I was tempted to call this encounter a draw but I am mindful that there are no zero sum debates in presidential politics.
And twenty minutes of Iraq happened. And so I’ll give Obama the edge. Clinton was forced, for about 20 minutes, to recapitulate her vote on Iraq, over and over again. It was tough for her. She seemed to mire herself in the details of history.
Obama came into the debate moving up in polls across the country. His presence was, for the first 45 minutes or so, commanding. His opening statement was pitch perfect, segueing from praise for his rivals to the heart of his message. He ably made his case that this is a change election and the trajectory of change is steeper with Obama. His late-in-the-debate answer on Iraq was much better than hers.
Around 50 minutes in, the momentum swung towards Clinton. Obama was put on the defensive by Wolf Blitzer, who tried to goad him into calling Hillary Clinton unprincipled. Clinton, ah, found her voice, managing to show sympathy for undocumented workers and simultaneously pointing out how she took the effects of illegal immigration more seriously than Barack Obama. Clinton, in seeking a bipartisan solution, sounded more like Obama than Obama. Clinton’s answer plays well everywhere: among Latinos in California to conservative whites in Oklahoma.
I think Clinton’s goal tonight was to essentially humble herself before the Democratic Party that rebuked her so profoundly in South Carolina. Substance and niceness and graciousness were the order of the day. By her own standards she succeeded. She still doesn’t have a good answer to the dynasty question. I hear it a lot from voters on the trail. “We are all judged on our own merits” is a tautology.
Surprise: the time limits helped both Clinton and Obama. She had the time to turn every question back to her credentials and her projection of a humble, expansive, gracious character… she had the time to showcase her unmatched policy depth. Obama, who often chafes at soundbite answers, was able to speak in paragraphs and parentheticals and not have it count against him.
A few thoughts:
**Clinton mentioned John Edwards thrice, Obama mentioned him twice, but he also mentioned Bill Richardson, so, they’re equal.
** Also: Someone seemed to have planted the idea in Obama’s mind that he ought to start taking on John McCain, which he did, effectively.
** Obama really gives a great answer on the war, talking about the mindset differences between himself and Clinton and stressing the need for a date certain. He’s found a way to create daylight between himself and Clinton on withdrawing from Iraq.
** Watching the debate from the perspective of a Democrat, it’s easy to see why the party is so enthusiastic about its two candidate finalists.
I'll be Twittering tonight's debate, and can follow along right here.
Subjects that I hope Wolf Blitzer will ask about:
(a) Bill Clinton's sketchy Kazakhstan uranium / donor deal...as reported by the New York Times and given a full story by the producers of NBC Nightly News.
(b) Barack Obama's support for legalizing marijuana...or least reports that he once favored that position.
(c) Obama's being labeled the most liberal senator by National Journal
(d) HRC on South Carolina and Ted Kennedy
Going To Hollywood
It's like the Oscars, less the writers, the movies, the pageantry, the actors, the actresses, the directors, John Williams... ok, it's nothing like the Oscars. But the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood is a hell of a place to hold the final primary debate of the cycle.
Security is tight as a tick. Closed-off roads, FBI explosives experts, members of the Secret Service Uniformed Divisions, an LAPD airship, Dozens of armed guards and a platoon of police officers.
Thousands of cheering Obama supporters are packed on the sidewalk between Hollywood Boulevard and the theatre complex. CNN has set up giant screens outside so the fans can watch. Clinton supporters are outnumbered.
National Journal: Obama's The Most Liberal Senator
Contacted on January 30 to respond to Obama's scores in NJ's vote ratings, his campaign said that the liberal ranking belies the public support he has been receiving. "As Senator Obama travels across the country, and as we've seen in the early contests, he's the one candidate who's shown the ability to appeal to Republicans and the ability to appeal to independents," said campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki.
But she also said that it's important to note the differences between Obama and Clinton on key issues. "The Democratic Party needs to nominate someone who shows a clear contrast with where Republicans are, on issues like the war in Iraq and the economy and the influence of lobbyists on Washington," Psaki said. "One of the reasons he's received such strong support is because he's drawn the starkest contrast on those issues."
Asked whether the liberal ranking could be used against Obama in the campaign, Psaki said that voters appreciate that he is up front about his positions on issues, even if those positions don't line up with their own. "Part of the reason he's appealing to some Republicans and independents is, he has that authenticity," she said. "He's very clear from the beginning that we can't do this alone and we need to work across party lines and focus more on uniting than on dividing."
