GOP Fundraising Outlook Part I: Romney Backers Worry About Spending

The biggest question that pros will be asking when they assess Republican presidential campaign finances in October: how much of a cash-on-hand advantage does ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giulani have? The corollary question: how much has Mitt Romney spent?

Through two quarters, he had spent $15M more than Giuliani , and some Republicans estimate that with his heavy spending on television advertising and the Ames straw poll, he'll exceed Giuliani's aggregate spending by $20M through three quarters.

Giuliani advisers won't provide an estimate of their expected haul -- they are very good at keeping their estimates in house -- but they probably will not raise as much as they did last quarter. Through June 30, Giuliani had raised nearly $35M and had $16M left to spend, a burn rate of about 45%.

Romney has loaned himself nearly $9M, which, when subtracted from his $12M cash-on-hand, would suggest that receipts in have not kept pace with disbursements, generally, which have totaled more than $32M. Romney donors said that they had been told that Romney was prepared to spend another $5M to keep his campaign's budget intact. They give a range of $10M to $12M for individual contributions in the third quarter.

John McCain will raise between $4 and $5M; Fred Thompson will probably raise around $6M.

A back-of-envelope calculation: If Rudy raised $13M and kept his burn rate at 50%, he'll have about $22M in the bank. If Romney raises, at a low end, $15M (including his own contribution) and wound up spending $.75 cents per dollar, he'll have less than $8M in the bank. (His campaign reported cash-on-hand totals of more than $12M last quarter, but, per Political Money Line, it had debts of nearly $10M.)

So -- the answer to the first question we posed: Giuliani may have between $11M and $15M more to spend than Romney as of the end of the third quarter.

His campaign knows, however, that Romney could theoretically write himself another check to keep pace.

Comments

This will be over Feb 5 and no Republican candidate who loses should have any money left on Feb 6.

Giuliani is a household name, look at all the polls now which are mostly about name recognition.

Rudy does not need to "introduce himself" to voters and Romney does.

If Romney spends all his money and loses he did all he could. If he spens half his money and loses, he failed to live up to his donor's wishes.

Posted by Liz | September 21, 2007 9:39 AM

I certainly wish Marc would do his homework. A large percent of the Giuliani's 11-15 million is money that he can spend ONLY in the general election which completely makes his arguments invalid.

Posted by Tom | September 21, 2007 9:50 AM

Its tough to start at as an unknown an vye for the presidency. Romney's stratgy is the only way you can run if you're an unknown. Unless, you align yourself with groups like MoveOn.org and other specails interests with deep, deep pockets.

Posted by ClubbieTim | September 21, 2007 10:02 AM

Romney could literally write himself a check for $20M and not really notice the difference in his bank account. As long as he has that kind of self-funding capacity, he's essentially always in first place in the fundraising race, and discussion of "burn rates" with his campaign are effectively meaningless.

Posted by dry_fish | September 21, 2007 10:11 AM

LOL. Are you kidding me? Romney has a $250 million budget. Get real. If your going to run for the white house, take no prisoners.

Posted by Red State | September 21, 2007 10:32 AM

Interestingly with all of Romney's money, it has not created any traction for him. He still polls very poorly nationally and he is losing ground in New Hampshire (probably in Iowa, too--but there haven't been recent polls).

Posted by Joel | September 21, 2007 10:47 AM

Most people are not decided, and polls are still about name ID, which Romney has to pay for. The good news is he is a strong second in a California poll today. Just a few points behind Rudy in California, and he has not advertised in that state. Once the Iowa win hits the news, California will be Romney's.

Posted by nate | September 21, 2007 11:08 AM

Romney's strategy looks really good. Would anyone have predicted him to have such large fundraising totals and such a clear pathway to the nomination for 2008.

He as leads in Iowa or New Hampshire as large or larger than Ms. Clinton, a much better known entity.

In Iowa, his lead is as large as Clinton's New Hampshire lead, and in the battleground of New Hampshire, his lead is larger than Ms. Clinton's in the battleground of Iowa.

I can not imagine that Republican candidates believe that allowing him a victory in Iowa and momentum into New Hampshire is a good rule of thumb.

His organization across the early states as solidified. Recently in Florida, Romney pulled in large crowds of 2K, and his poll numbers have risen.

I think that when many pundits like Jay Cost have tried to dismiss this set of assumptions for organization, money, and early states only to propel a weaker set based National polling snapshots alone.

