“I am very grateful that this difficult day has ended so well. All of my campaign staff and volunteers are safe. I want to thank them for their extraordinary courage and coolness under some very difficult pressures and dangerous situations. I also want to thank all of law enforcement. We were in touch from the moment this began with local, county, state, federal law enforcement. I am so grateful to them for their response which brought this hostage situation to such a good ending.
“I also want to thank Governor Lynch who was extremely helpful in marshalling the resources of the state and working with the local law enforcement officials to make sure that all resources were available. The FBI and the Secret Service lent their expertise and help as well. I was in touch during the day with the families of those who were held hostage and I really commend their extraordinary courage under, again, very difficult circumstances. This has been a very hard day for all of us in our campaign.
“But even beyond that, every four years extraordinary young people come to places like New Hampshire because they want to change our country. They believe in our future. They work around the clock. They are so committed to their cause and I just want to commend every one of them from every campaign who really makes what is a sacrifice and a commitment. A lot of them postpone school, leave their families, move across the country and I’m so grateful for them every single day and I’m especially just relieved to have this situation end so peacefully without anyone being injured.
“We don’t have very many facts beyond, what we garnered during the day. I am on my way to New Hampshire now to thank the law enforcement officials, to see my staff – particularly those who not only were physically held hostage, but all those who supported this effort during the day to make sure we got information, that we kept families apprised, that we closely coordinated with law enforcement. And I could just not be prouder at the people who are in my campaign. And I want to thank them and I am so grateful that this day has ended well.”
Campaigns Shut Down In New Hampshire
Several Democratic campaigns shut down their New Hampshire field offices and sent staffers home early.
And junior and mid-level members Hillary Clinton's national campaign staff have also been sent home.
Clinton Campaign Statement
"There is an ongoing situation in our Rochester, NH office. We are in close contact with state and local authorities and are acting at their direction. We will release additional details as appropriate."
Clinton Cancels Speech
VIENNA, VA -- Sen. Hillary Clinton has canceled her speech to the Democratic National Committee this afternoon.
The reason, according to Democratic officials, was not security: it was that Clinton did not want to give a rah-rah speech to Democratic National Committee activists amid s hostage crisis at her Rochester, NH campaign headquarters.
Clinton's aides are mum -- partly because they don't know what's happening and partly because they don't want to exacerbate the situation any further.
Outside the grand ballroom, young party activists traded phone calls with friends in New Hampshire looking for any word. Reporters crowded around a hotel bar and watched live television coverage.
Clinton's national headquarters in Arlington, VA has a very elaborate security system. The Secret Service has advised both Clinton and Obama on headquarters security.
But the major campaigns have roughly 50 field offices each -- there's no real way to protect them, and indeed, no incentive to: they are supposed be highly visible and highly accessible.
Clinton is scheduled to campaign in Iowa this weekend.
How Much Money Has Mike Huckabee Spent In Iowa?
For his troubles?
$327,000, approximately, according to his campaign.
How much has Mitt Romney spent?
$7 million.
Clinton Rachets Up Contrast With Obama On Health Care
For a few months, a Barack Obama television ad in New Hampshire has touted his health care plan's promise to cover everyone.
Today, Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, in remarks aimed at Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, called the claim "completely false" and "should be taken off the air."
Neera Tandem, Clinton's policy adviser, said: "Choosing to forgo a mandate [means] it is not universal."
But reporters on this conference call had questions for Tanden. Ron Brownstein wanted to know, in absence of any information about how much money lower income families would have to spend on health care before having spent enough to qualify for subsidies, how could the campaign know that everyone would be covered?
A Los Angeles Times reporter wanted to know how Clinton's mandate would be enforced. "She would enforce her mandate through default enrollment," Tanden said.
Those who, for example, go to the emergency room and are found to lack insurance would be automatically enroll.(John Edwards's plan has a similar mechanism).
By way of rebuttal, Obama's advisers circulated comments by MIT's Jonathan Gruber, a Clinton adviser, who acknowledged that any plan short of "single payer" would allow about a percent and a half of the U.S. population -- around 2 million people -- to go without coverage.
Though the ad has been around for months, Clinton's team may have been prompted to act in the wake of a withering column by New York Times's Paul Krugman. His lede is:
"From the beginning, advocates of universal health care were troubled by the incompleteness of Barack Obama’s plan, which unlike those of his Democratic rivals wouldn’t cover everyone. But they were willing to cut Mr. Obama slack on the issue, assuming that in the end he would do the right thing."
For the Clinton campaign, the debate encapsulates their core argument against Obama: that Clinton's experience gives her a font of knowledge and judgment on critical issues that Obama simply lacks.
Bill Burton, Obama's spokesman, says: "The Clinton campaign didn't say a word when this ad was released a month ago, and the only thing that's changed since then is the poll numbers. The truth is, Barack Obama's universal plan will provide coverage to every single American who can't afford it and do more to cut the cost of health care than any other plan in this race. Rather than spending their time attacking Barack Obama, the Clinton campaign should explain how exactly they plan to force every American to buy health insurance even if they can't afford it."
Where We Are
The political world seems to be traveling on three tracks, a metaphor that probably occurred to me because I was carried home by the Acela last night Immigration, Giuliani's ethics and Mike Huckabee's fabulousness. All three stories are losing their freshness.
All are, yes, about Republicans and Republican-things.
The Democrats, for once, have had a fairly quiet week, as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton clashed mainly over the substance of their health care proposals. This weekend, with two Democratic debates, including Saturday night's first ever forum broadcast in high def, perhaps the attention will shift.
Can the press cover two campaigns at once? That is -- can it give due weight and attention to two campaigns at once? For most of the summer and fall, whenever both Democrats and Republicans had weeks, the Democratic contest always seemed to get higher billing on the network news rundowns.
This was really the first week in memory where Republicans won the battle for attention spans.
November 29, 2007
Obama Gets His Morning Coffee With Bloomberg
(Don't wait for Drudge to develop his story -- read it here, first!)
At 7:45 this morning, Sen. Barack Obama will set vice presidential speculation on fire with a brief stop to say hello to New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, himself an occasional presidential flirt. The meeting appeared on Bloomberg's schedule, which was distributed to reporters last night.
An Obama aide said the meeting was scheduled because of "mutual interest" and did not know whether the two had met before.
More coffee than ticket talk, though -- and Obama had better be brief. He's due to speak at the Democratic National Committee's winter meeting in Vienna, Virginia around noon.
Obama was in New York Thursday for a day of fundraisers, including a young professionals event at Harlem's historic Apollo theater. He also grabbed a burger or three at a local White Castle.
Here Is The Full Version Of Fred Thompson's YouTube Submission
The Daily Five
1. Tomorrow, the Democratic presidential candidates attend the winter meeting of the Democratic National Committee in Tyson's Corner, Virginia....DNC delegates will also attend a private session with all campaign managers....Obama to return to Iowa over the weekend....
2. Mitt Romney files requisite number of signatures to qualify for Virginia ballot....Giuliani campaign will soon follow suit; ballot deadline is Dec. 10....Republican candidates issue statements mourning death of Ex-Rep. Henry Hyde...Democratic candidates are silent.
3. Former President Clinton, on Trent Lott, per C-SPAN: "You know, I like old Trent, I had good relationships with him, and I hope he's not sick."...... could "uncommitted" defeat Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ballot in Michigan?....
5. Alliance for Marriage, with opposes gay marriage, claims evidence that Tim Gill, the wealthy Colorado gay financier, bankrolled campaigns that defeated four anti-gay Republicans in Virginia, helping to flip control of the state legislature there. For background, click here.
On Tonight's CBS Evening News
In an exclusive interview with Katie Couric, Rudy Giuliani responds to the Politico's report.
Joe Lhota, an ex-mayoral aide, previews Giuliani's defense in a statement his campaign just released to reporters:
“To ensure the safety of the Mayor of the City of New York and his family, the NYPD assigned security to them on a 24/7/365 basis. The cost of this security was paid by the NYPD budget. Dating back as far as the Mayor’s first term in office, the practice was that when security-related expenses were incurred, they were paid for with an Office of the Mayor credit card. The practice was put into place to ensure timely payment and the monthly credit card bill was paid promptly from the Mayor’s Office budget. Such costs were allocated throughout the various divisions within Mayor’s office. Sometime there after, but before the end of each fiscal year, the NYPD would reimburse the Office of the Mayor for such expenditures and therefore these divisions were never deprived of any monies.”
(** I'm now a CBS consultant, so I guess you could say I'm paid to plug CBS...)
Log Cabins Bash Romney On Taxes, In New Hampshire
The gay Republican group is tweaking former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney for a "Mitt-Flop" on taxes. The ad airs on New Hampshire radio.
Craig Stevens, a Romney spokesman, said that the group was just sore that Romney opposed same-sex marriage.
Clinton On His Records
A long, and not unpersuasive explanation from President Clinton about the Little Rock library and his records, from an interview Mr. Clinton gave to C-SPAN.
CLINTON: First of all, since this law that we’re operating under now has been in effect – that is, from President Reagan forward – I have worked to release more records more quickly than anybody else.
I want this stuff out there.
Some of it may be misused, and some people may want it for reasons that are not entirely academic, but that’s OK. I want the records out there.
I wanted to give all of my records to the 9/11 Commission. I wanted all the support necessary. And we kept meticulous records, and I wanted to give it to them.
The public has to know, they’re not my records. They belong to, and under the jurisdiction of the Archives. But I have the power to keep all of them closed for 12 years. I didn’t do that. We’ve released about a million pages already.
I want to push the release of more, including the request for documents about Hillary’s time in the White House. They’ll show how hard she worked on a wide variety of issues, and what she did in her travels around the world to advance America’s cause. So, I’d like it if the records got out there.
But there are certain rules the Archives has about reviewing them. Then they have to go to the – then we review them. And then the White House has requested the right to review some of them. Now, they’re being pretty good now, the White House is, about letting them out.
The Archives has some rules. They have a strict first-come, first-served policy. And they also, when they send us documents, they won’t release them until we review them all.
So, for example, the other day – as soon as this controversy arose, Bruce Lindsey, who has other things to do, had 26,000 pages of documents to review. He had already reviewed 20,000.
So, he said, “Let’s give the people 20,000 documents.”
And the Archives said, “No. We don’t release one page until you get all 26,000.”
I don’t know why that’s their policy.
But we have asked them – I have asked them already on two occasions if they would speed up a particular release, and they declined to do so. That’s OK. But the American public just needs to know, we’re getting this stuff out as soon as we can.
There was a request, I think, for all of Hillary’s schedules. And I think that’ll be out sometime in January.
But someone literally has to review all that. I don’t think people understand how time consuming it is.
For example, on her schedule, if there is an advance person – as there was, you know – let’s say she represents America in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, in my first term, each one of those places where she stopped, there was an advance person.
If there was a private cell phone number there, the archivist has to go through and mark that out for privacy reasons, just on the off chance that they still have the same cell phone number.
If there were the names of Secret Service agents or a list in questionable places of how many agents were there, they mark that out so they won’t be giving deployment information.
Those are their rules, not mine. And I get why they do it.
But we’re not trying to hold up anything. I am pushing this faster than any of my predecessors since the new law has been enacted.
A Response From FairTax.org
Ken Hoagland, Fairtax.org's communications director, writes, in response to this post:
For the most part your report was accurate except to say that we have shut down our Iowa operations. That's not so although one of our former field staff apparently thinks so. The FairTax bus will be in Iowa on Monday, we still have an Iowa Field Coordinator employed and we are still doing talk shows, op-eds, letters and a lot of work on the Internet.
Beyond that, we have hundreds of thousands of ardent supporters who carry the message forward and who are working every day to see the FairTax not only embraced by candidates but enacted by Congress. Do we have a way to go? Certainly. Wresting their favorite power and profit game away from Congress is no small task but with 68 co-sponsors now--more than ever before and more than any other reform tax proposal--we are not mourning but celebrating our progress.
We made a judgment early this year to go full speed toward the Iowa Straw Poll, to hold a 10,000 person rally in South Carolina and to increase our organizing work in South Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire. We achieved all of our goals and in so doing, exhausted much of bank account--but not all. While we have now regrouped and cut HQ overhead, we are poised to rise phoenix-like again, this time from the ashes of our successes and continue building on the growth that we have achieved.
Our direct mail program is on track to begin in January, our contract with the Internet marketing firm Convio (the folks who helped Mr. Dean a while back) is in place and our membership continues to grow.
All this is to say--don't count us out yet Marc. If it was easy we would already have a better tax system.
Does Huckabee Have The Guts To Criticize The Clintons?
Remember:
In 1996, Huckabee skipped the Republican National Convention in San Diego that he did not want to be forced to criticize Bill Clinton. Huckabee was the party's pride and joy at the time -- its newest governor. Aide Rex Nelson told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette at the time at Huckabee was concerned about "the possibility of Arkansas-bashing at the convention." He did not want to be put in a position to have to defend his state.
Huckabee has become friendly will Bill Clinton since then, collaborating with him on an anti-obesity initiative.
If Huckabee is chosen as the vice presidential nominee, he'll be in the critic's cat-bird seat.
And check out this quote from Mitt Romney on this a.m's "Morning Joe":
SCARBOROUGH: Governor huckabee has been -- some of the media believe governor huckabee has gotten a free ride from us and others, because he's been the smiling, happy warrior out there, but tim russert talked this morning of people looking into mike huckabee's finances. Is there a reason for governor huckabee to be concerned about money that he took while he was governor of arkansas?
GOV. ROMNEY: You know, that's something that the investigators will have to take a look at. I know there were a number of ethical charges and fines and that's reminiscent of the clinton years. I think the bigger problem relates to the fact that he was soft on illegal immigration and that he raised spending in the state from 6 to $16 billion and he raised sales taxes, taxes on groceries and on nursery homes, i don't think america is going to choose somebody who is soft on immigration and hard on taxpayers.
That NYC Tab Wood...
The New York Daily News:
TWISTS FOR HIS TRYSTS
(Here's the online version).
The more Rudy friendly Post has an inside article...
Atlantic Umpire: Does Romney Want South Carolina Republicans To Think He Favors An Immediate Constitutional Ban On Abortion?
But wants a broader audience to think he'd go a little slower?
It's unclear.
Romney, in a direct mail piece he's distributed to South Carolina Republicans, brags he's the: "The only major presidential candidate who supports the Republican Party's pro-life platform: A constitutional amendment banning abortion nationwide."
(The piece was evidently written before Mike Huckabee's rise...)
Last night, Romney said:
"We should overturn Roe v. Wade and return these issues to the states. I would welcome a circumstance where there was such a consensus in this country that said we don't want to have abortion in this country at all period? That would be wonderful. I would be delighted … to sign that bill. but that's not where we are. That's not where America is today. Where America is ready to overturn Roe v. Wade and return to the states that authority."
(And, of course, there's this oldie, but goodie, from Romney's seminal 2005 op-ed on his abortion transformation: "The nation remains so divided over abortion, I believe that the states, through the democratic process, should determine their own abortion laws and not have them dictated by judicial mandate." )
Terry Sullivan, Romney's South Carolina state director, said the mailing accurately described Romney's view.
"There is absolutely no difference what-so-ever. Overturning Roe v. Wade is the first step. Then when there is a chance to get 2/3 or realistically ¾ of the states to ratify a Constitutional Amendment we should do exactly that… as the Governor said. “don't want to have abortion in this country at all period? That would be wonderful. I would be delighted … to sign that bill.”
Says Sullivan: "Governor Romney, If elected, would publicly support an amendment."
And it's true that neither Fred Thompson nor Rudy Giuliani would.
November 28, 2007
Gay Questioner On HRC Committee
Keith Kerr, the retired brigadier general who asked the gays-in-the-military question at tonight's debate is, in fact, on Hillary Clinton's LGBT steering committee.
He has a right to ask a question, but CNN probably (had they known this) should have disclosed it.
The Other Rudy Story...
Rudy's Ties to a Terror Sheikh Giuliani's business contracts tie him to the man who let 9/11's mastermind escape the FBI By Wayne Barrett.
An excerpt:
"....the launching of a cozy business relationship with terrorist-tolerant Qatar that is inconsistent with the core message of Giuliani's current presidential campaign, namely that his experience and toughness uniquely equip him to protect America from what he tauntingly calls "Islamic terrorists"—an enemy that he always portrays himself as ready to confront, and the Democrats as ready to accommodate.
The Debate In Review
The leading Republican presidential candidates fought about a lot, but in the end, for many (not all) of the issues on which they disagreed, there’s really no way to figure out how a President Huckabee would differ from a President Romney on immigration policy.
Also: where was health care? It’s a huge issue in Florida, but it came up not once... So don’t be upset that I’m going to skip the substance and get to the style:
McCain’s mix of resigned sighs, sober mien and sense of humor went over well with a crowd that seemed predisposed to be wary of him. He drew out Ron Paul on the war (before Giuliani had the chance to), and it proved a very clear exchange of principles and a very good YouTube moment for McCain. There was a long period of time during the middle of the debate – probably 25 minutes – where he did not get to answer one question. But then he and Mitt Romney debated – actually debated – the question of waterboarding. McCain got the better of the exchange, but he always gets the better of exchanges on the subject. It’s not clear whether the Republican base agrees that waterboarding, even if torturous, should not be applied to enemy combatants. But the press will lap it up – and so might New Hampshire independents. McCain has as good a night as a candidate can have if you consider what the average Republican and Republican-leaning independent in the Granite State are looking for.
Giuliani had a an “eh” to “poor” night. He seemed deflated. A little defensive. Perfunctory answers on the literal truth of the bible and on abortion. Nothing out of the ordinary, but no memorable moments outside of his exchanges with Romney, where he was flustered and a little aggressive.
Thompson: He gets more comfortable with every debate. Tonight, he repeatedly matched parts of his resume to the issues at hand, a way of answering the lingering question that he’s checked out. It was a very good performance in a state he needs to pump his numbers. His answer on guns was very clear and strong.
Huckabee held his own and was not really subjected to close scrutiny. A strong answer for his Iowa audience on the bible.
Romney had a strong night, seemed raring to go, seemed to be willing to take on everybody,
anybody, all comers, seemed to want to pick every fight possible. It’s as if Alex Gage whispered to Romney as he went on stage: “Governor, remember: you want the headlines to be “Romney Fights For Conservative Principles.”
The early fireworks between Giuliani and Romney had a thin quality to it, as if they were nitpitcking and sniping, rather than debating a point or principle. Does the party want to showcase a confrontation over the finer points of immigration policy? Is there really a difference between Romney, Giuliani and Thompson on immigration. No. What is the effect of a debate that produces false distinctions? As Tom Tancredo noted: “All I’ve heard is people trying to out Tancredo Tancredo.”
The openly gay former brigadier general asks...
Why American men and women are not professional enough to serve with gays and lesbians?
Hunter: “It would be bad for unit cohesion.”
Huckabee: “Uniform code of military justice is probably the best conduct… when their conduct could put at risk the moral or even the cohesion that Duncan Hunter spoke of.”
Romney: “My view is that at this stage this is not the time to make that kind of change.”
Romney dodges the question about whether he looks forward to the day when gays could serve openly in the military.
The general: “With all due respect, I did not get an answer from the candidates. American men and women are professional enough to serve with gays and lesbians. For 42 years, I wore the Army uniform … I revealed I was a gay man after I retired. Today, don’t ask, don’t tell is destructive to our military policy…”
Huckabee says he'd welcome the support of the Log Cabin Republicans.
All The Republican Candidates Seem to Be Distancing Themselves From Cheney...
Romney And McCain Clash On Torture
Romney says he's seek McCain's counsel -- he doesn't think it's appropriate for presidential candidates to say what interrogation techniques are going to be used.
"I oppose torture. I would not be in favor of torture in any way shape or form."
McCain: "Governor, I'm astonished that you haven't found out what waterboarding is. I'm astonished that you think such a torture could be inflicted on anyone in our capture.... If we're going to get the high ground in this world, we're not going to do what Pol Pot did, what is being done to Burmese monks..."
Romney: "I did not say and I do not say that I'm in favor of torture. I'm not going to specify the specific means.... I get that advice from Cofer Black (ex CIA counterintell ops), I get that advice from talking to former generals in our military..."
McCain: "Then you would have to advocate that we withdraw from the Geneva convention. It's clear.. that it's torture. I would hope that we would understand that life is not 24 and Jack Bauer. Life is that we use humane techniques that are effective... my friends., this is what America is all about... this is a defining issue."
Romney's Closing Argument
This ad.
The Longest Time Elapsed Without A Mention Of Hillary Clinton In A GOP Debate?
It took eighty seven minutes.
Do You Believe Every Word Of This Book?
(The Holy Bible).
Rudy Giuliani: "The reality is that I relieve it, that i don't believe it literally true in every single respect. I think there are parts that are interpreted, ... allegorical... meant to be interpreted in a modern context..."
Romney: "I believe that the bible is the word of God, absolutely. ... I might interpret the word differently than you interpret the word..."
