brought more than 10,000 new donors into the fold.

Third, the totals raised will highlight that the field has split into two tiers – one that will be able to raise the funds to compete with the Democrats in the general election and one that will not. If history proves any guide, the issue of "electablity" will surface in the media. Remember that any campaign accepting taxpayer funding for the primary (and that will be tempting for any candidate who cannot show at least $15 million raised from January through June 30) is limited to spending about $50 million until the 2008 Conventions in September. Such a campaign will simply not be able to compete against Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or John Edwards, who will be able to raise and spend unlimited amounts through their own convention.

Fourth, like in the first quarter, some campaigns will report totals that include funds raised for the general election. Since money raised for the general election cannot be used in the primary, this money is meaningless and should not be used as a factor in determining a campaign's strength. As you are aware, since January, Romney for President has raised no general election funds, while the McCain, Giuliani, Clinton, Obama and Edwards campaigns have raised both. Remember also that all their costs for raising this money must be paid for with
primary, not general, election funds so it also has a negative impact on their cash-on-hand totals with no concurrent primary election investment benefit.

Fifth, some attention will be focused on Governor Romney's personal loan to the campaign
treasury. Just as in 1994 and 2002, Governor Romney is committed to ensuring that the campaign continues to expand and that he can spread his message. Governor Romney is matching the level of commitment exhibited by supporters and contributors who are providing the campaign with the resources it needs to win in this very new type of campaign.
In conclusion, this memorandum should provide a better understanding of some of the reporting and analysis we can expect to see during the coming day

Pictures Of Thompson In South Carolina

Not sure which is more horrible: the abortion thing or -- gasp -- his membership in the Council on Foreign Relations. When I told this guy I was with the Atlantic, he looked at me as if I embodied the enemy.

CNN's Candy Crowley and producer Sasha Johnson plot their next move.

The All-American Presidential Forum On PBS: A Brief Review

** The word I heard most often: "invest," which means -- "spend taxpayer money" to...
** John Edwards knew the subject matter cold and the audience appreciated it.
** Mike Gravel was on his game. (Seriously -- no joke).
** The Democratic candidates seemed to endorse the idea of "tax fairness" without calling for changes to the federal income tax.
** Judging by the level of applause only, Barack Obama was not the "winner" -- but debates are not his format, and many of his answers had nuance that the white candidates did not muster. Anyway, why assume that the black candidate would automatically be the winner?
** Hillary Clinton did well. And she received the evening's only standing O.
** Joe Biden alternated between hectoring and preaching -- a strong night for him. Nice to know about his AIDS test. And that Barack Obama was tested with his wife Michelle, thank you, and not with Biden.
** Bill Richardson seemed unusually quiet, but he proved that he'd read moderator Tavis Smiley's book.
** The focus on criminal justice reform was new, but the candidates were short of solutions.
** Jim Jordan's going to kill me, but, um, Chris Dodd was the whitest guy up there. Sorry Dodd-dudes.
** Wouldn't it be fun to see the Republicans answer the same questions?

Obama Campaign Sends Memo To Press

I think this means that they've raised more than $20M but less than $27M.

To: Interested Parties

From: The Obama Campaign

RE: Primary v. General Funds – A Distinction with a Difference

The second quarter fundraising period ends at midnight on Saturday and the various Presidential campaigns will soon release their fundraising totals for that period. As you know, this is the first modern Presidential election when the candidates are simultaneously raising money for the primary and general elections. This has led to some confusion and misreporting in media accounts.

The only figure that truly matters is the total money raised for the primary.

General Election funds are not available until after candidate is officially nominated at the convention on August 28, 2008.
Candidates will continue to raise and spend primary funds from the moment they become presumptive nominee (likely early in 2008) until the convention.
There is no question that the eventual nominee will be able to raise sufficient funds for the general election, so there is no strategic advantage to raising general election funds now.

In reality, the funds raised for the general election serve no purpose other than inflating a candidate’s total.

The candidates who have raised the most general election money have done so because of a strategic decision to ask donors to write $4,600 checks (instead of the $2,300 per person allowed in the Primary).

The Obama Campaign has decided not to aggressively raise money for the general election (i.e. not ask all of our current maxed out donors to write a second check), because it doesn’t help us win the nomination and would distract from our efforts to get as many contributors as possible, which we believe is ultimately the most important metric. In addition to providing the broadest financial base, a large number of contributors provides a foundation of volunteers for the caucuses and primaries. The Obama campaign currently has more than 240,000 contributors.

In media reporting on the 2nd quarter fundraising number, the only truly accurate measure of strength and support is to compare the amount primary funds raised. The general election funds should be discounted and ignored. While it may be impossible to get an exact total of the primary funds raised right after the quarter ends, every campaign should be able to give you a good estimate of the breakdown.

Watching the PBS Debate

First candidate to mention the "covenant" -- Hillary Clinton.

First candidate to give props to Howard for paving the way for African Americans -- Barack Obama

First candidate to kiss up to Obama: Dennis Kucinich

First candidate to mention Katrina -- Clinton

First white candidate to try to sound like a preacher: Mike Gravel

Moderator who loves the sound of his own voice (and why not -- it's a sexy voice): Tavis Smiley

Has Obama Raised $30M In Primary Funds This Quarter?

It's possible.... his campaign isn't saying either way. Raising $10M more than Clinton is impressive -- almost as impressive as a 250K growth of one's donor base.

The fundraising story of this election is about the Democrats, generally, and how they've been able to build a massive, web-inspired donor base that rivals and in many cases exceeds what the Republicans built with direct mail.

Let's also stipulate that, while many in the press, including, occasionally, this here column, wonder whether the excitement that greeted Obama's entrance into the race has fizzled, the size and direction of his 2nd quarter haul gives one a reason to pause and review the physics of this race.

The Full Clinton Memo -- Annotated

Here's the 2nd quarter memo sent out by Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson. My annotations are inclined.

Friends,

Simply put, this has been a great quarter for us.

True. It's been a solid quarter. A few slips -- a misplaced Iowa memo, etc. haven't dampened the overall mood.

Hillary won both debates, demonstrating an enormous command of the issues and the unique ability to take on tough challenges and achieve real results. Millions of Americans saw that Hillary has the strength and experience to bring the kind of change that the nation needs.

And then millions more Americans saw Hillary's lighter side when she and President Clinton appeared in a video homage to the Sopranos that announced our campaign's theme song.

A very cute skit, but the Sopranos is an elite cultural phenom, and it's not clear whether the ad resonated more with elites than it did with Clinton's electoral base. And Celine Dion???

With the second quarter coming to a close, I wanted to take a moment to update you on the key developments of the last three months and where the campaign is headed in the days ahead.

Before the media does it for me.

President Clinton hits the campaign trail with Hillary next week, when they'll barnstorm together across Iowa. Later this month, he'll campaign with Hillary in New Hampshire.

We know that President Clinton is a huge asset in this race. He's uniquely positioned to talk about Hillary's biography and her lifelong commitment to children and families because he knows her life's story better than anyone.

As Hillary lays out her vision on the stump, he will be invaluable in filling in the details about her life, her background, and her accomplishments for Americans to get to know her better. For a preview of what he will say please go to: http://www.hillaryclinton.com/video/27.aspx

The Clinton campaign is confident that Hillary Clinton's identity as a political actor is secure enough to bring Bill Clinton on the campaign trail as a validator. Also, Bill Clinton has been itching to do retail politics. Their first event is in Des Moines on Monday night.

We expect to bring in about what we did in the First Quarter, or slightly more, which should put us in the range of $27 million. To put that figure in some perspective, it is more than any Democrat has ever raised in the second quarter of the "off" year. While that figure is record setting, we do expect Senator Obama to significantly outraise us this quarter.

Define "significantly."

Bottom line is that both campaigns will raise a great deal of money and that we will have all the resources we need to compete and win. Ultimately, this race will come down to the candidates themselves, their message and the quality of their campaigns. We feel very good about where the campaign stands, and our ability to win the primary and go toe-to-toe with any of the Republicans in the field.

Bottom line: The Democratic Party is not the Clinton Party anymore; if anything, it's the Howard Dean party. But Wolfson is right on points and style: I don't detect the same degree of nervousness among Clinton advisers I did when Barack Obama first entered the race.

Electability -- As Mark Penn likes to say, people always ask "can Hillary win?" but he has never had this asked of someone who is already winning. This week's national polls underscore that observation.

According to the latest CNN, Newsweek and USA Today/Gallup polls, Hillary beats all of the leading GOP contenders head-to-head, and she has solidified double-digit leads in all of the national primary polls. She's also leading in 34 out of the 36 states with recent primary polls, including the early states. Voters say she's the candidate most likely to win the general election and the primary, and according to a June Washington Post/ABC poll, Hillary leads by nearly 50 points on the question of who has the best experience to be President.

Mark Penn DOES like to say that. But she's not winning in Iowa, and the polls in South Carolina are equivocal. That Wolfson included this paragraph speaks to the fact that too many Democrats are worried that Clinton inevitably polarizes. We the press haven't made up our minds as to whether HRC MUST win Iowa or not.

One of the best examples of Hillary's electoral strength is the incredible support she continues to receive from women. The campaign has developed a large and growing network of Women for Hillary nationally and in key states. From grassroots organizations like EMILY's List and the National Organization for Women to respected leaders like Maya Angelou and Madeline Albright, Hillary is drawing key support from women who made up 54% of the electorate in 2004 and could be the "X-factor" in 2008.

As long as Obama's in the race, I don't think Clinton will become the movement candidate. But in a state like New Hampshire, where women usually make up MORE than 54% of the electorate, women are undeniable assets to Clinton's campaign.

In The States -- We continue to ramp up our efforts in the early states, where we're seeing growing grassroots excitement for Hillary's candidacy. In Iowa, for example, Hillary has traveled across the state with Governor and Christie Vilsack, visiting the Four Corners while the campaign signs up thousands of caucus goers. In New Hampshire, volunteers have clocked over 2,000 hours volunteering on her behalf while an incredible 50 state legislators have thrown their support to her. In Nevada, the campaign has launched African American, Hispanic and Asian American/Pacific Islander Leadership Councils and racked up 108 endorsements. Local observers say Hillary's superior state organization has helped her take a 20-point lead in the polls. In South Carolina, Hillary named former Governor Richard Riley a state campaign Co-Chair this week and won praise for her commencement address at historically black Claflin University.

She's running strong in NH and Nevada.

News & Notes

Please check out the campaign's news website, www.hillaryhub.com , which serves as a clearinghouse for the latest news, blog items and video clips on Hillary's race. And be sure to watch tonight's Democratic presidential forum on PBS at 9 p.m. EDT.

Finally, I hope you've seen coverage of Hillary's recent policy speeches which have previewed the change she would bring to this nation. In Florida, she laid out a plan to establish universal pre-Kindergarten to give every child in America a head start on learning. In New Hampshire, she pledged to lift the ban on stem cell research and pursue life-saving treatments for millions of Americans. And in New Orleans, she outlined a proposal to rebuild the Gulf Coast and restructure our disaster response system. Hillary is the only candidate with a clear vision of how to move this country forward, and the experience to hit the ground running on her first day in the White House.

Thanks again for everything you do for Hillary and this campaign.

Best,

Howard

An Obama Update

Bill Burton, an Obama spokesman, refuses to say whether Obama outraised Hillary overall -- and it really doesn't matter all that much. The campaign is proud that it received donations from about 1,550 donors per day since the beginning of the quarter. Since campaign manager David Plouffe sent an e-mail to Obama supporters bragging about the broad contributor base, 4,000 new donors have contributed. The total as of right now: 246,308

Clinton's Raised $27M This Quarter... About $20M For The Primary

Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign gobbled up more than $27M this quarter, her campaign said today.

It's an impressive sum befitting a frontrunner. A campaign spokesman said the finance team did not yet have a clear breakdown as to how much of that money was raised for the pre-nomination period, although the spokesman said the ratio would be similar to the first quarter, when Clinton raised roughly $20M for the primaries, about 6 million for the general election, and transferred about $10M from her Senate account.

That primary number is the key.

Howard Wolfson, the campaign's communications director, wrote in a memorandum posted to Clinton's website that "while that figure is record setting, we do expect Senator Obama to significantly outraise us this quarter."

The Clinton campaign released its 3rd quarter estimate on the same day that Obama's campaign told reporters it expected to recieve donations from more than 250,000 donors this fundraising period. By announcing their tally before the quarter offiically ends this weekend, Clinton's campaign may take the edge off news that Obama's campaign collected more money overall.

More....

Trouble For Republicans In Florida?

Ahead of the National Assosication of Latino Elected Offiicials conference in Washington, the St. Petersburg Times' Adam Smith sees "ominous signs for the Florida GOP when it comes to the state's fastest-growing ethnic group."

Makes you wonder why Sen. Fred Thompson is talking about illegal immigrants from Cuba.

And I've Officially Decided That My Blog Posts Have No Typos

It takes some gazones to proclaim to the world that you're in the top tier.....

From a Richardson press release:

Governor Bill Richardson Officially Breaks into Top Tier

For Immediate Release

June 27, 2007 Contact: Katie Roberts

(505) [REDACTED]

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson's campaign for the Democratic Presidential nomination is building momentum and gaining new support across the country. Earlier this week, the campaign released a poll showing a huge jump in Governor Richardson's support in Iowa. In fact, among the likeliest Iowa caucus-goers, Governor Richardson is now polling ahead of Senator Barack Obama.

"Governor Richardson's plans for getting all of our troops out of Iraq by the end of the year, providing health insurance to every American, and making our economy the strongest and fairest in the world are resonating with voters," said campaign manager Dave Contarino.

Governor Richardson continues to build strong upward momentum in polls across the board, and particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire. Today, an independent poll released by WHDH-TV and Suffolk University shows Governor Richardson tied with former Senator John Edwards in New Hampshire

Our Democratic Race Rankings

As always, a product of Chuck Todd and myself.

Well, we've finished the week of the Great "Sopranos" spoof -- but, oh Sen. Clinton, how could you go so wrong on the song? The only Canadian song worth a darn is their national anthem (which unfortunately is better than ours; if only our national anthem were "America The Beautiful"). On to the rankings...

These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Democratic Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Republican rankings.

1. Sen. Hillary Clinton.

She's had a pretty solid spring. She's been like Big Ten football -- three yards and a cloud of dust. Her press shop has been the most aggressive and most successful of either side. There's been quite a mix of positive press and negative opponent coverage that's given communications guru Howard Wolfson and company something to smile about every day. The Obama memo-Indian fundraiser example says it all. And wasn't there something about some Hillary biographies that were going to make a big splash? Anybody remember anything about those books? We didn't think so. Still, no knockout blows yet and we can't help but notice that the combined Obama-Edwards numbers would regularly top Clinton -- although that tends to be the case with most front-runners. If Edwards or Obama ever fades, can Clinton win a two-way? Many Clinton supporters claim that she and not Obama is the dominant "second choice" among Edwards supporters. We'll see.

2. Barack Obama

Will the Obama press shop ever be able to pass off a piece of negative press without it lashing back in its face? The press has bought the Clinton line on Obama that he should be held to a higher standard when it comes to "contrast" campaigning. Is that fair? Well, it is -- as long as Obama keeps apologizing. If he stops, the media might stop covering these incidents in the same message frame that they are now. The good news for Obama is that it appears his team is going to do great on the money front, which should erase what's been a mediocre press month for the campaign. Should he actually top Clinton (both of us believe that she'll outraise Obama this quarter), it will be another shot in the arm and will probably drive Obama's national numbers up a bit, which should keep the national press off his back for a few weeks.

Continue reading our race rankings.

A Different Republican Party

Here are some of the highlights from GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio's mammoth survey of Republicans.

First, compared to 1997, when Fabrizio last surveyed a sample this size, more Republicans describe themselves as conservatives. The average Republican is older, attends church one a week, is a little less Protestant, a little more Catholic, or -- a lot more "other".

According to Fabrizio, the party’s social/cultural wing remains about the same size, while the economic wing has “shrunk by nearly two thirds.” Replacing those Republicans have been national security and defense voters. Free marketeers, per Fabrizio, comprise about 8 percent of the GOP electorate. They’re skeptical of government action, largely male, baby-boomerish, less frequent church-goers, and they’re not moralists. Fabrizio believes that these voters comprise Fred Thompson’s strongest voting block.

Then there are the Bush hawks – 20 percent of the Republican party, again, mostly males, they love Bush, they believe in the quest to spread democracy overseas, and many are new to the GOP.

The opposite, in some ways, of the Bush hawks are what Fabrizio’s taxonomy calls the “Fortress America” crowd, or what we used to refer to as the Buchanan Brigades. 8 percent of the party, they’re protectionist, anti-illegal immigration, and want to end the war in Iraq. They ain’t Bushies. Fabrizio says that nearly 50% of these voters hail from the south.

Then there’s one of John McCain’s strongest groups – the “Gov Knows Best GOPers”. They’re focused on “social” issues (as opposed to “cultural” issues). They’re lifelong GOPers and believe that government can and should intervene to solve social and environmental problems. They tend to have a libertarian streak and many aren’t comfortable with sky-high defense spending. This group is disproportionately female and coastal in geography.

The moralists are the largest chunk of the party – 24% in Fabrizio’s reckoning. In many ways, the media uses this group as a synecdoche for the entire GOP base. The moralists are strongly partisan, they’re very conservative, they have a lower average income than the rest of the party, mostly female and have the highest share of homemakers.

What issues circumscribe Republicans today? 36% are focused on the War on Terror and Iraq. 9 percent are driven primarily by immigration, 5 percent primarily by family values, and five percent primarily by tax cuts.

Some other nuggets:

53% of Republicans say that issue positions are more important to them than leadership qualities. Moralists are more concerned about issues than any other subgroup.

53%t agree with this statement: “The Republican Party has spent too much time focusing on moral issues such as abortion and gay marriage and should instead be spending time focusing on economic issues such as taxes and government spending”.

74% believe that Pres. Bush made the right call in Iraq.

Farbizio concludes that the is GOP united in:

– Desire to balance the budget – Belief that government spends too much – Belief that taxes are too high – Belief that federal government is too big and does too many things – Belief that current immigrations laws should be followed and no special treatment – War in Iraq was the right decision – Belief that our Foreign Policy should be based on our own security and economic interests – Support of employment non-discrimination for gays.

** Even 60 percent of moralists believe that private businesses should not have the right to discriminate against gay people.

There’s division in the GOP on–

Top priority – cutting taxes or balancing budget – Whether health care coverage is a right – Fund SS or allow private investment – Level of military/defense spending – Role of federal government in education – Allowing gays to serve in the military – Role of federal government on global warming – Private initiative vs. government safety net – Abortion – Influence of religion on public policy

Notebook: Thompson's South Carolina Consultant?

COLUMBIA -- Some items in the notebook:

-- Leading South Carolina Republican consultant Walter Whetsell was ubiquitous at today's GOP fundraiser featuring Fred Thompson. He even sported an "I'm With Fred" button. When one reported asked Whetsell whether he had signed on with Thompson, Whetsell demurred: "Not now." Whetsell, who is close to the SC GOP’s state chairman, specializes in direct mail and has worked on a host of state legislative races. He is a consultant for the non-partisan “Ed In 2008” campaign. Thompson aides have also been talking to consultant Rod Shealy, who somehow managed to convince South Carolinians to re-elect their colorful lieutenant governor despite the latter’s penchant for violating state speed laws and for precipitating the occasional plane crash. Shealy is known outside South Carolina for this.

-- Unaffiliated insiders say that Mitt Romney has built the strongest statewide organization, followed closely by Sen. John McCain. Rudy Giuliani’s efforts in South Carolina are just now ramping up; a new communications director, Braden Bunch, the research director for Gov. Mark Sanford’s re-election campaign. Braden’s boss on the campaign was Jason Miller, who now works in Giuliani’s New York press shop.

-- Giuliani had a rough week of press in the state; his state campaign chairman was indicted on cocaine distribution charges, and the replacement, the chairman’s father, Arthur Ravenel, has a seems to have a penchant for controversial comments.

--SC GOP chairman Katon Dawson tells me he will “definitely” move the party’s primary from January 29 to … he’s not sure how much earlier, but Republicans believe he could choose Jan. 15 as the date.

Robert Traynham Joins Team Thompson

COLUMBIA -- An aide to Fred Thompson confirmed that Republican strategist Robert Traynham has joined the campaign as a senior adviser. Traynham was Sen. Rick Santorum's long-time communications director and held a variety of senior positions with the Senate Republican Conference.

Thompson Supports Flag Compromise, Acknowledges Supreme Court Campaign Finance Ruling

COLUMBIA -- Sen. Fred Thompson avoided wading into the state's perennial debate over the a Confederate flag that used to fly over the capitol building here by agreeing with how South Carolinians settled the issue: they took the flag off the flagpole at the state capitol building and moved it down the steps to a memorial.

And, addressing Monday's Supreme Court ruling on the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform act, Thompson said that while he remained a supporter of the bill and its intentions, he thought the court's decision was sensible because, he implied, the sham issue ad provision "hasn't worked" as intended.

"I think Congress ought to amend the campaign finance legislation, keep the good parts, and get rid of this part."

Also, Thompson, a former lobbyist, Senate and Washington lawyer, admitted that he's no outsider. "I've never used the word 'outsider," he said.

Thompson's South Carolina Debut Well Received

Listening to South Carolina Republicans chew on Fred Thompson, one's reminded of the segue scenes in "King of the Hill" where Hank and friends stand on the sidewalk, beer in hand, mutter "Yep" and contemplate the world."

"Good ol' Fred."

"Yep."

"Good ol' Fred." Gonna save the party.

State Sen. Larry Grooms was more enthusiastic. “He’s going to be the next president,” Brooks replied.

Thompson blew into Columbia this morning for a test of the warm South Carolina waters. He brought his wife, Jeri, and young daughter, in tow.

“It’s the day, “ he said to a reporter who had asked whether he’d announce. “But it’s not THE day.” That will come in July. Thompson has to be very careful: if he utters the magic words – “I’m going to run” – then he has ten days to give the Federal Election Commission due notice. So he and his advisers are quick to say, when asked why Thompson was here, that he was simply invited to attend a fundraiser.

At a private breakfast with top South Carolina Republican donors, Thompson said it was not his ambition to become president, but that circumstances had a way of working themselves out. He took questions on immigration, tax reform and nuclear power.

Later, speaking to Republicans at a 50-dollar-a-plate lunch, Thompson was on the ball. He spent the bulk of his speech on terrorism, Iraq and immigration. The substance was about what you'd expect from a conservative candidate, but Thompson, for the time I've seen, seemed jazzed up. And the crowd reciprocated with several loud bursts of applause.

"We're can't be talking serious about national security while that's going on," he said. He introduced a new metaphor for immigration. America, he said, "is our home." "And we get to decide who gets to go into our home." More applause.

