It's hard to say, but the maestros of polling, Mark Blumenthal and Prof. Charles Franklin, are beginning to sense something. In New Hampshire. Maybe.
The story "red" tells is that Clinton had a very good third quarter-- good news about her campaign, it's strength, and her good debate performances-- helped raise her New Hampshire standing by five points. Perhaps the same news, or reviews of his failure to make progress, helped sink Obama's support about 4 points during the same third quarter. But since October 1, these patters have changed, with Clinton seeing no further gains and Obama returning to the mid-20s.
Here are Franklin's graphs -- see the "red."
Maybe reality doesn't matter.
ABC's Charlie Gibson was more sure tonight: "Her margin is shrinking."
Perception will drive her numbers down -- and drive her opponents' momentum -- more than reality.
So -- when do we get the next Mark Penn memo explaining why HRC's poll numbers are steady?
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I felt Hillary hit her peak and was about to slide over a month ago. it is inevitable - unlike the way the campaign likes to pretend Hillary is - that all frontrunners will go through a rough patch and how they handle it is what determines if they remain so.
Timing as well.
given that Hillary was going steadily up while the majority of people were not paying close attention and then her horrendous handling in the aftermath of the debate, which should have only been a blip and turned into a major stumble, it was bound to happen.
this is also a major reason for obama hanging back throughout the summer. He was just about to catch up with Hillary and overtake her when he went quiet and pulled back.
His campaign knew Dean had peaked already by this time in 03. And they were fearful of Obama peaking during the summer and losing support too fast.
They knew Hillary would be the one to peak too soon and it would be prime for Obama to step it up about then.
Posted by vwcat | November 13, 2007 12:04 AM