O!

HY VEE HALL, DES MOINES -- 1300. It's the number that best explains the maximal effect that Oprah Winfrey's appearance here with Barack Obama will have on the Iowa caucuses.

Between the day three weeks ago when the Winfrey-a-thon was announced and today, the Obama campaign signed up more than 1300 new volunteers directly through the media of pre-Oprah publicity.

And the second number to keep in mind is the roughly 12,000 new names and e-mail addresses that the Obama campaign obtained in the Des Moines area alone in exchange for tickets. Many were Republicans and were curious. (At least one was Australian and thus ineligible to vote.)

The massive amount of media attention was almost tertiary, although every network evening newscast has done at least two stories about the campaign stops during the past two days.

As Oprah Winfrey introduced Obama, his chief strategist David Axelrod stood on the press riser, beaming. Paul Tewes, Obama's Iowa state director, stood behind the risers, pacing.

“Despite the speculation and the hype, I understand the difference between a book club and free refrigerators,” Oprah began, “I understand the difference between that and this critical moment in our nation’s history.”

A few minutes later: "I'm here to tell you Iowa, he's the one."

18,500 people went wild.

I asked one of Obama's senior advisers whether he was surprised that the Clinton campaign had tried to bracket the doubles Os by bringing Chelsea Clinton to Iowa this weekend.

"Nah. It's kind of like bringing a knife to a bazooka fight."

Comments

I'm curious Marc. Does 18,500 mean the hall was SOLD OUT?

Posted by Michael's Mom | December 8, 2007 7:14 PM

I guess it was, Michael's Mom :)

LOL!

Quote of the Day: "Trust, but Verify!"

Posted by Wayne | December 8, 2007 7:33 PM

They passed out 23000 tickets. 18500 showed up. What is the clinton supporter percentage who asked for tickets to be devious? I don't know.

But 18500 divided by the 120,000 who caucused in 2004 is 15% of the voters in Iowa. Not to mention the rally tonight with 10000 more people.

The kool-aid drinkers don't matter, it is the people who Obama is trying to speak to, 50 year old women, or Hillary's base, that matter.

I particularly liked the "I am releasing my kindergarten papers tomorrow" line. If Obama wins the nomination, I think everything gets traced back to the JJ dinner. It almost seems like he was waiting for his moment, biding his time while Hillary flew high.

Posted by sumofallfears | December 8, 2007 7:37 PM

^^^^^
I support your views Sumo...where are all those numbers trumpetting Clinton's inevitability. All throughout the summer and the fall...Axelrod was just bidding his time I guess.

Posted by sumo restler | December 8, 2007 8:55 PM

Or kindergate--i would hate to read the reruns of this in 8 years,"but it was when Senator Clinton started asking questions about some statements Senator Obama had made when he was 5 that her campaign began to lose steam."

Posted by JC | December 8, 2007 10:58 PM

who would have ever thought that the clintons would bring down themselves? I would have guessed the GOP, or another scandal, but for them to willfully make these choices is astounding and scary if she actually wins.

Posted by sumofallfears | December 9, 2007 12:11 AM

I usually dismiss claims that the Clinton's are deep-dyed liars, but the campaign denied today that Chelsea and Mom's appearance today had anything to do with Oprah being in town.

Give me a fuqueing break!

Posted by lampwick | December 9, 2007 12:24 AM

I don't know how to quantify the Oprah effect. But obviously being the big thing in Iowa today is a good thing for the Obama campaign. Its perfect timing, because we'll hit a holiday timeout a couple weeks. Basically the race is down to this weekend, next week, and then a few frantic days after New Year's.

My guess is Edwards still wins Iowa, but Obama could surge ahead.

On Clinton doing herself in, sumofallfears, I think she made a couple key mistakes in this run.

One was the 'inevitability' idea, because it set up expectations that couldn't be achieved if this race, like most, tightened down the stretch. Campaigns are like earnings reports. You can lose money for any given quarter, but you never want to undercut expectations.

