The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll

.... is out at 9pm CT, 10pm ET.

Comments

This may be a bit unrealistic for me to even suggest, but I think the media ought to take seriously what Dan Balz wrote today on his blog when deciding how to shape conventional wisdom on the basis of the DMR poll, which while historically accurate, has never had to contend with conducting polling during the holidays, a known confounder of all polling.

"The campaigns are drowning in data but no one is certain about where the Democratic race is heading. Everyone here awaits the release of the Des Moines Register's final poll, which historically has been accurate in the order of finish, if not always the margins between the candidates.

But polling here is more treacherous than ever. Christmas interrupted opportunities to poll early last week. The weekend is never a good time to poll and particularly difficult between Christmas and New Year's. And the last days of the caucus campaign will be overtaken by celebrations ringing in the election year.

Beyond that, Iowans have stopped answering their phones. One Democrat estimated that proven caucusgoers are getting as many as 15 telephone calls a night from campaigns and pollsters. A young man I spoke to on Sunday night, who said he has attended more than 50 candidate events over the past year, said he gets about half a dozen each evening. Conditions for polling, as a result, couldn't be worse."

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/12/31/a_diligent_clinton_keeps_her_h.html

Posted by RKA | December 31, 2007 8:59 PM