Scant mention of faith and religion and cultural issues. Thompson said that the guiding principles that made "America the most prosperous nation in the world" are "strong institutions, basic beliefs, the rule of law, a free market system..."

He didn't quite say it, but I got the feeling that Thompson wants to distinguish himself from other Republicans by presenting himself as the leader for the long-term, the guy who can see around corners, who basis his road map for the future on the principles and values that made America great in the past.

A standing ovation.

Obama Counterprograms The Clintons In Iowa

As Sen. Hillary Clinton campaigns in five Iowa cities with husband Bill next week, Sen. Barack Obama won't let the Clintons have the state all to themselves -- not even a populous slice of its eastern half. On Tuesday, Obama begins a two-day bus tour that winds through Keokuk, Mt. Pleasant, Fairfield, Oskaloosa, Pella and Beaversale. At points, he'll be less than an hour away from the Clintons.

The Clintons begin their Iowa journey on Monday night.

HillaryHub Highlights Obama's Swipe

Kind of interesting...

The Clinton campaign's Hillary Hub is highlighting Sen. Barack Obama's "experience" swipe... Recent polls show that Dems overwhelmingly find Clinton to be their field's most experienced candidate.

Chris Benoit, Murderer

And now it looks like Chris Benoit led a tortuous, rageful life, and ended by choking his wife and smothering his young son. The WWE spent three hours on cable Monday night eulogizing him, glorifying him, tenderly recounting his love for his young family. Now it seems macabre.

Maybe Benoit's death is a black swan that has nothing to do with the corporate culture of WWE. We'll see. Faced with competition, professional wrestling strove to compete with the real thing, and its "sport entertainers," as chairman Vince McMahon began to refer to his performers, faced growing pressure to bulk up, to subject themselves to ever-more dangerous stunts and spots. At what cost? The company barely survived a steroid scandal a decade ago.

WWE is a public company now, a big Connecticut employer, and its stockholders have generally refrained from interfering with the product. That will change, I bet.

Quietly, Obama Tweaks An Iowa Ad

It's easy to miss, but if you screened the new television advertisements Sen. Barack Obama begins to air in Iowa today, you might catch it: yesterday, when copies of the ad "Carry" were distributed to the press, the ad featured, among other Obama supporters, Tom Balanoff, the president of the Service Employees International Union local 1, which includes Chicago. He's seen on camera praising Obama's work as a community organizer.

But Balanoff is not in the ad set for air today. Instead, he's been replaced by Jerry Kellman, who hired Obama to be a community organizer.

Dan Pfeiffer, an Obama spokesman, confirmed that the ad makers removed Balanoff.

"Tom Balanoff is a longtime friend and supporter who has appeared in other materials" for the campaign, Pfeiffer said in a statement. "He was in the spot to testify as to what happened to the South Side of Chicago when the steel mills closed ... On reflection, he was concerned that his role as a member of the executive board of the SEIU international might imply an endorsement before their decision has been made, so we substituted Jerry Kellman, who hired Bartack as a community organizer in the 80s."

Pfeiffer declined to elaborate beyond the confirmation and his statement.

It's fairly common for campaigns to tweak ads in midstream, but it's not terribly common for a campaign to switch out a validator. The same ad is unique because it features praise from a Republican state legislator who endorsed Sen, John McCain.

Columbia Prepares For Thompson

I'm headed to South Carolina to attend Fred Thompson's inaugural fundraiser on behalf of South Carolina Republicans, so posting will be light today.

A sign that Thompson is serious about Iowa: he's hired Andrew Dorr, a well-regarded former political director for Rep. Jim Nussle, to be his Midwest political director. No word yet on whether Thompson will participate in the Ames straw poll or when he'll first set foot in Iowa.

Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R-WA) endorses Mitt Romney. (She's a centrist).

Not a huge fan of national polls at this point, but since this column has been accused of cheerleading for John McCain, it cannot resist linking to Charlie Cook's write-up of his latest national poll; McCain is tied for first with Giuliani.

The left's politics of grievance: John Edwards is raising money off Ann Coulter.

Yesterday, Jonathan told you that the folks who benefit from the status quo are attacking John personally because they don't want the country to hear his message.

And you know what happened when we called them out? The attacks started pouring in.

That same day, the Ann Coulter-wannabe Michelle Malkin blasted John on her blog. Fox News has been bashing him around the clock. And Coulter herself said, "if I'm going to say anything about John Edwards in the future, I'll just wish he had been killed in a terrorist assassination plot."

That's the third fundraising appeal in three days.

Thompson Once Opposed "Sham" Issue Ads

In 2003, former Sen. Fred Thompson sharply criticized the sort of "sham issue ads," ostensibly banned by McCain-Feingold bill, that the Supreme Court appeared to revive in yesterday's Wisconsin Right to Life decision.

Thompson's view of those provisions are contained in an amicus brief he filed with the Court in 2003, when it first considered the constitutionality of the Bipartisan Campaign finance Reform Act (BCRA).

Thompson wrote that "sham issue advocacy by non-party groups" was a "problem" that BCRA "addresses." Congress, Thompson wrote, "had a compelling interest in enacting the BCRA reforms. The rapidly increasing practices of raising and spending soft money (with a significant focus on sham ‘issue ads’ that unquestionably influence federal elections) fully justify the BCRA reforms.”

Thompson refers to a series of television ads run by labor unions and national parties in the 1996 presidential election, ads he believed were "highly problematic in their own right because they were used to influence federal elections and not restricted to generic party-building uses" because they were funded from general treasuries -- that is, from soft money accounts.

It's not clear whether Thompson would have considered the Wisconsin Right To Life ad, which took aim at Sen. Russ Feingold's position on judicial nominations, to be a "sham ad."

(A spokesman for Thompson said last night that he had not yet taken a position on the Supreme Court's decision).

Rudy Giuliani, who has favored generic campaign finance reform legislation in the past, praised yesterday's ruling as a victory for free speech.

The court ruled yesterday that so long as an ad can be reasonably interpreted as having some other purpose than targeting a specific lawmaker for election or defeat, the admaker should be given the benefit of the doubt.

Proponents of campaign finance reform concede that the court has opened a major loophole through which virtually any ad run by unions, corporations or non-party entities can be funded from unregulated sources of cash and can be broadcast close to an election or primary.

Thompson was an early achitect of campaign finance legislation. In a Senate press release announcing the bill's introduction, Thompson said that the politicians" must get back to winning elections not on the basis of who can raise the most money, but on the basis of the competition of ideas."

A senior aide to Sen. John McCain recalls that Thompson often telephoned McCain to plot strategy for moving the bill through Congress and that Thompson even helped to author several key planks of what later became the BCRA bill. He later served as one of the bill's chief whips on the floor.

In 1997, Thompson used a Senate government affairs committee hearing to probe the electioneering of National Right to Life and other groups, and his subpoena request for internal NRTL documents was strongly resisted by counsel -- including James Bopp, Jr., who now advises Mitt Romney.

In 2001, Thompson told National Journal's Congress Daily that he wished his "name would be mentioned more often" in discussions about the bill. And in 2002, he praised Pres., Bush for "courage" in signing the bill over Republican opposition.

For conservative donors, Republican party functionaries in the states and in Washington, and for supporters and patrons of Washington's conservative interest groups, McCain's advocacy of campaign finance reform legislation has become a synecdoche for his willingness to subordinate the financial and political health of his party to his own political beliefs. Fundamentally, they argue that most forms of campaign finance legislation restricts political speech. Thompson disagreed, telling an interviewer in 2000 that the legislation "doesn't cut down on anybody's free speech at all."

Fortunately for Thompson, campaign finance has little resonance outside the precincts of party professionals and fundraisers. Additionally, he has not acquired a reputation for bucking his party leadership or for going out of his way to anger the conservative intellectual elites who influence base opinion.

And there are signs that Thompson is backing away from his belief in the efficacy of the legislation. He told the Wall Street Journal's John Fund last month that while he wasn't prepared to renounce his earlier views, " I wonder if we shouldn’t just take off the limits and have full disclosure with harsh penalties for not reporting everything on the Internet immediately."

In private meetings with Republican donors, Thompson said he worried about BCRA's effect on the political parties' ability to compete financially with better-funded third party groups.

If he turns his around entirely, he risks being tagged as a panderer. Romney once supported stringent limits on political finance activity, although his campaign insists that he never specifically supported the thrust of BCRA.

Not Zagat's(tm) Guide To Political Advertising: John Edwards In New Hampshire

"STRENGTH OF AMERICA" (out of three)

Production Values      Message      Impact       Cost

3.0                     2.0          2.0           TBA

"Evocative, pastoral" images fill this "general election-esque" new ad of John Edwards. An ad nicely "matched" for this "change" election. Edwards is shot "from down below," and a spotlight gives his head an "angelic glow." The "future-oriented" message should "appeal to independents" but "lacks" any specific policy details. One wag wonders "when Elizabeth" will "appear in an ad for Edwards."

A Professional Wrestler Is Murdered

Chris Benoit, the pro wrestler found murdered in his Fayetteville, Georgia home last night, was one of the reasons why professional wrestling, despite its ridiculous pretenses and bewilderingly predictable storylines, remains popular, profitable and culturally relevant.

I grew up a fan of wrestling and still admit to checking a pro-wrestling website from time to time. Not really sure why I enjoy watching it; I can come up with a string of theories as to why the WWE and its various competitors attract millions of fans: escapism, primal-rage satisfaction, morality-play substitution, soap operas for guys, homoerotic frustrations, cultural traditions, the will to violence. Maybe it's the athleticism -- a unique combination of genuine athletic skill, agility, grace, and acting. Consider: Ultimate Fighting Champsionship -- which is really real -- is a bit more bloody and not nearly as fun to watch. The wrestlers mostly spend their time locking one another in painful holds, rolling around on the mat, and trying to put those painful holds on the other guy.

Maybe it's the possibility, however faint, that we'll see something "real" -- someone get hurt, someone start to close his punches -- the NASCAR crash phenomenon.

A really good wrestler like Benoit can make even the most jaded fan suspend disbelief for just a few seconds. Benoit was characterized as a "scientific wrestler," which really meant that his performance skills blended a mix of Olympic (ironically, "amateur"-style) grappling with an unmatched ability to sell his interaction with other wrestlers. He was built like a pit-bull, and even he looked a little like one: he had a small, pug face that looked as if it were smushed into his neck. Speaking of necks, he was fond of breaking them -- he was probably the only active wrestler whose career survived these accidental injuries he inflicted upon others.

A horrible irony: the script for Monday night's World Wrestling Entertainment broadcast was supposed to feature a three-hour "commemoration" of the WWE's chairman, Vince McMahon, who was "killed" by a car bomb two weeks ago. McMahon, of course, was very much alive. At the beginning of tonight's Raw, a red-eyed, haggard-looking McMahon informed fans that Benoit had died, and that the night's broadcast would feature a real, tribute to Benoit.

No Reaction From Thompson On Campaign Finance

Checking this evening with a spokesman for Sen. Fred Thompson.

So far, no reaction about today's Supreme Court decision on campaign finance.

Thompson was one of the key architects of the bill that later became known as "McCain-Feingold."

A Dead Heat In Iowa Among Democrats

Bill Richardson's pollster, Paul Maslin, makes an interesting claim in a fundraising e-mail:

The Governor has rocketed up 10% among likely Iowa caucusgoers in just three months, and now stands at 13%. No other Democratic candidate has made gains anywhere close to that over the same time period. In fact, amongst the likeliest caucusgoers (those who attended the 2004 caucuses, voted in the 2006 primary and are definite to attend next year's caucus) the Governor has overtaken Senator Obama for 3rd place. [EMPHASIS ADDED]

Not entirely sure where he's getting that.

A new Mason-Dixon poll of Iowa shows the top three candidates -- not Richardson -- in a virtual dead heat.

A new Mason-Dixon poll shows that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are all in a dead heat in Iowa. But the actual leader in the survey is someone who isn't even running -- and isn't even a person: It's "undecided".

In the poll -- which was taken of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers from June 13-16, and which has a margin of error of +/- 5% -- Clinton is at 22%, Edwards is at 21%, and Obama is at 18%. Richardson comes in fourth at 6%, and Biden gets 4%; no other Dem gets more than 2%. But a whopping 27% say they are undecided.

On the Republican side, Romney has the clear lead at 25% (even over "undecided," which checks in at 21%). He's followed by Thompson at 17%, Giuliani at 15%, Huckabee at 7%, and McCain and Brownback at 6% each.

BTW: will Richardson raise more than John Edwards? Our Richardson sources are waving us away from that insinuation.

With Romney's Check, Campaign's Quarter Predicted To Exceed $20M

A week after tamping down fundraising expectations, donors close to the high command of ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney are predicting that he'll raise close to $20M this quarter.

Talk about a green monster: 1,000 Romney fans showed up last night at Fenway Park. 600 fundraisers are spending their full day collecting donations for Romney -- they've been given the goal of $5000 each. Assuming that half the donors reach their goal, that'll net Romney a cool $1.5M.

Romney today told reporters that he would contribute his own money to the campaign. An aide to Romney said that the fundraising total would exceed $20M only with Romney's contribution. The indefatigable Jonathan Martin is blogging the day over at the Politico.

I'm a little gun-shy about my earlier prediction that Sen. John McCain will raise more than $13M; I'm not sure how low expectations deserve to be. McCain's campaign manager noted today in a fundraising e-mail that McCain "does not rely on big money contributions from Washington lobbyists and power brokers; he relies on contributions from hard-working supporters like you. That is why we need your help today." McCain hasn't lost fundraisers, but his fundraisers are having trouble convincing their friends to write checks to his campaign, which is regularly and unintelligently declared "dead" by elites on a daily basis. On the day a London newspaper owned by Rupert Murdoch declared McCain's candidacy all but dead, McCain was endorsed by Greenville, SC mayor Knox White. Some hearts are still beating.

I'm now able to slightly refine what I think ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will raise: between $14M and $16M.

As usual, look to the burn rate -- or, as Romney's team likes to call it -- the investment rate.

McCain's ratio of cash in to cash out was about 1 to 0.7. Since then, his campaign's pared about 50 jobs and has set a goal of spending half of what they raised. They've also deferred some of their state campaign expenses until the fall.

Giuliani ended last quarter with about $11M; assuming a burn rate of 50%, he'd end up with about 16M on hand. McCain's cash-on-hand total was by far the lowest of his two top-ticket rivals; if he raises $13M and spends $6.5M, he'd finish the quarter with a respectable $12M on hand -- not spectacular, but acceptable enough.

Some Changes In Obama's Communication Shop

From the start, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign has, for its media strategy, favored the long ball over minutia and tactics. When confronted with a charge from an opponent, Obama's aides would generally respond only when the accusation was manifestly unfair -- or if it repeated a direct falsehood about Obama's life, such as when Fox News repeated unfounded rumors that he was part-Muslim.

Occasionally, the aggressive push-back of the Clinton and Edwards campaigns -- both of whom have all-hours warroom operations -- has caused Obama to stumble.

Now the Obama campaign wants to better prepare itself for these day-to-day skirmishes.

Democrats familiar with Obama's operation said the campaign is looking to hire several Democrats with press and research experience who would man a 24/7 "warroom" operation.

Also, Dan Pfeiffer, formerly a senior adviser to Tom Daschle and Evan Bayh, has been brought back from the road to oversee the day-to-day communications planning.

Robert Gibbs, Obama's director of communications and one of his closest aides, will spend more time on the road with Obama to hone his message. Gibbs will work with campaign strategist David Axelrod on big-picture strategy and messaging.

An Obama spokesman declined to comment on internal campaign matters.

On Obama's New Ads

A side note: not only does one of Obama's first television ads feature a Republican validator -- State Sen. Kirk Dillard ... he was a registered lobbyist who supports Sen. John McCain.

Bipartisan message ads like this work in New Hampshire... they're not seen all the much in Iowa, where the Democratic caucus electorate is (a) Democratic and (b) partisan.

Richardson: I'd Quiz On Roe v. Wade

IowaPolitics.com:

On Friday, N.M. Gov. Bill Richardson, speaking to a crowd of more than 150 in Des Moines, discussed what kind of Supreme Court judges he would nominate if elected president. He stressed the importance of selecting judges who were distinguished scholars who would uphold American’s constitutional rights and said he would partially base his decision on their opinions of Roe v. Wade.

“I would say, 'Do you believe Roe vs. Wade is settled law?'” the governor said. “If they say yes, they have a good chance of getting picked. ... I say this because, you know, we always dance around this issue.”

Here's an audio clip with the quote in context.

Obama Won't Speak To ALEC

The Progressive States Network, which is setting itself up to be a liberal alternative to the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), is urging Sen. Barack Obama to reject an ALEC invitation to speak before its annual meeting in Philadelphia.

Fear not -- "We were never going and never considered [it,]" says Dan Pfeiffer, an Obama spokesman.

What Is Rupert Murdoch's Tabloid Trying To Do?

A Times of London article quotes Dan Schnur and Randy Pullen as suggesting that Sen. John McCain might drop out by the fall.

Pullen is one of McCain's biggest critics; Schnur is a former McCain communications director. Neither have much standing to predict what McCain will do.

Supreme Court Clarifies Part Of McCain-Feingold

As expected, a 5 to 4 majority of the Court this morning clarified a flashy, if less-than-critical part of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance legislation this morning. The Court ruled that Wisconsin Right To Life was within its first amendment rights to broadcast a television ad that mentioned Sen. Russ Feingold by name, even though Feingold was up for re-election that year and the ad was broadcast within 60 days of the general election.

James Bopp, Jr., the plaintiff's attorney, said

"Today the U.S. Supreme Court created a safe harbor for grassroots lobbying from the blackout period created by the "electioneering communication" prohibition in McCain-Feingold."

The Court did NOT overturn the electioneering communications provisions in toto, although three of the eight justices wanted the Court to do so. But it did create a safe harbor provision for "genuine" issue ads. The blackout provisions -- the 30/60 day bans on corporate treasury-funded ads -- only apply if the ad allows no "reasonable interpretation other than as an appeal to vote for or against a specific candidate." That's a pretty broad harbor, in my opinion.

Romney gloats; McCain winces; Republicans exult; Fred Thompson.... ???

More later.

Obama's First Television Ads A Test Of Message

Tomorrow, Barack Obama's campaign launches a fairly frugal series of televison ads with a goal to remind Iowa caucus goers about Obama's biography, answering the "who" question, and connecting his life to his concrete campaign promises -- the "why" question.

One ad, "Choices," describes Obama's post-graduate work as a community organizer and notes that he refused lucrative law firm offers to help working class families instead. The other ad, "Carry," centers on his eight years in the Illinois legislature. Both seem targeted to appeal to mixed-gender, economically-oriented, class-sensitive Democratic caucus audience.

A campaign spokesman said the size of the buy is "low-level," and "modest," and would not elaborate. Those two adjectives generally describe ad buys that reach less than 50% of the voter pool -- about 500 gross ratings points, in TV jargon.

Two other Democrats -- Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd -- are broadcasting their own ads in Iowa.

But unlike Richardson and Dodd, Obama doesn't really need to introduce himself: his ads supplement a month's worth of voter contacts that began with a mass mailing of DVD biographies, followed by a day-long canvass that knocked on 30,000 doors.

Of course, the ads will be repeated ad nauseum on national cable television as well as in Iowa spot markets, so their actual reach will be magnified considerably.

Obama's opponents will be eager to suggest that the campaign's early advertisements suggest they are worried about how where Obama stands in the first in the nation contest, so the Obama campaign is going out of its way to de-emphasize the relative importance of the ad buy in the matrix of campaign activities.

Here is how a background memo describes the purpose of the ads:

The ads focus on Obama's commitment to the power of grassroots movements and his success in bringing people together to solve important challenges. By demonstrating how Obama has successfully dedicated his life to these values, Iowa voters will better understand that Obama's vision for bringing the country together to solve important problems is not just campaign rhetoric. For him, it's been a way of life. The ads will show what Obama will do as President after they learn more about what he's already done.

What You Missed Over The Weekend

Elizabeth Edwards breaks with spouse, endorses gay marriage

48 hours after story is knocked down, Drudge falsely reports that Fred Thompson will announce this week

The Boston Globe begins its biographical vet of Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney. Highly recommended.

Rudy v. Christie Todd Whitman on air quality at ground zero.

From Hair To Hair Cut: Attacks On Edwards Evolve

From the latest fundraising appeal sent by the Edwards campaign -- this one's in the name of deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince:

Like many of you, I've been with John since 2004. The same folks who are attacking him now went after him then. You know why? Because the Bush inner circle sensed what the polls tell us today—that John Edwards is the best general election candidate we've got. Last time they attacked his hair; this time it's his haircut. But it's the same sad game. And this time, we can beat it.

From The Academy: Does An Additional Year Of Education Correlate With A Higher Chance Of Voting?

Steven Tenn, writing in Political Analysis on "The Effect of Education on Voter Turnout" finds that an additional year of schooling --- say, one year of college -- has no significant effect on voter turnout. That is -- even if the population at large advances its average education by a year, voter turnout will stay much the same. So why does education correlate with turnout? Tenn theorizes that some other factor must be at work.

Gus Vander Jagt

I missed the news that former Michigan congressman Guy Vander Jagt died last week at age 75.

As NRCC chair in the 70s, he hired and trained some of the best in the biz; he was in some ways the mentor to a large number of Republican operatives who are influential today, including:

Pollsters Ed Goeas, Brian Tringali, Dave Sackett. Bill McInturff, Glen Bolger, Linda DiVall and David Winston; media strategists Bill Greener, Jim Innocenzi, Rich Galen, Barrie Tron, Russ Schrieffer, Dan Mattoon, consultants Carlyle Gregory, Scott Cottington, Kenny Klinge, Sam Dawson , Jim Weber, Mark Maddox, John Maddox. Leigh Ann Pusey,Tom Hockaday, Ann McCord as well as ex-Sen. Spencer Abraham and NRCC chair Rep. Tom Cole.

Thompson Won't Announce On Tuesday

That's the big rumor, and one Nashville TV says Fred Thompson is.

But Thompson spokesman Mark Corallo says "no," he is not.

The Altantic's Bravest**

** Wherein New York's Bravest is the moniker for the Dept. of Corrections, this is my weekly corrections column.

1. In a post today, I miswrote the first name of Rudy Giuliani's director of strategy. He is Brent Seaborn, not Jason Seaborn. Although he looks like a Jason.

2. In a post Tuesday, I wrote that Mitt Romney placed second in a 2003 straw poll. That's incorrect: the correct year was 2006. I should know; I ran the straw poll. Incidentally, Romney did place second in a 2003 straw poll -- it was at the Northern Liberal Leadership Conference. KIDDING. Just Kidding, Romney campaign. Late Friday humor, not funny, move on.

