A Brief Look At The Post-ABC Poll

Being among the first to notice that Hillary Clinton regularly broke the 50% barrier in Democratic primary polls, there's a responsibility to point out when that barrier reseals. In the Post-ABC poll published 9/30, Barack Obama had 20 percent of the net leaned vote; he has 26 percent in the poll ending 11/1. Clinton inched down from 53 to 49. That's a net change of ... well, enough to take notice of and to see whether other polls pick it up.

Still, 81% of Democrats are satisfied with their field; 57% of Clinton supporters are "strongly" in favor of her. 50% of Obama's supporters are strongly in favor of him.

In the late September poll, 35% found Clinton to be the most honest and trustworthy; 34% do now; Obama's numbers in the field ticked up from 26 to 29.

Among the Republicans, the biggest gainer -- actually, the only gain outside the margin of error -- is John McCain, who has 19 percent of the net leaned vote, up from 12 on 9/30.
Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney are stagnant; Mike Huckabee holds steady at 5%.

Newsweek's latest shows a race relatively unchanged from last month.

BTW: Here's Obama on SNL... and kudos to NBC and the Obama campaign for keeping this quiet. Shades of Monday Night Football circa December '06...

Comments

Thanks for pointing out that Obama moved up a bit and HIllary went down a bit. The rest of you media colleauges are burying the story...ABC's lead on the poll on their website is "America on the wrong track" not the rising numbers of McCain and to a lesser extent Obama. I think that's called burying the lead, if I am not mistaken.

Posted by RKA | November 4, 2007 3:51 PM

Marc, until this post you had been hedging in recent weeks, after a summer of really spot-on analysis. Welcome back to your instincts.

Posted by Ana | November 4, 2007 6:19 PM

Clinton only hit 50+ a few times. Your piece illuminates how one cherry-picks ones facts to fit the chosen narrative.
Obama's negatives went up as many points as his polling numbers, both right around the margin of error.
If you wanted to create an, "Obama is making progress", narrative, you would choose the statistics that you did and frame them in that context'
You could just as easily pointed out that less than 20% feel that Obama is a strong leader, IN THE SAME POLL, and that EVERY internal of EVERY poll taken in the last four months echoes that sad unelectable number.
It's all about the narrative you choose.

Posted by TheInsider | November 4, 2007 6:55 PM

I find some irony in the fact that someone who calls themselves "TheInsider" is whining about something short of glowing Hillary coverage...

Posted by David | November 4, 2007 7:20 PM

I may be new to politics, but is it always this poll driven? From what I see in the last post, polls are a great tool to try to prove inevitability or slam your opponent. It also seems that the information can be colored by the way the question is worded, the questions that are asked leading up to it, etc. Once the poll is out there, it seems that there are highly trained people telling us what to make of them.
I for one will be really disappointed if the polls are correct because it will mean that we can be 'marketed' into our next president. That's a pretty sad state of affairs.
I volunteer to canvas neighborhoods in Iowa for Obama, and the reality on the ground is a far different story than what I am hearing from these polls. I believe the American people will rise above this new tactic.

Posted by Merri | November 4, 2007 7:27 PM

I'm a Hillary supporter who is now taking a second look at Senator Obama and I'm quite impressed. At the Phildelphia debate he made an excellent point regarding Hillary's reluctance to release her White House records (although she spins it quite differently) and yet she touts her White House experience as qualifying her to be president. I'm beginning to be reminded as to why I was so glad to see the Clintons and all of their baggage leave The White House (although I sure didn't like it that George W. Bush moved in).

I have not given up yet on Hillary, but her evasiveness and spin machine are certainly annoying. Hillary's toughness will be an asset in taking on the Republicans (if her supposed toughness isn't diluted by her campaingn's whining that she is being picked on by her big bad male opponents) and yet her history, obfuscating, and equivocating are among the reasons she is going to be subject to so many attacks.

I'm not quite sold on Senator Obama yet either. Senator Obama seems too nice but that is also part of his appeal - a real healer, a real "uniter not a divider" unlike the one in The White House right now.

