The Secret Of Hillary's Success?

Ron Brownstein and Gallup suggest that women with college degrees are accepting her more and more -- and that they account for the lioness's share of her recent surge of support.

But recent polls show Clinton dramatically gaining ground with better-educated Democratic women, both nationally and in the key early state of New Hampshire. More than any other factor, those gains explain why she has nearly doubled her lead over Barack Obama, her closest competitor, in national Gallup polls since summer, according to an analysis by Gallup for National Journal. Clinton remains very popular among downscale Democratic women, the Gallup results show, and her newfound strength among college-educated Democratic women is allowing her to cut into the core of Obama's coalition: well-educated Democrats.

Since 1968, most contested races for the Democratic presidential nomination have come down to a choice between one candidate who mainly appeals to better-educated and more-affluent voters with moderate economic positions and liberal views on social and foreign-policy issues, and a rival who relies on downscale voters drawn to populist economics and somewhat more conservative social and foreign-policy messages.

Democrats often describe these two archetypes as "wine track" and "beer track" candidates. Wine track candidates, almost always reformers with a literary sense of detachment, have included Eugene McCarthy in 1968, Gary Hart in 1984, and Bill Bradley in 2000. Beer track candidates, from Hubert Humphrey in 1968 to Walter Mondale in 1984 and Al Gore in 2000, usually offer less inspiration but greater attention to kitchen-table concerns.

That pattern quickly resurfaced in 2008 polling. Obama, with his cerebral manner, promises of political renewal, and open-collar-cool style, ran best among college-educated voters from early on. Hillary Clinton, with an appeal centered on the economic needs of working families whom she termed "invisible Americans," showed the most strength with less educated voters. (The support of John Edwards, the third major Democratic contender, varies little by class, even though his message is heavily tilted toward populist economics.)

Clinton's gender introduced a new variable to the wine/beer axis. While she runs more strongly with less educated voters than those with college degrees, she also runs better with women than men. In polls, Clinton has consistently been strongest at the point where her advantages intersect: among women without a college education. Clinton has been weakest at the point where neither advantage is present: among college-educated men. Campaign strategists for Clinton and her rivals regard the other two categories -- women with college educations and men without them -- as conflicted swing groups.

Since summer, Clinton has improved with each of these Democratic groups: Her overall average in Gallup/USA Today surveys has jumped from 40 percent in June and July to 48 percent in September and October, a trend mirrored in other national polls. Obama's support has sagged slightly over the same period, allowing Clinton to almost double her lead in Gallup, from 13 points during the summer to 24 points this fall.

What's not clear is why Clinton has improved, and whether the improvements are transitory. When Clinton's peers -- college educated women -- are reminded of some of the less salutary stereotypes about Clinton or when questions are raised about the state of the Clinton marriage, will these gains evaporate?

Comments

"....whether (Clinton's) improvements are transitory."

There was a Pew poll out yesterday which asks respondents to name Presidential candidates without any prompting.

Among Democratic poll-takers, 86% were able to name Clinton, 68% were able to name Obama, and only 31% were able to name Edwards.

The morning after Iowa is going to look pretty damn interesting if Edwards can pull out a win...

Posted by Petey | October 25, 2007 12:53 PM

What's not clear is why Clinton has improved, and whether the improvements are transitory.

There is a deep emotional, symbolic connection to a history making election that puts the first woman in the White House.

Mark Penn said it best on Charlie Rose last week:

"How often have you seen a majority -- women are 54% of the voters -- that has never elected one of its own? It's a powerful thing..."

When a Presidential campaign turns on such strong symbolic change for a sizeable majority of the electorate, it becomes difficult to derail. The more Clinton is viewed as actually winning the election, the stronger this emotional/symbolic factor becomes. I've felt all along that, if she wins the nomination, the campaign energy will go through the roof...and it's already pretty strong.

