Dare it be said: I think the Des Moines Register's David Yepsen doesn't quite have the right reading of the "Four State Pledge" the leading Democratic presidential candidates, including Hillary Clinton, took last week.
If Clinton loses Iowa, Yepsen writes, "What could she do? She might have tried to use her financial advantage and name recognition in the polls to mount a quick comeback in Michigan and Florida. Now, she's taken that option off the table."
Not completely. It's true: she won't win any delegates. But (a) the media coverage of Florida and Michigan is TBD. And (b), the pledge doesn't prevent the campaign from spending certain amounts of money in Florida, raising money in Florida, or even scheduling $1 a pop major rallies. It doesn't prevent campaigns from giving interviews to local television, from running national cable advertising spots, or even, in some interpretations, from running ads on local television stations. In theory -- and the Clinton campaign certainly endorses this theory -- Michigan and Florida are no longer closed piggy banks. In theory, a Clinton "win" there could help her blunt a defeat in, say, South Carolina.
That said, it's true that, had Michigan and Florida remained in good standing with the DNC, Clinton would have a better strategic vantage point.
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Entirely agreed. This is exactly what I argue on Campaign Diaries.
A month will have gone by between contests in Iowa/New Hampshire and the February 5th primaries (which is almost entirely due to Michigan and Florida's going forward in the first place). Clinton will have plenty of time (and money) to recover from poor results early, and a triumph in Florida would put to rest talk of a faltering Clinton campaign. And by the time California and New York go to the polls, is it more likely that voters have in mind one-month-old results from small sized states? Or is it more likely they remember the outcome of a primary that just happens to be a beauty contest, in one of the most populous states and that happened a week before?
Posted by Daniel | September 6, 2007 12:44 PM