The Forecast For January 3 in Iowa: Clear

(so far).

That's probably good for HRC -- easier to turn out those old ladies that way. I'm not being mean -- she has to turn out a lot of little old ladies. And probably good for Barack Obama -- easier to turn folks out, generally, when the weather is nice. And if nice weather = higher turnout, then it's probably good for Mitt Romney, too. But also for Mike Huckabee, if he's relying on a lot of first-time caucus goers.

Thank goodness we're not in 1971: on January 3, 13 inches of snow fell. Last year, and the year before, the weather was clear and mild.

Comments

So who is Good weather REALLY good for....

HRC or Obama....

Mike or Mitt....

Come On, how about calling it one way or the other....

Posted by Abe | December 27, 2007 11:40 AM

Once again we see how the media repeats its own conventional wisdom in defiance of all logic.

Overall turnout is not the issue. If Clinton, or Obama, turn out larger numbers in precincts where they are already strong, its wasted effort.

If, on the other hand, there is a larger turnout in the urban precincts, it could well mean that the via bility thresholds are higher which means supporters of lower-tier candidates might be more likely to go to their second choice.

Now, which candidate benefits from that is uncertain, but its most likely not going to be Clinton and less likely to be Obama based on what we know about statewide second choice preferences.

But the point is that if there is higher than 04 turnout in urban areas, that could very well help Edwards more than any other candidate because supporters of third-tier candidates who do attend are more likely to have to join his groups.

Posted by Gus | December 27, 2007 11:57 AM

There is one week before the Iowa Caucaus. I would make a suggestion that anyone that loves to read get a copy of "The Great Upheaval: America and the Birth of the Modern World, 1788-1800
by Jay Winik" and review the course of America. I am in awe at how in sink Mitt Romney is with the Founding Fathers of this nation. I am amazed that he has been attacked in many similar ways that they were. Mitt Romney is one of those rare and genuine finds and Americans need to review their history to find leaders like Washington, Adams, Jefferson,& Lincoln. Mitt Romney is such a leader

Posted by Wendy73 | December 28, 2007 11:15 AM