A Last Post On Fundraising Before The Quarter Ends

Two fundraising quarters, the same story. The political world expects Hillary Clinton to raise more money than Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton's advisers downplay expectations. Obama's advisers say nothing. Barack Obama outraises Hillary Clinton. The political world justifably rewards Obama for toppling the collosus.

This quarter: Hillary Clinton's team is downplaying expectations, suggesting to an ABC News reporter that she'll raise between $17M and $20M for the primary. (She'll also wind up raising between $3M and $5M for the general election).

Barack Obama's campaign is mum, although they deride the Clinton's expectations setting.

Here's a guess, based on the two previous cycles of expectations setting: Obama may outraise Clinton again. Or the two candidates will raise roughly the same amount.

At this point, the fundraising race is about stamina and spending. Both Clinton and Obama will have more than enough money to compete through Feb. 5.

And note: whoever wins the nomination, a merger of the Clinton-Obama fundraising organizations will give the Democrats an enormous advantage over the Republican nominee.

Comments

except you'd have to subtract the people who are funding obama now primarily because they can't stand clinton.

Posted by Phoebe | September 25, 2007 3:38 PM

Phoebe, if Obama has the money and decides to give it to Clinton, the people who donated to him aren't really going to have a say. I think that's what Marc was referring to.

Posted by james | September 25, 2007 4:19 PM

If edwards 3rd quater numbers are low does that mean a drop out of 08race announcement?

Posted by Greg | September 25, 2007 4:28 PM

If edwards 3rd quarter numbers are low does that mean a drop out of 08race announcement?

Posted by Greg | September 25, 2007 4:29 PM

No, James, that's not what Marc means--merging fundraising organizations is not giving over money previously raised by the Obama campaign.

Posted by fldem | September 25, 2007 5:13 PM

Obama will not give his donations to Hillary nor will he be on a ticket with her. The polls have not been accurate with the last couple of elections. I believe Obama will win the election and will be our next President.

Posted by Cheryl | September 25, 2007 7:28 PM

While my heart and my hopes are with Cheryl....my head is preparing for a different eventuality, if it comes to that. And I have been wondering what Barack could bring to a Vice Presidential slot on a Hillary-Obama ticket that could overcome the hard headed political reservations about an all glass ceiling ticket, the possibility that with Bill in the East Wing, Obama may be charisma redundant (and the two of them may just provide way too much shade for Hillary to be comfortable in...) and the clear fact that they seem to pretty much despise each other (Hillary and Barack, that is).

But Marc may have put his finger on the utterly inarguable and singular strength Barack brings to any ticket.......money. He seems to have created the best, most effecient and widely based cash raising operation in American political history, that can be tapped again and again because it consists of hundreds of thousands of small doners. And that ain't beanbag, and Hillary knows it. That may turn out to be his leverage if he wants on a ticket with her.

Posted by Rickielee | September 25, 2007 9:56 PM

Obama is the people's favorite and that's where his money comes from. Hillary has her constituencies, like Rupert Murdoch, so she'll be fine. That speaks for her though, not us. She is not good for us.
When the good people of New Hampshire make up their minds, when accomplishments and leadership matter most, Obama will shine.
For now, he's got many independents, greens, republicans and dems coming together to make his campaign work. We need the early states to get past the rhetoric, be smart and elect the best candidate with the most honorable experience.

Posted by jdr | September 25, 2007 11:22 PM

Regardless of whether or not Barack is on the ticket, it would be out of character for him to withhold his support and I expect he will give money and campaign on their behalf, based on their desire for his help, just like Howard Dean did in 2004.

Posted by howie in seatle | September 25, 2007 11:55 PM

Rickielee,

From my point of view, it seems like Obama has no intention of being vice-president. Also, in the unlikely event that he got "on a ticket" with Hillary (which I doubt, since I believe he will win the nomination), I have a feeling that all that money -- coming from hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom never gave to a campaign before -- would go away.

The reason being this: all those donations are unprecendented because Obama has triggered a feeling of hope in those people. Conceding our country to "business as usual", which would be the case if he ran for vice, would be a huge disappointment to his campaign base.

Just my two cents.

Posted by Trish | September 26, 2007 2:43 AM

I'm one of those "good people from New Hampshire" and I'm a Clinton supporter. {smash! tomato! rotten tomato! smash! smash!}
I will be thrilled with any of the candidates as our candidate, but I've got to go in the primary with the one I want to be Prez -- Senator Clinton. I couldn't care less about the rightwing noise machine. They are going to do what they are going to do.

Let me say why, if Hillary wins the primary, I support Obama for VP.

I truly believe Obama IS the Democrat who can take us on our path to the future, but he's not ready yet. Sorry, he just isn't. (And, again, if he wins it, I'll be thrilled)
But Bush has erased everything Bill Clinton got us -- peace and prosperity. I believe Hillary Clinton can get us back to that starting gate in eight years -- peace and prosperity -- if it's to be had, after the flustercluck Bush has created. I believe she could then hand Obama what Bush was handed in 2000, and then Obama could show the world what America is all about for the new century.
Obama reminds me so much of JFK, but JFK had lots more experience in politics. And, at that, he almost didn't make it over Dick Nixon.

I know not everyone is excited about my candidate, but I'm excited about all the candidates. Hope we can work as a team, which unfortunately, Democrats appear loath to do sometimes. (I'm a registered Independent.)

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