What's The Huckabee Problem?

Item: Mike Huckabee gets the most votes of those Value Voter voters who heard the presidential candidates speak in person. Huckabee did so well, I am told, that several impending endorsements of Mitt Romney were forestalled.

Item: Mike Huckabee has won many such straw polls.

Item: Mike Huckabee is exceedingly pro-life, exceptionally evangelical, a former pastor in the Southern Baptist Church; a proponent of covenant marriages.

Item: Mike Huckabee is that rare species of conservative Christians: the media sees him as a three-dimensional political figure.

Item: Mike Huckabee remains popular in Arkansas, a state that a Hillary Clinton nomination will put in play for Democrats.

Item: By rights, Mike Huckabee has more of a claim to an endorsement by socially conservative political leaders than any other candidate; more of a claim, certainly, that the man who, until three years ago, was functionally pro-choice and who bragged about out-gay-righting Ted Kennedy; etc...

And yet..

Huckabee is not going to get it. Sources say that a rough consensus has not gelled among the 40 or so evangelical leaders who met in private this weekend to figure out what to do next. Some are resigned -- not enthusiastic about, but resigned -- to the candidacy of Mitt Romney. The hope is that he feel indebted to social conservatives if they rally around him and will be thus inspired to reward them somehow in office.

Erick Erickson of RedState has a theory:

The social conservatives do not want to rally around Huckabee because he is as distasteful to fiscalcons as Rudy is to socons. Even Tony Perkins, the head of FRC, said he hoped the social conservative candidate would be palatable to the fiscal conservatives out there. Huckabee is not.

What he means is: the Club for Growth, principally, viscerally dislikes Huckabee because Huckabee raised taxes (he cut many more, but he also raised them) and refuses to apologize for it. And many conservative intellectuals think the Fair Tax, schema, which Huckabee supports, is loony. I think Erickson is about three-quarters right. I'm not sure how many fiscal conservatives vote on spending or deficits or subsidies. I'm pretty sure that members of the GOP donor class are happy with their tax cuts and the variety of promises from everybody that their corporate taxes will be cut, that the capital gains tax will be axed, that the estate death will die forever.

Here is a variation on the theory: the SoCon establishment in Washington fears Huckabee because Huckabee can empower social conservatives DIRECTLY, without the mediating influence, or dollars, of the SoCon establishment.

Putting these theories together:

Huckabee has an independent streak. The establishment is threatened. Their interests are at stake and they want candidates who are beholden to them. Huckabee doesn't fit the bill.

Comments

Who-ckabee would be great for turning someone's frown upside down, but the dopey, no specifics, health nazi version of Gomer Pyle is really not what this country wants as President. The only ones that want that are the same people who curse dinosaur bones and think they were put there by Satan.

Posted by PC | October 22, 2007 12:14 PM

Huckabee can take charge of America. Just listen to him. We need a President who speaks with autority and has a positive agenda. He is not afraid to put his heart on the line for what he stands for, and that's US, people, that's US!!!

Posted by mary | October 22, 2007 12:36 PM

Is Huckabee running for position of Pope? These theocrat rethugs never learn!

Posted by to | October 22, 2007 12:48 PM

I have favored Mike Huckabee for months and he has my vote if I have a chance to give it.
I believe he is a man of integrity and I believe if he did raise taxes, it would be with good reason and purpose.
I believe that most Americans don't mind paying taxes if they are used well and not frittered away.
I can't stand the thought of having to choose to either vote for Rudy - and try to wash of the stench later, or not vote and let Hillary walk away with it. Ick.
Give Mike a chance!

Posted by Margaret | October 22, 2007 1:03 PM

Huckabee is great on the social issues but but has a problem w/ Taxes and Government growth.

