Obama Clinton
New ways 61% 43%
Traditional 18% 40%
approaches
CBS sampled a large cross-section of registered voters, which means that this poll is a useful gauge of mass opinion; there's no direct connection between these results and surveys of likely primary voters in states.
Ok, so do voters favor new ways or traditional approaches? To what extent is this a change election? 63% favor new ways; 24 percent favor traditional approaches.
That's kind of a stale question, though, right? Most poll respondents probably think "new ways" is the right answer.
How about a more directed question: which attribute do voters desire more?
EXPERIENCE VS. FRESH IDEAS?
Experience 44% Fresh ideas 41%What about Democrats only?
Among Democratic primary voters who value experience, Clinton leads Obama by more than three to one, 49% to 16%. Among those who value fresh ideas,The poll doesn't ask the next logical questions in the sequence: of those Democrats paying attention now, which matters more? Of those Democrats not paying attention, which mattes more? For voters in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina, which matters more?
Ok -- let's assume that folks don't think Obama has the "right experience." Does that mean they think he'll make the wrong decisions?
Two thirds of voters think it likely he would make good decisions about dealing with foreign countries, slightly fewer than say the same about Clinton.What about Obama's ability to handle an international crisis?
Just 33% do, while more, 49%, are uneasy. Voters are also skeptical about Clinton’s ability to do so, although more voters have confidence in her.Final salient question. How sticky are Clinton's supporters right now?
Both Obama’s and Clinton’s supporters are energized by their candidates. 63% of Democratic primary voters who back Obama say they strongly favor him, as do 61% of Clinton’s supporters.
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I do think the dynamics of this race are going to change in Obama's favor in November and December, for a couple reasons.
One, expectations. Clinton is the "experienced" candidate while Obama isn't. Yet its Clinton who has made the more mistatements (in my view, though the media is only starting to pick up on her mistakes). Much of what Obama has been criticized over actually was him demonstrating an understanding of current U.S. policy while Clinton has demonstrated a lack of understanding. No where is this more clear than U.S. nuclear weapons policy. So when more voters start actively paying attention, and find out Obama actually doesn't sound like a naive idiot while Clinton does occassionally make mistakes, he will surpass his expectations while she will fall short of hers.
Two, Obama is putting out some meat on the bones of his broader statements. Clinton isn't, but will have to at some point. When she does, there will be more to criticize. Doing that right before the primaries might not be the best idea. You can't make these all-things-to-all-people statements forever.
Posted by Paul | August 15, 2007 9:04 PM