Independents Fuel Obama's Lead / Huck Leads, McCain's In Third Among GOPers

The Register's take.

The numbers:

Obama: 32%

Clinton: 25%

Edwards: 24%.

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Huckabee: 32%

Romney: 26%

McCain: 14%

The key points:

The poll reflects continued fluidity in the race even as the end of the yearlong campaign nears. Roughly a third of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to choose someone else before Thursday evening. Six percent were undecided or uncommitted.

Thirty percent of the poll's respondents said a candidate's ability to bring about change is the most important, followed by 27 percent who said their priority is choosing a candidate who will be the most successful in unifying the country.

Asked which candidate would do the best on these themes, caucusgoers most commonly name Obama. The first-term U.S. senator has argued in the closing weeks of the campaign that his newness to Washington, D.C., would help him bridge a politically divided nation and improve its standing overseas.

Having the experience and competence to lead, which has been the crux of Clinton's closing argument, was seen as the most important to 18 percent of caucusgoers, with Clinton as the candidate most commonly rated best on this trait.

Clinton has made an aggressive effort to court female, first-time caucusgoers, especially younger women and those who are retired. Women account for 58 percent of caucusgoers, according to the survey.

Clinton has rebounded among female caucusgoers in general, pulling even with Obama at 32 percent after losing her edge among this key group to him in the previous Register poll.

Clinton receives more support from women 55 years old and older than her rivals, and she and Obama draw evenly from the pool of female caucusgoers between 35 and 54 years old.

However, she trails Obama badly among women under 35, with just 15 percent to his 57 percent.

The support from non-Democrats is significant because a whopping 40 percent of those planning to attend described themselves as independent and another 5 percent as Republican. Only registered Democrats can participate in the caucuses, although rules allow participants to change their party registration on their way in to the caucuses.

Comments

Here's to hoping the DMR keeps their winning track record going this year!

Posted by AC Slater | December 31, 2007 10:04 PM

Wow! Didn't expect that. If it weren't for it's outstanding track record, I'd call this an outlier. It looks like it'll be anyone's game. The question is whether these new voters will turn out or not.

Posted by Mike | December 31, 2007 10:11 PM

Yes. Will those independants really take the time to change their affiliation and vote ? As much as I want to believe it, color me skeptical for now.
BUT the poll itself may create its own momentum. Democrats who see how independants like Obama may end up breaking in his favor (in regard to general election potential).

Posted by Benjamin | December 31, 2007 10:13 PM

Nice.

I hope there are plenty of those party-affiliation-change cards available at all the caucus sites.

Posted by lampwick | December 31, 2007 10:15 PM

Either an outlier or they're on crack. Can pollster.com's trend analyses be so far off?

Posted by ChrisK | December 31, 2007 10:23 PM

It seems to be a bad sample. 60% first time caucus goers and 45% independents. It seems very unlikely that that will be the demographic of caucusgoers on Thursday.

Posted by R.E.L Seite | December 31, 2007 10:29 PM

ChrisK: What I got from this is that a lot of Independents and Republicans are planning to cross over and vote in the Democratic Caucus which they can do simply by changing registration at the door. The polls wouldn't capture that fact.

Posted by Rhoda | December 31, 2007 10:30 PM

Well, go McCain!!

If comes in 3rd, good for him.

I don't think the Dem Race is like that. I think they're all even.

Posted by rikyrah | December 31, 2007 10:38 PM

Even if Edwards follows Yepsen: he still comes in third under all the screens and Obama trails Hillary by two or three points which can be made up for in a ground game and with a fraction of Independent or Repbulican support actually arriving.

It doesn't look good for Edwards any way you slice it, really.

But Obama is going to have to close hard: they're going to throw the kitchen sink at him the next three days.

Posted by Rhoda | December 31, 2007 10:41 PM

Yes. Will those independants really take the time to change their affiliation and vote ? As much as I want to believe it, color me skeptical for now.
It's not hard All you have to do is show up at the correct polling place. Iowa makes it as easy as possible for the voter; all they ask is that you show up..that's the hardest thing to do on Caucus night.

Posted by rikyrah | December 31, 2007 10:42 PM

Here's one idea: maybe all the other polls over the holidays showed obama down because of who tends to be home over the holidays. According to the Register's breakdown, Hillary's supporters are more poor and less educated and therefore perhaps less likely to be traveling and more likely to be home to receive the pollsters call. Vice versa for Obama.

Posted by nathan | December 31, 2007 10:50 PM

All, please do not buy this. Register editorial board were chased by Clinton Attack Machine. This is a trap. The polls are to distract.

The winners in IA will be HRC/Her Majesty. Obama has no right, no right. Absolutely no right to prevent HRC from winning. She has a right. She is a Queen. Her husband is a king.

The Clintons are the most trusted, honest, righteous people on this planet. They do not lie, they do not cheat or have affairs. They do not break any moral codes. They are the true God's children.

Long live the Queen/King.

Support Obama. If Obama is not the nominee, then I will support McCain. I want him to demolish Clintons (husband/wife). Theme: Character and Integrity.

Posted by eorse | December 31, 2007 10:50 PM

Didn't Vilsack himself say that the great part about the caucus is that it helped to grow the party. Now it seems that the line coming from the Clinton camp is that they don't want you to caucus unless you are a Clinton democrat. Really they should be excited that so many independents want to vote for a Dem, instead of turning indies away....

Also on a side note please give chelsea a break; it's a free country, she is not under any obligation to speak to the press, she has spent her whole adolescent life in the fishbowl, leave her alone.

Posted by JC | January 1, 2008 4:45 AM