CBS, New York Times Polls Of Iowa And New Hampshire

Likely voters, surveyed this weekend -- so, after the Philadelphia debate. (From the poll: "The error due to sampling could be 4 points for Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, 5 points for Iowa Republican caucus-goers, and likely New Hampshire Democratic voters, and 6 points for likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.)

A few items from some of the other questions:

## Republicans in Iowa believe that Rudy Giuliani is the most electable candidate. But they're not voting for him.

## Mike Huckabee's voters are more likely to have made up their minds than Mitt Romney voters.

## More Hillary Clinton voters are unsure of their choices than Obama or Edwards voters

Comments

There was an unusually long survey period for the Iowa portion of the poll -- Nov. 2 to 11. I would be very curious to know if there was a different trend during the second half of that period.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/13/opinion/polls/main3497993_page2.shtml

Posted by PBS | November 13, 2007 7:05 PM

The poll was also taken BEFORE JJ-Dinner...

Posted by David | November 13, 2007 7:21 PM

The major news on the Dems side is Hillary is only polling in 14% of the second choice vote in Iowa, where by Edwards is pulling 30 and Obama 27. If that is true under the system Hillary drops to thrid place.

Posted by Paul8148 | November 13, 2007 8:47 PM

If you take the 2nd choices from the candidates who didn't reach 15% in the poll (which were all but the top 3) and add them to the totals, the final tally breaks down:

Edwards 28.4 - Clinton 27.5 - Obama 26.8

Clinton picks up half as many 2nd choices compared to Edwards and Obama.

Posted by Ben | November 13, 2007 8:49 PM

I am happy to see that hillary's supporters have some doubt. Most of them grabbed onto her mostly due to gender or because the msm kept up a year long love affair with her going and it artificially pumped up her numbers.
They should first look at the candidate and do a little research on her. if they find they like what they read, then fine. But, unless you know about the candidate and support them for shallow reasons, people are bound to be disappointed by their choice and feel betrayed when the candidate is always letting them down.
Most of Obama's and Edwards supporters are more versed in their candidates positions, ideas and records. They are not surprised as the voter is armed with alot more information.
this is why when someone challenges a supporter of obama or edwards where they stand on a issue they can defend the candidate. but, most of Hillary's supporters cannot. They have no clue where she is on the issues.

Posted by vwcat | November 13, 2007 8:53 PM

new S.C poll shows Rudy up 6% and Hillary up 14%, but for the first time through Obama seems to be gaining a soild lead with Africa American Voters down there.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=16534545-fed1-44c2-a2b2-900fe56895df

Posted by Paul8148 | November 13, 2007 9:43 PM

Strategic Vision (R) also has a new Iowa poll out:

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_111407.htm

For the Democrats it is Clinton 29, Obama 27, Edwards 20, Richardson 7, Biden 5.

Posted by DTM | November 13, 2007 9:52 PM

My understanding is that Iowa polls from even days before the actual Caucus tend to be misleading, in whichever direction. That's what I've read over and over from posters from Iowa, and it seems to match the results I remember. So... why do we keep looking at them?

Posted by Paul | November 13, 2007 10:33 PM

Excellent question, Paul. I think the answer is that the market demands this sort of horse race coverage, even though history tells us that the polls are not strongly predictive until the very end.

And that is just for Iowa: looking at polls in NH or later until after Iowa really makes no sense.

Posted by DTM | November 13, 2007 11:11 PM

Barrack Hussein Obama and/or Hillary CANNOT beat Huckabee! 'Huckabee is Lincolnesque': frugal beginnings, a great visionary, and a man of deep spiritual & moral conviction. He is also 'Reaganesque': a great communicator, iconic optimist, and a strong former governor. Huckabee will draw more conservative & moderate dems away from the democratic ticket than Reagan ever dreamed about. Mike Huckabee gives new meaning to the words 'Charm offensive'!

I Like Mike too! He actually belives what he is saying. 'Flip Flop Romney' will say anything to get elected. Lets go James Dobson - Endorse this guy already!

HUCKAPPEAL! Pat Robertson can go sell insurance!

Posted by bryan | November 15, 2007 10:01 AM