There's no question that Ron Paul has tapped into a unique, hitherto hidden vein in the Republican body politic, and it's proved quite lucrative: he says he's raised $16M this quarter and pulled in a record $6.6M in a single day.
He's spending the money on television ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, radio ads, and, if you're driving through Iowa these days, ubiquitous billboards.
The challenge he'll face from us MSMers is simple: so far, he's proven that he resonates with a vocal minority of Republican primary voters -- a smaller minority than, say, the 40% of evangelicals in Iowa who are sustaining Mike Huckabee's rise, and the 20% of McCainiacs in New Hampshire.
It might not seem fair, but in the projective calculus of the Republican nomination, the ability to put together a broad coalition of voters is a necessary limit. This is harder than it sounds: "Ron Paul is pro-life and so he'll get pro-lifers when they tire of Huckabee" -- that's the start of the argument, not its end.
What's great, in one sense, about the Ron Paul phenom is that we don't know where it's going to end. We don't know how it's going to scramble the order of finish in the early states. And while we don't think Paul is going to win the nomination, we dismiss his impact at our peril.


For the umpteenth time, how can we trust the polls that are based on 2004 GOP primary voters, the hard core Bush supporters (unopposed) who have land lines? They say Republicans aren't that passionate this year and I think that's true, except Ron Paul supporters will brave snow and ice to vote for him? How come no one else has any signs or bumper stickers? Could it be that they only sorta kinda support Huckabee or Romney or McCain? The polls have shifted a lot so it seems clear the support is not that strong or it would hold for longer than a couple weeks at a time. Ron Paul's support in traditional polls continue to rise albeit small, but his support outside those traditional polls is far greater than all other GOP candidates combined. I think January will put the polls to bed, finally. They mean nothing in 08. Maybe in past years, but this is different.
Posted by Nick | December 17, 2007 9:28 AM