3. At some point below, I mispelled the last name of Jay Garrity, the Romney aide who's taken a leave of absence. Hope I'm not arrested.

4. In an early version of a post about the 1992 election, I somehow had it in my head that Arkansas featured a large population of black Democrats. The truth, as I knew, of course, but was brought to the fore of my attention by a competitor, is that Arkansas has the highest percentage of white voters of all the Southern states.

Apologies for all these errors.

The Daily.. Show?

Did Edwards use an anti-poverty non-profit to bone up on foreign policy and prepare his 2008 run? That's the implication of a fairly surprising (in that it is both fair, and, can be read as surprising only if you haven't been following Edwards for a while ) New York Times story. It's getting traction: it was the top story on Memeorandum all morning. And the AP, suspciously, seemed to have the same story at the same time. When that happens, you can usually bet your sweet sammy that another campaign seeded the idea with the reporters.

Elizabeth Edwards attends gay pride. What's she gonna wear on Folson Street, I wonder?

Maybe Mitt Romney's favorite book should be "Alice In Wonderland."

Did John McCain's campaign gin up the story about Romney operative Jay Garrity? A case can be made that this case is logically difficult to sustain.

Jake Tapper gets to the bottom of the conservative fantasy that Hillary Clinton wants to regulate talk radio. And James Inhofe needs better ear-glasses.

Obama-Bloomberg? Can Bloomberg handle being second?

Fred Thompson's attending his first major rally in Tennessee on Tuesday. He's in South Carolina Wednesday and New Hampshire Thursday.

Speaking of Tennessee: it looks like Sen. Lamar Alexander might be in trouble...

Athiests and agnostics are coming out of the shadows.

A Giuliani Campaign Official Responds Re: A Line Item Veto

Original post:

Response:

-- The Mayor has consistently supported the idea of a line-item veto.

-- The Mayor believes that the way we got there in the ‘90’s upended the balance of power and violated the separation boundaries. He wasn’t opposing the idea of the line-item veto, he was opposing the way we got there.

-- When discussing the separation of powers issue, the Mayor is not expressing whether the line-item veto is a good thing or a bad thing, he’s simply expressing that he doesn’t think it’s constitutional unless it’s enacted via constitutional amendment – he’s not talking about his sentiments (i.e. – the line-item veto being “bad” or “good”), he’s talking about the constitutionality of how it was enacted.

-- This problem (i.e. – “how we got there” back in the ‘90’s) will be fixed if we bring about the line-item veto by passing a constitutional amendment – here is a quote from the Mayor on this topic from 1998:

* GIULIANI: “I agree with the line-item veto. As a legal matter, I think it can only be done, however, with a constitutional amendment. That is a distinction that's an enormously important one. To have a line-item veto fundamentally alters the balance of power between the president and the Congress, and the president and the Congress are not allowed to fundamentally alter the balance of power between them without getting a constitutional amendment, and as the judge pointed out -- and I sympathize with this -- this may be more efficient, more effective, may even be a better policy, but the president and the Congress do not have the power to fundamentally alter the separation of powers between the two branches. This should have been done by constitutional amendment.” (Lou Dobbs, “Giuliani Discusses Line-Item Veto,” CNN, February 12, 1998)

Steady As She Goes There, Seaborn

While the race has tightened and our campaign has been challenged, we continue to lead in public opinion polling and we are now a better defined campaign than when this race began in February. Americans hold a clear view of Mayor Giuliani. As our supporters better understand Mayor Giuliani, their support for him strengthens and intensifies. Through the summer the Mayor will continue to drive his message, define himself and set the agenda for this campaign.

That's the conclusion of Giuliani strategy memo in a missive sent to the campaign's e-mail list. Read the whole thing after the jump. Director of Strategy Brent Seaborn expects further national poll tightening over the summer and wonders whether the bottom will fall out for one of the four leading candidates.

Continue reading "Steady As She Goes There, Seaborn" »

Does The South Control Politics?

My take on the "Does The South Control Politics" debate: I'm not sure we can make too much from the argument that the country has chosen the Southerner five times out of seven in the modern era. Seven is a very small sample! And several of the examples -- like when Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976 -- are much more easily attributed to historical context. (For years later, Carter lost to a Californian. With an independent in the race picking off votes in mostly Dem states.

Then there is the equation, as Paul Waldman writes, of Southernness with authenticity, which is, I would argue, actually an equation of rural life with the "authentic" American experience. In the popular imagination, Southerness is equivalent to temperamental conservatism; and historically, with anti-elitism; even conservatives can't deny that a primary motivator of Republican base voters in cycles past has been their disgust at coastal, megalopolisial elites. I often think that political folks confuse the geographic South with the cultural Souths, plural; the go-getter urbanity of Atlanta and Louisville, small towns in Southern Illinois, deep rural North Carolina, Mississippi, Florida -- it's very hard to reduce the essence of these variable regions to a few specific traits.

Also, as Dan Larison notes, there is the brute fact that the South (and Southwest) have been growing more rapidly than the rest of the country. That's why the number of Southern congressional seats relative to the Northeast has risen over 30 years.

I'm interested in the question of just what in Southern states' political culture produces a brand of presidential nominee that others find attractive. It may be how much control they have over their states: southern states tend to have stronger executive branches than Northern states - think of Florida and Mississippi as compared to New Jersey.

Finally, as to the question of whether Northerners condescend to Southerners in politics: yes -- in the same way that Southerners condescend to Northerners. But I'd bet you'd find that the attitudes of urban dwellers in Raleigh are more similar to urban dwellers in Boston than they are to, say, residents in the exurbs of Orangeburg, SC.

Where's Lincoln?

An impressive list of Arkansas Dems endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton on the eve of her visit to the state, including Sen. Mark Pryor, who is up for re-election. Absent from the list: Sen. Blanche Lincoln.

See the list after the jump.

Continue reading "Where's Lincoln?" »

Romney's "Trooper" Takes Leave Of Absence From Campaign

Per a Romney campaign aide:

"Jay Garrity has taken a leave of absence from the campaign to address these complaints."

Garrity has retained a lawyer, Stephen Jones, to resolve the pending legal action against him.

The Millennials And The Vote

Andrew Sullivan is in one sense correct: traditionally, the youngest cohort of voters dont' show up at the polls. But the past two election cycles seem to be the start of a new trend: in '04, the percentage of 18 to 24 year olds rose by, I think I'm remembering this correctly, 11 percent, far exceeding the turnout increases among other age groups. True -- they still vote at lower average rates, but it's not possible to dismiss their influence in close elections anymore.

A worrisome sign for Republicans: as John Judis and Ruy Teixiera note in the latest American Prospect, these millennials are much more Democratically-inclined than Generation X was: they cite a Pew survey showing that 60% of 18-29-year olds voted for the Democratic candidate in '06.

To Andrew's point: in primaries, the Millennials matter more in some states rather than others. Iowa is the oldest state in the union, demographically; young Republicans typically don't caucus in numbers proportionate to their strength. New Hampshire is different, although young independents are probably inclined to vote for Democrats in 2008.

A Reset: Obama's Government Reform Proposals

Barack Obama's government reform proposal unveiled today in Manchester seems designed to one-up the proposals offered recently by Hillary Clinton -- like an airline slashing its fares to bear its competitor.

In light of recent events, Obama's "different campaign" looks a lot like a traditional campaign, and this speech, coming at the end of a rough week of press, seems to be an attempt at a reset.

(Update: I am told that, no, this speech was planned for months and that I'm reading way too much into things).

Where Clinton only prohibits her cabinet from lobbying, Obama prohibits all political appointees from lobbying. He also has a pre-employment ban for political appointees -- that is, you can't lobby your former employers either.

Clinton does not have a gift ban for executive branch employees; Obama does.

Obama's proposals also have some gimmicks: he'll post all bills he plans to sign on his website 5 days before he signs them. And he'll require his cabinet to hold broadband town hall meetings. Also, he'll make use of the OMB website to catalogue tax breaks and ear mark requests.

When I am President, I will make it absolutely clear that working in an Obama Administration is not about serving your former employer, your future employer, or your bank account – it’s about serving your country, and that’s what comes first. When you walk into my administration, you will not be able to work on regulations or contracts directly related to your former employer for two years. And when you leave, you will not be able to lobby the Administration throughout the remainder of my term in office.

A lot of people have told me this is pretty tough, but I refuse to accept the Washington logic that you cannot find thousands of talented, patriotic Americans willing to devote a few years to their country without the promise of a lucrative lobbying job after they’re done. I know we can find them, and in my administration, we will.

When there is a bill that ends up on my desk as President, you will have five days to look online and find out what’s in it before I sign it. When there are meetings between lobbyists and a government agency, we won’t be going to the Supreme Court to keep it secret like Dick Cheney and his energy task force, we’ll be putting them up on the Internet for every American to watch. And instead of allowing lobbyists to slip big corporate tax breaks into bills during the dead of night, we will make sure every single tax break and earmark is available to every American online. This builds on the “Google for Government” law I passed in Congress, which already allows you to see every contract, every grant, every dime of federal spending online.

Speaking of Giuliani

He's joining John Edwards and Chris Dodd at the memorial services for the 9 Charleston, South Carolina firefighters.

Giuliani Remains Loyal To A Priest Accused Of Molesting Boys And A Cover-Up

Rudy Giuliani's consulting firm, Giuliani Partners, has for years employed a Catholic priest who was accused by a grand jury of orchestrating the over-up of nearly 60 separate molestations allegations -- a priest who allegedly partook of the activities himself. The priest, Alan Placa, is one of Giuliani's oldest friends; in turn, Giuliani has become Placa's highest-profile defender.

This is a remarkable story about how, for Giuliani, the bonds of friendship can survive even the highest levels of moral radioactivity. If the court documents are accurate, if the allegations are true, even in part, it's also the story of a very troubled priest who abused the trust of his young charges.

I first learned about this story earlier this year, when Giuliani opponents circulated a Newsday article at the Conservative Political Action Conference. Today, Salon fills in some of the blanks.

The basic facts are as follows.

At the height of the molestation scandal that damaged the Catholic Church in 2002, Monsignor Placa was accused by two former students of having touched them inappropriately while serving as Dean of Students at a Long Island seminary school in the 1970s. One student alleged that Placa fondled him while the two were creating banners for a Nat'l Right To Life event. Placa denied the charges. Shortly there after, a second former student alleged that Placa repeatedly groped him while the two would read the New York Times.

Placa grew up with Rudy Giuliani, was " the best man for his first marriage, baptized his children, helped him annul his first marriage and buried his mother," according to Newsday. And after the diocese forced Placa to temporarily resign his position until the charges against him were resolved, Giuliani gave him a plum assignment at Giuliani Partners, where he remains employed.

If that's where it ended, Giuliani could say that he was simply standing by an old friend who was innocent.

But in 2003, a grand jury concluded that Placa was at the center of a diocese-wide effort to cover up nearly 60 allegations of sexual abuse by its priests. Here's the grand jury report -- you can read it for yourself. Placa is "Priest F," according to numerous published reports.

Per the National Catholic Reporter:

The report documents allegations of the rape of cheerleaders and altar boys, of acts of molestation and seductions in churches, rectories, on camping trips, and in the homes of the minors who were abused. It tells of instances in which priests provided minors with pornography and alcohol, and of cases in which the diocese received allegations and didn’t report them to police, but instead transferred the accused priests to other parishes.

Newsday elaborated:

Routinely, the report said, Placa dragged out cases to make legal redress difficult. Victims were often ‘ignored, belittled and revictimized. In some cases, the grand jury finds that the diocese procrastinated for the sole purpose of making sure that the civil and criminal statutes of limitation were no longer applicable.’ In one case … Placa reportedly told a nun who had brought together victims and their families that the meeting was a waste of time because the statute of limitations had expired

Additionally, the grand jury found two other boys who alleged that "Priest F" -- Placa, although he was not named -- had molested them. The grand jury found that Placa was "cautious but relentless" in "pursuing his victims."

Giuliani stood by Placa after the grand jury issued its report, and he stands by him now.

Placa was never charged; the statute of limitations had run out.

Again, Giuliani defended Placa against the sexual abuse allegations.

Salon has a more complete history of this case today, and it includes a confirmation from Giuliani Partners spokeswoman Sunny Mindel that Placa is still aboard and that Giuliani believes Placa to be innocent.

Bloomberg Hurts, Con't

Some Pollster.com numbers crunching suggests that he hurts Giuliani more than Clinton, at this point. I'm still skeptical.

Jay Garrity Is Not A Police Officer

Unidentified Romney operations guy, thy name is Jay Garrity.

And he allegedly has a history of fairly thuggish behavior, as the Boston Globe reveals today.

And the New Hampshire/Boston media is now very much interested in this story.

From WMUR, the only network affiliate in New Hampshire. New England Cable News. Fox in Boston.

This will end in one of four ways: Garrity will publicly apologize, resign, he'll be fired, or the press will hound Romney about this until option (a) or (b) is chosen.

The Daily Bam Bam Bigelow

Tomorrow morning, Sen. Obama delivers a speech on reforming the govenrment. This may step a bit on Hillary Clinton's "Walk It To Win It" weekend in New Hampshire.

Chuck Todd on Clinton:

The Clintons would have rallied the base in '04 in a way that they may not be able to rally in '08. If she comes up short in '08, I have no doubt there will be second-guessing among some Clinton partisans that maybe she ran in the wrong year.

Chuck's argument is that Clinton isn't radical enough for primary voters and isn't seen as enough of a change agent for general election voters. Not sure whether I agree or disagree.

BTW: it's cool of HillaryHub to feature a story that mentions the unmentionables.

The vice president's office does not believe it's in the executive branch, apparently. So just whose powers has Dick Cheney been fighting for all these years?

Former ABC Newser v. former ABC Newser. I'm not touching this one.

A blog war in South Carolina? Obama, Romney and Laurin Manning.

Soren Dayton on the upshot of the timeline for passage of an immigration bill:

The upshot is that the GOP candidates are going to get drilled on this through the primary season. It is clear what they would all like. After all, just one year ago, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, and Mike Huckabee all expressed support for solutions to the Senate bill. Only John McCain and Sam Brownback have had the courage of their convictions. The GOP candidates want to rail against the bill and have it pass.Then they get their private policy preference and an issue.

George Allen endorses Fred Thompson

Black holes can't form.

Scientists have nothing against journalists...except for the fact that we're journalists.

Edwards v. Romney, On Terror, Con't

A longer response to Edwards from Romney's Madden:

The very fact that John Edwards has to throw his hands up in the air and make “air quotes” when using the phrase War on Terror is indicative of just how woefully unprepared and unrealistic he is when it comes to recognizing the danger America faces with the threat of global terrorism. It’s the exact opposite of Governor Romney’s approach on foreign policy and national seciurity.

John Edwards and the rest of the Democratic presidential candidates have a weak knee world-view, and that should trouble Americans. Governor Romney presents a vision of strength built around vigorous intelligence and military alliances, while the Democrats talk about slinking away from our responsibilities as world leaders and instead assigning blame for the terror threats that are very real around the globe.

The choice between Governor Romney’s vision of a strong America and the Democrats’ pessimistic America couldn’t be clearer.

Lastly, Governor Romney’s new type of Marshall Plan idea and proposal predates John Edwards’ late attempt to seize upon it and claim it’s his.

New Hampshire Attorney General Decides To Look Into ... Goon-Gate?

Is that what we should call it? Per the AP:

The New Hampshire Attorney General's Office has opened an investigation into whether presidential hopeful Mitt Romney's staff might have made an illegal traffic stop, the same day a group of conservative activists with a connection to rival Sen. John McCain complained Thursday.

My theory is that the guy who told Leibovich that he'd run his plate was trying to scare Leibovich and didn't really run his plate. And there is some dispute about whether Leibovich was actually pulled over, formally. And this story really doesn't matter, but it's sure fun to write about.

On Terror, Does Edwards = Romney?

When, during the second Democratic presidential debate, Ex-Sen. John Edwards refused to acknowledge the existence of the War on Terror, what he really was denying, he has since said, is the Bush Doctrine Of Terror, which he claims is nothing but a politically pernicious chimera -- at best a set of military tactics and at worst a collection of domestic scare tactics. So Edwards has proposed what he calls a "strategy" to combat terror, which, he acknowledges, exists.

The war on terror is a slogan designed only for politics, not a strategy to make America safe. It’s a bumper sticker, not a plan. It has damaged our alliances and weakened our standing in the world. As a political “frame,” it’s been used to justify everything from the Iraq War to Guantanamo to illegal spying on the American people. It’s even been used by this White House as a partisan weapon to bludgeon their political opponents. Whether by manipulating threat levels leading up to elections, or by deeming opponents “weak on terror,” they have shown no hesitation whatsoever about using fear to divide.

A backgrounder sent around by Edwards's campaign included this sentence:

As commander-in-chief, Edwards will employ a more effective strategy to hunt down those who would threaten us, including Islamic extremists, and to shut down terrorism where it starts—in weak and failing states, which breed instability and radicalism. Edwards will:

In other words, Edwards is divorcing the concept of the "War on Terror" from the "war on terror."

Here is the Edwards "strategy":

- Rebalance our force structure for the challenges of the new century - Ensure our intelligence strategy adheres to proven and effective methods - Hold regular meetings with top military leadership - Create a “Marshall Corps” to stabilize weak and failing states - Rebuild equipment - Create a National Security Budget

The centerpiece of Edwards's plan is his "Marshall Corps," a force of 10,000 civillians and military professionals who would stabilize weakening and failed states.

Today, as noted below, Mitt Romney urged a "new course" for the War on Terror (he's ok with the capitlization), and proposed a "strategy" in place of tactics. And he has called for a "a new type of Marshall plan" that kinda seems to do what Edwards's Marshall Corps would do.

An Edwards campaign aide was incredulous. Are the two plans really that far apart? Was Romney's criticism of Edwards justified, given that their approaches seem similar?

I asked Romney's spokesman, Kevin Madden. He IMed: "Edwards chose to illuminate his naivete by saying thatthere was no war on terror. Governor Romney made it a point to recognize just how serious the challeneges are that we face and introduce his plan for combating radical jihadists around the globe."

"If anything," Madden continued, "they are polar opposites."

Certainly, Romney seems to support the Bush Doctrine where Edwards finds it a fake, although Romney suggests significant modifications and implicitly criticizes its lack of strategic vision. He identifies the threat more clearly that Edwards does: "radical jihadists."

One gets the sense that Romney's military would be more aggressive than Edwards's military. And their points of departure are totally different. For one thing, Edwards would pull out of Iraq, pronto. Romney wouldn't. Edwards opposes the Bush administration's NSA wiretapping regime; Romney supports it.

But without more detail from both men, I can't really predict how President Romney would handle any gathering terror threat differently than President Edwards would. Again, I -- we -- only have our gut sense, which is informed by our partisan inclinations, our experiences, and our perception of what makes these men tick.

That's why a candidate's characterological attributes are so important to presidential elections. They help us put their policies into context and provide us with a vantage point from which to evaluate their promises and approaches.

Rudy's Line Item Solution: Amend The Constitution

In Mayor Rudy Giuliani's "culture of spending" speech in Iowa yesterday, a clarion call for a constitutional amendment permitting a line-item veto was sounded.

Economic conservatives love that. There's an teensy-eensy political thorn for Rudy to remove: he's the guy responsible for killing the line item veto when Congress, through statute, gave that authority to President Clinton. When Clinton threatened to veto some New York Medicare "pork", Giuliani objected, the city sued, and the Supreme Court agreed with the city's argument that the line item veto was unconstitutional.

Continue reading "Rudy's Line Item Solution: Amend The Constitution" »

Another Reason Why Bloomberg Hurts The Democrat

A smart Democratic strategist e-mails:

"I can’t see how [as Bloomberg run] doesn’t hurt the Democrat, just be making us spend big in expensive Northeastern states. It seems like it kills HRC."

Where in the South can Bloomberg reasonably expect to win? How does he get to 270 electoral votes? What type of coalition can he build that would allow him to, in absence of a 270-electoral vote margin, win a contested election in the House of Representatives?

Edwards Proposes Consumer Financial Products Regulations

Another non-Bloomberg presidential candidate has a big-idea, big-policy speech tonight. Ex-Sen. John Edwards takes to the historic stage at Cooper Union in New York City to talk about debt and dignity.

He'll propose a new "Family Savings and Credit Commission" that would regulate consumer financial products -- an idea, incidentally, that comes right from the most recent issue of Democracy: A Journal of Ideas and economist Elizabeth Warren.

"There are still Two Americas," Edwards says tonight. "One America that lives by the paycheck calendar; another that never has to look at the calendar before writing a check. One America that’s afraid it won’t be able to leave its children a better life; another whose children are already set for life."

More, from the speech:

I have learned something in the last four years, though. It’s not enough to talk about the Two Americas. We also need to talk about what we need to do to build One America – and to do that, I believe we have to build One American Economy.

We should start with the Wild West of the credit industry, where some abusive and predatory lenders are robbing families blind. It’s time for a new sheriff in town.

It’s time we did more than say “buyer beware” while millions of families go broke every year. We should put in place the same consumer protections for financial products that we have for everything else Americans can buy. And when I’m president, I’ll do just that.”

Continue reading "Edwards Proposes Consumer Financial Products Regulations" »

Is The Arlington Group Coalescing Around Fred Thompson?

After more than a year of fretting, it looks as if many members of the Arlington Group, an informal roundtable of the country's most influential culturally conservative groups, are fast settling around Fred Thompson as their presidential candidate of choice.

Thompson is not an evangelical, but he has, evidently, sounded solid enough in his private meetings with individual Arlington Group members, a series of which have taken place over the past few weeks.

The Group does not endorse as a whole -- that's not how it's set up -- but its views generally reflect the views of conservative, politically active Christians in some early primary states. Or so everyone assumes. We really don't know, but we take their word for it. The loudest voice among evangelicals today remains James Dobson, who, through his Focus on the Family Action and an his informal ties to the Family Research Council.

Dobson dislikes McCain; he won't have anything to do with Giuliani; he does not trust Mitt Romney but was prepared to, for the sake of party comity, swallow his pride and support him. Dobson now has another choice, and since Fred Thompson represents a Blank Slate, he can paint whatever he'd like on the canvass.

Does Dobson move votes? Unclear. Can the Arlington Group alone enhance Thompson's credibility with cultural conservatives? Do they know enough about Thompson to be absolutely convinced that he will aggressively take steps as president to combat abortion, crush the "homosexual agenda," promote Christian principles in government, appoint reliable conservatives to key posts, etc

Many Arlington Group members are pragmatic. I've been told that they realize Mitt Romney does not have longstanding family ties to the conservative establishment and assume that he will govern from the center... that a President John McCain would not care and feed their members' institutional interests at all... that Rudy Giuliani would not align his governing agenda with theirs. Choosing Thompson may be as much about survival as it is about policy.

