The Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg poll shows little of the broad demographic cleavages that marked their poll in June. No longer is Barack Obama leading among younger voters -- Clinton has swung that group nearly 30 points. Clinton now has solid leads among women with graduate degrees and college grads, too.
In head to head matchups against Republicans, Clinton and Obama both hold leads over the four top-tier Republicans, although Obama does better among Republican women than Clinton does. Clinton manages to take about a quarter of the conservative Christian vote each time. The fabled men/women gender gap appears in the matchups versus Rudy Giuliani: he takes home a commanding margin among men while the Democrats easily beat him among women.
A weird note: in a head-to-head versus Fred Thompson, Hillary Clinton easily outpolls him among men.
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And when there is 80%+ turnout for the primaries I will believe this polling.
METHODOLOGY – STUDY 547, RELEASE 1
The Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg Poll contacted 1,209 adults nationwide by telephone October 19 through 22, 2007. Included are 1,039 registered voters, 469 Democratic Primary voters and 364 Republican Primary voters. "Primary Voters" include both registered party members and eligible others who plan to vote in the party primaries. The 2008 presidential election match-up questions were split among two random sub-groups of 512 and 522 registered voters respectively. Telephone numbers were chosen randomly from a list of all exchanges in the nation, allowing listed and unlisted numbers to be contacted. Multiple attempts were made to contact each number. Adults were weighted slightly to conform with their respective census proportions by sex, ethnicity, age, education, and national region. The margin of sampling error for all adults and all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For Democratic and Republican primary voters respectively it is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For each of the odd/even subgroups, the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For certain other subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results may also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviewing was conducted by Interviewing Service of America, Inc. in Van Nuys, CA.
Posted by Anonymous | October 24, 2007 10:28 AM