Here is a link to Club for growths paper on the Governors record in ARK
http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2007/01/a_report_on_mike_huckabees_fis.php

Taxes:
Immediately upon taking office, Governor Huckabee signed a sales tax hike in 1996 to fund the Games and Fishing Commission and the Department of Parks and Tourism (Cato Policy Analysis No. 315, 09/03/98).
He supported an internet sales tax in 2001 (Americans for Tax Reform 01/07/07).
He publicly opposed the repeal of a sales tax on groceries and medicine in 2002 (Arkansas News Bureau 08/30/02).
He signed bills raising taxes on gasoline (1999), cigarettes (2003) (Americans for Tax Reform 01/07/07), and a $5.25 per day bed-tax on private nursing home patients in 2001 (Arkansas New Bureau 03/01/01).
He proposed another sales take hike in 2002 to fund education improvements (Arkansas News Bureau 12/05/02).
He opposed a congressional measure to ban internet taxes in 2003 (Arkansas News Bureau 11/21/03).
In 2004, he allowed a 17% sales tax increase to become law (The Gurdon Times 03/02/04).

Under Governor Huckabee's watch, state spending increased a whopping 65.3% from 1996 to 2004, three times the rate of inflation (Americans for Tax Reform 01/07/07).

Regulations:

Raised the minimum wage in April 2006 from $5.15 to $6.25 an hour and encouraged Congress to take the same initiative on a national level (US Newswire 08/03/06), a proposal that President Bush and most congressional GOP members oppose.
Sought to take revenue from his tax hike proposal to be used on economic development projects in 2002 (AP, 11/22/02).
Threatened to investigate price-gouging after 9/11 if gasoline prices went up too high (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette 09/12/01).
Ordered regulatory agencies in Arkansas to investigate price-gouging in the nursing home industry (AP, 06/15/01).
Signed a bill into law that would prevent companies from raising their prices a mere 10% ahead of a natural disaster. Services like roof repair and tree removal were targeted (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 03/07/97).

School Choice:

Governor Huckabee is on record opposing the most important element of genuine school choice-voucher programs that allow poor students in failing public schools to attend private schools and inject much needed competition into a decrepit public education system-because of a concern about government control of parochial schools (Arkansas Times 09/22/05).

Posted by RAI | October 22, 2007 1:03 PM

Mike Huckabee, As Governor communted 111 sentences of convicted criminals. Many were violent offenders, including a convicted murder and a convicted rapist,who was paroled and later convicted of murdering a Woman in Missouri.

With conservates like Mike Huckabee, who needs liberals

Posted by Louie P | October 22, 2007 1:08 PM

Mike Huckabee, As Governor commuted 111 sentences of convicted criminals. Many were violent offenders, including a convicted murder and a convicted rapist,who was paroled and later convicted of murdering a Woman in Missouri.

With conservates like Mike Huckabee, who needs liberals

Posted by Louie P | October 22, 2007 1:09 PM

If social conservatives are honest with themselves, they know that Huckabee would never win in the general election. Heck, I consider myself very conservative, but many of his views on religious topics are far too outspoken for me. I am thrilled that he believes the earth is literally no more than about 6000 years old - but let's be honest that is a bit wacko for most of us. In order to win the general, a candidate has to be at least somewhat of a moderate on these types of issues. Huckabee is extreme.

Posted by David Glick | October 22, 2007 1:29 PM

It's nearly too late for Huckabee...

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by matt | October 22, 2007 2:08 PM

I agree that Huckabee is not in the control of the FRC...but he will be elected as the next President.

This is why, whatever our current state of affairs, most people...likely more than 80%, want a 'good' country. To do that you need a leader with Vision, Principles, Character. Huckabee is the only choice...he will totally dominate Hillary in the general election. American people are just wanting a 'good' person to lead them and help them make this a 'good' country. So you all talk all you want...but those are the facts.

As far as believing in a Creator...I do...I have an extensive science education...and our framers, they too believed in a Creator.

Posted by Paul Thompson | October 22, 2007 2:35 PM

Once again, Ambinder has his blinders on and doesn't discuss yet another major issue where Huck is wrong.

Please go to Huck's public appearances and ask him that question, then upload his response.

Posted by TLB | October 22, 2007 2:39 PM

TLB: And what do you propose a Govenor in Arkansas is supposed to do when the federal government is flooding his state with illegal immigrants ....succeed from the nation or set up vigilante mobs to hunt down the illegals? Personally, I believe that the majority of Americans will vote for him as the next president...who do you endorse?

