Both good for Hillary Clinton. Here's the data.
First, Clinton is essentially tied with Barack Obama among independents.
And second, nearly 50% (47%) of potential Dem voters in New Hampshire view Hillary Clinton as electable -- the most electable, in fact, of the field. Her electability number exceeds the margin by eleven points.
One number that gives cheer to Obama: More than three fourths of the 75% of New Hampshire voters who aren't currently supporting Obama would consider supporting him.
(Obama's three point bump in the head-to-head is meaningless, at this point).
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I don't understand your points at all. In this poll, Clinton is down three points from June and Obama is up three points from June. And you want me to believe this is good for Clinton?
Plus, only 10 percent of those intending to vote in the Democratic primary are decided and only another 26 percent are even leaning toward a candidate at this point. Clinton has universal name awareness and Obama doesn't yet. How can these numbers be good for Clinton. Are you really expecting a majority of undecideds to break her way? That seems to run contrary to what I've always heard was political conventional wisdom - the longer people take to make up their minds, the worse it is for the candidate with better name awareness.
The "would consider" category again favors Obama.
And the reference you throw out about independents evenly splitting again seems to favor Obama. I read it like, hey, look at that. No one in New Hampshire heard of this guy a few months ago and he's already splitting independents with Hillary Clinton.
The other pro-Clinton indicator you throw out sounds legitimate. That does seem to be the one good piece of data for her campaign, from a poll that provides a lot of data.
But I'll leave it to you "experts" to further inform me about how I ought to be reading this.
Posted by PLM | July 19, 2007 5:16 PM