Posted by borgrav | November 4, 2007 8:12 PM

Obama dominated this week. Beginning with his NY Times interview which he said he would “forcefully” distinguished his differences with Hillary. Which impacted her performance severely because she hunkered down for three days to prepare and it the performance wasn’t pretty. Obama called her out on her secrecy, of being a Republican wet dream of a candidate, her doublespeak. And to prove his point, Hillary gave a distractions answer for illegal obtaining drivers licenses. Then Hillary played the gender card and Obama countered her with it being unseemly to use gender when infact he hasn’t used his race to object to opponents going soft on him. He dominated the news, with Morning Joe, Today Show, and ABC News. Obama then introduced his Iran bill. Hillary still reeling called in Big boy Bill to do some damage control. He did a 180, authorizing the release of Hillary’s First Lady’s records (not in time for the primaries and enough time to be sanitized). Obama gave two stirring speeches in SC which remind people that he is the best oratory in the democratic party and then he topped off his week with an on point sketch on SNL. All and all a great 7 days for Obama. I expected the primary polls to start moving next week after all this has been absorbed by the American people. Obama, your are on your way to reclaiming America for the people and by the people. Way to go! Obama 08!

Posted by sonya | November 4, 2007 9:55 PM

I have to take issue with the characterization of Clinton as "tough" and Obama as "nice" with the implication that he is not tough enough. When Clinton flip flops on so many issues - Iraq, negotiating with Iran, using nukes with Iran, raising social security taxes, baby bonds, drivers licenses for illegals, whether she is a victim or not, etc - she shows that she is anything but tough. She shows that when the going gets tough, HIllary changes her position. Bashing Bush when he is at 30% approval is not tough....it doesn't take a lot of courage to kick a lame duck. She has a facade of toughness and much of the public have bought into this perception because of an uncritical media. She may be a tough partisan, but she is anything but tough when it comes to issues and policy - where it counts. and this has absolutely nothing to do with her being a woman...it's just who she is.

Now, let's look at Obama. Just because he doesn't make things mean and personal, people think that he maybe isn't tough enough. Look at the last week....he has taken it to her on her biggest vulnerability...character/authenticity/truthfulness...but he has done it in a way that doesn't make him look like a mean aggressor. The needle he is threading is brilliant...and I think time will show how his surgical approach is so much more effective than the brute force of an Edwards. Obama is tough and right and effective, wheras Hillary pretends to be tough, is usually wrong on major issues, and isn't terribly effective (i.e. Health Care in the 90's).

So many partsian dems think that the way to win is to be as nasty as Bush and Rove. But Hillary is our version of Bush..polarizing and hated by the other side. Obama is potentially our version of Reagan...able to unify the left, grab the center, and even get some of the right...I think there will be Obama Republicans just like there were Reagan Democrats.

Another point I want to make.....the desire of many dems to nominate a partisan like Hillary is analagous to the desire of Neocons to bomb Iran....in both cases, it feels good superficially to be tough and combative..but all you end up doing is uniting people against you. If we nominate Hillary, we'll unite a republican party that is currently divided. If we bomb Iran, we'll strengthen Ahmadinejad when he is domestically weak in his country and many moderates question his extremism. I hope my fellow democrats do not view politics the way Neocons view foreign policy....the politics of excessive machismo and feigned toughness may be feel good, but it does not make this world a better place.

Posted by RKA | November 4, 2007 11:37 PM

Didn't Huckabee get 9% not 5%?

Posted by Midwesterner | November 5, 2007 12:20 AM

I am sorry to inform the Hillary detractors here that Hillary has wide and deep support from women across all constituencies; from white and black women; rich and poor women, young and elderly women, unmarried and married women, students (Hillary's latest outreach there is paying off, check the gallup) and I could go on and on.

Are there any of these women - meaning Hillary's "hard" loyal supporters who will be lured over to John Edwards or Barack Obama after what took place at the Drexel Debate on Tuesday?

In your wildest fantasies people. It ain't going to happen.

Posted by Dave Parker | November 5, 2007 4:18 AM

Dave Parker,

Identity politics is an overrated force. More than any other single factor, the loyal partisans who actually make the effort to go to a caucus or vote in a primary are driven by a desire to nominate a candidate who will win. That fact has helped Clinton up to this point, because the national press has been framing almost every event to support the notion that Clinton is the "strongest" candidate. But now it appears that the framing may be shifting, and the national press may start focusing on her shortcomings as a candidate. Once they do that, it is entirely possible that many people will reconsider their support of Clinton, regardless of their gender.

Posted by DTM | November 5, 2007 8:31 AM