Huckabee: "It's the word of revelation between God and all of us. The only person here with a theology degree, there are parts of it I don't fully understand, but I am not supposed to, because the bible is the revelation of an infinite god...."
Huckabee: "It was the toughest decision I've ever made as a human being... The one decision that came to my desk that, once I made it, was irrevocable."
A Woman Who Gets An Abortion -- Should She Be CHarged With A Crime?
Paul: "I don't personally think so..."
Thompson: the penalty ought to be reserved for the doctor performing the abortion, not the woman.
Giuliani says he would probably not sign a bill banning all abortions. "If Roe v. Wade were overturned, it would then go back to the states. ... I don't believe that it should be criminalized. I think we should have parental consent. I think we should have access to adoption, instead of abortion."
Romney: agrees with Thompson.
Black and Black Crime
Asked about black on black crime, the Republicans focus mostly on crime enforcement:
Romney: "The best thing you can do for a kid is have a mom and a dad." Says that 68 percent of African American children are born out of wedlock, which I don't believe is true.
Giuliani: Romney has a "mixed record" on crime. Giuliani mentions how the greatest rate of crimes reduction occurred in places like Harlem... credits Compstat program and good leadership.
Should Anyone Who Owns A Gun Be Required To Pass An Exam?
Giuliani, who once said yes, was asked.
He answers:
"What I believe is that we have to be very aggressive about endorsing the gun laws that already existed...."
"What I believe is that the second amendment.. government can impose reasonable regulations.. (boos) ... about criminal background... background of mental instability.... and if those regulations go beyond that, then they are unconstitutional...states can have a little bit of leeway..."
Giuliani: "People will be allowed to have guns. I will not interfere with that."
Thompson: "The mayor has supported a wide array of gun control laws. I'm not sure there was ever one that came up that he didn't support. The second amendment isn't a choice thing..."
Thompson's Video
... is the video of a rotound Mike Huckabee talking about tax cuts... and a young pro-choice Mitt Romney...
"These are their words."
Romney: "I'm not sure who that young guy was at the beginning of that film. I can tell you this: I was wrong. On abortion, I was wrong. And I changed my mind."
Huckabee: "I was governor nearly 11 years and I cut nearly 90 taxes. The sales tax is one penny higher. ... but... When they're kicking you in the rear, it's just proving you're still out front..."
Cooper Asks Giuliani About Politico Story
"First of all. It's not true. I had 24 security for the eight years I was mayor...it was because there were threat. They took care of me. And they put in their records and they handled them the way they handled them. And they were handled, so far as I know, perfectly appropriately."
Republican Dodge Questions About Cutting Farm Subsidies
It's about ethanol, primary, but Romney won't cut big subsidies to agribusiness. Giulaini echoes Romney.
Grover Norquist's Question: Would You Promise To Oppose and Veto Any Effort To Raise Taxes As Long As You're President?
Tancredo: Yes.
Huckabee: Yes
Romney: Yes
Giuliani: Yes.
Thompson: "I don't do pledges to anyone except the American people."
McCain: "I'm like Fred. My pledge and my record is ... to the American people."
Paul: Yes, but "you can easily pledge not to raise taxes, but you have to promise to cut spending."
Hunter: "You could have a national emergency."
McCain Picks A Fight With Ron Paul
"I hear Ron Paul say he wants to bring the troops home."
"That kind of isolationism caused World War II."
"The message of the brave men and women who are serving over there is: "Let us win."
The crowd booed and cheered.
Paul: "Why do I get the most money from active duty military personal? What John is saying is just totally distorted?"
Great Huckabee Line
"More people are afraid of an audit than they are a mugging, and there's a reason why."
Embarassing?
The Republicans can't name three specific programs they'd cut?
Except Ron Paul.
There's Been Lots Of Arguing
But very little real disagreement so far.
Is This The First Presidential Debate Ever Where
The Trilateralist/CFR/North American Union conspiracy theories were given airings?
Huckabee's Applause Line
Huckabee: "We're a better country that to punish children for what their parents did."
Romney: "Are we going to say that kids that are here illegally get a special deal?"
A Sampling Of Candidate Press Releases
Thompson: "ROMNEY AND SANCTUARY CITIES"
Romney: "Rudy's Sanctuary City"
Giuliani: "Just the Facts #1: Romney and Illegal Immigration"
Tom Tancredo Has Won The Immigration Debate
Tom Tancredo:
“All I’ve heard is people trying to out Tancredo Tancredo.”
McCain Gets Applause
promises no amnesty, no demagoguery....
Thompson's Ready With Ammo
"Romney supports the Bush immigration plan…now he’s taken the other position. As far as mayor Giulani, I am a little surprised that he says that we’re responsible for the people we hire, I think we’ve all had people that we have hired that, in retrospect, probably was a bad decision."
That's a Bernie Kerik reference, and a quite artfully placed one.
And, After Silliness, The Debate Begins ..
If you read this blog, you're familiar with the arguments -- Giuliani and Romney recited them.
Romney got applause -- the audience is friendly to him.
"The mayor said, if you happen to be in this country in an undoc. status, then we want you here.."
Giuliani: Mitt "generally criticizes people in a situation in which he has by far the worst record. There were six sanctuary cities...was even a sanctuary mansion. At his own home. illegal immigrants were being employed."
Romney: "Mayor, you know better than that..." "Are you suggesting that, if you're a homeowner, and you hire a company to provide a service at your home, if you hear someone with a funny accent, you as a homeowner is supposed to go out there and say, let me see your papers?"
Giuliani: "If you're going to take this holier than thou attitude that you were perfect on immigration. It just so happens that you have a special immigration problem that nobody here has...They were under your nose!"
Giuliani And The Hamptons: Imagine The Tabloid Wood Tomorrow
And then answered your own question: is this story big?
From the standpoint of an editor of a producer, just look at the buzz words:
Giuliani. Extramarital Affair. Politico. Money. Hiding. NYPD. The Public Till. Loyalty. Kerik.
This is the Giuliani campaign's on-the-record response to the follow questions:
"Granting that all mayors receive NYPD production round the clock, did the mayor have any knowledge that the costs were allocated the way they were? Did Tony Carbonetti or Ray Lohta have any knowledge? Were the costs allocated properly?"
"This is common practice. The NYPD is responsible for providing security for the Mayor of New York around the clock."
Why wasn't the money put in the police department budget?
Why was it hidden?
Did Giuliani know?
Even if not, is Giuliani responsible for the conduct of his office?
Did Giuliani use the cover of "9/11 and security" to unwittingly cover up malfeasance? His aides told the city comptroller that "security" prevented them from explaining why the costs were unusually allocated.
The Daily Five: Empire Pride
1. Tonight: 8:00 pm. A Republican presidential debate. CNN. Google. YouTube. Anderson Cooper. From Florida. Item: Fred Thompson will seek to draw clear contrasts with Mike Huckabee. Item: imagine Ann Romney and Judith Giuliani having a conversation. What do they have in common? Item: Overzealous security -- three rings of it. And none of the Republican presidential candidates yet have security. Item: The latest CNN poll gives Hillary Clinton a statistically significant lead over Rudy Giuliani in Florida.
2. Ben Smith of the Politico: "As New York mayor, Rudy Giuliani billed obscure city agencies for tens of thousands of dollars in security expenses amassed during the time when he was beginning an extramarital relationship with future wife Judith Nathan in the Hamptons, according to previously undisclosed government records." More: "The expenses first surfaced as Giuliani's two terms as mayor of New York drew to a close in 2001, when a city auditor stumbled across something unusual: $34,000 worth of travel expenses buried in the accounts of the New York City Loft Board." An anonymous denial from the Giuliani campaign.........McCain, in South Carolina: "''If you're prepared to send an 80-year-old grandmother who's been here 70 years back to some country, then, frankly you're not quite as compassionate as maybe I am..." .... New Hampshire Union Leader's Cline calls Giuliani attacks against Romney for the Tavares case "unfair.".... Rudy Giuliani is comfortable with gay people, does not believe that homosexuality is immoral, disagrees with activists on some issues (like the Rainbow curriculum) and generally hasn't said what type of gay rights legislation, if any, he'd sign into law as president. BTW: Has Giuliani met with the Log Cabin Republicans this cycle?...Byron York: "The GOP Race: No One’s Winning, No One’s Losing, and No One’s Made Up His Mind...."
3. Hillary Clinton's new Iowa ad features her talking direct to camera about the major challenges ahead and the new for a strong leader to confront them....
The latest NH poll shows HRC with a double-digit lead over Barack Obama...Per MSNBC: "In a conference call to announce the personal endorsement of Linda Nelson, president of the Iowa State Education Association, Obama said that he would “fine parents” in order to enforce the mandate in his health insurance plan that all children be covered."
4. The Huckabee campaign responds to the Club for Growth in a 7 page memo. Excerpt: "After being elected Governor of California in 1967, Ronald Reagan reneged on a campaign promise and signed into law the single biggest tax increase in the state's history: $1 billion. (At the time, the total state budget was only about $5 billion. Adjusted for inflation and population growth, the increase in today's dollars would be $10 billion.) If the Club for Growth had been around in 1980, Reagan might not have become President. The influential fiscal conservative group would surely have done everything in their power to prevent the Gipper from gaining the nomination. They would have attempted to derail Reagan's campaign just as they are now doing to Gov. Huckabee." And: "• After praising his accomplishments, Cato bashes Gov. Huckabee for proposing a sales tax to "cover a budget deficit caused partly by large spending increases that he proposed and approved…" Again, 90% of the Arkansas state budget is on education, Medicare, prisons, and human services. Obviously, the radical libertarians at Cato consider it blasphemous to have the state funding schools or paying the medical bills of the poor. But complying with state law in order to balance the budget and pay for such entitlements does not make a governor a "big-government conservative."
Sometimes, our inner McMurrow-the-crime-fighting-journalist just has to intervene in the debates of the day and call balls and strikes.
1. To be clear: Rudy Giuliani is within his rights to say that murders increased in Massachusetts during the ty that "Violent Crime" -- a broad category encompassing four crimes, including murder, declined during Romney's tenure. So the difference is one of capital letters. Violent crime rose in Massachusetts, but "Violence Crime," as defined by the FBI, did not. The rise in murders was offset by the decline in other violence.
2. And to say that Mitt Romney bears any direct responsibility for the is like saying Ernie Acorsi, the former general manager of the New York Giants, should shoulder the blame for each of Eli Manning's four interceptions last Sunday. And it's a big stretch to compare Romney's situation to Gov. Michael Dukakis's furlough program, which turned Willie Horton loose.
Romney appointed a judge, Kathe Tuttman, who seemed very well qualified. The judge performed ably. Then she decided to free without bail a bad man, Daniel Tavares Jr., obviously not knowing how bad the man really was and perhaps not hearing all the available evidence that he was very bad. Tavares then committed murder, again.
Does Romney bear any moral responsibility for the murder? No. Does he bear political responsibility? Maybe -- but the cake of responsibility has, by the time it gets back to Romney, atrophied to a single wedge.
Obvious, Tavares is responsible, legally and morally, for the homicides. Our moral reckoning ends there. But realistically, we live in a world that is wedded to the illusion of cause and effect, so let's assign, like, 95% of the political blame to Tavares. Tuttman shoulders the burden of living with the decision. Maybe she's 4% responsible. So by the time one gets back to Romney, who appointed numerous judges who haven't freed any killers, we're left with so little blame as to render it meaningless.
Saying Romney Is responsible for every Tuttman decision is like saying George H.W. Bush responsible for every David Souter ruling? OK, bad comparison: for many conservatives, the comparison might hold.
For this murder, though, the chain of guilt simply breaks down, especially for law-and-order conservatives, who tend not to allow people who do bad things to blame entities and institutions for their nature.
On Willie Horton comparisons: The differenure of Mitt Romney. That's what the FBI Uniform Crime Reports say. Those reports also saence there is that Dukakis pushed for the furlough program that freed Horton. And in doing so, he ratified the political stereotype that he was "weak" on crime. Romney has never been accused of being weak on crime, has no record of it, and certainly did not push Judge Tuttman to furlough anyone.
When Will Al Gore Endorse If He Endorses?
Those in the know -- and there is no one really in the know -- say that they don't expect the former vice president to have anything to say about his 2008 presidential endorsement until after his global warming forum in New Hampshire. (He's co-hosting it with Arnold Schwarzenegger and John McCain and others).
The date, at this point, is TBD.
But, obviously, uh, soon.
Atlantic Umpire: Did HRC Oppose A Mandate In The 90s?
That's the claim from the Obama campaign today.
But the charge is hard to square with the fact that Clinton's 1993 Health Security Act did indeed contain an individual mandate.
What Clinton opposed was an a la carte mandate proposed by John Chafee, one that would have scrapped the entire employer based system in favor of a government mandate that everyone purchase insurance -- without a government guarantee of help to those who couldn't afford it.
Indeed, the plan had little in the way of subsidies for those who couldn't afford it -- they'd be covered, for the time being, under existing government programs. Chafee's plan was premised on the idea that only with a large enough pool of premiums from young, healthy people could the insurance industry contain costs and offer basic insurance products at a lower rate.
Chafee's plan was called by Democrats the "individual mandate" plan, which sounds enticing to today's ears... but it's not the same as the plan Clinton proposed in September of 2007, which includes generous government subsidies for the poor and a menu of options for small businesses (a very modified version of "pay or play").
Politically, it's going to be hard to argue that Clinton's 1993 plan, which popularized the concept of "government-run universal health care," was somehow not premised on the idea of required, universal coverage.
"For that is how most of my colleagues, Republican and Democrat, enter the Senate…their words distorted, and their motives questioned," Obama writes in The Audacity of Hope. As Senator Clinton might today say: "Indeed."
Firefighters Launch Big Pro-Dodd Effort
It's in the form of a major multi-city bus tour in Iowa led by International Association of Fire Fighters president Harold Schaitberger. Sen. Chris Dodd will join Schaitberger at three stops.
"The bus tour is all about rallying the troops, just like we did for Kerry in ’03 and ’04," an IAFF spokesman says. "It’s all about getting fire fighters to attend the caucus and influence the outcome, just like they did for Kerry in ’04."
"Fair tax" Movement Dramatically Scales Back Iowa Plans
(with reporting from the Atlantic's Chris Bodenner).
Where did all those Fairtaxers go?
Once ubiquitous at campaign events, the organization’s tax reforming supporters are nowhere to be found, and rumors have started to circulate that Americans for a Fair Taxation is broke, bankrupt, taxed out.
One of AFFT’s top organizers conceded yesterday that the group had essentially shut down its Iowa operations and would spend next to nothing in advance of the Iowa caucus. That’s an unwelcome turn of events for Mike Huckabee, who benefited from Fairtax’s organizational prowess in his surprise second place showing at August’s important Republican straw poll in Ames.
The organizer, who spoke with the Atlantic’s Chris Bodenner in exchange for anonymity, forwarded along an e-mail from David Polyansky, who until late last month was AFFT’s chief operating officer.
“Because our funding has not kept pace with our progress, even as we have dramatically cut costs, there is only one responsible course of action left to us in order to preserve the heart of the campaign and keep our efforts alive,” Polyanksy wrote in the e-mail. “The FairTax campaign will continue with a small staff to handle media inquiries and limited grassroots direction/contacts and to keep a light burning. To accomplish this, we must cut all other expenditures, which includes the salaries of almost the entire operating staff, myself included.
Simply put, the campaign is more important than any one person.”
Ken Hoagland, communications director Americans for Fair Taxation, denies that the group is on its death bed. “Those rumors are false. We went for broke in Iowa and nearly achieved broke,” he says, but the organization is “quickly recovering.” After the splurge in Iowa, AFFT “scaled back” on its operations and became “more modest” with its spending. It also shifted its fundraising focus away from big donors and towards the Internet.
Iowa Fairtaxers plan to circulate a flier at the January caucuses, but the organizer said the effort was “aimed more at educating those who attend the caucus than driving turnout to the caucus.”
During their “hiatus” from Iowa (the presidential primary Hoagland says AFFT is most concerned with), organizers “shifted attention” to South Carolina and Florida, which has an especially “strong base” for the Fair Tax. But Hoagland insists that the AFFT is poised to revamp its Iowa campaign “in about a week,” and says that Iowans should expect to see the Fair Tax bus all across the state through January 3, when both parties caucus.
But one of the group’s chief organizers in Iowa said any ramping up of activity in Iowa was “news to me.”
Several presidential candidates – notably Huckabee – back the Fairtaxers’ central proposal, which would, in one fell swoop, abolish the IRS, repeal the 16th Amendment, and replace the federal income tax with a national sales tax.
"Even though I approved of Afghanistan and opposed Iraq from the beginning," said Clinton, "I still resent that I was not asked or given the opportunity to support those soldiers."
Clinton has long been critical of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and called it a "big mistake" as far back as November of 2005.
But like his wife, the former president supported giving President Bush the authority needed to go to war.
"I supported the President when he asked the Congress for authority to stand up against weapons of mass destruction in Iraq," said Clinton in 2003 while delivering commencement remarks at Tougaloo College in Jackson, Miss.
Mr. President -- your wife is going to be in Iowa tomorrow. She is supposed to talk about health care. You don't want to step on her message by claiming that you opposed the Iraq War from the beginning! We're in the era of instantaneous fact checks... within 10 minutes of your comments, they're everywhere, and if you want to walk them back, it's not like calling Ron Fournier to walk back an AP story!
Remember: The last two times Mr. Clinton campaigned for his wife, well, there were messaging issues. He used the word "Swift Boat" in conjunction with opponents' attacks and then, in South Carolina, fueled a few days worth of coverage by noting how those boys were getting tough on her.
November 27, 2007
Out Of Context Hillary Oppo Video Alert
The video and quote are being circulated by supporters of John Edwards....
"We'll have as much spine as we could possibly have, given the circumstances..."
The Delaware Democrat, who trails badly in the polls in advance of the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, made his comments after a supporter, J.R. Ackley, urged him to "take on" the three front-runners in the race.
"It's like three witches sitting around arguing about who's ugliest," Ackley said of Clinton, Obama and Edwards, whom he said lacked the experience that Biden has.
"I admit I've been reluctant," Biden said.
He said Clinton "has done really good work" for 35 years helping children. "But I was actually writing the laws and getting things changed."
Biden called Obama a "great guy," then said, "I spent time in the projects" and was a public defender.
Huh?
Romney And Muslims
Briefly: one gets the sense that Gov. Mitt Romney will spend another day fending off accusations that he doesn't mind people believing that he would never appoint a Muslim to federal office. For one thing, there's a second report of those sketchy comments. For another, Romney does not seem to relish being forced to deny the story -- perhaps he finds it too absurd to bother with -- but such lack-of-relish shows, and it's leading reporters to try and parse his statements.
Answering the subject by challenging the premise and challenging the credentials of the person who made the accusations are debating techniques, but they won't the get media to leave the story alone.
Huckabee's Rapid Response Director Addresses The Media En Masse, Apologizes To Club For Growth
Joe Carter, Mike Huckabee's new research director and the man tasked with responding to all those Club for Growth/Arkansas-media oppo dumps against his boss, just e-mailed his media contacts with a missive that's both a plea for patience and a road map to the defensive scheme the Huckabee team will use.
This is only my second day as head of research and rapid response for the Huckabee campaign but I’ve already learned some valuable lessons.
The first thing I learned is that I’m apparently not spamming your inboxes nearly enough. If Jonah Golberg’s experience is any indication (http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmRjMTIwNmNmODMzN2Y0NzE4ZTMwNzY1YjA5Nzk4ZTY=) then I haven’t been keeping you adequately informed about the minutia of Gov. Huckabee’s campaigning. To be honest, I don’t know what he had for lunch, what he’s doing in the next ten minutes, or whether he has a hangnail. All I know is that he’s busy winning over the hearts and minds of voters in Iowa and South Carolina.
The second thing I found is that I currently don’t have the stomach for nit-picky, negative sniping at other GOP candidates. I’m sure I’ll get there; maybe by day 13 or so. If not, then I’ll have shown that I don’t have a future in politics. But until that day comes I thought I’d focus on selling my candidate instead of knocking the others.
So here’s what I propose: Send me the tough questions you have about Gov. Huckabee. It may take me a few days but I’ll give you an answer that I hope you’ll find sufficiently candid and detailed. I don’t expect to win everyone over (e.g., If you think a 7/8-cent sales tax increase to fix dilapidated highways is the sign of a “fiscal liberal” then I’m out of luck) but I do think I can clear up a lot of the misperceptions and faulty labels that are floating around.
And if I can’t sell a solid fiscal, social, and security conservative like Mike Huckabee, then I really don’t have a future in politics.
Thanks,
-Joe
Earlier today, Carter apologized to the Club for Growth -- they were not, he said, "dishonest hacks" -- and promised a substantive reply to their charges very soon.
The Daily Five: Guess Obama Didn't Bring Her Flowers...
