A week after tamping down fundraising expectations, donors close to the high command of ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney are predicting that he'll raise close to $20M this quarter.
Talk about a green monster: 1,000 Romney fans showed up last night at Fenway Park. 600 fundraisers are spending their full day collecting donations for Romney -- they've been given the goal of $5000 each. Assuming that half the donors reach their goal, that'll net Romney a cool $1.5M.
Romney today told reporters that he would contribute his own money to the campaign. An aide to Romney said that the fundraising total would exceed $20M only with Romney's contribution. The indefatigable Jonathan Martin is blogging the day over at the Politico.
I'm a little gun-shy about my earlier prediction that Sen. John McCain will raise more than $13M; I'm not sure how low expectations deserve to be. McCain's campaign manager noted today in a fundraising e-mail that McCain "does not rely on big money contributions from Washington lobbyists and power brokers; he relies on contributions from hard-working supporters like you. That is why we need your help today." McCain hasn't lost fundraisers, but his fundraisers are having trouble convincing their friends to write checks to his campaign, which is regularly and unintelligently declared "dead" by elites on a daily basis. On the day a London newspaper owned by Rupert Murdoch declared McCain's candidacy all but dead, McCain was endorsed by Greenville, SC mayor Knox White. Some hearts are still beating.
I'm now able to slightly refine what I think ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will raise: between $14M and $16M.
As usual, look to the burn rate -- or, as Romney's team likes to call it -- the investment rate.
McCain's ratio of cash in to cash out was about 1 to 0.7. Since then, his campaign's pared about 50 jobs and has set a goal of spending half of what they raised. They've also deferred some of their state campaign expenses until the fall.
Giuliani ended last quarter with about $11M; assuming a burn rate of 50%, he'd end up with about 16M on hand. McCain's cash-on-hand total was by far the lowest of his two top-ticket rivals; if he raises $13M and spends $6.5M, he'd finish the quarter with a respectable $12M on hand -- not spectacular, but acceptable enough.
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If it's an investment rate, why isn't Romney investing all of it now. No prudent investment advisor would council leaving 50% in cash.
Posted by AJ | June 25, 2007 7:41 PM