Is in its turnout assumptions: only 50% of the sample are Democrats... 40% are independents and 5% are Republicans.
This could mean two things:
1. Independents love Obama and say they're going to caucus for him but won't
2. Independents love Obama and will go to the caucus, register as Democrats, and caucus for Obama
In any event, the poll suggests that independents are asserting themselves in a way that's confounding the pollsters and the establishment.
Note: Obama's internal polling does not show this high a proportion of independents choosing to caucus.
The Edwards Campaign Responds To The Register's Poll
Here's the Edwards campaigns' internal take on Register poll, which shows them in third.
Is the poll accurate? There are good reasons to think it is NOT.
-The poll was conducted during the holiday AND over the weekend. There is plenty of evidence that either of these would make it more difficult to obtain a representative sample. The combination makes the problem of obtaining a valid sample GEOMETICALLY [sic] worse.
-The poll is at odds with history. The poll says that 60% of Democratic caucus participants will be first timers. Usually, the number of first-time caucus goers is no more than 20%.
-The poll also says that 45% of those at Democratic caucuses will be Independents or Republicans.
The poll is at odds with other polls. Other polls show a close race with other candidates leading.
-Yepsen himself highlights the fluidity of the results rather than the horserace.
What does the poll really say
-The poll says the race is close. With a margin of error of +/-5, any of the top 3 Democrats could be in any of the top 3 positions.
-The poll says the race is yet to be decided. 34% say they could change their minds, and 6% do not express a preference. This means 40% are yet to decide.
-As Yepsen points out, 21% of those in the 2004 entrance poll [said they had made their decisions in the last 3 days -- something this poll cannot capture.
Independents Fuel Obama's Lead / Huck Leads, McCain's In Third Among GOPers
The poll reflects continued fluidity in the race even as the end of the yearlong campaign nears. Roughly a third of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to choose someone else before Thursday evening. Six percent were undecided or uncommitted.
Thirty percent of the poll's respondents said a candidate's ability to bring about change is the most important, followed by 27 percent who said their priority is choosing a candidate who will be the most successful in unifying the country.
Asked which candidate would do the best on these themes, caucusgoers most commonly name Obama. The first-term U.S. senator has argued in the closing weeks of the campaign that his newness to Washington, D.C., would help him bridge a politically divided nation and improve its standing overseas.
Having the experience and competence to lead, which has been the crux of Clinton's closing argument, was seen as the most important to 18 percent of caucusgoers, with Clinton as the candidate most commonly rated best on this trait.
Clinton has made an aggressive effort to court female, first-time caucusgoers, especially younger women and those who are retired. Women account for 58 percent of caucusgoers, according to the survey.
Clinton has rebounded among female caucusgoers in general, pulling even with Obama at 32 percent after losing her edge among this key group to him in the previous Register poll.
Clinton receives more support from women 55 years old and older than her rivals, and she and Obama draw evenly from the pool of female caucusgoers between 35 and 54 years old.
However, she trails Obama badly among women under 35, with just 15 percent to his 57 percent.
The support from non-Democrats is significant because a whopping 40 percent of those planning to attend described themselves as independent and another 5 percent as Republican. Only registered Democrats can participate in the caucuses, although rules allow participants to change their party registration on their way in to the caucuses.
Clinton Raises $100M + In 2007
A Clinton aide said tonight that the campaign has raised more than $100M in 2007.
The aide did not provide a breakdown of how much was raised into an account earmarked for the general election, and would not say how much money Clinton has to spend now.
A $100M tally for the year suggests that Clinton raised more than $20M in the fourth quarter.
Edwards Behind The Scenes
A tipster writes:
John and Elizabeth just did a campaign-wide conference with staff in Iowa, NH, SC, Nevada, and Chapel Hill. Got an update from the Iowa team, and an update from the road. They both thanked the staff for their devotion to the cause. Urged staff and volunteers to remember the people they’ve met along the way (James Lowe for example), how they’re the ones we’re really fighting for… talked about energy they see on the ground, that’s what keeps them going as the move into 36-hour tour.
The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll
.... is out at 9pm CT, 10pm ET.
The Daily Five: Negative Wind Chill Edition
1. ABC News and Fox News may leave candidates Biden, Dodd, Kucnich, Hunter and Paul out of their debates next week.
2. Anti-war activists are arrested outside Huckabee's headquarters......Bay Buchanan endorses Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.....Romney responds to Huckabee's non-negative ad/negative ad by pointing out the weird press conference and offering reporters a slice of pizza......
3. Dave Contarino, the campaign manager for Bill Richardson, sent this message to senior staff today:
* Momentum! Every crowd down the stretch has been overflow and standing room only. In the last 24 hours, over 350 in Ames, 500 in Des Moines with voters lined up outside waiting for a chance to come inside to meet the Governor or have their pictures taken with him as he departs. In some cases, we are getting triple (Onawa and Carroll) the size being expected by local organizers. The Governor's Des Moines speech was interrupted by raucous applause at least a dozen times, and I don't know if I've seen a more excited crowd. When he finished his speech, the Governor walked into the crowd and was immediately swarmed by supporters. It took him more than twenty minutes to leave the event because there were so many people who wanted to talk to the Governor.
* We have over 2,000 organizers, staffers and volunteers across the state.
* On caucus night we'll have over 1,500 precinct captains with over 90% of the state's delegates covered.
* We have made well over half a million phone calls and knocked on more than 200,000 doors.
* We have already confirmed over 18,000 caucus supporters through pledge cards, phone confirmations and home door signups. We expect to reach 22,000 by caucus night. That number alone without any additional unidentified support will get us nearly 20% on caucus night based on previous turnout numbers.
