Not So Fast, Tom Cole...

From the ebullient chair of the NRCC, Tom Cole:

“Tonight, Jim Ogonowski sent a message to the Washington establishment and the Democratic Party that will reverberate throughout next year’s election. Democrats have officially forfeited the mantle of change.

“Jim’s hard-fought, grassroots campaign, exposed a shift in the political tide, and most impressively, he did it in the bluest of blue states. He proved that a Republican challenger, who centers their campaign on the core issues of lower taxes, less government spending, respect for the rule of law, and most importantly, the issue of bringing change to Washington, can effectively garner votes from independents and swing voters.

“Democrats have a reason to worry. In a race that should have been won in a walk, Democrats were forced to funnel a massive amount of resources and dispatch an all-star cast of liberal icons at the 11th hour in order to ensure victory.

“As their approval ratings have shown, people have already grown angry with the Democrat-led Congress. In a little over nine months, they have gone from being perceived as agents of change and the answer to the problem in Washington to becoming the actual problem. Jim Ogonowski, while unsuccessful in his bid to change Washington, just opened the door for future Republican candidates seeking a path to victory in 2008.”

Well -- this isn't an elite liberal district, as anyone who ever worked for Marty Meehan can tell you. It is insular and provincial and distrusts outsiders; Tsongas lived outside the district before she ran. Though it has stayed in Democratic hands since the 70s, Tsongas still outperformed Gov. Deval Patrick here by two or three points; George H, W. Bush won this congressional district in 1992, as did Mitt Romney in 2002.

Still, Tsongas could have lost -- Ogonowski was a great candidate -- a friendly Iraq war vet who ran on a message of reform and had lots of GOP netroots support. She closed the campaign on the S-CHIP debate, and that helped her quite a bit.

Cole's triumphalism is misplaced. At best -- and this is pretty good -- Ogonowski's run is a blueprint for Republican congressional candidates to run in 2008.

Comments

Calling out Tom Cole for spinning is like calling out a Toyota salesman for suggesting Toyotas are good cars that people should drive.

Not that it's bad when a reporter doesn't utterly buy the spin as gospel, of course. That would just be embarrassing.

Posted by SDM | October 17, 2007 11:18 AM

Actually, my own town-by-town survey of previous votes here (courtesy of the Boston Globe) indicates that Patrick won it by about 10 points -- which is still 11 points less than his statewide margin -- and that Kerry won it by 9 points less than his statewide margin. But it IS the most conservative House district in Massachusetts, and the last to actually elect a GOP Congressman (in 1972).

I also note that the conservative "Hub Politics" blogsite is trying to spin it as a reaction against the "do-nothing Democratic Congress", which just confirms my long-time belief that the Congressional dems had better start making it clear to the public that the only reason they've "done nothing" is that the Senate Republicans filibuster them every time they try to do anything, at a rate three times higher than in any previous Congress in US history. (We certainly can't count on what passes for this nation's political press to point that out.)

Interestingly, "Hub Politics" explicitly DENIES that this election was a referendum on the Iraq War, saying that if it had been Tsongas would have won by a much bigger margin.

Posted by Bruce Moomaw | October 18, 2007 12:46 AM

Sounds like spin by old Marc to me.

Posted by Garry | October 18, 2007 6:40 PM

The mainstream media always errs on the side of promoting the "horse race" because it's better for business (maximal readership). It is similar to their reporting on the climate change consensus, which if you talk to any practicing climatologist has actually been in place since the late 90s. Until very recently, when the consensus had become so loud and clear that it would be embarrassing to pretend otherwise, it was always:

"Atlanta (AP) - Joe Peer-reviewed Scientist today published a study finding that the such-and-such glacier is melting four times as fast as previously thought, and models project the rate to only increase further. We now devote the balance of our coverage of this stunning new research to some paid oil industry consultants who believe nothing is really happening, because to do otherwise might put a damper on their record profits. Fair and balanced, that's us - we give you 'both sides' so YOU can decide."

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