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Classic "Conditioning"

28 Jul 2007 04:45 pm

In Iowa this morning, Sen. Obama admonished the Beltway press corps for using horse race criteria to judge his debate with Sen. Hillary Clinton instead of focusing on the differences between the two of them.

Fair enough.

Obama would meet with the Evil Five "without preconditions" but under "certain conditions." By plain reading, his position contradicts itself. Based on how Obama has subsequently explained his answer, it seems that he meants to say that he would not require the other countries to agree to diplomatic preconditions but that he would not simply meet Hugo Chavez as the Venezuelan Camp David unless he were reasonably certain that Chavez didn't intend to spit in his face. The United States may or may not come to the table with demands.

Clinton would initiative diplomatic overtures immediately but would be skeptical if, say, Holocaust-denying president of Iran decided to invite her to Tehran or to, say, speak at a conference on Zionism. The U.S. has moral leverage in this situation and Clinton would not easily abdicate it.

Both Clinton and Obama say they would be "tough" with these leaders and relentlessly press the United States's interests. Both have said, repeatedly, that they would practice diplomacy to Bush-Cheney cowboy approach.

Charitably, these positions are different by about four cents on the dollar.

Obama goes further. He may even stipulate that Clinton says the right things, but he is making a broader argument: Obama represents a break with the old order and Hillary exemplifies it. Clinton has baggage, history, and promotes a Washington-centric, consensus national security liberalism. Obama would engage these leaders from a different vantage point. And Clinton might agree about that last point: it's not that the issue is whether the Bush-Cheney diplomatic track is reversed, but how.

Calling Clinton "Bush-Cheney lite" is a political charge though, so we go back to politics.

If we string back to the matrix of policy positions, Obama is either trying to manufacture differences where aren't any, or he is suggesting that Clinton is too much of an establishment, dynastic figure to break away from the Bush-Cheney approach which somehow, in Obama's mind, represents a continuation, rather than a break with, the establishment thinking on foreign policy.

In other words, Obama wants to focus on how Clinton originally positioned herself (rather than what she meant) because Obama clearly believes he and Clinton approach foreign policy from a fundamentally different place even if, in this particular situation, they agree on the remedy. The onus on Obama is to show, clearly, how both his approach and his operationalization would be different.

Comments (25)

WTF? Clinton was the one who *started this* by insulting Obama. *She* was the one who made this an issue. Obama turned that on her and threw it back in her face, and now she (and you) are saying that, gosh darn it, your positions really are no different - after yourselves playing up the "differences" first pointed out by the "grizzled" Clinton to the "rookie" Obama for the past week?

What the f!ck is the matter with you people?

Wow, Marc. I'm into all this nuance, and even I had a hard time following that.

As I said in a below thread, this isn't so much about actual differences in approaches to diplomacy - and agree your 4 cents is charitable - but instead who could maneuver the other back toward their respective minefields.

Clinton opened by trying to push Obama toward the naive mines. Obama countered with the minefield first on her left - that authorization to invade vote - and then much to Clinton's seeming surprise, those mines on the right - the similarities between her and Bush.

Neither stepped on a mine, but both both got pushed some. I think Obama pushed Clinton closer to her mines. The Bush-Lite thing is going to stick, and its going to come up again.

Everytime she seems like the establishment candidate, it sticks. Everytime Republicans rush to her rescue (still scratching my head over that one). And everytime Mark Penn gets caught acting like Karl Rove.

The only real danger for Obama here is that the Castro thing comes up again in the general election.

I think your plain meaning reading defeats the point and simply buys into Hillary's spin.

Preconditions is a diplomatic term of art. The man who asked the question has even said that is what he meant. Preconditions does not mean diplomatic spadework. It means substantive concessions.

It is not a contradiction to say you will meet after diplomatic spadework but without demanding substantive concessions.

it seems that he meants to say that

No, this is some crap that you made up to shill for Hillary the Bush-Cheney CLone.

Exactly, since there's no substance to these "differences" there isn't anything but the horse race to focus on. Both of their charges and counter charges have been crassly politically motivated, which is fine this is a campaign.

But there is no reason to pretend that anything other than crass poistioning and spin is going on on either side.

No, there are substantive differences.

Obama is a liberal internationalist.

Hillary is a moderate neocon realist.

That is a substantive difference, one that anyone who knows an ounce about foreign policy understands.

Uhh ... right.

Except that Clinton started it, pinging her tired "Obama is an empty suit" talking point.

And then Obama rolled with it. Their answers were substantively the same, but that wasn't how Clinton (and her MSM sycophants) framed it.

Now Clinton's the one who comes across as an idiot, because she fell into her own rhetorical trap.

And now the MSM is racing to redefine it against Obama again, saying that Obama is cooking up a difference where "substantively" there isn't one.