Asked about Clinton's relatively moderate placement in NJ's rankings, one of her campaign advisers responded, "Her voting record as a whole shows she takes a comprehensive, balanced approach toward policy. Senator Clinton looks at the broader picture. She tries to see the challenges from not only the blue-collar worker's face, but also the white-collar worker's, not only Wall Street but also Main Street, and from that tries to put together a policy that's best for America as a whole."
Robert Gibbs, Obama's communications director, said he doesn't put too much significance in the rankings and has several complaints about methodology. One is that Obama was scored negatively -- i.e, his non-liberal ratings did not rise -- for votes he did not participate in. Another, Gibbs said, is that the magazine ascribes any vote on Iraq that somehow opposed the war as "liberal." And he wonders why Obama's proposal to create an independent ethics oversight office was scored as liberal even though cosponsors included Mary Landreiu, a moderate Dem from Louisiana, and Lindsey Graham, that raging..conservative...from South Carolina.
Mitt Romney's Feb. 5 Strategy
Mitt Romney's advisers now have their final blitz mapped out. Confront McCain squarely on his past record. Play up, subtly, the generational differences between the two candidates. Put the fear of God in activists. “We’ll fight for another week and hope the conservatives realize they have to come together or have McCain as their nominee."
The strategy eschews big states and concentrates on smaller states where the delegate selection processes favor conservatives. They include Colorado, a caucus state, West Virginia, Alaska (which is why Romney mentioned McCain's support for ANWR drilling last night), and Oklahoma and Georgia, two states where delegates can be extracted from congressional districts.
The goal is to minimize the delegate gulf between McCain and Romney headed out of Feb 5 and give Romney a pretext to continue to campaign if McCain suddenly falters.
Romney's chief strategist, Alex Gage, writes in a memo obtained by this column that only a small shift among conservatives in many states could swing a whole lot of momentum towards Romney.
As we move towards February 5th, it’s worth taking a close look back at exit polling from the past few primaries. The coalitions that John McCain assembled in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida have been strikingly similar—and are strikingly tenuous. Public polling shows McCain ahead in many states, but we are now in a two-man race and a few points’ movement among conservatives is all that’s needed to tip the scales in favor of Gov. Romney.
In all three states where he was victorious, McCain’s margin of victory rested on moderates, self identified independents, and voters who disapprove of the Bush administration. None of these
groups is a majority of the Republican electorate. In fact, every GOP primary this year has been
at least 55% conservative, 61% Republican, and 50% supportive of the Bush administration—
explaining why McCain has failed to win more than 36% of the vote in any of them.
The McCain formula for success worked in a divided field when conservatives was fractured, but
even a small coalescence of conservatives around Gov. Romney would reveal his
support as a coalition too small to win the nomination of the Republican party.
Conservatives, self-identified Republicans, and voters who approve of President Bush are likely to be majorities of the electorate in all of the February 5th states. It is therefore easy to see how
we defeat McCain in a two-main race by focusing on traditional Republican primary voters.
We still have an uphill battle in front of us—the mainstream media is ready to anoint John McCain and he will have advantages in many states from running for president for the past eight years— but Gov. Romney has a clear path to victory on February 5th and beyond.
Other Campaign Finance Nuggets
** Barack Obama raised $32 million in January... and managed to find 170,000 new donors. That's a jaw dropping figure. The silence from the Clinton campaign suggests that they haven't raised that much, or from nearly that many people. More evidence that Obama has cracked the movement-building code.
** Rudy Giuliani ended 2007 with a little more than $11 on hand -- not as dire as one would have assumed.
The Little Campaign That Could
One of the more amazing things I've witnessed this cycle is how John McCain was able to run his campaign on the fumes of fumes, on only earned and free media, and still manage to find himself the unambiguous frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
McCain adviser Charlie Black credits campaign manager Rick Davis, who laid down an order: no matter how much money came in, marginally less than out was coming out. A number of key advisers, including McCain wordsmith/alter ego Mark Salter, worked without salaries for months. Even as their political fortunes improved, the campaign didn't go on a hiring binge.
According to the FEC, even with McCain's loan (collateralized on the campaign, and not on money from federal matching funds), he ended the year with only $3M on hand.
