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Monocausality Watch

05 Jun 2007 11:55 am

It's so tempting to say that Mitt Romney has a double digit lead in Iowa because he's run $850,000 (by our estimate) worth of television ads there.

But that's the unlikliest of what are two explanations: Romney's Iowa state operation has spent the past three months making hundreds of thousands of personalized voter contact calls.

The TV ads are solid but ho-hum. Personal contacts are personal contacts. So I'd guess that the latter has had more of an impact than the former.

BTW: I'm not sure whether Public Policy Polling has a good enough (or long enough) track record in Iowa to attend too much to their results. It is really hard to accurately poll likely caucus goers.

Comments (1)

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