Posted by Paul Thompson | October 22, 2007 4:09 PM

Huckabee's "problem" is that his independence, thoughtfulness, and basic human decency is readily apparent to anybody who listens to him for even 5 minutes. He's nobody's robot -- and the power elite won't stand for that. They want to crown the nominees of both parties, so that they win no matter who is elected. Huckabee doesn't fit into their plans, so he has to be derided, his success ignored, and his potential shunned. Incidentally, I say that as someone who disagrees with Huckabee on probably 80 percent of public policy issues. But I like him personally, which is more than I can say for several of the candidates in both parties.

Posted by David | October 22, 2007 6:16 PM

of the SoCon establishment
The term SoCon refers to the Southern Conference, and only the Southern Conference. Please keep presidential politics away from college football.

See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socon

Posted by guineapigfury | October 22, 2007 6:40 PM

I have been noticing Mike Huckabee for several weeks now. He is the only candidate who actually answers questions that are asked of him, instead of contorting his response into a canned answer to some topic he wants to get aired. His responses to questions are swift, intelligent and eloquent on any subject he is asked about. He does not dance around answers, he could educate McCain on what "straight talk" really is. Presidents do not write tax policy, they recommend it, sign it or veto it. Any proposed tax increases or decreases will be hashed out in the legislature. When all the pieces are put together Mike Huckabee has more of what we need to get this country back on the "right" track.

Posted by Patti | October 22, 2007 6:44 PM

Run Huckabee against Clinton, and it might be the first time I vote Republican.

Posted by Carrington Ward | October 22, 2007 7:14 PM

Huckabee is the only candidate ACROSS THE BOARD who is sincere about turning this country into a better place and has the MOST experience.

All the others spout out typical political blah, blah, blah's that I've heard for 40 years. I know about the fiscal concerns but when you understand the entirety of what he did, he CUT CUT CUT taxes!

AND he wants to eliminate the IRS AKA: The Gestapo! I've decided to vote for Mike!

Posted by Jill | October 22, 2007 7:51 PM

Marc,

As always, very interesting stuff and I think you're theory is accurate but not entirely explanatory.

Huckabee has some flaws as a candidate, some he's dealt with and some he still needs to deal with. At this moment, his major challenge to capitalizing on on his strong debate performances and affable personality is his failure to crystallize his candidacy.

He has yet to paint for voters a clear and simple picture of what a Huckabee administration would mean, it's difficult for people to get a snapshot of his "vision" and further he hasn't been aggressive enough in challenging the electability of his opponents.

I flushed this argument out a bit more at 2008Central.net in response to your post.

Posted by AsC from 2008Central.net | October 22, 2007 9:39 PM

How can we trust a man to become president when he outright lies about having gastric bypass?

Posted by L | October 23, 2007 3:27 AM

I've followed Huckabee for quite a while now, and he does seem to be a nice enough fellow and I've really wanted to like him. However I've been a bit concerned how his opinions have either changed or been modified in recent months based on what it seems is most popular with the Republican base.

Something is not quite right ... I feel like he's really trying, but almost trying too hard to meet the needs of whatever the latest poll is saying. My feeling is if he were to win, we'll end up with someone who changes his opinions again once he's in the White House.

Posted by Rich | October 23, 2007 4:39 AM

Mike Huckabee is the obvious choice for social AND fiscal conservatives this year. He cut taxes more than 90 times as governor of Arkansas and left a budget surplus of $850 million. The main reason that the social conservative leaders are not supporting Mike Huckabee is because there has been a "group think" mentality that the governor is unelectable. They are also focused on having access to the next president and that is why some are trying to read the polls and get on board with a Romney or Thompson, hoping their race horse will bring them exclusive access and the power that comes with it down the road.

It is taking the grassroots activists getting behind Governor Huckabee now to up-end the false theory that he can not win. Not only will this election shake up the Republican Party, but it may very well shake up the power structure of the Christian right.