That money was gone by New Hampshire.
Since then, he's raised and spent about $9M, including more than 1 million over the past week off the internet.
Though fundraising commitments are soaring, the McCain campaign wears their pecuniary problems as a badge of honor: they found a way to secure the Republican nomination on the cheap without taking money from the government.
Obama Mailer Hits Clinton On War Vote
An oldie but goodie. In Connecticut, Democrats are receiving this direct mail piece from Barack Obama's presidential campaign. (The poor quality of this copy can be blamed on a fax machine).
Denial (December 31, 2007): Duncan Hunter has a chance.
Anger (after Iowa): If Huckabee gets the nomination, I'll just stay home. The GOP is doomed.
Bargaining (after South Carolina): Please Fred, stay in the race till Super Tuesday.
Depression (after Florida): This is the field we have left to choose from? Why can't we have a conservative choice?
Acceptance (today): Next Tuesday, I'll hold my nose and vote for John McCain. He's better than Hillary.
Schwarzenneger's Popularity
According to a private survey conducted for Arnold Schwarzenneger's political advisers, the governor has an 81% approval rating among Republicans in California -- evidence that his endorsement of Sen. John McCain today will help with the right crowd.
HRC White House Schedules Turned Over For Review
10,000 Clinton administration documents from 24 months of FOIA requests are due to be turned over to representatives for former President Clinton today.
Currently about one half of one percent of the 78 million archived documents are available – about 300,000 of out of 78,000,000.
The documents available today are said to include Hillary Clinton’s daily schedules in the White House.
A Clinton aide said last night that the records have yet to be turned over. “When the records arrive, they'll be reviewed,” the aide said. The statute allows for a 30 day inspection period, but that can be extended if the reviewer needs more time.
Clinton's aides insist that Clinton has given the least restrictive instructions to the National Archive of any president during the modern period.
Anti-McCain Ads On Fox News
David Bossie's Citizens United is running this ad on Fox News .....
"There hasn't been an ad that compelling since the Juice-o-matic 9000 advertising on Channel 382," said Steve Schmidt, a McCain adviser.
Fallows On The State Of The Union
Believe it or not, we at the Atlantic are not required to plug James Fallows' annual State of the Union annotation. There's a little peer pressure, yes -- but mostly, all of us Atlantic Voices decided to link to it because it's enlightening and entertaining.
McCain Bus Passes Romney Bus On The 405...
According to eyewitnesses, the Straight Talk Express sped past Mitt Romney's campaign cavalcade on the 405 freeway tonight....
Just saying.
Both Romney and McCain entourages are staying at the Beverly Hilton, although Romney and family are sleeping in a Marriott property in Simi Valley.
January 30, 2008
The Debate: First Reactions
First reactions are almost always off, but we react, then we write. So here goes:
Romney ceded the debate to McCain at the beginning when he acknowledged that McCain’s record was that of a mainstream conservative, albeit with some caveats. Astonishing – the only way Romney will win on Feb 5 is if a groundswell of grassroots conservative opposition to McCain. Romney pointed out some apostasies, but he did not make a sustained argument that McCain was not sufficiently conservative.
There’s no question that Romney got in his talking points, but early on he did not extend them with energy or zest; he seemed resigned and somber; he matched McCain’s tone, rather than leading McCain into the wilderness of anger or confrontation. Romney never pressed McCain on McCain’s dodges, like on the Bush tax cuts. There was no follow through…nothing to cue the voters that they had just seen something important.
McCain seems to have spent virtually all his debate prep time on the economy. For the first time in a debate – and during the last, most important debate – he matched Romney on breadth of knowledge and exceeded him at projecting sympathy. He knew the buzz words , he knew the status of legislation, he talked ably about interplay between the foreign and domestic economies.
Yes, Romney got in a few zingers – the point about McCain and dirty tricks being one of them. But McCain’s rebuttal was effective, and in any event, McCain knows this subject like the back of his hand, and he’s able to argue circles around Romney, who tried to argue from a point of personal procedures. Also: the issue is so complex that the “right” answer wasn’t evident – certainly not to the average viewer.
Off to the spin room....
Debate Wire
09:28: Is Romney capable of being Commander in Chief? McCain cites Romney's business experience...: "He bought and he sold and sometimes people lost their jobs and that's the nature of that business...but we're at the time in our history where you can't afford any on-the-job training..."