1. Tomorrow, the Republicans are all in Florida preparing for their big debate on CNN. The Democrats are... not.
2. Fred Thompson releases two new ads in Iowa and South Carolina. They emphasize his resume; "Marie" is narrated by the Marie Ragghianti, the Tennessee whistleblower who Thompson ably defended 30 years ago. "Service"'s narrator says Thompson was "called to public service at challenging times." ..... Alan Keyes's Renew America group protests his exclusion from the CNN/Youtube debate. Yes, Keyes is running. Does that make sense?....And "moderate" Republicans plan a weekend gathering in Iowa. .... For the latest on the Club for Growth v. the Huckabee campaign, click here. Huckabee receives plaudits from ONE Vote '08 for "Major Commitment to Fight Global Disease."
3. Babs endorses HRC.....in South Carolina; Clinton unveils list of prominent ministers who've endorsed her campaign; she also unveils aggressive new plan to fight HIV/AIDS; ace New Yorker Ben Smithnotices a change of position on the wisdom of federal funding for needle exchanges....Clinton sources in New Hampshire say that Dr. Susan Lynch will be a regular presence on the campaign trail there; when phone bankers at a Clinton house party in NH were informed of her endorsement, they broke into cheers......Obama is endorsed by Waterloo, Iowa state rep. Deb Berry, bringing to 17 the number of legislative endorsements.....Edwards campaign sends around news clip of Obama endorser Jesse Jackson praising Edwards for making poverty a centerpiece of his campaign....Joe Biden counters John McCain on Iraq here.
4. Facebook hires leading Dem and GOP online political consultants to help monetize and expand the site's political appetite. Deal with ABC on presidential debates is said to be the first of many steps...
5. Florida Gov. / possible VP aspirant Charlie Crist submits a question in advance of Wednesday's CNN/YouTube debate in St. Petersburg: would the presidential candidates support a national version of the hurricane catastrophe fund he instituted for Florida?
Why Mitt Romney Faces Serious Challenges In Iowa
(embarrassing typo corrected - thanks JD)
He's ahead in the polls and there's a good chance he will win, but still, but ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney faces serious challenges in Iowa. Here are six.
First, savvy consultants look at two numbers to project whether, if a particular election were held today, their candidate would win. One is the head to head -- and Mitt Romney still leads, narrowly, in Iowa polls. The second is the degree of intensity -- and here, Mike Huckabee's surge breaks over the walls that the Romney Iowa organization has spent so many months carefully building. Every consultant would rather be behind by five points in the head to head match ups and ahead by double digits in terms of the level of intensity.
Second: The national political press corps and conservative political elites, aided by Nachama Soloveichik, are beginning to scrutinize Mike Huckabee, and they finding out some astounding things. Did you know that his administration was regularly censured by state ethics boards? That Huckabee once worked as a director of advertising? He certainly has his work cut out for him in trying to explain away some of the less salutary aspects of his record (in the eyes of conservatives, anyway.) But the Iowa press corps -- print and TV -- and the national TV networks -- have yet to follow. Huckabee is still the darling of the Iowa media now, and, frankly, they'll decide collectively whether to turn on the scrutiny spigot. In Iowa, Huckabee is not getting the scrutiny that leading candidates generally get.
Third: social conservative single-issue voters seem to have decided, en masse, to coalesce around Huckabee and use Iowa to prove to the world that they still matter in the Republican Party and are tired of being taken advantage of. This dynamic, which Republican operatives working for all candidates perceive, is hard to break. And Huckabee can run what would be, in effect, an anti-Mormon campaign solely by legitimately appealing to evangelicals' identity interests.
Fourth: Huckabee, by dint of his natural temperament, his preaching background or his skills as an ad man, is a more compelling, more engaging public personality that Romney. As TV coverage of the race ramps up, this matters. That said, Romney works a crowd better than Huckabee does. Also, the Romney family is beloved by Romney's volunteers in Iowa and is an undeniable asset.
Fifth: Romney's strategy was surely the only correct one for his campaign. But either his strategists did not count on running up the score in Iowa so early or the press did not give Romney due credit for chasing three rivals out of Ames entirely and beating Huckabee (aided by the FairTaxers) by double digits. The result: Romney, for some reason, just absolutely has to win Iowa or else his chances for winning the nomination are finished. Empirically, this is nonsense. Romney has unlimited resources and is the only campaign right now that has the capacity to challenge Giuliani through January and into February.
Sixth: Timing. For all intents and purposes, the race in Iowa ends before Christmas. Probably the week before Christmas. Romney has little time to mount a counter-offensive. And the ramifications of going negative against Huckabee are unclear.
None of the above is to suggest that Romney is going to lose Iowa. But it does suggest that, at a minimum, that victory is not assured. Romney's organizational is real and impressive, and note that Huckabee's rise has not, so far, come at Romney's expense.
Bill Richardson's Blueprint For Victory In Iowa
Convinced he's on an upswing to a strong Iowa finish, BIll Richardson plans to emphasize his record on domestic policy issues during the final four weeks.
"I think we've done a great job establishing on his policy bona fides. Despite what Hillary Clinton says, Richardson clearly has the most foreign policy experience," says Tom Reynolds, Richardson's aide, in a telephone interview from Council Bluffs, Iowa
So -- the campaign will focus on bread and butter issues, highlighting Richardson's record as a steward of New Mexico's economy, his proposals on education and health care, the environment and energy.
Today, Richardson unveils his agriculture polocy, giving a speech he's titled “A New Direction for American Agriculture.” An excerpt: "Fairness has been corrupted by campaign financing. President Bush signed away the family farm to big agribusiness. We can do better. We need a new direction for American agriculture. One that seizes the opportunities presented by renewable fuel possibilities, that makes conservation a real priority, and levels the playing field for family farmers and independent producers."
The campaign is also adding a new ad to their rotation. It's about education and refers to his support for a complete scrap of "No Child Left Behind." Richardson wants teachers to earn at least $40,000 at the start of their career. He'd pay for more education spending, he says, by cutting weapons programs.
Polling Over The Holidays: A Caution
Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal notes that there's a reason to be very skeptical about tracking polls taken of Democratic and Republican voters around the turn of the year: the sample will be skewed in myriad ways:
The first issue is that both Christmas and New Year's Day fall in the last two weeks before the Iowa Caucuses. Most pollsters prefer to avoid interviewing in this period because so many Americans are traveling, away from home or otherwise unlikely to participate in a survey. As should be obvious, any random sample will be representative of those who participate. If certain kinds of voters are less likely to be home and reachable during the holiday week, and if those voters have different political preferences than those more likely to be reachable, the results of the survey may be skewed.
And how is New Hampshire affected? Consider: the way that pollsters will pick up a surge of momentum from one candidate is to, well, poll... but given the intervening weekend -- Iowa will be held on Thursday, Jan 3 -- the rolling tracking polls wouldn't give an accurate picture of said momentum until Monday, Jan. 7 -- the night before New Hampshire -- and would, in any event, be skewed somewhat because of the nature of the weekend sample.
Here is something that Blumenthal may want to chew on.
Because the size of the voter pool in Iowa is tiny, and because, for Democrats, the caucus math is so complex, the campaigns themselves may find their own tallies of "1s" -- those folks who are almost certain to caucus for them -- are a better indicator of where things stand than any polling... the downside being, of course, that there will be no reliable way to compare their standing to that of their opponents, right until the night of the vote.
Then again, such a scenario is what the anti-polling crowd has always dreamed of: contests untethered to the influence of pre-election polls.
BTW: Blumenthal also has the latest data on one of my favorite problems in politics: the notion (empirically validated,to some extent) that polls, in late December, have much lower response rates than in any other month.
McCain Plans South Carolina, New Hampshire Blitz... Leaving Iowa Behind?
His campaign insists that he intends to fully compete in Iowa, but a glance at Sen. John McCain's tentative schedule for the next 30 days suggests he trolling for votes where the pastures are greener.
McCain plans to campaign in Iowa next week -- and then as little as one more day between now and the end of the month. In contrast, he will spend at least ten full days in New Hampshire and eight days in South Carolina. (McCain is in South Carolina today and has a five-day bus tour planned for next week in New Hampshire).
Aides stressed that the schedule was in draft mode. But McCain acknowledged to reporters yesterday that "there is a lot of work to do" in Iowa. And not much time.
Republican Campaigns Up Ad Spending In New Hampshire
According to a tally of New Hampshire television advertising kept by one of the campaigns, Rudy Giuliani has boosted his spending in the state by 60% for the upcoming week starting tomorrow.
Here, according to the tally, is the amount of money that Rudy Giuliani is spending, followed by a similar tally for Mitt Romney.
For an explanation of what a point -- a GRP -- is, click here. Basically, one point is 1% of households, so a buy of 400 points means that every conceivable household in a market is exposed to the ad at least four times, in theory.... In reality, it takes about 1000 grps -- or 10 exposures to saturate a target audience.
Note that the most expensive New Hampshire market is Boston -- and that the campaigns have to buy markets that extend into Vermont, New York and Maine -- which means that voters there are saturated with television ads directed at their neighbors.
Rudy Giuliani
Boston -- 400 points $319,000
Burlington-Plattsburgh -- 550 points $43,995
Manchester -- 560 points $173,965
Portland-Auburn -- 450 $42,000
Mitt Romney
Boston, for 825 points, at $705,100 per week
Burlington-Plattsburgh for 550 point at $43,995 per week
Manchester for 1,435 points at $464,040 per week
Portland-Auburn for 450 points at $42,000 per week
November 26, 2007
The Daily Five: Low Caucus Turnout?
1. Hillary Clinton plans to make news in Spartanburg, SC tomorrow; Bill Clinton is in Eastern Iowa...Barack Obama is in NH courting independents on foreign policy...Dodd and Biden are always there. John McCain spends the day in Anderson and Seneca, SC. Mitt Romney flies to Florida. John Edwards will rally in New York City with striking labor leaders and then fly to NH, and Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani have no public events. For the latest on Trent Lott's retirement, click here:
2. Republicans predict low Iowa caucus turnout despite large field; estimates range from 75,000 to 95,000 -- at least 30,000 lower than estimated turnout for Democrats, who have a much more complex caucus procedure..... Romney unveils new immigration ad in New Hampshire called "Take Charge"...Giuliani's team believes NH trip was a message success and threw rival Romney off-balance....Huckabee raises money off rivals' "negative attacks..."
3. Focus on the Family's Tom Minnery says it's "doubtful" that James Dobson would personally endorse Mitt Romney because of "the tremendous difference in theological views."
4. On day that Clinton campaign attacks Obama for alleged improprieties involving his leadership PAC, a wag notes that both Tom Harkin (whose wife Ruth has endorsed Clinton) and John Lynch (whose wife, Dr. Susan Lynch, endorsed Clinton today) both recieved money from sketchy fundraiser Norman Hsu. An Obama aide calls the Washington Post's story about the Hopefund PAC "silly." Aides say that the PAC had a balance after it shuttered operations and doled out contributions to candidates, legally. "This does not keep me up at night," an Obama legal adviser says.
5. Club for Growth website holds contest featuring the "slurs" against it by pro-Huckabee forces. My favorite: Schmub for Schmowth, by the blogforlife. An adviser to Fred Thompson pulls back candidate's criticism of Fox News that its "constant mantra" is that his campaign is in trouble; the adviser said that Thompson's criticism applied more generally to the media but that Fox News came to mind because he was appearing on a Fox News television program. "He is not against Fox News," the adviser says.
McCain On The Record
ARLINGTON, VA -- Sen. John McCain invited a cadre of the nation's top political reporters (and for some reason, me, ) to lunch today and used the occasion to reflect on his recent trip to Iraq and sketch out the next thirty days.
The news nuggets:
## "We're fine," McCain said of his campaign's finances. There's been no decision to tap into the public till just yet. The campaign recently secured a $3M loan.
## Said he wished John Edwards still referrred to the military escalation in Iraq as the "McCain surge." Gently criticized Rudy Giuliani: "The former mayor of New York City has never been to Iraq..." While in Iraq, McCain allowed that he observed a military interrogation and was told by the base commander that the techniques permitted by the Army Field Manual were more than enough to get the information out of those detained.
## Acknowledged that "immigration hurts" him in South Carolina but was confident; said his campaign had begun to gel in New Hampshire; acknowledged that in Iowa, "we have a great deal of work to do." McCain returns to Iowa and NH next week and is in SC tomorrow. Admitted that he had to "do really well" in New Hampshire in order to survive the campaign.
## Said he remained friends with Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson, said he's taken a real shine to Mike Huckabee, and said he doesn't know Romney enough to be friendly. Huckabee, McCain said, was "the genuine article."
Against Giuliani, Romney Does The "Nasty"
Nasty Man was the title of Ed Koch's entertaining screed against former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and the epithet has stuck among Giuliani's critics. Giuliani has never denied that he is a heck of a man, impatient and demanding, and capable of offending others, and New York political reporters certainly have their own opinions of him, but his alllies say his bout with cancer, his personal life travails, 9/11, and simply his aging, have softened him a bit.
As ABC's "The Note" relates this morning, allusions to Giuliani's "nasty side" are now cropping up in the Romney campaign's description of Giuliani. Spokesman Kevin Madden, responding to Giuliani's characterization of Romney as having "a worse record" than everyone else on basically all the issues, said "the mayor's nasty side becomes more apparent as desparation sets in."
The enthymeme: Giuliani is desparate and therefore he is resorting to type -- less, (as Jonathan Martin puts it) disappointed Dad and more pit bill. More nasty.
Is Giuliani nasty? Will Republicans respond to the charge that Giuliani is too mean?
Rivals say the argument for "yes" is that the "nasty" charges remind conservatives that Giuliani is from New York, and they don't like New York. And the sunny optimism that Giuliani projects? A facade. Substantively, there's a lot to play with -- litanies can be found all over, including Koch's.
We are implored to take the full measure of the men and women who are running, and the less salutary humours in Giuliani have yet to be given a full vetting in this race. The blogs are full of examples of what Giuliani's campaign would call his combativeness and his disregard for bullshit, and what his opponents -- generally Democrats -- would call his "nasty" side.
Newsweek begins its biography of Giuliani this week with the tale of his "profanity-laced" pep rally against David Dinkins in 1992.
Here now is a video that just drips Old Giuliani. (Wait until the end).
So far, though, Giuliani has been immune. Republicans haven't seen his "nasty" side. He's been relatively nice at the debates, laughing at the jokes told by his opponents, even the unfunny ones. His fav/unfavs are still very high. He's not nasty, yet.
What The Endorsement Of Hillary Clinton By New Hampshire's First Lady Means
As an analogy, hearken back to the cusp of 2004, Christie Vilsack, the wife of then Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, endorsed Sen. John Kerry at just the right time. The governor remained publicly neutral, but his advisers did not go out of their way to push back against the notion that he was more sympathetic to Kerry than others. The governor even attended a private meeting of Kerry fundraisers organized by ace Democratic poobah Jerry Crawford. Christie Vilsack's endorsement came less than a week before the caucuses, and the momentum effect was intense.
Is Gov. John Lynch playing the sly game? It's hard to tell. Dr. Susan Lynch is a doctor and her support for Clinton has been an open secret among the cognoscienti in New Hampshire for a while. The timing of her endorsement is tough to follow -- the big guns -- ok, since she's a doctor, the Big Needles -- are often brought out at the end -- and the end, in New Hampshire is more than a month away.
Speaking of hearkening: recall that Sen. Tom Harkin's wife Ruth endorsed Clinton way back in July. Her husband, who endorsed Howard Dean in early 2004, is staying mum.
Is Mike Huckabee Playing The Mormon Card? (And Is It OK To Play The Mormon Card?)
Take another look at his newest television advertisement.
On first watching, the assumption is that Huckabee is drawing a bright line between himself as a candidate of faith and the titular national frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani, as a candidate who lacks that bearing.
That may be too broad a reading. In Iowa, of course, Giuliani is nowhere and Mitt Romney, he of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, is everywhere.
You know, I just don't think that's an appropriate issue for me to get into, the nuances of the Mormon faith. And it is not the sole criteria by which I think a person should be judged fit or unfit for the presidency, any more than I think people ought to necessarily make it the defining issue for me. I am very comfortable answering questions about my faith. I am probably the only candidate that has been subjected to this sort of detailed questioning about faith. I don't think Romney has even been. And my faith is a pretty mainstream view of the world and of the Bible. But I accept that as part of the whole process. I just think all of us should be prepared to answer questions regardless of what our views are, and let people sort that out. But that's why I don't feel comfortable in saying, 'Let me tell you what this guy believes.' You know what? I don't know what he believes. Even if I knew what his church believes, I don't know that I can say what he believes until he expresses it
What Gov. Huckabee is telling Salon's Michael Scherer is that Romney's religion can be a criteria by which people judge him, and that he believes that Romney ought to be subjected to questions about the content of his religious faith -- questions that Huckabee asserts have not been asked before.
A stout defense of Huckabee would point out that, with the media so obsessed about Romney's religion, any mention of Huckabee of his own faith -- a faith which, by all accounts, is central to his politics and morality -- would be illegitimate. Clearly, Huckabee has every right to try to win over voters on account of his evangelical background. In doing so, he challenges the consensus view that certain attributes, like religion, ought not matter. Of course, Huckabee is saying, they matter, and to pretend otherwise is foolish.
Is Huckabee playing the Mormon card, even unwittingly? Hard to say. His campaign says absolutely not. And intent matters, of course. But this being a postmodern political world, so does reception: it depends on the extent to which the targets of his television ad are aware that Romney is Mormon and are prone to object to it.
McCain's New Ad: Loving America, Angrily
This is McCain's closing argument.
The script:
JOHN MCCAIN: "Since I've been in Washington, I've made a lot of people angry.
"I made defense contractors angry when I blew the whistle on a $30 billion dollar boondoggle and the culprits were sent to jail.
"I upset the special interests and Washington lobbyists when I passed campaign finance reform.
"I made the Pentagon angry when I criticized Rumsfeld's Iraq strategy, and I upset the media when I supported the strategy that's now succeeding.
"I angered the big spenders in Congress when I called for earmark and spending reform. No more $233 million dollar bridges to nowhere or $74 million for peanut storage in a defense spending bill.
"I didn't go to Washington to win the Mr. Congeniality award.
"I went to Washington to serve my country.
"I might not like the business as usual crowd in Washington. But I love America. I love her enough to make some people angry.
"I'm John McCain and I approve this message."
Michigan Democrats Are Still Fighting
In the wake of last week's ruling reinstating a January 15 Michigan primary, state legislators in Michigan today will try to force Democratic presidential candidates to participate.
They're passing a law today that will finalize a ballot, adding the names of those Democrats who opted out of the earlier incarnation of the primary.
That means that, absent a legal challenge, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and Joe Biden's names will once again be on the ballot, joining Chris Dodd's and Hillary Clinton's. (The DNC won't budge: Michigan will not be allocated any delegates).
The Michigan Democratic Party's executive committee meets tomorrow night, and the votes are there for Jan. 15. But the state party's executive director, Mark Brewer, is going to throw up road blocks -- he really wants a caucus -- but he is fast running out of allies.
Huckabee's Second Ad Focus On Faith
His faith, Mike Huckabee says, defines him. The words "Christian Leader" flash across the screen. Huckabee is shown saying: "Let Us Never Sacrifice Our Interests For Anybody's Politics"....
Subtle it is not. But it's what you've got to do. A silent irony: that "let us never sacrifice" line is targeted at Rudy Giuliani, in whose interest it is for Huckabee to do well in Iowa. So the Giuliani campaign probably, silently, welcomes a Huckabee advertisement that focuses on faith and values.
Edwards's Closing Argument
For John Edwards, this week is "America Belongs To Us Week," and if you think that the catchy title is yet another hook to try and convince the press to take Edwards's challenge to Clinton and Obama seriously, well, you are correct.
Each day, Edwards plans to spotlight a kitchen table issue, and he'll tie it back to the frame he has been building for months: Hillary Clinton is too emeshed in the corrupt culture of Washington to fix things and to take on the entrenched interests that need taking on. He -- Edwards -- is unafraid.
The truth is that Edwards has been making that case much more cleanly than any of his opponents, whether or not they began to make it first. It's a different case than Barack Obama's -- he argues that Clinton is too polarizing to get the job done -- Edwards takes the charge further: it's Clinton herself who is part of the system that needs reforming, that it's the Clinton legacy that has consigned the Democratic Party to second-tier status.
In Bow, NH today, Edwards will talk about the uninsured. In some advance remarks sent by the Edwards campaign, here's the striking paragraph:
Who can you trust to tell you the truth about what's wrong in Washington?
And who can you trust to fight like hell to make it right?
....
I will tell you the truth, the hard truth, the whole truth. I will fight for you like I have fought for people like you my entire life. And together, we are going to win.
There is, in this paragraph, an implicit challenge to Barack Obama, too. Will Edwards make it explicit?
Oprah!
It's on -- the great war of the celebrity surrogates has been joined, as American icon Oprah Winfrey announces she'll campaign with Barack Obama in the early states next week.
Winfrey, from Chicago, of course, endorsed Obama very early on, although she has hosted on her show and been very gracious to Hillary Clinton and the Edwardses.
