White House Race Rankings: Everything's Coming Up Rudy

We're down to five plausible nominees and four candidates whose presence in the race lacks a purpose. Rudy Giuliani remains No. 1, in part because he's the only candidate of the top three who seems to have struck a good balance between strategy and personality.

These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Democratic rankings.

RUDY GIULIANI -- He's had a great two weeks: acting like a president in London; aggressively challenging MoveOn and therefore burnishing his anti-liberal, tough-guy image; and going before the critical (and critical) National Rifle Association. And his opponents aren't lifting a finger. It's remarkable how easily they're letting Giuliani define the contours of the Republican race. BTW: Will any major Christian conservative leader endorse Giuliani before the primaries begin? If none do, what does that say about the state of the movement?

FRED THOMPSON -- Thompson has lost the elite primary, but he's OK with grassroots Republicans so far. Which one is the trailing indicator? Can anyone tighten him up on the stump? His gaffes come one after the other, he often contradicts himself from one thought to the next, and the national press coverage has been savage. The Florida trip was a disaster; there's no sugarcoating it. An electorate begging for authencity isn't going to buy the notion that he didn't know much about the Terri Schiavo situation. And the Everglades oil drilling comment was just bizarre.

Continue reading our White House '08 race rankings.

Comments

Why can't you guys just report on what the candidates say and do instead of constantly inserting your personal bias. You and others have savaged,as you put it, Fred Thompson. If the Florida trip was such a disaster, why has he cut Giuliani's lead there of 13 points one month ago in half in a new Rasmussen poll out today. You grudgingly admit Fred's OK with grassroots folks, meaning average people, but then go on to talk about how terrible he is doing. Well, it's the average people who will vote and he is connecting with them. How does connecting and doing OK with voters qualify as a "disaster" while pleasing pundits and elites represent "success"? Maybe Fred knows exactly what he is doing -- he's just not doing it your way!

Posted by libertyinmo | September 25, 2007 12:07 PM

Ron Paul is raising about 10,000 per hour on the internet. National Journal can kiss our *ss.

Posted by Tex MacRae | September 25, 2007 1:32 PM

What will the Ron Paulites do after the primary, that is a good question. They won't support the nom., unless it is Mike Huckabee, perhaps. Neither will the christian right, in most cases. So what will they do. You'd have to be at a Ron paul meet up to appreciate the feeling of solidarity and community paulites are creating. They won't just go away quietly. Perhaps they'll form an actual opposition party?

Posted by Bjorn | September 25, 2007 3:21 PM

Marc, how can Giuliani win the Republican nomnination when he has no state he can plausibly win in January? He is trailing in Iowa and New Hampshire against Rompney, who would then certainly use that to beat Giuliani in Michigan where he is strong... and then FLorida? Giuliani's advantage there is already a paltry low sing-digits. Imagine what it will be after Giuliani loses the three early states!

Posted by Daniel | September 25, 2007 3:49 PM

Tex: Does this mean we should expect Paul to report over $21 million in contributions for the quarter ending Sept. 30? That would be very impressive.

Posted by Joshua | September 25, 2007 10:10 PM

Daniel,

How do you get away with thinking Rudy "has no state he can plausibly win in January"?

When Rudy's 4.7 points away from Romney in the RCP average for New Hampshire, and we still have months to go?

When he's polling 2nd in most of them?

When they Team Rudy has barely started into their advertising budget?

When approx 50% of early state voters tell exit pollsters they don't decide until the last week?

When Rudy gets most of McCain's votes when he drops out?

"No state he can plausibly win"?

What's your definition of plausible? Have you looked it up?

Posted by Scott | September 25, 2007 10:40 PM

No real christian is going to vote for cross-dressin' Rudy, no matter how many muslims he promises to bomb. If he does manage to get the bloodthirsty johnny six-packs to get off the couch and vote for him, he'll fracture the party. Kind of like the episcopal church. There's no way Rudy can win- you've wasted your money donating. DOn't feel bad, though. Hilary is almost exactly like him!

Posted by Bjorn | September 25, 2007 11:43 PM

There's only one person running for the people and that's Ron Paul. America is waking up and realizing that they are being robbed from the government. If you are tired of paying for someone else to attend school, the government wasting billions of dollars overseas (that could be spent right here in the U.S.A), and losing our jobs to overseas, then you need to vote for Ron Paul. He's the only candidate who's financed by-the-people because he is for-the-people.

Posted by Robert Johnson | September 26, 2007 1:54 AM