09:28: Romney gives a strong answer that weaves together his experience with his resume...notes that ABe Lincoln wasn't a military leader...
09:26: Romney actually said he was commander-in-chief of National Guard... true, but...he's sitting next to John Sidney McCain!
09:25: Romney says he'd the better leader on the economy.,..as people "over the centuries" have considered who'd lead the country, "they look to leaders." "You've got to have something who's actually done some work in the private economy and understand how it works..."
09:24: McCain is asked about the economy but instead talks about wars.... talks about his history with Reagan... "as we fought these wars together with unshakable courage and principles."
09:23: McCain has his Somber Reagan Voice down pat.
09:23: Press room starts to talk among themselves when Romney is speaking.
09:22: Romney goes all wonky when talking about Putin; Huck's simpler answer was stronger.
09:21: You can imagine McCain's brain trust sitting behind a VP table grading Huckabee's every answer.
09:20 When Huck looks at Pres. Putin, what does he see? "I don't know if I can read people's souls...their eyes can lie, their actions don't..." cites Ronald Reagan's "peace through strength: line.
Debate Wire
09:16: Ron Paul got some applause for talking about "these silly arguments."
09:15: When McCain calls Romney "my friend," he really means: "You little @#*(@#*(."
09:14: Citing the media to defend a point in a Republican debate won't work.
09:13: W. Mitt Obama: this is a tactic of old-Washington. Romney: "The Washington Post gave you three Pinocchio's for it.... "
09:12 Romney's again arguing a process point: "He's never raised issue with me."
09:11: Romney's on the defensive...looks angry and upset...
09:10: Romney's arguing a point of personal procedure... McCain knows so much about Iraq that it;'s hard for Romney to respond substantively.
09:08: A very angry Mitt Romney: "How is it that you're an expert on my position?" McCain: "I am expert on this."
09:07: McCain: "Of course he wanted a timetable." McCain notes that Romney in Dec of '06 said he wouldn't weigh in on the surge because he was a governor.
09:06: Applause from audience when Romney says Reagan would have found the dirty tricks reprehensible.
09:05: Even if McCain is stretching to make a point, if we're talking about Iraq, he makes the points better than anyone else.
09:04: Romney: "Absolutely, unequivocally, absolutely no. I have never, ever supported a specific timetable for exit from Iraq." Points out that CNN's own analyst who said it was a lie.
08:52: Challenged with Reagan's own words about Sandra Day O'Connor, Mike Huckabee said;l "I'm not going to come to the Reagan library and say anything about Ronald Reagan's decisions. I'm not that stupid."
Paul says he wouldn't have appointed her. Sen. McCain: "I'm proud of Sandra Day O'Connor..." Romney: "I like justices that follow the constitution rather than make laws from the bench. I would have rather had justices of that nature."
08:48: Janet Hook, who has the voice of Dr. Laura (a compliment, I assure you), asks McCain whether if, his original proposal came to the floor, he'd vote for it? "I would not." Says it wouldn't come to the floor. McCain: "Everyone knows we're in agreement. The American people want the border secure first."
Debate Wire
08:47: Romney: "no special pathway."
08:46: Vande...challenges Romney on how he's deport immigrants.
08:45: Immigration comes up. In earlier debates, it came up earlier.
08:43: Romney: "The Bush revolution...suggested that we needed a tax cut... RR would have said sign in...and Sen. McCain was one of two who did not."
08:42: "I'm proud of my record as a footsoldier in the Reagan revolution."
08:41: McCain is challenged on his different explanation for opposing the Bush tax cuts... "Actually, I think lower and middle and income deserve more help."
08:40 -- It's so windy up here on Reagan Hill. Mount Reagan. At the library. The spin room -- a big tent, basically -- is ripping apart. Scary.
08:38 -- CNN wants to try to challenge McCain on his economic knowledge... McCain must have done some boning up...he sounds very good....
08:37, So far, McCain has kept Romney on the defensive...and Romney hasn't managed to land too many punches... might be a function of the format. Update: actually, he did correct McCain on two factual points.
08:35: Huckabee cutely admits he was pandering a little when he was talking about I-95... says there might be a Western highway we oughta expand...
08:33: Sorry, I ignored Ron Paul.