Winfrey has generally abstained from using her enormous influence and audience to influence American politics, but her friendship with Barack and Michelle Obama extends deep enough, and, perhaps, the teachable moment is just too tempting enough for her to bear.
The Clinton campaign has been worried about the prospect of Winfrey campaigning. She is not only, of course, the richest African American woman in the world, she is probably the most popular woman in the United States, and, like Obama, her appeal -- here's that offensive T-word -- transcends -- every barrier that is put up in her way. The Clinton campaign needs women -- married women, single women, upscale and downscale-- to not have second thoughts about Hillary, especially in the early states. Winfrey's highest audience, incidentally, is among working class women, precisely the sub-demographic group that Clinton absolutely needs to win.
Obama and "Ms. Oprah Winfrey" will campaign in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids on Dec. 8, and then Columbia, South Carolina on Dec. 9 and Manchester, NH later that day. Judging by the online real estate devoted to her appearances, the Obama campaign wants these crowds to be utterly, transcendently huge.
There's bound to be some anti-Oprah stuff out there today... James Fry, the Leadership Academy...and questions about whether she can mention her campaigning on her television show... but all these are largely irrelevant to politics.
November 21, 2007
Jan 8: New Hampshire Primary
So says Bill Gardner today.
Whoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
How could this column take a few days off for Thanksgiving without mentioning the biggest cultural development in the presidential race since Oprah endorsed Barack Obama?
Ric Flair, who next week makes his triumphant return to the WWE and brings back his "Four Horsemen" brood to boot, is a fan of Mike Huckabee's, and will campaign for him in South Carolina.
Flair's career matured in Greenville and environs; he is an immensely popular figure there among males aged, oh, 25 through 45 -- those who grew up watching Mid-South championship wrestling, the National Wrestling Alliance, and who spent their early Saturday evenings listening to the dulcet tones of Tony Shiavone and watching World Championship Wrestling at 6:05 pm ET on TBS.
Flair is a throwback to an era where wrestlers stayed in character 24/7, where grapplers could be smaller and still be champions; where heels and babyfaces traded positions but did not subvert the general moral order of the universe -- good versus bad, with bad winning just enough times to keep you tuned in. Flair's signature move is the chop; his finishing move is the figure-four leg lock, which, if you've ever tried to use on your brother, actually hurts!
As a performer, Flair knew no peer. As a man, he knows nothing but wrestling. He is 58 years old now, and while his every appearance draws thunderous applause and hoots from a much-younger WWE audience, there's a twinge of sadness everytime he's in the ring. He's slower; his face is pockmarked, ragged and worn; his signature long, blond tresses are gone.
But to young men in the South, he is an icon. He draws more respect than Chuck Norris.
And if Mike Huckabee uses him properly, he could really help him pop.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Michigan Finally Gets Its January 15 Primary
The state supreme court ended the suspense today and reinstated the date.
So now Michigan registrars can get moving on their absentee ballots and Bill Gardner, New Hampshire's secretary of state, can tell us when he'll hold his primary.
On Mitt Romney and Immigration
An aide to Mitt Romney takes strong exception to this post about the purity of Republicans on immigration.
Even if Romney knew that the new governor was likely to overturn his order deputizing state troopers to detain illegal immigrants, it does not follow, the aide says, that Romney should not have done it.
"All that it takes for wrong decisions to prevail in this world is that good men do nothing. So if you know your successor is going to hike taxes, you shouldn’t sign a tax cut?"
Fair enough.
The point isn't that Romney didn't do what he says he did -- he did indeed provide for the deputization of some state police troopers to detain undocumented workers -- the point is that there is, to every gesture a back story, and one that involves the tangle of personal, political and policy motivations.
Romney's gubernatorial staff first began to negotiate with the federal government in June of 2006 ... it took a long time for the mechanics of the arrangement to be worked out. By June of 2006, Romney's had a tenth of his term to go. His campaign points out that he vetoed an in-state tuition bill for undocumented workers in 2004 and would have done so earlier had the legislature sent the bill to him earlier. And even earlier in his administration, he opposed a bill that would have granted driver's licenses to undocumented workers. His aides say that he wanted to negate the magnets that drew illegal immigrants to the sanctuary cities in his state, and he succeeded.
But I've spoken to Romney advisers and aides who served the governor during this period. Some are still with the governor's team, and others have moved on. (None is Mike Murphy, incidentally). They acknowledge that, by the middle of 2005, Romney was thinking pretty seriously about the possibility of a political life after the state house, that he was expanding his outreach to conservatives, that conservatives were listing illegal immigration as an issue of paramount concern, that Romney was encouraged by some of his advisers to summon some public intestinal fortitude on immigration, and that he was moved to take forward-leaning action toward the tail end of his term.
None of that obviates the fact that Romney did what he did. Grant Romney's supporters the concession that he's "tough on illegal immigration" now and was pretty consistently an enforcement-oriented governor. But grant his opponents the concession that while his policy instincts were always "correct" on the issue, he is a novitiate to the "tough" part of the equation. And 2008 politics may well be a reason why.
Where In The World Is....Roy Spence?
Roy Spence, a wizard in advertising circles, an adviser to Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, a best friend of the Clinton family, a Hillraiser, is in a bit of a pickle.
His firm, GSD&M, laid off 200 people. It is hemorrhaging clients.
And Spence has decided to walk it off.
He strolls 20 miles a day... part of his plan, he says, to reconnect with the earthy soul of the country. To "reach out and celebrate the goodness of America." And he's blogging about it.
Well team, it’s Day 23. It’s Monday, it’s raining and it’s before dawn and I’m driving to work. Yes, you heard it, alert, I’m driving in my new BMW 5 Series – awesome Jack and Patrick. I think it’s a loaner – but I’ll take it. I knew how to start the engine, it was good. You push the button and then the BMW basically does all the rest because it’s a great performance from a company of great ideas. Well, you know the deal. Can’t believe I’m actually driving to work, I’m covering more in this two to three minutes getting to work than I did sometimes in the first morning of my walk. Anyway, I’m home. It’s great to be home. Courtney was there, Shay, Mary, Ellie, Sammie, our friend Cissy, whose helping with the haunted house which is going to be unbelievable. So, I’m on the way to work.
It’s a little before 6am and it’s great to be home. Really is awesome to be home. I had a great journey, I learned a lot, I lived a lot, I walked a lot and I met a lot and I thought a lot. Most of all, I enjoyed the goodness that was everywhere that I went. Amazing people, amazing country, amazing land, amazing ideals and treasures and blessings in this great country. I found out a bunch of things, nothing really that would rock your world except maybe one. I’m going to be writing about that in the next couple of weeks. It all is centered around the idea that we all have two roads we can follow in life. There’s a lot of other choices we can have on what we buy, what we do and our jobs we have but really I think in life there are only two roads you can take. And you become the road that you take. And I do too.
Rudy's New New York Ad... He's Got The Yonkers Vote!
Some thoughts:
Rudy's running...for governor of New York State? This ad looks as if it's targeted to voters in Nassau or Westchester Counties...
It's a balancing act: how do you describe a pre-Giuliani New York without bashing the city and its culture? Answer: you portray Rudy Giuliani as the savior -- the man who transformed New York from an illicit haven for drug users and peep shows to the nation's most conservative city...
More Mail From Clinton
This next mail piece was sent to a male head of household; he has a wife and kids. And lo' and behold, the content is heavy on Clinton's policy proposals aimed at families.
Clinton's Mail From New Hampshire
We've been angling to get our grubby little hands on some of the mail that Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign is sending to New Hampshire Democrats. It's been hard to do in part because the campaign uses consumer modeling to precisely target their mailings. Generally, confirmed supporters of other candidates don't get them.
The person who received this piece of mail is a middle-aged woman with children and grandchildren. The Clinton campaign identifies her as likely concerned about her grandchildren's future. Hence the bullet points about Clinton's economic positions:
November 20, 2007
Dated Fred, Married Huckabee
A reader reminds me that Joe Carter, who decamped to Mike Huckabee's Little Rock-based campaign today to serve as its director of rapid response, was a founder of BlogsforFred and was, as of September 13, still a Fred supporter.
Some Questions On Disclosure
Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign is dogged by questions about disclosure. Some are fair, others aren't. But added together, they present a ripe target.
Consider:
1. The Clintons can do very little to speed along the process by which presidential documents are approved for release. But the campaign took a while to explain the process fully for reporters -- a process that is, in the end, fairly exculpatory -- and thus generated its own controversy.
2. The donors to the library are another matter entirely. The library's donation solicitors apparently promised their donors that the contributions would remain private.
3. But a list of those donors was apparently sold to a company owned by a major donor.
4. Donations continued to flow in last year, meaning that, as Clinton was preparing for a presidential run, potential donors had a private avenue to try and curry favor with the Clinton world.
5. There's no law requiring the Clinton Library to release its donors and no precedent for doing so.
6. But there's no rule, process or procedure that would _stop_ the Clinton Library from releasing its donors.
7. So -- even though there's probably nothing there, there -- the existence of a secret donor list under the Clinton's control is a real hook for her opponents to hang their charges of misdirection or mischeviousness around.
That's a margin drop from 23 to 14 points for Clinton....
No appreciable gains for any candidate but Bill Richardson....
Huckabee Hires A Rapid Responder
A sign of a mature campaign: Mike Huckabee's communications shop has hired Joe Carter, a new media whiz at the Family Research Council, to head their rapid response operation.
In an e-mail to friends today, Carter said he decided that, if he wanted to see a conservative in the White House, he'd better get off his butt and work for it.
I have a simple standard in deciding what type of candidate to support. I call it my Reagan Test: "Are they as conservative as Ronald Reagan was when he first ran for the Presidency?" Huckabee passes that test. I think he's a solid fiscal, social, and security conservative. I also think he is the only one that can beat Hillary Clinton. I don't say all this because I support Huckabee; I support Huckabee because I believe this to be true.
No Republican Is Pure On Immigration
Keep in mind, as the leading Republican presidential candidates duke it out over who's been the most aggressive towards those dastardly illegal immigrants in their states -- (I'll deprive them of education! Well, I'll deprive them of health care! I'll authorize deputies to hunt 'em down! I'll arrest people who look at 'em!) -- none of them are totally pure.
(1) Rudy Giuliani's record speaks for itself; New York City was teeming with illegal immigrants, and Giuliani refused to use city resources to round up the non-law breakers; he fought with the federal government over jurisdiction; he did little to reduce the city's status as a magnet for undocumented workers.
(2) Mitt Romney discovered the immigration issue just as it began to flare up among the Republican base; he employed them personally; he did nothing to penalize - heck, he didn't do anything to even discover -- the sanctuary cities while he was governor; a small number of state police troopers were deputized in the last months of the Romney term to enforce immigration laws....with Romney knowing, as the troopers were deputized, that his Democratic successor would immediately overturn the order...
(3) Earlier this year, Mike Huckabee was convinced that anti-immigration fervor was xenophobic; as governor, he supported in-state tuitition for children of illegal immigrants and a host of other friendly measures.
(4) Fred Thompson seemed not to care all that much about the issue until recently, although he doesn't have any explicit blemishes.
With the exception of Thompson, all of the Republican candidates with a shot at winning their party's nomination will have to spend a lot of time in the fall explaining their own evolution on immigration policy before they can use the issue to drive a wedge between Democrats and white, working class men and women.
Watch For It... WMUR Poll Of Democrats To Show Narrowing Race
Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama and the rest of the Democratic field has narrowed appreciably in the latest WMUR poll of New Hampshire Democrats, but the margin over her opponents is still in double digits...
The full numbers when I get 'em....
Democratic Convention Assigns Hotels, But Not To Florida
The Democratic National Convention Committee is bragging that it managed to find hotels within 20 miles of the Pepsi Center in Denver to host the thousands of delegates in town next summer for the Dem. National Convention.
But Florida is out of luck. In theory, the DNC doesn't expect to host a Florida delegation because the party's rules committee has stripped the state of all of its delegates.
A check of Expedia shows that the nearest hotels with availability are outside a ten mile radius -- not too bad, although a motel that advertises itself as "minutes to" both downtown Denver and downtown Aurora probably isn't too close to either.
STATE/TERRITORY HOTEL
Alabama - Doubletree Denver Stapleton
Alaska - Four Points by Sheraton Denver Southeast
American Samoa - Radisson Southeast
Arizona - Hyatt Regency Denver Tech Center
Arkansas - Marriott Denver South at Park Meadows
California - Adam's Mark
Colorado - Grand Hyatt Downtown
Connecticut - Marriott Denver Tech Center
Delaware - Marriott South at Park Meadows
Democrats Abroad - Red Lion Denver Central
District of Columbia - Crowne Plaza, Downtown
Georgia - Doubletree Denver Stapleton
Guam - Sheraton Denver Tech Center
Hawaii - Marriott Denver South at Park Meadows
Idaho - Sheraton Denver Tech Center
Illinois - Marriott City Center, Downtown
Indiana - Sheraton Denver Tech Center
Iowa - Courtyard by Marriott, Downtown
Kansas - Doubletree Denver Tech Center
Kentucky - Hilton Garden Inn, Downtown
Louisiana - Radisson Stapleton Plaza
Maine - Hilton Garden Inn, Downtown
Maryland - Renaissance Denver Hotel
Massachusetts - Renaissance Denver Hotel
Michigan - Red Lion Denver Central
Minnesota - Four Points by Sheraton Denver Southeast
Mississippi - Hilton Garden Inn Denver South/Meridian
Missouri - Embassy Suites Denver Tech Center
Montana - Courtyard Stapleton
Nebraska - Embassy Suites Denver Southeast
Nevada - Courtyard by Marriott, Downtown
New Hampshire - Wyndham Denver Tech Center
New Jersey - Inverness Hotel
New Mexico - Crowne Plaza, Downtown
New York - Adam's Mark
North Carolina - Doubletree Denver Tech Center
North Dakota - Doubletree Denver Stapleton
Ohio - Curtis Hotel, Downtown
Oklahoma - Embassy Suites SE
Oregon - Hyatt Regency Denver Tech Center
Pennsylvania - Marriott Denver Tech Center
Puerto Rico - Four Points by Sheraton Denver Southeast
Rhode Island - Four Points by Sheraton Denver Southeast
South Carolina - Radisson Stapleton Plaza
South Dakota - Doubletree Denver Stapleton
Tennessee - Marriott, Denver Tech Center
Texas - Radisson Hotel Denver Southeast
Utah - Warwick Hotel
Vermont - Magnolia Hotel
Virgin Islands - Marriott City Center
Virginia - Crowne Plaza, Downtown
Washington - Hyatt Regency, Denver Tech Center
West Virginia - Magnolia Hotel
Wisconsin - Marriott City Center
Wyoming - Hyatt Place, Denver Tech Center
Clinton's Latest NH Ad Is Rashomonic
The names of Hillary Clinton's Republican rivals are featured prominently in her latest television ad in New Hampshire, a throwback to the halcyon days of the late 1990s, when the glue that kept the Democratic Party together was the "Republican Attack Machine" (R.A.M) -- or the "Vast, Right Wing Conspiracy" that wanted to destroy the Clinton presidency.
There is something in this ad for everyone. To the Clinton campaign, raising the specter of the R.A.M. reminds Democrats of who Hillary Clinton is -- a Democrat who fights for Democrats -- and rebuts claims that she cannot be trusted to stick by Democrats when the going gets rough and tough. It also unsubtly points out that the Republicans are attacking Clinton now because they think she's going to win the nomination.
For Obama's campaign, it's a reminder of the Clinton that Democrats don't like -- the pre-Senate Clinton, the partisan Clinton, the Clinton who sold out Democrats (through her husband) at critical points in the 1990s.
For Clinton's rivals, the ad is a juicy opportunity for them to step up their attacks against Clinton. The Romney campaign, in particular, is just thrilled that Romney's picture is shown in the first few seconds. Says spokesman Kevin Madden: "Governor Romney also has a record of, and reputation for, actually getting things done. Senator Clinton has a reputation for one thing: partisanship. Extreme partisanship."
Iowa Right To Life Stays Neutral
The fracturing and independence continues. Iowa Right To Life, the most important (politically) state affiliate of National Right To Life, and the group that holds the keys to NRTL's organizational heft, is staying neutral in the primaries even though NRTL has endorsed Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson.
"It was the decision of the Iowa Right to Life Board to stay neutral at this time in order to maintain a long tradition that supports all pro-life candidates in a primary, including Fred Thompson," the group's president, Kim Lehman, said in a press release.
When Iowa Right To Life is on your side, you get dozens of active phone banks and thousands of committed volunteers. When they're on the sidelines, you get a few press releases.
November 19, 2007
The Daily Five: A New Phase
1. ABC News poll of Iowa has Obama at 30%, Clinton at 26% and Edwards at 22%... (change is "within sampling tolerances")...percentage of change voters grow...Obama leads 2-1 on trustworthiness/honesty questions...and Clinton runs third among men.....Obama runs fourth on experience.....Biden and Dodd will be in Iowa on Thanksgiving day...Obama's in NH Tuesday and Wedensday....Edwards returns to NH after Thanksgiving.....Today's edition of the syndicated game show "Family Feud" featured a presidential '08 question: which candidates seem the most presidential? In order: Clinton (39%), Giuliani (22%)....Obama (16%) And in sixth place: Romney for the steal (4%) for the steal.
2. Giuliani campaign plans to unveil more television ads in New Hampshire later this week....plans bus tour in NH this weekend... dismisses 9/11 commissioner Tom Kean Sr.'s endorsement of John McCain by saying: "'There are a lot of Republicans, I'm not going to get all the votes or all the endorsements.''.....McCain plans 7th trip to Iraq over Thanksgiving......Rush Limbaugh predicts that Mike Huckabee could finish second in Iowa but won't get the nomination....CW says that Huckabee's rise helps Giuliani....Romney campaign publicly and privately seethes at National Review Online for printing story suggesting they were behind anti-Romney push-polls....Romney and Giuliani trade cliched sanctuary city/illegal immigration/border security charges...
3. A new phase: Clinton campaign will begin daily, on-the-record rebuttals to everything Barack Obama says...John Edwards's words will be paid attention to occasionally.... A rival campaign aide writes: "Our ID calls are showing softening, with people saying they have increasing doubts about[Hillary's] conviction, etc. not a ton, but significant."
4. A Guide To The Day:
Obama, over the weekend: Clinton's spreading negative info about me, according to Bob Novak. She should be ashamed.
Clinton campaign, over the weekend: Not true, Obama is taking a page from the GOP play book and shouldn't be so naive. Don't play the victim card, Senator.
Clinton, today: Obama lacks experience; the economy is too important to be left to a neophyte; the Republicans are bad and dangerous.
Obama today: I have plenty of experience, Clinton just says "experience" and doesn't back it up, and, oh, by the way, Clinton distorts my policy proposals.
Clinton campaign today: Obama's health care plan wouldn't cover 15M Americans.
RNC interlude: Obama's experience is thin.
RNC interlude: HRC is debating with herself, and she's gonna raise taxes.
Obama campaign today: Clinton is beginning to lose this thing, so she's turning desparate.
Clinton campaign today: How sad. Obama has replaced the politics of hope with the politics of attack.
5. A reader writes: "In light of President Musharraf holding Pakistan's election on Jan. 8, I hope Gardner won't announce that NH will now be in December since NH law prohibits a similar event within 7 days of NH."
Here's CNN/WMUR's latest offering, taken over the past five days:
** No appreciable gains for Sen. John McCain over the past two months, even though voters there list Iraq as the most important problem and list McCain as the candidate who can best solve it.
** Immigration and terrorism are top concerns for roughly 15 percent of the electorate each. And more than 40% of voters say that Romney is best able to handle immigration. (He gets high marks for taxes, too).
** Mitt Romney's rising; Giuliani and Thompson are falling. Paul rises within the margin of error.
** 56% of the electorate is undecided.
Presidential Debates, Formats Announced: MS, TN and NY get the Presidential Honors
All subject to negotiation and change, of course, by the candidates and their representatives themselves.
Friday, September 26 -- a presidential debate on domestic policy at the University of Mississippi, Oxford (whoops -- a previous version of this post said Biloxi.)
Thursday, October 2 -- a vice presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis
Tuesday, October 7 -- a presidential debate -- town hall meeting format, Belmont University, Nashville, TN
And October 16, a presidential debate about foreign policy at Hofstra University in Hempstead, NY.
And the CPD has kept its ballot access requirements in check: in order to participate, candidates' parties need to be on enough ballots to provide them with a mathematical chance of winning... and must receive 15% or higher in reputable public opinion polls.
Michigan Appeals Primary Date Decision To State Supreme Court
We're still no closer to knowing when (or if) Michigan will hold their presidential primary in January. Today, the state's attorney general asked the state supreme court to let the state, for heaven's sake, keep its Jan. 15 primary law. A lower-court judge invalidated the primary because the state parties wouldn't have share information about who voted and in what primary.
To make Jan. 15 work, the state says it needs to send out absentee ballots by Dec. 1. And, of course, NH Sec/State Bill Gardner is waiting to see what Michigan does before he schedules the New Hampshire Primary.