Posted by hwc | October 25, 2007 2:45 PM

Pennsylvania is not named the Keystone state for any insignificant reason. Without the the sacrifices made by Pennsylvania we would not have a country. Pennsylvania Avenue connects the Whitehouse to the Capital building. Pennsylvania railroad steel and bridging connected “Manifest destiny”. Whenever people are on Pennsylvania Avenue they remember, for had it not been for hard fighting, level headed, and stubborn Pennsylvania musketry at the “Battle of Long Island” in August of 1776, Washington’s forces might well have lost everything. As a Brodhead, I am very proud of the (3 ) Brodhead brothers Col. Daniel Brodhead III, Captain Luke Brodhead, and Lt. Garrett Brodhead ( My great plus grand father). Their regiment, the 8th Pennsylvania regiment (Thompson’s rifles) ,although heavily outnumbered, went toe to toe with Howe’s regulars and covered the withdrawal of Washington’s forces across the East river from Brooklyn heights.. They stood up, as all Pennsylvanians do, when this country needs patriots. Pennsylvanians never run from a fight. Well, our way of life is again being attacked by forces that want to abolish our Republican values.. All the things that Americans have fought for these 232 years is in jeopardy. Its seems that our Democratic Party has morphed into the Socialist/ Democratic Party. May I call on all Pennsylvanians to again rally the musketry of Republican values and fight against socialism? You might look at Duncan Hunter as our very best candidate for president?. His website is www.GoHunter08.com. Please give to the campaign, because he is a good, hardworking and honest statesman, and we need him in this race to uphold Conservative Republican values. We need him as president.. Please read on.

The last three Republican administrations have been something to be extremely proud of. Reagan helped us overcome the Carter administration, deplorable interest rates, and the Nixon debacle. He restored faith in the presidency, and pride in our country. We won the Cold war, and our economy grew. George Herbert Walker Bush restored the pride in our Armed Services. Desert storm brought a national healing for our Vietnam Veterans. George Walker Bush has conducted a first class presidency and has continued the Reagan legacy of strength and Republican core values. I feel that he did a wonderful job considering, the previous administration, the 2000 dangling chad fiasco election, the stock market crash, and 911. I am proud of George Bush and proud to be a Republican.
The Iraq event has yet to be completely remedied, however great strides have been made by General Patreus and his steadfast troops.

Duncan Hunter was elected the House of Representatives California 52nd district in 1980 the same year Ronald Reagan took office. Duncan Hunter is a Reagan protégé and our best Conservative Republican choice for the presidency.

Duncan Hunter has represented California’s 52nd congressional district for some 26 years. He authored the border fence bill which mandates 854 miles of double row fence across the southern borders of California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. The bill was passed, but the mandated fence has yet to be built. When Duncan is president he will build that fence in 6 months with American steel. DHS had the audacity to build a portion of the fence with steel made in China. Duncan came down on them immediately. He wants American steel building that fence. He and all Americans want are steel industry back in places like Bethlehem Pennsylvania. (The Saucona Iron works as it was called in the beginning was established by Charles Brodhead and Augustus Wolle who are considered the fathers of Bethlehem steel). He has already built a 60 plus mile fence between Mexico and his district located in the San Diego county California. The steel to build the fence was hauled by American truckers, built from American steel, and built by American workers. This segment of fence alone has reduced drug smuggling and crime in the area by 90 percent. As most Americans, Duncan feels strongly that we need to secure our borders first, and then enforce the immigration laws that are presently on the books. Secure borders and stopping illegal immigration is part of our homeland security. This country has always welcomed legal immigrants. Our current illegal alien population refuses to legalize their status here, learn English and fully assimilate into this great country. They lower the overall wage for all Americans, use billions in human services, and send their money back to Mexico.

Duncan is a Vietnam Veteran who served as a combat officer in the U.S. Army. His Son Duncan D Hunter is in the Marine Corps and has already served two tours in Iraq, and is currently serving another tour in Afghanistan. Duncan Hunter served on the House Armed Services Committee for some 26 years and as its chairman for 4 years. He is now its ranking member. As a 22 year Air Force Veteran, I witnessed first hand how much “the quality of life for our troops” increased while Duncan Hunter was on the House “Armed Services Committee”. I saw how our services regained the pride to be in Uniform. Unlike the current Democrats, he will not allow our defeatists and political opportunists to undermine our troops and their pride to be patriot Americans.