Obama's Earmarks, Released

Obama's earmarks!

Mike Huckabee will like:

YMCA of the USA, for pioneering for healthy communities, $5,000,000 YMCA of the USA launched the Pioneering Healthier Communities initiative to jump-start healthy and sustainable community leadership, and to change strategies across the country to rapidly and dynamically advance efforts to curb the chronic disease and obesity epidemics.

Yay ethanol:

University of Illinois, College of Agriculture Consumer and Environmental Sciences, for the Center for Advanced Bioenergy Research, $1,000,000 The Center will create a facilitative structure for outreach, teaching and research efforts in areas related to bioenergy systems. Research at the Center will focus on the increased output of energy, based on renewable biological resources.

Southern Illinois University, for the National Corn to Ethanol Research Center, $2,000,000 The National Corn to Ethanol research facility located in the research Park of Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville, is the only full-scale corn to ethanol testing facility in the nation.

Yay corporate jet owners:

Lewis University Airport in Romeoville, for the extension of its primary runway, $3,420,000 The runway extension is to allow existing based and visiting corporate aircraft to safely and efficiently operate at Will County's Airport.

We're All Liberals, I Guess**

This list of journalists and their political contributions is kind of embarassing for those of us who argue that our profession is learning to distance ourselves from our political attachments.

I still believe that accusations of "liberal bias" are too simplistic, but it's going to hard to argue with those who see differently.

** I'm not a liberal, but you get the idea.

Hey Press. Over Here! A Non-Independent Candidate Has An Idea!

So, Michael Bloomberg insists that no major candidate, Democratic or Republican, is addressing the major issues of our time. Objectively... huh?

Today in Colorado, for example, Mitt Romney will detail his "comprehensive strategy" for (in caps) "Winning The War On Terror." He'll explain to members of the American Enterprise Institute executive committee that he intends to create a "special partnership force" of like-minded nations to both undermine terrorists and "win hearts and minds" in contested areas.

And even liberals might want to take notice of this paragraph, which sketches out an idea that Romney has talked about before:

I would envision that the Summit would lead to the creation of a Partnership for Prosperity and Progress, a new type of Marshall Plan. This partnership would assemble resources from developed nations to work to assure that threatened Islamic states had public schools, not Wahhabi madrassas, micro credit and banking, the rule of law, human rights, basic healthcare, and competitive economic policies. The resources would be drawn from public and private institutions, and from volunteers and NGOs. And policies would favor expansion of free trade and investment.

The "competitive economic policies" and "free trade" aside, that's pretty much an idea that most Democrats would endorse, and one that would satisfy Bloomberg's avowel to try and rebuild America's image in the world.

Here's a bit more from Romney:

I believe America must establish a Special Partnership Force, comprised or Army Special Forces personnel and Intelligence personnel. This force would work hand-in-glove with local host governments. Together, in partnership, they would seek to target and separate terrorists from the local population, and to disrupt and defeat them. They would have the authority to call in all elements of civil assistance and humanitarian aid. And, where they felt it was necessary, theycould call in delta and SEAL resources.

Continue reading "Hey Press. Over Here! A Non-Independent Candidate Has An Idea!" »

Romney's "Security": A Closer Look

The New York Times's Mark Leibovich wrote last week that a Romney "operations" guy ordered him not to follow Romney's caravan, essentially pulled him over, and told him that they'd run his license plate through a database of some sort. The Romney campaign denies this, flatly.

Nothing riles up the press like wanna-be security goons puffing their chests out for no reason. I admit to feeling empathetically riled up on Leibovich's behalf. (So does CNN). The absurdity of it all -- how the heck are we supposed to cover all of Romney's events if we're not allowed to follow his motorcade? And who the heck gave these security guys permission to hassle us for doing our jobs? And why would sweet, eagle-eyed Mark Leibovich be deemed a threat? (Ok, he looks fierce, but he's a really nice guy.)

Enough self-righteousness!

"We don't talk about the governor's security, period," says Matt Rhoades, Romney's communications chief.

But based on my own observations, my guess is that the Leibovich story is not really the symptom of a larger Wannaseemlikeapotus-itis outbreak among Romney's staff.

It's probably just a single case of stupid: some operations guy felt he needed to be more important than he was, and so he lied to Leibovich, puffed out his chest, and made himself look ridiculous in the process.

For one thing, Romney is fairly accessible -- he holds media availabilities regularly. And, this one incident excepted, Romney's "operations staff" is well aware that reporters need to follow Romney's caravan. All they've asked in the past is that we reporters make our vehicles known to Romney's advance/operations/security guys.

Then there's the theatre: a security detail with clear-coil ear pieces, dark suits, and dark-colored SUVs is a Tony-award-winning presidential set piece; it throws a barely mistakable aura of importance around the candidate; it reminds average folks of the security cocoon that surrounds important, sober, powerful people, and it reminds the candidate that he is important, sober and powerful. And rich. For about $250,000 a year, you too can look presidential.

The non-cynical hemisphere of my brain says that Romney's staff doesn't want to take any chances; that his decisions as governor angered many people; that the press can be too aggressive at times; that it's a helpful way to control Romney's immediate environment and speed him to-and-from events. Also, maybe Romney needs no help to look presidential. So what if a big entourage ups his "out of touch" quotient? It's a necessary evil.

As for security, generally, threats are by their nature asymmetric, and if Romney sincerely believes himself to be under threat of bodily harm, then, absent any way to judge the truth of that proposition, by no means should anyone really question that.

Fortunately, there is a fairly objective standard for determining, right now, whether threat assessment professionals are worried about Romney.

Continue reading "Romney's "Security": A Closer Look" »

Two Things That Made Me Laugh

1. Michael Bloomberg:

“I’m particularly upset that the big issues of the time keep getting pushed to the back and we focus on small things that probably only inside the Beltway are important,” he said. “When you talk to people around this country, they care about who’s going to pay their Social Security, they care about who’s going to pay their medical care, they care about immigration, about our reputation overseas.” Nobody is willing to talk about those things,” he said about the issues.

Nobody? Has he not, you know, listened to NPR? Read the newspaper? Watched a debate? Browsed the Interwebs? Maybe he doesn't like the quality of the answers he hears, but that's not what he's saying.

2. Oof.

After a brief stop at a Little League game in Beranek Park, where Emma Claire mentioned that her softball team’s name is the Hawkeyes, the family ventured on to Tipton to rejoin their favorite candidate. Oh, but that’s not entirely accurate — or at least it wasn’t on Saturday. When the Edwardses visited the Cedar County Democrats’ tent, Mrs. Edwards asked her daughter which of the presidential candidates she liked best.

Did she point to dear old Dad? No, she pointed to Hillary Clinton. One strange political event, indeed.

So They Booed Hillary Again. So What?

From the perspective of Hillary Clinton's campaign, a little booing is not the end of the world and will not prevent her from Taking Back America.

For the second year in a row, Sen. Clinton's explanation for her positions on Iraq were booed by liberal activists at the TBA conference in Washington. Though not as much.

Here is how Clinton's strategists put it in perspective: the folks who attend the conference are a small subset of the Democratic base. That Democratic base, in fact, is partial to Hillary overall. Those highly-educated Democratic liberals who are engaged right now have probably made up their mind about whether Clinton's Iraq vote is the most savage of apostasies. If so, they're not voting for her anyway. And Clinton therefore does not need to hone her appeal to them.

When it comes down to it, the old canard applies: what hurts Clinton in the primaries just might help ease that polarization factor in the general.

Is this a buyable stock? Unclear. If the arc of the primary electorate swings toward an acceptance of the complexities of the 2002 vote, then maybe. But if Barack Obama begins to more cleanly delineate himself from Clinton -- as he did yesterday -- then maybe the arc will turn into a circle.

Here are the results of a Politico straw poll at the TBA conference:

--Barack Obama - 29 percent
--John Edwards - 26 percent
--Hillary Clinton - 17 percent
--Bill Richardson - 9 percent
--(Al Gore) - 8 percent (write-in)
--Dennis Kucinich - 5 percent
--Chris Dodd - 1 percent
--Mike Gravel - 1 percent
--Joe Biden - 1 percent

Another marvel of this race: Obama remains popular with self-identified liberals and self-indentified independents. His popularity spans a broader spectrum at this point that any other Democrat in the race.

More Bad News For McCain

A constituency he'll never win.

A Brief Photographic Tour Of Obama's Campaign Headquarters

Security was tight -- lots of Larouchites try to sneak in -- but here are a few photographs of some of the less sensitive areas of Obama's campaign headquarters, which occupies an entire floor of a downtown Chicago office building.

One thing you won't see on this tour: the maps of Iowa and New Hampshire above the men's urinals. They're there, but, well, I didn't want to whip out a camera in the bathroom.

The view from the Obama's campaign research department, currently enjoying (?) their 15 minutes in the sunlight. You're looking at the Obama campaign's press department.

This is the campaign's shredder. It has a name.

The view from New Media Joe Rospars's office.

The finance department. This is all I was able to see.

Bloomberg Won't Hurt Everyone Equally

If Michael Bloomberg runs for president as an independent or somehow on the Unity '08 ticket, most of the political class has convinced itself that Bloomberg would steal more votes from Republicans than from Democrats.

They base this conclusion on one supposition and one fact. The supposition is that Bloomberg won't run if an independent-minded Democrat, or a Democrat who attracts independents like Barack Obama (or maybe Bill RIchardson) does, gets the nomination. Also -- he won't run if an independent-minded Republican -- John McCain, gets the GOP nod. It's unclear just how Bloomberg regards his mayoral predecessor, Rudy Giuliani, right now. So -- if the supposition holds, then Bloomberg would only run if the Democrats select a polarizing Democrat, the Republicans select a cultural conservative, and the level of discourse between the main candidates reaches a new low.

The fact is that in Southern states like Mississippi, South Carolina, Kentucky and Georgia, Democrats have a solid, unbreakable base of black voters that approaches 35% of the general election voter pool. They point out that Ross Perot, who won nearly 19% percent of the popular vote in 1992, stole more votes from George H.W. Bush than he did from Bill Clinton. That conclusion is supported by the political science literature.

And if the exit polls were correct, Perot managed to sap as many liberal independents from Democrats as he did conservative independents from Republicans. But Bill Clinton's base was solid enough in the South; more solid than the Republican base. Perot's other demographic strongholds included younger voters, unmarried Midwesterners, rural voters, evangelicals and protestants;

But there are at least three reasons to discount the argument from history.

Continue reading "Bloomberg Won't Hurt Everyone Equally" »

The RNC Turns Attention To Obama

The Republican National Committee stepped up its cross-pressure on Sen. Barack Obama today, tagging him "A Leader Who's Never Led" (a phrase attributed to Ezra Klein) and castigating his Senate record as showing a "lack" of "leadership and accomplishments." A research memo, like the one you can read after the break, shows that the RNC takes Obama seriously as a potential Democratic nominee.

Continue reading "The RNC Turns Attention To Obama" »

Fred Thompson's First Cattle Call...

Ex-Sen. Fred Thomson is on the verge of committing to his first major Republican cattle call.

An Indiana Republican says that Thompson is planning to announce that he'll attend the Midwestern Republican Leadership Conference in Indianapolis, which begins on Aug. 24.

(Ex-Gov. Mitt Romney is attending; Sen. John McCain is likely to attend; Ex-NYC Mayor Giuliani is tbd).

The MRLC gathers more than 1,000 top Midwestern Republicans in one place and is a compliment to the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, at whose straw poll Mitt Romney pulled a surprise second place showing in 2006. The last time the biennial conference was held in Indianapolis, the star of the show was a Texas Gov., George W. Bush.

Giuliani And "The Culture Of Spending"

Messaging: the day before Rudy Giuliani travels to Iowa to deliver a speech on the "culture of spending" that suffocates the federal government, his campaign announced that they're beefing up their field presence in the state.

The Wall Street Journal's John Harwood has a preview:

Giuliani said he will draw on an approach inspired by Ronald Reagan that he practiced in New York City: directing agencies to prepare budgets incorporating actual spending reductions rather than routine increases accounting for inflation. Even if those reductions aren’t achieved, Giuliani said, the process of preparing for them will often have the effect of either holding budgets steady or slowing the rate of increase that would otherwise emerge from the legislative process.

Giuliani said his Wednesday speech will also take aim at budget “earmarks” that have exploded in Congress in recent years, and offer a handful of specific agencies and programs he’d cut as president — in part by capitalizing on technology improvements that can boost productivity. He said he’d offer additional budget-cutting details in a subsequent speech this fall.

The Democratic National Committee and the Iowa Dem Party will circulate a research memo about Giuliani today. The cut line:

Today Giuliani promises to unveil details about his commitment to fiscal discipline. But the facts of Giuliani’s record as mayor – which he keeps asking voters to examine – show that his record really isn’t anything to brag about, nor are the facts quite the way he portrays them.

South Carolina Primary Set To Move

The second most interesting story out of South Carolina today, other than the indictment of the state treasurer on charges of distributing crack cocaine, is the vote by the South Carolina General Assembly to overturn Gov. Mark Sanford's veto of the 2008 budget.

Contained within that budget is a proviso ordering the state board of elections to pay for the presidential primaries.

With this new budget freedom, expect to see the South Carolina Republican Party take advantage. It's expected that chairman Katon Dawson will move his party's primary, currently scheduled for Jan 29, to at least a week earlier.

It's not clear whether the Democratic state chair, Carol Khare Fowler, will follow suit. The DNC has promised to protect the Democratic primary in South Carolina, and so far, Fowler has kept her cards to herself.

Michigan is watching the South Carolina date closely. The state GOP has decided to buck the rules and may hold its primary on Jan 29., incurring a delegate penalty of 50%. The state Democratic Party is thinking of moving their contest even earlier.

And New Hampshire's Secretary of State, Bill Gardner, reserves the right to move his primary from Jan. 22 to Jan 15. That would, of course, push Iowa back to Jan 7 or 8.

Who benefits? It's not clear. The political world might only be able to figure out in retrospect. It matters a lot whether the '08 nomination turns into a delegate accumulation race, or whether the recent tradition of annointing early, momentum-fueled winners holds. But Feb 5., more than any other date, will decide which route the eventual nominee will take. So it's not at all clear -- and probably won't be clear until right after the S.C. primary -- whether it was a beauty contest or something more tangible.

MIchael Bloomberg (U-Ve Got To Be Kidding)

Late word today is that the mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg has changed his party affiliation to "Republican" to "unaffiliated." (Welcome to the club, bub).

Let's assume that Bloomberg is going to run for president until he says he isn't. That way, it's easier on everybody.

Will voters penalize him for being a Republican during the Iraq War and so obsequiously courting the Bush administration... and then, when it was politically advantageous, changing his party affiliation?

The press just loves the idea of The Rise Of The Independents. I endorse the concept, too, but no one -- not Bloomberg, not Arnie, not any real independent -- has actually figured out what type of policies independents would actually support, and whether they differ substantively from the bigger-government-ish-but-market-oriented programs that Democrats generally propose. For example: just what has Bloomberg said about health care that hasn't also been uttered by Barack Obama or John Edwards?

That said, the "threat" of Bloomberg running is real. The potential for Unity 08 to screw things up for both parties is real.

In Case You Haven't Seen This....

There's a bit of a "Yes, They Went There" quality to this video...

Mitt Romney's New Ad

He's going to "work like crazy" to bring change to Washington. It's headed into the rotation the Romney campaign has aired to great effect in New Hampshire and Iowa -- although, and I always feel the need to point this out, the campaign is also bombarding NH voters with personal contacts, too.

The Mitt Romney in this ad seems less stiff, more sinewy, and more engaged with his message.

"I'm going to cut taxes. I'm going to cut spending," Romney says, getting that message just right. This is one in a series of "three legged stool" ads; if you're not familiar with that metaphor, it's the Romney campaign's description of choice for the strength of his appeal with the Republican electorate: stronger families (leg), a smaller government (leg), and a mighty national defense (leg, set and match).

Insiders will note the Club for Growth logo in the background.... a subtle appeal to authority and expertise.

Feb. 5: The DMA Primary

Although a majority of American voters will get the chance to participate in the Feb. 5 Super Tsunami Mastadoon (or whatever) primary this year, don't assume that all their potential votes will count equally.

There is no obvious strategy.

Consider: 173 delegates are up for grabs in California. Each Congressional district sends three delegates to the convention; the other 14 are are at-large or bonus. That's a relatively recent rules change. It was designed to even the influence of Republicans in, say, the Central Valley, with Republicans in Los Angeles and force candidates to campaign everywhere.

In theory, that's what it will do. If Rudy Giuliani recieves a plurality of the vote in the 1st congressional district, he receives all the delegates awarded by that district. If he recieves a majority of the vote statewide, he'll get another 10 delegates.

What to do? A campaign can try to target Republican voters in all 53 counties at once. But that's impractical and extremely expensive. Here's another strategy:

(a) locate those congressional districts clumped together in television markets and saturate them with television advertisements

(b) use voter modeling and microtargeting to locate Republican neighborhoods in more rural districts and target those households with personal telephone calls and even in-person contacts.

But more (a) than (b), because if a campaign manages to turn out a plurality of voters, they they've "won" the state, receiving additional delegates and the "winner" designation by the political press corps, who will be itching to detect currents towards one candidate or another on Feb. 5.

Except if, say, Fred Thompson wins more delegates from winning in more conservative congressional districts.... but loses the statewide vote because Rudy Giuliani, who spent nearly all of his money in the three biggest media markets, managed to turn out unprecedented numbers of primary voters in a few congressional districts.

That's not likely to happen: At least 40 of California's 53 congressional districts are served by one of three designated market areas: the Yuma El Centro DMA, which includes San Diego, San Bernadino and Riverside. The Los Angeles DMA. And the San Francisco DMA.

James Johnson Decides To Support Obama

For more than a decade, perhaps no Democrat in Washington better exemplified the city's political-corporate-cultural elite than James A. Johnson, the former head of Fannie Mae.

Johnson, according to two Democrats, including one with direct knowledge of the decision, will support Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign.

Mr., Johnson did not respond to e-mails and a telephone calling seeking his confirmation or a comment. He is famously reluctant to speak to the press, which is one reason why he has become a trusted adviser to so many politcians.

In 2004, Johnson was tapped by Sen. John Kerry to direct his vice-presidential search process. There were no leaks.

His resume spans the elite axis of the entreprenurial, the artistic, and the political. He was CEO of Fannie Mae before that job became controversial, has served as chairman of the Kennedy Center, and was a senior aide to Walter Mondale before settling into life as vice chairman of Perseus, LLC, one of those big private equity banks in DC.

According to Bob Shrum's new book, Kerry wanted Johnson to serve as his White House chief of staff.

Johnson is married to Maxine Isaacs, a professor at the Kennedy School of Government who is a political force in her own right.

Newt's Immigration Ad

For a guy who's not running for president, he's certainly eager to put his stamp on the issues of the day.

Obama's Second Act? He Confronts Clinton On The War

CHICAGO -- Sen. Barack Obama is using his platform in front of a raucus liberal audience in Washington, D.C. today to confront Democrats -- Sen. Hillary Clinton in particular -- who voted in 2002 to authorize the use of military force in Iraq.

Obama regularly tells Democrats that he was proud to oppose the war from the start. He was running for the Illinois state senate at the time. Today, Obama brings that distinction into sharper relief, saying that he is "proud that I stood up in 2002 and urged our leaders not to take us down this dangerous path."

He continues: “So many of us knew this back then, even when it wasn’t popular to say so."

“We knew back then this war was a mistake. We knew back then that it was dangerous diversion from the struggle against the terrorists who attacked us on September 11th. We knew back then that we could find ourselves in an occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. “But the war went forward. And now, we’ve seen those consequences and we mourn for the dead and wounded. ”I know that turning the page is possible. This isn’t just the rhetoric of a campaign, it’s been the cause of my life – a cause I will work for and fight for every day as your President.

Obama does not, of course, mention Clinton by name, but it's clear which side he says she's on -- and it's not the "we knew" side.

Bill Clinton Campaigns For Hillary In Iowa

It's official now: former President Bill Clinton will campaign for his wife, Hillary, in Iowa, from July 2 through Independence Day.

Why now? "For starters and has been noted on the covers of more than a few magazines and newspapers, he has been working hard on behalf of her campaign for weeks but there isn't a better place to be on independence day than Iowa," says Jay Carson, Bill Clinton's spokesman.

Translated: Don't ask "why now."

Here's why I asked "why now": virtually no one expected him to campaign this early, under the assumption that Bill Clinton would do the most good for his wife's campaign if he helped to reinforce her standng with Democratic base voters late in the game. (Clinton aides told me in February that I was unlikely to see Bill Clinton on the campaign trail before the fall.)

Whatever those assumptions were, they turned out to be mistaken. For one thing, Hillary Clinton's standing with core Democratic voters is very solid. And within the past few months, she's established her own political identity.

Maybe Hillary Clinton needs a bit of an artificial, external boost in Iowa right now.

Watch for falling metaphors. Some analysts will say that Hillary Clinton decided to use a howitzer in what had heretofore been a knife fight. Or maybe she tagged her political partner much earlier in the match than expected. Her opponents compare The Bill Effect to a the a bout with the winter flu - it hurts a lot at first, but then it generally goes away, everything returns to normal, and you're immune from it for the rest of the season.

Some Second Quarter Fundraising Predictions -- UPDATED

Bear in mind that I retain the right to revise these as I receive additional information.

The Democrats:

Sen. Barack Obama: $28M-$35M
-- only a very few Obama staffers have access to estimates, and they're not talking
-- almost entirely primary money
-- cash on hand should be north of $32M

Sen. Hillary Clinton: $26M-28M
-- The primary/general election ratio will be around 5 to 1).
-- Projected cash on hand should be north of $40M

Ex-Sen. John Edwards: $8.5M-11M
-- virtually all for the primary
-- cash on hand should be greater than $15M

Gov. BIll Richardson: $3-7M
Sen. Joe Biden: $3-5M
Sen. Chris Dodd: $2-M

The Republicans:

Gov. Mitt Romney: $17M-20M
-- Romney did NOT have the highest burn rate, contrary to what I wrote earlier. He spent the most money, but his burn rate was well below that of Sen. John McCain's. I'll assume the 50% rate held through the second quarter, so he's in reasonably good shape if he has more than $18M in reserves.

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani: $14M-17M
-- cash on hand should be north of $16M assuming a burn rate of less than 50%

Sen. John McCain: $13M-15M
-- cash on hand should be north of $14M assuming a burn rate of less than 50%

Gov. Mike Huckabee: $2M-4M

Obama's South Asian-American Supporters Take Issue

It seems that South Asians For Obama was a fuller apology from Sen. Obama and his campaign and they might make them:

Like most of you, SAFO was shocked and dismayed to learn the news about an opposition research memo entitled "Hillary Clinton (D-Punjab)'s Personal Financial and Political Ties to India," which was distributed to reporters on a not-for-attribution basis by the Obama campaign. Although intended to draw attention to Senator Clinton's hypocritical position on outsourcing, the memo was laced with criticism of Senator Clinton's longstanding support among the Indian American community.