* And we're the confirmed second choice of at least 25% of the caucus goers.
* Our nightly calling is showing a surge. In some precincts, we see 25% of the undecideds breaking our way. We have been moving significant numbers of leaners from the Biden, Obama, Edwards and Clinton columns into our own. Our internal data shows that the Iraq message has been particularly successful in bringing voters to our side. So push it on caucus night! 2013 is far too long to wait for our troops to come home!
4. Joe Biden's communications director, Larry Rasky, sends along some thoughts about electability:
In the closing days of this race for the Democratic nomination for President, voters and reporters alike have heard former Sen. John Edwards make the same electability case over and over again. Edwards argues that with his southern roots he can compete in more states than any other Democratic candidate in the general election.
Last week in New Hampshire, Edwards said: “I think people want someone they know can win in the general election. I think the evidence is overwhelming that I’m very strong, the strongest general election data. . . . I’m the one Democrat who has won in a Red State, who can go into any place in America and be successful.”
However, the evidence that Edwards is more electable is at best thin and is probably misleading.
The first question mark is that Edwards was unlikely to hold onto to his North Carolina Senate seat in 2003 when he decided not to run for re-election. In short, if John Edwards is so electable, why couldn’t he be re-elected in his home state?
Indeed, Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report noted at the time, “Edwards is not that strong.” [The Herald-Sun (Durham, NC), 2/16/03] Research 2000’s poll for the Raleigh News and Observer taken from July 13-16, 2003 showed that Edwards’s re-election number stood at 34 percent. In that same poll, only 45 percent of North Carolinians approved of Edwards’s job as their junior Senator.
Edwards fared no better as the Democratic Party’s Vice Presidential candidate in 2004. After being selected as John Kerry’s running mate, Edwards said, “I think we will be very competitive in the South, particularly in those states in which national Democrats need to be competitive to be successful.” [Associated Press, 7/10/04] Unfortunately, Edwards failed to carry his home state. Edwards lost his home county—Moore County—by more than eleven thousand votes, 24,714 to 13,555. He also lost his hometown by more than 300 votes, 506 to 191.
At the end of the day, despite repeated assurances, Kerry-Edwards also failed to win a single southern state. So it’s understandable that this time around, even John Edwards’s own people are acknowledging his vulnerability: Rob Tully, a former state party chairman and Edwards backer, said “if he doesn't win Iowa or come very close this time, ‘we're done.’” [USA TODAY, 12/12/07]
In addition, there are serious doubts about Edwards’ message. A recent Edwards ad asserts, “It’s time to tell the truth. These big corporations and their greed, they are stealing your children’s future. We will never change this country unless we are willing to take those people on.” Some are arguing that this will not go over well with general election voters. In a column, respected political analyst Stuart Rothenberg wrote, "Edwards certainly would dispute that there is an inherent contradiction between his populist rhetoric and his alleged middle class appeal. But his approach to problems is likely to frighten many voters, including most middle class Americans and virtually all Republicans." [The Rothenberg Political Report, 12/31/07]
So who has what it takes to carry the southern vote? Well, with so much riding on his southern electability argument, “native son” John Edwards actually fares only 4 points ahead of Joe Biden in the most recent Insider Advantage poll out of South Carolina. And if one thing is certain in the 2008 race, it’s that no Democrat will win using the same 20-plus-five strategy that has failed in the last two elections. In this general election, Joe Biden has set a 15-18 red state strategy, which not only sets him apart from the top tier, but gives him the most realistic shot at victory next November.
Furthermore, Joe Biden has historically and consistently won by large margins. In 1972, Joe Biden staged a huge upset, unseating two-term Sen. Caleb Boggs, a popular former congressman and governor. Since then, Joe Biden has consistently won re-election by over 15 percentage points, and always garnering more than 57 percent of the vote.
Sen. Biden’s victories have also come during times of strong Republican presence in the Delaware, in the form of both a Republican Senator (William Roth) and Republican Governors (du Pont, Castle and Wolf). Rep. Mike Castle consistently wins statewide, earning 57 percent in the last election. The Delaware State House has split leadership, with Democrats controlling the Senate and Republicans controlling the House.
These are the facts.
Wishing you all a happy and thoughtful New Year. Larry
4. The Des Moines International Airport sent a press release to Iowa newsrooms that contains this kicker line:
Many national and international media personnel will be attempting to leave Central Iowa. It will take the cooperation of everyone to ensure this happens efficiently and that the nation gets a good picture of the capability of Central Iowans.
5. Here's an AtlantiCam interview with Mike DuHaime, Rudy Giuliani's campaign manager. In it, I almost get run over my a car. Enjoy.
Ellen Malcolm And EMILY's List
It's interesting how much scrutiny the Edwards campaign is getting over a 527 run by a former campaign manager....
Well, EMILY's List's Ellen Malcolm was one of the earliest major endorsers of Hillary Clinton....serves as a national co-chair of her presidential campaign...still serves as president of EMILY's List....even as EMILY's List is running an independent expenditure campaign in Iowa on Clinton's behalf.
Not that there's anything wrong with that....but the ties between Malcolm and the Clinton campaign are provably more tight than the ties between Baldick and John Edwards (although Edwards has taken to calling Baldick "a guy who used to work for me," which, while true, is a little too cute...)
Malcolm has said that she's created a firewall between herself and the independent expenditure efforts.