Republican legislators seem more willing than Democratic legislators to try their hand at a new law. Why? Dems in particular worry that the elections will be used to collect signatures for recall petitions in light of the state's historic tax hike. If, say, 2 million Michiganders show up on Jan. 15, it'll be much easier to collect recall signatures by district. Once the petititon is initiated, the collectors need 10,000 signatures per district and have 90 days to complete the task.
Remember: if there's no agreement, the GOP will hold a convention on Jan. 25-26, and Dems will hold a caucus at a date TBA.
RNC's Caustic Response To Obama's Claims Of Experience
With enemies like these, who needs friends?
From the Republican National Committee:
OBAMA’S TOP 5 FOREIGN POLICY CREDENTIALS
Foreign Policy Credential #1: “Life Of Living Overseas” For 4 Years…In Elementary School:
Foreign Policy Credential #2: Took Some College Courses In International Relations:Foreign Policy Credential #3: Has Passed Only One Bill As A Senator…It Dealt With A Foreign Country:
Foreign Policy Credential Number #4: Already Developed A Relationship With Australia’s Prime Minister; Now Ready To Meet With State Sponsors Of Terror:
Foreign Policy Credential #5: Member Of Foreign Relations Committee…Reluctantly.
"Having lived by the polls, Hillary Clinton is now panicked by them. It was just nine days ago that Hillary Clinton told 9,000 Iowa Democrats that she wasn't going to attack other Democrats."
Obviously that has changed as it has become clear we'll be holding a caucus, not a coronation, in Iowa. Barack Obama has been fighting for working families since he helped neighborhoods devastated by steel plant closings as a community organizer over two decades ago, and he'll be a President who delivers change working Americans can believe in by taking on the special interests and bringing this country together. America needs a president who will be candid about the challenges we face and honest about how we should address them."
Responds Phil Singer:
That's a curious comment from a campaign that traded the politics of hope in for the poltics of attack.
John Fund Identifies The Obama "Rumor"
Why does it seem that Republican columnists have better sources among Democrats than everyone else?
Here's John Fund, writing in today's OpinionJournal.com:
The murmured charge is that as an Illinois state senator, Mr. Obama engaged in a real estate deal that benefited him in exchange for legislative favors. In short, what might pass for standard operating procedure in the Illinois legislature could nonetheless prove embarrassing to someone campaigning as a paragon of political virtue for president. So far, however, no proof of the allegation has been presented.
Pretty thin stuff. And haven't we heard the Tony Rezko tale already?
For the record, the Obama and Clinton campaigns try to plant negative stories about each other all the time. Felonious fundraisers, issue positions, legislative records, the occasional guilt-by-association catches -- those are fair game.
Other stuff seems to be off-limits.
Earlier this year, Obama donor David Geffen mouthed off to Maureen Dowd about the verbotten subject of the Clintons' private life, triggering an intense bout of jockeying between the Clinton and Obama campaigns. Then -- silence.
Except for the isolated occurrance -- an Obama aide plopped down next to me at a campaign event and wondered when reporters would begin to look into Clinton's postpresidential sex life - not a single rumor about the subject has eminated from the Obama world.
Some aides been gotten dressed down for talking about the subject, even in private, with other campaign staffers.
Likewise, no one in the Clinton universe has ever tried to convince me to look into something scandalous about Obama's past -- all the bad stuff -- cocaine use, hard-knuckle Chicago political tactics -- is out there already.
One caveat: "The Clinton Universe" is so big that there are bound to be free agents operating without sanction. When one of those advisers, for example, made fun of John McCain's experience in a Vietnamese prison cell last year, Hillary Clinton, and not McCain, was embarassed and forced to apologize on behalf of someone who claimed to be close to her.
Past scandals have been generated by campaigns. Who tipped off reporters to allegations of Gary Hart's indelity? To Joe Biden's plagiarism of a British politician's speech?
But these days, with the profusion of voices and outlets, rumors don't need official channels to spread, and often, campaigns caught spreading them risk the ultimate penalty.
So if campaigns don't traffic in these rumors, who does?
Supporters do -- it's true that reporters in Iowa and New Hampshire are accosted by Democrats who don't like Hillary Clinton and wonder why the press doesn't ask her about her husband's fidelity.
Donors do -- think of Gossip Girl set in a Georgetown salon.
Opposition parties do -- everyone tends to assume that negative stuff against Hillary Clinton is being sent around by her Democratic opponents. Not always true.
And reporters do -- we can't help it.
Everyone Is Ignoring Wyoming...
Except for Wyoming.
The state Republican Party will hold a convention on Jan. 5 to select its delegates. Even Bill Gardner, the watchful Secretary of State of New Hampshire, isn't paying any attention.
Check this front-page photo spread dedicated to a recent Mitt Romney visit:
Giuliani's New "Leadership" Ad
Rudy Giuliani's second TV ad, airing in NH, is just like its first: it starts with an innoculatory note of humility -- don't pay attention to what folks say about my personal life; I'm not perfect -- and then it pivots to a generic assertion that people are "going to find somebody who has dealt with crisis almost on a regular basis and has had results. And in many cases, exceptional results. Results people thought weren't possible."
There's no mention of 9/11, or of crime, or of welfare reform -- perhaps those details will be filled in later.
Clinton, On Offense, Strikes At Obama's "experience"
In a clear swipe at Barack Obama, Sen. Hillary Clinton says the economic travails of the country are too important to be left to a candidate with little domestic policy experience.
"There is one job we can't afford: on-the-job training for our next president," Clinton told a crowd in Knoxville, IA today, according to excerpts obtained by the AP's Clinton beat writer, Beth Fouhy. That could be the costliest job training in history."
"Every day spent learning the ropes is another day of rising costs, mounting deficits and growing anxiety for our families. And they cannot afford to keep waiting."
Clinton does not use Obama's name, but the actions by her campaign to make sure reporters noticed the speech today suggests that Obama's experience is the prime target. It's the first time, in fact, that Clinton has used a speech to directly challenge Obama's credentials. Generally, Clinton says that "change" is "just a word without the strength and experience to make it happen." Today, she elaborates: "It’s easy to make up a program to address every economic problem. But it’s hard to figure out how to pay for it."
Clinton also says she "can’t wait to get on the stage to debate the Republican nominee as we make the case for change, and they argue for the status quo. To them, it’s “leave no Bush economic policy behind.”
County Dems In Iowa Having Trouble Finding Temporary Caucus Chairs (Update)
Update: this isn't so bad.... 23 positions out of 183 are unfilled two and a half weeks after the date changed.... that's actually a pretty solid rate of recruitment.
An e-mail sent out by the chair of the Polk. Co. Iowa Democrats suggests that some county Democratic parties are having trouble finding so-called "temporary caucus chairs" for the Jan. 3. precinct caucus.
The "temporary" in their name is misleading -- these folks are tasked with nine separate duties before they supervise the election of the precinct's "permanent chair," who conducts the actual caucus.
Without skilled hands in the "temporary caucus chair" position, a caucus meeting could quickly become chaotic.
Democratic presidential campaigns are busy recruiting their own precinct captains and their preferred candidates for permanent chairs, so the task of finding knowledgable enough, fair enough, and gregarious enough Iowa Democrats to serve as the temporary caucus chairs is left to the ostensibly non-partisan county parties.
An e-mail by the Polk. Co. Dem chair to activists shows that 23 temporary caucus chair positions are are currently unfilled. The subject line of the e-mail: "Caucuses are only 44 days away and I need your help!"
Today: Barack Obama proposes an "American Opportunity Tax Credit" that would take care of the first $4,000 of the cost of college education, thereby making community college free for those who wanted it.
On Aug. 8, enterprising presidential candidate Chris Dodd unveiled his proposal to "Provide an opportunity for free community college to every American."
Mike Huckabee's first ad is provoking all sorts of responses. Some say that it's not serious enough; others are just obsessed with the pop culture emination that is Chuck Norris.
The most salient fact to me is that the campaign purchased $60,000 worth of traffic -- not enough to really move votes on its own, but certainly enough to convince the media to play the ad for free, which, beginning on Fox News Sunday, it did.
The ad very gently addresses some of Huckabee's blind spots, including his record of support for in-state tuition for undocument immigrants. It also allows Iowans to put a face with the name -- ah, this is the guy they've been hearing about, and, huh, it turns out that he's a bit charming.
November 16, 2007
Iowa Republican Chairman Takes Staff To Woodshed
So yesterday, the Republican Party of Iowa released, in the name of executive director Chuck Laudner, a statement about the cancellation of a planned debate in December.
Laudner blamed the "frontrunner" Romney campaign for canceling, a rare and unusual rebuke from a state party to a candidate.
The Romney brain trust was rather upset. And late today, the chairman of the Iowa GOP, Ray Hoffmann, apologized.
"DES MOINES -- Yesterday, members of our staff put out a misleading
statement concerning Mitt Romney and the cancellation of the RPI/FOX NEWS debate. We regret this statement."
"The facts are that a number of campaigns had scheduling conflicts, such that the debate could not take place."
Tomorrow's Iowa news, tonight.
Still No Michigan Primary On Jan. 15.
Today, an appeals court upheld a lower court's ruling invalidating the Jan. 15 primary.....
So: two possible courses of action.
(1) -- the state legislature passes and the governor signs a bill setting Jan. 15 as the date but with a modified provision for voting lists. This would have to happen next week.
(2) -- the parties could choose to hold their own contests... the Dems might hold a caucus and the GOP might hold a convention. Depending upon the dates of those contests, the DNC and RNC could sanction them -- or penalize the parties for scheduling them.
Until Michigan settles on a date or dates, New Hampshire's Secretary of State won't schedule the primary...although if Michigan dawdles, Sec. Gardner's hand will be forced.
Push Poll Weirdness
Republican blogger Soren Dayton is not a fan of Mitt Romney's, but this conclusion of his seems accurate:
Mitt Romney is family friends with the Founder and Chairman of the company that is placing anti-Mormon and anti-Romney phone calls?
As he writes: who would have the audacity to use a Utah call center to make anti-Mormon calls?
The implication, if I understand Dayton, is that Romney allies (operating separately from the campaign) might somehow be involved in this...maybe trying to gin up sympathy for their candidate.
That's most unlikely, but it really is, as they say, a small world.
The Daily Five: Peter Flaherty's Brother
1. Tomorrow: HRC's in Nevada and LA; Edwards is in NH; Dodd's in IA; McCain's in NH; Obama's raising money in TX; Ron Paul is in IA, as is Mitt Romney. On Sunday, George S. goes on the trail with Fred Thompson, Face has Edwards, FNS has Hukcbaee, and Tim has N/A. Joe Biden will spend the next 11 days in Iowa.
2. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis on strategy: "Everyone's caught up in this macro-strategy s--- ...it's a big waste of time."..... McCain calls for NH AG investigation into anti-Romney push poll calls... Romney's team makes similar request to NH AG through Sen. Judd Gregg...Thompson's comm. dir Todd Harris calls the push polls "robo-dial bigotry"....culprits still unknown...campaigns seek to track down and analyze audio....McCain's NH schedule hampered by snowstorm....Francis "Chip" Flaherty is one of the most influential social conservatives you've never heard of. He's also the brother of Mitt Romney's deputy campaign managers, Peter Flaherty......Dd you know that Ron Paul favors decriminalizing prostitution?
Director Media and Communications for GOP Presidential Campaign Based in DC Metro Area. Must have significant media and communications experience. Send resume to DCMediaCommunicationPosition@gmail.com.
5. CW says that immigration will be a wedge issue for Republicans in '08? Or will it? Won't the records of Rudy Giuliani (sanctuary city!) and Mitt Romney (last minute deputizing) defuse the issue and make it harder for Republicans to draw a clear line between them and Democrats?
"Oh -- was just a fun one day thing to set up the debate. Takes too much "gardening and tending."
Will Obama Turn Out Young Voters In Iowa?
Barack Obama's presidential campaign is turning to seasoned veterans of the Iowa caucus process to help school newcomers in the caucuses' arcane mathematics.
The campaign calls these folks "Caucus Pros." 73 so far have been recruited to teach new caucus goers "of all ages," an Obama press release states.
The Obama's campaign turnout model incorporates large numbers of Democratic leaning independents who have never caucused and young voters who have never voted in a presidential race.
We'll deal with independents at some other point, but just how many young caucus goers will actually show up on January 3?
Here are some arguments, pro-and-con.
Pro: Yes, the Orange Bowl is on Jan. 3 during caucus time. No one watches the Orange Bowl -- can you even remember who played in last year's game? (Wake Forest v. Louisville). The Bowl rated fourth for the night, barely beating Dateline: NBC.
Con: College football parity, baby. The Orange Bowl might matter this year.
Pro: College kids will be back home and will be distributed throughout the state, thereby magnifying their effect on other precincts. (The scenario: four Iowa State University students don't caucus in Ames; they caucus in Adair County, where they live, and have a disproportionate effect on their particular caucus meeting). (The political director of the IA Dem party agrees with this argument).
Con: It's much harder to track these kids and to make sure that, when they're back home, they do caucus.
Pro: Obama has more money than any other credible challenger in history; his campaign is not making the same mistakes that Howard Dean's made; Obama is a much better presence on the campaign trail than Bill Bradley and Gary Hart ever were;
Con: There is no historical precedent for changing the demographic composition of the turnout universe that radically.
Pro: Caucus turnout could reach 160,000.
Con: No one but the Obama team believes that -- other campaigns estimate a turnout of about 135,000 Dems.
Con: One third of Iowa college students live outside of Iowa, many of them in Illinois, and Obama can't rely on them because they can't vote if they're not registered in Iowa.
Pro: Two thirds of Iowa college students come from Iowa, and the Obama campaign has undertaken a fairly massive effort to make sure they are registered to vote. Potential college-aged supporters are tracked as regularly as veteran caucus goers.
Grinnell -- one precinct -- if they're spread across the state, you can't run up the state. Those precincts have a low weight because turnout is smaller in the general election.
Risk V. Reward: The Anti-Romney Phone Calls
Whodunnit?
Here is why it is unlikely that Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson or any top-tier challenger to Mitt Romney had anything to do with the wave of anti-Mormon, Anti-Romney phone calls in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Think about the reward. Would the questions asked by the firm elicit any meaningful data for the campaign who wrote them? Would the relative reward of a few dozen voters changing their minds about Romney because of his Mormonism be worth the avalanche of embarassment and ill-will that would accrue to the candidate who authorized the phone calls?
Political consultants aren't stupid -- they understand that culprits eventually will out, that the profusion of citizen reporters and company moles virtually guarantees that the identity of the organization that contracted with the phone bank will one day be known.
Even if the goal is to earn media coverage by planting some audacious phone calls and then allowing the media pick up on them -- notice how the media coverage repeats the explicit anti-Mormon claims -- it's probably true that the sympathy that attaches itself to Romney washes out the reptition.
My guess: the responsible party is a free agent sympathetic to but not associated with a real campaign -- or an anti-GOP group testing messages -- or a dull party apparatchick who works for a small, inconsequential interest group funded by wealthy donors.
"Diamonds v. Pearls" Student Blasts CNN (Updated With CNN Response)
Maria Luisa, the UNLV student who asked Hillary Clinton whether she preferred "diamonds or pearls" at last night's debate wrote on her MySpace page this morning that CNN forced her to ask the frilly question instead of a pre-approved query about the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository.
"Every single question asked during the debate by the audience had to be approved by CNN," Luisa writes. "I was asked to submit questions including "lighthearted/fun" questions. I submitted more than five questions on issues important to me. I did a policy memo on Yucca Mountain a year ago and was the finalist for the Truman Scholarship. For sure, I thought I would get to ask the Yucca question that was APPROVED by CNN days in advance."
Now, Luisa is getting "swamped" with critical e-mails.
So what happened?
Writes Luisa:
"CNN ran out of time and used me to "close" the debate with the pearls/diamonds question. Seconds later this girl comes up to me and says, "you gave our school a bad reputation.' Well, I had to explain to her that every question from the audience was pre-planned and censored. That's what the media does. See, the media chose what they wanted, not what the people or audience really wanted. That's politics; that's reality. So, if you want to read about real issues important to America--and the whole world, I suggest you pick up a copy of the Economist or the New York Times or some other independent source. If you want me to explain to you how the media works, I am more than happy to do so. But do not judge me or my integrity based on that question."
Rivals to Clinton believe that the debate audience had a pro-Clinton tilt. UNLV was responsible for distributing most of the tickets.
In a separate post, Luisa provides the question she wanted to ask:
Yucca Mountain, NV is the proposed site for the country's nuclear waste
repository. Despite scientific evidence that it is a vulnerable site, the federal
government continues to push for the plan to move forward. The evidence
relied on is unsound and the risks involved in transporting high-level
radioactive waste across the country are high. What will you [Sen. Clinton] do to ensure that the best site/s is/are chosen for the storage of spent nuclear reactor fuel?
Sam Feist, the executive producer of the debate, said that the student was asked to choose another question because the candidates had already spent about ten minutes discussing Yucca Mountain.
"When her Yucca mountain question was asked, she was given the opportunity to ask another question, and my understanding is that the [diamond v. pearls] questions was her other question," Feist said. "She probably was disappointed, but we spent a lot of time with a bunch of different candidates on Yucca Mountain, and we were at the end of the debate."
Greg Sargent of TPM Election Central has a CNN spoxperson giving a slightly different story...
Is This "Senior Adviser" Doing Wolf Blitzer Any Favors?
CNN debate moderator Wolf Blitzer did an 'outstanding' job in Vegas, a senior adviser to the Hillary campaign said early Friday. 'He was outstanding, and did not gang up like Russert did in Philadelphia. He avoided the personal attacks, remained professional and ran the best debate so far. Voters were the big winners last night.'
A rival campaign insider charges: 'Wolf turned into a lamb. No follow-up question on Clinton's huge flip on drivers licenses?'
Clinton's NAFTA Reversal
On his blog, NewWest populist / John Edwards supporter David Sirota takes Hillary Clinton to the woodshed for allegedly laughing about the consequences of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Clinton's concession last night that NAFTA was a mistake because ""it did not deliver" is said to represent the final length of the 180 degree turn that the Democratic Party has run on trade agreements. She's proposed a "strategic pause" in signing future agreements, has acknowledged the value-negative effect of NAFTA on wages, has catalogued a list of problems with current trade agreements...
But has Clinton really become a fair trader? Or is she modulating her language to adapt to the populist vapors of the Democratic base? A case can be made for the latter -- and in this case, it's instructive to compare the Republican elite's view of immigration to the Democratic elite's view of trade.
Privately, many Republican leaders in Congress and most of the party's presidential candidates favor comprehensive immigration reform. Their base does not, and so they have shifted their rhetoric most abruptly -- Mike Huckabee, not too long ago, attributed much of the anti-reform sentiment to xenophobia. Most of the GOP candidates refuse to even propose a solution to deal with the 13 million or so undocumented workers/illegal immigrants who are here.
In the same vein, Clinton (and Barack Obama) face a reality that the Democratic base lives elsewhere. The rhetoric changes and carrots are offered: Periodically reviewing trade agreements, as Clinton wants to do, isn't the same thing as cancelling them; a temporary pause is not the same thing as a permanent moratorium until labor standards can be brought up to snuff; adding oversight to enforce current law is...adding oversight. Proponents of this view note that she supports expanding NAFTA to include Peru...as did Obama. At the core of this critique is the idea that Clinton remains a captive of the corporate interests who pushed NAFTA and who have funded the Clinton political machine for decades.
But then again, Clinton has expanded her circle of economic advisers to include opponents of NAFTA. She voted against CAFTA in 2005 -- very much a surprise. She's taken a tough line against Chinese currency manipulation.
This strategic ambiguity may be useful, and it's doubtful that swing voters in 2008 will object to Clinton if she moves a little to the left on trade.
But how should Democratic voters decipher her signals? Should fair-traders trust Clinton? Should free-traders? Will Clinton, as president, defer to Congress?
Obama And The UAW Region 4 Endorsement
The Press: "Barack Obama on Thursday won the support of United Auto Workers Region 4, a union that represents roughly 68,000 active Midwest members."
The rest of the story*:
(0) Sen. Barack Obama won a straw poll of UAW Region 4 locals. Region 4 includes Iowa.
(1) 48% of the voting members of UAW's Region 4 came from Illinois. Barack Obama comes from Illinois.
(2) 22% of the voting members come from Iowa. It turns out that, in today's straw balloting, John Edwards won twice as many Iowa locals as Obama did.
But the strength of Obama in Illinois overwhelmed Edwards (and Clinton).
(3) What happened yesterday in Dubuque was not an official endorsement -- it was a recommendation to endorse -- the UAW technically hasn't given its regional council permission to endorse.
*reprinted from last night.
November 15, 2007
Call It A Comeback?
Tonight’s debate will probably stop the talk of a huge momentum swing away from Hillary Clinton. Though a little overly conducted at times, Clinton did not sound any obvious false notes, nor did she strike confusing or conflicting notes, and, as a bonus, she got an entire minute and a half to make her rah-rah appeal to women. Clinton had the most at stake tonight, and she arguably gave her most commanding performance to date.
