Here's the 2nd quarter memo sent out by Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson. My annotations are inclined.
Friends,Simply put, this has been a great quarter for us.
True. It's been a solid quarter. A few slips -- a misplaced Iowa memo, etc. haven't dampened the overall mood.
Hillary won both debates, demonstrating an enormous command of the issues and the unique ability to take on tough challenges and achieve real results. Millions of Americans saw that Hillary has the strength and experience to bring the kind of change that the nation needs.And then millions more Americans saw Hillary's lighter side when she and President Clinton appeared in a video homage to the Sopranos that announced our campaign's theme song.
A very cute skit, but the Sopranos is an elite cultural phenom, and it's not clear whether the ad resonated more with elites than it did with Clinton's electoral base. And Celine Dion???
With the second quarter coming to a close, I wanted to take a moment to update you on the key developments of the last three months and where the campaign is headed in the days ahead.
Before the media does it for me.
President Clinton hits the campaign trail with Hillary next week, when they'll barnstorm together across Iowa. Later this month, he'll campaign with Hillary in New Hampshire.We know that President Clinton is a huge asset in this race. He's uniquely positioned to talk about Hillary's biography and her lifelong commitment to children and families because he knows her life's story better than anyone.
As Hillary lays out her vision on the stump, he will be invaluable in filling in the details about her life, her background, and her accomplishments for Americans to get to know her better. For a preview of what he will say please go to: http://www.hillaryclinton.com/video/27.aspx
The Clinton campaign is confident that Hillary Clinton's identity as a political actor is secure enough to bring Bill Clinton on the campaign trail as a validator. Also, Bill Clinton has been itching to do retail politics. Their first event is in Des Moines on Monday night.
We expect to bring in about what we did in the First Quarter, or slightly more, which should put us in the range of $27 million. To put that figure in some perspective, it is more than any Democrat has ever raised in the second quarter of the "off" year. While that figure is record setting, we do expect Senator Obama to significantly outraise us this quarter.
Define "significantly."
Bottom line is that both campaigns will raise a great deal of money and that we will have all the resources we need to compete and win. Ultimately, this race will come down to the candidates themselves, their message and the quality of their campaigns. We feel very good about where the campaign stands, and our ability to win the primary and go toe-to-toe with any of the Republicans in the field.
Bottom line: The Democratic Party is not the Clinton Party anymore; if anything, it's the Howard Dean party. But Wolfson is right on points and style: I don't detect the same degree of nervousness among Clinton advisers I did when Barack Obama first entered the race.
Electability -- As Mark Penn likes to say, people always ask "can Hillary win?" but he has never had this asked of someone who is already winning. This week's national polls underscore that observation.According to the latest CNN, Newsweek and USA Today/Gallup polls, Hillary beats all of the leading GOP contenders head-to-head, and she has solidified double-digit leads in all of the national primary polls. She's also leading in 34 out of the 36 states with recent primary polls, including the early states. Voters say she's the candidate most likely to win the general election and the primary, and according to a June Washington Post/ABC poll, Hillary leads by nearly 50 points on the question of who has the best experience to be President.
Mark Penn DOES like to say that. But she's not winning in Iowa, and the polls in South Carolina are equivocal. That Wolfson included this paragraph speaks to the fact that too many Democrats are worried that Clinton inevitably polarizes. We the press haven't made up our minds as to whether HRC MUST win Iowa or not.
One of the best examples of Hillary's electoral strength is the incredible support she continues to receive from women. The campaign has developed a large and growing network of Women for Hillary nationally and in key states. From grassroots organizations like EMILY's List and the National Organization for Women to respected leaders like Maya Angelou and Madeline Albright, Hillary is drawing key support from women who made up 54% of the electorate in 2004 and could be the "X-factor" in 2008.
As long as Obama's in the race, I don't think Clinton will become the movement candidate. But in a state like New Hampshire, where women usually make up MORE than 54% of the electorate, women are undeniable assets to Clinton's campaign.
In The States -- We continue to ramp up our efforts in the early states, where we're seeing growing grassroots excitement for Hillary's candidacy. In Iowa, for example, Hillary has traveled across the state with Governor and Christie Vilsack, visiting the Four Corners while the campaign signs up thousands of caucus goers. In New Hampshire, volunteers have clocked over 2,000 hours volunteering on her behalf while an incredible 50 state legislators have thrown their support to her. In Nevada, the campaign has launched African American, Hispanic and Asian American/Pacific Islander Leadership Councils and racked up 108 endorsements. Local observers say Hillary's superior state organization has helped her take a 20-point lead in the polls. In South Carolina, Hillary named former Governor Richard Riley a state campaign Co-Chair this week and won praise for her commencement address at historically black Claflin University.
She's running strong in NH and Nevada.
News & NotesPlease check out the campaign's news website, www.hillaryhub.com , which serves as a clearinghouse for the latest news, blog items and video clips on Hillary's race. And be sure to watch tonight's Democratic presidential forum on PBS at 9 p.m. EDT.
Finally, I hope you've seen coverage of Hillary's recent policy speeches which have previewed the change she would bring to this nation. In Florida, she laid out a plan to establish universal pre-Kindergarten to give every child in America a head start on learning. In New Hampshire, she pledged to lift the ban on stem cell research and pursue life-saving treatments for millions of Americans. And in New Orleans, she outlined a proposal to rebuild the Gulf Coast and restructure our disaster response system. Hillary is the only candidate with a clear vision of how to move this country forward, and the experience to hit the ground running on her first day in the White House.
Thanks again for everything you do for Hillary and this campaign.
Best,
Howard
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This is surely one of the dumbest lines I've ever read in any political piece....
"We the press haven't made up our minds as to whether HRC MUST win Iowa or not. "...Wha!?
First, does one have to have ANY experience in Nat'l politics to be defined an expert in the media and hence comment on it? Just asking...
Look dear man, its a math situation, delegate counting....OF COURSE...Hillary can come in NOT first in the Caucus and still pick up enough delegates in this years hurried up primary calender to win. Jeeze, look at the state by state, week by week run down. (Plus, notice what NY state just did going winner take all)The only real tea leaf reading available is what happens to the field....IF....Hillary does win in Iowa...then what really is the point of going on for the other candidates... with her steady margins in most of the remaining states...it will then just be a question of who will be her vp and who would look nice in her cabinet.
Posted by tim l | June 29, 2007 1:03 AM