Edwards Spox Asks Obama To Stop "Lying"
IOWA -- CBS News' Maria Gavrilovic**, traveling with the Obama campaign in Jefferson, IA, recorded this answer of Barack Obama's to a questioner who wanted to know why he should chose the senator from Illinois over the former senator from North Carolina:
"If you are then choosing between Edwards and myself, then I would say this. He is a fine person, with a beautiful family who's run a very good campaign. But I would say that if you look at the track records of who has really brought about change when then were in a position to do it, then I can make a claim that you can trust, that you can count on. When I was in the senate I fought and got the power of lobbyists reduced, that’s not something that John has invested in, even though he’s talking about it now."
"When I talk about getting troops out of Iraq, I was opposed to the war at the start when it was unpopular to be against the war.
"John was for it. When I talk about trade, and that we should have environmental agreements in out trade agreements, I didn’t support NAFTA, didn’t vote for permanent trade relations for China, John did."
"When I talk about the hardships of working families and some of them for no fault of their own because they got sick become bankrupt and there were laws passed pushed by the credit card companies that made it harder to get out of bankruptcy and John voted for that provision. I had rejected similar provisions."
"I am saying this only because you have to look at where somebody has been to know where they are going. He says now that those were mistakes and I have no reason to doubt that he believes that but I guess the point I am making is in my gut, there is a consistency of who I am fighting for, what I believe in, choices I have made in my life that can give you some assurance of when I get into the White House. I am going to be fighting for you and I am not going to be different as time goes on."
Read these remarks by CBS's Aaron Lewis, John Edwards's spokesman, Mark Kornblau, said:
""Barack Obama should stop lying to Iowans about John Edwards's record. Really."
** = Disclosure: I put CBS's reporters output on this blog because (a) I'm now a consultant to their news division and (b) they tend to have the best stuff, the fastest. But if you're cynical, you can just go with (a).
A Conversation With Myself About "Negative Ads"
I’ve always tried to keep a distinction between negative ads and contrast ads.
Maybe it’s a losing cause, as voters don’t seem to appreciate the difference, and if they don’t, than those of who cover politics probably shouldn’t either. But to me, an ad is “negative” when it attacks someone’s personal character. John McCain uses the Concord Monitor to call Romney a “phony.” That’s negative.
When Romney runs an arguably misleading ad that tries to draw a contrast between himself and McCain on a matter of public policy, he’s not resorting to an ad hominem attack.
Huckabee Decides Not To Air Those Nasty Ads...And Then Airs A Nasty Ad
The Romney campaign is already calling this a "meltdown." Whatever it is, it's a little bizarre.
So Mike Huckabee schedules a news conference to talk about the negative ads he's decided to run against Mitt Romney. The campaign staff dutifully prints up large placards highlighting points from the ad. A few minutes before the press conference is set to begin, Huckabee apparently changes his mind and asks his staff to pull the ads -- they'd already been sent to television stations.
But -- what the heck -- Huckabee decides to play the ad he won't broadcast for the media at the press conference, presumably hoping that gullible news executives will run the ad that Huckabee is too much of a saint for not airing -- for free.
CBS's Joy Lin transcribed Huck's quote:
“We prepared it, sent it to the stations, supposed to start running at noon today. This morning, I ordered my staff to pull the ad; I told them I do not want it to be run. If it was run at all, it would be until the stations pulled it off their schedules. And we are now committed, from now through the rest of the caucuses, that we will run only the ads that talk about why I should be president, and not why Mitt Romney should not. I know that some of are up saying, well did you really have an ad? Well, I’m going to show you the ad. You’ll get the chance to find out.”
The Dallas Morning News seems to buy the Huckabee spin:
In a news conference Monday designed to launch an all out assault against Mr. Romney, Mr. Huckabee said he would instead remain positive. "At some point we have to decide can we change politics and the level of discourse?" he said.
Most reporters did not.
They started to laugh.
A Giuliani Campaign Memo: We Ain't Sweating...
Strategy Memo: Looking Good Today
TO: TEAM RUDY
FROM: BRENT SEABORN, STRATEGY DIRECTOR
RE: Looking Good
DATE: December 31, 2007
Read the memo after the jump.... but here are two accompanying charts.
Via Ben Smith, an evaluation of a thinly-veiled, fairly intellectually attempt to tie Barack Obama to the Muslim faith...from a writer, Daniel Pipes, who is clearly not a fan of the Muslim faith.
More significantly, how would more mainstream Muslims respond to him, would they be angry at what they would consider his apostasy? That reaction is a real possibility, one that could undermine his initiatives toward the Muslim world.
What's so interesting is how easily and quickly, after just a few early news accounts, the false notion that Obama is or was ever Muslim has made it into mainstream discourse. (The distinction between being raised in a family associated with a certain religion and being -- assuming -- the identity of a practitioner of said religion is, I think, a distinction worth preserving, particularly when we're talking about a little kid. The available evidence suggests that Obama was raised by his Christian mother, was exposed to a variety of religions by his family and friends growing up, and later solidified his Christian faith by formally accepting Christ as his lord and savior.)
In a conference call with reporters today, Barack Obama's campaign manager gave a detailed brief for Obama's viability in Iowa and the primaries through Jan. 5. He spent considerably time gently eviscerating (thanks, Mark Leibovich, for the phrase) John Edwards's chances after Iowa, contending that he has no organization to speak of in most of the states following Iowa and is severely limited as to what he can raise and spend.
The timing of the call isn't unusual, but some more skeptical wags will suggest that Plouffe might have been trying to pre-but the campaign's nagging snese that the Des Moines Register poll out tonight may include unfavorable news for Obama. (Does it? I have no idea.)
