Iowa Will See McCain Once More

SALEM -- Sen. John McCain plans a final visit to Iowa before the caucuses, a campaign aide said today, sometime between Christmas and New Years. Despite the surprise endorsement of the Des Moines Register, McCain and his aides aren't rethinking their decision to concentrate resources in New Hampshire and are more than happy to let Mike Huckabee beat Mitt Romney, softening him up for New Hampshire.

Comments

If Romney gets 'softened up' by a second-place finish in Iowa, what the hell is going to become of McCain after he finishes 6th (or possibly even 7th, behind Tancredo) in Iowa? I mean, expectations are one thing, but there is no way that McCain comes out of Iowa looking like a winner given his current standings and strategy...

Posted by bbartlog | December 18, 2007 12:52 PM

Despite never going to Iowa, McCain looks very strong in the general election there. A new poll released this morning shows McCain is the only Republican who would beat Hillary -- though not Obama, who runs much stronger than Clinton.

Posted by Dan | December 18, 2007 1:45 PM

Yes, in the *general* election McCain's positioning is excellent - he's a centrist who is well-regarded by a lot of people across the political spectrum. But first he has to get there, and right now it looks like people in Iowa are more excited about just about every other candidate. He just has to hope that people in NH don't read too much into a very poor showing in Iowa. He's certainly not going to be holding one of the 'three tickets out of Iowa' that people like to talk about.

Posted by bbartlog | December 18, 2007 1:58 PM

Hello, everyone-

It's understandable that there is skepticism about Senator McCain's ability to do well in Iowa. I was initially very surprised at the news that McCain was heading back to Iowa. According to Pollster.com, there has not been a single non-ARG poll that has shown McCain in double-digits since October - here's the link to the Iowa caucus polls on the Republican side:

http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Rep-Pres-Primary.php

However, I believe the main reason why the campaign has decided to do this is the fact that everyone other than Huckabee (and to a lesser extent, Ron Paul) is dropping there. If you look at the most recent polling there, McCain has stayed in place (not very high, somewhere between 5-7% in the last seven polls.)

However, Rudy and Fred have also seen their support erode. If you look at the last three polls, McCain is in a statistical tie with Fred and Paul in all three, and with Rudy in two of the three. Like McCain, Fred and Rudy did not participate in the Ames straw poll and do not have strong organizations in the state.

Accordingly, it seems that the McCain campaign is thinking that a third-place finish in Iowa might be feasible, particularly if they concentrate their resources on the eastern half of the state.

Thoughts?

Posted by ElectionNightHQ.com Publisher | December 18, 2007 5:49 PM

Hello-

I've extended the observations in the above comment in this post:

http://blog.electionnighthq.com/2007/12/18/the-atlantics-ambinder-iowa-will-see-mccain-once-more/

Reactions are welcome.

Posted by ElectionNightHQ.com Publisher | December 18, 2007 7:34 PM