About 55% Of SEIU's Members Preferred John Edwards

In Chicago, The Change to Win union federation meets today to vet Democratic presidential candidates, and like so many other union conclaves this year, a joint endorsement is unlikely. That no doubt frustates Ex-Sen. John Edwards's campaign, but they can some solace from the fact that at the SEIU member straw poll in Washington last week, Edwards received the support of some 55% of the members, according to labor and political officials.

Tallies for Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton were not available, although SEIU officials have implied that Obama placed second and Clinton placed third.

The New York Times's Steven Greenhouse explains the simple mathematics: though a majority of the SEIU board -- and even the CTW executive committee -- may prefer Sen. Edwards, the membership is sufficiently divided. A bare majority is not enough; a supermajority is needed in order to ratify the preferences of SEIU members.

Comments

From the Greenhouse piece:

Many union leaders are wary of endorsing candidate who will flame out the way Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt did in the 2004 primaries, notwithstanding the union endorsements they had.

If "many union leaders" can't figure out that Edwards is nominatable and electable in a way that Gephardt and Dean fundamentally were not, they really deserve to have Mark Penn directing union policy in this country for the next 8 years.

Posted by Petey | September 25, 2007 9:18 AM

I think many union leaders would look at Edwards third place in the polls (and falling fast in Iowa) and realize that they don't want to bet on the wrong horse. I don't see them endorsing until after Iowa at this point. This election is too important and too polarized for them to achieve a majority before the caucus.

Posted by james | September 25, 2007 9:41 AM

Stern has been saying they wouldn't endorse until October all along. If Edwards has 55% and Stern wants to make a push, odds are strongly in favor of Edwards winning.

Edwards is in a very strong position in Iowa, which seems to be growing in importance as Obama has been forced by stagnant national numbers to stake his campaign on the state too.

Posted by AJ | September 25, 2007 11:00 AM

So Edwards got more than all the others combined. Also I wonder for how many is he the second favorite. I think the unions will make themselves irrelevant if they wait until the result is certain. Who then needs them??? It they want to make a difference they actually have to MAKE a difference in the race. Waiting until after the primary doesn't do it.

Posted by Rene | September 25, 2007 1:39 PM

james,

I'm not sure what polls in Iowa you are talking about. Falling fast? hardly.

If they back edwards in Iowa, it's all he needs to win that state.

At that point, if you stand real close, the air coming out of the Hillary balloon will produce a refreshing breeze.

Posted by DrFrankLives | September 25, 2007 1:40 PM

The SEIU has made it clear they are looking at electability as part of their criteria this time. So I thought it would be instructive to do the same, and here's what I found in looking at the most recent SUSA state head-to-head polls where Edwards, Clinton, and Obama are matched against Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney. (The 8 states for Sept are AL IA KS KY MO NM OH VA.)

Looking at either a winning or smallest loss margin, Edwards runs the board except for 2 instances for Clinton.

We may be deciding the Democratic nominee so the traditional media is focusing on the race within the party. I look at how that potential nominee will match up against the real opposition, the Republicans. Unless the unions and Democrats start paying attention to the real race, it looks like we're poised to once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Posted by edgery | September 25, 2007 2:44 PM

If Hillary wins the nomination why WOULD a union endorse her?

How many more free trade agreements and pro insurance company health care proposals do you need rammed down your throat before you get it?

Posted by neaguy | September 25, 2007 8:26 PM