An Outlier, Maybe, But Clinton Likes This SC Poll

A few days for their debate with Google and YouTube, here's a new CNN/ORC poll of the great state of South Carolina.

Clinton   39%
Obama   25%
Edwards 15%
Gore   10%
Richardson  2%
Biden  1%
Dodd     *       
Gravel    *      
Kucinich *       

                  Blacks   Whites
Clinton            47%       30%
Obama             31%       18%
Edwards            4%       27%
Sampling error: +/-8% pts

Comments

sampling error: +/- 8 %points!!! Uh, I think asking my magic 8-ball would be a better predictor....

Posted by J | July 20, 2007 12:05 PM

As an Obama supporter, I like this poll, too. Well, as noted above, I'm not crazy about the margin of error. What do you have to do to get one so high - poll all of 18 people? But still for Obama to be only 14 points back in July, against a candidate with something like 100 percent name awareness, is pretty good I think.

Plus, after looking at other polling data from New Hampshire and women in general, we seem to see a dynamic developing in which older Democrats are staying on the sidelines for a moment (not great news for the frontrunner) while younger Democrats are splitting between Clinton and Obama. The one distinguishing characteristic within that split seems to be education levels.

This has been mentioned before, but the professional younger voters are precisely those who are less likely to have a hard-wired phone, and thus less likely to ever talk with a pollster. So the numbers may be even a little closer than the polls show.

Posted by PLM | July 20, 2007 1:16 PM