In addition to being offended by the clear anti-Indian sentiment in the memo, we were particularly disturbed because the memo flies in the face of what we respect most about Senator Obama -- his inclusive message and his ability to relate to people of all backgrounds.

After reading the story, SAFO immediately went to work drafting a response to the campaign. As we were finalizing this response -- but before we could send it -- we received a call from the campaign in Chicago. We learned, as we had already suspected, that the memo did not reflect Senator Obama's views regarding the Indian American community, and he was deeply disturbed by its content. (Indeed, the memo even appears to contradict some the Senator's own statements regarding outsourcing.) We expressed our severe disappointment with the incident, and offered our constructive thoughts as to how the campaign should respond -- both internally and outwardly -- to rectify the situation.

On Friday evening, Senator Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe issued the following statement: "Barack Obama has been a longtime friend of the Indian-American community and our campaign is fortunate to have strong support from Indian-Americans across the country. The intent of the document was to discuss the issue of outsourcing, but we regret the tone that parts of the document took."

The response prompted a variety of reactions from our community. As organizers of an effort committed to building a relationship between the campaign and the South Asian American community, we were less than satisfied. However, we have new reason for optimism. We have been in contact with the campaign over the weekend and are confident that this issue is now receiving the attention of those at the highest level. The Senator himself is cognizant of our concerns (not just with the memo, but also the initial response) and has made clear his intention to address the situation personally. The campaign has already begun reaching out to individual members of the community, and a more public gesture will be forthcoming. Over the next several days, we will continue to communicate with the campaign to convey the sentiments of the community regarding this incident and work toward a positive resolution.

We are aware that this posting will prompt a wide range of reactions from our readers and supporters. We invite you to share your thoughts and comments with us here. We also intend to share your thoughts with Senator Obama to ensure that we continue to move this campaign, our community, and our country forward.

This posting will be updated periodically to reflect any new developments....

Taking Stock Of A Half Year In Politics

Let's take stock of the major developments in PY 2007 -- that's Political Year 2007. There are really only two.

One is -- Sen. Barack Obama tried, but has so far failed, to knock Hillary Clinton off her pedestal.

The other is: Sen. John McCain has been knocked off his pedestal. A different iteration of this dynamic has Rudy Giuliani replacing McCain as the frontrunner, but you'd have to account for the fact that Giuliani is down 10 from his early spring average.

The rest is really noise.

Consider: the USA Today/Gallup poll shows that seven percent of the less than 400 Republican samples would vote today for Mitt Romney. He leads in New Hampshire and Iowa, and he's also leading (or tied) in Michigan and leads in Utah. Those states represented about 6 percent of the population. Fred Thompson's voice and his blank canvass account for 19 percent of the sample. McCain holds steady with 18 percent. Rudy Giuliani still leads, but he's down four points (just within the margin of error). Romney dropped five points -- itself not technically a sign of significant movement.

Mason-Dixon's poll today is pumping up some press coverage, but it's almost impossible to read anything into it. For one thing, it appears to be an outlier -- McCain,in May, led in three of four public SC polls -- and Fred Thompson has yet to visit the state. Some folks on the periphery of the Thompson world do not believe he will even compete there.

A Crack In The Edifice Of Campaign Finance Reform

In a few hours, or perhaps just a few more days, the Supreme Court will hand down its decision in Wisconsin Right to Life v. The Federal Election Commission.

WRTL challenged the "electioneering communications" provision in the '03 campaign finance law revision known as BCRA, or, to most conservatives and the press, McCain-Feingold. The law prohibits incorporated entities like Wisconsin Right to Life from using its general treasury funds to run television or radio ads within 30 days of a primary or within 60 days of a general election if those ads specifically refer to a candidate for federal office.

James Bopp, Jr., WTRL's lawyer and a regular Supreme Court litigant on behalf of conservative causes, has freely admitted that WTRL intended to challenge that provision,when,in the summer of 2004, the group ran an ad urging viewers to contact both of Wisconsin's senators -- Herb Kohl, who was not up for re-election and Russ Feingold, who was -- and command them not to filibuster judicial nominees

WTRL asked the FEC that summer for a "grassroots exception" to BCRA because the authors of BCRA presumably never intended for the provision to apply to legislative advocacy groups like WRTL. The FEC said no, and three years later, the Court is on the cusp of the decision. (The court will also decide whether litigants can bring "as applied" challenges because SCOTUS already ruled on BCRA's constitutionality in general. But that's not germane here.)

Court watchers are convinced that with Justice Sam Alito on the bench, a majority exists to order the FEC to rewrite that part of the legislation.

The decision will probably be narrowly tailored, but it may well include a roadmap for future challenges to BCRA itself. That's what worries advocates of campaign finance reform.

The genius of Bopp's case is how careful WTRL navigated these waters. The ad did not refer to a candidate in a very contested race; it refered to a specific Congressional action that was under consideration; the ad did not mention the candidate's party affiliation; it did not even imply that they were on the wrong side of the issue.

Watch to see how Mitt Romney, once a supporter of campaign finance reform and now a vocal critic, and arch-nemesis McCain handle themselves in the aftermath. Mr. Bopp is now a senior adviser to Romney, and hatred for campaign finance reform is, of course, one of the prime cri de coeurs of the conservative movement in Washington.

In February, Bopp engineered a resolution at the Republican Naitonal Committee winter meeting expressly condemning McCain's law.

Another '08er worth watching is Fred Thompson, who worked hand in glove with McCain on the campaign finance issue in Congress. Thompson has given hints that he doesn't support the entire BCRA law but otherwise has not repudiated his own particiation in the entire enterprise.

What To Watch For This Week

## Tuesday in DC: Two major Dem cattle calls -- the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union, and Take Back America, a liberalpalooza. Watch to see how Sen. Obama does at AFSCME -- it's generally assumed that president Gerald McEntee is a friend of the Clinton's.... and how Sen. Clinton talks about the war at the TBA conference.

## Finance events up the wazoo, as candidates begin to leak their second quarter estimates and fiddle with expectations. Remember, the key numbers to watch are the amount of money raised for the primary only and the total amount of cash on hand. That'll tell us the burnrates.

## On Thursday, Mitt Romney delivers what aides are billing as a "major address" to the American Enterprise Institute in DC. It's all about the "strong military" leg of Romney's three-legged stool metaphor. Per an aide: " The AEI speech will focus on revitalizing American power to build a safer and more secure world. Governor Romney will discuss ways to strengthen our intelligence capabilities."

## On the Hill, the Senate immigration bill is back! That's Wednesday.

The ‘stronger military’ leg of the three legged stool

Another Black Swan?: Everquest

"An unprecedented attempt by a Wall Street house to dump its mortgage bets." That's an eye-catching sentence, isn't it? It refers to an IPO of a Bear-Sterns-managed lending company called Everquest.

Many economic-types I know are very worried that trillions in wealth could simply vanish over the next several years, triggering a series of steps that would lead to a massive collapse of the American economy.

Here's BusinessWeek:

Everquest is a fledgling financial-services company that has been buying up equity interests in risky bonds backed by subprime mortgages from hedge funds managed by Bear Stearns (BSC)—one of Wall Street's biggest underwriters of mortgage-backed securities and other exotic mortgage-related bonds. The deal appears to be an unprecedented attempt by a Wall Street house to dump its mortgage bets.

The sales pitch for the IPO, which Bear Stearns is also underwriting, is that Everquest will "provide attractive risk-adjusted returns" to shareholders by investing in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs)—a sophisticated bond that's made up of pieces of lots of other asset-backed bonds. The nine-month-old company expects to produce reliable earnings from the quarterly cash flows generated by the underlying "financial assets" in the 19 CDOs it either owns outright or has a majority equity interest in. Everquest's portfolio of CDOs is valued at about $720 million, of which nearly two-thirds were purchased last fall from hedge funds managed by Bear Stearns Asset Management, a subsidiary of the Wall Street firm.

But Everquest's portfolio could be a time bomb. A "substantial majority" of the CDOs are backed by mortgages to home buyers with risky credit histories, according to its filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

Bloomberg has this scary stat:

The number of U.S. homeowners who face possible eviction because of late mortgage payments rose to an all-time high in the first quarter, led by subprime borrowers, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today.

New Jersey's Gift To Rudy Giuliani

I've written about this before, and now it's official: the New Jersey Republican Party has voted to change its delegate allocation rules from proportional representation to winner-take-all. That means, in essence, that no one but Rudy Giuliani will receive New Jersey's 52 convention delegates on Feb. 5.

Florida, on Jan. 29, is the precurser for Giuliani's "Feb 5" strategy. And delegate allocation there is by congressional district, so Giuliani and the other candidates can pick and choose where they want to campaign.

By the way: California, which closed its primary to independents, is winner-take-all by congressional district.

What To Read: By Saturday I Learned A Thing Or Two...

Peggy Noonan once again pours out her frustration. The White House, she writes,

thinks its base is stupid and that its heart is in the wrong place.

For almost three years, arguably longer, conservative Bush supporters have felt like sufferers of battered wife syndrome. You don't like endless gushing spending, the kind that assumes a high and unstoppable affluence will always exist, and the tax receipts will always flow in? Too bad! You don't like expanding governmental authority and power? Too bad. You think the war was wrong or is wrong? Too bad.

Rich Lowry suggests that John McCain isn't "dead" yet -- if only because the rest of the Republican field is so flawed:

The tricky thing about political leadership is that it has to involve some followership, too. Mitt Romney would have no chance to lead the Republican party as a relatively moderate northeasterner, because that’s not where the Republican party is. Nor would Rudy Giuliani, which is why he has distanced himself from many of his positions as mayor (although in not as jarring a fashion as Romney).

Barack Obama's campaign was caught sending out information about the Clinton's personal financial disclosure forms.

These documents – with their bold type and grabby headlines, including one that referred to Mrs. Clinton as (D-Punjab) – are text-book examples of old-school opposition research practices. Second, the documents include what could be construed as attacks on Mr. Clinton, who is probably the most popular person among Democrats these days.

Mr. Obama’s press secretary, Bill Burton, defended the documents, noting that they were simply a compilation of public quotations and information available to anyone with access to the Internet. “I don’t know why anybody would take umbrage with us putting out publicly available information.

Mr. Burton would not comment when asked why, if that were the case, the campaign would not simply distribute the information under its name

The D-Punjab thing makes Brendan Nyhan angry.

Fred Thompson (R-Inkblot) scored the endorsement of 15 members of the Florida House of Representatives.

The list of signers includes Jim Frishe, Pinellas Park; Don Brown, DeFuniak Springs; Larry Cretul, Ocala; Denise Grimsley, Lake Placid; Sandy Adams, Orlando; David Mealor, Lake Mary; Mitch Needelman, Melbourne; Mike Davis, Naples; Ralph Poppell, Vero Beach; Steve Precourt, Orlando; Bryan Nelson, Apopka; Clay Ford, Gulf Breeze; Doug Holder, Sarasota; Seth McKeel, R-Lakeland; and Dennis Ross, Lakeland.

The biggest trend in politics? it's the rise of the seculars, according to the Atlantic's Ross Douthat.

The argument, in short, is that just as the elite-level secularization of the 1960s and '70s (in the intelligentsia, the Courts, and the Democratic Party) produced backlash in the form of the religious right, so now that backlash has bred its own backlash, in the form of a mass secularism whose attitudes toward religion, politics, and church-state separation are more European than anything we've seen before in American political life. This, not the supposed right-wing religious revival that conservatives champion and liberals dread, is the newest new thing in American political life, and the trend that's likely to have the most impact on the culture wars over the next decade or so.

Romney Explains His Conversion To Nat'l Right To Lifers

"I proudly follow a long line of converts – George Herbert Walker Bush, Henry Hyde, and Ronald Reagan to name a few.

"I am evidence that your work, that your relentless campaign to promote the sanctity of human life, bears fruit
…

"When I first ran for office, while I was always personally opposed to abortion, I considered whether this should be a private decision or whether it should be a societal and government decision. I concluded that I would support the law as it was in place – effectively, the pro-choice position.

"And I was wrong.

"My experience as Governor taught me firsthand that the threat to our culture is real and those in a position to do so must take action to defend it.

"Times of decision are moments of great clarity. Before I was Governor, the life issue was just that, an issue. But when responsibility for life or ending life was placed in my hands, I made the right decision. I chose life.

NBC/National Journal Team Up For Campaign Reporter Program

Thank goodness they're not called "Embeds" this year.

NBC News/MSNBC/MSNBC.com and National Journal Group announced today an expansion of their existing partnership by launching a group of political reporters who will cover the 2008 Presidential election full-time from the campaign trail. Beginning this summer and reaching full strength as the campaigns swing into high gear, these campaign reporters will blog and file video, audio and text dispatches from the trail for NBC News, National Journal, The Hotline, CongressDaily, MSNBC, MSNBC.com, NBC Mobile, NBC Radio and Telemundo. The announcement was made today by NBC News President Steve Capus and John Fox Sullivan, National Journal’s Group Publisher and Chief Executive.

Said Capus, "There is nothing like being there, up close and personal, when it comes to covering a presidential election, and this allows us to be there in a very big way. Our team of reporters on the road with the candidates will be in a unique position to report all aspects of this dynamic story for every single one of our platforms."

Based on the success of NBC News’ campaign embeds from the last presidential election, this cycle of reporters will also be dedicated video-journalists, each of whom will serve as their own mobile campaign bureaus (reporter, producer, cameraperson and blogger), armed with the latest technology for both video and text. The “Decision 2008” campaign reporters will also provide viewers and readers with behind-the-scenes coverage and unprecedented insider access to news and information about the candidates and their top advisors.

“Having this team of reporters on the trail with the candidates and their top staff day in and day out will provide our audience of political junkies with the inside stories and interesting tidbits that they otherwise would not get,” said John Fox Sullivan. “We’re excited to be able to work with NBC News to offer our readers this expanded coverage of what is already a fascinating and highly contested election season.”

From 1995: Thompson Would "Be Of Little Help" to Pro-Lifers

On the day Sen. Fred Thompson speaks via video to the National Right To Life convention in Kansas City, a rival Republican campaign passes along an article from the Feb. 10, 1995 issue of Human Events, the leading conservative weekly newspaper. It's a mostly positive profile that includes this paragraph:

A Thompson spokesman reminds us that Thompson won the Nat'l Right to Life's endorsement in 1994 and has a 100% pro-life voting record.

He has explained that quote several times. He has said he is not in favor of a FEDERAL law (or a constitutional amendment) outlawing it for the same reason he believes that Roe v.Wade is bad law (and bad science) and should be overturned. It is nothing that the federal government should be involved in. It is consistent with his strong stance on federalism – leave to the states what should be left to the states and only give the federal government the authority originally intended in the constitution (as elucidated by Hamilton, Madison and Jay in the Federalist papers).

The real question for Thompson vis-a-vis pro-lifers is: why does he oppose abortion, and what does the content of his beliefs say about his willingness to actively limit abortion rights as president?

The Daily... Blob?

Attention Mark Penn: Frank Newport suggests (right?) that the next Gallup poll will be good for Sen. Clinton. MysteryPollster has more.

Speaking of: Clinton's electable in... Texas?

Texas hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential race in more than three decades. But the survey shows Republican contender Sen. John McCain essentially tied with Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton among registered voters, with McCain at 36% and Clinton at 35% in a head-to-head contest. Republican Rudy Giuliani and Clinton also are essentially tied, at 32%-31%.

Rudy Giuliani backhands ... well, it appears as if he backhands the president, but

Speaking at a Flag Day rally in Wilmington, Del., Giuliani told more than 200 supporters: "What we're lacking is strong, aggressive, bold leadership like we had with Ronald Reagan."

Writing from Provincetown, MA, my Atlantic colleague Andrew Sullivan is very, very happy. Mitt Romney is not:

"Today's vote by the State Legislature is a regrettable setback in our efforts to defend traditional marriage. Unfortunately, our elected representatives decided that the voice of the people did not need to be heard in this debate. It is now even more important that we pass a Constitutional amendment protecting traditional marriage. Marriage is an institution that goes to the heart of our society, and our leaders can no longer abdicate their responsibility."

A mouthful of Gyllenhaall. The Jakester wants to star in a play about Howard Dean.

Romney Plans Major Arena Fundraiser To End Quarter

Mitt Romney's presidential campaign will commandeer Fenway Park and a Boston arena for a night and a day late next week for a major last-minute fundraising extravanganza. It even has a fancy title: "America's Calling."

And once again, reporters are invited.

A couple hundred Romney supporters will attend the official National Call Day on the 25th after a massive bar-b-que at Fenway on the 24th.

They'll be seated around tables on the parquet floor of the Boston Garden (er, the TD Banknorth Garden, a bastard child of the old Bank of Boston, Bay Bank, North Bank, Bank North and TD Waterhouse), home of the Celtics, with the charge of raising $5K each. The campaign hopes to raise at least $2.5M, according to one Republican familiar with the goals.

The first 100 to sign up will get their hotel rooms comped.

When the campaign held its first national call day in January, Romney finance director Spencer Zwick told his boss, cautiously, that he expected to raise a little more than $1M. The campaign would up securing more than $6.5M that day. So this time, Zwick might be a bit more, eh, liberal, with the estimates.

The national political press corps was beckoned to Boston to watch the proceedings and dutifully chronicled the day, which began with a teary speech from Ann Romney and ended with a triumphant press conference. The scope of Romney's fundraising network began to sink in: he can raise money from his business contacts, his Bain Co. contacts, his co-religionists, donors to the Republican Governors Association, a healthy chunk of Bush pioneers, old Romney family friends from Michigan, Harvard lawyers and MBAs and Massachusetts technology concerns. Pardon the passive voice, but expectations were raised.

Romney should have no trouble raising money this quarter, thanks to good press, good polls and other candidates' bad slumps. But it's not clear whether he'll raise more than he did last quarter, when he took in $20M in contributions from individuals.

A Top Biden Fundraiser Departs

One of Joe Biden's top fundraisers has left the campaign after a dispute over fundraising strategy, but Biden insiders insist it's not a sign that the campaign is having trouble raising money.

Kory Mitchell, considered one of the party's best fundraisers and formerly the finance director of Evan Byah's All America PAC, quit the campaign this week, according to three friends of his.

According to two of those friends, Mitchell never meshed with veteran Biden aides and they, in turn, never quite took to him. According to one source, a dispute of Mitchell's salary hastened his leaving.

Larry Rasky, a senior Biden adviser, declined to say discuss Mitchell but said his departure had nothing to do with the campaign's underlying financial condition. He said the campaign expanded its payroll by 25 new hires over the past month including five new professional fundraisers in the finance department.

Mitchell joined the Biden campaign shortly after Bayh dropped out of the presidential race.

Today, Biden’s campaign chairman, David Wilhelm, sent out a fundraising plea that urges prospective donors to ignore national polls and instead focus on the 92 percent of primary voters who haven’t mad a final decision.

Writes Wilhelm: “When it comes to substance, Joe Biden is breaking through. I firmly believe that Joe Biden has a very clear pathway in this race: he is the Democratic Party's acknowledged leader on national security during a cycle when America's place in the world is the issue at the forefront of people's minds; he is the only Democrat with a clear plan for how America can withdraw from Iraq with honor at a time when Iraq dwarfs all other concerns of Democratic primary voters. “

Rasky declined to estimate how much Biden's campaign would raise, or how much it would have left in the bank when the fundraising quarter ends. "I'm feeling good," he said, "about the fundraising."

Biden raised slightly more than $2M in the first quarter of the year and transferred in nearly $2M from an old campaign account. His years on the Senate judiciary committee have helped him court the donations of the trial bar, and he's had solid fundraising efforts in Chicago and Boston.

PFD Day; When Is Tax Return Day?

Today's the day that personal financial disclosure forms for members of Congress are released, and y'all can read the Clinton family's PFD right here. Obama's, here. McCain's, here.

What's most interesting about it is... well, it's not that interesting. The PFDs don't tell you all much. Information is given in ranges; the only real details here about the speeches that Bill Clinton has given. (They're not scandalous, unless you think that pro-NAFTA speeches are politically icky).

You can find the real good stuff in tax returns, but the Clintons haven't released those yet.

Richardson Nabs Four Congressional Endorsements

Four: Rep. Mike Doyle (D-PA), Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D-TX), Rep. Gene Green (D-TX) and Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-TX).

Faith, Values And The Jews

The release:

GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY ANNOUNCES THE

NATIONAL FAITH AND VALUES STEERING COMMITTEE

All Christians, except for one Jew. (Should I also count Jay Sekulow, who was born Jewish and later became a Jew who believes in Christ?)

I originally wrote that there were no Jews. Well, I was wrong. There's Dr. Paul K. Driessen.

My observation is not at all subtle accusation of anti-Semitism or anything remotely like that.

It's more of an organizational question: why separate the campaign's Jewish advisory council (there is one) from its faith and values steering committee?

The Republicans generally mock the balkanization of Democratic interest groups -- that Dems send out press releases trumpeting the endorsements of gays, Latinos, etc.

Republicans kinda sorta do the same thing, but they have an innocuous name for it: affinity groups. And suffice it to say, some Republican campaigns think that Israel is the only "Jewish" issue. It's not. I presume any person willing to be publicly identified by his or her religion is interested in faith and values.

Continue reading "Faith, Values And The Jews" »

YouTube's Debates

http://www.youtube.com/debates

Submit your own question, get Anderson Cooper to introduce you, and grill those presidential candidates.

Ominous Sign For Obama In New NBC/WSJ Poll?

It's not so much his dip in the vote -- it's only June, after all -- but question number 15, which deals with the desired qualities in a presidential candidate.

Which one or two of the following qualities would you most like to have in the Democratic nominee for president? (IF "ALL," ASK:) If you had to choose just one or two, which would you say are the MOST important to you personally?

The choices:

Bringing real change to the direction of the country: 50%
Being knowledgable and experienced enough to handle the presidency: 39%
Having a vision for the country's future: 25%
Sharing your positions on the issues: 12%
Being inspirational and an exciting choice for president: 6%
Having the best chance to win the presidency: 6%

Experience matters more than excitement and inspiration; Democrats are much more confident about winning in '08 than they were about winning in '04, so the electability quotient matters much less at this point.

We wish there had been a follow up: which candidate has the best shot at bringing real change to the direction of the country?

Obama's campaign makes the argument that it's him, not Hillary or anyone else.

Maya Angelou Endorses Hillary Clinton

Memorably.

Liberal Hawks and Iran

Ezra Klein asks what liberal hawks actually want to do in Iran and castigates them for "relying on a different tactic altogether: sheer vagueness." Klein limits the available options to two: invade or ... not invade. Liberal hawks are dodging the question, he writes.