08:29 -- Romney agrees, too. Says McCain's cap-n-trade plan is tantamount to tax.
08:28 -- McCain has like four minutes to give his global warming speech. CNN's producers not in Anderson's ear?
08:25: Asked about Arnold's emissions proposal (wants CA to be able to implement much tougher caps) -- does he side with governor or with the Bush Administration: "At some physical danger, I have to agree with the Governor. I'm a federalist. I believe the states should decide to an enormous degree what happens within those states, including off their coasts."
08:23: Romney asked about fines for not purchasing health care in Massachusetts. He gives his fairly compelling capsule history of his health care effort in Mass.
08:22: VandeHIGH .. HIGH.
08:21: Huckabee, asked about Rush: "I wish Rush loved me as much I loved Rush. It doesn't mean he's inerrant or infoulable."
Debate Wire
08:15: Romney asked about McCain following "liberal Democratic" course... doesn't he have a "mainstream conservative record?" -- Romney admits McCain is a good Republican. A number of instances, though: "opposed to drilling in ANWR -- (YAY -- ALASKA CAUCUSES) - co-author of McCain Feingold.. :"which took a whack at the first amendment and hurt our party..." -- author or amnesty bills, etc.
08:16: Romney: "If you get endorsed by the New York Times, then you're probably not a conservative." McCain points out that both Mass papers including the Herald (which, to be fair, HATED Romney), endorsed McCain.... McCain goes into litany about Romney's Mass's. record....
08:18: Romney wants to help McCain "will the facts." Corrects McCain about his misstatement about his LG. (McCain said Romney's LT G. endorsed McCain...) -- Romney: "During my term in office, we added jobs..." Romney acknowledges raising fees... but not as much as McCain had said.
08:20: Debating Massachusetts... kind of like we were doing one year ago. What happened to 2007?
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is likely to endorse Sen. John McCain before the California primary -- perhaps as early as tomorrow, Republican sources with direct knowledge of the endorsement said.
On CNN today, Schwarzenegger said he has nothing to announce "today" but would not speculate about tomorrow.
McCain and Schwarzenegger have spoken personally within the past few days, and aides are working out a time and location for the governor to give his benediction. The men share a set of issues, including climate change, and a pragmatism that often finds them at odds with their party.
McCain's schedule includes an unspecified Los Angeles political event on Wednesday.
Aides to McCain declined to comment, and an aide and adviser to Schwarzenegger did not respond to requests seeking comment.
The Endorsement
SIMI VALLEY -- They call each other "heroes." They believe that the pre-eminent challenge of our time is the fight against radical Islamic Jihad. They're both unorthodox Republicans; they both privately disdain Romney; they both are great friends. Their worldviews are sympatico. Had the leaden shoe of defeat been secured to John McCain's foot by Florida voters, it's likely that he would have endorsed Rudy Giuliani.
"When you run for president, you spend a lot of time thinking about the qualities you want in a chief executive." For Giuliani, those qualities are "someone who can be trusted in a time of crisis, someone with a clear vision of the challenges facing our nation."
"John McCain is the most qualified candidate to be the next commander in chief," Giuliani said. "He is an American hero. He is a man of honor and integrity. He's shown character throughout his life."
Repeatedly, Giuliani stressed the mutual detente that existed between he and McCain -- McCain ran no attack ads against him, and vice-versa. This was as close to a shot against Mitt Romney as Giuliani made. (There had been a rumor circulating that he would, in addition to dropping out and endorsing McCain, make a case against Mitt Romney.)
Giuliani looked somber but relieved, as if a burden had been lifted. His staff and his press corps describe him as being in good spirits and eager to return to private life.
Live From The Reagan Library
SIMI VALLEY -- In a few moments, Rudy Giuliani will endorse John McCain in.. well, the spin room, but don't read too much into that.
Talk to a Romney adviser this morning and they're likely to acknowledge the unprecedented luck that their candidate will need to block McCain's path to the nomination.
Here in Los Angeles, a radio listener flipping back and forth between the city’s two top AM radio stations yesterday morning found two of the country’s largest conservative megaphones, Rush Limbaugh and Michael Reagan, all but urging their listeners to revolt against McCain. The litany of their complaints begins with his long-time advocacy of campaign finance reform, seen by some conservatives as both an affront to free speech and the source of their party’s current financial deficits, to immigration, to judges, to his unwillingness to court conservatives like Limbaugh.
