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News: Michigan Dems Are Unanimous
Breaking news from Michigan: there won't be a Democratic caucus in Michigan. There will be a Democratic Primary on Jan. 15. The Michigan Democratic Party will resubmit its delegate selection plan to the DNC. The DNC will find the plan in non-compliance and strip Michigan of its delegates. The candidates will then have to decide whether to compete there.
But there is, as of 4:30 pm ET today, unanimity among Democrats -- state party chair Mark Brewer has capitulated to the pressure of Gov. Granholm, the UAW and others.
The state party released a statement moments ago:
“The leadership of the Michigan Democratic Party today announced their intention to comply with the new state law establishing a January 15, 2008 presidential primary, and to select their delegates to the Democratic National Convention on that day.”
“Michigan Democrats are taking this step in direct response to the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s statement of intent on August 9th, supported by the Democratic leadership of New Hampshire, to hold the New Hampshire primary before January 19, 2008, in direct violation of the DNC Rules that state that New Hampshire’s delegates cannot be selected at a primary held earlier than January 22, 2008.”
“Michigan Democrats believe that no state should enjoy a privileged position every four years in selecting our party’s presidential nominee. New Hampshire’s stated intent to move their primary before January 19th, in direct violation of the DNC rules, is an effort to perpetuate their self-appointed privileged position. That makes the delegate selection process in other states, including Michigan, less meaningful, and results in the candidates paying less attention to the issues that are important to Michigan and other states.”
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Biden On The Pledge
"It is time to end all the maneuvering around the dates of the early primaries and caucuses. We intend not only to sign the pledge, but to honor our pledge to Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina to respect their primacy to the process,” said Biden for President Campaign Manager Luis Navarro. “They played by the rules of the DNC. We respect those rules. The public despises this kind of maneuvering for political advantage. If the Republicans want to play this way, let them. But we will not be a party to it."
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Obama On The Pledge
Will he avoid Florida (and Michigan)? No word yet. Here's what a campaign spokesman says: "Senator Obama believes the four early states play a vitally important role in the nomination process and would like to see their status maintained for the 2008 primary season."
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More On The Four-State Pledge: Two Sign, One...
Two Democratic presidential candidates, Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Chris Dodd, have pledged to "honor the status" of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada by refusing to actively campaign in states found to be violation of the Democratic National Committee's delegate selection rules.
Does that mean that Richardson, potentially the first Hispanic president. won't participate in the first Hispanic language debate of the cycle -- next week's Univision debate at the BankUnited Center at the University of Miami? Yes -- he still can, according to the four-state consortium.
Mo Elleithee, a spokesman for Hillary Clinton, said that the campaign "received the letter and we are reviewing it. Sen. Clinton is 100% committed to campaigning in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina. She believes that these four states have a unique and special role in the process. There are other states that are going through a process now and we are going to let that process play out. But no matter what happens with those states, that will not affect our committment to these four states and we will compete in those states no matter what day those primaries or caucus are held."
The campaigns of Sen. Joe Biden, Ex-Sen. John Edwards, and Sen. Barack Obama have yet to respond.
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Michigan: Dems May Caucus On Feb. 9, Regardless
There's a fierce behind-the-scenes battle among Michigan Dems right now about the Jan. 15 primary. State chairman Mark Brewer is prepared to announce that the party will hold its caucus as planned on Feb. 9.
The Michigan Democratic Party has already submitted its delegate selection plan to the Democratic National Committee. Today, Gov. Jennifer Granholm and the state's powerful UAW are trying to force Brewer to agree to submit a plan that reflects the Jan. 15 primary.
I'll write an update when I know more.
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The Pledge: Four States Urge Dems To Avoid Campaigning In Non-Compliant States
The Democratic party chairs of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada just sent the Dem presidential candidates this pledge:
WHEREAS, over a year ago, the Democratic National Committee established a
2008 nominating calendar;
WHEREAS, this calendar honors the racial, ethnic, economic and geographic
diversity of our party and our country;
WHEREAS, the DNC also honored the traditional role of retail politics early in the
nominating process, to ensure that money alone will not determine our
presidential nominee;
WHEREAS, it is the desire of Presidential campaigns, the DNC, the states and
the American people to bring finality, predictability and common sense to the
nominating calendar.