Plouffe asserted that Obama "has the dominant field organization in Iowa" and is well positioned to win "with even the most aggressive turnout models." And Obama is strong outside the cities, Plouffe said. "We believe we're going to be viable in every county, in every precinct."
Internal research, Plouffe said, showed that Obama is the strongest second choice preference among those Democrats most likely to caucus.
Plouffe was forward looking. On the Feb. 5:
"Sen. Edwards will have no operation to speak of in the Feb. 5 states. I believe Sen. Clinton has political or field organizations in five or six of those states. We have, I believe, 17 of the 22 states covered."
## Plouffe said his campaign number crunchers estimate that John Edwards, who has accepted federal financing and its attendent caps, can spend only $17M more between now and Democratic National Convention.
## He insinuated that the campaign's internal polling shows Obama leading in New Hampshire.
## Plouffe said that the campaign estimates turnout among African Americans in South Carolina will be well above 50%. "We don't think there's any way it's going to slip below 50," he said, referring to public polls suggesting a black voter turnout of less than 45%.
## "We believe that by Feb 6., we'll be turning our attention to the general election."
A power point presentation accompanied Plouffe's: here are the most interesting slides:
Alert: Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll Out Tonight...
Edwards Buys Register Ad, TV Time For 2nd And 3rd
John Edwards's campaign has purchased sixty seconds worth of ad time on Iowa evening newscasts on both the 2nd and 3rd...and has also requisitioned a full page advertisement in tomorrow's Des Moines Register...
How Did Mike Huckabee Spend His Sunday?
Shooting television ads...some of them mentioning Mitt Romney and a certain quality Huckabee associates with him.... ads which will begin running today.
Huckabee has a noon CT news conference at the Marriott (zing!) -- to talk about the ads and whatever else reporters have on their minds.
Atlantic Umpire: Is Edwards A Campaign Finance Hypocrite?
In a blistering memorandum sent to reporters on Saturday, Barack Obama’s campaign manager accused John Edwards of sanctioning an effort by his former campaign manager to surreptitiously spend millions worth of unregulated contributions on Edwards’s behalf.
“John Edwards, who is running in large part on a recently adopted campaign platform of taking on the big corporate interests in Washington, is relying on a former aide to run an unregulated 527 operating outside campaign finance limits to support his candidacy,” manager David Plouffe writes.
“Even as he was decrying such influence last week, his former campaign manager was spending $750,000 on television ads in Iowa. If Edwards can’t stand up to his own former aides how can stand up to the special interests in Washington?”
The Politics
That the campaign would issue a memo in Plouffe’s name suggests a degree of frustration, be it with the press for not covering the issue sufficiently or a general sense of anxiety about the atmosphere in Iowa. That Plouffe would descend into the weeds with Edwards over a 527 is suggests that the Obama campaign really wants to have this debate, and have it publicly, right now, five days before the Iowa caucuses. Indeed, for days, Obama himself has been flaying Edwards for hypocrisy, often by name.
On Sunday, Obama told Kay Henderson:
The main concern is that if you have undisclosed donors, people writing half-million dollar checks to finance your campaign, then you're basically circumventing the campaign finance laws and that's not the way we're going to bring change in Washington. You know, you can't on one hand argue that you're going to go after the fat cats and then we have hundreds of thousands of dollars coming in from who knows who and it means that there's less accountability, less disclosure, and if that's the game that we play then there's nothing to prevent those same corporate lobbyists that John Edwards decries from doing the exact same thing to us so there's just go to be some consistency and, you know, straightforwardness in how we approach these issues."
The implication is that Edwards is coordinating with this 527, the Alliance for a New America (AFNA), and is slyly sanctioning their efforts. Obama even claims that someone is writing "half million dollar" checks to Edwards's campaign.
Are these charges true? Is Edwards guilty of hypocrisy? Is he acting in bad faith?
Says Gov. Mike Huckabee, in an interview with two friends, the Post's Perry Bacon and Time's Michael Scherer:
I can hire people, once I raise the money, who can come up with all kinds of proposals. That's fine. That's good. But the real question is: Am I going to be able to be a leader? You know there is a difference between a leader and a manager.
And Huckabee points to a definitional moment for him:
To me, [there] was a seminal moment, in Dearborn, when we were at that debate, the CNBC-MSNBC debate. And the question was asked, 'How do you think the economy is doing?' And down the line Republicans go, 'Ah it's going great, just terrific.' They are all quoting RNC talking points-22 consecutive quarters of great economic growth-telling us all these things that are right off the page. And they came to me, and I took a lot of criticism for it, but I said, 'Well for a lot of guys on this stage the economy is doing really well. But there are a lot of guys out there driving the cabs, handling the bags and serving the food at the tables, and they have a very different picture about how this economy is doing.' And I think that is where I sense the disconnect. I wonder sometimes: 'Did you talk to the guy? Have you ever sat down and not just said, 'Hi, how you doing? Thanks for coming.' But have you had the conversation-'Tell me what you are worried about?' That's the question you ask. What are you worried about? And it's not so much what is happening in Iran. That's important to him. He may not understand every day how important that is. But you know what is important to him? If gas is $3 a gallon, can he afford to put enough of it in his tank to get him to and from work, every day this week? That's real. That's real for him.
December 30, 2007
McCain Changes Mind; Will Continue To Tweak Romney In Ads
What John McCain said yesterday about moving on from Mitt Romney -- check that.
The campaign will continue to use the medium of television advertising to push the notion that Romney is deliberately misleading New Hampshire Republicans and independents about McCain's record.