Posted by Florida for Huckabee | October 23, 2007 8:01 AM

Every time Huck opens his mouth he sounds and looks just like Gomer Pile. I can't vote for that.

Not to mention the fact that he is less of a social conservative than Romney. He has no money, no organization, and he likes the simple minded flat tax because it sounds good. He has a terrible record on taxes and is a proven big government guy.

Posted by PC | October 23, 2007 9:32 AM

I haven't looked at Mike Huckabee much until this week. It appears that the social conservatives love the man, the fiscal conservatives say he's not a fiscal conservative. The comnents above seem to share that opinion

We do need a man with vision, character, on social issues (this fits Mike Huckabee)....our nation deseparately needs a President that can work on fiscal stability. (Social Security, health care, military, education) Mike Huckabee doesn't appear to have a very good record as a fiscal conservative. We have many many fiscal issues on the table as well as moral issues. I have heard but cannot comfirm that Huckee is weak on immigration. I will do my research on that point.

I will take a good look at Mitt Romney. He seems strong on both counts.

Posted by thinkingitthrough | October 23, 2007 12:33 PM

Huckabee will be the next president! He says all the tbings I think. It really causes sadness to me when I hear the so called religious leaders talk of how they cannot support him. It makes me sick. It tells me that they are looking for the wrong things. Huckabee is the best communicator that has ever been in the replican field. That is what we need in this counry today is a leader who can communicate with the people and congress. Wake up people, Huckabee will go down as the best president ever.

Posted by Mike M | October 23, 2007 10:19 PM

Rich, who do you think you are kidding. I've followed Huckabee too. Whether you like him or not, he's been solid as a rock in maintaining his positions. Please give me one example where he's done the "Romney flop."

Posted by John | October 23, 2007 11:39 PM

Mike Huckabee does not believe in Evolution. That should disqualify you for all public office. PLEASE, let's not try to elect another deluded space case into the office. 8 years of "The Tyranny of the Stupid" is enough.

Posted by Bumbledoor | October 24, 2007 12:20 AM

Mike Huckabee has never made an assertion about the age of the earth. He said that however and however long creation took, he believes God was responsible.

Posted by Larry Perrault | October 24, 2007 12:26 AM

Whether one agrees with Huckabee or not, it seems very clear, he stands out more and more.
As his supporter, I watched almost all his interviews, debates, and letures. I can honestly say that those opponents for the reasons other than religious ideological issues such as Creationism rather than evolutionism, haven't studied enough about him.

I wish they could spent more time listening and questioning him before they made a judgement. As far as I am concerned, I can't think of better candidate for presidency than Mike Huckabee.

Posted by Barnabas Park | October 24, 2007 2:10 AM

The key thing he said in the debate was that the Republican party needs to extend itself to the African-American and Latino communities, and its leadership. Without an openess and a willingness to speak to these constituencies, the Republicans will always seem the party of rich white folks to them. The reality is like Huckabee said; "The Republican party has the policies that will best serve these communities but we don't try to get the message out to the people in those communities. I will.", he said. 'Bout time to face our demons and Huckabee seems to talk the talk. Huckabee should seek opportunities to speak on black college campuses, at meetings of black professional organizations like the Nat. Bar Assoc. etc. Get his message out to the masses beyond Jesse and Al. He is electable and Latino's and African-Americans are quite religious as well. Pastors and Priests are held in high esteem. ( Jesse and Al)

Posted by fred | October 24, 2007 4:01 AM

One of Mike Huckabee's supporters wrote "he can sell ice to Eskimos" another writes " Mike Huckabee won me over." Yet another writes "Huck demonstrated the same smooth, articulate, can-sell-snake-oil-to-a-merchant demeanor."