THEREFORE, I _______________, Democratic Candidate for President, pledge
I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential
election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa,
Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as “campaigning” is defined by the
rules and regulations of the DNC. It does not include activities specifically
related to raising campaign resources such as fundraising events or the hiring of
fundraising staff.
_____________________________ __________
Basically: don't linger in Florida (or Michigan, maybe) too long.
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Virginia In 2008
This is a blog about the 2008 presidential race, so we don't usually weigh in on developments down the ballot. The retirement announcement today of Sen. John Warner, however, will reverberate in the presidential orbit. For one thing, there is a near universal consensus that Warner's retirement puts his seat in jeopardy for the Republicans.
Ex-Gov. Mark Warner, a once-upon-a-time presidential candidate, is probably going to run for the Democratic nomination. He is extremely popular; he will be heavily favored to win; his race will draw upon the same grassroots energies that excited the Democratic base in 2006. Having Warner on the ballot will help the Democratic presidential nominee in Virginia.
Both Mark Warner and Sen. James Webb are considered by the politigensia to be potential vice presidential picks this year. Needless to say, Warner would take himself out of consideration by running for Senate. Will Webb be more attractive, or less attractive, if as a running mate in Warner is on the ballot? It's not clear.
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Gay Marriage In Iowa
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, who wants to cement his standing among social conservatives in Iowa, could not have asked for a better post-labor day gift than the decision by a Polk. Co. judge to throw out the state's voter-passed gay marriage law.
It's the lead story across the state today, and Romney is already getting props from conservatives for his response.
Update: two gay college students have gotten married..
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Dean Urges Presidential Candidates To Adhere To Calendar
In a strongly worded letter to the Democratic presidential candidates, DNC chair Howard Dean urges them to abide by the calendar and delegate selection process set out by the committee. Dean does not address what would happen if the candidates stray from the rules and campaign in penalized states like Florida. 
"As the leader of the Democratic Party, I strongly urge you to adhere to the 2008 delegate selection rules."
Last weekend, the party's rules and bylaws committee found Florida's proposed Jan. 29 primary in noncompliance. They stripped the state of all of its delegates, pending a decision by Florida to revise its plan. Florida refused and has threatened to sue the DNC for depriving Democrats the right to vote.
"My goal as Chairman, and our objective as a Party, is to structure a nominating process that adheres to rules that are clear, straightforward and published. The vast majority of states have complied with these rules," Dean writes. "The RBC did one thing on Saturday: enforced the Party's rules."
Download Dean's letter here.
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How McCain Plans To Get His Groove Back
According to an aide to Sen. John McCain, September is "crucial" to the well-being and continued existence of the campaign.
McCain has already been booked on major television shows to discuss Gen. David Petraeus's report.
He'll take major bus tours through early primary states, holding at least a dozen town-hall style events in each.
Later in the month, he and several of his POW brothers will participate in what the campaign calls its "No Surrender" tour, urging Americans to consider the implications of an Iraq withdrawal. The key words: McCain's biography, his courage, his service.
Look for McCain to make two major policy speeches in September: one will focus on energy; the other, on health care.
And then fundraisers. The campaign, wisely, isn't setting any expectations, but aides insist that McCain is comfortable with the amount of money coming in.
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Clinton's Campaign Goes Dark
Word from reliable media buying sources is that Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign has no discernable television ad presence for at least the next two weeks. That means that Clinton's first ad lasted for a week.
One guess is that the Clinton campaign used the ad to test whether it moved numbers. Whether it did -- well, the campaign probably won't let anyone know. Suffice it to say, unless the Clinton campaign has been spending like gangbusters, they have plenty of money to run television ads right now.
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Fred's Timing Makes Sense
The disclosure benefits aside, there are benefits to announcing on September 6.
Consider: Congress is back in session. On September 10, House members will receive a detailed briefing from Gen. David Petraeus about Iraq; the Senate's briefing is scheduled, tenatively, for two days later.
It's likely that the administration will begin to roll out the thrust of Petraeus report that weekend. The national poltical press corps -- most of them, anyway -- will be in one place: with Thompson.
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News: Thompson's Campaign Theme
An aide to Fred Thompson tells me that the campaign has settled on its mantra: Security, Unity and Prosperity. Those words will be emblazoned on the side of a Big Ol' Fred bus that will tour the early primary states next week.