As for lines to use against the Dems, Danny Diaz and the crew at the RNC have little to pick and choose from, and the PH level of the debate was noticeably basic after an opening exchange that Clinton smoothly handled (while Obama, seemingly surprised that Clinton turned the tables on him, looked a little rattled). Clinton’s opponents seemed to calculating their pressure, unsure of how she’d respond, and not wanting to sound grating or mean. Toward the end, when Obama compared Clinton’s answer on a Social Security question to Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, Clinton responded by pointing out how the general thrust of her position was exactly like Obama…dismissing his taunts with a substantive response.
Richardson had his best performance of all the previous debates. On mental health, on veterans’ health, on energy, on trade policy – he was clear, concise, natural-sounding, in command of his answers, and persuasive. Viewers leaned that he was a governor who solved problems, who wasn’t in Congress, who has clear differences with the rest of the field on a variety of issues, and who sounded reasonable. Where has this Bill Richardson been?
On driver’s licenses for immigrants, Hillary Clinton was given a pass for her sudden discovery of a position. Asked a yes or no question by Wolf Blitzer, Obama did answer the question with a “yes, but” -- but Blitzer didn’t believe that…in part because Obama then said, “I am not proposing that’s what we do…” and then, theatrically said: giving the viewer the impression that Obama was being fuzzy. It was a fun moment for the Clinton boiler room, but it wasn’t deathly; if the exchange had confirmed something about Obama’s inexperience, then it would have hurt him. But because it arguably reflected a weakness of Clinton’s, it helps Clinton more than it hurts Obama.
Obama elsewhere was strong, giving eloquent and learned answers on China and trade, questioning Wolf Blitzer on premises at times, returning to his campaign themes of possibility, optimism and hope. At moments, Obama was overshadowed by Edwards, who had an audience-pleasing exchange with the mother of an Iraq war veteran whose son feared being deployed to Iran – an interjection forced Obama to concede that he had not been in Washington for the vote. Edwards was Edwards; his campaign believes there was a seismic shift in the race tonight, with Edwards, Obama and Clinton all on equal footing. Eh…
The Democrats spent a lot of time debating debates: what’s appropriate, what’s not, what questions are fair, who’s ganging up on who, who gets more time, whether the party is hurt by back-and-forths.
Chris Dodd seemed to be completely in the background tonight. Not his fault -- he got almost no question.
This Debate Was Supposed To End At 10....
Biden Promises To Appoint A Woman To SCOTUS
According To The Edwards Campaign, This Was The Exchange Of The Night
The news: The Democrats have diverse views on driver’s license for illegals…..Clinton concedes that NAFTA was a mistake…Clinton can give as good as she gets…Richardson has his best night yet….Obama admits that he was wrong to miss Lieberman-Kyl....
In Case You Missed It...
On Social Security, Clinton does not want to raise the payroll tax cap entirely .... calls it unfair.. a trillion dollar tax hike on the middle class....
Obama compares HRC to Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani...saying she is "playing with numbers in order to make a point..." Audience oohs....
Clinton: "It is absolutely the case that there are people who would find that burdensome. I represent firefighters, I represent school supervisors. You have to look at this across the board... I listened very carefully to what Sen. Obama said... he basically said that he was looking at a lot of different things and wanted a bipartisan commission...that's what I think we should do."
Here's The Full Transcript Of The Exchange On Immigration
BLITZER: All right. I want to just press you on this point, because it's a logical follow-up, and then I want to go and ask everyone.
On the issue that apparently tripped up Senator Clinton earlier, the issue of driver's licenses for illegal immigrants, I take it, Senator Obama, you support giving driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.
Is that right?
OBAMA: When I was a state senator in Illinois, I voted to require that illegal aliens get trained, get a license, get insurance to protect public safety. That was my intention.
(APPLAUSE)
And -- but I have to make sure that people understand. The problem we have here is not driver's licenses. Undocumented workers do not come here to drive.
(LAUGHTER)
They don't go -- they're not coming here to go to the In-N-Out Burger. That's not the reason they're here. They're here to work.
And so instead of being distracting by what has now become a wedge issue, let's focus on actually solving the problem that this administration, the Bush administration, had done nothing about it.
BLITZER: Well, let's go through everybody because I want to be precise. I want to make sure the viewers and those of us who are here fully understand all of your positions on this barring -- avoiding, assuming -- there isn't going to be comprehensive immigration reform.
Do you support or oppose driver's licenses for illegal immigrants?
OBAMA: I am not proposing that that's what we do.
OBAMA: What I'm saying is that we can't...
(LAUGHTER)
No, no, no, no. Look, I have already said, I support the notion that we have to deal with public safety and that driver's licenses at the same level can make that happen.
But what I also know...
BLITZER: All right...
OBAMA: But what I also know, Wolf, is that if we keep on getting distracted by this problem, then we are not solving it.
BLITZER: But -- because this is the kind of question that is sort of available for a yes or no answer.
(LAUGHTER)
Either you support it or you oppose it.
(APPLAUSE)
The Iran Question
Comes from a mother whose son, a vet, fears going back to the region, in Iran.
Biden answers solemnly, mentions Lieberman-Kyl... Clinton says the vote was part of her carrot-and-stick approach....Edwards gets the audience to gasp when he points out that Bush Admin. called Iran a profilerator of WMDS... that line also gets gasps on the campaign trail... and then very hearty applause...and nods from the mothers. A key moment tonight for Edwards.... Obama..the next president needs to exercise bold diplomacy....
Dean Of Nevada Press Corps: Richardson Lies On Yucca
Nevada journalist Jon Ralston is sending out updates... with his permission, here's one he posted about Bill Richardson and Yucca Mountain:
Richardson: "All my life I opposed the site"
Need I tell everyone, again, this is a flat-out lie. I am still waiting for his campaign to produce one statement from Richardson when he was DOE secretary that shows he was against the dump as he moved it along, testified before Congress that it was progressing and did not answer Nevada governors' requests to disqualify it when he could.
Truth is: All his life he supported Yucca Mountain.... until he ran for
president.
"People are not attacking me because I'm a woman. They're attacking me because I'm ahead."
Repeats the kitchen line.
"This is really one of the kind of issues that we can laugh about. Several of us would never have had the chance to run for president if it hadn't been for the progress in America over my lifetime..."
Asked about "boys club" line -- HRC puts it in a larger context.
"To be able to aim towards the hardest, highest glass ceiling...is humbling. As I travel around the country, fathers drive hours to bring their daughters to my events...and so many women in their nineties wait hours to shake my hand.."
On NAFTA, Was Ross Perot Right?
HRC: "All I can remember from that is a bunch of charts...NAFTA did not do what many had hoped....we do need to figure out how to have trade relations that are smart....It was a mistake to the extent that it did not deliver as we thought it would..."
Obama reiterates support for the Peru Trade Agreement....gives a solid answer on China and the example of Japan. A very astute answer on a complex subject...a mastery of a domestic issue that doesn't come up everyday in every state...
Obama's Driver's License Answer Not Clintonian?
So e-mails an Obama supporter:
He said he supports it for public safety purposes. that's it.
It's not clintonian or unclear. wolf wants a yes or no. Obama gave him a yes and explained why.
Obama = Clintonian On Driver's Licenses?
Wolfie asks about driver's licenses for illegal immigrants:
At first, Obama doesn't have a yes or no answer...: "I support the notion that we have to deal with public safety...and that driver's license at the state level can make that happen..."
Wolf: "This is the kind of a question that is sort of available for a yes or no answer...."
Edwards: "No...But.."
Dodd: "No..."
Obama: "Yes...But..."
Clinton: "No..."
Kucinich: "I take issue with your description of their being illegal immigrants..."
Richardson: "My answer is yes, and I did it..."
Biden: "No...."
Yay -- differences of opinion, and an exchange that Patti Solis Doyle could not have scripted better.
Nice Local Reference...
"Illegal immigrants...aren't coming here to go to the Inn-N-Out Burger..."
It seems like Obama wants to start a generational war…
It seems like Sen. Clinton's plan... doesn’t end the war
All I want to say is, give peace a chance.
says: "Let's be positive."
The Crowd Doesn't Seem To Like Edwards's Criticism Of HRC
Biden Has Some Good Lines
Manages to rise above Edwards, Clinton and Obama.
"Ladies and gentleman, every political campaign gets to this place...and I'm not criticizing any of the three people who are the ones who always get to talk about these things...this is not about experience, it's not about change, it's about action..."
Very strong encapsulation and pivoting here...
And Back To HRC
HRC: "I respect all my colleagues on the stage..., I don't mind taking hits on my record, on issues, but when someone starts throwing mud, I wish ...we can hope that it is accurate and not out of the Republican playbook.:"
Repeats: "The American people know where I stand."
HRC: "For him to be throwing this mud really detracts from what we're doing here tonight."
Edwards Rises Above The Quarreling Obama-Clinton Duo
And returns the subject to Pres. Bush....
Says HRC voted with Bush and Cheney (and the neocons) on Lieberman-Kyl...
Mentions Soc. Security..
"Says she says she will bring change to Washington while she continues to defend a system that is broken, that is rigged, that is corrupt..."
And... HRC Responds
Boy does Obama look unhappy...lips pursed....when HRC said that Obama "wasn't there" when it comes to proposing universal health care....
"Obama's plan would leave 15,000,000 out.."
Obama: "Let's talk about health care... I do provide universal coverage..."
The crowd seems to be Obama.
Clinton "cannot let that go unanswered."
"The most important thing is to level with the American people. Sen. Obama's health care plan does not cover everyone... He does not mandate the kind of coverage that I do...and I provide a health care tax credit...so that every American can afford it..."
Obama begs to have a chance to respond..
He gets one..
Some heckler disrupts his answer.
His answer is a little less crisp than hers.
But nice confrontation.
Obama On HRC
A high fastball over the plate..
"Sen. Clinton is a capable politician...and I think she has run a terrific campaign...but I think the American people are looking for straight answers to tough questions...and we haven't seen that from Hillary Clinton."
Lists driver's licenses and Social Security...
I Will Do My Best
Not to criticize the questions.... after all, I'm not up there... but...
CNN Talks and Talks and Talks
Eight minutes before the first question....
Kind of a like a Roger Altman tracking shot.
Some Caution On Obama's UAW Endorsement...
In Dubuque, Iowa today:
(0) Sen. Barack Obama won a straw poll of UAW Region 4 locals. Region 4 includes Iowa.
(1) 48% of the voting members of UAW's Region 4 came from Illinois. Barack Obama comes from Illinois.
(2) 22% of the voting members come from Iowa. It turns out that, in today's straw balloting, John Edwards won twice as many Iowa locals as Obama did.
But the strength of Obama in Illinois overwhelmed Edwards (and Clinton).
(3) What happened today in Dubuque was not an official endorsement -- it was a recommendation to endorse -- the UAW technically hasn't given its regional council permission to endorse.
(4) Obama probably will get the UAW endorsement in Iowa... and it's certainly a helpful endorsement.... but it should not be treated as a surprise... nor should it technically be treated as an endorsement just yet.
In essence, he imparts conventional wisdom. The strength of Rudy Giuliani's candidacy surprises him. And Mitt Romney is running a "textbook" campaign.
On That UAW Endorsement....
The UAW's Region 4 claims it has endorsed Barack Obama... Barack Obama claims he has the endorsement of UAW Region 4... so even though Obama's say that the endorsement isn't formal, it doesn't really matter.
The endorsement carries the support of about 30,000 enthusiastic boots on the ground. They're concentrated mainly in industrial urban areas like Dubuque.
UAW's regions endorse separately, and Region 4 includes quite a number of Illinois members.
The Daily Five: BO BHO Edition
Note: Las Vegas Dem debate will be liveblogged here.
1. Tomorrow: Rudy Giuliani addresses the Federalist Society in Washington; campaign bills it as major address and notes how many FedSoc luminaries are Rudy supporters; Bush speaks tonight; Hillary Clinton has two town halls in Nevada; Chris Dodd has house parties in Iowa; John McCain stops by Dixville Notch in NH. Bill Clinton is in Manchester. Obama and Giuliani have New Hampshire bus tours next week.
2. Mitt Romney's internal polling confirms a Huckabee rise in Iowa... a new KCCI poll of IA Dems shows a virtual dead heat between Clinton and Obama with John Edwards right outside the 5 point margin of error. Clinton's brain trust believes the polls overstate Obama's support. In Florida, Giuliani claims that Romney has seen the error of his ways on health care; Romney team says Rudy fails to understand basics of free-market economics. Thompson gives interview to NRO's Larry Kudlow.
3. The United Auto Workers Region 4 (including Iowa) is probably a few weeks away from formally endorsing a candidate, but Barack Obama has the inside track. Both John Edwards and Hillary Clinton made strong pitches to the members in recent weeks. Members held a convention today where a mock straw poll was expected to go in Obama's favor; it's non-binding, though, and technically, none of the regional UAWs have been given permission to endorse on their own just yet.
4. The cablers can't get enough of Kerik/Giuliani/Regan; Fox is giving plenty of attention to Huckabee's tax gaffe....Sidney Blumenthal is now an official adviser to the Clinton campaign, per TPM...New Fox News poll of Dems show race basically unchanged....uptick for McCain on the GOP side...McCain still performs best v. Clinton...Barack Obama begins airing new NH ad tomorrow called "chances I had"...refers to his father's abandonment of his family when he was young.....YearlyKos blogger convention changes name to "Netroots Nation" -- it's scheduled for July 17-20, 2008 in Austin,TX.....The Republican Party of Iowa cancels its December 4 debate because candidates had "scheduling conflicts".... Thompson seeks interns through Facebook: "Political, Finance, Administration, Press, Research, and eCampaign/IT" positions are available.....and Karl Rove will balance out Markos at Newsweek.
5. Internally, Barack Obama's aides refer to their boss as "BO" in shorthand; externally, some rivals refer to him as "BHO," with the H standing for his middle initial, Hussein. Don't be alarmed about the addition of the middle initial: Edwards is "JRE," Clinton is "HRC," Romney is "WMR," Giuliani is "RWG."
Bonus: from the Hotline's Last Call: "My concern is not with myself but with the posteriors of those in the audience" -- Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID), on being given an extra 2 min. to speak at today's EPW hearing (Last Call! sources)."
Mark Penn's Latest Memo: Annotated
To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Re: State of Play Going Into the Debate
As predicted, a Mark Penn memo. The Clinton campaign is frustrated with journalists who've started to write Clinton's obit on the basis of a shaky debate performance.
What is the most important card in this race? The leadership card.
That is the card that we see in poll after poll that analyzes why people are voting for Hillary Clinton.
A little grammar issue here, but I'm one to talk! Anyway, we're back to the strength + experience = leadership equation, with change baked into the Democratic electorate as a precondition.
And so while opponents are strategizing and re-launching their campaigns with aggressive personal attacks on Sen. Clinton, one truth remains – running for president is not a qualification for president.
What qualifies as aggressive and personal?
The voters are looking for someone who has the strength and experience to lead, and little has changed in the last few weeks outside of the massive media coverage of the attacks.
Pollwise, true, but some polls have shown a narrowing of the gap between HRC and the rest. Still, she leads everywhere and nationally by significant margins.
As Senator Clinton has said, change is just a word unless you have the strength and experience to make it happen.
So let’s look at the ratings voters give the three leading candidates on the qualities they look for in a president.
On the questions of who is best able to handle Iraq and Iran, Hillary Clinton is the runaway leader. More than half of Democratic primary voters say Hillary can best handle Iran (52%) and Iraq (50%) – more than twice the number for Barack Obama (23% on Iraq and 22% on Iran) and John Edwards (14% on Iran and 16% on Iraq) (ABC/Washington Post Oct 29-Nov 1).
Senator Clinton also has an overwhelming lead among Democrats on being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency (76% for Clinton and 41% for Obama), having the strong leadership qualities needed to be president (72% for Clinton and 55% for Obama), being inspirational and an exciting choice for president (64% for Clinton and 56% for Obama), being a good commander in chief (63% for Clinton and 43% for Obama) and bringing real change to the direction of the country (63% for Clinton and 52% for Obama) (NBC/WSJ Nov 1-5).
Finally, as the polls come in, they show that Obama 2.0 isn't working any better than the previous version. After shifting to a negative attack strategy, Obama remains stalled.
But Clinton's position in New Hampshire seems a little shakier... and Obama holds leads on certain important attributes, like "Says what he believes" and "is honest."
HDNet -- Dan Rather's new home, will bring its HD cameras to Iowa on Dec. to broadcast the Black and Brown presidential forum live.
(No, Rather is not the host -- NPR's Michelle Norris and PBS's Ray Suarez have the honors.)
But -- HD!
Live coverage begins at 7:30 ET with a Dan Rather pre-game show.
All eight Dems will attend.
Beyond The Top Line: The CBS/NYT Poll Of Iowa And New Hampshire
I had some time to digest the New York Times / CBS News poll of Iowa and New Hampshire more fully. Here are some nuggets I found:
First, the Republicans:
## 50% of Huckabee supporters say their minds are made up, compared with only 33% of Romney supporters.
## Nearly 40% of likely Republican caucus goers say they are born-again Christians.
## Huckabee and Giuliani are tied for second choices overall; Huckabee's supporters would choose Romney, meaning that Huckabee's surge is coming at the expense of Romney being able to grow his lead.
## 20% of Huckabee supporters say they're voting for him because he is a conservative; only 7% of Romney voters have a similar view of their guy; Romney gets high marks for honesty and trustworthiness, and a full 10 percent of his support comes from folks who agree with his stances on immigration. Both Romney and Huckabee are given points for their honesty. Romney has the highest fav/unfavor ratio at 57/18, with Huckabee a close second at 50/7. Fully 43% of likely caucus goers don't know enough about Huckabee to evaluate him.
## A full 75% of likely GOP caucus goers say they'd be willing to vote for a candidate who is less conservative if they had a better chance to win the general election, but when that question is narrowed to social issues, only 49% say they'd be willing to hold their noses. 38% say Giuliani is the most electable, with Romney scored 30%.
## The poll notes that nearly 60% of likely Republican caucus goers want their nominee to be more conservative than G.W.B.
Day One In The Major League, And Huckabee Whiffs
To the roar of the crowd, ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee stepped up to the plate yesterday. A fast ball. Swing and a miss. Strike one.
Huckabee was asked to respond to the unflattering video of him "begging," in the words of the Romney campaign, the state legislature to raise taxes in 2003.
On Fox News, Huckabee said that he was following the will of the state Supreme Court, who had ordered the state government to pay more for education.
But the video clip in question showed Huckabee referring to a regular budget plan and had nothing to do with the state supreme court decision.
So -- about half of Huckabee's press coverage was positive -- Huckmentum -- and half of it was negative -- particularly the Fox News-Drudge-conservative blog half.
This wasn't an underhand pitch -- it wasn't a question about his weight loss, his guitar or his sense of humor -- it was about an issue that has the potential to trip him up.
Welcome to the big show.
Hugh Hewitt v. David O'Steen
Check out this exchange between Hugh Hewitt, defender-of-Mitt-Romney-in-extremis, and David O'Steen, the executive director of National Right To Life, over Fred Thompson and abortion.
HH: Well, that’s the same…David, David, this audience is very sophisticated. They don’t like double talk. He’s not where Huckabee is, he’s not where Romney is endorsing the amendment. What I’m trying to get to is why do you guys not care about that?
DO’S: Well, wait a minute, I didn’t want to talk about other candidates specifically.
HH: Well, come on.
DO’S: Look at the history of other candidates. I said he’s had a consistent pro-life position.
HH: Are you saying Huckabee’s not consistently pro-life?
DO’S: What did you say?
HH: Are you saying Huckabee’s not consistently pro-life?
DO’S: No, I’m not saying…I wasn’t talking about Huckabee. You were mentioning other candidates. I mean, you…
HH: But Huckabee is…
DO’S: Huckabee has been pro-life, yes. He’s pro-life.
HH: And he’s for the amendment. So why would you guys not go with him?
DO’S: Well, I’ll tell you, we’re also looking at what we view as electability.
HH: You don’t think Mike Huckabee is electable?
DO’S: Well, in the polls we’ve been watching, in the national polls, Fred Thompson has in the majority of them run second, Mike Huckabee hasn’t.
HH: David, have you been watching…David O’Steen is my guest from the National Right To Life Committee. Have you been watching the recent polls? Fred Thompson’s falling like a rock.
DO’S: Well, he’s running strong in South Carolina. The last national Real Clear Politics average I saw showed him running second to Rudy Giuliani.
HH: He’s got 6% in Iowa, and less than that, I think, in New Hampshire in the CBS poll released yesterday.
DO’S: But he’s running strong in Nevada and South Carolina. As I said, you know, everyone can look at polls, and the last Real Clear Politics average I saw, he was running second to Rudy Giuliani.
Who ISN'T Planting Questions These Days?
If planting questions is part of the Clinton ouevre, it's still surprising that a flood of questioners haven't outed themselves (although they might be embarassed).
