Why Is Rudy Campaigning In New Jersey?

For Rudy Giuliani, so far as the Feb. 5 primary goes, New Jersey is a shiny Yale lock. He is a favorite son, his campaign manager is the most powerful (not-for-sale) Republican in the state right now, the state party changed its rules to give the winner of the primary all of the delegates, and he's extracted more than $2M for his race.

Suffice it to say, the reason why Rudy Giuliani has traveled to New Jersey six times for campaign events only is that he is beginning to concern himself with the state's 15 electoral votes. (He's in Ocean View and Cape May today).

Democrats will not concede the state to Giuliani -- right now, Hillary and Rudy run neck-and-neck, but they do acknowledge that, at the very least, the Democratic presidential candidate will be forced to spend in excess of $5M -- maybe even$10M -- in the extremely expensive New York / Philadelphia media markets in order to remain competitive.

New Jersey's independents usually swing to the Democrat at the end, but they invariably give Republicans reasons for hope... generally in September. (See here). The last Republican to win the state's electoral votes was George H. W. Bush.

Giuliani's campaign also believes only Giuliani can put Connecticut and Pennsylvania in play, and have used the argument to bolster their contention that he's the most electable of all Republicans.

(Democrats Clinton, Edwards and Obama can plausibly argue that they can expand the map: Iowa, New Mexico, Arkansas, Florida, maybe even Kentucky, probably not North Carolina, maybe Arizona).

Comments

For God's sake, the media should stop this false rumor that somehow Giuliani can win NJ; NJ is a Democratic state; it always remains murky for the Democrats because NJ hates its politicians.

In the end, they break towards Democrats (see Lautenberg in 2002 and Menendez in 2006)

It happens ALL the time; GOP think that they have a shot and they end up putting $10M, not the other way around.

Giuliani can surely try to win PA, but that is for all the candidates. Nothing special about him.

So Marc, stop this rumor and put an end to it.

Posted by American | October 1, 2007 12:09 PM

If we are talking about expanding the map, where is the mention of Virginia. According to the most recent polling, Hillary would win Virginia against any of the top tier Republicans, if the election were held today.

It is exceedingly more likely that the Democrat breaks 350 electoral votes (Kerry plus Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Iowa and New Mexico) than that the GOP wins.

Posted by Ephus | October 1, 2007 1:12 PM

I think NJ votes have to choose between the Crooked Dems and the Christian Right and as stuck with the Dems, but Rudy can changed that.

Posted by Paul8148 | October 1, 2007 1:40 PM

I agree - an expansion would include OH, NM, plus potentially MO.

Posted by cms | October 1, 2007 1:43 PM