"You know, I find it ironic that Mitt Romney would attack me on the issue of immigration. This is the same Mitt Romney who called my plan "reasonable." Before I can win your vote, I know I have to win your respect. And to do that, you know I'll always be straight with you. And on this issue, I've learned that we've got to restore trust in government and secure our borders."
The ad was previewed on ABC's "This Week" this morning, but it was unclear, initially, whether the ad would be sent to stations for broadcast.
"We're getting such a great response from the ad citing NH newspaper's assessments of Romney that we're re-evaluating whether we want to switch gears," a McCain aide said of the decision.
One Person Who Won't Be Serving In An Edwards Administration
is one of the architects of his sharper populism, Joe Trippi.
Edwards says that anyone who's ever served as a lobbyist for a foreign country or agent would be forbidden from serving as a political appointee in his administration.
Trippi worked for a guy who was paid $200,000 by then Nigerian vice president Atiku Abubakar for help creating a telephone-based get-out-the-vote system in the country's 2006 elections. Trippi was duly registered with the State Department.
(Note: Trippi never lobbied on behalf of a foreign government...)
Incidentally, Trippi tells me he's thinking of working with the Nigerians on a text-messaging campaign to distribute information about HIV/AIDS and other communicable diseases... which is a good thing.
The Morning Five.
The biggest sign that something is happening in New Hampshire: John McCain is starting to have to pool his events....
The biggest sign that something is happening in Iowa: Hillary Clinton's starting to draw standing ovations in her speeches...
Sunday Must Reads
1. Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny on the Iowa field wars. Among their observations: Obama's looking for independents under 50; HRC is looking for single women; Edwards is looking at lists.
Desperate to detect a trend in this land of deadlocked Democratic polls, I telephoned Teesha (a vocational rehabilitation specialist) on Thursday to gauge the sentiments of this one-woman focus group. "I still don't know," she said, after describing herself sitting in an empty room aside from a single chair and her laptop. "It all comes down to who has the best chance of winning."
Electability may be the most important factor churning in the minds of the undecided and loosely aligned voters whose last-minute decisions will tilt the caucuses. "The undecideds are just sitting there," said Julie Jensen, the Iowa coordinator for Chris Dodd. "We had an event in Des Moines last night for 100 people -- and half of them were undecided."
4. A Mitt Romney campaign research document: " Huckabee's Bogus Foreign Policy "Advisers" (it's after the jump).
To watch today: HRC and McCain on This Week with George S.; Thompson on Fox News Sunday; Huckabee and Obama on Meet; Face has John Edwards; Late Edition gets Dodd and Biden;
Also: Edwards and Obama continue to clash over ethics and 527s; Obama's manager, Plouffe, sends a memo blasting a pro-Edwards 527 run by ex-mgr Nick Baldick, insinuates that it coordinated with the Edwards campaign and questions donation by 97-year-old Mellon heiress;
Edwards announces plans for his "Marathon for the Middle Class" tour and then promises to bar corporate lobbyists from working in the White House; Obama campaign responds skeptically. CBS's Maria Gavrilovic notes that Obama has decided to name names:
"He has said this in the past but has added this line to the closing argument speech today. “Voting because we are afraid of what Mitt or Rudy will say, just won’t do!” Obama also referenced polls in which he is beating the Republicans, “Have you seen the polls? In every pool that I am up against a Republican, I beat them! I beat Huckabee and McCain,” Obama shouted into the mic. He then took it a step futher, “John Edwards doesn’t do that! Hillary Clinton doesn’t beat all of the Republicans! I do!”
The AP notices that Edwards no longer includes a reference to the Mellon family when he recounts the villains of the Gilded Age.
Trust Huckabee's on the air in New Hampshire with this ad:
Barack Obama, more than most, has the power to inspire. The positive tone of his campaign is not a gimmick. He is a serious candidate with sober ideas. For reasons symbolic and substantive, he would also be a nominee Democrats could feel proud to vote for. But Hillary Clinton's unique combination of smarts, experience and toughness makes her the best choice to win the November election and truly get things done.
One of the campaigns has taken to calling me the "Size Guru;" that can be interpreted any number of ways.
But John Edwards drew more than 1,000 people to a Des Moines rally tonight.
And there are no Illinois license plates in the parking lot...
(The size estimate comes from a CBS News reporter on the scene...not from the erstwhile Edwards campaign.)
Earlier in the day, 200 showed up to hear Edwards in Muscatine, 300 showed up at a small venue in Washington, where staircases and even a second floor were used for overflow crowds; and then 300 in Knoxville, where the campaign claims they expected 125.
Huckabee Has Heart, And It May Be Enough
INDIANOLA, IOWA -- A string of foreign policy gaffes has made it clear to the national political press corps that Mike Huckabee is manifestly unqualified to be president. Those questions dogged Huckabee at a press conference in Iowa today, and Mitt Romney's campaign is taking steps to ensure that his gaffes are indelible.
But what if none of this matters?
To some observers, the issue landscape in 2008 reminds them of 1992; voters seem to be inwardly-focused; Democrats, in particular, seem to want change; Republicans seem to be equally as frustrated that the government doesn't work for them. It's a weird disjuncture because the paramount conflicts of the day are outer-focused; Pakistan, Iraq, global climate change, worldwide economic instability. But none of those issues -- on either side -- has ticked the needle in any direction. Republicans are moved by immigration; Democrats, by health care; Democrats seem to want competence; Republicans seem to want authenticity.