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The Official Thompson Press Release
Thompson to Announce Run for President with Online Video Followed by Three-State Campaign Tour
McLean, VA – On September 6, 2007, Fred Thompson will be announcing his intention to run for President of the United States with a webcast available to millions at www.imwithfred.com. The launch of the video will be followed by a five-day campaign tour through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
“I believe that there are millions of Americans who know that our security and prosperity are at risk if we don’t address the challenges of our time; the global threat of terrorism; taxes and spending that will bankrupt future generations, and a government that can’t seem to get the most basic responsibilities right for its citizens,” stated Fred Thompson.
“The response that we’ve received makes me confident that we have an opportunity to change politics in Washington and across the country, and take on these challenges the way every generation of Americans has faced the challenges of their time – with unity, hard work and a belief that we will come out on the winning side,” continued Thompson.
“We enter this campaign in a strong position,” said committee manager Bill Lacy. “Fred is consistently near the top in the polls, and conservatives across the country have put together the closest thing to a draft in recent presidential campaign history in an effort to bring about this day. The next few weeks will only serve to build upon those efforts, with house parties nationwide on the 6th, and visits to the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, quickly followed by stops in Florida and a homecoming in Lawrenceburg, TN on the 15th.”
“By announcing via webcast, Fred is able to take his consistently mainstream conservative message directly to the voters, who are already responding to that message with a strong upwelling of grassroots support. The webcast and the following campaign tour will play to Fred’s strengths, a consistent record of conservatism, his ability to clearly spread his message, and his ability to work with and connect with Americans from all walks of life,” said Lacy.
The committee will file our formal paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission within 15 days, the time allowed by law after Fred decided to run. Additionally, we will begin to consider candidate based events following Fred’s broadcast on September 6, 2007.
Campaign tour cities and dates are listed below. Exact event locations will be released in the coming days.
Thursday, September 6
Afternoon Des Moines, IA
Evening Council Bluffs, IA
Friday, September 7
Morning Sioux City, IA
Evening Mason City, IA
Saturday, September 8
Morning Cedar Rapids, IA
Afternoon Davenport, IA
Evening Portsmouth, NH
Sunday, September 9
Afternoon Manchester, NH
Evening Nashua, NH
Monday, September 10
Morning Charleston, SC
Afternoon Columbia, SC
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Fred's Announcement Details
--September 6, 2007.
--Via webcast.
--Then onto a tour of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, followed by a stop in Tennessee.
--He's skipping the next New Hampshire Republican debate on the 5th.
I kind of predicted it.
How can Fred Thompson best manage financial expectations when he gets in the race? One smart Republican election lawyer describes a scenario that extends his roll-out over several months, giving him a nice, long pad before he's forced to disclose his personal finances.
Remember, Sen. Thompson is an original co-sponsor of McCain-Feingold and would therefore not need any incentive to act in the spirit of transparency and disclosure that federal election law fosters.
Or, he could:
On Sept. 6, announce his intent to run,
On Sept. 21, open his candidate committee with the Federal Election Commission -- he has 15 days from the start of federal activities.
On Oct. 1, Thompson’s statement of organization would be due, which makes the whole thing official.
This means that Thompson would not have to file his first FEC report until January, and he'd be required to file his personal financial disclosure forms in early October, unless he gets extensions -- Mitt Romney's already gotten two of them.
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Gay Marriage Ban Struck Down In Iowa
Meet your next issue, presidential candidates.
From the AP:
A Polk County judge on Thursday struck down Iowa’s law banning gay marriage.
The ruling by Judge Robert Hanson concluded that the state’s prohibition on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional and he ordered Polk County Recorder Tim Brien to issue marriage licenses to several gay couples.
“It’s a moral victory for equal rights,” said Des Moines lawyer Dennis Johnson, who represented six gay couples who filed suit after they were denied marriage licenses.
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Huckabee Gets His IAM Endorsement
It's official now. The machinists' Republican endorsement is the surging governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee.
LITTLE ROCK, AR – Former Governor Mike Huckabee (AR) won the support of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) today. The IAM, for the first time in its 119 year history, endorsed candidates in both the Republican and Democratic primaries.
