As always, a product of Chuck Todd and myself.
Well, we've finished the week of the Great "Sopranos" spoof -- but, oh Sen. Clinton, how could you go so wrong on the song? The only Canadian song worth a darn is their national anthem (which unfortunately is better than ours; if only our national anthem were "America The Beautiful"). On to the rankings...
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Democratic Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Republican rankings.
1. Sen. Hillary Clinton.
She's had a pretty solid spring. She's been like Big Ten football -- three yards and a cloud of dust. Her press shop has been the most aggressive and most successful of either side. There's been quite a mix of positive press and negative opponent coverage that's given communications guru Howard Wolfson and company something to smile about every day. The Obama memo-Indian fundraiser example says it all. And wasn't there something about some Hillary biographies that were going to make a big splash? Anybody remember anything about those books? We didn't think so. Still, no knockout blows yet and we can't help but notice that the combined Obama-Edwards numbers would regularly top Clinton -- although that tends to be the case with most front-runners. If Edwards or Obama ever fades, can Clinton win a two-way? Many Clinton supporters claim that she and not Obama is the dominant "second choice" among Edwards supporters. We'll see..
2. Barack Obama
Will the Obama press shop ever be able to pass off a piece of negative press without it lashing back in its face? The press has bought the Clinton line on Obama that he should be held to a higher standard when it comes to "contrast" campaigning. Is that fair? Well, it is -- as long as Obama keeps apologizing. If he stops, the media might stop covering these incidents in the same message frame that they are now. The good news for Obama is that it appears his team is going to do great on the money front, which should erase what's been a mediocre press month for the campaign. Should he actually top Clinton (both of us believe that she'll outraise Obama this quarter), it will be another shot in the arm and will probably drive Obama's national numbers up a bit, which should keep the national press off his back for a few weeks.
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Now that Obama's announced his 250k donors, do you still think he will be outraised? Seems like a pretty major stretch.
Remember that all those "huge" fundraisers were breaking Hillary's own expectations of $23 million for the quarter. So if she outperforms her own expectations she's still in the 26-28m range.
Posted by Alex Forshaw | June 28, 2007 10:38 AM