Obama isn't doing any "crass positioning." Clinton tried to make a mountain out of a molehill, and it flopped miserably. What a surprise that Ambinder and his fellow court sycophants are covering for Hillary yet again.

Just more ammo to use in the monumental fued that is Obama vs. Hillary. Great fodder for the rabid MSM.

http://political-buzz.com/

Just more ammo to use in the monumental feud that is Obama vs. Hillary. Great fodder for the rabid MSM.

http://political-buzz.com/

Alot of people see clinton's policy as neocon or Bush lite. it's a classic charge.
And, the guy asked if you would be willing to meet with. Not promise.
You pundits let HILLARY reframe the question.
and the guy who asked it said Obama answered right and Hillary answered wrong.

Wow...who'da thunk this would spiral the way it has?

A good thing, as I see it...it does help define the differences between the two and helps me to personally explain my uneasiness about Ms. Clinton and the hope I feel about Obama...

Hillary is DC...separate the GWB years, the same way the Nixon years needed to be separated, from the equation and she engenders what you have left of DC...the status quo.

She espouses *the way it's done*...as in, the way it's always been done in DC, save a couple of rogue admins.

Clinton appears to be the type to draw around herself DC's best and brightest to brainstorm for solutions.

Obama, at minimum, represents a chance at fundamental change in DC. He's not entrenched...as some would say not experienced. To me, that's his biggest plus. Obama appears the type that would draw from across the nation, even the world, for outside the box thinking. We have some seriously huge problems facing us as a nation, in need of some serious innovative thinking to approach solutions...

Both would be a plus for the nation after the last years, to be sure...but Obama brings with him at least the promise of something entirely new which could redraw the best in all of us nationally.

Can he pull it off? Who knows...but I'm willing to give him a shot as he couldn't possibly be worse than what we have now.

Excellent post G Davis!

Got to agree with the bulk of the above (pro-Obama, anti-Hillary) comments. You seem to be parsing for parsing's sake here. Obama never said he wouldn't do advance work before any meetings with other world leaders. That's assumed, and goes without saying. Hillary either jumped on the fact that it wasn't said to manufacture a controversy (if she was being consistent with her past statements indicating a readiness to talk to "difficult" leaders and countries) or she was changing her position to reject the premise of the quesioner and refusing to meet "without preconditons", just like Bush.

(And "preconditons" seems to be, by both general agreement among the commenters and the testimony of the questioner himself, a serious and signifigant condition, such as Iran renouncing nuclear weapons or Castro embracing free market capitalism or something....)

So Obama has been pretty consistent and pretty clear: he would be "willing" (as per the question...that is not a committment or a promise to meet, just a promise to be open to possibilty) to meet with these difficult and obsteperous foreign leaders, without demanding that they completely capitulate to our point of view ( on the assumption that that would come, if it comes at all, at the end of the conversaton, and not at the beginning....otherwise, what is there to talk about?), after the arrangements had been made between his people and their people and all the necessary advance work had been done.

What, exactly, is Hillary's position? Is she willing to meet without signifigant precondtions after the advance work had been done, or is she not. It seems if she says yes to that, then she is agreeing with Obama and she started a fight for no reason other than purely political. And if she says no, then she has a difference of opinion with Obama that puts her a lot closer to Bush's position on negotiations than she has previously indicated. Go back and parse her at little bit. That's where the serious inconsitencies are.

Its all beltway stuff and an average voter does not care about hair splitting. What an average voter cares about is who will give "real change" and deviate from the WORST administration ever. People are hungry for real change and anyone (that includes dems, repubs and hacks like Marc) who thinks that Obama will talk to any of these leaders without groundwork is a MORON. Its crystal clear that between Obama and Hillary its Obama who will bring real change and everyone who is not partisan understands that. I have talked to about 15 people who consider themselves as still neutral between Obama and Clinton since Friday and every single person told me that Obama is RIGHT and they believe him. So in beltway the MSM may live in their own fool's paradise and paint this as a negative thing for Obama but reality is exactly opposite. The Bush-Cheney days of spin and smear are over and vast majority of us are looking for real change, and among dems its only Edwards and Obama (in that order) who will bring out real change.

Marc, get over it, its a CHANGE election and none of the spins will work this time. Looks like you want to see Hillary to get the nomination so that election can be close irrespective which junkyard dog that repubs nominate.

For people like Marc and beltway journalists:

Here is what the person who asked that question at debate is saying about this through Newsday..

"
After a week of escalating post-debate rhetoric from Hillary and Obama over meeting with dictators, Bush-Cheney lite, naivete and irresponsibility, we thought it would be worth finding out what the guy who asked the question that started it all thought.