Huckabee welcomed the IAM endorsement stating, “I’m proud to have the support of the workers who bring prosperity to America on a daily basis.”
Huckabee spoke before over 700 members of the IAM in Orlando, Florida on Monday about jobs, globalization, health care, and other 21st century domestic issues. During his conversation with IAM workers, Huckabee stated, “In order for this country to be free, there are three things we must do: feed ourselves, fuel ourselves and fight for ourselves. That means we need to be manufacturing our own means of defense and making it a national security issue.”
During his speech on Monday night, Huckabee outlined his program to improve the lives of working Americans, including his support of the Fair Tax. Under the Fair Tax, he said, “American companies are far less likely to move overseas and foreign companies are far more likely to come here, hiring Americans to build and work in their new plants.”
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The IAM's Endorsement Of Hillary Clinton: A Surprise, And A Blow To Edwards
** The Machinists' decision to endorse Sen. Hillary Clinton -- and Gov. Mile Huckabee of Arkansas -- comes as a surprise to advisers for Sen. John Edwards, some of whom were confident as of last night that the Machinists were on the verge of endorsing them.
"We began this process with invitation to five Democratic candidates and five Republican candidates to come participate in a conversation with candidates. Some of the candidates declined," an IAMAW official said. "They were in depth conversations, held before 700 IAM leaders from around the United States. We conducted a survey of our membership. We also conducted polling of the folks at the site and so we had a pretty extensive outreach program to try to ascertain what our folks wanted to do. And Sen. Clinton received the most support."
** A labor political official not affiliated with the Machinists told me, "They want a winner! And a frontrunner with HRC's pedigree has no downside. Sure Edwards is great on labor but she looks more like a winner."
Bottom line: it's clear that John Edwards will suffer politically if he can't convince insiders and labor allies that he can win.
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A Major Industrial Union Endorses Hillary Clinton
The campaign, in a press release:
The Clinton Campaign today announced the endorsement of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. The IAM is among the nation’s largest industrial trade unions, representing over 700,000 active and retired members in airline, aerospace, manufacturing, railroad, woodworking and shipbuilding industries, and is a member of the AFL-CIO.
“Hillary Clinton earned the IAM’s endorsement by focusing on jobs, health care, education and trade – the bread and butter issues of the American middle class,” said IAM International President Tom Buffenbarger. “She is the only candidate of either party to come forward with a comprehensive manufacturing policy and the only candidate to connect with millions of Americans who feel invisible to the current administration.”
When I figure out what this means, I'll write more.
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Thompson's Plans Clear Today?
Today may be the day when word leaks out that Fred Thompson has started to tell his friends and donors that he's definitely running.
His political director, Randy Enwright, has a 3:00 pm conference call with top campaign supporters to discuss... the future.
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The Edwards-Clinton Mutual Sustainability Pact
John Edwards remains strong in Iowa, per a new Time Magazine poll.
John Edwards and Hillary Clinton have a mutual interest in seeing each other's candidacy prosper over the next four months.
Edwards wants Clinton's national poll ratings to rise, rise, rise. That way, if/when he beats her in Iowa, he will have slain a giant. Also, the thinking in Edwards land is that if Clinton rises, the press will conclude that Barack Obama is falling.
Clinton wants Edwards to keep his lead in Iowa and remain competitive nationally. Some of her advisers figure that Edwards and Obama are competing for largely overlapping pool of undecided voters.
Edwards also fires at Obama from his left and provides voters with a nice contrast, in the minds of the Clinton campaign, in terms of policy. It's probably true that some Clinton advisers are comfortable, right now, with John Edwards's being seen as the boldest candidate, policy-wise. Better Edwards than Obama.
Defeating Edwards in Iowa -- something the Clinton campaign believes is doable but not absolutely vital -- could clinch the nomination for Clinton if and only if Edwards remains strong enough to be...beaten.
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Michigan House Will Vote On Primary Today
Today, the Michigan House of Representatives will vote on a bill to establish a statewide Jan. 15 primary. Some dissident legislators may try, at the last moment, to change the date to Jan. 8 -- but their move is unlikely to withstand the forces in support of the mid-January date.
Assuming the bill passes, there will be a brief House/Senate conference, and Gov. Jennifer Granholm will sign the bill into law.
At that point, Michigan's Democratic Party chair, Mark Brewer, has a choice. Does he support the primary? Does he somehow try to opt out and hold a caucus? Does it matter what he does or thinks once the legislature has acted?
The state's most powerful union -- the UAW -- is on board with the Jan. 15. date. That's contrary to what I reported two weeks ago. I was in error. A minority of UAW political types want a caucus, but the union's top leadership has committed to support a statewide primary.
If Michigan moves to Jan. 15, the Democratic National Committee will probably strip the state of all its delegates.
John Edwards and Barack Obama will be faced with a series of questions: is it better to husband resources for states that have delegates? Could they get away with skipping a primary in a must-win general election state like Michigan? How will the media cover the primary?
The Republican National Committee would penalize Michigan, but half the state's delegates would still be in play. In a Jan. 15 primary -- as opposed to a caucus or a convention -- it's concievable that a candidate with post-Iowa/NH momentum could perform really well. It would be much more parlous for any Republican to skip the state.
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Republicans, Gays And Larry Craig: Is The GOP Anti-Gay?
Some final thoughts on the debate about Larry Craig. What follows is based on the presumption that Sen. Craig was doing in the bathroom what the police believed he was doing.
** It seems as that Sen. Craig would rather risk a lifetime -- literally, a lifetime -- of national ridicule and mockery, of whispers that his marriage is a sham, of suspicion every time he ducks into a Capitol Hill bathroom, than he would engage in an intense, scary, period of introspection.
** Are liberals hypocrites for conveniently pulling down their public policy v. private morality curtain when it comes to conservative sins? The premise is that a workable boundary between private morality and public policy can be found somewhere. I'm not so sure. And I'm pretty sure that most gay people would reject the idea that their sexual orientation is somehow an exclusively personal, private subject, especially when they cannot adopt children, can be fired from their jobs, can't visit loved ones in hospitals in some cases, etc.
** Patrick Ruffini has a point. It's absurd to label every politician or person who opposes gay marriage and gays in the military as anti-gay. Many aren't. That doesn't mean they're pro-gay -- it's just that for them the issue of homosexuality is not important. They may be uncomfortable with it, but they oppose discrimination more than they oppose homosexuality, or they have other values that conflict with the idea that it's wise to operationalize anti-gay sentiment into public policy.
** But Ruffini must also recognize: a large and influential segment of the Republican Party's activist base is anti-gay. Not anti-gay rights -- though, of course, they're "anti" that too -- but anti-gay, meaning that that homosexuality itself is the problem; that the gay rights movement represents the apex of libertinism; that homosexuality is dangerous; that it is anti-Biblical; that it deserves the shame of the culture and not the sanction of the government.
Somehow, calling a segment of the Republican base "anti-gay" is controversial; I mean it descriptively. A large segment of the Democratic base approves of, tolerates, and favors government recognition of homosexuality. (Somehow, I cannot get my brain around the idea of separating "gay rights" from "being gay.")
The more-than hundred million Americans who disapprove of homosexuality -- i.e., "gay" -- are more likely than not Republicans. (I am eliding, deliberately, over the Christian "love the sinner/hate the sin" dichotomy, which brings up extraordinarily complex theological and personal issues that do not directly pertain to politics. Ross Douthat might oblige.)
** It would be logically absurd (again) to call the Republican Party itself "anti-gay" because a large part of its base is. But it is true that "family values" as a concept has been defined by conservative political actors within the Republican Party to incorporate, among many other things, an anti-gay impulse that is prevalent in the Republican base.
** Many, many Republicans inside the Beltway like Ruffini who privately tolerate homosexuality and who do not believe that it is sinful. This disjuncture has been a source of tension within the party.
As to the relationship between Republicans and gays, I've written about it here, and Dale Carpenter has a prediction that rings true:
For the GOP, this alloy of public rejection and private acceptance means enduring more of these periodic public morality convulsions. How to end it? The private acceptance will continue and, I predict, become even more prevalent as young conservatives comfortable around gay people take over. There will be no purging the party of gays. There is no practical way to purge them, and even if there were, most Republicans would be personally repulsed by such an effort.
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Rereading The Polls: Does Edwards Really Do Better Against Giuliani?
Does John Edwards consistently beat Hillary Clinton in head-to-head matchups against Rudy Giuliani in national polls?
Says a senior Clinton adviser of this memo from Edwards pollster Harrison Hickman: "If 'Edwards' is Hickman’s secret code name for 'Hillary Clinton,' then he is correct."
They point out that, because Edwards has dropped into single digits in some national Democratic primary polls, fewer pollsters are testing him against Republicans.
And in some of the most recent national and state polls, Clinton seems to have a comparable lead -- or even, in case, a bigger lead. Consider Quinnipiac's six-day national survey ending 8/13.
Clinton: 46 Giuliani: 43
Edwards: 43 Giuliani: 42
The California-based Field poll:
Clinton: 52 Giuliani: 37
Edwards: 47 Giuliani: 42
The Concord Monitor's latest poll (July)
Clinton: 47 Giuliani: 45
Edwards: 43 Giuliani: 44
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Fred Thompson Interviews Todd Harris
Republican sources say that Todd Harris, a veteran Republican communicator who has worked for Jeb Bush, Arnold Schwarzenegger and John McCain, sat down in McLean, VA today with Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson.
Harris did not respond to an e-mail seeking comment. He is a principal of DC Navigators, a firm run by Mike Murphy, a strategist, in the past, for both John McCain and Mitt Romney.
If Harris is in contention for a campaign job, he would join former Fox News producer Jim Mills and former Senate aide Robert Traynham as members of Thompson's communications staff.
On Monday, campaign manager Bill Lacy asked communications director Linda Rozett to resign because she did not, in his mind, have enough presidential campaign experience.
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Original Document: Obama's Field Director On Enthusiasm And Organization
How will Sen. Barack Obama harness the enthusiasm that greets his every appearance? That's been a strategic question the campaign has debated from day one, and judging by a spate of recent articles in the press, one that they're ready to start answering in public. Here's a memo sent to campaign insiders today by Temo Figueroa, Obama's national field director.
Figueroa starts with the Obama Campaign Litany (tm), familiar to anyone who has interviwed any senior campaign official.
Barack Obama’s campaign for the White House has generated unprecedented grassroots enthusiasm. As he has traveled across the country he has been greeted by crowds of more than 20,000 in Atlanta, GA; 20,000 in Austin, TX and a historic crowd of 10,000 in Iowa City, IA.
But:
But the question people keep asking is – how are we going to channel this enthusiasm into an organization capable of delivering victories in the early states and the February 5th states? Democrats have seen this before, an overwhelming surge of support from young people and candidates who can bring new people into the process, but this campaign is not just about a new kind of candidate, it is about a new campaign focused on exploiting the “enthusiasm gap” we enjoy over the other candidates by marrying traditional field organizing training with the community organizing tactics Obama learned as a young man on the south side of Chicago.
Read the full memo after the jump.
Continue reading "Original Document: Obama's Field Director On Enthusiasm And Organization" »
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Larry Craig's Excuses
Copied from, and with sincere appreciation to, ABC News's The Note:
Collecting the reasons that Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho, didn’t do it:
1. “Wide stance.”
2. “He said/he said.”
3. Roaming toilet paper.
4. He’s a commuter. (?)
5. “Witch hunt.”
6. “Jiminy!”
7. “I am not gay. I never have been gay.”
8. “I am not gay. I love my wife.”
Craig also, apparently, loves political reporters. (Imagine what the next 36 hours will bring. And is he holding out the possibility of becoming gay in the future?)
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Romney Returns To The Air
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, which took down its TV ads early last week to save money before Labor Day, will be back on the air on network affiliate stations by Thursday.
According to a rival campaign media buyer, Romney's campaign placed orders for approximately 200 to 350 gross ratings points worth of ads in Iowa markets, 250 gross ratings points on WMUR in New Hampshire and 150 GRPS in other New Hampshire markets.
GRPs are calculated by multiplying a spot's reach by the number of times it airs. If a spot airs on televison programs that reach 30 percent of Des Moines viewers five times, the campaign would have purchased about 150 GRPS. Generally, 1000 GRPS constitutes market saturation.
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More Coalitions For Rudy: First Responders
Day one of Rudy Giuliani's coalitions roll-out was dedicated to small business owners. Day two, per the campaign, will be first responders.
Today, at the Pelham-Batesville Firehouse in Pelham, SC, Giuliani's campaign will announce that ex-NYPD pol. comm/fire comm, Howard Safir will be the national chair of First Responders for Rudy. Also: Rep. Dave Reichert of Washington State, a former sheriff of King County and, importantly in South Carolina, state firefighters association executive director Jim Bowie.
The New York branch of the affinity group will be led by a professor of fire science at John Jay College. Jim Boyle is also a former FDNY firefighter and ex-president of the firefighters' union in the city.
Other states represented on the national "board" include Illinois (Feb. 5), Florida (Jan. 29), and Iowa.. (?)
Ex-FBI counterrrorism/counterintelligence manager Pat D'Amuro will be another national co-chair for New York; he'll also probably play a key role in setting counterrorism policy in a Giuliani administration.
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The Other Hsu Drops
That major Hillary Clinton bundler...who encouraged Winkle Paws and family to pony up tens of thousands... is a fugitive from the law, the Los Angeles Times reports.
He pleaded no contest to grand theft but his lawyer claims he doesn't remember the plea -- a Craigian twist, no?
Campaigns employ compliance offers to make sure that their donors don't violate the laws, but given how frequently these major donors turn out to be.... not so peachy, perhaps they ought to institute background checks for their bundlers.
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Edwards Will Again Push Clinton On Electability
 Sen. John Edwards knows that Sen. Hillary Clinton's biggest vulnerability among Democrats is the perception that she is not electable. A polling memo prepared for internal campaign consumption but obtained by this semi-checked out column shows the reasons why.
Pollster Harrison Hickman summarizes the national numbers:
Nationwide general election polling shows John Edwards is the Democrat with the best chance of defeating the Republican candidate in the 2008 general election for President. Edwards is the only Democrat with a significant lead in a head-to-head match-up against Republican frontrunner Giuliani.
Against the other three major Republican candidates, Edwards’ average margin of victory is virtually identical to that of Barack Obama, and significantly higher than Hillary Clinton’s average margin. Edwards also outperforms the other Democratic candidates in match-ups with Republican candidates in key battleground states including Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Further, unlike other Democrats who must “run the table” in states where Democrats have been competitive in recent elections, Edwards brings new states into play. This provides alternate scenarios – and a margin for error – when it comes to amassing 270 electoral votes.
The buried news here is that Barack Obama does almost as well -- except against Giuliani, where Edwards does a little better. Edwards is smart to make an argument out of the Electoral College map: Giuliani puts New Jersey and Pennsylvania into play almost instantly, and the Democrats will need to find ways to force Republicans to spend money in previously red states... Virginia among them.
In looking at the overall win-loss-tie records, Edwards again stands out with easily the best total
record.
At least one poll in the last two and a half months shows Clinton losing to every Republican
challenger, even Romney and Thompson, who neither defeat nor tie either Obama or Edwards,
confirming Clinton as the weakest major Democrat in the general election.
Edwards’ status as the best Democrat against frontrunner Giuliani is again confirmed by this
measure, as he suffers no losses, while both Clinton and Obama struggle to win more than they
lose in that matchup.
I've written about this elsewhere; I think the case is less cut-and-dried than Edwards makes it out to be, but it's not my case to make -- it's Clinton's.
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Florida Vows To Go Ahead With Jan. 29 Primary
NBC's Mark Murray reports that Florida's 10 congressional Dems "said that they're firmly set to go ahead with their primary on January 29, despite the Democratic National Committee's vow that it will strip all of state party's delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention -- unless the Florida Democratic Party acts in the next 30 days to delay its nominating contest (in the form of a caucus)."
"We cannot go along with anything but the state-run primary set for next January," the lawmakers said in the statement. "We strongly encourage all Democrats to vote for their preferred nominee in that primary, regardless of whatever penalties the DNC might enact."
But, in the last paragraph of the statement, the lawmakers did suggest that they're willing to reach some kind of compromise. "We hope that over the next few weeks, the DNC and its chairman will show a willingness to work with us to find an equitable solution that is acceptable to all."
The DNC will not budge.
And if Florida Democrats sue, look for the DNC to cite a 1981 Supreme Court case, Democratic Party of the United States v. Wisconsin ex rel. LaFollette, 450 U.S. 107 , which held that the DNC had no obligation to seat any delegates from Wisconsin that were chosen in a primary that violated DNC rules. Additionally, of course, the constitution states fairly explicitly that political parties, not states, determine the rules by which presidential candidates are nominated. The DNC will further ague, if it has to, that the party is not a "covered juridiction" under Article 5 of the Voting Rights Act and is therefore fairly immune from a voting rights act challenge over the facts of this particular case.
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Craig: Newspaper Witch-hunt Caused My Guilty Plea
Please let me apologize to my family, freinds and staff and fellow Idahoans for the cloud placed over Idaho. I did nothing wrong at the Minneapolis airport.
In June, I overreacted and made a poor decision. While I was not involved in any inappropriate conduct at the Minneapolis airport nor anywhere else.
I chose to plead guilty to a lesser charge in the hopes of making it go away.
I did not seek any counsel from am attorney, staff, friends or family. That was a mistake and i deeply regret it. because of that, I have now retained counsel and i am asking counsel to review this matter and to advise me on how to proceed.
I want to put my state of mind in the context of June 11. For 8 months, leading up to June 11, my family and I have been relentessly and viciously harassed by the Idaho Statesman. If you saw the article today, you know why. Let me be clear. I am not gay. I never have been gay.
Craig says he's not stepping down and will announce next month whether he'll seek re-election.
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Craig "Not Gay," Blames Newspaper "Witchhunt"; Apologizes To Family
Basically:
He's not gay; he did nothing wrong; he regrets his decision to plead guilty; he blames his guilty plea on the stress brought on by a newspaper's investigation into his sex life.
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Senate Republicans Want Ethics Investigation Into Craig
They've learned their lesson from the Mark Foley mess.
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The following is a statement by Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, Assistant Leader Trent Lott, Conference Chairman Jon Kyl, Policy Committee Chair Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Senatorial Committee Chair John Ensign on the incident involving Senator Larry Craig.
“Late yesterday we became aware of the incident involving Senator Larry Craig and his subsequent admission of guilt in a Minnesota court. This is a serious matter. Due to the reported and disputed circumstances, and the legal resolution of this serious case, we will recommend that Senator Craig’s incident be reported to the Senate Ethics Committee for its review. In the meantime, Leadership is examining other aspects of the case to determine if additional action is required.”
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Craig To Speak At 4:30 ET....
Sen. Larry Craig will have something to say. Watch it live, at 4:30pm, on your nearest cable network.
Meanwhile:
The leading cultural conservative group in Idaho is watching anxiously.
Idaho Values Alliance executive director Bryan Fischer urged people to pray for U.S. Sen. Larry Craig and his family, but also called for his resignation if allegations that he engaged in lewd behavior in a Minneapolis airport restroom are true.
"There are disturbing questions raised by the police report that the senator needs to address in full, so that Idahoans will have all the information they need to make an informed judgment about what happened and how it reflects on Sen. Craig's fitness to continue in public office," Fischer said in a Tuesday press release. "If the senator did indeed engage in the behavior to which he pled guilty, then the appropriate thing for him to do is to resign from office."
And -- good news for Mark Foley.
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McCain Qualifies For Federal Matching Funds
He's the first.
To become eligible for matching funds, candidates must raise a threshold amount of $100,000 by collecting $5,000 in 20 different states in amounts no greater than $250 from any individual. Other requirements to be declared eligible include agreeing to an overall spending limit, abiding by spending limits in each state, using public funds only for legitimate campaign-related expenses, keeping financial records and permitting an extensive campaign audit.
Based on documents filed by the McCain campaign on August 10, 2007, contributions from the following states were verified for threshold purposes: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Washington. All of the materials included with this submission may be viewed here.
McCain's spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker, explains: "We submitted what is called a state threshold submission. Under the regulations, a candidate must have received at least 5K in contributions in any 20 states to qualify for matching funds. The submission we made entitles us to no money – it simply allows us to move forward in the process. We have not yet made a final decision yet."
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Clinton's First Union Endorsement
The Clinton Campaign today announced the endorsement of the United Transportation Union. UTU represents 125,000 active and retired members in the railroad, bus and public transit sectors across America.
Watch for several major unions to endorse John Edwards after Labor Day.
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