An eyewitness to the convention wrote:

"I’ve attended plenty of speeches, conventions, and conferences, and I have never seen a speaker receive so many cheers standing ovations. From the moment Huckabee walked on stage, you could feel the excitement brewing. I may sound partial, but you’d almost have to be there to understand. With an ease in his manner and a genuine tone of voice, he started off his first few minutes by joking with the crowd.
Moving on to immigration, about which he has been challenged by conservatives for taking a liberal stance, Huckabee was careful with his words. He blamed our federal government for the current problem rather than those who have come here illegally; saying that it is the government’s responsibility to protect the borders. While he correctly targeted the federal administration and the corporations who have hired illegal immigrants, he was silent about why he chooses not to hold the aliens accountable (I would have liked to hear some of his insights, since this view is inexplicable to me). Instead, he cleverly switched the topic to express some words of patriotism as an American who was “thankful that this country is one that people are trying to break into, not one that they are trying to break out of."

The attendee continues her explanation of the grand speech and closes with these words.

"Preach it, Pastor."

Governor Huckabee knows how to stir emotion. Conversions to God and the vilest mobs have been formed by people who can stir emotion.

Mike Huckabee has charisma. He can "sell ice to Eskimos". I like the guy, but I don't trust him with America's problems. I think he makes a great pastor, but there are big questions to how he would govern. His charisma reminds me of Bill Clinton. He brings crowds alive. Crowds that believe socially the same as the candidate. I want him to talk heavy non-value issues. I believe him on the value issues. I need depth on international relations, immigration, taxes, health care, etc. Does he walk the talk on these issues???

Governor Huckabee's fiscal conservativeness does not show in his Governorship of Arkansas. I hope people will look into his record. I believe he is sincere in his social beliefs but I do not believe he is a strong fiscal conservative.

I think he makes a great pastor, he can pound the pulpit, but there are big questions to how he would govern. His charisma reminds me of Bill Clinton. He brings crowds alive. Crowds that believe socially the same as the candidate. I want him to talk heavily on less religious issues. I believe he is conservative on the value issues. I need depth on issues such as management, foreign affairs, , immigration, taxes, health care, social security, education, military etc.

I just can't be be sold on someone who might be really good at selling snake oil to a merchant.

Posted by Wendy | October 24, 2007 1:30 PM

Mike Huckabee - The next President of the United states!

Posted by Lou | October 24, 2007 6:19 PM

The true reason why those hypoctrites won't back Huckabee is in this articte in the times, I will definetely vote for him, so will the rest of SC:

Christians should vote their conscience

I am a Christian. I am a conservative. I believe in the democratic process and believe it is the moral imperative that devout Christians involve themselves in the political process to make our society more fair and just for all.

Like most Christian conservatives, I gather information from Christian commentators in the media to help me cast my vote. As a responsible Christian, I am required to put all their words into passionate scrutiny to prevent the perversion of our faith.

My passion for seeing Christian values advanced in the political realm is matched only by my disappointment in those who represent those values but then sell them out for status or, even worse, money.

It has become obvious that Tony Perkins, Gary Bauer, Richard Land and James Dobson have sold their influence over Christian voters to the highest bidder. They are trying to destroy every Republican candidate except multimillionaire Mitt Romney, with the hope that he somehow will become our only choice. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Mr. Romney was pro-abortion, pro-gun control and pro-gay civil union as governor of Taxachusetts.

American Christian voters will show these Christian leaders that we are sophisticated enough to recognize when a Christian leader has sold his influence.

We will not turn the presidential race into a plutocracy that makes it about how rich a candidate is instead of about the character and principles the candidate will bring to the presidency.

Posted by Sean | October 24, 2007 9:26 PM

I do not think we will need the endorsement of the likes of Tony Perkins or James Dobson. Why? Marc said it well, he speaks directly to his constituency and does it well. He will not need the moderator. It would certainly be nice if the leadership of the right wing lobby stuck o their principles though.

And the Club for Growth is nto to be trusted, they are placing rigid criteria on a man who had to deal with situations in an overwhelmingly liberal state. Think of the cost to the Arkansas taxpayer if Mike Huckabee was not fighting on their behalf against liberals constantly trying to sully his name and reputation.

When the conservatives are doing such a great job of assassinating the character of a great conservative man, why would we ever need the liberal press?