It's an axiom on the left today that the president wants to invade Iran; when the president scoffs at that idea, liberals rightly scoff right back -- why should they believe him? Liberal hawks profoundly disagree; they believe that the reality, whether liberal non-hawks accept it or not, is that a military incursion into Iran is extremely unlikely -- the Bush administration seems to have shorn itself of all those policymakers (John Bolton, etc) who advocate direct action, now. They believe that Condi has won the battle against (allegedly) the invade-Iran hardliners like Dick Cheney.

Continue reading "Liberal Hawks and Iran" »

Supreme Court Deals Blow To Labor Unions

From SCOTUSBLOG:

In the final of three decisions on the merits Thursday, the Court ruled that it is not a violation of the First Amendment for a state to bar a labor union representing government employees from using non-union workers' dues for political causes if those workers have not explicitly consented. The result was approved unanimously, but there were three partial concurring votes. The decision, written by Justice Antonin Scalia, was issued in a pair of consolidated cases, Davenport v. Washington Education Association (05-1589) and Washington v. Washington Education Association (05-1657).

The Daily... Bleat

## Michael Behe's new book promises a revolutionary take on irreducible complexity. Jerry Coyne sees more of the same.

## A beautiful visualization of air traffic control patterns:

## Europeans are taller. Americans are shorter. Why?

## How do detectives figure out who's lying? By asking suspects to tell their stories in reverse. (via Mind Hacks). A useful technique for journalists, too?

## Michael Gerson again bemoans the state of his party:

Today, in both parties, fundamentalism is again the fashion; authenticity is the prime directive. Talk-radio conservatism assaults the most obviously Catholic elements of Bushism -- a role for government in compassion and a welcoming attitude toward immigrants. "Purity" is defined as the empathy of Tom DeLay and the racial sensitivity of Tom Tancredo.

## Another architect of compassionate conservatism bemoans its death.

## Forget women. What impact would a Clinton nomination have on the male vote?

## Here is an essay question Richard Rorty once asked of his students:

Aliens from another planet, with vastly superior intelligence to humans, land on earth in order to consume humans as food. What argument could you make to convince the aliens not to eat us that would not also apply to our consumption of beef?

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"I've Got A Crush On Obama"

Not me...

This woman:

And also, Jin, the rapper (but not Jin Chon, the very famous Hillary Clinton spokesman).

Write The Lede For A Story About McCain's Day

How will the press cover Sen. John McCain's decision today to jab Mitt Romney on abortion and Hillary Clinton on earmarks?

If Mitt Romney was editing the copy, the lede of the story would wind up like this:

Sen. John McCain, in a final sign that his flailing campaign is stuttering to a finish, angrily attacked Mitt Romney for no good reason and betrayed his desparation by using a four-year-old out-of-context YouTube video to get attention. Golly.

It's true that the laws of political physics very rarely account for the political equivalent of full-frontal nudity in June. In past cycles, McCain would be declared a dead-man walking because no one attacks this early unless they're in trouble.

But those laws may be inoperative. The new political-geographical-media-technological landscape operates by a set of completely different rules. The metrics are different. The chess board is multidimensional.

It'll take a few cycles to figure out the limits of these new laws. As Jonathan Martin points out, by every conventional metric (except for, arguably, fundraising -- $15M a quarter isn't bad) -- McCain has some challenges.

Bob Novak is analytically vicious in his nonlinkable column:

More significant are the negative motivations for supporting the top three candidates, and McCain in particular. As we have argued previously, much Republican support for the top three stands on three pillars, or the Three D's: disagreement with Giuliani, distrust of Romney and dislike for McCain. For example, a conservative Republican who feels overwhelmed by antipathy toward Romney and Giuliani will reluctantly back McCain on these or similar grounds: "McCain may be too liberal on taxes and guns, but at least he is very conservative on earmarks and spending, he's tough on terrorism, and he has a pro-life voting record on abortion." The same sort of thinking applies, in varying degree, to all three candidates.

But with the entry of Thompson into the race, many conservatives will feel -- rightly or wrongly -- that they may have a conservative alternative and need not settle for someone they merely distrust or dislike less than the others. This is the key to Thompson's effortless success so far, his climb from nowhere to 21 percent nationally. (It is also a reason Thompson could suddenly implode once he is defined.)

With Thompson's candidacy all but declared, the outlook becomes even more bleak for McCain. The big money that McCain has been courting could instead flow to the newcomer. Romney, who will never be without money, is sprinting ahead in the early states. Giuliani remains the overall frontrunner. Thompson is luring McCain supporters into his camp.

McCain may be able to overcome any one of these setbacks, but can he survive them all simultaneously? The futures markets are already counting him out, putting his contract at $12 to the $29 price on Thompson.

Clinton And McCain Scuffle Over Earmarks

Hillary Clinton's campaign responded rapidly today to Sen. John McCain's charges on earmarks -- even before McCain had the chance to make his case.

Campaign spokesman Phil Singer suggests that McCain has praised the very bill he's now trashing. The AZ Senator did so on May 25.

Maximizing the transparency of Members' requests is fundamental to good governance. As stewards of taxpayers' dollars, it is our duty to spend the people's money responsibly, and to do it in an open and honest fashion. I am pleased that the committee has accepted that responsibility. This year's bill proves that a strong national defense and saving taxpayers' dollars are — as it should be — bipartisan priorities. I thank Chairman Levin for his leadership and support

The McCain campaign's response: "We’re praising the earmark reforms which added transparency and now allow us to know about Hillary’s earmarks."

(Well -- the headline of the release was: "SENATOR McCAIN COMMENDS COMMITTEE PASSAGE OF NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION FY '08")

Continue reading "Clinton And McCain Scuffle Over Earmarks" »

Tommy Thompson Vows To Participate In Ames

On a conference call with reporters, ex-WI Gov. Tommy Thompson said he knew that many reporters were dialing to see "whether or not I was dropping out of the race, putting my quest for the Republican nomination for the Republican Party for the president of the United States." -- he assume he meant to say "on hold."

So

I wanted everyone to know that I am every much involved in this campaign. From the beginning a big part of my campaign has always included the August straw poll which is held in Ames. I’ve always felt it was a great opportunity for my campaign to show our tremendous strength of support. ... Not to take advantage of this opportunity is a mistake. ... I will definitely participate in the Iowa straw poll on August 7th.

Also:

My fundraising is going to be adequate but not great.

Guilt By Association: Rezko's In The News Again

Tony Rezko is back in the news. Per the Chicago Sun Times: "As a state senator, Barack Obama wrote letters to city and state officials supporting his political patron Tony Rezko's successful bid to get more than $14M from taxpayers to build apartments for senior citizens." The apartments were not in Obama's state senate district.

Rezko is a sketchy character; Obama has denied ever helping him; the implication here is that Obama rewarded a fat-cat developer with taxpayer cash and therefore is just likely every other Chicago politician.

Obama's campaign responds by saying that all the Sun-Times really did was suggest that Obama "supported his constituents while in the state senate." The project, they note, was widely supported by city officials. And Rezko never asked Obama to write a letter on its behalf.
Obama has had a career dedicated to fighting for the strictist possible ethical reforms," an Obama aide said. "We're not really worried by this."

You can read the full Obama campaign response after the jump.

If Barack Obama's opponents ever try to attack him in a television ad, you can bet that Rezko will make an appearance. It's basically the only arrow in their quiver. "We've finally got the quo for the quid pro quo," an aide to an Obama rival told me.

Based on conversations with Obama critics, here is one script -- and the visuals -- you might see. I am not endorsing the content of this ad... only pointing out how the "facts" can be forced into an unflattering narrative that can hurt Obama. It's one of the reasons why Obama's campaign wants to get out in front of this. Again -- if you're a pro-Obama person, take a deep breath, do not accuse me of being unfair, do not confuse the positive with the normative, and consider the following as a preview of what your candidate's opponents will use to try to discredit Obama.

The spot starts with Obama's on-camera denial that he ever did favors for indicted Chicago developer Tony Rezko.

Then -- flash to a newspaper headline.

Then -- the narrator:

"Obama says his campaign is different. Oh really?"

Is this fair?

Again, you can read the full Obama response after the jump.

Continue reading "Guilt By Association: Rezko's In The News Again" »

Rudy, Romney Agree On First Iowa Debate: McCain, Thompson TBD

Though he won't participate in the Ames straw, ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will attend the First In Iowa debate in August hosted by ABC's George Stephanopoulos. Mitt Romney said yes too.

ABC is waiting to hear from Fred Thompson and John McCain.

Tommy Thompson's Not Dropping Out

Funny how quickly everyone assumed he was.

He's going to talk about Ames.

YouTube Wars: Romney After The Epiphany

Another frontal assault from the McCain presidential campaign:

Six months after Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney was convinced by a Harvard doctor that (a) Harvard doctors can be crass and (b) life began at conception, he reiterated his promise to Massachusetts voters that he would not fiddle with the state's abortion laws.

Contradiction? I wrote about Romney's conversion for National Journal and came away with the impression that the Harvard incident began the process, rather than ended it -- that it took time before Romney fully came to realize that the pro-life position was correct.

Also, Romney has always claimed that, even after his personal revelation, he never went back on his promise to Massachusetts voters.

Update:

A Romney spokesman e-mails a response:

“Governor Romney is firmly pro-life and can rely on his record of having protected the sanctity of life when faced with those issues as governor.

"Governor Romney consistently maintained, in an effort to protect the sanctity of life, that he would fight attempts to weaken the state’s existing abortion laws. Maintaining existing laws in a state like Massachusetts was an important fight in and of itself.

It’s very troubling that the McCain campaign would attack the governor’s pro-life stance by trying to alter the context of a statement made at a news conference where he also made a passionate case for his veto of stem cell legislation that showed a level of disregard for the sanctity of human life.

The McCain campaign’s motives are obviously borne of desperation. Their actions are both sad and unfortunate.”

Continue reading "YouTube Wars: Romney After The Epiphany" »

McCain Jumps On Hillary's "Pork" Wagon

This is how you rebuild your public image among conservatives.

The Hill reports this morning that Sen. Hillary Clinton asked for 26 earmarks in the defense authorization bill totalling nearly $150M dollars. That's more than every other senator except for the chairman of the committee.

The RNC quickly sent around a "Research Memo" calling Clinton the "President of Pork."

And now, McCain plans to lambaste Clinton by name. He's holding a press conference at 2:30pm ET in California.

This is one of those non-zero sum political tactics. It's hard to envision how HRC is hurt by this in both the primary and the general. And it's easy to imagine how McCain earns some solid media coverage for his decision to take her on.

Tommy Thompson Promises A Major Announcement

I'll be the judge of that.

Tommy Thompson to Make Major Announcement about the Future of Presidential Campaign

Today
Wednesday, June 13th
2:00 PM CT, 3:00 PM ET

Conference Call #: {REDACTED

Governor Thompson will make 5 minutes of remarks and then take questions
for 15 minutes.

How Thompson's Opponents Will Attack

Kenneth Vogel of the Politico, darn it, wrote this before I could, but here's a slightly different take on how Thompson's opponents are preparing to cut off his oxygen.

One -- "We'll say that he's the candidate of unfilfilled expectations," one aide to a Thompson rival says. "He was in the Senate and did nothing. He was the chairman of a committee that investigated the Clinton's campaign finance and did nothing. He was a leader on nothing, except for McCain-Feingold."

In fact, as McCain advisers will say, Thompson helped to write the legislation.

"He's very similar to McCain-lite," a Thompson critic who is obviously not affiliated with McCain's campaign says.

Two -- "he is the ultimate insider posing as the outsider." His lobbying ties are one thing -- but look who he surrounds himself with. "Mary Matalin. Liz Cheney. Hollywood liberals. He lived in the Beltway."

Three -- pressure him to debate and constantly bombard the media with negative appraisals of his performances. One opposing campaign is having trouble assessing how Thompson would perform in presidential debates because they don't believe he's ever really debated anyone outside of a prosecutorial context.

Four -- They'll claim that he's really a centrist. In the Senate, he was a member of the Senate centrist coalition with John McCain, Susan Collins, and, for heaven sakes, Linc Chafee. He switched his positions on abortion right before he ran for Senate, switched his position on immigration, and single-handedly blocked Republican efforts to pass torm reform legislation in the 90s.

Five -- the laziness quotient. Even though Thompson was a prolific campaigner, his opponents will go out of their way to compare his campaign work ethic with their own.

Six -- Behind the scenes, expect enforcers for McCain, Romney and Giuliani to put heavy pressure on Republican fundraisers not to hedge their bets on Thompson.

Seven -- historical comparisons. They'll call him the "Wes Clark" of the 2008 cycle, implying that he is a celebrity candidate pushed into the race by sycophants.

Out Of Context: Jarring. In Context: Not So Much

On Monday, The Tennessean broke the news that Sen. Fred Thomspon wrote on a 1996 interest group questionnaire that he did "not believe should should be criminalized. This battle will be won in the hearts and souls of the American people."

For a guy with a 100% pro-life voting record, it's a little jarring.

A rival campaign sent us the actual questionnaire:

On another questionnaire, Thompson indicated he did not know -- or did not want to say -- whether life began at conception.

The whole questionnaire, which is 3 MBs too long to upload, shows that Thompson supported virtually every other conceivable type of pro-life legislation. In context, Thompson's clearly a pro-lifer who, like President Bush, doesn't want to impose a government ban on abortion and who, like most Republicans, support exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother.

Does life begin at conception? Perhaps Thompson's non-answer provides a clue to the content of his religious beliefs. Maybe he didn't really know -- and in any event, didn't think it really mattered in order to oppose abortion.

An editorial comment from me: One of the sad orthodoxies of politics -- common to liberals and conservative pressure groups -- is that far too often, you're not right if you're on the correct side of an issue. Necessary but not sufficient. You're only right when you're on the right side for the officially sanctioned reason.

Meek Is Strong

Rep. Kendrick Meek wants to endorse Hillary Clinton on his terms, dammit.

"The Regression Towards The Clinton Mean"

Stephen Spielberg flirted with Barack Obama but decided instead to date ol' reliable. HillaryHub, the Clinton campaign's internal Drudge Report bulletin board, features a statement from the filmmaker.

“I’ve taken the time to familiarize myself with the impressive field of Democratic candidates and am convinced that Hillary Clinton is the most qualified candidate to lead us from her first day in the White House,” Spielberg said. “Hillary is a strong leader and is respected the world over. As president, she will bring America back together, rebuild our prestige abroad and ensure our protection here at home.”

Hello, Hollywood Hills: Spielberg's endorsement matters only in the context that he objectively evaluated the Dem field and chose Hillary. Believe it or not, he provides cover for other on-the-fence Hollywood types to follow suit. He might only raise $100,000 for Clinton, but his approval could be worth $1M to the campaign if his friends and neighbors and other Democratic donors follow his cues.

"The regression towards the Clinton mean" is how one Clinton sympathizer put it to us.

New ARG Polls Show Drop, Drop, Drop

Basically, everyone is dropping 'xcept for HRC:

New ARG polls of the Democratic and GOP primary electorate show a strong lead for Hillary Clinton, a 12 point drop for Barack Obama since March, a 6 point drop for John Edwards since March, a 10 point drop for Rudy Giuliani since March, a 10 point drop for John McCain since March, and the traditional Rudy-gets-women, McCain-gets-men split.

Watch later for a new NBC News/WSJ polls of both primary electorates.

The Daily... Blurt?

1. Tommy Thompson's out with a radio ad in Iowa. Listen here. The topic: Iraq. Kudos to a Republican presidential candidate to getting out in front of the issue.

2. Here's Bill Richardson's latest. The Barbara Walters reference makes this old ABC'er laugh.

BILL RICHARDSON: Global warming is critical for the next president. And no other state has done as much as New Mexico.

We passed tax credits for wind, solar and biofuels. Utility companies have to use renewable sources. And I set tough standards to reduce greenhouse emissions.

President Bush doesn't follow the Kyoto Treaty, but my state does. I can do all that as president.

JOB INTERVIEWER: But what I asked you was if you were a tree, what kind of tree would you be?

BILL RICHARDSON [v/o]: I'm Bill Richardson, and I approved this message.

NB: Is there less to Richardson than meets the resume? That's the thesis of Ryan Lizza, who agrees that Richardson's charisma has served him well but concludes he is more negotiator than diplomat.

3. A new ad from Sen. Chris Dodd:

CHRISTOPHER DODD: I was blessed to become a first-time father at age 57. Our daughter, Grace, was born two days after 9/11 into a very changed world.

I want my campaign to be about all of our children and the kind of world we give them. I intend to offer the boldest, most creative approaches I can to make our country more secure, to stop global warming and to restore our moral leadership.

I'm Chris Dodd. I'm running for president, and I approved this message, because I know that America can lead the world again.

4. Cool new interactive campaign map from the FEC.

5. Dina Titus endorses HRC. We remember how HRC was the first '08er to call Titus after she lost the NV GOV race...

With Due Respect To Chris Lehane

Will the press _please_ stop labeling him a neutral observer?

It's true that he's not being paid by the Clintons, but he is closer to that world than to the campaigns of any other candidates, and one Clinton adviser confirms that he's an unofficial "FOC" - a friend of the campaign.

Edwards's On The Cover Of Men's Vogue

It's the next issue, as Roger Federer is still the coverboy on the website.

'08 Rankings: Giuliani, Romney, McCain, Thompson

Each week, NBC News political director Chuck Todd and I collaborate on what we call our 2008 race rankings. Based on where the race is today, we project, in a ranking, who has the best chance to win the nomination. These rankings change weekly, which testities to the enormous influence of external events on the race. Don't take them too seriously.

At about the midpoint of the year, a few things are clear -- Fred Thompson will run, John McCain is in trouble, Rudy Giuliani is not invincible and Mitt Romney still has many thresholds to cross.

There are so many more unknowns: whether McCain will have enough money to be viable, whether the Ames straw poll will help second-tier candidates, whether immigration stays at the top of the agenda, etc. And then, as Donald Rumsfeld would say, there are the unknown unknowns.

1 -- Rudy Giuliani -- He's had some crisp debate performances, handled the necessary Ames dropout and is raising lots of money. But he's not the strongest front-runner in the field. Every poll we've seen suggests Fred Thompson will hurt him more than the C.W. says. We -- and Rudy -- will know in two weeks just how deep his support is. The inch-deep celebrity support will peel off, so the question is, how much of his support is based on his celebrity? Keep an eye on this surprisingly tight Rudy-McCain axis developing. The two seem to have teamed up a bit, at least when it comes to dealing with Romney (and maybe Thompson).

2. Mitt Romney -- He leads in Iowa and New Hampshire due to his TV spending and hundreds of thousands of voter contacts. The press doesn't like his debate performances but dial groups do. His sons are major assets. The Ames decisions by Rudy and McCain have given Romney a good problem to have -- Iowa expectations. The downside, of course, is that Iowa is to Romney what Iowa is to Edwards. It's the whole ballgame. If Romney loses Iowa, he's done. It doesn't matter how much money he pours in; he HAS to win Iowa. The other candidates couldn't be happier about that, because if there's a way to stop the self-funder early, they are ecstatic. We'll be interested to see how his break with Bush on Iraq will play -- it's a tricky move, but could pay off. The GOP base seems to be looking for an anti-Bush.

3. John McCain -- Two theories: He's a dead man walking. Or: He's viable, polling second or third in the major states without spending money, he's still able to set the agenda and wow the press, he's raising money and building good S.C. and Iowa organizations. The problem McCain has is that the press corps is waiting to work itself into an obit frenzy. McCain haters will say, "Serves you right. Live by the media sword, die by it." But frankly, what the press is doing to him isn't justified yet. The campaign has set some fair markers, particularly second-quarter money -- if he's second or third in money raised (not self-funding), then why is he not a player? It's crazy to write off a guy who is raising some $15M a quarter. McCain's biggest problem may not be in the GOP primary, but in the Dem primary; Obama is winning indies in N.H. -- the same folks who voted for McCain in '00.

Continue reading our 2008 Republican Race Rankings on NationalJournal.com

Mark Warner For Vice President?

Virginia is squarely in the center of Mark Warner's future political ambitions: "He's looking at the 2008 Senate race or the governor's race in '09: The other thing hasn't even come up," says Lars Anderson, his spokesman.

The "other thing" is the vice presidential nomination, and while Warner may shy away from those discussions today -- smart of him to do, of course, because becoming veep is never one of those jobs you have to pretend you don't want -- some of his friends and political donors are trying to nurture his national political aspirations.

And now, two people close to Warner say he has told them -- when they ask -- that he would be open to accepting the vice presidential nomination. "If asked he would accept," said one Democrat close to Warner who asked not to be identified.

Before he decided not to run for president, Warner recruited dozens of Democratic donors and wealthy friends to help him raise $50M in six months. Many have now migrated to other campaigns. Those donors from New Jersey -- Wall Street types, hedge funders -- often extole his virtues to Sen. Hillary Clinton, and those who joined Sen. Barack Obama's campaign have been talking Warner up to several members of Obama's inner circle. Since he decided in November of last year not to run for president, Warner has traveled to more than a dozen states and kept in contact with major Democratic party donors and his presidential staff.

It's too early for Warner himself to begin to lobby for the position, and a friend says flatly that he is "not running for VP." But in this game, one often has to be invited to participate, and it's likely that Warner's name will be among the first floated by the Democratic nominee.

The vice presidential balance sheet looks like this. Warner is fairly well vetted, having survived a brutal election in Virginia and some of the pre-presidential scrutiny. He is undeniably smart and hard-working, has an attractive family and wife, has innovative ideas and knows how to run business. His political attraction, on one level, is unmatched. His advisers believe that, if he were on the ticket, he'd give the Democrats a real shot to win Virginia. On the other hand, he has no national security experience to speak of. Politically, he'd complement a candidate who polarized or a candidate who had experience but who wanted someone different.

Here's the main truth about the veep selection: it's hard to believe this from reading Bob Shrum's account of how John Kerry was picked, but the overwhelming majority of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Bill Richardson's advisers will tell their candidates that they can only pick someone with whom they are explictly and deeply compatible.

Warner's biggest challenge, should he decide to be courted, is to evince compatibility.

Warner today is the keynote speaker at an event sponsored by Democracy, the new Dem big-think magazine, about fiscal policy. Ex-Harvard pres/Treasury sec. Lawrence Summers is among the speakers. One of Democracy's co-founders, Kenneth Baer, was a Warner presidential adviser.

McCain Loses One More Fundraiser, But There's A But

Georgette Mosbacher, an early supporter of Sen. John McCain and a top Republican fundraiser, has decided to raise money for another candidate: Sen. Fred Thompson.

Mosbacher, the CEO of Borghese, a cosmetic company, was a national chair of McCain's first presidential campaign.