Duncan Hunter wants to win in Iraq. He understands that a win for us, will be a win for the Iraqi people, as well as, the region, and the world. He understands that we must battle harden the 130 plus Iraqi Army battalions and provide them with a thorough combat operations experience so we can stand the Iraqi battalions up as we rotate our heavy units out. Duncan Hunter supports our troops. As president of the United States of America he will continue to ensure that our troops are the best trained, best fed and best equipped military in the world. We will fight and defeat terror anywhere on earth. We will further freedom and democracy in the world and protect America. Peace through Strength.

Duncan Hunter believes in the Arsenal of democracy. He feels that some of our current trade deals are one sided and that countries like China devalue their currency in order to be more competitive. Their trade practices, taxing structure; currency devaluation is gutting our country’s manufacturing base. Good manufacturing jobs are going off shore and are being replaced with low paying service jobs. Duncan is still a free trader; all he wants are mirror trade deals. American workers and entrepreneurs are the hardest working and most efficient in the world. No country in the world can compete with the American worker on a level playing field. Mirror trade deals will level the playing field and help restore our manufacturing base. This will create new jobs for our children. It will ensure our children have a better world and the same opportunities we have had. We owe it to future generations to put America first. Our tax base and way of life will be unsustainable given the trend to off shore American jobs otherwise.

Duncan Hunter wants Safe American trucks driven by Safe American truckers on our American highways. He is working hard to ensure that truckers from our Southern neighbor do not have the opportunity to take American trucking jobs, reduce the overall truckers wage or smuggle drugs and illegals into America in unsafe Mexican trucks. Under his tenure, he puts the American trucker first. American roads, American Trucks, and American Truckers.

Let us look at the current “Let them eat cake” Democratic/Socialist platform:
It is clear that the democrats want to socialize medicine. They want our already taxed to death Small business owners to pay for it. If these tax and spend liberals had ever ran a small business, they would understand as jobs go to China, and we transition to a service economy, revenue becomes harder and harder to generate. Conventional brick and mortar, as well as, fixed costs increase. All the while profits, and, hence wages stagnate. Then throw in a country with a negative savings rate, credit card debt, and outrageous housing costs, supported by low paying service jobs. Under this market model the revenue to support national government, entitlements, and the military will dwindle. We cannot pass this economic model and present government debt onto our next generations.

Healthcare belongs in the private sector. Consider the billions lost from corruption in medicare/medicaide system. Add the huge Baby boomer generation, and the corruption and costs will out pace public revenue. Eliminating the government accounting aspect of our “Great Society” healthcare plan would eliminate corruption and save billions. We must encourage the public to buy their own insurance. Duncan Hunter wants the population to have the ability to buy insurance coverage across state lines. This would lower medical premiums for untold millions. Just as we have a separation of Church and State, we should have separation of health care and state. We cannot expect our next generation to pay for entitlements, government spending, military, exorbitant housing costs, etc. etc. They won’t be able to. We are selling our next generation out. Why sanction the middleclass and small business for a health care program? Why sanction the American people. We will not be able to sustain layer upon layer of government programs and expect to have a growing economy.

The Democrats want to tax the middle and upper financial classes, even though; they pay most of the taxes in this country. They figure if they tell a lie long enough that everyone will believe it. They want to repeal the Bush tax cut also. Now they want everyone to have 401ks in this country. In addition, the government will match $1000 from revenue taken from the estates of the rich. This is utter stupidity and silly political posturing. They are taking freewill and determinism versus environment to a whole new level. They need the entrepreneurs and self starters to create business that provide jobs for most of this country. Then they want to take revenue from these same individuals that create jobs to fund the 401ks of people who can not save for themselves. Sanction the Republican value of freewill, and limited government to support a failed policy of environment. Or lack of policy. Lack of policy on illegal immigration, right to life, family values, education, achievement, limited Government, fiscal responsibility, limited taxation, entrepreneurial spirit etc. Tax the middleclass for achievement and hard work and payoff another segment of society for political gain.

