Oh Baby When She Moves, She Moves

It was bount to happen -- Hillary Clinton breaks 50 in a reputable national poll.

Here it is.

In October, numbers don't interest me so much as trendlines and crosstabs, and there's very little in the Post-ABC poll that will hearten her opponents.

Obama's campaign will probably poo-pooh this poll because they have to -- it doesn't pick up -our- voters, they'll say. Individually, poll-by-poll, sure, it's absurd to conclude much of anything. But they're not dolts: they're not oblivious to the trendlines.

Note also the 17pt lead for Giuliani.

Comments

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/10/21/elec04.prez.nh.poll.ap/

Dean had the support of 33 percent to Kerry's 19 percent in the Franklin Pierce College poll conducted October 13-15. The two essentially were tied in July in the last Franklin Pierce survey.

The Moral is: don't count your chickens before they hatch. Who wins Iowa makes a HUGE difference.

Posted by Chuck Miller | October 3, 2007 10:12 AM

Obama's campaign will probably poo-pooh this poll because they have to -- it doesn't pick up -our- voters, they'll say.

Well, duh. This poll was of Democrats and Dem-leaning indpendents. Not likely Dem voters. Not primary voters. Not likely primary voters.

Just based on the past few primaries, less than 1 in 10 people sampled in this poll will vote in the primaries. It's literally like polling for the Dem nomination by sampling 10 likely Dem voters and 90 Canadiens, and calling it a relevant poll. It's not. There are relevant differences between the people who will vote in the primary and those who won't: how much importance they put on party identication, on politics in general, civic duty, etc etc.

As for the rest, Hillary has been swamped with coverage that proclaims her winning the nomination is inevitable, she's "winning" the "horserace" by scoring political points at the debates by parroting the favorite lines of the pundits, etc etc. The annoying thing is the Beltway's idiocy in not realizing that it's their moronic horserace crap that drives these polls. Instead, they take the polls as independent evidence that their moronic coverage is right.

This is how the media drives national campaigns. By the power of their own idiocy.

Posted by mop | October 3, 2007 10:14 AM

She may move, but she doesn't move me. To consider the US under her for four years, let alone eight, makes one hope her reported penchant for spurs is false.

Posted by beneficial | October 3, 2007 11:02 AM

17 points for Rudy? That doesn't match anyone else's polling ...

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