And the reasons why Iowa Republicans fell in love with Mike Huckabee don't seem to have anything to do with nuclear proliferation or with any prospective evaluation of his fitness as a leader. They really like him; his personal attributes are megavolts more powerful than any of his rivals; his unvarnished evangelical worldview is enough.
Owen Walker, a farmer from Indianola, became a convert today. "He's got.. he's got heart. He's a good man," he said. A fundamentally decent guy. "A down to earth person who we're going to be able to trust."
His friend, Jim Meadows, told me: "When I really came to realize that he'd be a good candidate is when he demonstrated during the debates that he showed a lot of wisdom in the way he answered the question. The man is a genuine next-door neighbor type."
And all the criticism? It makes these men more convinced that Huckabee is their guy.
Mitt Romney will air a second ad drawing distinctions with John McCain on immigration, campaign aides said last night. Here's an exclusive preview:
The ad dispenses with the friendly "both good men" sentence and gets right into the details. It's not a negative ad -- McCain's the one who dropped the "phony bomb"-- but some of the details are misleading.
McCain did not favor extending Social Security benefits to illegal immigrants -- only that, when a certain percentage of them were given legal status after paying a penalty, that they then become eligible. The vote in question would have permitted regularized immigrants to claim Social Security credit for some work they did while illegal -- not exactly the same thing as extending benefits to illegal immigrants. And before he ran for president, Romney was more congenial to the approach he now excoriates, and had nice things to say about McCain's comprehensive reform proposals.
Remember, these ads aren't designed to pull folks away from McCain -- they're designed to keep folks comfortable with Romney.
GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY: "I'm Mitt Romney and I approved this message."
ANNOUNCER: "Mitt Romney and John McCain on immigration.
"McCain championed a bill to let every illegal immigrant stay in America permanently.
"He even voted to allow illegal immigrants to collect Social Security.
"Mitt Romney said 'no' to driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.
"'No' to tuition breaks for illegal immigrants, and he authorized his State Police to enforce federal immigration law.
"On illegal immigration, there's a big difference."
December 28, 2007
Obama Outdraws Edwards In Davenport...
At least 850 Iowans showed up to hear Barack Obama speak.... and not more than 350 are hearing John Edwards speak at the same time in the same town...
There may be external reasons why the crowd sizes differ (proximity to Illinois?), but I'll bet the Edwards campaign would have enjoyed a larger crowd.
McCain's Response Ad In New Hampshire: Romney's A "Phony"
x
The Daily Three: Dead Heats
1. New KCCI poll to be released at 6pm ET.... tight races all around in Iowa.....a Lee Enterprise poll shows a three-way Dem tie in Iowa...
2. On a conference call, Mike Huckabee says he has roughly $2M cash on hand and expects to have raised approximately $5M over the internet this quarter. .... Fred Thompson raises $240,000 online .... Ron Paul will wind up having raised $20M this quarter....Reporter estimates that Mitt Romney has spent $80M so far....
3. Obama runs an endorsement ad in NH and an ad decrying special interest cash in IA.....Huckabee runs an ad mentioning "the creator" and one decrying negative ads....Romney ad in Iowa cites Condi Rice as calling Huckabee's foreign policy contentions "ludicrous"....HRC runs ad on mortgage crisis....Edwards has two new ads... "Born For" and "Native Son"
4. Correction: In case it wasn't clear, Iowa PIRG registered 54,000 young people to vote in 2004 and 2006, not for the January 3rd caucuses this year, program director Sujatha Jahagirdar e-mails.
Gut v. Head
In attempting to aggressively to shape the political afterquakes of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination to their closing argument, the Obama campaign may have deliberately violated their “Never Let Them See You Sweat” rule.
The Clinton campaign wanted to let the story speak for itself, betting that the general atmospherics are more potent than the specific type of precipitation – that anything that speaks to the need to have a credible Commander in Chief helps her, even when the specifics – a resurgent Al Qaeda, Middle East chaos, -- might remind Democrats of her war vote. It's a distinction between gut and head; if you're a Democrat, your gut sends you to safe harbors; your head sends you to the candidate who got it right.
If the atmospherics benefit Hillary Clinton, it's because the assassination itself is less important to voters than the general feeling of instability that emanates from the Middle East; War is the ultimate existential threat. Nuclear terrorism is the existential threat of our age.
If the atmospherics benefit Barack Obama, it's because voters went beyond their gut feelings and engaged their brains; listened to Obama's argument and then recalled their anger (another emotion!) at Democrats in 2002.
If you want to know why pundits are suggesting that Clinton might find the circumstances more congenial, it's because an affective response is instantaneous, and an affective response like fear is usually indelible; it takes a few more microseconds for that prefrontal cortex to engage, to call on those arguments stored in the hippocampus, and to cogitate.
Michelle Obama -- A Not So Secret Weapon In South Carolina
For black voters – especially black women voters -- in South Carolina, the two biggest concerns they voice about Barack Obama are (1) the fear that he’ll be a martyr and would get shot and (2) the conviction (or fear) that conviction that white people won’t vote for him, thus balkanizing his candidacy and setting back the cause of civil rights for a generation.
Obama has the support of well more than half of South Carolina's black Democratic men, but he splits the votes of black women with Hillary Clinton.
The panacea has always been a win in Iowa – if those white folks found Obama acceptable, then black Democrats would be socially cued to accept his candidacy as potentially transformative.
But Obama’s campaign believes that they're beginning to succeed in wooing black voters away from Hillary Clinton well before a single person has caucused.