Posted by chukmaty | October 25, 2007 5:12 PM

Wendy:

The reason people don't blame the immigrants is because it makes no sense. It should be obvious to anyone that millions or billions of people stuck in poverty, disease, corruption, even hunger in Mexico or Guatemala or Haiti or Russia or China or all the other places people set out from come here empty handed with nothing but a Dream of America. This is the greatest country in the World, the great experiment in democracy and freedom and OPPORTUNITY. During the worst recession, or under the worst administration, the opportunity in the U.S. is something most of the world dreams of. The idea that your children can go to college, your grandkids can become doctors and lawyers when the school in your villiage stops at ten years old is one that burns in the brains of smart, ambitious parents around the world.

That said, can we as a nation just accept everyone who wants to be here? I say no. For a nation of people whose common element is that their ancestors crossed thousands of miles of oceans or deserts to be Americans to want to criminalize the dream of being American is never going to work. The government simply must institute and execute a smart, sustainable immigration policy that maintains the dream that is America BOTH for those of us lucky enough to be born American and those smart enough to want their children to be.

Posted by Aaron | October 26, 2007 3:51 PM

I wouldn't call passing Mitt "Moneybags" Romney in the polls a problem.

His problem is that people having been smearing his name by misleading people about his conservative credentials.

He is strong on Illegal Immigration

He is the most vocal about maintain our sovereignty against international forces that have been seeking to subvert us, and destroy our borders.

Their is no one seeking election that has been as active in defending our 2nd amendment right to keep and bear arms, even if they are automatic weapons. And that the 2nd amendment is not for game hunting but for defending oneself and ones family against personal harm, foreign invasions, and ones own government should it abandon the Constitution.

He is strong on taxes, he managed to lower taxes 90 times in a state dominated by a democratic monopoly in the legislature and at all levels of government. The tax hikes in his administration were primarily through state referendum of court order. And the ones that he did allow actually prevented much larger taxes later. he left the state with a surplus. Huckabee was fiscally responsible and pragmatic. He got the job done and the only folks who disagree are bing payed over a hundred thousand dollars by an anonymous source to do so.

These hack jobs against a man of strong conservative values MUST be called for what they are. We need to acknowledge that not only is Mike Huckabee the best choice we have now, but that he may be the best choice we have had in years and there may not be another one quite like him ever again.

Posted by nathaniel | October 28, 2007 10:32 PM

We are being taxed to death people,our taxes that we pay at the end of the year are only going to pay the interest on the national debt.It is illegal,there is not a law that says we are to pay taxes.Go to you tube type in freedom to fascism by the late aaron russo.Wake up people it is time for a revolution.....a Ron Paul revolution.... Vote Ron Paul......Our founding fathers would all agree!

Posted by Floyd | October 29, 2007 4:53 PM

Ron Paul is best on outsider, and NO to taxes, and even for small gov't.

But I want the US to win in Iraq, so prefer others on that very important issue (altho as the Anbar Awakening + surge create victory, the importance of staying goes down).

Romney has similar flippery problem as Kerry had; his failure to gain more enthusiastic supporters means, despite Hugh Hewitt and Greg Mankiw, that the pro-life get-out-the vote folk won't be so strong for him (altho, when the choice is against Hillary, maybe an October rejuvenation -- for whichever Rep gets the nomination).
No pro-choice Rudy. No pro-amnesty, anti-free speech McCain (but great on Iraq).

Huckabee is mostly likely to actually win in 2008 if he's nominated, partly because he IS willing to raise some taxes "if necessary" -- and compromise is needed to get legislation passed. Having a surplus at the end means that spending didn't balloon as much as it could have.

"We don't need no stinking badges, er, elites telling us who is best for us."

Posted by Tom Grey - Liberty Dad | November 6, 2007 11:50 AM

I live in Massachusetts and saw the chameleon-like changes in Mitt Romney's skin--just in time for the next election. Don't trust him, fellow Americans!
Mike Huckabee has my vote, my prayers and my money--$2300 worth of it.

Posted by Christine Winters | November 13, 2007 12:51 AM