This morning, Rush tried to maintain his resolve, giving what he called a "non-concession speech:
Here is the bottom line, ladies and gentlemen. I think this is it. There was a lot of anxiety among a lot of conservatives about Senator McCain. It's simply indisputable. But there was no figure in our roster of candidates who rose up to challenge him or galvanize conservative support. All the candidates on our side, for various reasons, are uninspiring or worse -- and so, just as I predicted, the base has fractured. Some going here, some going there. Senator McCain's been able to cobble together enough votes to win in a few states. Fine. He deserves credit for that. But to pretend that Senator McCain is the choice of conservatives when exit poll data from every primary state show just the opposite... He is not the choice of conservatives, as opposed to the choice of the Republican establishment -- and that distinction is key.
We'll see.
A McCain adviser said that "Once Rush recognizes that the race will be between John and Hillary Clinton, he'll come around."
There hasn't been any outreach...yet.. the first goal McCain has to unify the party, and he recognizes that Feb. 5 is only the first step.
Super Tuesday Projection: 1/30
Based on polling and analysis and interviews with campaign officials.....
Hillary Clinton has an edge in New York, New Jersey, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Obama has an edge in Idaho, Minnesota, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and Illinois.
The following states lean to Clinton right now: California, Connecticut
The following entities lean Obama right now: Colorado, Democrats Abroad
True tossups: Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico, Utah, American Samoa, Alaska, Massachusetts
For Republicans, I'd say John McCain has a distinct edge in California, New York, New Jersey, Alabama, Massachusetts, Arizona, Connecticut and Tennessee.
Mitt Romney has an edge in Utah, Maine, Montana, Alaska, West Virginia.
Mike Huckabee used to be the governor of Arkansas.
And Missouri is a toss.
Edwards Drops Out
John Edwards will end his presidential bid today in the city that symbolizes the animating impulse behind his message, New Orleans.
His staff was notified of the decision early this morning. As of last night, spokesfolks denied "rumors."
Edwards will be joined on stage by Elizabeth Edwards and his three children.
After the speech, he and his staff will work together on a New Orleans Habitat for Humanity project.
He does not plan to endorse any presidential candidate in the near future, advisers said.
Advisers say he worries that Obama isn't ready to be president and that Hillary Clinton represents too much the old way of doing business... and both concerns weigh heavily.
By dropping out in NOLA, he hopes to force his rivals to take up the mantle of anti-poverty efforts that he began his race by talking about.
Clinton Certainly Felt Snubbed
Check out this Q and A from last night:
WALLACE: Finally, Senator Clinton, there was an incident last night at the State of the Union address that is getting a bit of attention. When you get into the hall – we’ll put the picture up -- you reached out -- Senator Kennedy and Senator Obama were standing side by side. Senator Kennedy shook your hand, and Senator Obama said he was looking to talk to somebody else. Some people are saying that he snubbed to you. Do you feel like you were snubbed you last night?
SEN. CLINTON: Well, Chris, I reached out my hand in friendship and unity and my hand is still reaching out. And I look forward to shaking his hand when I see him at the debate in California. But what is important here is that any differences between us as Democrats pale in comparison to the differences between us and the Republicans, and I think we will have a unified Democratic Party... We will come together, not only as a party, but as a country in this election year, and I am confident that we are going to present a very strong case to the American people as to why Democrats should once again be in the White House
Tweak...Obama buys in New York media market
(No doubt for New Jersey, but also a tweak to HRC in the city...)
The Media Covers "The Snub"
A Penn Memo On Florida
The big point in this is fundamentally correct: 1.5 million Florida Democrats cast ballots yesterday. Delegates -- no, but either they mean something or nothing.. and if they mean something, it means that, at the very least, there is a reason to think that Feb. 5 will be.. as competitive as we think it will be.
To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Re: A Significant Victory in Florida
Hillary Clinton won a significant victory today in the Florida primary with biggest turnout in Florida Democratic primary history. She will end up with more votes than John McCain, the winner of the Republican primary. And Floridians cast more votes than were cast in Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, and New Hampshire combined.
A large, broad, and diverse group of voters came out and voted for Hillary in Florida. She won women, men, and just about every age category. She won nearly 6 in 10 Latinos and nearly 3 in 10 African American voters.