The secret is a famous woman -- but not the Big O -- the Big M -- Michelle Obama, whose campaign stops in South Carolina are devoted to the story of how she, too, had similar fears, and how she came to cast them away.
A turning point may be have been a big M.O, speech in on November 20, Orangeburg, where she told hundreds of black voters that she’s “so tired of being afraid” and didn’t want her daughters to grow up being afraid. She speaks of her proud, South Carolinian grandfather, who taught her that “my destiny had not been written before I was born.” Her family “gave her the strength and courage to overcome the doubts” that she faced as a young girl growing up on the south side of Chicago.
A few years ago, the Obamas met Coretta Scott King, a “woman so graceful and dignified”… King told her to “not be afraid…that God was with us, and that she would always keep us in her prayers.” “This is a woman who overcome other people’s doubts and ignorance…”
King, in other words, conferred her blessing on the Obamas.
So -- how to spread this benediction to voters?
The campaign made DVDs out of Michelle Obama's “Fear” speech and plays them regularly -- at house parties, at events, at organizing conclaves, at beauty parlors and barber shops -- what the campaign calls its B and Bs.
Voters who listen to Michelle Obama’s reasoning are said to be quite impressed and if they had reason to doubt, are invariably much more comfortable with the idea of Obama’s candidacy.
“If Michelle Obama could speak with every voter,” an Obama aide said, “We’d run away with the election.”
(Judge for yourself: the 30 minute speech is right here.)
Against McCain, Romney Takes The Plunge
The risks of running a contrast ad against John McCain are large. This cycle, everyone seems to like McCain in New Hampshire -- 20 editorial boards, even the Union Leader -- and the local press seems to be in an aidin' and abetin' mode.
Several Romney aides said that the script for the advertisement had been approved yesterday after an internal debate.
The benefit in running the ad, according to these aides, is that it will remind core Republican voters -- Romney's New Hampshire base -- about the differences between the two men. The ad doesn't necessarily intend to dissuade Republicans from voting for McCain as much as it intends to persuade Republicans intending to vote for Romney that they've made the right choice.
Early reaction to the ad is muted. The New York Times's Santora calls it misleading in several respects.
Rumor: McCain has formally accepted federal financing for his primary campaign and thus is subject to its limits...
Fact: McCain has secured a loan using his campaign's assets as collateral...but not future funds from the federal match... and has not opted in to the nomination funding system. The FEC has approved million of dollars worth of matching funds, but McCain can't spend them until March and hasn't decided whether he'll need to.
McCain advisers believe that a victory in New Hampshire will ease his money woes considerably...(although the same argument was made in 2000...)
Not to pick on Gov. Huckabee, but -- again -- in times of crises, little details count. Pakistan shares its western border with Afghanistan ... Not an eastern border.
GOV. HUCKABEE: People who questioned my view of foreign policy probably need go back and read the speech that I delivered back in Washington in September. I talked about Pakistan and the delicate situation and the fact that at that time when the three people, Sharif, Bhutto, and Musharraf all in the bid for the leadership position, how delicate it was and how while Bhutto probably brought the most pro-American position, both she and Sharif brought essentially centrist and secular perspectives to the government. We have seen what happen in the Musharraf government, he has told us he does not have enough control of those eastern borders near Afghanistan to be able go after the terrorists. but on the other hand, did he not want us going in.
Pastors Urged To Caucus By Huckabee Supporters
Here's an explicit example of how Mike Huckabee is relying on an outsourced Get-Out-The-Caucusers effort and on the implied support of pastors -- under the radar.
Pastor Rick Scarborough is hosting a conference call with Iowa pastors to discuss the caucus... joining him are Dr. Tim "Left Behind" LaHaye and Dr. Michael "Home School" Farris.
All three are committed supporters of Mike Huckabee. An e-mail sent to Iowa pastors advertising the call doesn't mention Huckabee -- that wouldn't be legal -- but does say that pastors "have a duty" to keep their congregants "informed" and to lead them to "participate" in the caucuses.
Farris has been a senior unpaid adviser to Huckabee from day one and was key in helping to organize the families of home schoolers to attend the Republican straw poll in Ames last summer.
This is all, again, legal, provided the pastors stay within certain guidelines. But it's very easy to see that a mobilization of pastors and their congregants helps a single candidate. And given how successfully evangelicals have knocked and dragged their voters in the past, their might -- even uncoordinated -- could overwhelm the most established of Iowa organizations on caucus night.
(Note: I've cut and pasted from the original e-mail in order to make the e-mail fit ... I only deleted the dial-in information.)
December 27, 2007
Weird Connections
Those of us who've had the privilege to write for the Harvard Crimson might find this interesting. It seems that Benazir Bhutto was a sports comper in 1972.
AtlantiCam: Bhutto's Assassination And The Primaries
Yes, I have a radio face. And my jowls aren't that big in person. But..
AFSCME Steps Up Anti-Obama Spending
According to their latest FEC filing, an American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees politics fund plans to spend around $40K to distribute informational cards through the mail in New Hampshire that oppose candidate "Barrack Obama."
That's Barack with one "r," guys.
A separate AFSCME political committee reported spending $70K today on pro-Clinton mailings in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Axelrod Amplifies His Remarks About Clinton and Pakistan
I just recieved a call from David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist, who told me that "in no way" was his comment about Hillary Clinton "meant to be an unprovoked, sort of strategic foray."
"It was an answer to the question -- in no way was I implying that she was personally responsible for what happened."
I asked whether Axelrod meant to imply that her vote was in part responsible for creating the conditions that led to an Al Qaeda resurgance.