The other was starting too early. The woman has nothing to say, and tries to control the press. Both attributes really irritate the press. So, after putting up with it for 10 months or so, journalists were building up a lot of grudges, just waiting for the first stumble. Plus, she just doesn't wear well with most voters, I don't think. The more people see her, the worse she'll do. So starting in January probably wasn't the way to go.

Posted by Paul | December 9, 2007 12:29 AM

Seems safe to say that Obama has won the media primary. Now if the voters don't want to go along? We'll know that after Jan 3 though.

Posted by RalphB | December 9, 2007 12:51 AM

I suspect historians would currently focus on the stark contrast between the J-J speech and Kindergate, not just one or the other, to explain the favorable dynamic in Iowa for Obama.

But there is time yet for all that to change, although it is reasonable to suggest that time probably must come before the holidays. Hence I agree with Paul: even if Oprah did absolutely nothing directly for Obama, at this point every day that goes by without something happening to change the fundamental narrative is a good day for the Obama campaign in Iowa.

Posted by DTM | December 9, 2007 12:25 PM

It is the time for new and best ideas.It is the moment for a simple man like Obama.

Posted by Rafael Paiva | December 9, 2007 1:09 PM

I was there as one of the curious and thoughtful rather than one of the committed and active, so I have some notes to make about the statistics of 23000 tickets distributed to 18500 attendees and the overall outcome and significance of the rally.

Firstly, please do keep in mind that the weather was uncooperative for this event, which was planned from further in advance than the range of current weather forecasting accuracy. It was snowing constantly, which made the Des Moines streets slippery and the roads outside the metro potentially dangerous in many varied ways. The cold and wind didn't help much either, and I cheered when Oprah remarked that we must love America to come out in that kind of weather. Ohhhhhh, yeah! That made a positive opening impression, all right, and first impressions matter when people are deciding whether to listen or give up on listening.

I drove to and from Des Moines and had quite a few tricky moments behind the wheel. I could easily have gotten myself into a serious accident, maybe even a deadly one, and so could any of the other attendees. Fortunately Iowa's drivers do have the sense to actually slow down and pay more attention when traveling in bad weather. Now, the idea of looking out for each other as well as ourselves carries a lot of weight with Iowans who know how to handle risky conditions. Oprah's message of people uniting in action while both hoping and working for the best possible all-around outcome, particularly when the stakes are high and failure is disastrous ... well, it's a message that naturally resonates strongly with these Iowans. Also, the fact that 18500 out of 23000 chose to take risks in scary conditions to come see Obama and Oprah in person, and really liked what they saw when they took a big chance on giving somebody else a chance at all -- now, that sends a powerful signal, and I can see by the commentary that some of America is picking up on that signal.

I say all this as a wavering voter rather than an avid supporter or campaign volunteer, new or longstanding. I was recruited by one such volunteer who gave me a ticket for myself and one for someone else of my own choosing. I chose a good friend who was also undecided but interested. We both left feeling pretty darn impressed all around, still undecided, and in search of more information to examine about Obama's policies. In light of Oprah's challenge to think and then take action, my friend and I are going to think about WHY the details Obama's stances might differ from other candidates' details, keeping Oprah and Obama's message of finding common ground across America and across humanity in mind.

Fired up and ready to go is a fine thing, and can potentially accomplish great things. Another very good thing is being open to look into new possibilities. I don't mistake either position for the other, and neither should Obama's naysayers who issue shallow and slanderous comments on his growing support base. If you disagree with Obama, that's fine, but please make a little effort to disagree thoughtfully, respectfully, and constructively if you want his fanbase to take your words as seriously as they're taking his and Oprah's. Otherwise you are just making America look ridiculous to those inside and outside of America who are also paying attention and getting the bigger picture.

Posted by Karen | December 10, 2007 9:46 AM