Then there is the baby bond of $5,000. How will the democrats fund this scheme? Will they raise our capital gains from 15 to 80 percent or higher? It seems that the Democrats not only want to expand government, they want to experiment with social engineering ( A sort of Hillary’s Lebensborn) to overcome industrial disease and fund future democratic tax and spend schemes. Wasn’t it the Clinton’s who rented out rooms in the Whitehouse to Chinese businessmen? Her agenda and platforms are insulting and ridiculous to Americans. The Democrats have a platform of socialism and defeatism..

When our troops defeated fascism and socialism during WW2, they came home to a GDP of 300 billion ( England’s was 13 billion). They came home to a ticker tape parade, jobs, educational opportunity, and prosperity. It took one income to support a family. We still had the “extended family”. One income, would pay for that new house, that new American made washer, dryer, and fridge, that new American made Car, and that new American education for your children. It also paid for a retirement, a condo in Florida, and a cruise once a year.

When our patriotic troops helped defeat communism and the domino affect in Vietnam, they came home to “Baby killer”. They had no ticker tape parade. They came home to drug addiction, PTSD, Nixon and Watergate, oil crisis, race riots etc. And after Jimmy Carter, it now took two incomes to support a household. We now had the “Nuclear Family”. Divide and conquer. The government adjusted and expanded its budget to accommodate the two income family. LBJ would take care of our elderly.

When our dedicated American patriots come home from Iraq what will they find? Under “The Great socialist society lebensborn” platform of the current Democratic/Socialist party, they will find that it takes three service economy incomes to rent an apartment and buy a Chinese made car. They will come home to Tax and spend programs and bilingual school systems. In addition, they will not only have to pay for themselves on a service economy wage, they will have to pay for burgeoning medicare/medicaide entitlements, Social security, illegal alien social services, all manner of government spending, credit card debt, national healthcare, and military budget.
Housing and transportation costs are 10 times larger than in 1973. That $30,000 dollar house your folks paid for working at a GM plant now costs $300,000. Forget getting a loan from the parents, for they, along with the rest of America lost 70 percent of their 401ks at the end of the Clinton administration. 6 Trillion was lost to the 401ks of our citizens. How is it that Hillary made $100,000 on $10,000 during the same time period? Oh, and forget the equity in your parent’s home that they have paid on for 30 years., Under Hillarycare, Hillary education, and Hillarylebensborn, your equity is spoken for. She will get that too. Don’t worry, a part time job will be you coping strategy. Its called a working retirement in a service economy. Then there will be the Hillary death tax to support the education and social services for 15 million illegal aliens that they have done nothing about so as not to offend the Latino voter. Well that 10th through 1st generation (legal) American Latino family will just have to “suck it up” and pay like the rest of us.
One more thing, that war you fought in Iraq to create a free society and rid a country of a killing dictator, your president didn’t believe in it. She also didn’t believe in your wounded fellow soldiers. The lives your friends gave on the “field of Battle” furthering the Democratic way of life means nothing to Hillary Clinton. She is to busy destroying our Republic here at home.

This is the society our next generations have to look forward to under the liberal left.
Hillary considers her self a supporter of children’s rights. Her demonstrated lack of understanding of current business trends will do extreme harm to our next generations right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

The United Sates has the finest Universities and vocational schools in the world. The United States has the greatest opportunity for work, advancement and capital gain in the world. Republicans understand that if the individual takes full advantage of these institutions and the resources available in these great United States, one can develop the skills necessary to achieve the American dream. Republicans understand that keeping high paying manufacturing jobs in this country ensures a strong economy and viable tax base for the future. It is the responsibility of every individual to make and pay their own way. We reward education, vision, family and hard work. We do not encourage empathy. We do not reward lack luster goal setting, decadent values, and not taking advantage of what the U.S. has to offer. We defeated communism and we will not become communists... Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Socialist party want to change this country into a socialist country. They want to redistribute wealth in this country. They reward mediocrity, lack of initiative, and undisciplined behavior. They want to legislate, tax, and control every aspect of the human endeavor. The founders wanted limited government. Republicans want limited government and unlimited opportunity.

