The Primary Calendar Begins To Fill Out, Finally

Though New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner hasn't set his date yet and flux seems to be the state of the primary calendar, there is, among the leading Democratic and Republican presidential candidates, remarkable unanimity about its most likely shape.

The Iowa Caucuses will move to Saturday, January 5.

Gardner will schedule New Hampshire's primary for Tuesday the 8th.

The Democratic National Committee will permit Nevada to move its caucuses to the 12th; the Republicans will probably follow suit.

Michigan Republicans will vote in a primary on Jan. 15; Democrats will vote in a non-delegate beauty contest. (Michigan will lose half its allotted GOP delegates).

South Carolina's Democrats will, with the DNC's permission, move their primary to Jan. 19 to coincide with the Republican primary that day.

And then Florida Republicans will vote on Jan. 29; the Democrats will participate in another non-delegate beauty contest. (Florida will lose half its allotted GOP delegates, triggering a rules change to winner-takes-all, which will benefit, obviously, the winner).

To sum:

Jan. 5:   Iowa caucuses (both parties)
Jan. 8:   New Hampshire primary (both parties)
Jan. 12:  Nevada caucuses (both parties)
Jan. 15  Michigan GOP primary; Dem beauty contest
Jan. 19:  South Carolina primary (both parties)
Jan. 29:  Florida GOP primary; Dem beauty contest

Comments

What about Wyoming? :o)

Posted by Anonymous | September 27, 2007 11:35 AM

Is this your calendar? I havent heard anything from the Democratic Party leaders about these changes. Why do they have to move since, both Florida and Michigan delegates will NOT count at the Convention? There is no need to move.

Posted by lynn | September 27, 2007 12:07 PM

Hillary has already been coronated by the Soros controlled Dem party money machine, so voting is just a formality.

On the GOP side this is interesting. I tend to think that we could be in for a long interesting GOP season.

South Carolina and Florida are both important GOP states. If they split then the contest moves on to other states.

Michigan could well go to Romney, due to fond memories of his Dad's time as Gov. there.

Guilliani stands a good chance in Nevada and New Hampshire.

Thompson may come on in the South.

It could easily still be a three way (or even four way) race in Feb on the GOP side.

Posted by RW2 | September 27, 2007 12:07 PM

Am I the only one who doesn't understand what a "non-delegate beauty contest" is? Will Michigan and Florida not have "real" Democratic primaries at all? If not, do they not send delegates to the convention? They send delegates but they don't vote? They send delegates, they vote, but we don't know whom they're voting for ahead of time? Ditto for the GOP delegates Florida loses.

What's the real impact of these developments, please??

Posted by Michele | September 27, 2007 12:30 PM

All the primaries will award delegates, and all the delegates will vote.

The DNC and the RNC can make all the rulings they wish, but once a candidate reaches a majority in the primaries, he or she will effectively be in control of the convention, and no candidate in his or her right mind is going to anger people in key states like Michigan or Florida. All the votes will be counted.

The only solution to the continuing moves to earlier primary dates is a national compromise agreement: allow the first four small states to remain at the front - IO, NH, SC, and NV - and the rest rotate. Whatever states vote first after the four in one cycle move to the end for the next cycle, and other states move up to the next earlier date. Every 40 years or so, each state will have held its primary on every possible date, and the rotation begins anew.

Posted by Jim Addison | September 27, 2007 2:04 PM

Michele-

A "non-delegate beauty contest" means the voters go to the polls and cast their ballots, and the news media reports the results (meaning a possible bump in the national polls for the winner), but the state does not actually send any delegates to the convention. The FL and MI Dems would *like* to send delegates to the convention, but their primaries are being held outside the DNC's window, so the DNC won't let them send delegates to the convention.

Regarding the GOP delegate losses, that just means that states like FL will hold their primaries as normal, but, because they're holding their primary outside the RNC's allowed window, the RNC will only allow them to send half the number of delegates to the convention that they would otherwise be entitled to.

Posted by Chris S. | September 27, 2007 2:04 PM

"All the primaries will award delegates, and all the delegates will vote.

The DNC and the RNC can make all the rulings they wish, but once a candidate reaches a majority in the primaries, he or she will effectively be in control of the convention, and no candidate in his or her right mind is going to anger people in key states like Michigan or Florida. All the votes will be counted."
---

Yes, once a candidate gets a majority of delegates **based on the results of primaries in other states**, the presumptive nominee could retroactively make the FL and MI delegates count. But the nomination will have already been decided by then, so it won't make any difference. The candidates have to win a majority of delegates in other states first, so they're not going to bother campaigning in FL and MI. Or if they do, it'll only be a token effort.

Posted by Chris S. | September 27, 2007 2:10 PM

RW2 said: "Hillary has already been coronated by the Soros controlled Dem party money machine, so voting is just a formality." Nonsense, if by that you mean the Soros money machine is enough - Hillary is also supported by legions (unfortunately, since I'm an Obama supporter myself) of people more aligned with others of the many interest groups under that big tent. Bruce

Posted by Bruce A. McAllister | September 27, 2007 2:54 PM

Jim Addison and Chris S., thank you for the explanations! Very helpful, though there still seems to be some question about whether delegates from those states go to the convention or not.

If the candidates do only token campaigning before their conventions, they will still, I'm sure, pull out all the stops for campaigning in MI and FL for the general.

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