"All I’m implying is [about] the policy that the war in Iraq that Obama said in 2002 was going to distract us from Afghanistan and Pakistan and Al Qaeda, and that they would regenerate themselves and that they would become more powerful and influential. He exercised good judgment. She’ll have to explain her position."
Axelrod acknowledged it was fair to say that he was pointing out that votes have consequences, and that the Iraq vote Clinton took in 2002 had specific consequences that may have helped lead to an emboldened Al Qaeda.
"Everyone who was there understands the context. There were 20 reporters there and only one who wrote that. I know that [Clinton spokesman] Phil [Singer] and [communications director] Howard Wolfson are ...trying to stoke the meager, flickering embers, but there's just no fire there."
The Daily Five: On Pakistan
Barack Obama's closing argument, in Des Moines:
"The truth is, you can have the right kind of experience and the wrong kind of experience. Mine is rooted in the real lives of real people, and it will bring real results if we have the courage to change. I believe deeply in those words. But they are not mine. They were Bill Clinton's in 1992, when Washington insiders questioned his readiness to lead,"
... MSNBC counts nine separate "distinctions" with Edwards and Clinton in the speech.... Obama's team dismisses questions about whether he percieves Edwards as a real threat to be "absurd" but leading Edwards adviser in Iowa acknowledges as much to reporters.....privately, candidate is update and confident....Obama team teases about "major" South Carolina endorsement it'll soon recieve, but it won't be Rep. James Clyburn......
2. Ex-defense lawyer John Edwards previews his closing argument, scheduled for tomorrow in an old labor town of Dubuque:
"“Why on earth would we expect the corporate powers and their lobbyists – who make billions by selling out the middle-class – to just give up just because we ask nicely? Nobody who takes their money and defends the broken system is going to bring change. And, unfortunately, nobody who thinks we can just sit down and talk them into compromise is going to bring change either. Compromise and conciliation is the academic theory of change. It just doesn’t work in the real world. Fighting for conviction is the historic reality of change.”
3. Hillary Clinton's campaign spends hundreds of thousands (in excess of $1 million?) to purchase two minutes of television airtime on every 6pm newscast throughout the state.
4. Well-regarded GOP operative Jay Ragley rejoins South Carolina Republican Party as its executive director. The immediate past ED Hogan Gidley will serve as a senior adviser.
5. Attention Paul Tewes: Iowa PIRG's "New Voters Project" estimates it has registered more than 54,000 18-to-30 year olds to vote in the caucuses...(most of them Democratic - that's my assumption), and has made nearly 100,000 voter contacts. A PIRG official says that young voter turnout in Iowa was the 4th highest, percentage-wise, in the nation in 2004, which is significant because Iowa's an old state.
A bonus:
6. Romney allies point to campaign's robust early voting program in Florida as a sign of strength. Normally loquacious advisers decline to discuss but hint that Romney is banking thousands of votes.
Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards talked with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf early this afternoon (Iowa time). Here's Edwards talking about the situation (mp3 runs 2 minuates)
Henderson: "In regards to the situation in Pakistan, if you were president, what would you be doing?"
Edwards: "If I were president I would do some of what I've already done. I spoke with the Pakistani Ambassador and then a few minutes ago I spoke with President Musharraf, urging him to continue on the path to democratization, to allow international investigators to come in to determine what happened, what the facts were so that there would be transparency and credibility about what actually occurred and also about the upcoming schedule of elections and that the important thing for America to do in this unstable environment is first of all focus on the tragedy that's occurred. Benazir Bhutto was a strong woman, a courageous woman, someone that I actually spoke at a conference with a few years and she talked about the path to democracy in Pakistan being baptized in blood so she understood the extraordinary risk that she was taking by going back and it's a terrible tragedy for the people of Pakistan, but it's important for America to be a calming influence and provide strength in this environment."
Henderson: "How did you get in touch with Musharraf? What's the relationship there?"
Political reporters and analysts are unapologetically trying to determine the political ramifications of the Bhutto assassinations, yours truly included. And while many of the presidential campaigns have incorporated the day's events into their campaign argument explicitly, Barack Obama's big cheeses aren't holding back, and neither is a surrogate of Hillary Clinton's.
Maybe I'm parsing this too much. Judge for yourself.
Bhutto’s death will “call into issue the judgment: who’s made the right judgments ... Obviously, one of the reasons that Pakistan is in the distress that it’s in is because al-Qaeda is resurgent, has become more powerful within that country and that’s a consequence of us taking the eye off the ball and making the wrong judgment in going into Iraq. That’s a serious difference between these candidates and I’m sure that people will take that into consideration."
He continues, according to the account on Time.com:
“She was a strong supporter of the war in Iraq, which we would submit, was one of the reasons why we were diverted from Afghanistan, Pakistan and al-Qaeda, who may have been players in this event today, so that’s a judgment she’ll have to defend.
In other words: Clinton's judgment helped create the conditions that led to Bhutto's assassination. (The failure of American foreign policy helped create the conditions that led to Bhutto's assassination. The judgment of the American people -- who, like Clinton, supported the war in 2002 -- helped create the conditions that led to the assassination of Bhutto.)
An Obama aide says I'm "absurd" for drawing this conclusion-- after all, I'm sitting at a desk in Washington and wasn't present for the Q and A with reporters. "He didn't draw a straight-line relationship," another aide said.
The second aide passes along more of what Axelrod said, so read it for yourself:
Well, it puts on the table foreign policy judgment, and that's a discussion we welcome. Barack Obama had the judgment to oppose the war in Iraq, and he warned at the time it would divert us