Posted by mikeVA | September 21, 2007 11:16 AM

How can you say Romney hasn't had 'Traction'. With the exception of SC. Everywhere the Romney media machine has hit, he's had huge traction. Remember in January he polled 3rd of 4th in Iowa, NH, Michigan. Romney currently leads in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Michigan. 5 of the first 6 GOP Primary/caucus states. His game plan is nothing short of genius. Even his opponents are envious of his ‘traction’. Fred Thompson can think he has a shot all he wants, nevertheless this is a two horse race. Fred has no support in the early primary battle grounds, except SC. Which plays perfect for Romney. If the only state he loses in the first 6 is SC but Thompson takes those electorates. Rudy gains little and Romney gains the most even in losing.

Posted by Red State | September 21, 2007 11:20 AM

If you remember last year, the 1st tier candidates where Rudy and McCain. The 2nd tier included Romney and all the others. He was totally unknown. He has been the only candidate to successfully make the leap. That took working like crazy, making money, and, yes, spending like crazy. And now he is 1st tier. Now Huckabee has the opportunity to make the leap also. He MUST follow Romney to do so: make and spend lots of money and work like crazy. Otherwise, Huckabee is just a feel-good story (I would love a Romney/Huckabee ticket!).

Posted by Travis | September 21, 2007 11:42 AM

The article misunderstand Romney's situation. You implied that Romney would at some point need to pay the 9 million in debts the campaign owes. These debts are money Romney has already contributed. Redo your figures without subtracting the 10 million you noted... Not to shabby!

Posted by ddustin | September 21, 2007 11:49 AM

romney should write himself another check. he needs to advertise more than rudy does.

no shame in that when your total receipts from others than yourself are still more than any other gop candidate and likely second most after this quarter.

i expect teh numbers to be even less than ambinder's predictions.

what is most interesting is thompson only brinign in 6 million. that would be very interesting. I think that takes him out of the race. it will be hard for him to compete with that little money. he can't rely on american's ignornace for too much longer.

Posted by tim | September 21, 2007 1:11 PM

Marc wrote:

"Romney donors said that they had been told that Romney was prepared to spend another $5M to keep his campaign's budget intact."

Is another $5 million the maximum limit Romney is prepared to contribute toward his campaign?

Would Romney sooner withdraw than continue relying upon his self-financing?

Being the successful businessman he is, I always suspected he would responsibly cut his losses and stop throwing good money after bad if his candidacy didn't eventually take off nationally. Struggling to climb out of single digits in the polls must give Romney and potential donors serious pause.

Posted by argo | September 21, 2007 2:46 PM

How about showing Dr. Ron Paul some love? Who would have suspected that someone with such low name recognition would have more cash on hand then McCain at this point. I think when the 3Q numbers come out he will be in third for cash on hand and be in a very strong position.

Posted by Mark | September 21, 2007 2:54 PM

Why the assumption that Romney hasn't been raising money well? Maybe he has... time will tell, but this article is just spin.....and speculation.

Posted by MNJ | September 21, 2007 3:56 PM

Two thoughts:

Romney is king of balance sheets and cash flow. The thought that someone else needs to worry for him is sophistry.

Romney is not trying to place in the National Polls, he is trying to place in the early voting states, and he is doing very well. This man is a brilliant strategist.

Posted by Shawnie | September 21, 2007 4:17 PM

First of all, we’re talking about someone whose forte has to do with making and managing money; plus he is smart; very smart. He also knows how to get the right people to work in his campaign. Finally, this FACT: All other candidates would be more than willing to trade places with Romney money-wise, and poll-wise in Iowa, NH, Nevada, Michigan, California, etc., When Romney leads, there’s no need to worry. He has proven that all his life.

Posted by dan | September 21, 2007 5:53 PM

Dan, I couldn't agree with you more. He is smart and any of the other candidates would love to be where he is (though they will never admit it)

Posted by Ian | September 21, 2007 9:21 PM

What is this "loan" business, anyway? Can't he just give his campaign the money? Can he decide not to pay himself back?

Posted by right | September 24, 2007 1:06 AM

where's ron paul's estimate?

Posted by julius | September 29, 2007 5:59 PM

October 3, 2007

ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA -- The Ron Paul 2008 presidential campaign raised $5,080,000 during the third quarter of 2007. That is an impressive 114 percent increase from the second quarter.

Cash on hand for the Paul campaign is $5,300,000.

"Dr. Paul's message is freedom, peace and prosperity," said Paul campaign chairman Kent Snyder. "As these fundraising numbers show, more Americans each day are embracing Dr. Paul's message."

Ron Paul's 114 percent increase is in stark contrast to the decrease suffered by Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain. Romney's fundraising was down 29 percent. Giuliani was down 40 percent. McCain was down 55 percent.

Looks like Ron Paul may be a top tier candidate soon...He was first place in straw polls this week in Georgia and New Jersey..and has more cash on hand than McCain now.

Posted by ThomasJeffersonRules | October 6, 2007 1:18 PM