Well I will. HRC and Obama are essentially tied; McCain is within 7 points of Romney.
It's an orange to everyone's apple. Now -- I happen to like both fruits just fine, although I'm a plum guy myself, but NH poll that Gallup just conducted has to stand by itself. It's based on the firm's very famous (or controversial) likely voter model, which asks respondents to answer questions, which are then scored along an 8 point probability scale.
As Mark Blumenthal notes:
Because the built in penalty for those who were not old enough to have voted in previous elections Gallup gives extra points to those age 18-21. They also give an extra point to those who did not live in New Hampshire in 2006 but say they "always" or "nearly always" vote.
What's good about this model is that it seems to work well right before an election, perhaps more accurately capturing individual voter intensity when everyone is paying attention. And we're pretty close to an election.
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My thoughts exactly Marc. And it's in line with their trend lines for NH, if you've checked that out (just like the NH-Dem link on the right side of their blog page), which shows Obama rising steeply and Hillary falling precipitously.
Chances are, the recent spate of Hillary-favored polls were statistical aberration (based on, perhaps, weekend bias, or the snowstorm they had up there...
Posted by Michael | December 21, 2007 12:24 PM