Duncan Hunter is a conservative Republican who supports freewill and determinism, limited government, limited taxes, privatized medicine, family values, right to life, peace through strength, America first, American Jobs. We have come full circle on what the Democrats are all about. It’s the same story. Tax and spend and let them eat cake. While Duncan is doing all he can to bring back high paying Manufacturing jobs such as “The steel Industry”, our Democratic/Socialists want to reward undisciplined behavior. Instead of rewarding strong family values, faith based organizations, right to life, education, work ethic, vision, goal setting, and limited government; they are trying to put band aids on the failed policies of decadence and Marxism.

Duncan Hunter has a platform for the future. A platform that takes advantage of our strengths. We will win for the Iraqi people. Then we will get back to the Republican Hallmark of fiscal responsibility, strong efficient military and family values. Unlike Carters transition from “Guns and Butter”, Republicans will see that we invest in infrastructure, Fair trade, and limited government. We have never been a people that take hand outs. We will give a “hand up” but not a “hand out”. If a person wants health care he or she can pay for it themselves. That is how it has always been in our system of government and capitalism. In fact that is how it is in 95 percent of the world. The Democratic /Socialist are taking advantage of our weaknesses. They are trying to expand the “Great Society” into the “Great Socialist Society”. It is the same story of silly unnecessary programs, tax, and spend! Hillary Clinton is saying more government, while Republicans are saying less. Duncan Hunter is our real choice here.
Please look at www.GoHunter08.com

By
Stephan Andrew Brodhead
Retired Air force Reservist, entrepreneur, and real estate investor
Hillsboro, Oregon

www.Iraqeraveterangibill.com

Posted by Stephan Andrew Brodhead | October 25, 2007 6:59 PM

As an educated democratic female I can tell you that this is false.
Alot of women are not impressed with Hillary. she is seen as someone who got where she is not by hard work, talent or ability but, by marriage.
it is interesting how this aspect is ignored. but, anything that may raise a question about Hillary's capability to be president is shoved aside for the daily grind of shoving her down our throats.
All the other candidates have worked for where they are by their own abilities and not through nepotism.
Hillary has not demonstrated why she should even be taken seriously.
All these woman who say they want a female president are lying as I did not see them flocking around Carol Mosley Braun when she ran. no, they are thinking they can turn back the clock to the 90s and with it maybe be 30 again.
Any thinking person knows Hillary has her career solely due to nepotism and while in the senate has not done anything of note. She has shown a lack of leadership as she is a follower. She has shown a lack of good judgment by voting not once but, twice for war.
She has her husband's machine behind her and again is going to get something for nothing. And as a result, the democrats Bush will act just like the real Bush and bring more disaster to us.
But, it is not Hillary's machine you cannot fight. That actually would be easy to beat. it's the media she is controlling and are willing to comply with her that you cannot beat. The average people in the country cannot compete with the media that has decided Hillary was to be anointed two years ago. How can you fight that?

Posted by vwcat | October 25, 2007 11:19 PM

You are right, vwcat, that it is the conventional media that is driving the Hillary push, creating the image that she is electable, that then fuels the polls. However, what is different this time is how the world of individual access to express opinions via posts, blogs, youtube, etc., has changed they way we can at least respond to strangled media. I can change it. You can change it. That is Obama's message, and as he says, sometimes it just takes one voice, or one plus one plus one plus one.... The behind the scenes momentum against Hillary is very strong,much stronger than the headlines would have the average person think, and Hillary knows it. I notice over and over again in responses to almost every NYTimes political article on Hilary the huge number of responses negative to her. Who are those polls talking to, unless it is people who are simply parroting what they have already seen predicted in the media? The vast number of intelligent, educated responses are clearly anti Hillary. People who take the time and care enough to post will also take the time to vote and to talk to others. In the end, we educated democrate females, and many others, will surprise the pollsters and the media moguls.

Posted by Kathy | October 26, 2007 4:03 PM