The other YouTube clip, which appears to be from the same Salem event, features a young woman asking about Social Security. “Hi, my question is about Social Security reform, and I’m glad you mentioned it today. And, I’m asking because I feel like my generation has given up hope that we’re going to receive a Social Security check when we retire. So, with the current state. And I want to know, as president, what’s your specific plan to fix Social Security for my generation? Specifically, would you protect the Social Security trust fund, that’s running a surplus right now– but right now Congress can dip its hand into it and spend on other programs that has nothing to do with Social Security.” The YouTube clips, which were posted Wednesday night under the account meldoecase, include Clinton’s answers to both questions.
Sounds like a planted question, indeed.
But it probably wasn't a Clinton plant -- the question was probably crafted by one of the innumerable outside interest groups who are funding issue advocacy campaigns in the early primary and caucus states.
Divided We Fail, a project of the AARP, SEIU, NFIB and the Business Roundtable, aims to "engage the American people, businesses, non-profit organizations, and elected officials in finding bi-partisan solutions to ensure affordable, quality health care and long-term financial security – for all of us." Their supporters often ask candidates what seem to the human ear to be questions derived from a focus group. (What normal people use the phrase "financial security" when discussing retirement?)
Then there's Ed in 08, one of the two Bill Gates-funded groups operating this cycle. Ed stands for EDucation; Ed questioners (Eddies?) typically ask candidates for "specific answers" about how to "turn around" America's schools and lay out comprehensive K-12 reform proposals.
The ONE campaign is like the presidential motorcade of outside groups and is a full employment service for non-aligned political operatives. Arguably, it's the most effective of the bunch. Its questioners ask about poverty, AIDS and global health.
The League of Conservation Voters has "The Heat Is On," which vows to make global warming a priority issue for candidates.
Candidates are visiting early voting states in search of public support. This is our chance to place the issue of global warming before the candidates. Check out the Event Calendar to attend a candidate event near you
Then there are the 9/11 conspiratorialists, the Lyndon Larouchies, the anti-monetarists, the questions planted by rival candidates....
All of which is to say that it's impossible to participate in a totally pure town hall meeting where the agenda of the questioners and the wording of their questions are derived entirely from their own experiences.
A Biden Memo: The Real "Clear Contrast"
After he jump, a memo from the campaign of Joe "While Y'All Were Squabbling, I Was Solving The Crisis In Pakistan" Biden, on the morn of the next Democratic debate.
There's no polling data to back this up, but it would not surprise a good many Democrats if Biden, in the end, surges in Iowa at the end.
There are several reasons to explain why Sen. Hillary Clinton, in a press statement distributed narrowly, has come out firmly against the governments' giving driver's licenses to illegal immigrants -- or "undocumented persons."
First, it's possible she did not want to box in Gov. Eliot Spitzer. Now that he's killed his proposal, well, you can't rekill something that's dead.
Second, it's possible that she studied the issue as promised and discovered, on the same day the issue went away, that she was opposed to it.
It's true that she never explicitly said she favored the particularities of Spitzer's approach, only that she accepted his desire to do something in lieu of comprehensive immigration reform on a federal level.
From the standpoint of politics, Clinton has apparently decided that the lumps she'll take today -- that she massaged her position, changed her position -- a Chris Dodd spokesman called it "flipflopping cubed" -- are much less damaging the lumps she'd take in the general election if she did not set a marker of opposition. Even for Democrats, the politics of immigration are poisonous -- it could kill them among white working class men; among Midwesterners; comprehensive reform might be a second-term issue for the next Democratic president. The Democratic base is split; so are its presidential candidates.
During tomorrow night's debate, expect Clinton say something along the lines of: "I really didn't want to influence the debate in New York and make it more difficult for Gov. Spitzer, who is wrestling with a really difficult problem. But as a matter of principle, I don't personally believe that undocumented workers should be provided with driver's license."
But Clinton was yoked to Spitzer from the beginning owing largely to her own equivocation during the October 30th debate.
Bill Burton, Barack Obama's spokesman, couldn't resist: "When it takes two weeks and six different positions to answer one question on immigration, it’s easier to understand why the Clinton campaign would rather plant their questions than answer them."
The Five: An Eveningish Political Briefing
If people like this, I will start writing regularly... published around five... not meant to compete with either The Hotline's Last Call! (which is more comprehensive and funnier) or ABC's The Note, a prodigal son.
1. Tomorrow: the Dems debate in Las Vegas, all eyes on HRC's answers and Wolf Blitzer's toughness; Obama has two town hall meetings in Iowa before -- Ro. Gibbs: when does Obama prep??? The GOPers are in Feb. 5 mode: McCain's in California and Colorado; Romney's in California; Giuliani's in Florida; Huckabee's in Iowa and Tancredo's in NH. The Senate Judiciary Committee marks up the Rockefeller/Bush admin. FISA compromise tomorrow. Cue Chris Dodd. PS: Thursday's the deadline for Mass. residents to sign up for health insurance under the plan associated with Mitt Romney's gubernatorial tenure.
2. The cablers were all over Rudy/Kerik/Regan today; the campaign had no response; Rudy said little himself. John McCain fought with CNN over Rick Sanchez... come on, guys -- Rick Sanchez? Plus: mgr. Rick Davis sent a fundraising appeal... off of... Rick Sanchez.
3. Mike Huckabee's secret weapon? The media. This Matt Taibbi piece may not be as equanimous as one would like, but it gets at a central part of Huck's appeal.
4. A Romney adviser on reports of campaign infighting: "Zzzzzzzzz." But others say the divisions are real and are deeper than the campaign acknowledges. The Politico's Martin stands by his reporting, A side note: Both the Giuliani and McCain campaigns have also looked at proposed scripts that mention their opponents in a less than flattering light.
5. How to best understand the debate over strategy between the Giuliani and Romney campaigns? Think of the way historians separate themselves: some are lumpers and others are splitters.
The Lumpers: Giuliani bets that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts; that attributes matter more than issues; that each caucus or primary cannot be run without a national frame; that the delegate selection process is a cafeteria-style menu where all that really matters is the calories on the plate at the end.
The Splitters: Romney's campaign separates each part -- each caucus or primary, each issue, each part of the GOP base -- and aims to win it, master it, convert it discretely.
Self-Effacement, And A Message About The Caucus, From Hillary Clinton
(That's a New York Times style headline there -- the predicate before the subject, just in case you were wondering).
Bill Clinton doesn't like to exercise. ("Exercise is hard")
Tom Vilsack, the former governor, cannot dance. ("Dancing is hard")
Hillary Clinton cannot sing. ("Singing is hard")
But caucusing is easy.
That's the message of a new video the Clinton campaign is sending to its supporters in Iowa. It's self-effacing and light-in-tone -- and seeks to demystify the three-dimensional chess game of the caucus.
John Hunt, the chairman of the Clark County, NV Democratic Party, is a veteran. USAF retired. Last week, his son returned from a third tour of duty in the Middle East. "For me, the war is the quintessential issue of this campaign," he says.
And of the caucuses: more than even Iowa or New Hampshire, Nevada Dems are incredibly anti-war. The state has the third highest percentage of veterans in the country and a disproportionately high number of Iraq war dead.
This Thursday, Hunt will be the master of ceremonies at the biggest political event of the decade: a candidate debate on CNN and the state party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner fundraiser. 80% of those in the audience will be precinct chairs and captains. Clark County itself accounts for 75% of the statewide vote.
Just ten percent of likely Republican caucus goers in Iowa say they will make their decision based on a candidate's position on immigration reform, but twenty percent of those surveyed by the New York Times and CBS News spontaneously said "illegal immigration" was an issue they want to hear the candidates talk more about.
A majority of likely Republican caucus goers favor what's been labeled as amnesty: either allowing undocumented workers to keep jobs and become citizens or keep jobs and become guest workers. 44% believe that immigrants should leave their jobs and the country entirely.
Political developments today:
** Rudy Giuliani strikes back against Mitt Romney, saying that Romney had "the worst record on illegal immigrants" as governor and allowed a number of sanctuary cities to flourish. BTW: here are the leads from Iowa television stations about Romney.
"Mitt Romney is calling out two of his republican rivals and hilary clinton on illegal immigration (Des Moines)"
"Mitt Romney is on the attack. He's singling out to of his gop rivals and hillary clinton on illegal immigration. (Des Moines)"
"The Republican front runner in Iowa... Mitt Romney... Says other candidates are too soft on
illegal immigration. (Cedar Rapids)"
"Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has a new campaign office on indian hills drive. While in town... He took aim at two of his g-o-p opponents. (Sioux City)"
** Romney's campaign issued a rebuttal about Romney's record, leading with this:
"A RECORD OF ENFORCING OUR IMMIGRATION LAWS
In Massachusetts, Governor Mitt Romney Took Action To Enforce Immigration Laws:
ENFORCEMENT: In December 2006, Governor Romney Signed A Memorandum Of Agreement With The Federal Government To Allow State Law Enforcement To Enforce Federal Immigration Laws. "
** Giuliani unveiled "Viva Rudy," a coalition of Hispanic American Republicans in Florida.
** For the first time, Mike Huckabee's rocky relationship with the Arkansas Journal gets national press attention.
Kind of surprising: given how important the immigration issue to Mitt Romney's chances in Iowa, you'd think that he, and not challenger Mike Huckabee, would be the first to force a debate... and get personal.
"I think Mitt Romney would rather keep people out of college so they can keep working on his lawn," said Huckabee while appearing on the Fox News Channel.
Huckabee's shot at Romney came when the former Arkansas governor was asked about criticism he has received from Romney for backing an unsuccessful proposal in Arkansas to offer college scholarships to the children of illegal immigrants.
Dissent v. Debate In Romneyland
Jonathan Martin of the Politico reports this morning about an internal dispute between two members of Mitt Romney's television ad team. One side, led by McCain campaign exile Stu Stevens, worries about "going negative." The other, led by cornerman Alex Castellanos, is worried that Giuliani's negatives need to be exploited AND SOONish.
As Martin notes, such strategic disagreements are common.
Aides to Romney don't deny that different advisers have different thoughts about important decisions. And kudos to Romney campaign manager Beth Myers for speaking candidly about Romney's preference for health internal debates.
Still, advisers believe that Martin's story is sensationalized. An aide compared the disagreement to quibbles among editors about what to put on the front page of a newspaper.
But rarely do the minutes of those page 1 meetings leak!
Romney's campaign has been extraorindarily disciplined about keeping in-house disputes buttoned up. Usually, such discipline breaks down when one faction has no other recourse but to pressure the other in public.
In this case, some Romney advisers want the campaign to take on Rudy Giuliani more clearly; Romney himself and his inner inner circle -- which does not include Alex Castellanos -- have balked. Clearly, some Romney advisers believe that Giuliani's invincibility needs to be tested.
The Giuliani Ad Buy: Huge -- Or, as New Yorkers Say -- "Yooge"
Rudy Giuliani's first television ad is boosting the bottom lines of some Northeastern television stations quite handsomely.
The ad will start airing tomorrow and will air on network TV stations in Boston and on WMUR in Manchester.
The cost: $314,000 -- which means that the Giuliani ad will saturate the airwaves over the next five days.
Rudy Giuliani Airs First Ad
On a day when Mitt Romney's campaign debates whether to run contrast ads against Rudy Giuliani, Giuliani is just...running.
His first television ad, entitled "Tested," airs in New Hampshire beginning this morning.
This is how a spokesperson describes the content:
The ad shows Rudy's authenticity as he talks directly to the camera about turning around New York City. It's Rudy as Rudy - talking candidly about his experience leading one of the largest governments in the country.
Will Giuliani's first and in, say, South Carolina be as New York-centric?
November 13, 2007
The Rest Of The Stories, 11/13
Not just because I promised Jake Tapper I'd link to him: he writes today about Fred Thompson and abortion.
Despite having deputized less than two dozen state police officers in the last part of the final year of his gubernatorial tenure, despite having not communicated his concerns about sanctuary cities to en flagrante mayors like Joe Curtatone in Somerville, Mass, Mitt Romney accuses his opponents of being in a "sanctuary" state of mind. And hey -- it's working for him.
Ezra Klein likes John Edwards's dramatization of the inequities in the health care system.
CBS, New York Times Polls Of Iowa And New Hampshire
Likely voters, surveyed this weekend -- so, after the Philadelphia debate. (From the poll: "The error due to sampling could be 4 points for Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, 5 points for Iowa Republican caucus-goers, and likely New Hampshire Democratic voters, and 6 points for likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.)
A few items from some of the other questions:
## Republicans in Iowa believe that Rudy Giuliani is the most electable candidate. But they're not voting for him.
## Mike Huckabee's voters are more likely to have made up their minds than Mitt Romney voters.
## More Hillary Clinton voters are unsure of their choices than Obama or Edwards voters
Who's Behind The Negative Messaging In Iowa?
Someone's doing dirty work in Iowa: message-testing phone calls against John Edwards and Hillary Clinton...
Why do you think Hillary Clinton is a weak candidate and gives 3 choices. A) Is a weak general election candidate. B)Is too dependent on lobbyist money. C) Won't bring change.
Then why do do think John Edwards is a weak candidate with 2 choices A) a weak general election candidate because his positions are too liberal B) He should be home with his wife who has cancer.
Who might the suspect be?
First, don't be so quick to blame (or credit) Barack Obama's campaign.
Campaign often test negative messages against themselves -- they want to poll their negatives.
Come to think of it, the "negatives" cited by the telephone poll-taker are the Edwards campaign version of HRC's negatives, not the Obama campaign's version of negatives. (An Edwards campaign spokesman chastizes me for the speculation and absolutely denies that the campaign has anything to do with the calls). Or maybe Hillary Clinton might want to test the effectiveness of John Edwards's messaging. Both Clinton's campaign spokesman, Phil Singer, and Obama's spokesman, Bill Burton, said their respective campaigns had nothing to do with the calls either.
"Central Research" is the name of the phone farm.
No disbursements have been paid to a firm of that name this cycle or last cycle, so "Central Research" -- a real company based in Arkansas -- is in itself, sort of a front for a front for the guilty campaign.
Here's how it works:
A campaign pays a consulting firm X amount of dollars. It's required to divulge the payment. The consulting firm, in turn, pays Central Research 1/X dollars. Since the consulting firm is a private business, it doesn't have to disclose much about its contracts.
BTW: This might not technically push-polling. Push-polls aren't polls -- they're widely distributed pseudo-polls that are only used to spread negative messages. If these calls turn out to be widely distribured --if, say, 50,000 caucus goers received them -- then, perhaps, they're push-polls. But if only 500 received them, then you're probably looking at a message-testing poll.
But real push polls are rare -- the volume required to sufficiently spread a negative message is beyond the capacity of most campaigns.
The Michigan Conundrum
Michigan still doesn't have a primary date after a judge struck it down on a technicality involving access to voter lists.
If new legislation fails, the Democrats could hold a caucus on Jan. 15 (or even on the day that Sec/State Bill Gardner sets for New Hampshire primary), and Republicans will hold a convention.
Caucuses, more than primaries, depend on candidate participation. John Edwards and Barack Obama won't play.
Oh -- the state legislature is trying to put Obama and Edwards's names back on the ballot.
If that happens, the Obama and Edwards campaigns will sue to get off the ballot.
Here's an argument for holding a caucus on Feb. 9:
Barack Obama has enough money, enough of a campaign argument, and enough confidence, no matter what, to stay in the race through Feb. 5
The race might be over by Feb. 5. Or a Feb. 9 caucus in Michigan could be a huge, hairy deal --potentially decisive, even.
As you know, Plouffe’s memo isn’t correct. Our state director didn’t go to Iowa. But more so, we have replaced our state director in Nevada, added two dozen field organizers, and two new senior staff members.
The Edwards Ad: Unconstitutional Or Uncomfortable
John Edwards:
But if you don’t pass universal health care by July of 2009, in six months, I’m going to use my power as president to take your health care away from you
But -- is Edwards saying he would deprive the children of legislators of health care if their parents couldn't agree? That sword of Damocles doesn't seem very Iowa friendly...
Most Important Nevada Endorsement: After Thanksgiving
Yesterday, the Culinary Workers Local 226 came to a tentative agreement with the industrial laundry companies in Las Vegas. That means that virtually all of the union's oustanding contracts have been settled, save for the Tropicana.
(As Jon Ralston, the dean of the political press corps in Nevada, wrote, "There goes the picket line photo op for the presidential contenders..... They will have to settle for standard sucking up to the Culinary this week.")
So now Local 226, which represents 60,000 workers in Clark County, where 75% of caucus delegate will be selected, can turn its attention to a presidential endorsement.
The debate on Thursday night and the Jefferson-Jackson dinner afterwards will matter.
Union sources say that Local 226 will hand down its endorsement after Thanksgiving.
Annotating The Latest Plouffe Memo
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: David Plouffe
RE: Obama Gains Strength at Critical Time
DATE: November 13, 2007
In recent weeks, we have seen an important shift in the campaign, and fifty-one days before the Iowa caucus, Barack Obama is strengthening his position in the Democratic presidential nominating race, while other candidates are stagnating or weakening. Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are beginning to focus on the race more intently and are increasingly making decisions. And as they do, Senator Obama is profiting at Senator Clinton’s expense.
No hard evidence of this yet in Iowa; some evidence for it in New Hampshire.
Even in Nevada and South Carolina, where the electorates are not as broadly engaged, the race is moving in a positive direction for Barack Obama’s campaign.
Let's see the polling.
Obama received an important boost at the Iowa Jefferson Jackson Day Dinner on Saturday night where his organization outperformed all of the other candidates, and his speech was the best received by the audience and important caucus observers like the Des Moines Register’s David Yepsen.
True, though many in the audience had left by the time Obama began to speak.
The decisive factor for the majority of voters in the 2008 primary season will be determining which candidate can really deliver change they can believe in.
That is the claim of the Obama team,yes, but we really won't know until Iowa whether it's true or not.
Barack Obama believes that to bring about fundamental change three things have to be accomplished. First, the next President must have the ability to unify the country, bringing Republicans and Independents together with Democrats to solve the nation’s most pressing problems. Obama has a track record and approach suited to this challenge while Senator Clinton is likely to unite the GOP against her candidacy as well as her Presidency. And Senator Edwards does not show an inclination toward unity, suggesting compromise is a dirty word.
The Edwards swipe aside, this is what Obama believes.
Second, the influence of lobbyists and special interests, who control too much of the agenda in Washington, must be reduced and the voices of the American people must be heard again. Barack Obama has a history of taking on the special interests and winning. He has a track record of leading the way on reform and disclosure. Barack Obama will be beholden to no one but the American people when he wins. Senator Clinton embraces the current system in Washington and is the anointed candidate of Washington, raising more money from PACs and Washington lobbyists than any candidate in either party. Hillary Clinton continually chooses secrecy over disclosure, refusing to expedite the release of documents detailing her record as First Lady, refusing to release tax returns and refusing to release her earmarks request from this year.
A poke in Obama's direction vis-a-vis his Senate records here might be appropriate, but then his campaign would accuse me of practicing the politics of cynicism.
While Senator Edwards does not accept PAC or Washington lobbyist money either, his record on reform issues while in the United States Senate demonstrated it was not one of his priorities. Opening up and reforming government has been a primary cause in Obama’s life, not just a convenient set of issues in a political campaign.
If and when Edwards and Obama engage, you'll see a lot of charges along these lines.
Third, to bring about real change we need a president who will tell the American people not just what they want to hear, but what they need to hear. People may not always agree with Obama’s views, but they will be clear where he stands and why.
Senator Clinton has been ducking and dodging tough questions at rapid pace lately, evading clear answers on driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants, Social Security’s future and diplomacy with Iran. And according to reports out of Iowa, her staff has planted favorable questions to ensure that she is not asked and does not have to answer the tough questions from people in Iowa.
CF: Meet the Press, where Sen. Obama did not give terribly clear answers to some of these same questions. But Obama hasn't planted questions.
Don't Sweat The Process Stories. (It's All The Process Stories)
Here's my take on Plant-gate:
In Newton, Iowa last week, at a town hall meeting after Sen. Clinton rolled out her global warming policy, an aide approached a member of the audience and suggested that she ask Clinton a question about global warming. The staffer, being helpful, provided the suggested text. Clinton called on the audience member during her Q and A, was asked the question, and gave a standard response.
During the past six months, Clinton has probably been asked (more than) a 1,000 questions by different Democratic voters. Two of them are known to have been planted. And with a half a week of harsh, local press coverage, exactly zero others have stepped forward to say that they, too, were similarly coached.
But even if 18 more come forward – 20 out of 1,000, say, 98% of the questions posed to Clinton were legitimate and authentic.
All of this is to say that the staff member's gambit was probably not part of a grand strategy that’s existed since the start of the campaign. If it was, that strategy failed miserably!
Clinton advisers and aides have acknowledged that one of the nagging problems Clinton faces in Iowa is that the local coverage of her visits often depart from the reasons behind her visits.