But there's a pretty good reason she's decided to move on: Mosbacher is one of Thompson's closest friends and was, in the 1990s, his date.

Mosbacher is enough of a Republican luminary to be able to get away with raising money for both McCain and Thompson, although McCain's campaign expects her to devote most of her efforts in the future to Thompson.

So far, as noted below, only two McCain fundraisers have left to join Thompson's campaign, despite an aggressive lobbying effort to convince McCain donors like Fred Malek and Fed-Ex CEO Fred Smith to change sides.

Media Bias Watch: McCain's Gaining Support?

The news that John Dowd, a former lawyer for Sen. John McCain and one of his signed-up fundraisers, decided to endorse Sen. Fred Thompson made it onto the front page of the Washington Post under the headline: "Defections to Fred Thompson Pose a Major Threat to McCain."

Dowd was not one of McCain's top fundraisers. He raised only $7,000 for the McCain campaign. And so far, Fred Thompson hasn't managed to flip any other major McCain donor.

Today, the news that the state senate president in Utah has decided to rescind his endorsement of Mitt Romney and instead endorse Sen. John McCain hasn't really caught on. It's not generating much blogger buzz and the political press doesn't seem to care.

The press is now anchored to the view that John McCain is flailing and collectively, we're likely to interpret major endorsements as outliers, rather than as "signs of momentum" or any positive description.

Your Daily Fred Thompson Update

## Jeff Birnbaum writes in the Washington Post today on Thompson's lobbying career. It's the closest look we have, and because it comes from Birnbaum, you're probably reading an example of self-generated reporting, rather than oppo ginned up by an opponent. Bottom line: do enough Republicans care that Thompson was a good lobbyist?

## Chris Cillizza on Fred Thompson's inner circle. There aren't as many Tennessee names as one might think. And Frist-ites are almost entirely absent.

## What's Thompson's exit strategy? In other words -- where does he think he needs to win, place or show in order to win the nomination? Common sense says South Carolina, but thanks a hyperaggressive early effort from Sen. John McCain and a counter-effort by Mitt Romney, there aren't too many

Giuliani Will, He Will, He Will, He Will

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani "comes close to having an official "announcement" today by unveiling his "why me" speech today in New Hampshire," says First Read, and as grounding principles go, Giuliani's Twelve Commitments to the American People are fairly representative of his conservative governance approach.

Note the intersection between social conservatism -- that is, a conservative approach to problems of the social structure (schools, health care), economic conservatism -- a conservative approach to reform of the economy, and anti-terror conservatism -- a " " " combating terrorism.

Compare that with Mitt Romney's three-legged stool, which describes a political conceputalization of those same principles: conservatism of military, the economy, and family.

Giuliani:

I will keep America on offense in the Terrorists’ War on Us. I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders, and identify every non-citizen in our nation. I will restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful Washington spending. I will cut taxes and reform the tax code. I will impose accountability on Washington. I will lead America towards energy independence. I will give Americans more control over, and access to, healthcare with affordable and portable free-market solutions. I will increase adoptions, decrease abortions, and protect the quality of life for our children. I will reform the legal system and appoint strict constructionist judges. I will ensure that every community in America is prepared for terrorist attacks and natural disasters. I will provide access to a quality education to every child in America by giving real school choice to parents. I will expand America’s involvement in the global economy and strengthen our reputation around the world.

LAT/Bloomberg Poll: Inside The Numbers

Some interesting nuggets from the new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg national poll:

## Women love Rudy

Men are dividing their vote – 30% each – for Giuliani and Thompson, while women give Giuliani more than a 10 point advantage or more over the top three candidates

## Mitt Romney attracts twice the number of independents McCain does

## Nearly half of the Republican primary electorate are not particularly concerned with abortion.

Also, nearly two out of five Republican primary voters said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate that favors abortion rights, 11% said it would make them more likely and 48% said it would not factor into their decision. This issue is a litmus test for the religious right. Nearly two-thirds of those who consider themselves religiously conservative said it would make them less likely to vote for a candidate who favors abortion rights.

## The Democratic electorate is divided between partisan Dems and independents Dems

Three in 10 of Democratic voters who cited a candidate who can bring the country together, supports Obama, while more than half of those who mention long experience in policy making back the NY Senator.

## Obama's doing well among educated women

Interestingly, women with higher education are split – 29% for Clinton and 27% for Obama, but women less educated (high school or less) are supporting Clinton over Obama with a huge 25 point advantage.

Put Catchy Name For Nuggets Not Worthy Of Full Post Here

1. Before Rudy Giuliani attends a town hall meeting into the delegate-rich state of Delaware Thursday, he'll partake in a bit of fundraising. He's hosting a two-tiered event at the University of Delaware's Goodstay Center in Wilmington. For $1,000, you can watch Rudy dine on eggs and bacon and get a VIP pic and attend a private meet and greet. For $250, you get breakfast. If you're under 35, you need to pay only $150. The event is hosted by Newcastle Co. GOP chair Tom Ross. Ohboyohboyohboy look at this list of Giuliani bundlers. Some Pioneers and Rangers, but lots of new money. That's a good thing for Rudy.

2. Sen. Hillary Clinton will receive what her campaign is billing a "major" national endorsement tomorrow. It's Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), per the AP. Clinton also gets a big Nevada endorsement tomorrow.

3. Straw poll update:

Next week, The Campaign for America's Future's Take Back America conference features Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Richardson and other presidentials ... and a straw poll conducted by The Politico.

4. Straw poll update:

NFRA Grassroots Presidential Endorsement Convention Committee is excited to announce that we will be welcoming former House Majority Leader Tom Delay to St. Louis this August. Tom Delay will be the keynote speaker of the Ronald Reagan Awards Banquet, which will take place on Saturday, August 4.

They're doing a straw poll, too. The Nat'l Federation of Republican Assemblies calls itself the Republican Wing of The Republican party. Copyright.

5. Gov. Mike Huckabee gives fashion advice:

Q: I read that you're against miniskirts.

A: If a person dresses provocatively, they're calling attention -- maybe not the most desirable kind -- to private parts of their body.

Q: What about a burka?

A: No, that hides everything. I think a person's hair, arms, shoulders, legs are an appropriate display of who they are. I want people to be attracted to me because they find me interesting, not because I'm wearing something ... well, I doubt I own anything provocative.

Q: How about a minskirt?

A: A thong.

Clinton Memo Gloats About New Hampshire Lead

One day, we'll make the argument that HRC is in a better position vis-a-vis Iowa than her opponents might think. Today is not that day. For now, here's a memo the Clinton campaign is proudly distributing. Remember, though, independents vote in New Hampshire!

To: Interested Parties

From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist

Date: June 11, 2007

Re: Strengths of Hillary Emerging

The public polls taken following last week’s Democratic debate in New Hampshire are now being reported on.

Hillary’s strength as a leader is emerging in the face-to-face forums and in that debate. Today’s WMUR/CNN poll is the second post-debate poll to give Hillary a commanding lead in New Hampshire – at 39% for Hillary Clinton to 24% for Obama and 14% for Edwards.

Hillary Clinton is up 9 points from their previous poll and this trend follows a Franklin Pierce poll done earlier in the week that had similar results and which showed her as overwhelmingly winning the debate.

What makes this so important is that when the candidates are on the same stage, Hillary Clinton’s strengths as a leader clearly emerge. They are reshaping the dynamic of the race because those appearances emphasize the qualities that the next president will need to be ready to implement a program of change.

While each of the candidates has introduced themselves to the voters of New Hampshire, this was the first major televised event in New Hampshire that let the voters see the candidates unfiltered for two straight hours.

The poll also shows that most voters consider her the most electable of the potential Democratic challengers.

This poll comes after several other national polls (Fox/Opinion Dynamics, AP) showing her holding a double-digit lead nationally. Some commentators have then said we should instead look at the state by state numbers as more important and today’s poll shows how those numbers can change after they see all the candidates and how there is a big upside for Senator Clinton when they get a chance to compare the candidates on the issues.

The latest CNN/WMUR New Hampshire poll shows Hillary Clinton dramatically increasing her lead in the Democratic primary, and also demonstrates that she is seen as the strongest leader and the most electable Democrat.

Edwards Adviser Blasts Blogosphere, Too

Writes Dave "Mudcat" Sanders on Time's Swampland:

"In his column, Joe said, "...the smart stuff is being drowned out by a fierce, bullying, often witless tone of intolerance that has overtaken the left-wing sector of the blogosphere." Amen.

I have bitched and moaned for years about the lack of tolerance in the elitist wing of the Democratic Party, or what I refer to as the "Metropolitan Opera Wing". These are the people who talk of tolerance but the only true tolerance they ever exhibit is for their own pseudo-intellectual arrogance.

Saunders is a paid consultant to Sen. John Edwards, who has, shall we say, quite assiduously courted the blogosphere and whose senior adviser, Joe Trippi, is a godfather of the netroots. And Elizabeth Edwards is an active participant in what Saunders calls the "Metropolitain Opera Wing" of the Democratic Party.

Score one for intellectual diversity in the Edwards campaign.

One piece of advice for Saunders: if you don't like the music, don't go to the opera.

Andy Smith Doesn't Poll New Hampshire Without Independents

A new CNN/University of New Hampshire poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton slightly widening her lead in New Hampshire and suggests that Sen. John Edwards has seen his support cut in half. Also benefiting just slightly outside the margin of error: ex-NM Gov. Bill Richardson.

Clinton         36%       27%
Obama        22%        20%
Edwards      12%       21%
Gore         12%         11%
Richardson   10%       4%

Without Al Gore in the race, Clinton's support jumps to nearly 39%, and the rest of the candidates all gain a few points. Clinton gets high marks for being a "strong leader" and is the most likely to win the general, per these 309 New Hampshire Democrats. Obama is seen as the most "likeable." 57% say Iraq is their most important voting issue.

All's well and good, but Barack Obama's Granite State support comes from independent men and women, and this poll ... does indeed account for them, despite what an earlier post insinuated.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.5%.

Dems Urged To Sit In Nat'l Sec. Catbird Seat

A new strategy memo sent to Democratic presidential candidates by the DNC and Third Way warns that if the party doesn't tip the evolving national security debate in their favor, Republicans could easily regain their sizable advantage over Democrats on that particular issue. As recently as '04, independents turned to Pres. Bush because Dems -- John Kerry -- was ill-perceived.

The "significant test" faced by Democrats: "they must ensure that the short term gain in public opinion does not contribute to a long term deficit in public confidence."

What does that mean in non-pollsterese? Democrats need to convince voters that their anti-terrorism strategy puts America on the offense against threats.

Every time Democrats talk about security, whether it is Iraq, Afghanistan, terrorism, or any other threat, they should note their plans for success that would put us on the offense against our nation’s enemies.

This sounds obvious, but many Democrats still speak of their anti-terrorism policies as primarily defensive, and they have trouble translating concepts -- like a global effort to re-engage Islam -- into national security precepts. Many Dems are reluctant to use words like "offense" and "proactive," because the administration has successfully drawn a circle around that part of the debate. Dems don't want "offense" to equal pre-emptive strikes against sovereign states. Instead, they equate "offense" with intervention in Kosovo and Afghanistan, two perfectly reasonable examples that might not resonate with security-conscious voters.

Republicans, and Rudy Giuliani in particular, have framed the offense-defense dichotomy as follows: if we don't get 'em overseas, they'll get us here. That elides easily into efforts to link Democratic date-setting in Congress to surrendering. The memo cites Giuliani:

If any Republican is elected president – and I think obviously I would be the best at this – we will remain on offense and will anticipate what (the terrorists) will do and try to stop them before they do it. I listen a little to the Democrats, and if one of them gets elected, we are going on defense. We will wave the white flag on Iraq. We will cut back on the Patriot Act, electronic surveillance, interrogation and we will be back to our pre-Sept. 11 attitude of defense.

The good news for Dems: national polling suggests that voters aren't reacting to that argument particularly well. The bad news for Dems: Dems aren't getting the benefit of the doubt either. Independents still believe that Dems are:

• “They are unwilling to use military force, event when it’s necessary to protect America” (59-38%) (Even a small majority of Democrats ascribed this more to their own party than to Republicans.) • “They are not tough enough to do what is needed to protect America” (57-41%)

The solutions are:

(a) pretend this problem doesn't exist
(b) assume it's not enough of a problem to matter
(c) resell old policies using new language
(d) come up with new policies that directly address this concern
(e) figure out how to defenstrate national security from its (still) Republican framing.

Here's the full memo. BTW: one of the authors, Cornell Belcher, is a pollster for Barack Obama and for the DNC.

YouTube Wars: Thompson On Abortion

This YouTube video brought to you by a Republican rival.

YouTube Wars: Thompson On Abortion

This YouTube video brought to you by a Republican rival.

Two Parties, ONE Solution?

Project ONE Vote launches today with a rare stamp of approval from both political parties: The Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee both endorsed the global anti-poverty initiative today. Can this ideologically sorted country ever get behind a unified solution to poverty and HIV/AIDS?

There are at least four major "non-partisan" efforts to influence the 2008 elections. Two of them -- ONE and Edin08.gov, are funded in part by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Another is a consolidated effort to force the presidential candidates to put forth detailed plans to combat global warming. And then there's Unity08, which is creating a ballot slot for a Dem/GOP unity ticket. All seek to bridge differences, assuming that the distance between the two sides is narrow enough for a bridge to be built.

It's easy to initially dismiss ONE as a feel-good vessel for disaffected pols to get the political equivalent of tax write-offs for their "bipartisan" instincts But never before, really, have such well-funded, well-managed, tech-savvy interest groups tried to play a serious role in influencing the contours of the presidential primary debates. One one level, it's hard to see how ONE (and EdIn08.gov) will be all that different: of course the candidates will speak about poverty in a serious way, most will count HIV/AIDS eradication as among their top public health priorities; solutions will involve some combination of public/private initiative, and even Republicans will be hard-pressed to come up with policies that don't, in some way, involve the bureaucracy.

ONE's challenge twofold: one, to turn what candidates pay lip service to into something they worry about. They'll spend millions on television ads in early primary states. They'll deploy their celebrity coterie to whip up the humors of average Americans; they'll use Web 2.0 and social networking tools to complement their top-down communications efforts.

The second is to create a transpartisan set of solutions. That's going to be hard. The politics of poverty is perceived as intractable. Liberal and conservative solutions rarely overlap, and when they do, there are distinct political downsides for at least one of the political parties. Remember, the mass of Americans who want bipartisan solutions aren't the same Americans who vote in primaries. That's why Fred Thompson talks about bipartisan solutions and espouses fairly conventional Republican policies.

Democrats will always integrate the idea of individual responsibility into the framework of government welfare; vice- versa for Republicans. And the lever for "big solutions" will be always tilted against Republicans, because Democrats are still the party of government, and these campaigns are directed, after all, at those who run the government.

Will ONE work? The answer, I think, lies in the relative strength of the modernist evangelical political movement in the Republican Party. Think of Mike Huckabee, ONE campaign's Jack Oliver, Sen. Bill Frist, David Kuo, the National Association of Evangelicals, the "creation care" movement, and the like. How ONE influences them, and how they, in turn, influences others, will determine whether the new president chooses to focus on poverty.

In The PoliSci Journals.....Sam's Club Republicanism

Tim Conlan and John Dinan of George Mason University and Wake Forest University analyze Bush's approach to federalism. Ok, he doesn't have an explicit approach to federalism, but these profs can glean one from their interpretation of a variety of Bush utterances and actions. Their Douthatian conclusion: federalism and Republican party politics often conflict. The party has come to appreciate the fruits of a larger, more robust federal government and have warmed to the idea of using the instruments of federal power to achieve conservative ends.

Scholars Sidney Milkis and Jesse Rhodes puzzle over the contrast between the GOP's thematic preference for limited government and the "principal" Bush domestic legacy, which they say is the "centralization of power in the federal government and the executive branch."

The News...

Fred Thompson is the contractually obligated pitchman for a credit repair company with a sketchy past.

Meanwhile, Thompson's equivocal answers on abortion were not just limited to one questionnaire.

Colin Powell might endorse a Democrat in '08; he's met twice with Barack Obama.

The Los Angeles Times is soon to be out with a poll with very bad national numbers for John McCain.

The ONE Vote campaign to end poverty launches today, with Tom Daschle and Bill First in the catbird's seat.

Clinton Opposes South Korean Trade Agreement

A nice little gift for organized labor:

Hillary Clinton today announced that she will oppose ratification of the South Korean Free Trade Agreement. Speaking at a townhall event hosted by the AFL-CIO in Detroit, Michigan, Clinton said the agreement would harm the U.S. automotive industry and put American jobs at risk. While the trade agreement gives South Korea unimpeded access to the U.S. auto market, it does not go far enough to ensure that South Korea dismantles the barriers that have long blocked American vehicles from being sold there.

PS: A small little endorsement snafu: seems that Rep. Kendrick Meeks is a little confused about whether he intended to endorse Mrs. Clinton.

McCain's Immigration Albatross... Still There, But

Has the Senate’s defeat of a comprehensive immigration bill somehow lifted a putrid albatross from around the neck of John McCain? That’s the rapidly congealing conventional wisdom.

McCain has toiled and moiled over immigration for a long time. He’s always had a set of clear principles. But he embraced this ungainly, 4000 page compromise – a product of the Ag Lobby, a weakened White House, Ted Kennedy, Jon Kyl’s best efforts, the quiet help of the Chamber of Commerce, the pragmatic acquiescence of Latino and immigration rights groups – when he could well have stepped away, put his hands up, and fallen back and said he was waiting for a better bill.

But immigration is, like so many subjects, personal to McCain because it represented to him a chance to legislate – to get something done – in Washington for the good of the American people. That idea – that there is amid the gloom and pork and interest-group steel traps of Washington a spark of civility that could, with the right amount of kindling, fuel a grand compromise – really gets him in the gut. And in the first few days after the compromise legislation was unveiled, McCain seemed to take joy in inhabiting the slot of its only national defender.

Continue reading "McCain's Immigration Albatross... Still There, But" »

The Boilerplate, 6/8

Seems like Newt Gingrich really has a hankering for Rudy Giuliani. What Gingrich calls "metrics" Rudy calls "CompStat."

In handicapping the current Republican race, he had good things to say about Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, but he said between campaign finance reform and immigration, John McCain faces the "greatest challenge" of capturing the nomination.

Gingrich said that while he disagrees with Giuliani on social issues and believes those issues "really matter," in a world where a nuclear weapon could destroy an American city, Giuliani can make a case for himself. He said that Giuliani has done a much better job as a candidate than most people expected.

During his formal remarks, Gingrich also singled out Giuliani for praise, using his reforms as mayor as a prime example of how government can be made to function properly by measuring results.

Fred Thompson's headed to South Carolina on 6/30 and New Hampshireon 6/29. No word yet on an Iowa trip. Sources there say Thompson is looking for a good party fundraiser to attend.

Robert Bork wants $1,000,000 from the Yale Club of New York. I didn't like their hotel when I stayed there either, but...

I may be four floors up, but I'll always find time for Hotline TV.

Guilt By Association Day: Mark Penn

Yesterday, we reported about how Hillary Clinton's chief adviser, Mark Penn, decided to recuse himself from managing any of his PR firms' clients involved in anti-labor activities. Penn was the subject of several articles lambasting his work for corporations and questioning whether Hillary Clinton should take the advice of the CEO of a company that has helped to thwart labor organizing drives. The Nation's Ari Berman asked Clinton adviser Harold Ickes how one recuses oneself from work one claims not to be doing?

Ickes's response: "

The logic of the question has considerable merit. Mark has told us that he is taking extra steps to assure people on the outside that he does not engage with clients that may be involved in controversial issues. The phrase 'Chinese wall' has been used."

Guilt By Association Day: Barack Obama

One of the hosts of tonight's Barack Obama fundraiser in Chicago: David Brint, a former vice president at indicted developer Antoin Rezko's firm.

Per this morning's Chicago Tribune, Obama declined to accept more contributions from Rezko associates.

By the way: this Wikipedia entry on Rezko includes just one subhead: "Controversy With Barack Obama."

Should Fred Thompson Participate In The Ames Straw Poll?

Fred Thompson's not likely to participate in the Ames straw poll, which suffered the defection this week of two top candidates.

But a solid argument can be made that he might want to take another look. The Washington Post reports that his advisers are meeting IA GOP exec. dir Chuck Laudner in DC today.

If Thompsom opts in, it would be audacious and unexpected and a way to show, at a minimum, that Thompson doesn't fear Mitt Romney's organizational prowess in Iowa.

Thompson wants to raise around $5M by August; we'd assume he wants to keep his campaign as flinty as possible. But spending a million on Ames might be a solid gamble. If he finishes anywhere near Mitt Romney, it'd be a huge win.

No one expects Thompson to even compete, so the momentum surge after even a second place finish would be considerable. And money would roll in, easily making up for whatever Thompson spent.

McCain Aide: Campaign Will Raise More Than Last Quarter

Sen. John McCain will raise more than $12.5M this fundraising quarter, surpassing last quarter's total and meeting the campaign's internal targets.

"We'll do better than we did last quarter," said John Weaver, McCain's chief stategist.

Weaver declined to say how much he thought McCain would ultimately raise. He dismissed as simply false a report that McCain was on track to raise less than $10M. Both Weaver and campaign manager Terry Nelson have said that reports that McCain would need to raise $20M to be viable did not reflect the thinking of the campaign or the candidate.

Advisers to the other Republican candidates refused to provide estimates for their fundraising, but it is generally expected that both Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani will come close to meeting -- or exceed -- their first quarter totals.

Note: An NBCer says that Tim Russert reported this on Wednesday.

Weird Headline Dept: Washington Post

First, the article reports only one defection from McCain. Second, why assume that only McCain's donors and activist supporters will defenestrate?

Guilt By Association Day: Joe Trippi And A Bad Nigerian Politician

Did Edwards senior adviser Joe Trippi really work for a "corrupt" Nigerian politican at the same time he worked for John Edwards?

No. He worked for a "corrupt" Nigerian politican right before he worked for John Edwards.

Today's Washington Post reports that:

In other Edwards news, a senior adviser, Joe Trippi, was a political consultant to a Nigerian vice president who was allegedly the intended recipient of a $90,000 bribe from Rep. William J. Jefferson (D-La.), who was indicted this week.

According to a filing with the Justice Department, Trippi was paid $20,000 as a consultant to then-Vice President Atiku Abubakar in his failed campaign to become Nigeria's president this spring. According to the newspaper the Hill, Trippi devised a text-messaging campaign for him and his party, the Action Congress.

Eric Schultz, an Edwards spokesman, said: "This has nothing to do with the campaign. Joe worked for him before John Edwards was running for president."

Abubakar is not a good guy -- he was, by some accounts, fairly brutal, allegedly bribable and mean, acturally, but in the recent Nigerian elections, he was more or less robbed of his chance to participate.

