Iowa's All Set For The Third

So:

1. Will the average level of caucus-goer interest be greater because more folks are at home and not working? Or lower, because they're at home and watching college football, hanging out with their family, not working, etc.

2. Will this help or hurt the Obama campaign's registration efforts targeted at 17-year-olds? Where will their college student supporters be? At home? Nearby their college? Elsewhere? How does that help or hurt caucus math?

3. Will the race be frozen, in essence, by Christmas? Can any candidate on either side generate momentum from a standing start between December 24 and January 3?

4. Will there be enough television inventory for all the campaigns to advertise in December? Won't there be a heck of a lot of competition from consumer products advertising?

5. When will the major Iowa newspaper endorsements be released?

6. And finally: who will watch the Orange Bowl instead of caucusing? Which smart campaigns will rent TVs and station them at caucus sites? Is that even legal?

Comments

Who cares about the Orange Bowl? It's not like Iowa will be playing in it.

Posted by Ferentz is overpaid | October 29, 2007 9:15 AM

Would you be saying the same thing if it were the Rose Bowl? I actually like the Orange Bowl, though that is why there are TiVos.

Posted by BigTen forever | October 29, 2007 9:52 AM

6. And finally: who will watch the Orange Bowl instead of caucusing? Which smart campaigns will rent TVs and station them at caucus sites? Is that even legal?

So much for that whole thing about "Iowans take their first in the nation responsibility seriously".

"Yeh, I'd love to determine the course of our nation's future, but come on... there's football on!"

Posted by willie | October 29, 2007 10:59 AM

It is no accident that Obama is using Social Security as a wedge issue between himself and Hillary.

According to the results of the Univ. of Iowa poll, Obama has a plurality on the under-45 vote. He needs to work on seniors and providing detailed (some say courageous answers) on social security can be his way of picking up those voters.

Posted by Tommy | October 29, 2007 5:37 PM

2. Will this help or hurt the Obama campaign's registration efforts targeted at 17-year-olds? Where will their college student supporters be? At home? Nearby their college? Elsewhere? How does that help or hurt caucus math?

My understanding of the caucus is that it doesn't help a candidate to win 1 or 2 precincts big. You have to win lots of precincts. If that's correct, I think it helps him that college students will be home over break instead of all congregating in Cedar Rapids and Ames. He'll just have to make sure he hits 15% in each district to avoid his supporters being forced to Edwards or HRC at this point.

Posted by Keith | October 29, 2007 5:38 PM