The Clinton campaign won’t comment about such things, but it’s reasonable to assume that word filtered down to aides that, as much as possible, events needed to be more tightly controlled to forestall the unforeseen. It's also unlikely that those instructions included a command to plant questions.
Trust your candidate, Roger Simon advises. It is among the fundamental lessons that senior staff members must learn. They see their task as controlling the environment around the candidate, controlling what the candidate says, controlling what the candidate wears, controlling the media, controlling the crowds, controlling the questions. Often, that control leads to the opposite: it produces an environment so artificial that the mischievous imp of the unforeseen pops up and wiggles his tongue.
The last thing Clinton needed last week – a week where her credibility was challenged -- was the suggestion that even some of her senior staffers do not trust her to answer questions.
November 12, 2007
Rumor And Truth
Rumor: Roger Stone, the legendary Republican operative skilled in the dark arts of politics, was somehow involved with the Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, that 501 (c) 4 that ran pro-McCain ads in South Carolina.
Fact: Stone, in a telephone interview today, completely denies that he had anything at all to do it... and doesn't seem to be a big fan of McCain's to begin with.
Rumor: Despite the denials, James Dobson is on the verge of endorsing Mike Huckabee.
Truth: This column was among the lucky few who heard the original rumor on Friday, but, because it could not get an independent source, did not go with the story. Tom Minnery, Dobson's chief political aide, reinforced the denial today with me. And on his radio show this morning, Dobson said he was nowhere near endorsing anyone.
The Best Take On Whether HRC's Margins Are Shrinling
It's hard to say, but the maestros of polling, Mark Blumenthal and Prof. Charles Franklin, are beginning to sense something. In New Hampshire. Maybe.
The story "red" tells is that Clinton had a very good third quarter-- good news about her campaign, it's strength, and her good debate performances-- helped raise her New Hampshire standing by five points. Perhaps the same news, or reviews of his failure to make progress, helped sink Obama's support about 4 points during the same third quarter. But since October 1, these patters have changed, with Clinton seeing no further gains and Obama returning to the mid-20s.
Here are Franklin's graphs -- see the "red."
Maybe reality doesn't matter.
ABC's Charlie Gibson was more sure tonight: "Her margin is shrinking."
Perception will drive her numbers down -- and drive her opponents' momentum -- more than reality.
So -- when do we get the next Mark Penn memo explaining why HRC's poll numbers are steady?
They switched on the lights in the bar at the Hotel Fort Des Moines at 2:00 a.m. Sunday, and a crowd of two dozen buoyant young field organizers for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) spilled out onto the sidewalk, some jostling past Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman, Terry McAuliffe, who had paused for a moment just inside the hotel's glass doors.
The organizers were men and women in their 20s, and all dressed
identically: jeans and red T-shirts with Obama's logo and his call to arms, "Fire it up."
When a man on the edge of the group yelled the slogan, they answered with the response they'd been chanting all night: "Ready to go."
"Fire it up!" the rumpled, older man yelled again.
"Ready to go!" the crowd shouted back again. "Fire it up!" he called.
"Ready to go!"
"Let's kick her ass," the cheerleader finally called out, and the crowd roared.
The cheerleader — Joe Trippi, chief adviser to Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Obama's rival John Edwards, new-politics guru, and all-around mischief maker — glanced gleefully over at McAuliffe.
When Edwards says he'll stand up to insurance- companylobbyists and deliver universal health care, he may or may not be right. But it's hard to doubt his conviction that it can be done
"Every time Obama takes off the gloves, he immediately feels compelled to lace them up again"
Dan Balz, quoting Iowa Democratic Party political director Norm Sterzenbach in the Post:
But Sterzenbach said college students could play an even more significant role this time because they will be spread more evenly around the state, rather than being on campus. "Everybody talks about college students are going to be disenfranchised and they're not going to be allowed to participate," he said. "It's actually going to be the exact opposite. College students can have a significantly higher impact now--by voting at home rather than on campus."
Why The NRLC Endorsement Is Not Terrible For Mitt Romney
It's great for Thompson -- but it's not all that bad for Mitt Romney. Consider:
(1) Mike Huckabee didn't get it. And Romney's campaign sees Huckabee as a bigger threat in Iowa right now than Fred Thompson.
(2) Because Thompson is going to have to answer a lot of abortion questions over the next few days -- and Thompson is not comfortable answering questions about abortion. And Mitt Romney is getting more comfortable.
I initially wrote it was "good" for Romney. But it's not good. It's just not that bad.
The Big Picture: Democrats
Our internal air traffic controller is asking me to climb and maintain 30,000 feet for a while in order to see how different the ground looks from the last time I was up that high.
(1) The campaign is in 24/7 mode. Mistakes are magnified; compelling performances are magnified; there is very little room for errors of ommission or commission.
(2) For the first time since the cycle began, the press and Barack Obama and John Edwards all followed the same line of argument against Hillary Clinton, and her campaign was clearly knocked off balance for a while. Clinton's position on issues didn't do this to her -- just listen to Barack Obama's Meet the Press performance if you'd like to be less clear about how and where he differs from her -- it's how she responded, in real time, to events.
(3) Barack Obama's speech at Saturday night's Jefferson-Jackson dinner was the best I've ever seen him give. His interview with Tim Russert the next morning was one of the worst I've seen him give. The former matters much more than the latter.
(4) John Edwards's campaign has been holding its breath for months and his standing in Iowa hasn't declined all that much. He's back on the air now with expensive, crafty and risky new commercials. His JJ speech was the second-best of the night. His Iowa organization is still the best. The news media is writing plenty of "Edwards Surging?" stories.
(5) Barack Obama has the money, the talent, and the ego to continue campaigning for president if he loses Iowa and New Hampshire. John Edwards might not.
Thinking About NRLC's Endorsement Of Thompson
Why did the National Right To Life committee and NRLC PAC decide to endorse Fred Thompson? We won't know until tomorrow's press conference, but here are some theories
(1) His record in the Senate. It's strong and solidly pro-life. Rebuttal: But other candidates -- John McCain, Duncan Hunter, have better records. ... And Thompson was just as much of a force behind McCain-Feingold as McCain... and he lobbied on behalf of pro-choice causes in the early 1990s...
(2) Political calculation -- Duncan Hunter can't win; Mike Huckabee is too independent and allegedly alienates fiscal conservatives; Mitt Romney is going to be beaten and the abortion policies of his Mass. health care plan are a problem; Thompson will win in the South. Thompson will owe the NRLC. Rebuttal: The NRLC isn't generally like that; more than almost any interest group, it's faithfully represented the interests of its 3000 chapters and hundreds of thousands of members. And so far as political calculations go, Thompson's standing in early state polls has been declining.
(3) Huckabee hatred: the one person in the race who doesn't have to pander to pro-life activists has aroused the ire of the Beltway establishment. Rebuttal: again, the NRLC prizes itself on its independence.
(4) They forgot McCain-Feingold: Remember, NRLC and its affiliates are as responsible as anyone for the fight against the issue ad provisions of BCRA. Thompson has backed away from his support of those provisions, but his support of the thrust and principles behind McCain-Feingold is undeniable. Rebuttal: ??
The right-to-life community has no favorite candidate at this point; Washington insiders favor Thompson; some of the key state activists favor Romney (who was effectively pro-choice until three years ago); many shy away from Huckabee (the most pure of the bunch) because he would alienate other parts of the conservative coalition; John McCain’s campaign finance heresy was too painful to ignore.
Some may see the above as signs of confusion, but it’s really a sign of a mature political movement, comfortable in its own diversity.
On the Huckabee Tax Video
It's not so much whether the context is right or whether Huckabee is or isn't a solid fiscal conservative -- it's about whether this video is used by an opponent in a television ad and whether the Iowa media, at some point in December, runs the clip over-and-over.
The Giuliani Strategy Encapsulated
Rudy Giuliani's campaign manager, Michael DuHaime, held a long conference call with reporters today -- read the full transcript after the jump -- but here's what he wanted to convey, in a single sentence:
"I think what we see is there's a possibility of two paths. And obviously, we agree that there's the ability for the momentum that comes out of early states, or we wouldn't be as focused as we are on some of the early states."
"But we also recognize that, with so many large delegate-rich states moving up to so early in the process, that it's impossible to think that it will be over after only three states vote."
Former President Clinton said Monday his wife can handle the criticism from her presidential rivals even though ''those boys have been getting tough on her lately.''
You can hear the signs from Fairfax Drive....
Memo Wars: McCain's Manager Is Confident
An internal memo sent from McCain campaign manager Rick Davis to campaign donors and political surrogates:
On Fox News Sunday yesterday, John McCain told Chris Wallace, "I can tell you right now I will win New Hampshire." As a candidate, John McCain is confident, he is focused, and he is performing exceptionally well on the campaign trail.
He has good reason to be excited. John McCain is the most qualified and experienced candidate in this race. At a time when our nation fights a global war against Islamic extremists, he is the only candidate in the top tier of the Republican field with real foreign policy experience. Whether as a member of the Navy, House of Representatives, or Senate, John McCain has been involved in nearly every foreign policy crisis to face our country since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Reflective of that experience, he was the only person in the field of Presidential candidates to recognize the need for a new strategy in Iraq four years ago, and he had the courage to advocate for the surge even when it hurt him politically.
Not only is he the right man at the right time to lead our nation, a new poll released yesterday confirms once again that he is the only Republican who can beat Hillary Clinton. According to a survey released Sunday by Rasmussen Reports, John McCain leads Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election match up 47% to 45%. He is the only Republican leading the Democrat front-runner. Rudy Giuliani would lose to Hillary Clinton by six points, as would Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. Click here to read the full report.
As Senator Sam Brownback said last week when he endorsed John McCain, "John McCain is the full package and he can beat Hillary Clinton; he has a 24-year pro-life voting record and the guy is clearly ready to be commander in chief. He's done it all and I think he deserves my support and the support of the country."
Other public survey data indicates Republican primary voters believe Mayor Giuliani is more likely to defeat Senator Clinton in a general election match-up, but this isn't supported in the most current surveys. The Rasmussen poll reports that John McCain is the only candidate who beats Senator Clinton in the general election. The Republican Party would be more likely to win back the White House if John McCain is nominated. John McCain, the candidate with experience, the candidate ready to be commander in chief, the candidate who shares the values of the Republican Party, is the candidate best positioned to beat Hillary Clinton.
In addition to his national lead, John McCain also performs better in head to head matchups against Hillary Clinton than the rest of the Republican field. In state by state polling, John McCain wins the key states needed for a Republican victory against Hillary Clinton - including Virginia, Ohio, and Kentucky - while Mayor Giuliani would lose those states. Click here to see the current map.
We need your help and your continued financial support today to spread this message. If you have not yet contributed the maximum of $2,300 to John's campaign, please help us today with another contribution here. If you have, thank you for your strong support. We need your additional assistance forwarding this email along to your contacts and asking them to contribute as well. John McCain is making it happen on the campaign trail; let's help him keep it going so he can have the chance to defeat Hillary Clinton next November.
Thompson's voting record is pretty much down-the-line pro-life, but NRLC has apparently overlooked his support of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance legislation, which NRLC went to court to fight. Also, in the early 1990s, Thompson has admitted helping lobbying for a pro-choice group.
In October, Thompson addressed the NRLC's presidential forum via satellite.
The NRLC's co-executive director, Darla St. Martin., is close with Thompson's wife/campaign adviser Jeri Kehn Thompson, but it's unclear, of course, whether the friendship played any role in the announcement.
In 2000, NRLC waited until Feb. 9 to endorse George W. Bush over John McCain.
Mayor Giuliani’s “momentum-proof” national polling lead, Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny all walk into a bar…
You’re right. None of them exist.
Why the “frontrunner” label and fifty cents won’t even get you a cup of coffee nowadays:
That's from Mitt Romney's spokesman, Kevin Madden, who is getting a darned bit tired hearing Rudy Giuliani make the electability argument.
Mayor Giuliani continues to hang his hat on national polls that show him garnering around 30 percent support, yet fully 100 percent of the electorate knows who he is. That is a very big gulf to have between the number of voters that know him and the number that actually support him.
National poll samples are largely a reflection of name awareness at this point in the campaign. The polls taken of voters in the early primary states reflect the opinions of voters who are the most engaged and most informed about the candidates. For Mayor Giuliani to have 100 percent of Iowa voters know who he is, yet only around 11 percent of those voters support him...that's a major problem for his candidacy.
The latest polls out in New Hampshire, Florida and South Carolina show that Governor Romney is perfectly positioned to be competitive in the early election contests.
Thompson Extends His Advertising Buy In South Carolina
Here are details of Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson's advertising buy in South Carolina.
It's the largest single expense of his campaign so far.
His 60-second biographical ad will air in Charleston, Columbia, Florence, and Greenville beginning today ... and lasting through next Monday.
The total cost, according to a GOP media buyer: $230,105.
Thompson is in SC tomorrow for a speech at the Citadel and retail politicking in Myrtle Beach.
Two Views Of McCain's Viability: Part II
An internal memo from McCain's national political director, Mike Dennehy:
We also received some very good news from The Boston Globe poll that was released today. Andy Smith, of the UNH Survey Center, conducted the poll and he was quoted as saying the race is “still really open”. While the ballot indicates that Romney has 32, Rudy 20 and John 17, it doesn’t discuss the important numbers inside the numbers..
Of significance, only 16% of those sampled have “definitely decided” who they are voting for in the Primary. And of those 16%, the race is a dead heat with Romney at 29%, John at 24% and Rudy at 24%. However, the best news of the entire poll for our campaign in New Hampshire, is that since Andy Smith’s last poll at the end of September, John has increased his “definitely decided” from 10% to 24% – a 240% gain. Romney has only increased 4 points and Rudy only 3. This further illustrates the momentum that John has in New Hampshire and is a sign of good news to come. It also proves what we have known all along – when John McCain meets voters, looks them in the eye, and gives them “straight talk”, they are boarding
the bus for good!
More:
Also, we are excited to announce the first-of-its kind, for the First-in-the-Nation, New Hampshire specific media team for the campaign. The team includes Jim Burke, of Burke Advertising in Merrimack, Sean Owen, of wedu in Manchester, and Paul Young, of Calypso Communications in Portsmouth. The New Hampshire media team will develop campaign ads and ask supporters and voters to choose the one they like best through grassroots activities and through the website: www.VoteMcCainAd.com.
Over the coming weeks, the three individuals will create their own ads and unveil them at house parties, campaign leadership meetings, and via the Internet. Each ad will be voted on and the ad that wins the largest amount of votes will be aired in New Hampshire shortly after it is chosen.
Thank you for your hard work. While our success starts at the top with John McCain, we all know that our campaign volunteers are the ones on the front lines doing the hard work and delivering our message for John to people he can’t reach himself.
Stay tuned and get ready for the real fun to begin!
National Right To Life Will Endorse Tomorrow
National Right To Life, the most important and influential anti-abortion group in the country, will endorse a presidential candidate tomorrow morning in a press conference at the group's DC headquarters.
Two Views Of McCain's Viability: Part One
Is Rudy Giuliani feeling the hot breath of Sen. John McCain on his neck? Maybe not.
Giuliani's supporters are circulating a memo contending that the resurgence McCain has seen in the national polls is illusory -- a result of Fred Thompson's having faded since his announcement and Mitt Romney's having spent $52M and stayed at roughly 11%. Meanwhile, the memo argues, Giuliani continues to tick up, everywhere.
The memo was obtained from a Republican supporter of Giuliani's.
It notes that McCain has not enjoyed a lead since the beginning of the year, that his standing in New Hampshire hasn't really improved and that he's barely afloat in Iowa. Also: "Senator McCain has not received 20% of the ballot share in a single public South Carolina survey since July."
Despite a recent television and direct mail campaign, polling data suggests Senator McCain has little chance of winning or even placing in the top 2 in an early primary or caucus state. He has not led in any state polling outside of Arizona since June
And on Feb. 5?
21 states will hold their GOP primary on February 5. The estimated total delegates available on February 5th are 1,274. The most recent polling indicates that Senator McCain has only a narrow advantage in one state, his home state of Arizona
November 10, 2007
At JJ, It's Probably Going To Be Obama's Night, Crowdwise
The only cheers you can hear on television are: "Ready to Go. Fired Up" -- the Obama fight mantra. And occasionally -- "O-Ba-Ma." (Ok, and occasionally: "Kucinich! Kucinich!"
HRC's JJ Theme
As the world ponders the propriety of a political director planting questions at HRC's public events in Iowa, ponder, for a moment, the theme I'm told she'll introduce at tonight's Jefferson Jackson dinner in Des Moines.
"Turn up the heat." And "Turn around America.'
On an unrelated note, here's a post by ABC News's Jake Tapper on a subject Jake probably never thought he would write about; Mitt Romney and nudity.
November 9, 2007
What A Bizarre Day For John McCain
(1) He decides to attack Rudy Giuliani in a fairly personal way considering that McCain happens to be Giuliani's close friend and the two have largely eschewed personal attacks.
(1.5) -- The Giuliani campaign brings up McCain's participation in the Keating 5 scandal by way of rebuttal.
(2) McCain's campaign manager sends out a very aggressive statement reinforcing McCain's point about Bernie Kerik, loyalty and judgment.
“Rudy Giuliani’s history with Bernie Kerik is a story of poor judgment. After being briefed on Kerik’s ties to organized crime, Giuliani named him chief of the New York Police Department. Without any further vetting, Giuliani asked him to join his security consulting firm. Despite obvious ethical problems, Giuliani went so far as to personally recommend Kerik for the top job at the Department of Homeland Security. A president’s judgment matters and Rudy Giuliani has repeatedly placed personal loyalty over regard for the facts.”
(3) The AP drops a story confirming this column's reporting about a $3M loan McCain is finalizing to help his campaign... and adds a doozy of twist: an outside group led by former McCain media consultant Rick Reed is running ads on McCain's behalf in South Carolina.
(4) The Giuliani campaign, suitably pissed off, issues a statement from Katie Levinson:
“Is this what desperation looks like? Bernie Kerik’s issues have been known since 2004 and John McCain still had glowing things to say about Rudy Giuliani and his leadership. What, exactly, changed today? Best as I can tell, it’s just John McCain’s pure desperation in the face of a failing and flailing campaign trumping his so-called straight talk. It is truly a shame that John McCain has chosen to stoop this low.”
And another:
Let me get this straight – first, campaign finance crusader John McCain oversees a campaign that spiraled completely out of control and went bankrupt and now he wants a questionable $3 million loan? Doesn’t quite pass the smell test, does it? Americans need someone in the White House who knows how to balance their own checkbook before they try to balance the federal government’s. They don’t need John McCain, they need Rudy Giuliani - who has actually balanced a budget and made a payroll.”
(5) McCain's mother does some Mormon-bashing in New Hampshire.
''As far as the Salt Lake City thing, he's a Mormon and the Mormons of Salt Lake City had caused that scandal. And to clean that up, again, it's not a subject,'' Roberta McCain said.
JohnMcCain quickly stepped in: ''The views of my mothers are not necessarily the views of mine.' ''Well, that's my view and you asked me,'' Roberta answered.
(6) McCain issues a statement denouncing third party ads.
"I have always fought for full disclosure of all money spent in federal elections and I have opposed the expenditure of soft money by independent groups trying to influence federal elections. This remains my position and I condemn such spending in this election. To me, the question is not if it's legal but if it's really the best way to conduct a campaign. If anyone considering an outside expenditure thinks they are benefiting me I would prefer they do not air the ads. If there are ads up I believe they should come down."
(7) Jennifer Rubin reminds us that politics ain't beanbag...
but it ain't supposed to be fragmentation bombing either.
Who's The Special Clinton Guest Star At J-J?
It's not Sheryl Crow ... though that was Thursday's rumor...
It's not the Goo Goo Dolls ... though that was Friday's rumor...
So who's headlining Hillary Clinton's Jefferson Jackson rally?
It's Terry McAulliffe... the campaign chairman, not the fantastic-singer-you've-never-heard-of-who-just-happens-to-be-named-Terry-McAullife.
The Last Romney Fundraiser in DC -- November 12?
According to an invitation obtained by this column, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney will hold his final Washington, D.C. fundraiser on November 12. Now -- why is that possibly news? Even for a blog as obsessed with internal minutia as this one...
Well, here's the thing. If Romney is doing no more fundraisers in DC, it means that he is probably ramping down his fundraisers everywhere to devote more time to the campaign trail.
That's also a normal thing to do.
But November 12 is a little bit early to hold a "final" DC fundraiser.
So maybe -- just maybe -- the earlyness of this late fundraiser is an indication that Romney would be willing to write himself another multi-million dollar check -- or maybe THE ultimate $20M check that Rudy Giuliani's finance team always frets about.
Here's an e-mail Romney fundraiser/DC lawyer Charlie Spies sent to some friends:
This coming Monday (Nov. 12th) there will be a reception with Gov. Romney in DC (Bob Pence's house in Georgetown Harbor) that is a great opportunity to personally meet and support Mitt at a reception.
With a little over 50 days until the Iowa Caucuses I hope you will consider attending this event. Mitt has momentum and is now in a strong position in all the early