The vote turned out to be far more than symbolic. Well over 1.5 million Democrats cast their ballots, more than twice the number of voters who came out to vote in the 2004 primary.
Most of the voters in Florida fully expect that their votes will not be wasted again -- they too have a voice at the convention, and Hillary has asked her delegates to support their being seated.
This result comes after Senator Obama ran TV commercials that reached Florida homes and after the enormous publicity he received for South Carolina and for the Ted Kennedy endorsement. The exit polls show widespread recognition of the endorsement -- but even so among those who decided on Election Day, a plurality of those chose Hillary.
But any momentum seemed to run out today -- among those who decided on Election Day, a plurality of those chose Hillary.
January 29, 2008
Obama Campaign Dismisses HRC's Florida "Victory"
“When Senator Clinton was campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, she said that states like Michigan and Florida that won’t award delegates, ‘don’t count for anything.’ Now that Senator Clinton has lost badly in South Carolina, she’s trying to assign meaning to a contest that awards zero delegates and where no campaigning has occurred. Senator Clinton’s own campaign has repeatedly said that this is a ‘contest for delegates’, and tonight, Florida awarded zero. Senator Obama is disappointed that Florida will have no role in selecting delegates for the Democratic nominee, but looks forward to competing and winning in Florida during the general election,” said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.
McCain Wins
Romney starts speech before Giuliani ends...
Giuliani prepares to end campaign and endorse McCain: discussions continuing among campaign officials about when and where... Giuliani will travel to California tomorrow...
McCain: "Thank you for bringing a former Florida resident across the finish line first....in, as I have been repeatedly reminded of lately, an all-Republican primary!"
"Thank you Rudy for all you have added to this race..."
"In one week, we have as close to a national primary as we've ever had in this country. I intend to win it and be the nominee of our party!"
"I enlisted in as a foot soldier in the revolution that he began. I am as proud today to be a conservative Republican as I was then."
Florida Primary Wire
McCain Wins
Romney starts speech before Giuliani ends...
Romney: "We're not going to change Washington by sending the same people back just to sit in different chairs."
Romney: "American needs a president in the White House who has actually had a job in the real economy."
At end of speech: "All you guys are family. Don't expect to be part of the inheritance. I'm not sure there's going to be much left after this."
Florida Primary Wire
McCain Wins
Tears up.... Rudy: "Finally, we need to re-establish very very clear, the Republican Party, Lincoln, Reagan, and the party of Bush, the Republican Party is a party that is and has been from the beginning, when we are on our game, when we're being our contributor, we are the party of freedom, we are the party of the people. And we're a big party. And we're getting bigger. I'm even this party. This is a big party."
Rudy: "I don't back down from a principled fight....elections are about a lot more than just candidates...elections are about fighting for a cause larger than ourselves..."
Rudy: "I want to congratulate each of my opponents on a hard fought campaign here in Florida...."
Rudy: "Win or lose, our work is not done. Leaders dream of a better future and they help to bring it into reality."
Rudy: "I'm proud that we chose to stay positive and run a campaign of ideas. We ran a campaign that was uplifting."
Rudy: "The ideas of our campaign...clearly identify the great challenges of our time...first, America needs to stay on offense to win the terrorist's war on us....the best way to achieve peace is through overwhelming strength."
Tears up.... Rudy: "Finally, we need to re-establish very very clear, the Republican Party, Lincoln, Reagan, and the party of Bush, the Republican Party is a party that is and has been from the beginning, when we are on our game, when we're being our contributor, we are the party of freedom, we are the party of the people. And we're a big party. And we're getting bigger. I'm even this party. This is a big party."
Dade Co reporting way earlier than usual...... Nothing in from Panhandle. Romney overperformed in Duval Co (Jacksonville)... 1-4 corridor is pretty even now...
Counties reporting in slowly: Broward, part of Palm Beach counties....Tampa area counties....
....Romney leading among Protestants...McCain winning about Catholics....McCain wins 50% of Cuban-Americans......
Clinton claims.. "Victory" -- 'This has been a record turnout because Floridians wanted their voices to be heard....I am thrilled to have this vote of confidence that you have given my today...."
Flordia Primary Wire
32% in.. McCain 34%, Romney 33%:, Rudy 15%, 10,000 vote margin....
McCain v. Romney
Dade Co reporting way earlier than usual...... