Breaking news from Michigan: there won't be a Democratic caucus in Michigan. There will be a Democratic Primary on Jan. 15. The Michigan Democratic Party will resubmit its delegate selection plan to the DNC. The DNC will find the plan in non-compliance and strip Michigan of its delegates. The candidates will then have to decide whether to compete there.
But there is, as of 4:30 pm ET today, unanimity among Democrats -- state party chair Mark Brewer has capitulated to the pressure of Gov. Granholm, the UAW and others.
The state party released a statement moments ago:
“The leadership of the Michigan Democratic Party today announced their intention to comply with the new state law establishing a January 15, 2008 presidential primary, and to select their delegates to the Democratic National Convention on that day.”
“Michigan Democrats are taking this step in direct response to the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s statement of intent on August 9th, supported by the Democratic leadership of New Hampshire, to hold the New Hampshire primary before January 19, 2008, in direct violation of the DNC Rules that state that New Hampshire’s delegates cannot be selected at a primary held earlier than January 22, 2008.”
“Michigan Democrats believe that no state should enjoy a privileged position every four years in selecting our party’s presidential nominee. New Hampshire’s stated intent to move their primary before January 19th, in direct violation of the DNC rules, is an effort to perpetuate their self-appointed privileged position. That makes the delegate selection process in other states, including Michigan, less meaningful, and results in the candidates paying less attention to the issues that are important to Michigan and other states.”
Biden On The Pledge
"It is time to end all the maneuvering around the dates of the early primaries and caucuses. We intend not only to sign the pledge, but to honor our pledge to Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina to respect their primacy to the process,” said Biden for President Campaign Manager Luis Navarro. “They played by the rules of the DNC. We respect those rules. The public despises this kind of maneuvering for political advantage. If the Republicans want to play this way, let them. But we will not be a party to it."
Obama On The Pledge
Will he avoid Florida (and Michigan)? No word yet. Here's what a campaign spokesman says: "Senator Obama believes the four early states play a vitally important role in the nomination process and would like to see their status maintained for the 2008 primary season."
More On The Four-State Pledge: Two Sign, One...
Two Democratic presidential candidates, Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Chris Dodd, have pledged to "honor the status" of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada by refusing to actively campaign in states found to be violation of the Democratic National Committee's delegate selection rules.
Does that mean that Richardson, potentially the first Hispanic president. won't participate in the first Hispanic language debate of the cycle -- next week's Univision debate at the BankUnited Center at the University of Miami? Yes -- he still can, according to the four-state consortium.
Mo Elleithee, a spokesman for Hillary Clinton, said that the campaign "received the letter and we are reviewing it. Sen. Clinton is 100% committed to campaigning in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina. She believes that these four states have a unique and special role in the process. There are other states that are going through a process now and we are going to let that process play out. But no matter what happens with those states, that will not affect our committment to these four states and we will compete in those states no matter what day those primaries or caucus are held."
The campaigns of Sen. Joe Biden, Ex-Sen. John Edwards, and Sen. Barack Obama have yet to respond.
Michigan: Dems May Caucus On Feb. 9, Regardless
There's a fierce behind-the-scenes battle among Michigan Dems right now about the Jan. 15 primary. State chairman Mark Brewer is prepared to announce that the party will hold its caucus as planned on Feb. 9.
The Michigan Democratic Party has already submitted its delegate selection plan to the Democratic National Committee. Today, Gov. Jennifer Granholm and the state's powerful UAW are trying to force Brewer to agree to submit a plan that reflects the Jan. 15 primary.
I'll write an update when I know more.
The Pledge: Four States Urge Dems To Avoid Campaigning In Non-Compliant States
The Democratic party chairs of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada just sent the Dem presidential candidates this pledge:
WHEREAS, over a year ago, the Democratic National Committee established a
2008 nominating calendar;
WHEREAS, this calendar honors the racial, ethnic, economic and geographic
diversity of our party and our country;
WHEREAS, the DNC also honored the traditional role of retail politics early in the
nominating process, to ensure that money alone will not determine our
presidential nominee;
WHEREAS, it is the desire of Presidential campaigns, the DNC, the states and
the American people to bring finality, predictability and common sense to the
nominating calendar.
THEREFORE, I _______________, Democratic Candidate for President, pledge
I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential
election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa,
Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as “campaigning” is defined by the
rules and regulations of the DNC. It does not include activities specifically
related to raising campaign resources such as fundraising events or the hiring of
fundraising staff.
_____________________________ __________
Basically: don't linger in Florida (or Michigan, maybe) too long.
Virginia In 2008
This is a blog about the 2008 presidential race, so we don't usually weigh in on developments down the ballot. The retirement announcement today of Sen. John Warner, however, will reverberate in the presidential orbit. For one thing, there is a near universal consensus that Warner's retirement puts his seat in jeopardy for the Republicans.
Ex-Gov. Mark Warner, a once-upon-a-time presidential candidate, is probably going to run for the Democratic nomination. He is extremely popular; he will be heavily favored to win; his race will draw upon the same grassroots energies that excited the Democratic base in 2006. Having Warner on the ballot will help the Democratic presidential nominee in Virginia.
Both Mark Warner and Sen. James Webb are considered by the politigensia to be potential vice presidential picks this year. Needless to say, Warner would take himself out of consideration by running for Senate. Will Webb be more attractive, or less attractive, if as a running mate in Warner is on the ballot? It's not clear.
Hillary Clinton's Top Ten List
Gay Marriage In Iowa
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, who wants to cement his standing among social conservatives in Iowa, could not have asked for a better post-labor day gift than the decision by a Polk. Co. judge to throw out the state's voter-passed gay marriage law.
It's the lead story across the state today, and Romney is already getting props from conservatives for his response.
Dean Urges Presidential Candidates To Adhere To Calendar
In a strongly worded letter to the Democratic presidential candidates, DNC chair Howard Dean urges them to abide by the calendar and delegate selection process set out by the committee. Dean does not address what would happen if the candidates stray from the rules and campaign in penalized states like Florida.
"As the leader of the Democratic Party, I strongly urge you to adhere to the 2008 delegate selection rules."
Last weekend, the party's rules and bylaws committee found Florida's proposed Jan. 29 primary in noncompliance. They stripped the state of all of its delegates, pending a decision by Florida to revise its plan. Florida refused and has threatened to sue the DNC for depriving Democrats the right to vote.
"My goal as Chairman, and our objective as a Party, is to structure a nominating process that adheres to rules that are clear, straightforward and published. The vast majority of states have complied with these rules," Dean writes. "The RBC did one thing on Saturday: enforced the Party's rules."
According to an aide to Sen. John McCain, September is "crucial" to the well-being and continued existence of the campaign.
McCain has already been booked on major television shows to discuss Gen. David Petraeus's report.
He'll take major bus tours through early primary states, holding at least a dozen town-hall style events in each.
Later in the month, he and several of his POW brothers will participate in what the campaign calls its "No Surrender" tour, urging Americans to consider the implications of an Iraq withdrawal. The key words: McCain's biography, his courage, his service.
Look for McCain to make two major policy speeches in September: one will focus on energy; the other, on health care.
And then fundraisers. The campaign, wisely, isn't setting any expectations, but aides insist that McCain is comfortable with the amount of money coming in.
Clinton's Campaign Goes Dark
Word from reliable media buying sources is that Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign has no discernable television ad presence for at least the next two weeks. That means that Clinton's first ad lasted for a week.
One guess is that the Clinton campaign used the ad to test whether it moved numbers. Whether it did -- well, the campaign probably won't let anyone know. Suffice it to say, unless the Clinton campaign has been spending like gangbusters, they have plenty of money to run television ads right now.
Fred's Timing Makes Sense
The disclosure benefits aside, there are benefits to announcing on September 6.
Consider: Congress is back in session. On September 10, House members will receive a detailed briefing from Gen. David Petraeus about Iraq; the Senate's briefing is scheduled, tenatively, for two days later.
It's likely that the administration will begin to roll out the thrust of Petraeus report that weekend. The national poltical press corps -- most of them, anyway -- will be in one place: with Thompson.
August 30, 2007
News: Thompson's Campaign Theme
An aide to Fred Thompson tells me that the campaign has settled on its mantra: Security, Unity and Prosperity. Those words will be emblazoned on the side of a Big Ol' Fred bus that will tour the early primary states next week.
The Official Thompson Press Release
Thompson to Announce Run for President with Online Video Followed by Three-State Campaign Tour
McLean, VA – On September 6, 2007, Fred Thompson will be announcing his intention to run for President of the United States with a webcast available to millions at www.imwithfred.com. The launch of the video will be followed by a five-day campaign tour through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
“I believe that there are millions of Americans who know that our security and prosperity are at risk if we don’t address the challenges of our time; the global threat of terrorism; taxes and spending that will bankrupt future generations, and a government that can’t seem to get the most basic responsibilities right for its citizens,” stated Fred Thompson.
“The response that we’ve received makes me confident that we have an opportunity to change politics in Washington and across the country, and take on these challenges the way every generation of Americans has faced the challenges of their time – with unity, hard work and a belief that we will come out on the winning side,” continued Thompson.
“We enter this campaign in a strong position,” said committee manager Bill Lacy. “Fred is consistently near the top in the polls, and conservatives across the country have put together the closest thing to a draft in recent presidential campaign history in an effort to bring about this day. The next few weeks will only serve to build upon those efforts, with house parties nationwide on the 6th, and visits to the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, quickly followed by stops in Florida and a homecoming in Lawrenceburg, TN on the 15th.”
“By announcing via webcast, Fred is able to take his consistently mainstream conservative message directly to the voters, who are already responding to that message with a strong upwelling of grassroots support. The webcast and the following campaign tour will play to Fred’s strengths, a consistent record of conservatism, his ability to clearly spread his message, and his ability to work with and connect with Americans from all walks of life,” said Lacy.
The committee will file our formal paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission within 15 days, the time allowed by law after Fred decided to run. Additionally, we will begin to consider candidate based events following Fred’s broadcast on September 6, 2007.
Campaign tour cities and dates are listed below. Exact event locations will be released in the coming days.
Thursday, September 6
Afternoon Des Moines, IA
Evening Council Bluffs, IA
Friday, September 7
Morning Sioux City, IA
Evening Mason City, IA
Saturday, September 8
Morning Cedar Rapids, IA
Afternoon Davenport, IA
Evening Portsmouth, NH
Sunday, September 9
Afternoon Manchester, NH
Evening Nashua, NH
Monday, September 10
Morning Charleston, SC
Afternoon Columbia, SC
Fred's Announcement Details
--September 6, 2007.
--Via webcast.
--Then onto a tour of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, followed by a stop in Tennessee.
--He's skipping the next New Hampshire Republican debate on the 5th. I kind of predicted it.
How can Fred Thompson best manage financial expectations when he gets in the race? One smart Republican election lawyer describes a scenario that extends his roll-out over several months, giving him a nice, long pad before he's forced to disclose his personal finances.
Remember, Sen. Thompson is an original co-sponsor of McCain-Feingold and would therefore not need any incentive to act in the spirit of transparency and disclosure that federal election law fosters.
Or, he could:
On Sept. 6, announce his intent to run,
On Sept. 21, open his candidate committee with the Federal Election Commission -- he has 15 days from the start of federal activities.
On Oct. 1, Thompson’s statement of organization would be due, which makes the whole thing official.
This means that Thompson would not have to file his first FEC report until January, and he'd be required to file his personal financial disclosure forms in early October, unless he gets extensions -- Mitt Romney's already gotten two of them.
Gay Marriage Ban Struck Down In Iowa
Meet your next issue, presidential candidates.
From the AP:
A Polk County judge on Thursday struck down Iowa’s law banning gay marriage.
The ruling by Judge Robert Hanson concluded that the state’s prohibition on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional and he ordered Polk County Recorder Tim Brien to issue marriage licenses to several gay couples.
“It’s a moral victory for equal rights,” said Des Moines lawyer Dennis Johnson, who represented six gay couples who filed suit after they were denied marriage licenses.
Huckabee Gets His IAM Endorsement
It's official now. The machinists' Republican endorsement is the surging governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee.
LITTLE ROCK, AR – Former Governor Mike Huckabee (AR) won the support of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) today. The IAM, for the first time in its 119 year history, endorsed candidates in both the Republican and Democratic primaries.
Huckabee welcomed the IAM endorsement stating, “I’m proud to have the support of the workers who bring prosperity to America on a daily basis.”
Huckabee spoke before over 700 members of the IAM in Orlando, Florida on Monday about jobs, globalization, health care, and other 21st century domestic issues. During his conversation with IAM workers, Huckabee stated, “In order for this country to be free, there are three things we must do: feed ourselves, fuel ourselves and fight for ourselves. That means we need to be manufacturing our own means of defense and making it a national security issue.”
During his speech on Monday night, Huckabee outlined his program to improve the lives of working Americans, including his support of the Fair Tax. Under the Fair Tax, he said, “American companies are far less likely to move overseas and foreign companies are far more likely to come here, hiring Americans to build and work in their new plants.”
The IAM's Endorsement Of Hillary Clinton: A Surprise, And A Blow To Edwards
** The Machinists' decision to endorse Sen. Hillary Clinton -- and Gov. Mile Huckabee of Arkansas -- comes as a surprise to advisers for Sen. John Edwards, some of whom were confident as of last night that the Machinists were on the verge of endorsing them.
"We began this process with invitation to five Democratic candidates and five Republican candidates to come participate in a conversation with candidates. Some of the candidates declined," an IAMAW official said. "They were in depth conversations, held before 700 IAM leaders from around the United States. We conducted a survey of our membership. We also conducted polling of the folks at the site and so we had a pretty extensive outreach program to try to ascertain what our folks wanted to do. And Sen. Clinton received the most support."
** A labor political official not affiliated with the Machinists told me, "They want a winner! And a frontrunner with HRC's pedigree has no downside. Sure Edwards is great on labor but she looks more like a winner."
Bottom line: it's clear that John Edwards will suffer politically if he can't convince insiders and labor allies that he can win.
A Major Industrial Union Endorses Hillary Clinton
The campaign, in a press release:
The Clinton Campaign today announced the endorsement of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. The IAM is among the nation’s largest industrial trade unions, representing over 700,000 active and retired members in airline, aerospace, manufacturing, railroad, woodworking and shipbuilding industries, and is a member of the AFL-CIO.
“Hillary Clinton earned the IAM’s endorsement by focusing on jobs, health care, education and trade – the bread and butter issues of the American middle class,” said IAM International President Tom Buffenbarger. “She is the only candidate of either party to come forward with a comprehensive manufacturing policy and the only candidate to connect with millions of Americans who feel invisible to the current administration.”
When I figure out what this means, I'll write more.
Thompson's Plans Clear Today?
Today may be the day when word leaks out that Fred Thompson has started to tell his friends and donors that he's definitely running.
His political director, Randy Enwright, has a 3:00 pm conference call with top campaign supporters to discuss... the future.
John Edwards and Hillary Clinton have a mutual interest in seeing each other's candidacy prosper over the next four months.
Edwards wants Clinton's national poll ratings to rise, rise, rise. That way, if/when he beats her in Iowa, he will have slain a giant. Also, the thinking in Edwards land is that if Clinton rises, the press will conclude that Barack Obama is falling.
Clinton wants Edwards to keep his lead in Iowa and remain competitive nationally. Some of her advisers figure that Edwards and Obama are competing for largely overlapping pool of undecided voters.
Edwards also fires at Obama from his left and provides voters with a nice contrast, in the minds of the Clinton campaign, in terms of policy. It's probably true that some Clinton advisers are comfortable, right now, with John Edwards's being seen as the boldest candidate, policy-wise. Better Edwards than Obama.
Defeating Edwards in Iowa -- something the Clinton campaign believes is doable but not absolutely vital -- could clinch the nomination for Clinton if and only if Edwards remains strong enough to be...beaten.
Michigan House Will Vote On Primary Today
Today, the Michigan House of Representatives will vote on a bill to establish a statewide Jan. 15 primary. Some dissident legislators may try, at the last moment, to change the date to Jan. 8 -- but their move is unlikely to withstand the forces in support of the mid-January date.
Assuming the bill passes, there will be a brief House/Senate conference, and Gov. Jennifer Granholm will sign the bill into law.
At that point, Michigan's Democratic Party chair, Mark Brewer, has a choice. Does he support the primary? Does he somehow try to opt out and hold a caucus? Does it matter what he does or thinks once the legislature has acted?
The state's most powerful union -- the UAW -- is on board with the Jan. 15. date. That's contrary to what I reported two weeks ago. I was in error. A minority of UAW political types want a caucus, but the union's top leadership has committed to support a statewide primary.
If Michigan moves to Jan. 15, the Democratic National Committee will probably strip the state of all its delegates.
John Edwards and Barack Obama will be faced with a series of questions: is it better to husband resources for states that have delegates? Could they get away with skipping a primary in a must-win general election state like Michigan? How will the media cover the primary?
The Republican National Committee would penalize Michigan, but half the state's delegates would still be in play. In a Jan. 15 primary -- as opposed to a caucus or a convention -- it's concievable that a candidate with post-Iowa/NH momentum could perform really well. It would be much more parlous for any Republican to skip the state.
Romney Shows Legs; McCain Shows Wounds
Romney's first new ad in Iowa and New Hampshire.
And a John McCain web ad:
August 29, 2007
Republicans, Gays And Larry Craig: Is The GOP Anti-Gay?
Some final thoughts on the debate about Larry Craig. What follows is based on the presumption that Sen. Craig was doing in the bathroom what the police believed he was doing.
** It seems as that Sen. Craig would rather risk a lifetime -- literally, a lifetime -- of national ridicule and mockery, of whispers that his marriage is a sham, of suspicion every time he ducks into a Capitol Hill bathroom, than he would engage in an intense, scary, period of introspection.
** Are liberals hypocrites for conveniently pulling down their public policy v. private morality curtain when it comes to conservative sins? The premise is that a workable boundary between private morality and public policy can be found somewhere. I'm not so sure. And I'm pretty sure that most gay people would reject the idea that their sexual orientation is somehow an exclusively personal, private subject, especially when they cannot adopt children, can be fired from their jobs, can't visit loved ones in hospitals in some cases, etc.
** Patrick Ruffini has a point. It's absurd to label every politician or person who opposes gay marriage and gays in the military as anti-gay. Many aren't. That doesn't mean they're pro-gay -- it's just that for them the issue of homosexuality is not important. They may be uncomfortable with it, but they oppose discrimination more than they oppose homosexuality, or they have other values that conflict with the idea that it's wise to operationalize anti-gay sentiment into public policy.
** But Ruffini must also recognize: a large and influential segment of the Republican Party's activist base is anti-gay. Not anti-gay rights -- though, of course, they're "anti" that too -- but anti-gay, meaning that that homosexuality itself is the problem; that the gay rights movement represents the apex of libertinism; that homosexuality is dangerous; that it is anti-Biblical; that it deserves the shame of the culture and not the sanction of the government.
Somehow, calling a segment of the Republican base "anti-gay" is controversial; I mean it descriptively. A large segment of the Democratic base approves of, tolerates, and favors government recognition of homosexuality. (Somehow, I cannot get my brain around the idea of separating "gay rights" from "being gay.")
The more-than hundred million Americans who disapprove of homosexuality -- i.e., "gay" -- are more likely than not Republicans. (I am eliding, deliberately, over the Christian "love the sinner/hate the sin" dichotomy, which brings up extraordinarily complex theological and personal issues that do not directly pertain to politics. Ross Douthat might oblige.)
** It would be logically absurd (again) to call the Republican Party itself "anti-gay" because a large part of its base is. But it is true that "family values" as a concept has been defined by conservative political actors within the Republican Party to incorporate, among many other things, an anti-gay impulse that is prevalent in the Republican base.
** Many, many Republicans inside the Beltway like Ruffini who privately tolerate homosexuality and who do not believe that it is sinful. This disjuncture has been a source of tension within the party.
As to the relationship between Republicans and gays, I've written about it here, and Dale Carpenter has a prediction that rings true:
For the GOP, this alloy of public rejection and private acceptance means enduring more of these periodic public morality convulsions. How to end it? The private acceptance will continue and, I predict, become even more prevalent as young conservatives comfortable around gay people take over. There will be no purging the party of gays. There is no practical way to purge them, and even if there were, most Republicans would be personally repulsed by such an effort.
Rereading The Polls: Does Edwards Really Do Better Against Giuliani?
Does John Edwards consistently beat Hillary Clinton in head-to-head matchups against Rudy Giuliani in national polls?
Says a senior Clinton adviser of this memo from Edwards pollster Harrison Hickman: "If 'Edwards' is Hickman’s secret code name for 'Hillary Clinton,' then he is correct."
They point out that, because Edwards has dropped into single digits in some national Democratic primary polls, fewer pollsters are testing him against Republicans.
And in some of the most recent national and state polls, Clinton seems to have a comparable lead -- or even, in case, a bigger lead. Consider Quinnipiac's six-day national survey ending 8/13.
Clinton: 46 Giuliani: 43
Edwards: 43 Giuliani: 42
The California-based Field poll:
Clinton: 52 Giuliani: 37
Edwards: 47 Giuliani: 42
The Concord Monitor's latest poll (July)
Clinton: 47 Giuliani: 45
Edwards: 43 Giuliani: 44
Fred Thompson Interviews Todd Harris
Republican sources say that Todd Harris, a veteran Republican communicator who has worked for Jeb Bush, Arnold Schwarzenegger and John McCain, sat down in McLean, VA today with Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson.
Harris did not respond to an e-mail seeking comment. He is a principal of DC Navigators, a firm run by Mike Murphy, a strategist, in the past, for both John McCain and Mitt Romney.
If Harris is in contention for a campaign job, he would join former Fox News producer Jim Mills and former Senate aide Robert Traynham as members of Thompson's communications staff.
On Monday, campaign manager Bill Lacy asked communications director Linda Rozett to resign because she did not, in his mind, have enough presidential campaign experience.
Original Document: Obama's Field Director On Enthusiasm And Organization
How will Sen. Barack Obama harness the enthusiasm that greets his every appearance? That's been a strategic question the campaign has debated from day one, and judging by a spate of recent articles in the press, one that they're ready to start answering in public. Here's a memo sent to campaign insiders today by Temo Figueroa, Obama's national field director.
Figueroa starts with the Obama Campaign Litany (tm), familiar to anyone who has interviwed any senior campaign official.
Barack Obama’s campaign for the White House has generated unprecedented grassroots enthusiasm. As he has traveled across the country he has been greeted by crowds of more than 20,000 in Atlanta, GA; 20,000 in Austin, TX and a historic crowd of 10,000 in Iowa City, IA.
But:
But the question people keep asking is – how are we going to channel this enthusiasm into an organization capable of delivering victories in the early states and the February 5th states? Democrats have seen this before, an overwhelming surge of support from young people and candidates who can bring new people into the process, but this campaign is not just about a new kind of candidate, it is about a new campaign focused on exploiting the “enthusiasm gap” we enjoy over the other candidates by marrying traditional field organizing training with the community organizing tactics Obama learned as a young man on the south side of Chicago.
Craig also, apparently, loves political reporters. (Imagine what the next 36 hours will bring. And is he holding out the possibility of becoming gay in the future?)
Romney Returns To The Air
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, which took down its TV ads early last week to save money before Labor Day, will be back on the air on network affiliate stations by Thursday.
According to a rival campaign media buyer, Romney's campaign placed orders for approximately 200 to 350 gross ratings points worth of ads in Iowa markets, 250 gross ratings points on WMUR in New Hampshire and 150 GRPS in other New Hampshire markets.
GRPs are calculated by multiplying a spot's reach by the number of times it airs. If a spot airs on televison programs that reach 30 percent of Des Moines viewers five times, the campaign would have purchased about 150 GRPS. Generally, 1000 GRPS constitutes market saturation.
More Coalitions For Rudy: First Responders
Day one of Rudy Giuliani's coalitions roll-out was dedicated to small business owners. Day two, per the campaign, will be first responders.
Today, at the Pelham-Batesville Firehouse in Pelham, SC, Giuliani's campaign will announce that ex-NYPD pol. comm/fire comm, Howard Safir will be the national chair of First Responders for Rudy. Also: Rep. Dave Reichert of Washington State, a former sheriff of King County and, importantly in South Carolina, state firefighters association executive director Jim Bowie.
The New York branch of the affinity group will be led by a professor of fire science at John Jay College. Jim Boyle is also a former FDNY firefighter and ex-president of the firefighters' union in the city.
Other states represented on the national "board" include Illinois (Feb. 5), Florida (Jan. 29), and Iowa.. (?)
Ex-FBI counterrrorism/counterintelligence manager Pat D'Amuro will be another national co-chair for New York; he'll also probably play a key role in setting counterrorism policy in a Giuliani administration.
The Other Hsu Drops
That major Hillary Clinton bundler...who encouraged Winkle Paws and family to pony up tens of thousands... is a fugitive from the law, the Los Angeles Times reports.
He pleaded no contest to grand theft but his lawyer claims he doesn't remember the plea -- a Craigian twist, no?
Campaigns employ compliance offers to make sure that their donors don't violate the laws, but given how frequently these major donors turn out to be.... not so peachy, perhaps they ought to institute background checks for their bundlers.
Edwards Will Again Push Clinton On Electability
Sen. John Edwards knows that Sen. Hillary Clinton's biggest vulnerability among Democrats is the perception that she is not electable. A polling memo prepared for internal campaign consumption but obtained by this semi-checked out column shows the reasons why.
Pollster Harrison Hickman summarizes the national numbers:
Nationwide general election polling shows John Edwards is the Democrat with the best chance of defeating the Republican candidate in the 2008 general election for President. Edwards is the only Democrat with a significant lead in a head-to-head match-up against Republican frontrunner Giuliani.
Against the other three major Republican candidates, Edwards’ average margin of victory is virtually identical to that of Barack Obama, and significantly higher than Hillary Clinton’s average margin. Edwards also outperforms the other Democratic candidates in match-ups with Republican candidates in key battleground states including Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Further, unlike other Democrats who must “run the table” in states where Democrats have been competitive in recent elections, Edwards brings new states into play. This provides alternate scenarios – and a margin for error – when it comes to amassing 270 electoral votes.
The buried news here is that Barack Obama does almost as well -- except against Giuliani, where Edwards does a little better. Edwards is smart to make an argument out of the Electoral College map: Giuliani puts New Jersey and Pennsylvania into play almost instantly, and the Democrats will need to find ways to force Republicans to spend money in previously red states... Virginia among them.
In looking at the overall win-loss-tie records, Edwards again stands out with easily the best total
record.
At least one poll in the last two and a half months shows Clinton losing to every Republican
challenger, even Romney and Thompson, who neither defeat nor tie either Obama or Edwards,
confirming Clinton as the weakest major Democrat in the general election.
Edwards’ status as the best Democrat against frontrunner Giuliani is again confirmed by this
measure, as he suffers no losses, while both Clinton and Obama struggle to win more than they
lose in that matchup.
I've written about this elsewhere; I think the case is less cut-and-dried than Edwards makes it out to be, but it's not my case to make -- it's Clinton's.
August 28, 2007
Florida Vows To Go Ahead With Jan. 29 Primary
NBC's Mark Murray reports that Florida's 10 congressional Dems "said that they're firmly set to go ahead with their primary on January 29, despite the Democratic National Committee's vow that it will strip all of state party's delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention -- unless the Florida Democratic Party acts in the next 30 days to delay its nominating contest (in the form of a caucus)."
"We cannot go along with anything but the state-run primary set for next January," the lawmakers said in the statement. "We strongly encourage all Democrats to vote for their preferred nominee in that primary, regardless of whatever penalties the DNC might enact."
But, in the last paragraph of the statement, the lawmakers did suggest that they're willing to reach some kind of compromise. "We hope that over the next few weeks, the DNC and its chairman will show a willingness to work with us to find an equitable solution that is acceptable to all."
The DNC will not budge.
And if Florida Democrats sue, look for the DNC to cite a 1981 Supreme Court case, Democratic Party of the United States v. Wisconsin ex rel. LaFollette, 450 U.S. 107 , which held that the DNC had no obligation to seat any delegates from Wisconsin that were chosen in a primary that violated DNC rules. Additionally, of course, the constitution states fairly explicitly that political parties, not states, determine the rules by which presidential candidates are nominated. The DNC will further ague, if it has to, that the party is not a "covered juridiction" under Article 5 of the Voting Rights Act and is therefore fairly immune from a voting rights act challenge over the facts of this particular case.
Craig: Newspaper Witch-hunt Caused My Guilty Plea
Please let me apologize to my family, freinds and staff and fellow Idahoans for the cloud placed over Idaho. I did nothing wrong at the Minneapolis airport.
In June, I overreacted and made a poor decision. While I was not involved in any inappropriate conduct at the Minneapolis airport nor anywhere else.
I chose to plead guilty to a lesser charge in the hopes of making it go away.
I did not seek any counsel from am attorney, staff, friends or family. That was a mistake and i deeply regret it. because of that, I have now retained counsel and i am asking counsel to review this matter and to advise me on how to proceed.
I want to put my state of mind in the context of June 11. For 8 months, leading up to June 11, my family and I have been relentessly and viciously harassed by the Idaho Statesman. If you saw the article today, you know why. Let me be clear. I am not gay. I never have been gay.
Craig says he's not stepping down and will announce next month whether he'll seek re-election.
Craig "Not Gay," Blames Newspaper "Witchhunt"; Apologizes To Family
Basically:
He's not gay; he did nothing wrong; he regrets his decision to plead guilty; he blames his guilty plea on the stress brought on by a newspaper's investigation into his sex life.
Senate Republicans Want Ethics Investigation Into Craig
They've learned their lesson from the Mark Foley mess.
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The following is a statement by Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, Assistant Leader Trent Lott, Conference Chairman Jon Kyl, Policy Committee Chair Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Senatorial Committee Chair John Ensign on the incident involving Senator Larry Craig.
“Late yesterday we became aware of the incident involving Senator Larry Craig and his subsequent admission of guilt in a Minnesota court. This is a serious matter. Due to the reported and disputed circumstances, and the legal resolution of this serious case, we will recommend that Senator Craig’s incident be reported to the Senate Ethics Committee for its review. In the meantime, Leadership is examining other aspects of the case to determine if additional action is required.”
Craig To Speak At 4:30 ET....
Sen. Larry Craig will have something to say. Watch it live, at 4:30pm, on your nearest cable network.
Idaho Values Alliance executive director Bryan Fischer urged people to pray for U.S. Sen. Larry Craig and his family, but also called for his resignation if allegations that he engaged in lewd behavior in a Minneapolis airport restroom are true.
"There are disturbing questions raised by the police report that the senator needs to address in full, so that Idahoans will have all the information they need to make an informed judgment about what happened and how it reflects on Sen. Craig's fitness to continue in public office," Fischer said in a Tuesday press release. "If the senator did indeed engage in the behavior to which he pled guilty, then the appropriate thing for him to do is to resign from office."
To become eligible for matching funds, candidates must raise a threshold amount of $100,000 by collecting $5,000 in 20 different states in amounts no greater than $250 from any individual. Other requirements to be declared eligible include agreeing to an overall spending limit, abiding by spending limits in each state, using public funds only for legitimate campaign-related expenses, keeping financial records and permitting an extensive campaign audit.
Based on documents filed by the McCain campaign on August 10, 2007, contributions from the following states were verified for threshold purposes: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Washington. All of the materials included with this submission may be viewed here.
McCain's spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker, explains:
"We submitted what is called a state threshold submission. Under the regulations, a candidate must have received at least 5K in contributions in any 20 states to qualify for matching funds. The submission we made entitles us to no money – it simply allows us to move forward in the process. We have not yet made a final decision yet."
Clinton's First Union Endorsement
The Clinton Campaign today announced the endorsement of the United Transportation Union. UTU represents 125,000 active and retired members in the railroad, bus and public transit sectors across America.
Watch for several major unions to endorse John Edwards after Labor Day.
What Worries Fred Thompson's Supporters
It's not that Fred Thompson answers every question about everything with folksy avunculerisms, it's that he just doesn't really seem to be aware -- or care -- about his supporters' anxiety.
The Tragedy Of Larry Craig
The easiest available moral judgment one might impose on Sen. Larry Craig is that he is guilty of moral hypocrisy. Yet another Republican, anti-gay, turns out to be, well – he says he is not gay, but ___.
Many observers, and not just the press and the Democrats, will fixate on that one category of harm as if it were the most important. Indeed, the chain of Republican men who seek illicit sex from other men is a curious phenomenon of our time and deserves a bit more examination;
Craig, it has to be noted, now says that he erred in pleading guilty and asserts that his behavior was entirely innocent and, implicitly, non-gay.
The tragedy compounds for:
## family. Assuming Craig did what the police complaint says he did, the deepest tragedy here is private and personal. The perpetrators of these victimless crimes often are unable to reconcile their concern for their family’s well-being with their own impulses. Ted Haggard’s wife. Dina Matos McGreevey. Tia Allen, the daughter of Florida Sen. Bob Allen. Etc.
## His staff. Members of former Rep. Mark Foley’s staff had trouble landing new jobs. Their resumes have stains through no fault of their own. They suffered fairly considerable emotional distress and embarrassment – and Foley never apologized to them.
## Gay Republicans. After the Mark Foley calamity, many are just now regaining their confidence, buoyed by the relative lack of attention the White House candidates are paying to the “issue” of homosexuality.
## Gays, generally. Mark Foley blamed his bordering-on-pederasty behavior on childhood molestation; the allegations against Craig reinforce another stereotype.
## His party. When Bill Clinton liaised with Monica Lewinksy in the White House, it hurt the Democratic Party in ways the party still doesn’t quite comprehend. It remains a subtext of his wife’s presidential bid. Successive Republican sex scandals – and on a national level, most of the recent sex scandals have been Republican – are hurting the Republican Party. Many conservative evangelicals wonder whether the party tolerates, sanctions and even and covers up the sinful behavior of its members in order to win their votes. The National Republican Senatorial Committee now has another seat – potentially – to defend. The 2008 Republican presidential candidates now have another curveball to dodge.
Just as it’s implausible to argue that the scandals somehow exemplify the Republican ethos – a logical absurdity – it’s equally as implausible to argue that they don’t matter at all, and cumulatively, they don’t stand in the public mind as examples of a party torn away from its moorings.
August 27, 2007
The Craig Story, Day Two
Keeping the blog light this week may prove difficult, alas, but one can try.
The developments as of midnight:
Item -- Sen. Larry Craig steps down as an honorary co-chair of Mitt Romney's presidential campaign. Craig volunteered to relinquish the title so as not to distract the presidential campaign.
Item -- It's August; Craig's arrest will indeed distract the presidential campaign through Labor Day. Look for every candidate to be asked about Craig today and virtually every candidate to decline to say anything.
Item -- The pressure on Craig to retire at the end of his term increases.
Item -- The Outer -- Mike Rogers -- told you so. He will almost certainly appear on television today.
"On Aug. 8, the day he pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct in the Minnesota court, Craig appeared via satellite at a ceremony that took place in Idaho in which former Idaho federal Judge Randy Smith was invested into his new position as a judge on the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals."
Item -- Questions, actually. Who gave Roll Call the story? Surely the publication does not randomly make beat calls to Hennepin Co. court clerks.... why did the story come out on a Monday? Why didn't any local Minneapolis/St. Paul police reporter get wind of the arrest of the a U.S. senator?
Sen. Larry Craig's Statement
One must never convict, in the jury of public opinion, before one pleads guilty.. and, apparently, even after:
- Idaho Senator Larry Craig made the following statement in response to the Roll Call story this afternoon:
"At the time of this incident, I complained to the police that they were misconstruing my actions. I was not involved in any inappropriate conduct.
"I should have had the advice of counsel in resolving this matter. In hindsight, I should not have pled guilty. I was trying to handle this matter myself quickly and expeditiously."
Sen. Larry Craig's "Lewd" Conduct In A Men's Bathroom
CRAIG ARRESTED, PLEADS GUILTY FOLLOWING INCIDENT IN AIRPORT RESTROOM Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) was arrested in June at a Minnesota airport by a plainclothes police officer investigating lewd conduct complaints in a men's public restroom, according to an arrest report obtained by Roll Call Monday afternoon.
A spokesman for Craig described the incident as a “he said/he said misunderstanding,” and said the office would release a fuller statement later Monday afternoon.
After he was arrested, Craig, who is married, was taken to the Airport Police Operations Center to be interviewed about the lewd conduct incident, according to the police report. At one point during the interview, Craig handed the plainclothes sergeant who arrested him a business card that identified him as a U.S. Senator and said, “What do you think about that?” the report states.
....
Craig stated “that he has a wide stance when going to the bathroom and that his foot may have touched mine,” the report states. Craig also told the arresting officer that he reached down with his right hand to pick up a piece of paper that was on the floor.
“It should be noted that there was not a piece of paper on the bathroom floor, nor did Craig pick up a piece of paper,” the arresting officer said in the report.
Mr. Craig is up for re-election this year. Gov. Butch Otter (R) would appoint a replacement if, for some reason, Craig steps down.
Needless to say, there will be a lot more to this story. Craig has been a target of the Dem activist who outed several gay Republicans, Mike Rogers.
Edwards Rises Again. And Again.
Everytime someone declares John Edwards dead, he rises again. His Fighting for One America tour culiminated in a 1,000-person rally last night in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. (Those are Obama numbers! In New Hampshire! Where Edwards Isn't Supposed To Be Strong!)
Here's an emotional moment from the event:
To Obama, Love From Havana
As sent by a reader: some love from the Castro propaganda machine (if he's still alive) for Sen. Barack Obama.
The article appeared in the publication Granma this Sunday. It refers to Obama's proposal to drawn down punitive sanctions against the island country.
This reader, who is not sympathetic to Obama, provided a full translation, which, because I cannot verify the word-for-word renderings, I've pasted after the jump.
The Politico's Ben Smith has news of the International Association of Fire Fighters' impending endorsement of Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT)
That means the Firefighters, the first union to endorse Sen. John Kerry in 2004, won't endorse Hillary Clinton or Bill Richardson, two reliable allies.
Dodd, meanwhile, gets a major boost, particularly in New Hampshire, where the Firefighters union takes politics seriously and provides serious help to its endorsed candidate on primary day.
Why Dodd? No official word yet, but it's probably because the IAFF could not ignore his long Senate history of providing tangible political and material benefits to its members.
What if other unions are forced to choose between Dodd and Joe Biden on the one hand, and the top tier candidates (Clinton, Obama, Edwards) on the other? On record alone, it's hard to give the latter group the nod.
So we may be in for more Dodd endorsements....
A Week of Light Posting
I'll be posting sporadically this week in order to focus on some longer-term projects.
Change In Thompson Press Team Signals Power Of New Campaign Manager
The departure of Linda Rozett suggests that Bill Lacy, who managed Thompson's campaign for the Senate in 1994, is firmly in charge of his testing-the-waters committee-cum-presidential campaign.
Rozett, a veteran Washington hand, had no campaign experience, but she was originally hired on the recommendation of Jeri Kehn Thompson, the wife of the candidate. Rozett spent years as a senior executive at the Chamber of Commerce.
In a letter Lacy sent to campaign staffers this morning, he writes that while Rozett "is a talented, professional and gracious lady who will be missed," he felt it "critical to have a communications point person with significant campaign experience" in the "limited amount of time we have left."
"I will have to make a lot of tough decisions to make our venture successful, and this was one of them," Lacy writes.
Thompson is likely to announce his presidential bid on September 4 from Nashville.
Fred Thompson's Communications Director Is Out
Word from Republicans close to the Fred Thompson committee is that campaign manager designee Bill Lacy has asked communications director Linda Rozett to leave.
More in a moment...
August 24, 2007
Just Asking
If troops begin to redeploy by year's end, how will the internal Democratic debate about Iraq change? And who benefits?
The Atlantic's Boldest
Because the healthy lads and ladies who work for the New York City's Department of Corrections have acquired the moniker of New York's Boldest, this is the weekly corrections column.
It's been a while since I wrote a corrections post. That's not because I haven't made errors... just because I haven't had the time to compile all of them. This week I:
1. Referred to Rep. Bart Stupak as Rep. Bart "Starpark."
2. Reasoned that Michigan had 31 counties. It has way more.
3. Failed to check my phone messages, thereby depriving the Florida Democratic Party of a chance to respond to a post about their delegate situation with the DNC.
4. Stole CNN video of Barack Obama's three-pointer.
5. Failed to mention that John Brabender's entire firm, BrabenderCox, will be assisting Rudy Giuliani.
6. Failed to appropriately credit NBC News's Mark Murray for pointing me to John Edwards's use of the "Lincoln bedroom" accusation against Sen. Clinton.
7. Forgot, twice, to put the "ex" before Mitt Romney's gubernatorial title.
In this case, it's that the news producers and writers at Fox News don't seem very enamoured with Fred Thompson. It's not Carl Cameron -- his reports about Republican candidates are fair and compelling -- it's in the way the network selects its stories, the language that its anchors use, and even in the way producers put together their stories.
Wonder whether Fox News veteran Jim Mills, Thompson's press secretary, agrees.
Florida Dems Threaten DNC -- War Escalates
A full-scale war has erupted between the Democratic National Committee and the Florida Democratic Party (FDP). The proximate cause is the DNC's insistence that the FDP follow its primary calendar rules, but this dispute is about more than the 2008 primaries. It's also about party resources and even about whether Florida will be a competitive state in the 2008 general election.
Today, Sen. Bill Nelson, who rarely wades into these internecine debates, fired a shot in the DNC's direction. He co-signed a letter to DNC chairman Howard Dean threatening to ask the government to decide whether the DNC's decision amounts to a violation of voting rights rules. Within the Democratic Party, that's a really aggressive charge to make.
"If the Democratic national committee sanctions Florida, then some of us on the Florida congressional delegation may ask an appropriate legal venue can determine whether a political party's rules supercede a person's right to vote and have that vote count," Nelson said on a conference call this morning. "We're going to fight to have Florida Democrats' votes counted."
Nelson implicitly compared the DNC's actions to the Democrats' version of what transpired in Florida, circa 2000. He called ironic the DNC's launch two weeks ago of a national voter protection program.
DNC officials privately dismiss the charges as absurd. They say they gave the state party numerous options to comply with its rules; the state party claims that the DNC's alternatives -- including a Feb. 9 caucus -- were -- absurd.
Some Florida Democrats say they feel bullied by the national party and believe that the national party has written off the idea that Florida would be a swing state in the 2008 general election. The state party was in debt when chair Karen Thurman took over. Thanks to an infusion of resources from the DNC and Thurman's own efforts, the party now functions.
But it's still a shade of the Republican Party operation in the state. Thurman and other Florida Democrats worry that the DNC will further penalize the state and that the lack of attention will demoralize activists and major state party donors.
Privately, Florida Democrats concede that Democrats also voted to move the primary to Jan. 29 -- but Florida Republicans smartly attached it to a bill requiring voter-verified paper trails for voting machines. The Dems blame (or credit) the smart strategy of GOP House speaker Marco Rubio, an extremely ambitious pol who has gubernatorial (and perhaps) presidential aspirations one day.
The DNC's rules and bylaws committee meets in Washington tomorrow. Democratic officials wonder why Florida complains so harshly today when the penalties the DNC could impose were clear to the party for months.
A Nod In Karl Rove's Direction
It would be interesting to know precisely why Sen. Clinton believes a new terrorist attack would help Republicans. Does she endorse the "Morality Salience" theory?
"It's a horrible prospect to ask yourself, 'What if? What if?' But if certain things happen between now and the election, particularly with respect to terrorism, that will automatically give the Republicans an advantage again, no matter how badly they have mishandled it, no matter how much more dangerous they have made the world," Clinton told supporters in Concord.
"So I think I'm the best of the Democrats to deal with that," she added.
The Press Can't Decide About Romney's Health Care Plan
Romney favors national health care modeled on Massachusetts plan, Glen Johnson, AP
Romney Won't Adapt Mass. Plan, Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post
Romney's Federal Prescription, Mary Jacoby and Sarah Lueck, Wall Street Journal
Romney to Pitch a State-by-State Health Insurance Plan, Michael Luo, NY Times
Romney to detail his healthcare Rx, Lisa Wangsness, Boston Globe
Obama And The Black Vote
It's taken a few days to find the time to crunch these numbers, but it appears as if Barack Obama's political boasts of earlier this week won't amount to much change in the electorate, even if he achieves his goals.Obama said:
"I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30 percent around the country, minimum."
Obama noted that in Mississippi, blacks make up more than a third of the state's population, but make up a smaller share of the electorate.
"If we just got African-Americans in Mississippi to vote their percentage of the population, Mississippi is suddenly a Democratic state," Obama said. He said Georgia would also turn Democratic and South Carolina would be in play.
According to a back-of-the-envelope calculation by this non-math major, if black voters voted their percentage of the population, Democrats would still be about 170,000 votes short of the regular Republican general election margin, all other factors held constant.
Same thing in Georgia: the Dems would be 325K votes short and in South Carolina -- well, the Dem tally would decline because African Americans vote more than their percentage of the population would indicate.
So -- the first column shows the Bush margin over Kerry in '04. The second shows the total number of Democratic voters if black voters voted their percentage and all voted Democratic. The third figure is the difference of the first minus the second -- the GOP margin over the Democratic candidate under these conditions...all other things being equal.
BUSH MARGIN CHANGE IF PERCENT GOP WITH CHANGE
Georgia 548K 223K 324K
Mississ. 226K 53K 173K
S.C: 276K -16.9K 293K
Clinton Is Challenged on The Surge, And On The Lincoln Bedroom
Sen. Hillary Clinton faced criticism from a leading Democratic rival today and a leading Republican. Battered by the left about her status as a change agent, battered by the right about the war.
Sen. John Edwards, in a campaign theme speech about the culture of Washington, became the first Democrat to refer to the correlation between major Democratic fundraisers circa 1995 and their subsequent overnight stays in the Lincoln Bedroom of the White House.
The choice for our party could not be more clear. We cannot replace a group of corporate Republicans with a group of corporate Democrats, just swapping the Washington insiders of one party for the Washington insiders of the other.
The American people deserve to know that their Presidency is not for sale, the Lincoln Bedroom is not for rent, and lobbyist money can no longer influence policy in the House or the Senate.
It’s time to end the game. It’s time to tell the big corporations and the lobbyists who have been running things for too long that their time is over. It’s time to challenge politicians to put the American people’s interests ahead of their own calculated political interests, to look the lobbyists in the eye and just say no.
Note: Rick Lazio used a version of this critique -- it didn't work. Democrats do not believe that Hillary Clinton is corrupt.
Sen. John McCain today accuses Clinton of changing her opinion about the success of the "surge" in Iraq.
"On Monday, Senator Clinton told an audience at the Veterans of Foreign Wars that the surge of troops in Iraq was 'working.' Now, after taking heat from anti-war activists and her primary opponents, Senator Clinton says the surge 'has failed' and that we should 'begin the immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops.'
"The fact that the New York senator can reverse her position on an issue of grave importance to our national security in a few days sends the wrong signal to our enemies in Iraq and our own troops on the ground. We must continue to support General Petraeus and the new counterinsurgency campaign to give us the best chance to succeed. Following the path to begin an 'immediate withdrawal' would be a grave mistake."
Not to defend Clinton here, but there doesn't seem to be a conflict. The goal of the surge, as widely stated by the Bush Administration, was to produce a climate where political reconcilliation was more feasible. Clinton believes that the military has done its job marvelously and has rendered safe many neighborhoods where violence used to be a constant presence. But it's perfectly legitimate to simultaneously look at the political situation in Iraq and conclude that the surge isn't working.
Giuliani's Media Team Is Full Of Conservative Heavyweights
The stalwart conservatives who populate ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's media team are a telling indication that a Giuliani nomination looks more likely -- and is more acceptable -- to the Republican Party elite than ever before.
When Giuliani entered the race in March, it's probably safe to assume that not a single member of his team would have felt comfortable joining the campaign of a pro-choice, pro-gay rights cultural liberal from New York City.
But priorities have shifted. Giuliani has withstood a fairly intense round of criticism. He is messaging on national security and economic growth. John McCain's prospects have fallen. Fred Thompson is a question mark.
From the standpoint of these media company's bottom lines, there is now little risk in being associated with the Giuliani brand -- unless, of course, someone else, like Mitt Romney wins the nomination and is in a mood to punish. (Romney doesn't usually bear grudges.)
Heath Thompson will serve as the lead creative consultant. He was regional political during the Bush-Cheney re-election campaign and ran the Bush effort in South Carolina in 2000. He's now a partner with Scott Howell and Co. He will double as a lead Giuliani strategist in South Carolina. His former partner in SC, Terry Sullivan, is running Romney's campaign there.
Scott Howell's firm has Bush-Cheney campaign experience and is the media consultant of record for many in-cycle incumbents throughout the south and midwest. It was his firm, in 2006, that produced the controversial television ad about Harold Ford, Jr's dating life. Howell also worked for George Allen in '06. He's handling media duties for Norm Coleman's re-election in Minnesota.
Chris Mottola's former clients have included Sen. Arlen Specter and ex-NYC governor George Pataki. He's been a close adviser to Pataki for years.
John Brabender was chief consultant to Rick Santorum in his 2006 Senate race and has worked for just about every major conservative politician in the northeast. His firm is BrabenderCox, about which my colleague Josh Green wrote last year.
Giuliani's media buyer will be Patti Heck of Crossroads Media.
Romney's Non Flip-Flop On Abortion
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney said this week that as president he would allow individual states to keep abortion legal, two weeks after telling a national television audience that he supports a constitutional amendment to ban the procedure nationwide.
Mitt Romney is simply struggling to explain the Republican Party's conventional pro-life position. Which is: overturn Roe v. Wade. And then, slowly build up public support for a constitutional amendment banning abortions. ETA: 30 years or more.
This is not a flip-flop.
The reason why Romney is struggling to explain the complicated two-step is that he is relatively new to the dance. Pro-life activists who have been in the trenches for years are very comfortable with the nuance and subtlely of their beliefs and know how to translate them into morsels for the media's consumption. This measured, incremental approach -- relatively new to the movement -- has been successful in many ways.
Assuming that Romney's story of a late-in-life pro-life conversion is true -- and that's a reasonable assumption absent evidence to the contrary -- it's not surprising that he has trouble articulating, in soundbite form, what he believes -- especially to a media that's been conditioned to listen for nuance.
It's also true that everything Mitt Romney says about abortion will be scrutinized to see whether it comports with what he said last week, two months ago, three months ago. His advisers accept that, frustrating as it may be.
It's also true (so many truths) that a media report about Romney's alleged flip-flopping on abortion is dangerous. No matter what Republican campaigns and strategists say, if the media labels some-thing a flip-flop, it becomes, to many voters, a flip-flop -- even if, at the end of the day, before God himself, it isn't. That's unfair, in the scheme of things, but it's one of the reasons why the press remains powerful. Compare: if the media calls something Barack Obama says a "gaffe," it becomes a gaffe until the voters are convinced otherwise -- even if it wasn't a real, genuine gaffe in the first place.
Michigan Primary Update
The bill to set the Michigan primary for Jan. 15 now faces the Democrat-controlled House.
It's likely that the House will run the bill next week... with most Democrats voting no. The key: how many vote yes.
Edwards's Reset
It's unusual for a campaign to reset its message a week before the Labor Day weekend, but then again, there does seem to be a whole new set of physical laws governing politics.
Here's what seems to be the key paragraph in John Edwards's speech today:
But small thinking and outdated answers aren’t the only problems with a vision for the future that is rooted in nostalgia. The trouble with nostalgia is that you tend to remember what you liked and forget what you didn’t. It’s not just that the answers of the past aren’t up to the job today, it’s that the system that produced them was corrupt – and still is. It’s controlled by big corporations, the lobbyists they hire to protect their bottom line and the politicians who curry their favor and carry their water. And it’s perpetuated by a media that too often fawns over the establishment, but fails to seriously cover the challenges we face or the solutions being proposed. This is the game of American politics and in this game, the interests of regular Americans don’t stand a chance.
Real change starts with being honest – the system in Washington is rigged and our government is broken. It’s rigged by greedy corporate powers to protect corporate profits. It’s rigged by the very wealthy to ensure they become even wealthier. At the end of the day, it’s rigged by all those who benefit from the established order of things. For them, more of the same means more money and more power. They’ll do anything they can to keep things just the way they are – not for the country, but for themselves.
When was the last time a major presidential candidate delivered such a singularly populist speech?
August 22, 2007
It Ain't Easy Being Green
The League of Conservation Voters is the latest interest group to spend money on television ads in Iowa.
They're kind of cute. Bill Hillsman, the pioneering admaker, edited the ads to fit the tagline that "Green is the new Red, White and Blue." The musical score is a version of Kermit The Frog's "It Ain't Easy Being Green."
"We are pushing to reframe this as more than just a domestic environmental problem -- but rather a global security issue -- the resolution of which will largely reside on the shoulders of our next president," an LCV spokesman says.
By the way: this is the first television ad that will remind Iowa Republicans that Mitt Romney is Mormon.
Inside The Michigan Democratic Debate About The Primary
As mentioned above, the Michigan State Senate just passed a bill setting the primary date at Jan. 15, and after some conference tinkering, it's headed to the desk of the governor, who'll sign it.
Some Democrats are protesting. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) sent a letter to Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Michigan Democratic Party chairman Mark Brewer urging them to keep the party's traditional caucus, which the state party pays for. A state-run primary would cost taxpayers $12M, Stupak writes, and besides, Michigan's county political parties are already preparing for the caucuses.
Privately, Brewer may be sympathetic to Stupak's argument. Party-run caucuses -- or "Firehouse primaries," as they're called, are enormously beneficial to the state party because they serve as a dress rehearsal for election day get-out-the-vote activities and provide an easy way for the party to enhance its voter lists. They're also easy to control -- and party interest groups, like Michigan's extremely powerful United Auto Workers union, tend to exert an outsized influence on the outcome. It comes as no surprise that UAW, a union which is said to be on the verge of endorsing Sen. John Edwards, also opposes a state-run primary. (The State Dems, per published reports, are waiting to see what the bill says before they react. The State Republicans are on board with Granholm and the legislature.)
On the other side of this equation is Gov. Granholm, who Edwards factions in the state believe is acting at the beheast of Sen. Hillary Clinton. The theory is that it would be much easier for Clinton to win a primary beauty contest than a caucus, which would require organization -- read: labor, read: the UAW. (Actually, labor power in Michigan is concentrated in the UAW and in the National Education Association, which probably won't endorse.)
Democratic heavy hitters are getting involved. Later today, Rev. Al Sharpton intends to complain about the photo identification required of all potential state primary voters; the caucus requirements are less onerous, in his view.
The upshot is that Michigan risks losing all of its delegates if it holds a pre-Feb. 5 primary. As with Florida, there'd be much less of an incentive for Sen. Barack Obama to compete for the state's zero or few delegates.
If Michigan holds a primary on Jan. 15, then it stands to reason that New Hampshire's Secretary of State, Bill Gardner, would schedule the state's primary for no late than Jan. 8. Which means, in turn, that Iowa would probably schedule its caucuses for the 5th. Which means, in turn, that confusion reigns until the calendar is set.
Rove's Wrong About Clinton, Gallup Says
The Clinton campaign and rivals are debating the significance of this Gallup analysis of Karl Rove's attack on Hillary Clinton's allegedly unprecedented unfavorability rating.
First, Gallup concludes that Rove is simply wrong:
A review of Gallup poll data suggests that Hillary Clinton's current high unfavorable ratings are not unprecedented. Other candidates have had similarly high unfavorable ratings at various points in presidential election campaigns in previous years. Two of these candidates -- George W. Bush in 2004 and Bill Clinton in 1992 -- went on to win the election.
Point in favor of Clinton: other Democratic presidential candidates have been as polarizing as she's been (and still won); the 49% unfavorable number is one data point of many; she's been more popular than she is today, which means, of course, that there is room to grow.
Point in favor of not-Clinton: Clinton's relative polarity rating hasn't necessary been tied to an exogenous event; perhaps there's a correlation between the degree to which voters perceive Washington to be polarized and Clinton's own rating. Al Gore's high negatives came at the height of his post-election recount battle; Bill Clinton's high negatives came on the heels of Gennifer Flower's disclosure. And he won the election with 43% of the vote in 1992.
News: State Senate Passes Jan. 15 Primary In Michigan
The Michigan State Senate just passed a bill establishing a joint presidential primary on Jan. 15.
All the chambers' Republicans voted yes; all the chambers' Democrats voted no.
Many Democrats objected on technical grounds.
The bill will now have to be reconciled with a version passed by the state house of representatives.
Gov. Jennifer Granholm is eager to sign the bill.
More analysis, later.
First: Romney's Health Care Policy Advisory List
Here's a first look at Mitt Romney's health care policy advisory council. It's a mix of experienced legislators, regulators and policy experts -- and several close aides who helped Romney compose and execute his pioneering, layered health insurance reforms in Massachusetts.
The co-chairs of Romney's council of advisers are Rep. Tom Price, an Atlanta surgeon, and Tim Murphy, Romney's health and human services secretary in Massachusetts and how a private consultant.
Other members include:
Rep. Phil Gingrey, an OBGYN.
Hoover institute health care guru John Cogan, a conservative domestic policy expert with an extensive pedigree.
Ex Bush admin. CEA chair Glenn Hubbard, now Dean of the Columbia Business School.
Cindy Gillespie, a close Romney aide who was key to the legislative success of the Massachusetts plan.
On Friday, Romney will use an address before the American Medical Association in Florida to formally outline his health care plan. Romney is expected to argue that the federal government's role ought to be give states maximum latitude to tailor health care plans -- and that only free-market principles can satisfy the goal of ensuring access to affordable, portable and quality private health insurance. One source says Romney will use Powerpoint to illustrate his contentions.
Romney's rivals often suggest that he shies away from bragging about his Massachusetts plan, which he signed as a proud Ted Kennedy looked on; that he simplifies it; that he downplays the government's role in paying for much of it. Maybe. Romney doesn't always talk about health care unprompted, but when he's asked, he describes his plan as one of his biggest accomplishments. (He includes a caveat that the state legislature changed the plan Romney initially signed.)
The success of the plan -- or its failure -- will not really be known until the height of the primary season. Earlier this summer, the plan's requirement that most all citizens purchase insurance kicked in. So far, so good. And Romney's speech on Friday signals he's more than willing to debate its merits -- provided that he makes sure his audience knows that under a Romney presidency, other states could come up with very different mechanisms to reach Romney's stated goals.
A Giuliani Fundraising Appeal: Only I Can Beat Hillary
Rudy Giuliani's campaign will release an appeal today penned by campaign manager Michael DuHaime that for the first time, not only calls him the Only One Who Can Beat The Democrats, but proceeds to lay out just how Giuliani differs from the dreaded Dems.
The letter refers to Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama -- DuHaime tries to be ecumenical -- but then he slips at the end and writes that "your contributions" would be key in "helping Rudy go the distance and beat Hillary Clinton next November."
It draws a subtle contrast with Giuliani's main rival for the nomination, Mitt Romney, by portraying the primary campaign as a 50-state endeavor, rather than an IA/NH/SC-centric romp. And, obviously, it poses the question: Mitt, can YOU beat Hillary?
If a Democrat wins in 2008, Americans will have a President in the White House where the Terrorists' War on Us is mocked as simply a bumper sticker, taxes are increased and the government runs your health care. In contrast, a Rudy Giuliani administration will keep us on Offense in the Terrorists' War on Us, end illegal immigration and cut spending-- all promises based upon Rudy’s 12 Commitments to the American People. Voters know that Rudy is the candidate with the vision, the know-how and the proven results to move America forward and make it a better place for all of us.
On Saturday, the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws committee (RBC) will meet to formally consider the delegate selection plans submitted by state parties.
All signs suggest that the DNC will formally sanction Florida Democratic Party for .submitting a plan that violates DNC rules. The Florida Democratic Party plans to hold its delegate-selection contest on Jan. 29, seven days before the party's official window opens.
So what will happen? First, the RBC will immediately take away all of Florida's so-called "Superdelegates" -- spots reserved for the members of the Democratic National Committee and members of Congress. Then, the RBC will reduce the remaining delegate total by at least half. (The RBC could reduce the delegate total by 100%, which would also have the weird effect of removing the penalties on candidates who decide to compete there.)
Florida has thirty days from formal receipt of the RBC’s action .to resubmit its plan to cure its defects. Over the past several weeks, DNC officials have discussed several alternatives with Florida, ranging from a party-run caucus to a vote-by-mail primary. The state has rejected them all. Going early is its priority.
Florida Democrats act as if they're not worried about the DNC penalty. They believe that the eventual nominee will restore its delegation to full strength as the convention begins. They therefore conclude that presidential candidates will contest the state as if the DNC had done nothing.
But here's why the DNC's penalty actually has some teeth. If Florida had no delegates to compete for, presidential campaigns have two choices about competing in a penalized Florida. They can spend money to explain why they aren’t spending money to just win a beauty contest. . Or they can spend money to try and actually win what is just a beauty contest.. The former option is much cheaper than the latter option.
And delegates, to the campaigns, matter more in January than they do in July. The Democratic campaigns don't assume that the convention will be brokered; they assume that the nominee will be known by the middle of February. The only metric available to really assess the strength(s) of the candidates at that point is their total number of delegates.
The media could well decide to cover Florida as a "real" primary, but here's a further complication. Two presidential campaigns -- Sen. Barack Obama's and Sen. John Edwards -- are close to concluding that they shouldn’t compete in Florida if Florida's delegate selection process doesn't matter. Publicly, these campaigns say they hope Florida resolves its dispute with the DNC. Privately, they admit that if Florida has few or no delegates, they are unlikely to compete. That means that Hillary Clinton will face enormous expectations to win the state solidly. Unless she decides to scale down her activities in the state, too.
So, if the state party is only concerned about being seated at the convention, then the RBC's penalty doesn't matter.
But if the state wants to play a role in determining the nominee, then the RBC’s penalty matters a lot. The two interests are in conflict.
August 21, 2007
Giuliani Responds To Fred Thompson
From communications director Katie Levinson:
"Those who live in New York in the real world - not on TV - know that Rudy Giuliani's record of making the city safe for families speaks for itself. No amount of political theater will change that."
Fred Takes On Rudy On Guns
Many Republicans believe that Rudy Giuliani's record on gun rights will be as tough a gauntlet to cross as his cultural liberalism. Fred Thompson seems to agree.
When I was working in television, I spent quite a bit of time in New York City. There are lots of things about the place I like, but New York gun laws don’t fall in that category.
Anybody who knows me knows I’ve always cared deeply about the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms. So I’ve always felt sort of relieved when I flew back home to where that particular civil liberty gets as much respect as the rest of the Bill of Rights.
Unfortunately, New York is trying, again, to force its ways on the rest of us, this time through the courts. First, they went after U.S. gun manufacturers, seeking through a lawsuit not only money but injunctive control over the entire industry. An act of congress in 2005 blocked, but did not end, that effort.
Now, the same activist federal judge from Brooklyn who provided Mayor Giuliani’s administration with the legal ruling it sought to sue gun makers, has done it again. Last week, he created a bizarre justification to allow New York City to sue out-of-state gun stores that sold guns that somehow ended up in criminal hands in the Big Apple.
The lawsuit has been a lesson in out-of-control government from the get-go. Mayor Bloomberg sent private investigators to make “straw” purchases – illegally buying guns for somebody else. According to the ATF, NY’s illegal “stings” interfered with ongoing investigations of real gun traffickers.
Obviously, New York won’t get much cash out of the few dozen shops being sued in Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Virginia; so the purpose can only be political. Some of those sued have already buckled under the financial strain of legal defense and agreed to live by New York City rules.
Ironically, all of this comes at a time of historically low violent crime rates and historically high gun ownership rates nationally. States where it is legal to carry guns are also at an all-time high, up to 40 from 10 in 1987 by NRA reckoning.
While this attack by New York City on the Second Amendment reinforces the importance of appointing judges who apply the law as written, there is another important legal point. Federalism, though usually seen as a protection of the states from the federal government, actually grew out of the need to protect states from other states that interfered in free commerce beyond their borders – as New York is doing today. In this case, we need Federalism to protect states from a big bully in New York City.
You'd Almost Forget Hillary Clinton Was A Sitting U.S. Senator
But she hasn't forgotten...
SENATOR CLINTON ANNOUNCES FEMA MEETING TO DISCUSS LINGERING CONCERNS FROM OCTOBER SNOWSTORM
Clinton Continues To Call For FEMA Action To Remove Tree Stumps In Western New York
Also Pushes FEMA To Address Reimbursement Issues For Township Of North Tonawanda
The Fear Factor: Why Bush Won?
Of all the theories constructed to explain why President Bush won re-election in 2004, perhaps the most provocative is what John Judis, in a New Republic essay this week, gives a close treatment. The theory, propounded by a trio of academics, is that terrorism -- the ultimate existential threat made real -- that is, when events make individuals realize they could and will die -- changes how people make political decisions. Specifically, fearing death makes voters more willing to rally around their flag, exclude others, zero out internal contradictions, and seek the protection of leaders who exude strength.
There is actual experimental evidence to support this story.
Their experiments showed that the mere thought of one's mortality can trigger a range of emotions--from disdain for other races, religions, and nations, to a preference for charismatic over pragmatic leaders, to a heightened attraction to traditional mores.
This is a little more subtle that the popular sense that Americans were afraid after 9/11, so they turned inward and preferred the known (Bush) to the unknown (Kerry); the macho (Bush) to the meandering (Kerry), etc.
The in-party -- Republican political scientists, pundits and strategists often answer this most basic question of politics -- Why did President Bush win in 2004? -- with a tautology. "Because voters preferred his policies." The assumption: Bush good, Kerry bad, and that's that.
The out-party -- the Democratic political scientists, pundits and strategists -- answer the same question with a bewildering mix of often clashing theories. The Democrats weren't populist enough. They didn't frame the issues correctly. Bush stole the election. The Bush team manipulated public opinion. The Bush team scared the bejesus out of ordinary folks. Kerry was a poor candidate. Etc.
Sen. Barack Obama, commenting this morning on the surge and whether the signs of military successes warrant a reconsideration of his approach:
I didn't see the actual transcript of Sen. Clinton's speech, but my assessment is that if we put additional 30,000 of our outstanding troops into Baghdad that that's going to quell some of the violence in the short term. I don't think that there's any doubt that as long as U.S. troops are present that they are going to be doing outstanding work. It doesn't change the underlying assessment that there's not a military solution to the situation in Iraq. The underlying political dynamic has not changed. ... Until we begin a phased withdrawal, we're not going to get the kind of serious talks within Iraq and the region that are required.
At another stop, in Atlantic, Michelle said she travels with her husband in part "to model what it means to have family values," adding "if you can't run your own house, you can't run the White House." She didn't elaborate, but it could be interpreted as a swipe at the Clintons.
Michelle Obama was probably referring to the hard choices she and Sen. Obama have had to make about their work/family balance -- that's a recurring theme of her stump speech.
But Matt Drudge has other designs, and you can bet that the cable news networks will follow.
Romney And Sanctuary Cities
In a new, 60-second radio ad airing in New Hampshire and Iowa, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney once again tries to use "Sanctuary Cities" as a way of distinguishing himself from Rudy Giuliani.
Romney hasn't yet accused Giuliani of supporting amnesty; the very concept of Sanctuary Cities implies an amnesty from the law.
The Republican candidates give the least attention to the arguably the most difficult part of the immigration question: what they'd do with those illegal immigrants who haven't committed additional crimes? Deport them? Imprison them? "Regularize them?"
Both Giuliani and Romney insist they oppose amnesty, but because immigration hardliners have defined amnesty so broadly, it's hard to see how any regularization or normalization proposal would pass muster with talk radio hosts and the Tancredo wing of the party.
Here's what Romney has said:
Speaking on washingtonpost.com's video interview program 'PostTalk,' Romney said he had no desire to 'round them up as one big group' and try to send illegal immigrants back to their native countries. Instead, he said the idea is 'to take people who are here today and working here and replace them gradually and humanely with our own citizens as well as with legal immigrants who come in to take their place
In the back of their minds, some (not all) Giuliani sympathizers believe that Romney is making a coded appeal to the anti-elitist bent of the Republican base. "Newark, San Francisco and New York City," in this view, are proxies for urban disorder and cultural permissiveness.
Script For "Exceptional" (Radio:60):
ANNOUNCER: "Immigration laws don't work if they're ignored.
"That's the problem with cities like Newark, San Francisco and New York City that adopt sanctuary policies.
"Sanctuary cities become magnets that encourage illegal immigration and undermine secure borders.
"As Governor, Mitt Romney didn't wait on Washington. He acted to make our immigration laws work.
"Mitt Romney is the exceptional Governor who took a stand so State Police could enforce federal immigration laws.
"Mitt Romney said 'No' to drivers' licenses for those here illegally.
"Mitt Romney insisted on teaching our kids in English.
"And as President, Mitt Romney will cut back federal funds to cities that provide sanctuary to illegal immigrants."
GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY: "Legal immigration is great. But illegal immigration, that we've got to end. And amnesty is not the way to do it."
ANNOUNCER: "Mitt Romney – an exceptional leader for exceptional new challenges."
GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY: "I'm Mitt Romney and I approved this message."
ANNOUNCER: "Paid for by Romney for President, MittRomney.com."
Evergreen's New Branch
A new face on the Hillary Clinton road show: Jay Carson, currently communications director to Bill Clinton, will become the Clinton campaign's traveling press secretary. Carson is the kind of press aide you read about in those old Boys-On-The-Bus type books; he is extremely aggressive, always accessible, and one of those guys you'd pick for a trench fight. In other words: he will be a perfect fit.
Would Obama Meet With Castro?
In the Miami Herald today, Sen. Barack Obama sketches his Cuba policy and outlines his plans for diplomacy. Remember that Obama has said he'd meet with Fidel Castro and other dictators without preconditions -- preconditions being Bush-Cheney-lite-esque -- and he hasn't backed down in the face of criticism.
Accordingly, I will use aggressive and principled diplomacy to send an important message: If a post-Fidel government begins opening Cuba to democratic change, the United States (the president working with Congress) is prepared to take steps to normalize relations and ease the embargo that has governed relations between our countries for the last five decades
The contours of Obama's preconditionless diplomatic posture are becoming clear. "Without preconditions" does not mean without prior assumptions or bargaining positions; it does not mean a tabula rasa. He does not expect Castro to live much longer, and he probably would not meet with Castro in the event that the Old Man managed to survive for a few more years.
Is this an injudicious reading of Obama's words? He does write, earlier on:
But as we reach out in some ways now, it makes strategic sense to hold on to important inducements we can use in dealing with a post-Fidel government, for it is an unfortunate fact that his departure by no means guarantees the arrival of freedom on the island.
The Club For Growth On Romney: Mixed Messages
The Club for Growth's fifth presidential white paper is out, and the victim/beneficiary today is ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney.
“Governor Romney’s economic record contains a mixture of pro-growth accomplishments and some troublesome positions that beg to be explained,” said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. “While his record on taxes, spending, and entitlement reform is flawed, it is, on balance, encouraging, especially given the liberal Massachusetts Legislature. His record on trade, school choice, regulations and tort reform all indicate a strong respect for the power of market solutions. At the same time, Governor Romney’s history is marked by statements at odds with his gubernatorial record and his campaign rhetoric.”
Romney’s strident opposition to the flat tax; his refusal to endorse the Bush tax cuts in 2003; his support for various minor tax hikes; and his once-radically bad views on campaign finance reform all cast some doubts on the extent and durability of his commitment to limited-government, pro-growth policies. His landmark steps in the healthcare arena also exhibit a mixture of desirable pro-free market efforts combined with a regrettable willingness to accept, if not embrace, a massive new regulatory regime.
The Harkin Steak Fry
Last year, Sen. Barack Obama rocked Tom Harkin's annual Steak Fry fundraiser in Indianaola, as 3,000+ Iowans screamed, cheered, cried and begged for him to run for president. The year before, Bill Clinton was the guest.
So a topic of speculation has been who Harkin would get to host this year's extravaganza -- his 30th. All of the party superstars are running for president. It wouldn't be fair to invite just one of them.
So...
This year our special guests include Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Barack Obama, Senator John Edwards, Senator Joe Biden, Senator Chris Dodd, and Governor Bill Richardson
Well, there you go. September 16 will be the first major post Labor Day cattle call for Democrats. But wait -- No Kucinich? No Gravel?
August 20, 2007
Don't Panic: Megan McArdle Is Here!
Never again will I have to bluff my way through an economics post. Megan McArdle, an economist, writer, blogger and public intellectual, has joined our stable of Atlantic voices. And her office is right next to mine, so she will have to live with my astonishingly asinine queries, like "Explain the China currency debate to me again?"
Here's an excerpt from her first post:
Having a nasty market contraction does not mean that your economy automatically goes down the tubes. It particularly does not mean this in a large, diversified, fully developed economy such as ours.
For the time being, Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential campaign has stopped airing its television ads on network affiliates in Iowa and New Hampshire, Republicans who traffic in traffic say.
A rotation of ads is still running on cable television channels in those states. But the total volume will be markedly less noticable to television viewers than in July, when Romney's advertising saturated several Iowa television markets.
Republican media sources say the amount of radio commercial time Romney has bought is unchanged.
"We are still broadcasting ads in early primary states," said Kevin Madden, Romney's spokesman. Madden would not provide specifics. However, a Romney source said the change in traffic is "temporary."
Last week, Romney bought commercial time to thank Iowans who gave him his Ames straw poll victory on Aug. 11.
It's not unusual a campaign to pare down its advertising in the dog days of August. Romney's campaign had acknowledged that they would probably try to save a bit of money between the Ames straw poll on August 11th and Labor Day.
Romney's early advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire, his numerous visits to the states, and the mixed fortunes of his rivals are credited with his strong standing in early state polls. To date, the campaign has spent more than $6M on television and radio ads. Romney's ads have aired on cable in other early states, like South Carolina and Florida.
Team Thompson Update
One more resignation from Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson's germinating campaign team: Burson Snyder, who spent about a month and a half as press secretary, left the committee last Thursday.
That said, today is Jim Mills's first day. The former Fox News producer and Capitol Hill reporter has no on-the-record experience, but he knows the folkways of the Beltway journalism elite, and he is therefore certain to be an asset for Thompson.
Political Book Watch: Mark Penn's "Microtrends"
It might be unfair to Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton's chief strategist, to scour every inch of his new book for insights about the current race or the Clinton family, but consider: if Karl Rove had written a book in 1999 describing 75 demographic trends -- the "small forces behind tomorrow's big changes" -- well, you get the idea.
Penn, the force behind Clinton's 1996 re-election targeting of suburban women, is convinced that voters do make rational choices, and when political scientists are confronted with evidence to the contrary, they just aren't asking the right questions. His worldview is not materialistic; he knows that voters don't always vote their pocket-books; they vote their values and aspirations. His are an attempt to explain why people often make choices that are inexplicable to the naked eye.
Some of the trends he notices, based on a decade's worth of survey research and demographic data crunching, are often illuminating and even fascinating. He's studied working women, in particular, very carefully, noticing that, for example, a huge number of adult women play sports and noticing, that, for example, 57% of journalists are women. The professions of public relations and the law are trending toward the same lopsidedness.
The easy criticism of Penn's methodology (and that of consumer modeling in general) is his reductiveness is arbitrary and that he is the author of the trends that he sees. But Penn is careful not to predict too much about the future, and that's refreshing. Also, many of Penn's microtrends result from the aggregation of largely individual choices -- the choice of women to play sports, the choice of more closeted gays to come out, the decision to form entirely new religions, etc.
Here's what he writes about politics.
## There are 10 million Protestant Hispanics in the U.S. today. 90 percent of them adhere to a variant of Pentecostalism. It was this subgroup of Latinos who helped George W. Bush increase his margin among Hispanics in 2004 -- "the percentage of Bush voters among Hispanic Catholics remained exactly the same." Penn's own surveys suggest that Protestant Latinos are largely values voters; Catholic Latinos are much more likely to respond to economic issues.
## "Every day in this 2008 election season, I hear two voices. First, I hear, "If only X or Y were warmer, and friendler, I would vote for him/her." Second, I hear, "I like the candidates who address the issue. This is a serious election, and we need a president who truly gets our problems and will help solve them." A "funny thing has happened to the American electorate: it's flippe dupside down. America's elite ... have become less interested in America's economic and strategic challenges than they are in the candidate's personalities." The elites say that it's because the lower orders of society don't understand the issues, they decide based on personality, so it's only natural for the elites to follow. (Penn has polling data to back this up.) Turns out, there's a sliding scale. When voters reach a certain income level -- around $100,000 -- a plurality focuses on character and personality. Under $100,000, Penn found that a majority focus on issues.
## It's tempting to read something about Barack Obama's fundraising successes or appeals to elite Democrats in here, but Penn's book was completed well before he wrote these words: "So between the 527-underwriting Mega-Donors and the increasingly powerful Elite Donors [those couples earning more than $300K a year who can easily max out to candidates], we have a new class of givers playing an increasingly important role in politics -- and statistical proof that their heads are nowhere near the voters.'"
## "Contrary to conventional wisdom, there is a massive swing electorate out there, receiving more information from more sources than ever before, and acting on it."
## In '04, Penn estimates that nearly 5M ex-cons were "disenfranchised." The total of numbers of convicts returning to society grows by 650K each year.
## For Kremlinologists out there, Penn makes two (small) digs at Al Gore. One is: "Every day I hear experts say that voters and consumers are misguided scatterbrains....that is why politicians pay consltants to tell them to wear earth toned suits." The other is on Page 221.
There's something about Karl Rove that summons everybody's inner James Jesus Angleton, where every comment is automatically assumed to be part of an elabroate disinformation.
Associates of Rove's say he believes Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. They say he does not believe Barack Obama or John Edwards will be the nominee.
And -- more importantly, If Rove were trying to drive Democrats toward Hillary Clinton, wouldn't he label Clinton an "anti-war liberal" rather than echo the themes that are currently being employed by Clinton's opponents? (i.e., she's too polarizing), etc.
Doesn’t that just create a situation where Clinton is being hit from the left and right at the same time? How does that drive Democrats to her?
As Sen. Obama's aides have pointed out, it probably doesn't hurt Obama's contention that Clinton represents the politics of polarization when Karl Rove calls her out.
So maybe Rove tried to attack John Kerry in 2004 to divert attention from Sen. John Edwards. Did it work? Did any Democrat listen to Rove? Does anyone remember Rove's attacks being a turning point in the Democratic primary race?
Joe Biden's First Ad
Sen. Joe Biden recounts his fourth trip to Iraq, where he climbed into a C-130 and saw a flag-draped coffin. "We must end this war," he says.
Clinton Seeks Low-Dollar Fundraisers
Not content with ceding the title of grassroots fundraising champion to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton's campaign is harvesting for thousands of new smaller donors.
This week, the campaign's direct mail team will ask tens of thousands of Clinton contributors across the country to find ten of their friends who can contribute $10 each to the campaign.
In a letter accompanying the fundraising appeal, Clinton campaign chair Terry McAuliffe says the "10 for 10 Program will showcase just how much support Hillary has across the country[.]
McAullife continues:
During the next stage of the campaign we need to not only continue to build our resources, but also engage and energize the broad base of supporters Hillary has across the country – and we need your help to do it.
The tiny sums involved suggest that the campaign wants to boost the numbers of contributors it can brag about. When Obama's campaign said it had recieved money from 258,000 donors through the end of June, Clinton's campaign was quick to point out that Obama occasionally charged entrance fees for large events, like a thousand person crowd in Minneapolis, and counted the proceeds of the sale of campaign paraphernalia as donations. But they were envious, too: advisers conceded that the breadth of Obama's support made it harder for Clinton to argue that her presidential bid was worth the investment of the party's grassroots.
Through the end of March, Clinton received money from approximately 60,000 contributors. Her tally through the end of June is not known.
Federalism Watch: Thompson Opposes Federal Marriage Amendment
"I think with regard to gay marriage you have a [inaudible] issue. I don't think one state ought to be able to pass a law requiring gay marriage or allowing gay marriage and have another state be required to follow along under full faith and credit. There’s some exceptions, exemptions for that. Hasn’t happened yet, but I think a federal court very well likely will go in that direction. And the constitutional amendment would cure that. I think Roe versus Wade was a bad decision. There were things that are bad law and bad medicine. You don't just get up one day and overturn the entire history of the country with regard major social policies without any action by Congress, without any action by the American people or a constitutional amendment. And that's what happened. Shouldn’t have happened. It ought to be reversed."
I'm afraid CNN story you linked mischaracterized Thompson's comment on gay marriage. They've since altered the story....without noting the change.
For the record, the Thompson camp has officially noted that "Fred Thompson does not support a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage." He supports the rights of States to choose their marriage law for themselves.
The Thompson camp issued this statement:
In an interview with CNN today, former Senator Fred Thompson’s position on constitutional amendments concerning gay marriage was unclear.
Thompson believes that states should be able to adopt their own laws on marriage consistent with the views of their citizens.
He does not believe that one state should be able to impose its marriage laws on other states, or that activist judges should construe the constitution to require that.
If necessary, he would support a constitutional amendment prohibiting states from imposing their laws on marriage on other states.
Fred Thompson does not support a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.
Obama Breakout?
Did yesterday's debate in Iowa feature Obama's breakout performance? The pundit class was very impressed. Normally, Obama's team would shrug off the plaudits, but because the debate was held at 8:00 am local time, most Iowa caucus goers learned about the debate from the newspaper and television news later that day.
August 19, 2007
The Debate: "Iowa Nice"
Iowans are nice, they reward nice candidates and they don't like confrontation.
Chuck Todd's take on this morning's Democratic debate is basically equivalent to mine, so, in an effort to save some paper:
Overall, this is a debate that had "August" written all over it, meaning the candidates decided not to take advantage of opportunities to engage. Instead, at almost every opportunity, the frontrunners took pains to NOT engage even when questions from the moderator tried to create spats. So in the absence of a "moment," it's hard not to declare Clinton the winner of this debate because, like boxing, if the champ doesn't get knocked out, then the champ is still the champ.
This is not to say Obama and Edwards did poorly in this debate. To the contrary, both seemed more presidential than in previous debates but neither seemed comfortable trying to take down the frontrunner. Edwards and Obama took veiled shots at Clinton but in a way that was, well, "Iowa nice."
One glaring missed opportunity for Obama to show contrast with Clinton came, not from a moderator question, but from a voter question who asked about a time when the candidate didn't say everything they thought. Remember, Clinton critiqued Obama for saying everything he thought. If the places were reversed, Clinton would not have missed an opportunity like that. This is where Obama's inexperience as a politician shows. He's just not very tactical, which to some may seem like a refreshing change but in primary politics, isn't a recipe for success. Frankly, it was a moment of political campaign inexperience. Tactically, these debates do show that Obama hasn't had many tough campaigns, which may explain why he misses opportunities like this one.
The MSNBC Iowa focus groupers seemed to disagree, BTW.
August 18, 2007
Enough's Enough: Obama Will Limit Forum/Debate Participation
Frustrated with the volume of interest group forums and non-party sponsored debates, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign manager has put his foot down: Obama won't attend any more debates that aren't sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee, and he won't accept any more invitations to speak at candidate forums.
In a memo the campaign will post on its website shortly, campaign manager David Plouffe writes that Obama has already spoken at 19 different candidate forums and has participated in seven full debates and is committed to attending a total of fifteen debates.
"Unfortunately, we simply cannot run the kind of campaign we want and need to, engaging with voters in the early states and February 5, if our schedule is dictated by dozens of forums and debates," Plouffe writes. "Ultimately, the one group left out of the current schedule is the voters and they are the ones who ask the toughest questions and most deserve to have those questions answered face to face."
Each forum requires the campaign to carve out hours of preparation time and yield its control over the schedule. Candidates refuse forum invitations at their peril, and Obama risks alienating some of his party's more potent interest groups, going forward.
In his memo, Plouffe acknowledges as much.
Many friends and terrific organizations are sponsoring or planning to sponsor debates and forums. So this is not an easy decision for us to execute. But it simply won’t work to navigate this one by one. We felt we needed to make our approach clear and consistent.
About Obama's decision today, there may well be some political charges lobbed by opponents, but it's true enough that Plouffe, Obama and Obama's chief stategist, David Axelrod, have been itching to announce this decision for a month or so. Plouffe makes sure to mention that Obama "was scored the clear winner by undecided voters in South Carolina and New Hampshire," a sentence that innoculates Obama from charges that he is afraid to debate or peforms poorly in them.
Fairly harsh coverage of Sen. Fred Thompson's first trip to Iowa today... from Fox News, an organ of opinion that Mr. Thompson very much wants in his corner. First, Carl Cameron points out Thompson's Gucci loafers...
He also points out that Thompson did what "no other presidential candidate has done" -- which is to motor around the state fair in a golf cart.
A January 15 Michigan Primary?
Michigan could hold a statewide primary on Jan 15, if a deal reached this morning by top Republicans and Democrats in the state passes muster with state legislators.
Michigan political sources say that Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Sen. Carl Levin are very close to a deal with House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) and Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R). It's not clear whether the state parties are on board, yet, but if the legislature decides to pass a bill changing the primary date, and then Gov. Granholm signs it, there's not much dissidents can do.
As of earlier this week, the prospects for a deal looked dim. The legislature has deadlocked on a bill that would move the official primary date -- Feb. 26 -- much earlier. Both state parties have drafted contingency plans in the event that the legislature and the governor don't agree on an earlier primary. The Dems would probably hold a caucus and the Republicans would probably hold a convention.
What would a Jan. 15 primary mean for the rest of the primary calendar?
One possibility is that the DNC and virtually every other interest in the party gangs up on Michigan and pressures candidates not to compete there. The Republican National Committee has some leverage, but not nearly enough.
Also: If the political world takes Michigan seriously, Iowa might be forced to look at a December date again (despite Gov. Chet Culver's protestations to the contrary) because New Hampshire's Secretary of State would be pressed to set the state's primary in early January.
Housekeeping
We've got a new design, and a letter of introduction from editor James Bennet, who describes our "living op-ed" page, and lots of new features planned.
Won't most Iowa caucusgoers be in church during Sunday morning's Democratic debate?
Doesn't that mean that the news coverage of the debate will be extra important?
Fun With Nexis: Fred Thompson Fresh Iowa Approach
As Fred Thompson heads to Iowa today, it's worth remembering that he wasn't always so sanguine about the conversational opportunities he is bound to have.
While considering a 2000 presidential bid, Thompson implied he would rather spend time working in the Senate than spend "two months in Iowa talking about abortion."
Lucky get will get to spend three and a half months in Iowa talking about abortion now!
According to the August 21, 1998 Commercial Appeal:
Taking a jab at such career campaigners as former Gov. Lamar Alexander and Vice President Al Gore, Thompson responded to a question about a possible presidential candidacy by saying, ''Contrary to popular belief, I don't think you have to run for president for 15 years. Or four years.''
He said he would wait until later this year or early 1999 before making a decision about whether to run. He asked rhetorically whether it was more important to accomplish some important things in the Senate that he feels need to be accomplished ''or spend two months in Iowa talking about abortion.''
I confess I did not remember that Thompson was flirting with a presidential bid in 1998. He has said that he's not one of those guys who had ambitions to be president for all his life.... so, just since 1998, apparently.
August 16, 2007
Young Conservatives Debate, And Fret, About The Future
Is conservatism in a death spiral? Three of the smartest young conservatives I know, Patrick Hynes, Patrick Ruffini and Soren Dayton, have different diagnosis and different cures.
Some thoughts:
The generational challenge: the prospect that the next age cohort of voters will be more culturally conservatives than the current one is very bleak; there is too much evidence to suggest that young voters are operationally libertarian. They are certainly capable of translating moral judgments into policy -- they're more skeptical about unfettered abortion rights -- but they aren't nearly as invested in these battles as their parents are and were.
Social conservativsm and cultural conservatism overlap, but they're not the same. Social conservatism deals with the organization of society and incorporates social institutions like the social safety net, the education system, immigration the media -- as Soren Dayton notes, conservatives can win these arguments -- there is no inherent conflict with modernism. Cultural conservatism -- or, more properly, moral conservatism, addresses issues of conscience, personal morality, sexuality, gender. In the long-term, in the long-term, cultural conservatism conflicts very much with the worldview of the first truly modern generation. (BTW: Rudy Giuliani is a social conservative but not a cultural conservative. Discuss.)
The political paradox: stem cells and gay rights may well become majoritarian issues, but someone has to speak for cultural and moral conservatives. If the Republican Party won't or can't, who will?
The challenge of government -- Not intending to sound like David Sirota here, but the conservative elite loves to hate government and spend their time debating ingenious ways to constrain its growth; the major party fundraisers spend their time lobbying Congress to curtail regulation; Americans say they hate government; they want to cut government in theory; they want government off our backs; they don't vote for small government and they complain when politicians dare to touch their entitlements. They expect their government to be competent. Mike Huckabee seems to understand that there's a paradox at the heart of the movement. My colleagues Reihan Salam and Ross Douthat are currently finishing a book on Sam's Club Republicanism and the journey of the Republican Party away from the locus of ordinary people and their material concerns.
The elites hate it, but national security conservatism is alive and well and is attractive to independents. The administration has been so successful in yoking the Iraq war to the war against terrorism, though, that conservatives need to find a way to disentangle the two.
Cassandritus aside, there's no enduring evidence to suggest that the Democrats have improved their brand relative to its status after the 2004 election, when, as you'll recall, Democrats completely lost their grip on reality and pessimistically consigned themselves to the dustbin of history. Short memories.
Detente In The Michigan Primary Wars?
A rough detente has been reached in Michigan's bruising inter-Republican Party debate about presidential primary rules.
Last night, the party chair, Saul Anuzis, reached an accord with the two RNC committee members, Chuck Yob and Holly Hughes. The rules they agreed on are complicated, but the gist is that, in exchange for some concessions from Anuzis, Yob and Hughes will be made convention officers if Republicans vote to choose their delegates at a Jan. 26 state convention -- the most likely scenario.
Anuzis wanted potential state convention delegates to commit to their candidates by Jan. 3 -- before Iowa and New Hampshire. That was unacceptable to Yob; in 1988, Yob was the convention chair in Michigan when Pat Robertson, fresh off of an Iowa victory, found his momentum somewhat diminished by a poor showing among Michigan's Republican elites. So Yob wanted to preserve the ability of delegates to choose candidates much closer to the date of the convention themselves. That'll help his candidate -- Sen. John McCain -- if McCain does well in Iowa or New Hampshire and carries momentum heading into late January.
Next, on Aug. 25, the state committee will vote to approve the rules package and they'll finally decide what their fall-back option will be if the state legislature and the government fail to move the primary to Feb. 5 or Jan. 29.
Seven Michigan congresspersons want an open primary on Jan. 26 -- they represent a cross-section of candidates. Most of the state committee wants to hold a convention, which is a much more restrictive process -- one that would, not coincidentally, empower certain factions on the state committee.
The Giuliani Questioner Has A History
The woman who asked Rudy Giuliani about his family today was the same woman who, in 1999, asked Al Gore about Juanita Broaddrick.
The person who directed the Comeback Kid's 1992 New Hampshire campaign, Mitchell Schwartz, has joined Sen. Barack Obama's team.
Longtime Los Angeles Democratic operative Mitchell Schwartz has jumped on the Obama train.
The founder of the Bombay Company public relations firm, which coordinated the online media campaign for former Vice President Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth, Schwartz will serve as California State Director for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.
In a statement Thursday he praised the Illinois senator for opposing the Iraq war ``from the start,’’ adding, ``it’s not enough to change parties, we’ve got to transform politics.’’
Schwartz has worked on nearly every presidential campaign since 1984, and served in 1992 as Bill Clinton’s New Hampshire state director. He also served on campaigns for Sen. Barbara Boxer, former Gov. Gray Davis and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villraigosa.
California remains a strong state for Hillary Clinton. It's the biggest Feb. 5. prize, since many of the other states have predetermined outcomes: Illinois for Obama, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut for Clinton. It's hard to imagine the eventual Democratic nominee recovering from a California defeat, isn't it?
Just Asking
Official market correction or not, the economy continues to be my number one pick for the sleeper issue of the 2008 presidential campaign.
Here are questions the presidential candidates should be ready to answer:
-- If there's a recession, would you cut taxes? Raise taxes?
-- Should the federal government bail out Countryside if it goes belly up?
-- Should the Fed cut interest rates?
-- What should the president do right now to stabilize the markets and prevent bleed-over into the general economy?
Republican Rudy Giuliani said Thursday that people should "leave my family alone" when asked by a New Hampshire woman why the presidential candidate should expect loyalty from voters when he doesn't get it from his children.
.....
Answering questions at a town-hall meeting, Giuliani was asked why he should expect loyalty from GOP voters when his children aren't backing him.
"I love my family very, very much and will do anything for them. There are complexities in every family in America," Giuliani said calmly and quietly. "The best thing I can say is kind of, 'leave my family alone, just like I'll leave your family alone.'"
His comments were greeted with a smattering of applause from the audience of about 120 people. Giuliani urged them to judge him based on his performance as mayor and a federal prosecutor, and he launched into a list of his successes such as reducing crime and welfare and prosecuting organized crime figures and drug dealers.
Edwards Tries To Enlist Obama In Anti-Lobbying Push
Sen. John Edwards wants the Democratic Party to reject contributions from Washington lobbyists, and today, campaign officials asked Sen. Barack Obama to join the Edwards campaign in writing a letter to the heads of the Democratic campaign committees urging them to stop taking donations from registered federal lobbyists.
"There is a pernicious connection between money and argument," said Jonathan Prince, Edwards's deputy campaign manager. "We want to take the money out of it. Nobody is suggesting that people shouldn't add on behalf of your client."
Edwards's communications director, Chris Kofinis taunted Obama: "I cannot see the reason why Sen. Obama should disagree. I imagine he would wholeheartedly support this." Prince said the Democrats would benefit politically from unilaterally abstaining from taking Washington lobbyist money.
"Right now, the Democratic Party can say, we're reforming our party," he said.
Edwards was frustrated when efforts to bait Hillary Clinton into justifying her acceptance of lobbying cash resulted in what the press covered as a clash between Obama and Hillary. But adviser Joe Trippi said today's conference call was not an attempt to inject Edwards into the Obama/Clinton dynamic. "This is about leading the party to real reform," Trippi said.
Edwards has yet to announce a government ethics proposal; Obama has made his own detailed plan a centerpiece of recent campaign stops.
Obama spokesman Bill Burton e-mails:
Senator Obama appreciates what John Edwards is saying about lobbyists, which is why Obama doesn't accept contributions from federal lobbyists and PACS. But it's not enough just to refuse their money, we have to curb their influence. That's why Obama led the fight in the Illinois state Senate to pass the first major ethics reform in 25 years and spearheaded the effort to pass landmark ethics legislation in the U.S. Senate, ensuring that lobbyists have to disclose who they're raising campaign money from, and who in Congress they're funneling it to. Obama has done more to curb lobbyists' influence than anyone else in this race and has the furthest reaching plan to fundamentally reform government and shut the revolving door between the White House and K Street. We invite John Edwards and every other candidate to support the sweeping reforms Obama has proposed to take our government back from the special interests and put it in the hands of the American people.
RNC's Show Of Hands
Later today, the Republican National Committee will release a web game in honor of the Democrat's first Iowa debate. It's called "Show of Hands."
Machinists To Hold Bipartisan Candidate Forum
The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers will hold its presidential forum on Aug. 27 and Aug. 28, and they've managed to attract a constellation of political stars from both parties: Sen. Hillary Clinton, ex-Sen. John Edwards, ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Sen. John McCain and ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee.
The IAM says that Sen. Joe Biden might also attend.
Sen. Barack Obama said no -- evidence, perhaps, that he's beginning to turn down appearances to forums. Some of his campaign advisers are frustrated about the demands to appear at these interest group "debates" -- they require prep time and make it nearly impossible to get anything else done on the scheduled day.
Why Rove Attacked Clinton
Two Republicans close to Karl Rove said that his decision to tie his exit from the Bush White House to a series of frontal assaults on the political viability of Sen. Hillary Clinton stems in part from his conviction that she will be the Democratic nominee, as Rove said. But there's also a bit of envy: Clinton has so successfully rehabiliated her image -- she's established her own political identity -- that Rove wants to pressure Republicans to begin their character attacks on Clinton now, rather than later.
It's a strategy Rove employed during the 2004 re-election, when the Bush campaign decided early to cover Bush's own negatives by portraying Sen. John Kerry as completely to lead the country during perilous times.
Aides to Sen. Barack Obama have another take. "There is a long view, which I think folks are missing," an Obama aide says. " This just underscores the old politics that we've been running against." In other words: Democrats are tired of Bush v. Clinton fights.
August 15, 2007
Clinton is To Experience As Obama Is To Fresh Ideas
And which matters more?
A new CBS News poll finds that 51% of registered voters don't think Barack Obama has the "right experience" to be president; 29 percent do.
Hillary Clinton has the right experience, according to 59% of those surveyed; 35% don't.
By contrast:
WOULD THEY TRY NEW WAYS OR FOLLOW TRADITIONAL APPROACHES?
Obama Clinton
New ways 61% 43%
Traditional 18% 40%
approaches
CBS sampled a large cross-section of registered voters, which means that this poll is a useful gauge of mass opinion; there's no direct connection between these results and surveys of likely primary voters in states.
Ok, so do voters favor new ways or traditional approaches? To what extent is this a change election? 63% favor new ways; 24 percent favor traditional approaches.
That's kind of a stale question, though, right? Most poll respondents probably think "new ways" is the right answer.
How about a more directed question: which attribute do voters desire more?
EXPERIENCE VS. FRESH IDEAS?
Experience 44%
Fresh ideas 41%
What about Democrats only?
Among Democratic primary voters who value experience, Clinton leads Obama by more than three to one, 49% to 16%. Among those who value fresh ideas,
The poll doesn't ask the next logical questions in the sequence: of those Democrats paying attention now, which matters more? Of those Democrats not paying attention, which mattes more? For voters in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina, which matters more?
Ok -- let's assume that folks don't think Obama has the "right experience." Does that mean they think he'll make the wrong decisions?
Two thirds of voters think it likely he would make good decisions about dealing with foreign countries, slightly fewer than say the same about Clinton.
What about Obama's ability to handle an international crisis?
Just 33% do, while more, 49%, are uneasy. Voters are also skeptical about Clinton’s ability to do so, although more voters have confidence in her.
Final salient question. How sticky are Clinton's supporters right now?
Both Obama’s and Clinton’s supporters are energized by their candidates. 63% of Democratic primary voters who back Obama say they strongly favor him, as do 61% of Clinton’s supporters.
Rudy Giuliani And The Solubility of Illegal Immigration
What's the difference between a change of position and a change in tone?
On so many issues -- abortion rights, gay rights, gun rights, and now immigration, Giuliani has adopted the language, intonation and policy orientation of a conservative while insisting that his underlying position hasn't changed.
Does it really matter if Giuliani says he is pro-choice if he'll appoint pro-life "(non-activist")judges? That he supports domestic partnership benefits for gays if he won't sign any do-pa legislation while in office? That he's hard on illegal immigration if he won't deport the 12M illegals already here?
One cannot listen to this excerpt of Giuliani, taken from an apperance before the Kennedy School of Government in 1996, and conclude that, in the back of his mind, Giuliani was somehow arguing that if only our law enforcement techniques got better, we'd be able to solve the problem. He was making an affirmative argument that solving the problem itself could be more harmful than preserving the status quo So -- clearly -- Giuliani's argument has changed.
Perhaps 9/11 is responsible; perhaps the events of that day convinced him of the imperative of finding a solution to this insoluble problem. Perhaps he has adjusted his tone for political reasons.
“As the Mayor made clear in his comments over a decade ago the technology simply did not exist to completely secure the border in 1996. Reasonable people understand we have made great technological strides in the past 11 years and our national security now depends on stopping the flow of illegal immigrants to our country. The fact of the matter is we can and must end illegal immigration, and Mayor Giuliani is the leader our country needs to get it done.”
A side note: it might be tougher for Romney to try to turn this particular issue into an example of Rudy's flip-flopping, given the reams of YouTube videos purporting to document his own evolution. Romney is on safer ground when he argues that Giuliani is weak on immigration, not that he's changed his position.
When Will Hillary Clinton Announce?
Just noticing...
Clinton's presidential campaign committee is still called the "Hillary Clinton for President Exploratory Committee."
The law doesn't distinguish between exploratory committees and regular candidate committees; Clinton could easily call her comittee a "No, This Is For Real-Wait-No-It's-Not" committee. So all her lawyers have to do is to send in a form to change the name.
But still. Interesting.
Why The Media Likes Huckabee
I think Bob Novak gets it, sort of.
. Affable and sincere -- and more important, seemingly harmless -- Huckabee is treated well by the media that certainly don't share most of his views
First of all, the media does seem to share Huckabee's views on immigraton, global warming and poverty.
But Novak is on to something: Huckabee does not fit the still-enduring press stereotype of a "scary" evangelical. He's not a Sinners-In-The-Hands-Of-An-Angry God-Jonathan-Edwards Calvinist by any means; he's not a premilennialist; he is laid-back and easy-going; he is vulnerable (the weight loss will do that more a man), he is iconoclastic and denies that cows are sacred; he is also, at the same time, a very canny practitioner of politics.
For one thing, he's always accessible. Today, in fact, he's sitting down with some reporters on Capitol Hill.
Certainly, Huckabee knows that the press still cricks its neck toward conservative evangelicalsm and so he plays against type: he knows that the press doesn't like to hear about the evils of homosexuality or the perils of abortion, so he rarely talks about those subjects. (He's a "pro-life for the whole-life" kind of guy.)
Consider: As a former Southern Baptist pastor, Huckabee's moral credentials are unimpeachable. He does not have to pander to -- er, appeal to -- evangelical Christians. He is one.
Consider: Huckabee and Sam Brownback have virtually identical answers to contested cultural and social questions, but Huckabee has cultivated a much more worldly, modernist, broad-based public image.
Is The Political World Ignoring The Economy?
A well-connected Democrat with a background in economics worries that the Democratic presidntial candidates are paying too little attention to the prospect of a recession. They're nibbling at the edges -- Hillary Clinton has a plan to solve what she sees as a national housing crisis -- but none of the candidates seem remotely prepared for a credit crunch, a market crash, a sudden GDP decline and a marked decline in consumer spending.
One theory is that Democrats don't want to be accused of talking down the economy in the way that the Republicans accuse them of talking down the surge.
This Democrat e-mails:
The Fed and European Central Bank last week intervened in a big way (the ECB pumped substantially more money into the financial system in a single day last week than they did the day after 9/11) to inject liquidity and get the markets on their feet. Probably a good thing, unless you worry about moral hazard problems, but they don't intervene unless things are getting dicey. And things are getting dicey – and things are likely to get much, much worse before they get better. I don’t think the political world understands just how harrowing the last two weeks have been in the financial markets. How and why did we get here?
Mortgage problems are spreading beyond subprime, which had already been an obvious and growing problem – Countrywide, a large mortgage originator reported in July that the delinquency rate on prime (not subprime) home equity loans was 3.7%, up from 1.5% a year before. Jumbo loans (above $417,000) are being priced 1.5% higher than non-jumbos, if they can be found at all. As recently as 2 weeks ago, the rate for a jumbo was almost equal to a non-jumbo, things have shifted that quickly. To give you a sense of why this matters, in the San Francisco Bay Area, 61.9% of mortgages are of the jumbo variety. If the housing market was already bad, it's just going to get worse as mortgage lenders stop the flow of easy money and housing gets decidedly more expensive, especially in large urban areas. (This perhaps will be a blue-state phenomenon more than a red state phenomenon).
The mortgage market mess has had a contagion effect in the broader credit markets. Appetite for the junk offerings being thrown off by multi-billion dollar private equity deals has disappeared as risk is getting re-priced. Here again there has been contagion beyond high-yield. Case in point, the LIBOR (London interbank offered rate, which banks charge to each other) jumped by 1.5% in a single day last week. That just doesn't happen. Today, there are signs that a bunch of banks in Canada are cutting back on lending to commercial paper issuers, ostensibly borrowers that are relatively safe bets. And a company that manages money funds for hedge funds today asked for permission to suspend redemptions. Counterparties that for years have lent to each other on very generous terms are suddenly extremely suspicious of each other.
A lot of the big investment banks are going to have ugly Augusts and Septembers as these private equity deals come home to roost and more losses emerge among the hedge funds they manage. This will lead to further turmoil in the banking sector, creating a downward spiral.
Where does it end? I’m not sure. I would say that the odds of a significant recession in the next 18 months are materially greater than 60%. If I were to venture a guess, I would bet that “it’s the economy stupid” is going to be right up there with “bring them home” when it comes to sloganeering on the campaign trial next year.
Fatten The Beast
Many Democrats buy the theory that Republicans, when thinking long-term about government, employ a Starve The Beast strategy; that is, by cutting income taxes, expanding budget deficits and attempting to decertify government, Democrats won't be able to do much damage (read: increase spending, raise taxes) when they're in office. In the off chance that Democrats try to raise taxes, they'll be punished at the polls.
Maybe it's time to construct a Fatten the Beast theory about the administration's aggressive expansion of intelligence collection programs and their equally audacious executive power land grab.
For the sake of argument, let's assume that Vice President Cheney really does want to protect the country from future terrorist attacks. The principle of intertia applies, the more programs exist, the harder it is for a Democratic president to dismantle all of them -- particularly when they prove useful to law enforcement.
Consider: today's article in the Wall Street Journal about how spy satellites operated by the National Reconnaisance Office will be assigned to homeland law enforcement tasks, a policy change that's characterized as a substantial expansion of domestic intelligence gathering. If Democrats object to this, will they campaign to rescind this authority? In office, is it concievable that they'd end the program if it began to produce results? Or would they just cosmetically modify this collection program to give the appearance of more oversight?
## Will the next Democratic president refuse to issue signing statements?
## Will the next Democratic president seek to curtail the NSA's domestic intelligence collection if investigations and operations are hot and active?
## Will the next Democratic president prevent the FBI from stationing radioactivity-detection vans outside mosques?
## Will the next Democratic president order the NSA to halt its joint activities with U.S. data collection companies?
## Will the next Democratic president reform the classification system?
## Will the next Democratic president not rely on those legal precedents claimed by the Bush White House that courts have already sanctioned?
## If the Rove/Miers executive privilege argument is upheld, won't the next Democratic president be sorely tempted to employ it when Republicans begin to investigate?
Thompson Signals Tax Reform Priority
Fred Thompson, in a letter to FairTax.org, signals that reforming the tax code will be one of his top priorities as president. Notice, though, that he doesn't exactly endorse the FairTax proposal, which would gut the income tax and replace it with a national sales tax.
Mr. Leo Linbeck, Chairman
Americans for Fair Taxation
Dear Leo:
I’ve appreciated seeing the Fair Tax folks when I'm out on the road, as well as their enthusiasm when they've come to my events. Although I wish they’d get my good side when they roll their cameras!
My staff and I have been working with Americans for Fair Taxation for some time now. We share the same belief that the next President should enact a fundamental overhaul of the tax code that makes it fairer, simpler, and more pro-growth. There are a number of ways to do that, and over the years I've looked at many of them.
Congress must begin a serious consideration of real fundamental tax reform, rather than nibbling around the edges. I think the principles and ideas found in the Fair Tax are a good place to start, particularly given the grassroots support it enjoys across the country.
Hillary and Obama Are Running Two Different Campaigns
Barack Obama's interview with the Washington Post this morning recapitulates the message he's been propounding from day one:
"I think it is fair to say that I believe I can bring the country together more effectively than she can," Obama said. "I will add, by the way, that is not entirely a problem of her making. Some of those battles in the '90s that she went through were the result of some pretty unfair attacks on the Clintons. But that history exists, and so, yes, I believe I can bring the country together in a way she cannot do. If I didn't believe that, I wouldn't be running.
Obama and Clinton are, in effect, running two different campaigns each based on two different readings of the temperature and directional pull of the electorate right now.
Hillary Clinton reads recent political history materially; The country's political cleavages are not artificial or contrived; they're cut from basic differences in how to organize society. Democrats want to be proud of their identity as Democrats again; the central animating principle of her candidacy is that the country sufffers; that President Bush and the Republicans are to blame; that Hillary Clinton is the solution. Americans don't hate government; they just hate when government doesn't work. The Clintons know how to make government work; as president Hillary Clinton will recertify government. How does Clinton win news cycles? When she's attacked by Republicans or President Bush.
Obama wants to remind Democrats of the feeling they get when they're at a ball game and the national anthem is played -- a post (or pre) partisan, transhistorical patriotism that is then channeled into the political system as the ultimate expression of Democratic ideals. It's a complex argument, easily and reductively characterized as "Obama versus the System." In the context of the primary, Obama is simultaneously addressing the Clinton dynastic ambition, the allure of a post-Clinton era for Democratic political elite and the nagging sense for many Democrats that the Clintons contributed to and were in some ways responsible for the downturn in Democratic fortunes after Bush v. Gore. How does Obama win news cycles? When everyone notices there is daylight between him and Clinton.
August 14, 2007
Nevada's Still Relevant
The Nevada Democratic Caucuses has been the all-but-designated runt of the Democratic' primary calendar reconfiguration, and with all the recent shifting, it's arguably less relevant than it was. But many of the Democrats, in particular, have demonstrated that even with its downgraded status, Nevada is worth the effort and expense. The real reason Nevada remains relevant to the primaries is its status as a general election swing state.
Item: Today, Sen. Barack Obama begins Spanish-language radio advertising in the state. (His campaign will announce this shortly.)
Item: Rumors swirl that Sen. John Edwards has begun to move staff out of Nevada; a spokesperson won't confirm or deny.
Item: This cycle, Nevada is the only state in which a single union endorsement could clinch the state for a candidate. The Culinary Workers Local 226 of UniteHere represents 60,000 Las Vegas casino and restuarant workers. Negotiators just secured its members new, five-year contract from Harrah's. But Local 226 is also fighting MGM-Mirage, which owns 10 major properties on the strip. A strike looks more and more likely. The Dem presidential candidates have agreed to join the workers on the picket line.
Item: Think that John Edwards has the Local 226 endorsement locked up? Not so fast. Obama has been courting its members furiously (as has Sen. Hillary Clinton), and knowledgeable union political sources say that an endorsement of Obama is as likely (if not more likely) than an endorsement of Edwards.
Item: Clinton has the most high-profile endorsements and the backing of many key components of the Harry Reid machine (although Reid himself is neutral); Obama's campaign claims the most volunteers and two very astute vets of recent cycles: ex-NV Dem executive director Alison Schwartz and ex-Jill Derby (NV-02) campaign manager David Cohen. Many veteran union organizers are helping Edwards.
It's imperative that the White House plays along. Today, for the first time this cycle, the White House responded to a Democratic television ad -- Clinton's.
Q Dana, do you want to respond to a new ad that Senator Clinton is running in Iowa, in which he claims and charges that people without health care coverage are invisible to this President, and that U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan are invisible to this President>
MS. PERINO: Well, this is going to be tricky going into the campaign season, when people start running ads, because as tempted as I am to take that head on, I think I will refer to the RNC for the specific -- for answers on the politics of it. But as to the merits of it, I think it's outrageous. This is a President who, first and foremost, has helped millions of seniors across the country have access to prescription drugs at a much lower cost. That system that the President put in -- helped put in place, with the help of both sides of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, Medicare Part D, is helping millions of people, and working better than anyone would have expected. In addition to that, the President has tried to take on the issue at the root cause of it, and tried to change our health care system so that we actually are helping provide less expensive but still great quality care to people all over the country.
And as to whether or not our troops are invisible to this President, I think that that is absurd, and that is unconscionable that a member of Congress would say such a thing.
FairTax.Org Responds
Tim Hoagland, FairTax.org's communication's director, wants to set the record straight about his group's role in helping Mike Huckabee place second at the Ames straw poll:
For the record, everywhere we went on our 25 city Iowa bus tour over the last two weeks we saw crowds enthusiastic for the FairTax. We invited one and all to come to Ames on our 10 buses and have little doubt that supporters of each candidate--and undecided's--came to Ames with us. This is a grassroots campaign to advance an issue important to the nation and every taxpayer
We never inquired as to whom someone supported, only asking them to come to our two events. We estimate that 5,000-7,000 people came through our tent during the day. Our "Fairest Wheel" drew a lot of attention as did the funnel cakes, Mel McDaniel's band, our air-conditioned tent and our FairTax materials. We believe a lot of people came in skeptics and left the tent, believers. We saw a lot of Romney and Brownback supporters wearing "FairTax" stickers on top of their candidates T-shirt even though those candidates don't support the FairTax. Simply put, the idea is resonating with the public, irrespective of political affiliation or candidate preference.
Having said that, it cannot really be a surprise that those citizens who feel so strongly about the FairTax naturally gravitate to those candidates who most strongly advocate enactment. It is, after all, a non-regressive national retail sales tax that replaces the dysfunctional income tax system, eliminates all federal taxes on the poor and benefits taxpayers at every income level.
That Mike Huckabee, who made the FairTax a central plank of his campaign efforts in Iowa and elsewhere, benefited from the popularity of FairTax is only a surprise to those who have not followed the growing grassroots popularity of the FairTax (as seen in 514 radio talk shows over the past 11 months). We have seen 10,000 person rallies in the last year in South Carolina, Florida and Georgia. We are getting 50,000 web hits a day to www.fairtax.org
Finally, anyone saying that the FairTax buses or grassroots campaign was a "secret" weapon must be unaware of the fact that we have been telling anyone who will listen about our bus tour, our issue and our Straw Poll events. That the national media has paid little attention to an issue that recently has seen five of eight GOP candidates, one prominent almost candidate--and one Democrat--give it support is less a "secret" than a largely unreported truth.
August 13, 2007
No One Like Karl Rove
There's so much to be said about this incredible, maligned, admired figure.
Six and A Half Years
It's an awfully long time to be a senior White House official. Were there any Reagan adviser-lifers? The only Clinton lifer who comes to mind is Patti Solis Doyle, who spent eight years with Hillary Clinton. (Update: there were plenty of Clinton lifers, it turns out: Shalala, Reno, Browner and Babbitt, Bruce Lindsey, Gene Sperling, Sandy Berger, Bruce Reed and others.)
The Legacy
The Atlantic Joshua Green (who can, incidentally, be seen on every television program known to man today) makes a compelling case that Rove's obsession with realignment theory led to a fundamental misreading of government -- and that to the extent that history judges him poorly, it's the result of choices he made. A bigger question Green raises: to what extent were Rove's political successes a side effect of exogenous events like 9/11 and the fecklessness of the Democratic Party before the Iraq war? In other words: to what degree were Rove's problems a result of Bush's choices?
The Intellect
Was Rove a dabbler? A lumper? A splitter? Did he have a Whig view of history or a Tory view of history? Did he read widely and deeply or widely and superficially? How often did he change his mind?
The Press
Boy, did Karl Rove get in his gut the biases, predilections, worldviews, habits, ticks and insecurities of the national media. The first Bush campaign -- and the administration in the first few years -- consciously worked the press as simply another agent of influence. Another part of Rove's realignment theory: delegitimize, decertify and discombobulate the press; control it with psychological power; reduce its influence on the political process.
Rove in particular knew how to massage the egos of high-powered analysts, and these Rove hagiographers ought to be ready to evaluate Rove, now, in the twilight of the career. But it's to Rove's credit as a political strategist that he so deftly managed the press. (Disclosure: I met Rove twice and had an extended conversation with him only once; we never e-mailed or spoke on the telephone. I was not among the chosen few, although I may well have fallen for his charms had I been.)
The Polarizer
An obvious and cliche point, but Democratic partisans viscerally hate the guy. Republicans are ambivalent. The people who've worked for Rove love him, literally, and are extraordinarily loyal.
The Agnostic
I could be wrong here, but I distinctly recall conversations with Rove friends who've told me that his struggles with faith did not lead him to Jesus Christ. Yet he knew and understood how to interact with (and manipulate, at times) the standard-bearers of the evangelical right and the Catholic conservative intellectual elite; he studied them like a sociologist; he knew their language, totems and insecurities, and in the White House, he used the powers of government to give them their voice and to fill their ego-needs.
The Power
As the Hotline notes, after John Weaver's resignation from John McCain's campaign, no current '08 candidate has a Rove-like guru. (In so many ways, Bill Clinton's role in Hillary Clinton's campaign is entirely distinctive.) Friends say that Democrats overstate Rove's influence over Bush and that Rove understates it.
Friendship
Bush and Rove were acquaintances, then buddies, then totally inseparable. 34 years of camaraderie and deep trust. In a conversation with a friend today, both Bush and Rove joked about their codependency. Moving on will be tough for both men.
Hillary Clinton's First Ad
Sen. Hillary Clinton sounds a partisan, populist theme in her first television ad, which begins today in Iowa.
The sixty-second spot features an excerpt from Clinton's stump speech, interspersed with footage of Clinton talking to farmers, shop-keepers and other ordinary folks.
"As I travel around America, I hear from so many people who feel like they are invisible to their government," Clinton says in the ad. "If you have a family that's struggling... you are invisible to this president...You're not invisible to me....You won't be invisible to the next president of the United States."
A Clinton spokesman wouldn't say what the ad is costing the campaign but did say that it will air in all Iowa television markets. Virtually all the Democratic candidates will spend the balance of the week in the state; they'll participate in a debate on Sunday.
Clinton's ad joins a medley of rival spots: Sen. Barack Obama, Sen. John Edwards, Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Chris Dodd are all fairly regular paid presences on the TV screen.
Both Clinton and Obama believe they are making progress in Iowa, and both campaigns will watch to see whether Clinton's ad helps her. Obama's ads use his biography to draw out an appeal to the value of consensus and bipartisanship. (The system is the problem and Obama is the solution). Clinton's is more traditional; (Bush is the problem and Clinton is the solution.)
Clinton is the last major Dem candidate to turn on the media spigot -- and it's not yet September. At this point in 1992, her husband had not even opened a presidential committee.
How Did Huckabee Place Second?
As Soren Dayton notes, there are two salient facts: Mike Huckabee's campaign did not rent buses to drive supporters to the straw poll in Ames, Iowa and he supports the Fair Tax, which would replace the income tax and most of the tax code with a national retail sales tax.
Here is what Dayton is getting at. Fairtax.org, a 504 (c) 4, filled at least 20 buses worth of economically conservative Iowans and drove them to the straw poll. Of the mainstream Republican candidates, only Huckabee has made the Fair Tax a staple of his domestic policy program.
In an e-mail to supporters Saturday, FairTax.org bragged that it "made history tonight. Our grassroots efforts in Iowa made the FairTax the deciding issue in Iowa's Straw Poll. We did it!"
[We] want to especially thank our dedicated volunteers and hardworking staff members who braved almost 100 degree temperatures to make our rallies and hospitality tent the places to be at the Iowa Straw Poll. Their hard work, in extremely difficult weather conditions, set the bar even higher for our next major rally. Yes, we will be rallying on the East Coast again - details coming soon.
Nowhere does FairTax.org claim that it specifically aided the Huckabee effort and 20 to 30 buses worth of supporters would be responsible for at most half of Huckabee's margin. Not incidentally, any collusion between the Huckabee campaign and Fair Tax.org would be legally questionable.
Here's another source of Huckabee's strength: home schoolers. It's true -- a campaign tells me that national home school advocate Michael Farris helped to organize a train of car poolers for Iowa homeschools and points out that Huckabee had two breakfast meetings on Saturday morning with some of his more ardent home-school-parent supporters.
In his speech to straw-poll goers, Huckabee dared them to prove their "maturity" -- his word -- by casting their ballots based on an assessment of substance, not style. It was a powerful appeal to reason, and some might speculate that his words moved votes. The problem is that Huckabee spoke around 2:00 pm. By that point, about 12,000 of 14,000 votes had already been cast. It's possible that the lion's share of afternoon votes went to Huckabee, but there's no way to prove this.
So -- how did Huckabee finish so highly?
1. He is a powerful political communicator.
2. His campaign paid for about 1800 tickets.
3. His support of the Fair Tax proposal
4. His affinity with evangelical Christians and home schoolers
5. His many visits to Iowa and high-profile evangelical activist supporters
6. He needed only about 2600 votes to finish second
7. His debate performances
News; Florida GOPers Try To Preserve Delegate Strength
Some news that every Republican presidential campaign has taken note of: the winner of the Jan. 29 Republican primary in Florida could get all the delegates. The current winner-take-all-by-congressional-district rules might be jettisoned.
Here's how.
By holding its primary on Jan. 29, Florida is likely to violate the Republican National Committee's delegate selection rules. The number of delegates sent to the convention would be cut in half. If that happened, it's very likely that state chair Jim Greer would, under new powers granted to him on Saturday, elect to grant the winner of the state's primary all of its delegates.
Why? Greer wants to make sure Florida has a large presence at the RNC convention regardless of what the RNC does. And he wants to make his state remains a campaign beacon to candidates. 57 delegates is not as attractive as 114, but it's a lot more attractive, than, say, 30 delegates -- or the number of delegates the winner would have earned under the old rules.
Here is the full text of Article M, which the state party's rules committee passed Sat.:
In the event that the RNC imposes the 50 percent delegate cut, Florida's 57 delegates will be Winner Takes All, selected by the Chairman (as opposed to current hybrid of selection by Congressional District caucuses and At Large appointments), and the WTA delegates will bound to that winner for the first 3 rounds of voting.
Of the early states, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut and Delaware are winner-take-all, thanks to the direct intervention of Giuliani partisans on the state committees. If Giuliani's Feb. 5 strategy pays off, he can thank his campaign's behind-the-scenes political maneuvering.
August 12, 2007
Tommy Thompson Goes Home.
Saying he has 'no regrets', Governor Tommy Thompson thanked his supporters Saturday night and officially left the campaign trail.
"I want to thank the people of Iowa who were welcoming and supportive as well as my volunteers and contributors from around the country," said Thompson. "I have no regrets about running. I felt my record as Governor of Wisconsin and Secretary of Health and Human Services gave me the experience I needed to serve as President, but I respect the decision of the voters. I am leaving the campaign trail today, but I will not leave the challenges of improving health care and welfare in America."
Thompson, who was elected to serve four terms as Wisconsin Governor and four years as Secretary of Health and Human Services, began exploring a presidential bid last December. Weeks ago, he told supporters and the news media that if he did not do well in the Iowa Straw Poll, he would step aside and leave others to work for the Republican nomination.
"No candidate is more experienced than Governor Thompson and no candidate worked harder; but sometimes the dynamics just aren't there to bring about a victory," said Steve Grubbs, Senior Advisor to Thompson's campaign. "The Governor's staff was deeply committed to him and to his candidacy. If we could have willed a victory, we would have."
Thompson will return to the private sector as well as his non-profit work after a brief time off.
"I have very much enjoyed my years in public service and I am comforted by the fact that I think I made a difference for people during that time. I hope to continue working to serve others over the next few years," said Thompson.
August 11, 2007
AMES: The Romney Victory
Mitt Romney won the Ames straw poll tonight because of a combination of plod and money.
Romney was exultant in a brief speech to supporters, and campaign aides, attempting to keep expectations in check with the results, said the margin of victory represented a major validation of Romney’s extensive and expensive efforts in the first caucus state.
Since three major rivals skipped the event, since Romney had visited the state 17 times, since he spent so heavily to transport supporters to Ames today and because he ran Ames-related several statewide television advertisements, his victory was all but certain.
The temperature was on Romney’s mind as he addressed reporters. “It feels great to win. It’s a warm one. But if you thought it was hot, it felt cool to me to win.” Romney said the victory shows he can win “purple states” like Iowa. He acknowledged that turnout was low and said his campaign had anticipated a slightly larger number of votes.
Asked about McCain and Giuliani’s performances, Romney couldn’t resist a taunt. “It’s too bad the other guys weren’t competing here… but they ‘d have played if they thought they could have won,” he said.
Michael DuHaime, Rudy Giuliani’s campaign manager, released a statement that did not mention Romney. “After tonight’s straw poll, Rudy Giuliani continues to be the candidate well-positioned to win the Republican nomination and the only candidate in the race who can beat the Democrats in 2008.”
Ken Mehlman, the former RNC chairman who ran George W. Bush’s Iowa effort in 1999 and who is neutral in the presidential race, said Romney’s victory was impressive.
“I think that the results show that he made a serious commitment and that it paid off,” Mehlman said.
Romney's straw poll operation had an Election Day feel to it. The campaign set up a boiler room in Ames to monitor straw poll "turnout." Volunteers telephone recalcitrant supporters who had pledged to attend the straw poll but failed to get on their assigned bus. Campaign aides called the straw poll a rehearsal for the Iowa caucuses in January. Other advisers said that Romney would use the momentum from his win to consolidate the center-right foot-soldiers in the Republican base.
The second flight out of Ames belongs to Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who manifestly did not spend nearly as much as third-place finisher Sam Brownback and who has been dogged by questions about his ability to harness his support.
“We had two fish and five loaves and it fed 5,000,” Huckabee said of his victory.
Whether Huckabee leverages his finish to raise money and enhance his profile remains to be seen. Huckabee has been allergic to high dollar fundraising and has virtually no presence on the Internet.
Michael Farris, a Huckabee adviser who runs the Home School Legal Defense Fund, said Huckabee’s campaign has existed on a “shoe-string budget” so far. “But it just goes to show that he is the best communicator in this race.”
Sen. Brownback spent about $325,000, his campaign said.
Several of the lesser-known candidates staked their viability on strong Ames showings, including ex Wi-Gov. Tommy Thompson, who said he would drop out if he did not place second.
AMES: Romney WIns; Huckabee In Second
Gov Mitt Romney won the 2007 Ames straw poll, receiving 4516 votes, or 31%.
In a surprise, Gov. Mike Huckabee finished second with 2587 votes at 18.1%
11. John Cox with 41 votes.
10. John McCain with 101 votes.
9. Duncan Hunter with 174 votes.
8. Rudy Giuliani with 183 votes.
7. Fred Thomson with 203 votes.
6. Tommy Thompson, 1,039 votes, 7.3%
5. Ron Paul with 1305 votes, and 9.1%
4. Tom Tancredo with 1961 votes, 13.7%.
3. Sen. Sam Brownback with 2192 votes and 15.3%
Iowa state auditor David Vaudt unofficially certified the results.
14,203 ballots were cast.
AMES: A Partial Recount Confirmed
AMES -- Mary Tiffany, an Iowa Republican Party official, confirms that at least one voting machine malfunctioned and that tabulators recounted at least 1500 ballots.
The state party rented optical scan machines from Diebold, a company at the center of several recent voting controversies. Recently, the state of California decertified Diebold machines for the 2008 election.
Yesterday, Iowans who support Ron Paul failed to get a judge to require a voter-verified paper ballot be used in today's straw poll. Separately, the state party told the Paul campaign that a full paper recount would cost $184,000.
Already, some Paul supporters are whispering about a challenge.
AMES: Results Delayed An Hour And Counting..
AMES -- The Atlantic's Joshua Green tells me that the Romney high command is currently huddled around campaign counsel Ben Ginsberg, one of the nation's preeminent election lawyers. Perhaps Mr. Ginsberg is telling a joke, or perhaps he is explaining to them the reason for the delay, as best as he can gather.
Straw Poll Results Delayed Due To Voting Machine Malfunction
AMES -- The announcement of tonight's straw poll results has been delayed due to what one informed source says was a voting machine malfunction. About 4,500 ballots had to be re-run. We are waiting....
AMES: A Low Turnout: About 14,000
Campaign officials estimate that around 14,000 Iowans cast straw ballots today. That's about sixty percent of the 23,500 who voted in 1999. So, turnout is clearly low. But that's not surprising, given that three major candidates refused to attend.
That year, Texas Gov. George W. Bush received about 31% of the votes cast.
Right now, Romney tops the polls in Iowa with anywhere from 26% to 30%, depending on the polls.
The 14,000 is a solid guestimate...the actual number may be a bit higher or a bit lower.
AMES: Intermission And Sweat
AMES -- The speaking program has ended. There is three hours of a goodly nothing to do. The results will be unveiled at 7:00 CT.
The parking lots emptied by about a third, with more and more folks trickling out. Still, thousands of souls are braving the heat, picking over bar-b-q leftovers and chugging down what must be gallons of water. Kids are clustered around Sam Brownback's snow cone machine. Both Brownback and Mitt Romney rented identical rock climbing walls.
The press is mostly indoors, waiting, cutting packages for local newscasts, writing the guts of their stories or calling their spouses. One exception is the New York Times's Michael Luo, who is always interviewing Iowans; at this point, he must have interviewed, oh, about 40 percent of everyone here. He doesn't seem to sweat either -- perhaps there is some special cream that the Times gives to its young political correspondents.
Teenagers and young adults are ambling around the grounds, stopping to see if any of the outside groups that spent thousands to purchase space here have any more free stuff.
The candidates themselves are cloistered either in air-conditioned office space or in their tricked out recreational vehicles.
ED in 08 has the only tent where lines of people snake out towards the roadway. But that's probably because they trucked in what most be a quarter of a ton of delicious ice cream -- three flavors to choose from! ED in 08 is also auctioning off an i-Pod and other paraphernalia. For those who showed up wearing dark clothing -- ahem, Mr. Romney -- the free ED tee-shirts are cotton and white.
The ONE campaign, the non-partisan pro-health anti-poverty lobby, proved its special status once again. They were the only non-Republican group alloted time in the speaking program. In effect, they sponsored the national anthem.
Also seen at Ames: the chronic disease coalition folks. The NRA. The Fairtax folks. The American Medical Association. Some guy who wrote a book about the Woodrow Wilson White House. The Iowa Democratic Party. Voting machine technology protesters. Paramedics on golf carts. The state home school coalition.
AMES: A Small Presence For Fred Thompson
An independent group of Fred Thompson allies raised $10,000 for the right to occupy a ten foot tabling space at the straw poll. They don't have a sign, but they do have a loudspeaker. It's attached to a recording of Thompson's stump speech.
AMES: Sam Brownback's Stump Speech
Key lines:
"The road through to the White House goes through Iowa, and I'm not skipping it, I'm going right through Iowa."
"I had a dream: that the son of a Kansas farmer becomes president of the United States."
"I have never voted for a tax increase and I will certainly never sign one."
"The best place to raise a child is between a mom and a dad bonded together for life."
Biggest applause line: "We should be able to say one nation Under God and the flag salute and not be worried about anybody suing us."
Iowa Dems Dispute Fox Report About Jan. 5 Caucuses
National and state Democratic officials are pushing back on a Fox News report that IA and NH leaders are considering a deal where Iowa would hold its caucus on Jan. 5. and NH would set its date for Jan. 12.
"That's just not true," Carrie Giddins, the Iowa Democratic Party's communications director tells me. There have been no discussions with New Hampshire yet, and Chet Culver, Iowa's governor, intends for New Hampshire to set its date before Iowa decides what to do.
"We are not anywhere near setting another date," says Giddins. "No other date has come up because we have no idea what New Hampshire is going to do."
As Giddins was talking to me about the Fox News story, correspondent Carl Cameron was right around the corner, asking Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley about the calendar shifts. Grassley hinted that the Iowa legislature should think seriously about getting rid of a mandate to hold the caucus eight days before any other contest.
"I'd rather have it a day before New Hampshire's rather than in December," he said.
Separately, a senior Democratic official concedes that the Jan. 5/Jan 12 scenario is a possibility... although it is one of many scenarios Iowa's governor is considering.
AMES: 11,000 Have Voted As Of 2:00 p.m.
The Iowa Republican Party has informed the presidential campaign that approximately 11,000 GOPers voted in the straw poll as of 2:00 p.m..
That would suggest that turnout might not meet the expectation of the state party.
Voting closes at 6:00 pm CST.
We'll know the results at 7:00 pm ET.
AMES: Mike Huckabee's Stump Speech
Key lines:
"A Republican in Arkansas feels about as out of place as Michael Vick at the Westminister Dog Show.
"I can't buy you. I don't have the money. I can't even rent you. But today, the straw poll is a day that change all of that. The straw poll is not about electing a straw man. It's giving the voters of Iowa a chance to prove that they are mature voters.... who understand that they are buying the cereal, not just the box."
Biggest applause line: "We need to go to a fair tax that is so simple a seven year old running a lemonade stand could understand it."
AMES: Tom Tancredo Stump Speech
Key lines:
"[Speaking of an English-speaking Ivory Coast-born cabdriver he met in Detroit: "That's exactly the kind of person we want here. Someone who wants to be an American."
"[On immigration: Washington has failed to do its job and let this problem fester for over 40 years."
"Political correctness can cost us our lives."
Biggest applause line: "This is our culture. Fight for it!" This is our nation. Take it back. God bless you!"
Blooper: Quoting Yakov Smirnoff.
AMES: Ron "McLovin" Paul's Stump Speech
** -- the "Ron Paul" shouts of his 200-person long supporter train made it tough for Laura Ingraham to finish her introduction. The Ron Paul Revolution was led by two guys in revolutionary period dress.
Key lines: "Our campaign is all about freedom, prosperity and peace!"
"You cannot have freedom without life. We must preserve all life if we expect to protect the individual liberty of each and every one of us and that means the unborn as well."
"I think 9/11 quite frankly could have been prevented if we had had a lot more respect for the second amendment."
"We were not meant to be the policeman of the world."
"This country is returning to tyranny."
Biggest applause line: "We must get rid of the 16th amendment and the I.R.S."
Blooper: That tie. Ugly, green and striped.
AMES: Romney's Stump Speech
Key lines:
"Over the past seven months I've here, I've done over 200 events and my sons have visited 99 counties and I'll you, I love Iowa."
"Change begins in Iowa and change begins today."
"To make our economy strong, I want to make sure we welcome legal immigrants into our economy and end illegal immigration."
"I want to strengthen marriage. One of the most important ways to do that is to tell them that before they have babies, they get married. I want to clean up... moral pollution. What they see on the TV and the Internet."
Biggest applause line: "It's gotten popular as of late for a lot of people to be critical of the president. Nobody is perfect. But let's just remember: He has kept us safe these last six years.
Narrative metaphor: the three-legged school.
Style points: Romney wasn't wearing a tie! He wasn't even wearing a dress shirt. But his polo shirt was, for goodness sakes, black. It's 100 degrees outside.
Minor blooper: he said "green beans" when he meant "soy beans" although he corrected himself.
AMES: The Program Begins
Right now, about 10,000 Iowa Republicans are reclining in red, hard-backed chairs here in the Hilton Coliseum. They have two choices for the rest of the afternoon. They can sit through a five hour program of musical acts and videos interspersed with candidate speeches or they can brave the 100 degree heat.
The NRA's ubiquitous Wayne LaPierre was the first formal speaker -- he's always the first speaker at events like these -- and regaled the Iowans with tales about how the NRA defeated the gun-hating left and the gun-detesting media. (Newt Gingrich was in the hall but he was ignoring LaPierre, holding court instead with a media scrum.)
Talk show host Laura Ingraham is the host. She made an obligatory crack at the New York Times, sucked up to the audience, bashed Washington, D.C., and set a lightly partisanal tone for the rest of the afternoon. "I want to welcome you to the Iowa edition of American Idol," she said.
AMES: Dirty Tricks and Mormon Bashing
Mitt Romney's national political director, Carl Forti, said that he's received reports that Romney supporters are being telephoned and told that the buses transporting them to the straw poll have been canceled; it's false, of course -- the buses are running on time. The campaign is keeping track of their progress with a full phone bank that they've set up near the Hilton coliseum.
*****
Inevitably, anti-Mormon literature shows up at major Republican events, and a Council Bluffs, Iowa-based group called Christians for Truth is passing out a pamphlet entitled "Would Christians Vote For Mitt Romney???"
Here's an excerpt:
"We strongly believe that Jesus Christ, if he were alive in the flesh and voted, would never vote for Mitt Romney under any circumstances. Mitt Romney represents Mormonism which is counterfeit Christianity, a cult."
The pamphlet also bashes non-participants: Rudy Giuliani (for having "THREE WIVES, a notorious AFFAIR with his current wife:".... Newt Gingrich "AFFAIR, DIVORCE, ANOTHER AFFAIR, A SECOND DIVORCE," John McCain "AFFAIR, DIVORCE," and Fred Thompson, who had "TWO WIVES with his first child conceived out of wedlock."
The acceptable candidates: Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, and Huckabee."
AMES: Who Has The Most?
The program is set to begin in an hour, and after a brief stroll through the parking lots and public spaces, it seems to this observer that Gov. Mitt Romney has the most identified supporters, followed by Sen. Sam Brownback and then Ron "Big Love" Paul.
The Romney campaign is keeping tabs on everyone it has bused in. Each was given a bus credential with their name, bus departure time and assigned bus number (in the case of a straw poll attendee Linda Barton, she was given a choice of three buses leaving from Johnson Co. at 3:30 pm.)
AMES: Setting the Scene
John Cox has a giant inflatable balloon. Ron Paul's campaign sign is hoisted up by a forklift. His volunteers wear teeshirts emblazoned with the slogan "Every generation needs a new Revolution" The "evol" is transposed to spell "Love." (not war.) The Fair Tax folks have cooling fans. The Mike Huckabee camp has branded water and realistic expectations, courtesy of Sarah Huckabee, his daughter. I asked her, "How many people do you expect to show up?" "Well, I didn't ask so I could say I wouldn't know," she said.
"But you've bought tickets for people, right?"
"Yes, and we'll buy more if we need too."
As she chatted with some reporters, her mother Janet was on a photographic expedition of the rest of the ISU athletic complexes. I caught her snapping a picture of Sam Brownback's RV. (Truth be told, Huckabee's RV is pretty sweet too."
The former Arkansas governor himself was tuning up a subwoofer on stage. His band, Capitol Offense, would start momentarily. Three camera crews -- two from foreign countries and one from Arkansas waited at the apron of the stage.
Mitt Romney's -- well, you've have to call it a fair -- has the best location. It's equidistant between all three straw poll voting locations. It's divided into three areas. One, for kids, features six carnival rides. Then there's a snazzy stage adorned with Romney banners and scrims. His campaign has rented what must be the largest tent in all of Iowa. They're expecting thousands... although stubborn Tim Albrecht, Romney's Iowa press director, just won't give us the number of buses the Romney team has rented -- it exceeds 150 -- but we don't really need that. (Matt Rhoades, Romney's national communications director, did offer up a competing nugget: Romney has 250 volunteers on premises.
Oh, and if geography is destiny, Romney, Sam Brownback and Ron Paul are in peachy shape. Romney's tents occupy the George W. Bush space from 1999; Brownback is located where Steve Forbes's riches bought him a second place finish that year, and Paul's tent is closest to the site where Phil Gramm (helped by a younger John Weaver) surprised the 1995 field to tie with Bob Dole.
August 10, 2007
Iowa On January 5?
Fox News's Carl Cameron has a scoop that jibes with the vibes everyone is sending off:
The first possible deal has emerged to solve the calendar crisis looming over the 2008 nomination process. With South Carolina Republicans already moving their primary to January 19th, Fox News has learned that officials in Iowa and New Hampshire in both parties and both state governments have begun discussing the possibility of Iowa’s caucus occurring Saturday, January 5th, and New Hampshire’s primary occurring Saturday, Jan 12th -- in order to accommodate state laws that require Iowa to go first, and a week long buffer for New Hampshire before any similar election.
Guest Post: The Clintons And The Gay Community
Joshua Green is a senior editor of the Atlantic.
Darn. I was hoping to hop the plane to Ames and shirk my promised post, but Marc has (shrewdly!) called me out publicly, so I’ll add this bit of context to last night’s Democratic forum.
One of the major fault lines in the gay community is over the Clintons—something I was surprised to learn while reporting a piece earlier this year on Tim Gill , by several magnitudes the biggest gay donor in the country and—like Melissa Etheridge, apparently—no great fan of the Clintons. This accounts, I think, for the tenor of some of the questions directed at Clinton last night.
The debate essentially boils down to whether or not you think the Clinton administration was a net positive or a net negative for the gay community. Two quotes from my Gill article do a pretty good job of characterizing the two camps. The first is from Patrick Guerriero, a Republican who works for Gill’s political organization, the second from Jeff Soref, a philanthropist for gay causes and (former, I think) DNC appointee.
Guerriero:
“When [Bill] Clinton was elected, everyone thought there would be this epiphany on gay rights. Instead, the only two major pieces of legislation were a disaster: ‘Don’t ask, don’t tell’ and the Defense of Marriage Act. The experience of the ’90s taught us that there is no magic president who’s going to fix everything.”
Soref:
“Clinton broke the silence about the AIDS epidemic. He told gay people we were part of his vision for America. He directed federal money to AIDS research. He gave us an AIDS czar and a liaison in the White House and an executive order banning discrimination in the federal workforce. He invited us to the table and gave us a place in the Democratic Party.”
A couple things to think about. Hillary Clinton has gone about as far as Hillary Clinton will go in disavowing her earlier positions on major gay issues. As Linda Douglass points out in this helpful National Journal article , Hillary, like the rest of the Democratic field, now supports repealing “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” and says she would repeal the federal provision of the Defense of Marriage Act (Obama would go further and repeal the whole thing). But as many people like to point out—most recently, to me, Tucker Carlson on his show yesterday (Linda and I were his “panel”)—Hillary and the other first- and second-tier candidates do not support gay marriage, so why are many gays supporting them?
The answer is political pragmatism. The Human Rights Campaign made a big push on gay marriage in 2004 that was politically disastrous (The HRC has become as much a fault line as, well, HRC, as Andrew will happily tell you). So a kind of détente has arisen: HRC and other gay organizations don’t push too hard on the marriage question, and Democrats support almost all of the rest of what they’re asking for: a federal hate-crimes law, civil unions, repealing Don’t Ask, etc.
Of course, not everyone wants in on this deal, as Etheridge and a few others make clear. But that hasn’t stopped Clinton from making serious headway with the gay community, despite a few tense moments like the ones last night. So don’t be misled. One of the underappreciated stories of this campaign is how effectively Clinton has shored up endorsements and support, and in few places is this truer than the gay community. The impression I’ve been given is that HRC’s eventual endorsement of Clinton is a mere formality.
JOSHUA GREEN
The Romneys At the State Fair And All The Usual Adorableness
DES MOINES -- Mitt Romney was so late to the Iowa Pork Producers' pavilion at the state fair, he was nearly early for his next event. Serendipitously, he made up for his tardiness by providing news photographers a picture-perfect photo opportunity.
The chops he was supposed to flip were a little overcooked, but Romney donned an apron, thrust his flipping hand forward, grabbed the utensil, and began to toss the pork with gusto. Lest the Democratic Party find this amusing, note that Romney only flopped once -- a chop slid off the greasy flipper and fell to the floor. Automatically, Romney scooped down to pick it up and was about to put it back on the stove when -- "No No No! Don't put it back on the stove" -- he was interrupted in the nick of time by the chefs.
Family in tow, Romney walked into the covered pagoda to find about a hundred Iowans munching on the other white meat. "Well, you can serve them some tea and water," a waitress told him. "All right, let's do that," Romney said. He grabbed two pitcher and went from table to table looking for empty glasses. Twice he ran out of drinks and walked back for refills. His advance staff tried to nudge him in the direction of his next stop but Romney wouldn't have it: he checked every single cup in the entire pavillion and wound up refilling about twelve of them.
His family -- wife Ann, three of his sons and about four of his grandchildren, waited in an enclosed miniature animal kingdom a short walk away. Romney strode in, scooped up his adorable grandson Parker Mitt Romney and went straight to the cows.
"Lambee, Lambee," Parker mewed, pointing his arm at a baby lamb.
"Ok, let's go see lambee."
What followed was an unquestionably adorable moment featuring Mitt, Parker and a baby lamb, but the professional photographers crowded the mammals, and this column can't offer a description. I did try to bait Eric Fehrnstrom, Romney's long-time counselor. "A lamb. There's symbolism in that, huh...." Fehrnstom: "I'm not going to touch that one."
Boom. Twenty seconds later, Romney we were at the young chicks; he pet one -- gingerly, Parker reached his hand down and his grandfather guided it toward the downy back. Jackson smiled.
Romney's family seems quite comfortable interacting with the press; his sons and wife Ann know many of us by name, and they offer a friendly greeting when they see us and never present themselves as unapproachable. That makes the Romneys unique among all the other spouses and offspring of the candidates, save for Elizabeth Edwards and the brood. In the course of preparing a National Journal article on Romney, one of his top campaign advisers told me last year that the Romneys had no collectively antipathy toward the press and that Mitt Romney knew that his ever-present family would add some give to his sometimes starchy demeanor. The former attribute is, again, unusual: every other spouse of every other major candidate (sans Elizabeth Edwards) seems to believe that the press has it in for their husbands; that the press looks for nothing but conflict; that the press are unwilling to judge their spouses by mortal standards. (Yes, this includes, by observation and some reporting, the former president.)
A Third Magazine Cover For The Candidate The Press Loves...
Well, we can't turn Barack Obama into Corbin Bleu and we can't make Hillary Clinton into Vanessa Hudgens, but really, do we need another glossy magazine article about John Edwards? The magazine business says... a-yup.
Rolling Stone has a major profile of Sen. Edwards this month, and the editors saw fit to place the article teaser right next to a beefcake photo of Zac Efron, who stars in Disney's High School Musical franchise. Apparently, Mr. Efron is the tween it boy of the moment.
That makes three the number of magazines that have run major profiles of John Edwards. Men's Vogue got Annie Leibovitz to photograph Edwards and the author rhapsodized about his charms and rugged populism.
Perhaps uncomfortably, given Elizabeth Edwards's recent remarks about her husband's race, Esquire wonders whether a white guy can still be elected president.
Now comes Rolling Stone. These are MSM pubs, really.
Perhaps Hillary Clinton can hold up a picture of the Rolling Stone at the next debate and say that she wouldn't dare let a magazine call her a "liberal" on the cover. And come to think of it. Zac Efron does look a little like a young Johnny E.
AMES: The Subplots
Who wins, obviously, is the major question, followed shortly thereafter by which candidate feeds reporters the best grub. But there are other interesting subplots, in no particular order.
1. Tom Tancredo -- where he finishes, what he says.
2. Does Tommy Thompson finish second? If not, he's out.
3. The war of attrition between Sen. Sam Brownback and Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee. Kansan and Arkansan. Catholic and Protestant. Comprehensive immigrationalist and comprehensive immigrationalist. In many ways, they're really quite similar. Based on anecdotes alone, the betting money is that Brownback has a better campaign organization and can expect, thanks to reliable stalwarts like pro-life activist Chuck Hurley, a solid turnout. But Huckabee has been working heavily Christian towns hard, and several Brownback rivals are spreading some tough (and arguably misleading) opposition research about him.
4. Newt Gingrich -- he'll have a booth in Ames, and everybody knows his name. It's hard to imagine how he plays a role, but he's Newt: you never know.
5. Romney v. Brownback -- Romney has finally begun to skirmish with Brownback on the margins, much to Brownback's delight and probably to Romney's chagrin. Have any of Brownback's criticism made a dent in Romney's support? If so, how will we know?
6. Rudy Giuliani -- remember, he's been on the air here recently with radio spots and just finished a multi-day tour. Mitt Romney has turned to a direct confrontation with Giuliani over recent days; the Giuliani team suspects it's because Romney does not want to be lumped in with the second and third tier candidates who are competing at Ames.
7. The Democrats -- how many times do the candidates mention Hillary Clinton (or Barack Obama) and what do they say? Do they trot out the old standards? Or have they refined their arguments?
8. Ron Paul... and this legal challenge. Apparently, the state party is using Diebold machines. And Ron Paul also wants them to count paper ballots.
9. Whether Mitt Romney pulls campaign manager Beth Myers aside and asks whether they _really_ had to spend _all_ this money? (To which Myers will reply: "Yes, Governor.") Ron Kaufman will then join the conversation and start by saying, "Look it, Governor..."
10. The presence of outside interests... Ed in '08 ... the Democratic state party ... the ONE campaign..... Redeem the Vote....
11. This one is for the media folks: which Iowa reporter becomes the next national superstar? (Yepsen, Zeleny, Glover, Beaumont are excluded.) My guess: O. Kay Henderson.
When LOGO announced the first ever television forum of gay and lesbian candidates, two thoughts came to mind. Either Democratic presidential candidates no longer feared the “gay friendly” label, or they did -- but it didn’t matter because (a) the gay rights lobby is too important a constituency to shaft and/or (b) the candidates believe it’s the right thing to do. It’s helpful to look at this debate through two lenses: the hopeful lens of the gay community and the skeptical lens of the pundit who is always peering around the corner at the general election.
Assessing the body language of the candidates to see who was the most comfortable is probably best left to that "expert" who Bill O"Reilly interviews a few times a month, Obama's extreme fluency with the nuance of gay rights issues was married with language that did not seem contrived or out-directed. Perhaps he expresses the worldview of his (younger) generation.
Both Obama and Sen. John Edwards were pressed to explain their stances against gay marriage – that’s the holy grail for many (though by no means all) of the gay community.
Obama was at his best. Though he dipped into the lingua franca at times (“DOMA, strong civil unions”), he refused to condescend to the audience and refused to compromise even as he was questioned fairly sharply: “You’re letting religion own the word marriage,” he was told. His own position was cast as “decidedly old school.”
But why not allow the gays to use the word “marriage?” Obama: “Semantics might be important to some. What I’m concerned about is making sure legal rights are available to all people.” Is the gay rights movement the same as the civil rights movement? Obama: “I’m always very cautious about getting into comparisons of victimology.” That said, the brunt of his answers turned on that very comparison – how he got into politics because “I don’t like people looking down on other people.” There were some questions he didn’t precisely answer, but he managed to not answer in such a sophisticated and – to this audience – compassionate way, that it didn’t really matter. It’s hard to say for sure, but it didn’t seem as if any answer will pose a problem for him later.
John Edwards, too, was strong: he recalled a recent visit to a Los Angeles home for out gay kids whose parents kicked them out. He threw in an Ann Coulter mention. He compared the experience of gay Americans with the experience of blacks in the South. He denied Bob Shrum’s claim that he ever said he wasn’t comfortable around gay people. He said forthrightly that he still opposed gay marriage but agreed with Obama about a “strong” array of civil rights for gays. He said he would accept and support a staff member who changed genders. He said kids should be taught about homosexuality although he wasn’t prepared to say what grade level curriculum should include it.
Dennis Kucinich was and is beloved by the gay community.
Bill Richardson seemed a little bit out of sorts but survived.
That University of Iowa Poll: Don't Bother?
That's the verdict of the polling expert this column trusts, Mark Blumenthal.
First, the survey used a sample drawn from a list of Iowa households listed in telephone directories. As such, it has a potential coverage problem because it misses Iowans with unlisted telephone numbers. The survey screened to interview 907 self-reported registered voters.
Second, "because of a programming glitch," Redlawski said he "cannot distinguish the ‘no registered voters' from other refusals." However, we know that as of the fall of 2006, 84% of Iowa's adults were registered voters (1.9 million registered voters divided by 2.26 million voting age adults).
Based on that statistic, we can make the following assumptions about the percentage of adults represented by the various subgroups reported on for this survey:
425 Democratic Caucus Goers = 40% of adults
319 "Most Likely" Democratic Caucus Goers = 29% of adults
306 Republican Caucus Goers = 28% of adults
223 "Most Likely Republican Caucus Goers = 21% of adults
In short, the various subgroups of likely caucus goers in the U. of Iowa poll represent a much broader slice of Iowa voters than the recent ABC/Washington Post survey or the Des Moines Register survey from last year.
August 9, 2007
Hillary Clinton Faces Tough Questions At HRC Forum
(More on this forum will be posted tomorrow morning.)
Hillary Clinton, whose husband has a less than stellar reputation in many precincts of the gay community, was peppered with tough questions at tonight's gay rights forum in Los Angeles.
Rocker Melissa Etheridge, a moderator, told Clinton that gays felt "thrown under the bus" by her husband's administration in the 1990s. By this she meant the Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy on gays in the military and President Clinton's support of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA).
"All the great promises that were made to us were broken," Etheridge said. "It is many years later now. Are we going to be left behind like we were before?"
"I don't see it the way you describe that I respect your feelings about it," Clinton responded. The administration, the president, the vice president "did the best they could."
Etheridge: "Why not be a leader now?"
Clinton: "I think I am the leader now. But to not only talk about laws as important as they are, but to really try to change attitudes to persuade people that they should be more open, more respectful. If I were sitting where I were sitting with all you have gone through ... I'm sure I would feel the same way."
On gay marriage, HRC president Joe Solomnese asked her about her opposition. “I prefer to think about it as being very positive about civil unions,” Clinton said. But she said she respected the “advocacy” the gay community is “waging on behalf of marriage.”
Clinton called the repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell “one of my highest priorities.” But she defended the policy as written – it was an “advance” that was poorly implemented, she said.
Some interesting back story: The sponsoring Human Rights Campaign – HRC – has occasionally been criticized for being in the pocket of Hillary Rodham Clinton (HRC) – broadly, the Clinton donor community, which includes many prominent gays and lesbians. Solomnese went out of his way to be ginger with Clinton, but he did not hold back. (My colleague Josh Green promised me a post about this tomorrow.)
AMES: On TV, Romney Offers A Ride To The Straw Polls
Free rides, Romney says, if you call an 800 number. This ad began airing yesterday.
AMES: Rumor V. Fact
Rumor: Sen. John McCain's Iowa field staff is quietly helping Sen. Sam Brownback recruit supporters for the Ames straw poll. The goal is to drive down Mitt Romney's margin of victory. Similarly, Rudy Giuliani's campaign is quietly helping Mike Huckabee -- for exactly the same reason.
Truth: Untrue, although free lance operators may have arrived at the same strategic insight. There's no official help flowing from either McCain's campaign or Giuliani's campaign.
South Carolina Moves: Some Questions And Tenative Answers
Could Florida move up even further?. Florida's decision to hold its primary on Jan. 29 was the proximate cause of SC's decision to move. Yes -- the war of attrition could continue. But unlike South Carolina, where the state party can change the date whenever it wants, Florida's legislature has to pass legislation, again.
Could South Carolina move again? Says SC GOP chairman Katon Dawson: "South Carolina has the ability to move and we certainly move, but I don't see a scenario where that happens."
Why did Dawson act now? The Republican National Committee set an early September deadline for states to submit their delegate selection plans.
What will the South Carolina Democratic Party do? Still unclear. It has options but chairperson Carol Khare Fowler was instrumental in setting this new calendar in still-drying concrete. Shes being pulled into two directions: the national party doesn't want her to move and her state constituencies might demand it.
What will the RNC chairman do? He'll cut half the delegates from each state that holds early contests and try to resist the pressure of the eventual nominee to seat them. But the RNC will find it hard to enforce its own rules.
Does Howard Dean have a trump card? Sort of. If New Hampshire selects delegates in December, he can refuse to sit the entire state delegation. Iowa has an out: it technically won't choose its convention delegates until later in 2008. Note: Florida's state legislature has to change the date, while South Carolina's GOP can move on its own. Right now, the DNC plans to penalize any state holding delegate selection contests before Feb. 5.
Would the Democratic nominee exert pressure on Dean to sit all the delegates? Yes. It's a conflict of powers. Dean has de jure power to refuse to sit down and control over the convention's credential operation. But the nominee has precedent and implied power, and neither Dean nor the nominee would want a public relations fight.
Which candidates benefits the most from these changes? The non-frontrunners, clearly. As Dawson said today: "It gives a candidate like Mike Huckabee a chance." That is, candidates can survive a crash in New Hampshire ( a la Ronald Reagan in 1980) and technically recover. In theory, since Rudy Giuliani's strategy is predicated on a swing from Florida to California, he has to reconfigure some of his plans. But while an elongated calendar reduces the amount of influence that each specific contest exerts on the next, it's not clear that losing the first three contests spread out over the next month and a half would be advisable.
Will Katon Dawson be the next GOP chairman? Unlikely. He has angered the major Republican campaigns in his state.
Will we be in this mess in 2012? Unclear. There will be moves at both party conventions to change the rules again, but so long as Republican Parties remain incorporated entities in relation to the RNC and the DNC functions more as an umbrella organization for its state parties, an enforceable, agreed upon solution is unlikely. That said, the two parties have begun to talk about a joint proposal.
Clinton and Obama Gain Ground In Iowa
Maybe it's just the heat, but something happening in Iowa. Two Iowa polls of solid methodology -- last week's Post/ABC and today's, released by the University of Iowa, show a virtual dead heat among the Democratic presidential candidates.
Clinton does better when the sample is enlarged to include non just likely caucus voters but Dems statewide, proof for the theory that she has the largest available base. John Edwards maintains a within-the-margin lead among likely caucus goers. His support is dropping.
Why? One possibility is that Iowa Democrats are beginning to see the race as a contest between, increasingly, Obama and Clinton, with Edwards on the verge of losing his status as a frontrunning contender.
The Clinton-Obama exchanges have dominated the last two debates and certainly have accounted for most of the press coverage. Obama might be helped by his steady television ad schedule in Iowa, too. Clinton, who has seen her lead in most national polls rise a bit, isn't on the air at all, so her campaign has every reason to treat these latest two polls as a sign of strength.
There's more good news for Bill Richardson: he continues his slow climb.
Obama seems to have Mitt Romney's problem. To wit: his standing in national polling is going southward and his standing in key state polls is trending in the opposite direction. The audiences are different; Democrats nationwide, who rely mostly on national press coverage for their information these days, could be forgiven if they thought Obama had a rough couple of weeks. The press thought his foreign policy answers were green, and his own ties to lobbyists have come under heavy scrutiny.
Democrats in Iowa, who (in theory) are paying somewhat closer attention and who've gotten to see the candidate during this period, might look past the press coverage and find they like the contrasts Obama is drawing.
But his rise is not coming at the expense of Clinton's fall.
** The only dynamic worth paying attention to in national polling right now is trends; all other things being equal, a trend has some significance; the data points themselves have virtually none at all.
AMES: Not So Fast, Sen. McCain
We know Sen. John McCain won't show at Ames, but this morning, Mr. McCain took his skedaddling one step further: he claims he never intended to participate in the straw poll.
Well, his former campaign manager, Terry Nelson, and former chief strategist, John Weaver, would disagree. And when McCain announced his Iowa state leadership team, here is how the campaign's press release characterized their expertise: "The influential state leadership team will continue to build Senator McCain's Iowa organization in preparation for the Iowa Straw Poll and Iowa Caucus."
Travel Update
Headed to Iowa today for the two-day lead-up to the Ames straw poll.
South Carolina Moves: What's At Stake
Politicos in five states will watch today's press conference in Concord closely. Several cable networks will carry it live -- it's that important. Also watching: the corporate travel departments of every major newspaper, magazine and news network.
Balls in the air include:
** The date of South Carolina's Republican primary. Reliable Republican sources say Katon Dawson is ready to move the date to Jan. 19, but others think Jan. 22 is more likely. Dawson is keeping to himself, and even the senior managers on presidential campaigns are being kept out of the loop. This angers them, to some degree.
** Whether New Hampshire will announce its date today. Secretary of State Bill Gardner will appear with Dawson but may not have anything to say.
** Whether Iowa acts immediately; Gov. Chet Culver said yesterday that "bottom line," Iowa would hold its caucuses first. Since New Hampshire has blocked off the week of the 8th through the 12th, Iowa might have to prepare a caucus for mid-December.
** But hold on. A mid-December caucus, followed by three weeks of noting (or a holiday) will dilute the forward force Iowa exerts on the rest of the calendar.
** What the South Carolina Democrats do, if anything. Chair Carol Khare Fowler is keeping a close hold on her options. The DNC's calendar commission gave her an earlier date, but the presidential campaigns will pressure her to move with the GOP. If she does, the state will be penalized by the DNC.
** The reaction of the Republican National Committee. Yesterday, communications director Lisa Miller told me, "“The RNC rules adopted at the convention in 2004 are clear and will be applied equally to every state party." That means that South Carolina will be penalized. Long-time rules committee veterans want a floor fight at the convention about the calendar rules, and they'll probably get one.
** The frustration of Florida: their move to Jan. 29 arguably forced Dawson's hand.
** The frustration of Nevada. It's not the case to say that their caucus has just lost a considerable amount of influence.
August 8, 2007
News: South Carolina GOP To Hold Primary On Jan. 19 -- Will New Hampshire Move To The 8th?
Word from Columbia and Manchester today is that the South Carolina Republican Party has decided to schedule its presidential primary for Jan. 19. (Rob Godfrey, an SCGOP spokesman, would not confirm the date, but sources close to the party said they've been given guidance about the 19th. Update: The State confirms it.)
For days, rumors have been circulating about a secret deal between SC GOP chief Katon Dawson and the New Hampshire Secretary of State, Bill Gardner, wherein Gardner would move his state's primary eight days before South Carolina. Maybe. Gardner told the Manchester Union Leader this morning that he had not spoken with Dawson. (A back room deal would anger almost everyone.)
Some New Hampshire sources are hearing that Gardner intends to hold the primary on either Monday, Jan. 7 or Tuesday, Jan. 8. But Gardner keeps his own council, so no one really knows.
The two will appear together in Concord tomorrow, leading to speculation that Gardner is ready set the sacred New Hampshire primary date as well.
Most likely, Gardner has decided to Dawson's move because it gives him a pretext to move New Hampshire earlier and preserve its first in the nation status. Additionally, a joint South Carolina primary on the 19th might obliterate the influence of the Nevada Democratic caucuses. Gardner can now say, rightfully, that a real primary -- South Carolina's -- and not a measly little caucus -- persuaded him to change the date.
South Carolina Democrats might not move: they've scheduled their primary in South Carolina for Jan. 29.
So -- watch for New Hampshire to potentially schedule its primary on Jan. 11 or earlier. On the DNC's calendar, it's slated for Jan. 22.
The Iowa caucuses may move, too -- they have their own seven day rule about being first.
The SC Dems may move.
The Michigan Dems and GOP may move.
Florida -- the thorn in Dawson's hide -- still has its primaries scheduled for Jan. 29 -- the date of the old SC GOP contest.
News: Bill Lacy Named Thompson Campaign Manager
Word out of McLean and Nashville today is that Bill Lacy, a Tennessee political strategist who worked with Sen. Fred Thompson during his Senate campaigns, will be named campaign manager today. Randy Enwright will be the national political director, and former Sen. Spence Abraham will be the campaign's chairman.
Mr. Lacy has one major plus: he has been a Thompson confidante for many years. He managed Thompson's 94 campaign and is directs the Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics at the University of Kansas.
An official announcement is expected momentarily.
News: AFL-CIO To Release Unions; No Single Endorsement
Word from the AFL-CIO executive council meeting today is that the labor federation has given its member unions the green light to endorse whoever they want. No candidate will receive the federation's unified endorsement.
2008 Democratic Race Rankings
NBC News political director Chuck Todd and I present our final Democratic rankings for August.
Hillary Rodham Clinton's command of the field is holding even as Barack Obama confronts her worldview and John Edwards gets angrier and angrier. There are signs, however, that some flux is right around the corner.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Democratic Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Republican
rankings.
Number 1 -- Hillary Clinton -- They'll never admit that their dust-up with Obama over meeting with rogue leaders was a minor setback. That said, a day doesn't go by that she doesn't look like a stronger general election candidate, mainly because of how she's always got her eye on the general when answering debate questions like the one in question. No member of the C.W. chattering class believed she'd be this strong in general election matchups this early in the process. She seems more unbeatable every day, which is why you should expect both Obama and Edwards to stop mincing words and take near-daily shots at the front-runner. She's on such a roll right now, one can't help but wonder if she's peaking too soon. Almanac Profile
2. Barack Obama -- The Clinton folks are convinced that the Obama campaign knows he made two gaffes in the last two weeks, but because they feared the "inexperienced" tag might take hold, they had no choice but to stand their ground based on what he said. We'll never know who's right, but the Obama camp does deserve credit for not being shy about taking on the Georgetown set on issues of foreign affairs. Six months ago, we thought Obama was dying to win the Georgetown primary; now, clearly, he doesn't care. And the recent Post-ABC poll showing him tied for the lead in Iowa shows that the campaign's early TV advertising may be having a desired effect.
3. John Edwards -- Meet Mr. Angry! He's not going to take it any more! Edwards gets better every day in the role of angry populist, but we can't help but wonder if eventually his "no more Mr. nice guy" routine is going to rub Iowa voters the wrong way. Edwards' strength in '04 was that everyone seemed to like the guy. Usually, voters don't like angry populists; they may respect them, but like? Not usually. Still, Edwards needs to keep the hot rhetoric up if only to make sure the press doesn't get too carried away with Clinton v. Obama. The real loser out of the Clinton-Obama spatwas Edwards. It showed how easily he could be ignored.
Supporters of Alan Keyes plan to attend the Iowa Straw Poll Aug. 11, to get Keyes' name before the public as a possible Republican presidential candidate.
"We Need Alan Keyes for President," an organization of grassroots volunteers conducting a petition drive to draft Keyes, will hand out literature, donation forms, and sign-up sheets and show video clips of the former Reagan administration diplomat.
Keyes — who in 2000 drew 14 percent in the Iowa Caucus and averaged 16 percent in his best ten states during the presidential primaries — says he is open to the possibility of running, if enough support exists at the grassroots for his candidacy.
You know you want to see him debate Mitt Romney.
The Gremlins Of McLean, Virginia
It's not just the elves who have broken into Fred Thompson's website and turned it into an exploratory committee website.
Check out his biographical sketch. To those who are familiar with Thompson's career and record, some of the rougher edges have been scrubbed away. (It's common: you wouldn't expect Hillary Clinton to brag about her service for the Rose law firm or Rudy Giuliani to recall his bachelor-bunker-ship with a gay couple.)
To wit: Thompson "retired with a 100% pro-life voting record." The arbiter of such things, the National Light To Life committee, gave Thompson a rating of 87% for his service in the 105th Congress, 78% for his service in the 106th, and 33 percent for his service in the 107th. (Search for yourself.) The caveat here is that two of the three NRLC scored votes were about campaign finance reform, and Thompson did vote the correct way on the one piece of legislation dealing with abortion on military reservations.
Thompson also brags about the campaign finance hearings he convened in 1996 to investigate. Actually, let's go back to National Right to Life. Thompson subpoenaed reams of internal documents. They were not happy. Republicans at the time did not judge Thompson's committee a success, and, in fact, when interviewing Republicans who knew Thompson in the Senate, his inability to expose Clintonian wrongdoing is one of their chief complaints (aside from the integral role he played in writing and advocating for the McCain-Feingold campaign finance legislation.)
Thompson's bio:
Thompson would return to Tennessee, where he maintained law offices in Nashville and Washington. His practice varied from pro bono work to representing the state of Tennessee and large corporations, such as Westinghouse.
True. He was a well respected trial lawyer.
Thompson's bio:
...
Well, that's where he omits to mention that he served as a federal lobbyist.
August 7, 2007
AFL-CIO Debate: Clinton Earns Loudest Boos, Biggest Applause
A hometown crowd cheered Sen. Barack Obama as he volleyed with his Democratic rivals over his judgment and experience during tonight's AFL-CIO debate in Chicago. But it was Sen. Clinton who, in what might be a metaphor for the entire race, earned the loudest jeers and the most sustained applause.
The jibes against Obama came from all corners -- from moderator Keith Olbermann, who wondered whether there was political calculation involved in Obama's decision to vote against a war supplemental, to Chris Dodd, who called Obama's foreign policy views reckless, from Dennis Kucinich, who noted that Obama regularly voted to fund the war, and from Hillary Clinton, who threw a dart aimed at his core vulnerability.
Just a moment earlier, he said that his critics had little standing to question his words.
"I find it amusing that those who help to authorize and engineer the biggest foreign policy disaster in a generation are now criticizing me for making sure we're on the right battlefield," he said.
Clinton had a line at the ready.
"You can think big, but remember, you shouldn't always say everything you think if you're running for president, because they could have consequences," she said. That drew loud boos.
Earlier, though, Clinton heard appreciative hoots and whistles when she referred to her rivals' criticism and said that "for 15 years, I've stood against the right wing machine and know how to come out stronger. If you want a winner, if you want to take them on, I'm your girl."
After a raucous thirty minutes of questions and answers about foreign policy, the mood abruptly shifted. One by one, union members and displaced workers described their plight to the Democratic candidates.
Rep. Dennis Kucinich said his administration would be known as the "Workers White House." Sen. John Edwards said he would "walk onto the lawn of the White House and say how important labor unions and organized labor is to the future and economic security of this country." He bragged that he had "been with you in the crunch," walking picket lines "200 times" and helping 23 different unions organize workers. Clinton vowed to "be the president who signs the Employee Free Choice Act into law." Obama noted that he worked after college with displaced steelworkers. "Everybody in this stadium knows the work I've done with Illinois labor and that's the kind of work I want to do around the country."
Quick Takes On The Candidates
Obama -- his night, for the most part; a hometown crowd, his audience, his references, his tough talk on immigration, his credible answers on foreign policy and an eloquent verbal essay on baseball and Barry Bonds. One note, though: Obama noted that he met Hank Aaron this weekend; Aaron is a Clinton supporter.
Clinton -- she seemed withdrawn until she pulled out the old standard: she's a Clinton, she's been attacked, she knows how to fight -- what this has to do with labor is unclear -- but it worked, and pulled the crowd around. For the rest of the debate, she seemed a lot more comfortable (in the baking heat), even when she was booed for essentially calling Obama inexperienced and naive. This was not her crowd, and she did very well, all the same.
Biden: he's the Scottie Skiles of the race, serving up assists to, primarily, Hillary Clinton. He really does well in these formats, and he earns the audience's applause. He connects well with the audience; his own illnesses, his wife's death, his long battle for more transportation funding.
John Edwards: The angry man seemed to fall flat at Soldier Field. This time, Edwards couldn't even be the foil. He gave good passion, but he kind of faded to the back; Kucinich outflanked him on labor and Dodd and Biden had legislative accomplishments to back up their speeches. Edwards seemed eager, almost too eager to solicit endorsements, mentioning twice that he had joined 200 picket lines (even on Saturday and Sunday, gracious me).
Kucinich -- the only one of the stage to look the industrial unions in the eyes and promise to withdraw from NAFTA. He was the dirty pop of the race, allowing the crowd to let their protectionist instincts run wild before returning to the more cautious precincts of the rest of the field. Clearly, his best debate.
Dodd -- a solid performance.
Remember, on the night the latest war supplemental was up for a vote, when Clinton and Obama seemed to circle each other on the Senate floor to see how the other would vote before voting themselves? Olbermann asked Obama why he waiting for so long, and Obama defended the substance of his vote.
Then Dodd was asked to explain why he called Obama's foreign policy musings "confusing and confused."
Obama's response: "I find it amusing that those who help to authorize and engineer the biggest foreign policy disaster in a generation are now criticizing me for making sure we're on the right battlefield."
Then Hillary Clinton was given 30 seconds to respond.
"It is a big mistake to telegraph that and destabilize the Musharrif regime which is fighting for its life against Taliban extremist.
Then she said:
"You can think big, but remember, you shouldn't always say everything you think if you're running for president, because they could have consequences."
You would have thought Rex Grossman had just thrown a pick.
The AFL-CIO Forum: HRC Addresses NAFTA
As Chuck Todd said, everything written about Mark Penn (Hillary's chief strategist) and anti-labor work done by his company, is really a proxy for a decade of anger at Bill Clinton's uncompromising support for NAFTA. (In case you missed it, Chuck said on MSNBC earlier that Bill Clinton, in private conversations, has said that he couldn't win the Democratic nomination in this environment; the party had shifted to the left on trade.)
So -- NAFTA -- scrap it or fix it? HRC says fix it.
Richardson doesn't answer, but probably fix it.
Obama: fix it
Joe Biden: fix it
Dodd: fix it
Edwards: fix it
Kucinich: withdraw, baby. Withdraw.
The AFL-CIO Forum: Hillary's Moment
Here comes the frontrunner: unbidden, Hillary Clinton noted how her name has escaped the lips of some of her opponents. Well, she said, "I want a united Democratic party that will stand against the Republicans. For 15 years, I've stood against the right wing machine and knows how to come out stronger. If you want a winner, if you want to take them on, I'm your girl."
It was a cliche moment, a cheap applause line, clearly pre-fabricated, and it really worked. The crowd loved it.
AFL-CIO Forum: A Small Obama Fo-Po Flub
He said he'd call the "president of Canada" and.... well, congratulate him on his promotion, because Canada has a prime minister. Tiny mistake, not important, but it did jump out at me.
The AFL-CIO Forum: If At FIrst...
John Edwards forced Hillary Clinton to defend her lobbyist contributions at YearlyKos, and no one noticed; he was greatly frustrated, and so he's back at the till tonight. We'll see what happens later. He risks permanent foil status.x
"In some ways, it's the way we have to go," Edwards says. "We can't make John black, we can't make him a woman. Those things get you a lot of press, worth a certain amount of fundraising dollars. Now it's nice to get on the news, but not the be all and end all."
Her complaint reminds me of something I hear a lot of Democrats say: to wealthy donors and to the metropolitan press corps, Obama represents the great fulfillment of liberalism. But I've never heard anyone suggest that he is somehow advantaged in this process and a rich white guy in the South is oppressed by his race or gender.
Although, re-rereading Edwards, it seems that she's making a less incendiary (still debatable) point: that Obama (and Clinton) get too much press (unearned media) only because of their race and gender.
Per an Edwards aide, here is what drives Elizabeth Edwards's frustration: last weekend, you might not know, if you weren't there, that John Edwards forced Hillary Clinton to defend lobbyists, and not Barack Obama. Not some nobody. John Edwards. But the press (in Elizabeth Edwards's view) has apparently decided that it's a two person race, and that if someone else drives a storyline, it's irrelevant to the story. Hence, the campaign has turned to less traditional outlets.
Still, it is hard to see what Obama's race or Clinton's gender have to do with the perception that either has a better shot to win the nomination than Edwards.
Also: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are two different creatures of history. Clinton's gender and Obama's race (actually, he has a black father and a white mother, and what is race, anyway) are not identical in terms of their relevance to their campaigns.
Using Edwards's logic, one could easily say (just as reductively), that without his Southern accent, John Edwards would be just another wealthy trial lawyer.
Clearly, folks aren't supporting Obama because he's black or Clinton because she's a woman.
By the way: what does Elizabeth Edwards think of this story?
The AFL-CIO Support Card
CHICAGO -- Tomorrow, the AFL-CIO executive council is expected to free its members unions to endorse whichever presidential candidate they want. For the second cycle in a row, there will be no unified labor endorsement.
Here's who's looking at whom: (UPDATE: It seems like Jonathan Tasini had the same idea. Compare his guesses to mine; some are the same, some are different.)
Expect Sen. John Edwards to receive several early endorsements. He has the inside track to get the nod of the politically-active United Steelworkers, according to labor observers, and is a lock for the Carpenters. Edwards's rivals expect him to be endorsed by several other industrial unions as well, including the United Auto Workers, which is otherwise occupied with contract negotiations this month. A UAW sanction would help Edwards in Michigan, which might hold a presidential nominating caucus in January of 2008.
Sen. Hillary Clinton has a shot at two union nods: it's likely that she'll eventually get the endorsement of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees -- AFSCME -- whose president, Gerald McEntee, is very close to Bill and Hillary Clinton. (McEntee endorsed Bill Clinton in 1992, breaking with other unions.) Clinton is also in the running for the American Federation of Teachers endorsement, but it's unclear whether they will endorse. NAFTA has forever closed doors to the entire Clinton family.
Three candidates are credibly vying for the the International Association of Fire Fighters endorsement: Clinton, Sen. Chris Dodd, and Gov. Bill Richardson.
Union insiders believe that the coveted SEIU endorsement -- and remember here that the SEIU isn't part of the AFL-CIO -- will go to John Edwards, Barack Obama or no one. Hillary Clinton is liked by some members of the SEIU board but a major SEIU player -- local 1199 chief Dennis Rivera -- has never really been a fan. Another Change to Win union -- UniteHere -- is partial to Edwards.
When the AFL-CIO admits its ability to reach a consensus, will John Edwards be blamed? He threw himself into the labor community after 2004, joining picket lines, stumping on minimum wage votes and raising money for labor-endorsed candidates. He has proposed the most labor-friendly policies so far, culminating this week with his "smart and safe" trade initiative. That the AFL-CIO did not coalesce around him may say something about his electability or it may mean nothing at all.
Two other reasons why the AFL-CIO could not reach a consensus: Chris Dodd and Joe Biden. It's easy for John Edwards to talk about labor friendly policies; Biden and Dodd can cite a long record of actually working in labor's interests. They are too politically savvy (and realistic) to expect endorsements, but they do expect unions to not endorse anyone else.
AMES -- Inside Romney's Push
Mitt Romney's campaign is calling his Ames straw poll effort "Take The Lead," and some of the mail that is showing up in Iowa these days suggests that the campaign is sparing no expense and really, really, wants to win this thing by a large margin.
A mailer sent to us by an Iowan this week shows that the campaign has even figured out a way to reward and incentivize supervolunteers. There are three categories.
"Bring 5: -- Iowans who sign up and bring five friends, relatives, neighbors.
"Bus Captains" -- Iowans who agree to recruit riders to hop on the buses that will appear on Saturday morning in every Iowa county.
"Sign up Iowa" -- Iowans who agree to knock on 50 doors or make 100 telephone calls.
Meet these goals, and you'll be placed on Romney's "Wall of Fame" that will be kept at the campaign's Iowa headquarters and will thus be ever present until the caucuses?
On the way to Ames, riders will be entertained on board their food-filled air conditioned coaches, and somehow, a special message from Romney will be played.
The mailer also brags about the comforts of Romney's straw poll Tent. attendees and mooching reporters can sway to the strains of The Sonny Humbucker Band, which plays rock and alternative, and The Ballyhoo Foxtrot Orchestra, which plays patriotic standards. They'll eat World Class bar-b-q from Ames's own Hickory Farms. And "the kids will love Gee Willie inflatables. The kids can play in a fun, safe, family-friendly environment."
Thunderstorms Expected For Soldier Field Debate
CHICAGO -- The main event --= this important AFL-CIO forum -- begins at 7pm local time at Soldier field. The weather forecast calls for thunderstorms. The AFL-CIO expects more than 10,000 union members to watch the debate live. Of course, the NBC affiliate plans to carry the event live, so those members without cable can watch from the comfort of their homes.
John Edwards, Joe Biden and Bill RIchardson are hosting tailgate parties. (Richardson has a -- ssh -- private dinner after the debate with the president of the International Association of Fire Fighters.)
Barack Obama has a private meet-and-greet with union officials and his campaign has invited several key union political operatives and executives to headquarters for a special briefing with campaign manager David Plouffe.
Hillary Clinton has no special plans...planned, but her campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, will be in town and, one assumes, has meetings scheduled.
Romney, Abortion And Federalism
Has Mitt Romney contradicted himself about abortion? Again? The answer, not surprisingly, isn't clear.
I interviewed Romney in February, and here's what he told me:
NJ: You would favor a constitutional amendment banning abortion with exceptions for the life of the woman, rape, and incest. Is that correct?
Romney: What I've indicated is that I am "pro-life" and that my hope is that the Supreme Court will give to the states over time, or give to the states soon, ... their own ability to make their own decisions with regard to their own abortion law.
NJ: What if a state wanted unlimited abortion?
Romney: The state would fall into restrictions that had been imposed at the federal level, so they couldn't be more expansive in abortion than currently exists under the law, but they could become more restrictive in abortion provisions. So states like Massachusetts could stay like they are, if they so desire. And states that have a different view could take that course. And it would be up to the citizens of the individual states. My view is not to impose a single federal rule on the entire nation, a one-size-fits-all approach, but instead allow states to make their own decisions in this regard.
Sen. John Edwards knows that Sen. Hillary Clinton's biggest vulnerability among Democrats is the perception that she is not electable. A polling memo prepared for internal campaign consumption but obtained by this semi-checked out column shows the reasons why.