He hired Trippi to help him campaign.

Nigeria has about ten times as many cell phone exchanges as it does landlines, and so Trippi worked with the campaign team to design a text message campaign. "The torch of democracy rests in your hands" was one of their slogans. More background is here for you Douthat-Yglesias-Sullivan types. A few weeks before the election, the government kicked Abubakar off the ballot. And Abukakar's senior campaign staff was arrested, charged by the government with inciting and planning acts of terrorism.

By happenstance, Trippi was caught on the telephone on April 9 in Philadelphia talking to a Nigeran.

"I called to see of Atiku was ok, asking if they knew where he was, is he all right?"

By the time Trippi decided to work for John Edwards -- April 19 -- Atiku was not on the ballot and Trippi's association with him had ended.

"I guess you can split massive hairs if you want to say that I worked for Atiku while Edwards was running for president, but I didn't do it for them both at the same time," Trippi said.

"I have no idea where the ten thousands dollars in freezer cash is," Trippi joked.

Dodd's Sick With The Flu, Too

Per a spokesman:

It is with serious regret that I must report that Senator Dodd has come down with an unexpected and severe case of the stomach flu and is being forced to cancel his travel to Iowa for the weekend.

I sincerely apologize for the inconvenience. I know Senator Dodd is extremely disappointed to be missing the trip and would be here if it were at all possible. I will be in touch soon with information about Senator Dodd’s next trip to your area.

Guilt By Association Day: John Edwards

Hugo Chavez hearts Danny Glover; Danny Glover hearts John Edwards. Logical fallacy, yes, to associate Edwards with Chavez-loving.

But Glover hasn't just called Chavez a "very visionary man" and endorsed Chavez's "Bush is the devil" forumations.

Glover's film company has recieved tens of millions of dollars from Venezuela's government-backed film consortium, Villa del Cine. Glover has also touted the virtues of Venezuelan democracy, comparing it favorably to the political system here in the United States.

Is this an endorsement Edwards feels entirely comfortable with?

Eric Schultz, Edwards's spokesman, IM'd a response:

John Edwards does not have to agree with someone on every issue to stand with them on the ones that he does. Danny Glover and John Edwards agree that workers need rights, 37 million people in this country should not live in poverty and we need real universal health care. Just like John Edwards has nothing to do with Lethal Weapon movies 1-4, he also has nothing to do with Hugo Chavez."

A McCain Leader In Michigan Switches To Thompson

One of the earliest Michigan politicians to formally endorse Sen. John McCain has defected to Fred Thompson.

Chris Ward, the House minority floor leader, told colleagues yesterday that he'd made the switch.

In Feb., Ward formally endorsed McCain and was asked to sit on his statewide steering committee.

Republicans in Michigan say that Thompson volunteers are calling every elected official and activist -- even those who have endorsed other candidates -- and urging them to support what they call the race's only true "electable conservative."

A few days ago, a key county chairman in South Carolina cited immigration in withdrawing his endorsement of McCain.

Win A Date With Tagg Romney**

** -- not really a date, but you can sit next to him at a Sox game.

Dear marc,

What a great week so far.

In Tuesday’s debate, my Dad, Governor Mitt Romney, showed the nation once again why he is the best presidential candidate to lead our nation and bring conservative change to Washington. Viewers and pundits alike declared Dad the winner – and I agree.

My Dad has built the best organization and communicated his message effectively, and it’s resonating with the voters. He leads in the polls in the important early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. And just yesterday, two Republican presidential candidates – Rudy Giuliani and John McCain – decided not to compete in the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll, an event long-known for its significance in choosing a presidential nominee.

There is reason to celebrate! So today I’m announcing a special opportunity to join me for a celebration at a Major League Baseball game , including box seats and all travel expenses paid. I know my Dad is so proud of his supporters across the country, and it would mean a lot to me to thank you personally.

How do you qualify? Anyone who contributes $100 to our campaign by Tuesday, June 12th will be entered to win two tickets to join me at the game. I know this is just a few days away so don’t waste any time:

www.MittRomney.com/Baseball

Bypass The Filter Day For Rudy Giuliani

With radio appearances on the Michael Graham show, the Dennis Miller show (which has the potential to be as amusing as Savronarola aunt reviewing a Fellini film), Dennis Prager, and Bill O'Reilly.

YouTube Wars: A Lumbering, Non-Answering Fred Thompson

Larry Kudlow v. Fred Thompson....

Cognitive Illusions And The Press

National Review's Rich Lowry makes two solid points I have a hard time arguing with:

Grading Problems I: In his excellent First Read for NBC, Chuck Todd asks today, "Why does McCain score better among those of us in the media than he did in either of two focus groups we know about?" (Both that he referred to showed Rudy winning.) Clearly, because the media does agree with McCain on immigration and because it doesn't have the long-standing animosity toward McCain that a lot of Republicans do—that's the prism through which a lot of conservatives are going to view McCain.

Grading Problem II—This one is my problem. I take it for granted Romney is going to be polished and make a good impression, so I may discount it and judge him in a more niggling way. But most voters won't do this. This is probably why Frank Luntz's focus group thought Romney won. (Incidentally, they thought McCain lost.)

Dine With Obama

Major donors -- the folks who can contribute up to $2300 per election -- crave access to their candidates. They're usually rewarded with special dinners, calls and personal notes.

Small donors crave... lots of things, but they never get access. At most, they'll get a tee-shirt of a coffee-mug.

So this idea from the Obama campaign is clever:

If you make a donation in any amount between now and 11:59 pm EDT on Wednesday, June 13, you could join Barack and three other supporters for an intimate dinner for five.

Hastings Endorses Clinton

Sen. Hillary Clinton bags a major endorsement in Florida -- an endorsement that actually brings an organization with it -- Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL) of South Florida. Also: Rep. Kendrick Meeks and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Speaking of Clinton: Terry and Dorothy McAullife are hosting a $1,000 bar-b-que fundraiser on the 1st of July. Writes McAullife in an e-mail: "All of us have worked very hard so far to help Hillary, but we know that there is a lot more work to do. Since it is the start of summer, we thought we would combine a little work for Hillary with a little fun"

Your Daily Fred Thompson Dose**

The Hotline's Shira Toeplitz has the details on Thompson's online strategy team. The name that LEAPED out at me is Blaise Hazelwood, a tough-as-nails former RNC political director whose services were widely sought by other '08 contenders. Hazelwood hadn't planned to do a presidential race, and it's hard to believe that her political skills won't be an asset for Thompson.

Soren Dayton defends Thompson's net-based strategy:

First, Thompson could do what Mitt Romney is doing, which I have reviewed very positively. It is an axiom of politics that candidate-to-voter contact moves votes like nothing else. Romney is using technology to enhance that.

Second, Thompson will probably use technology to communicate regularly with his base. He is collecting a lot of information, as I noticed . Thompson has demonstrated that he can produce content on a pretty steady basis that some group of activists will consume. Imagine delivering issue content to his base once or twice a week, as he has been doing at ABC and NRO. That would be new. And, of course, they would hope people would forward it around.

Third, another axiom of politics is that voter-to-voter contact is very effective. It is clear from early results on the website that the Thompson online campaign team intends to emphasize voter-to-voter contact. Even the most obvious implementation collects that information. And it probably appends it to a voter list, so you have demographics and any other stuff you have about the volutneers, voters, etc.

Thompson's going to Israel. Update: no he's not.

** = not posted daily

Latest FNC Poll: HRC, Rudy Up; McCain, Obama Second

Hot out of the inboxes:

Edwards Advances On Security

John Edwards is the only Democratic candidate who is gainfully engaged in a real debate with the Republican presidential candidates about a very crucial topic: what's the best and most productive way to frame and deal with threats to national security.

He's called the War on Terror a "bumper-sticker slogan," and accused the administration of hyping the threat for political reasons, of scaring the public about the stiffness of Democratic spines, and of blinkered thinking about the nature of the threat.

He is also under some pressure. If the war on terror is not a war, then what is it? Just because the administration bastardized the phrase, does it still have content?

Edwards still scares some Republicans for surprisingly conventional and superficial reasons: his southern accent, his mid-life rediscovery of his religion and his opposition to same-sex marriage. The Democratic establishment and the political press generally discounts these attributes. They don't really like or trust Edwards, so they tend to underplay the power of his salvos and thrusts.

But Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain, and, Fred Thompson, too, are actively arguing with John Edwards. (They're criticizing Hillary Clinton on taxes and the economy -- she is relatively untouchable on national security subjects).

Continue reading "Edwards Advances On Security" »

Penn Recuses Himself From Firm's Anti-Labor Work

Two days before Hillary Clinton is due to participate in a major union political forum, her chief strategist, Mark Penn, said that while he will not step down as CEO, he will cede all oversight responsibilities for his company's labor relations clients to other managers.

Penn is CEO of Burson-Marsteller, which has employed experts that help companies combat union efforts to organize their workers.

"I've recused myself from working on any management-side labor relations work," Penn said in an interview.

Penn said that WPP, which owns his firm, Burson Marsteller, has a "conscience clause" that allows employees and managers to refuse to work for particular clients.

The New York Times reported Monday that two union presidents, Bruce Raynor of UniteHere, and James Hoffa of the Teamsters, wrote to Clinton detailing their objections to some of Burson-Marsteller’s clients. One was Cintas, a California-based laundry company that hired the PR firm to prevent UniteHere and the Teamsters from organizing there. Penn was not yet the company’s CEO. Earlier this year, several liberal magazines have blasted Penn for a history of representing corporate clients and for not shutting down Burson-Marsteller’s anti-labor practice.

On Tuesday, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney joined a growing register of important Democrats asking Clinton address the issue. Andrew Stern, the president of the nation’s largest union, the Service Employees, also expressed his concerns to the campaign, although an SEIU official was not able to say whether Stern had spoken to Clinton.

Several labor officials contacted campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle to share their belief that Clinton’s efforts to court union workers might be stunted unless she was able to convince Penn to take a leave of absence from the company for the duration of the campaign.

In an e-mail last night, Penn called "the basic underlying concept of the question" and the unstated allegations "simply false – I have never personally done such work."

"And there is a very good reason why -- my father was an organizer and later leader of the poultry workers union in New York. According to my mother he was even held during negotiations and let out of confinement only after the contract is signed. I have strong personal sympathies with the labor movement."

Penn said that he had never worked for the management side of labor relations and has had no contacts with those clients. "There are no meetings, no statements, no client contact of any kind to support this," he said.

Two of Penn’s friends said he has been personally hurt by the accusations and has reached out to many labor officials in personal e-mails and telephone calls.

Clinton campaign advisers said that Clinton’s record in support of labor speaks for itself and that they did not expect the questions about Penn to have any long-lasting ramifications.

"I've known Mark for more than twenty years and I've certainly never known him to engage in any anti-labor activities," said Harold Ickes, a top Clinton adviser and a legendary labor organizer in New York.

Penn has been called Clinton's most influential political adviser, a description that campaign officials do not dispute. It’s not clear whether the story, which has received little press attention, has been widely circulated among union workers.

Clinton participates in an AFL-CIO forum this Saturday in Detroit.

Her spokesman, Howard Wolfson, said Penn "is an extremely valued and vital member of our team and Hillary is pleased that he has not done this work in the past and will be recusing himself from any possible involvement in the future."

Never Mess With Ted Kennedy, Says Trent Lott

Senator Lott speaking on the floor at 11:00am:

"So Senator Kennedy, I appreciate the legislative leadership you've been providing. I know it's not easy, you know, your own colleagues and those of us over here have been beating you up. I mean, it's -- you know, you're a nice poster child. Thank you very much for what you do. but I'll tell you one thing I've learned the hard way, when it comes to legislating, when you're dealing with Senator Kennedy, you better bring your lunch because you're going to get educated, you're going to learn a lot and you're going to get a result. Hopefully it's going to be a good one. Good luck, Senator from Massachusetts. I yield the floor.

The UAW Talks And 2008

I am certain I'll be inconsistent and self-contradictory at times, but one mantra, one tenet of politics, one of the underlying equations that governs political reality I hope never to forget is that unanticipated events, moments and stories drive presidential elections more than any other factor.

So with that in mind, I'd like to try to anticipate one such event:

In August, the United Auto Workers sit down with the Big Three to try to hammer out a new labor contract. To call it a gargantuan task is almost insufficient: the only bargaining chip both sides really possess is their respective existences.

If the talks go badly, there'll be a lot of unhappy people in key general election states, like Ohio and Michigan.

One possibility is that the automakers will propose a "grand bargain" to cover retiree heatlh care costs once and for all, in exchange for some sort of concession from the union. (GM has floated this).

UAW president Ron Gettlefinger is one of the smartest guys to ever wear a union chief's hat, and he's politically savvy, too. No doubt he will do what he can to make sure that the presidential candidates are interested, and, to the extent possible, engaged in the public debate over the negotiations.

One other interesting possibility: John Edwards has many contacts in the hedge fund world, including many people who are likely involved in the Cerberus/Chrysler deal. Might he use his leverage and persuasive powers to help broker a deal? If he did, it'd be a huge coup.

On the other hand, I imagine that neither side really wants political actors to intervene, per se.

The Boilerplate, 6/7

Apparently, Rudy Giuliani is loose a stool.

Apparently, Newt Gingrich's not so keen on running after all.

Something tells me that Mark McKinnon might leave the McCain universe sooner rather than later, what with his intention to leave the campaign if Obama wins the Democratic nod.

What's a null set got to do with the presidential race?

One day, some MSM outlet is going to start to question whether HRC is too cozy with HRC.

A Word On Two Scoops That Were Not Mine

1. From what I can gather, the Drudge spreadsheet is real, but I'm being cautioned against reading too much into the $27M number. If they raise in excess of $20M, call Clinton's 2nd quarter successful. The political world convinced itself that her donors were tapped out, but that's apparently not the case. And Terry McAullife is... freakin' Terry McAuliffe.

2. I'm not trying to cast doubt on the HuffPost's reporting, but all the info cited by their Obama source in the piece is public record and it's hard to come up with a good political reason for any senior Obama aide to brag about their haul tonight. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has clamped down on the number of senior staff who have access to the fundraising tallies -- less than a half dozen, I'm told -- and very few fundraisers -- less than a handful -- have similar information.

Still -- what they report rings true -- Obama seems to be on track to outraising Clinton this quarter.

But the truth is -- we -- and they -- really won't know for a few more weeks.

Romney's Up 17 In An Internal Campaign Poll

In an internal poll, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney holds a whopping 17 point lead over the rest of the Republican field, further evidence to Romney's senior staff that his organizational prowess and early support in Iowa scared challengers John McCain and Rudy Giuliani away.

The poll, conducted by Romney's pollster and distributed to top campaign officials last week, shows Romney with 29 percent, followed by Giuliani and "Undecided" with 12 percent each. Fred Thompson receives 10 percent in Romney's poll. McCain receives 9 percent.

Analysis from Alex Gage, a Romney consultant:

Gov. Romney’s ratings are extremely favorable in the state—78% of caucus-goers have a favorable impression of him with only 10% having an unfavorable impression. The Governor’s favorables have increased by 10 points over the past two months. By comparison, Giuliani’s favorability rating has decreased by a net of 15 points since March, and McCain’s has dropped by a net of 11 points.

McCain has a 58 percent favorability rating. Giuliani's fav rating is 71%.

Separately, Romney's spokesman, Kevin Madden, said tonight that Romney did not plan to abandon the Ames straw poll.

“Our plan all along has been to play in the Iowa straw poll, and that hasn’t changed. Campaigns that have decided to abandon Ames are likely doing so out of a recognition that their organizations are outmatched and their message falls flat with Republican voters in Iowa. It looks as if we just beat those campaigns in Iowa two months earlier than we had planned on beating them.”

Romney, in New Hampshire after a marathon day of campaigning, could not resist gloating. Per the Politico's JMart:

"You won't believe this," Romney told hundreds of activists gathered for a party fundraising dinner. "Today, both Sen. McCain and Rudy Giuliani have withdrawn from the Ames straw poll. And the head of the Republican Party of Iowa said, 'I guess they saw the handwriting on wall.'"

"Well," Romney continued, "they're going to see more handwriting on the wall like that."

"We're going to win this nomination and the presidency," he said to loud applause.

If David Yepsen Is OK With The Decision to Skip Ames...

And he is:

Rudy Giuliani told the Iowa Republican Party on Wednesday he won’t be competing in the party’s big Aug. 11 straw poll in Ames.

Good for him.

A few hours later, John McCain said he wouldn’t compete either.

Good for him.

The Ames straw poll has become a shake-down of candidates that, for some, has replaced the caucuses themselves as a test of viability.

Iowa Republican Party Blasts Giuliani's Ames Decision

Rarely -- never -- has the Republican Party of Iowa publicly rebuked its party's frontrunner presidential candidate.

Surely, the RPI had to be disappointed that Giuliani's decided to skip Ames -- the party's biggest fundraiser of the year has lost a marquee guest -- but the executive director, Chuck Laudner, was apparently so chagrined that he decided to buck his party's tradition of complete neutrality and accuse Giuliani of not taking Iowa seriously. That's a political argument his opponents are bound to use against him.

Here's what Laudner "said" in a statement:

It's exceedingly difficult to win on caucus night when you have missed the opportunity to speak to over a third of the caucus-goers at the largest gathering of Republicans in the nation,"

That's not the half of it.

The Republican Party of Iowa is disappointed over his decision, but more so over his lackluster campaign efforts in Iowa. Giuliani's efforts in the Hawkeye State have also been disappointing for many Iowans who have not had the opportunity to see, hear, meet or question the former New York Mayor. The Straw Poll would have been an opportunity for Giuliani to show Iowans he is engaged, cares about Iowans' issues and is 100 percent dedicated to Iowa. Regarding Giuliani's decision, Laudner said, "He was in, he was out, he was in, now he's out. Who knows. Maybe he'll change his mind again. Regardless, his name will be on the Straw Poll ballot in August."

McCain Opts Out Of Ames, Too

A statement from campaign manager Terry Nelson:

"In light of today's news, it is clear that the Ames Straw Poll will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates' organizational abilities, so we have decided to forego our participation in the event."

Not a surprise. Why would McCain want to spend $3 million?

Mitt Romney's in a big bind. He'll do well after winning Ames only if there's an expectation that he might not do well or if the field is competitive.

Check out this framing from McCain's Iowa chairman, Dave Roederer:

"This weekend, Senator McCain will hold his 20th town hall meeting in our state. His straight talk on the challenging issues facing our country continues to resonate with Iowans and we are confident that his commitment to restraining government spending, protecting traditional values, and defeating Islamic extremists will ultimately lead him to victory in the caucuses."

As in -- Rudy might say he's still competing in Iowa, but McCain's actually been there, 20 times. Not bad for a guy who skipped Iowa in 2008.

Fred Thompson Obtains The Services Of Tim Griffin

Here's an interesting addition to the growing, un-revealed, unofficial presidential campaign of Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson :

J. Timothy Griffin, the former RNC research whiz and Army JAG prosecutor who served, briefly, as a U.S. Attorney in the second district in Arkansas.

Griffin, you'll no doubt recall, was selected with White House input to replace prosecutor Bud Cummins in AR when Griffin returned from serving a tour of duty in Iraq.

Griffin is advising Thompson on communications and message and will probably be a consultant to Thompson's presidential campaign.

Griffin was a very early, very informal adviser to AR Gov. Mike Huckabee. He is a protege of GOP strategist Barbara Comstock, who now works for Mitt Romney. Comstock co-owns a consulting firm with Thompson's unofficial press secretary, Mark Corallo.

Griffin is very unpopular with liberals who believe he was part of a 2004 scheme to disenfranchise black voters in Florida. But he is highly regarded by Republicans, having served as a dep. pol. dir. in the White House before his Army Reserve service.

Another addition to Thompson's press team: Burson Taylor, a former press aide to Rep. Roy Blunt.

Update: of course, Bob Novak has this too:

Even before the official announcement of candidacy by former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.), an all-star team of GOP operatives is gathering around him -- Lawrence Lindsey, Ken Khachigian, Tim Griffin, Dave Bossie and Victoria Toensing, with more to follow.

Two Views On Who Fred Thompson Hurts

The truth is, no one really knows from whom Fred Thompson will steal votes once he enters the presidential race. And we're especially clueless about the second-degree effects of his candidacy.

Thompson's polling firm, McLaughlin and Associates, finds that Thompson wins the support of 18 percent of the Republican primary electorate today, stealing almost all of his votes from Rudy Giuliani.

Among moderate Republicans, Thompson’s support has increased by 14 points (4% to 18%), while Giuliani’s support has decreased significantly (37% to 29%). McCain (19% to 16%) and Romney (8% to 3%) have also lost support among moderate Republicans. Giuliani shows a slight loss among conservative Republicans (25% to 22%), while Thompson (16% to 18%), McCain (14% to 16%) and Romney (8% to 10%) show slight gains.

A new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies survey comes to much the same conclusion: Giuliani quickly loses about 5 percent of his support overall and 6 percent of his support among men. Thompson picks up votes in the South and the West, stealing support, weirdly, from Tommy Thompson.

They surveyed 662 Republicans and Republican leaners -- that's a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.

Political chatter -- conventional wisdom -- suggests that most folks believe that Mitt Romney will wind up hurting the most in the end because Thompson will steal votes from him that he otherwise might have gotten. But that's just a guess based on one variable: both are appealing to conservatives. But Thompson seems to be attracting moderates as well.

Anti-Don't Ask, Don't Tellers Do Pursue 2008 Strategy

The Human Rights Campaign's Brad Luna tells me that the well-funded gay rights organization will kick off a national tour to repeal DADT -- that's Don't Ask, Don't Tell, the federal policy banning gays from serving in the military.

The tour, which kicks off in Des Moines, IA next Tuesday, will feature the first U.S. soldier injured in Iraq, Eric Alva -- yep, he's gay -- along with other gay vets and one of those Arabic linguists the Republicans were asked to address last night. Iowa State Sen. Maj. Leader Mike Gronstal will also attend, ensuring that the event will earn press coverage and find its way into the presidential conversation there.

The Republicans all favored keeping the policy in place; on Sunday, all the Democrats indicated they'd try to repeal it.

The HRC sent out a video recorded by ex-Marine commander Antonio Agnone

Tour stops include: Phoenix, Orlando, Palm Springs, CA, Seattle and New Hampshire.

Check out HRC president Joe Solomnese's security frame:

Those candidates running to be the next Commander in Chief will have to decide if they believe the sexual orientation of an Arabic linguist is more important than their ability to potentially decode the next piece of intelligence that could finally bring Osama Bin Laden to justice

Your Daily Fred Thompson Update**

Item: Thompson raises $220,000 online in 24 hours.

Averaged close to 1,500 people per hour signi