So we called Stephen Sixta, the 59-year-old California video producer who asked on YouTube about the candidates' willingness to meet with the leaders of Iran, Syria, Cuba, N. Korea and Venezuela. He said it's been pretty much "surreal" to spend the last week hearing the question he wrote repeated in some kind of endless loop by everyone from Wolf Blitzer to Rush Limbaugh.

His bottom line: He liked Obama's answer, and he thought Hillary misconstrued what he meant by "preconditions" in acting like Obama had agreed to meet Fidel and Chavez with no diplomatic groundwork whatsoever. He said his question just meant there shouldn't be a requirement of a change in a country's behavior as a condition of talking to them.

"My question had something I wanted my government to achieve. I wanted my country to go out and speak to countries we don't speak to," Sixta said. "When the attacks started on Obama they were attacks on my question and what I wanted. They made me feel bad."
"

And according to latest Rasmussen poll on this Americans agree with Obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Forty-two percent (42%) of Americans say that the next President should meet with the heads of nations such as Iran, Syria, and North Korea without setting any preconditions. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 34% disagree while 24% are not sure.

That question came up during last Monday’s Presidential Debate with Illinois Senator Barack Obama saying he would commit to such meetings and New York Senator Hillary Clinton offering a more cautious response. Democrats, by a 55% to 22% margin, agree with Obama. Clinton and Obama continue to dominate the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. "

Let's sum up the news cycle of this debate:

Obama gets the applause for his answer.

Obama wins the focus groups.

Obama scores very well in the focus group dial responses when answering that specific question.

All available polling indicates that Americans agree with Obama's answer, not Hillary's.

MSM: "Hillary dominates the debate."

Hillary publicly insults Obama over an artificial difference.

Obama runs with it to distinguish himself from Hillary Clinton.

Hillary freaks out, orders her male prostitute Tom Vilsack to demand that Obama "cease and desist" his "distortions" of Hillary's record. He also says that Obama is making up a difference where there isn't one.

MSM: "Obama is manufacturing differences where there aren't any."

MSM circulation, viewership, etc., aren't falling because the younger generation is insipid and apolitical. We are a very political generation. But there's no point in debating a willfully lying baby-boomer MSM establishment whoring for the Clintons where Monica left off.

It is a shame that Hillary attacks first, retreats and seeks refuge behind Albright, Vilsack and Holbrooke.

Obama strikes back and penetrates deeper. She feels the heat, come out of her hole like a rodent, and then play the victim: "help, I'm under attack!!"

She's nothing but a coward. Is she going to lead this country with cowardice? Obama must be tough if he can get into the skin of the Clintons.

GOP, You've been warned!!!!

http://www.irishamericansforobama.com/hillary_clinton_phases_of_panic_defeat.html

I keep thinking of your remark of the evil five.
You are probably being funny but, I see this as the reason the media cannot understand why the people are cheering for Obama and why clinton is just wrong.
It is the mindset, brought by the Bushies, and is now established beltway thinking of leaders we don't like as evil.
Many of the world's leaders, and the population, and some of them our allies, probably see us as evil the last several years.
And it is the readily accepted idea of the cowboy thinking of being tough, macho, and tagging those we don't like as evil.
this is what Obama is talking about. They are not good but, you have to come away from the simplistic mindset of good and evil. and playing cowboy. Hasn't the last seven years taught us anything?
The neocon failed ideas and jargon and way of thinking is a failure but, one that Clinton is much closer to than many realize. And this is what Obama is fighting against.

Well done, Marc -- a very Serious post. You certainly are a Serious journalist aren't you?

In reading Obama's Miami Herald interview, one must conclude that Obama's and Clinton's views on diplomacy are as similar as their Senate Iraq voting record.

No. I respectfully disagree.

There is a distinct difference. Obama said "YES" he would be "willing" to meet with leaders. He is not afraid to. You could feel that he meant it with every bone in his body and he would not for a moment though do this irresponsibly!

She (Hillary) on the other hand, would meet eventually (not in the first year) and then sometime after that tentatively and fearfully.

As for the IraQ voting record - she (Hillary)has been following every move Obama makes in order for her to be able to blur the lines on her disgraceful record.
All strategy on her part.

I'm not sure what Obama's diplomacy position will be tomorrow. Perhaps he doesn't, either.

As of today, however, having studied Obama's many, many, statements over the past week, I think I have my head wrapped around his current view of Presidential diplomacy.

Obama thinks that preconditions are OK on the condition that conditional conditions are previously agreed upon. Further, under the Conditional Propaganda Clause, there are conditional exceptions to this rule, but only under certain conditions.

Are we clear now?

Keep studying Joe. You'll get it.

It is a good sign that Clinton supporters are so focused on Obama. Kind of makes me wonder how stable they think her frontrunner status really is.

Good site! I'll stay reading! Keep improving!

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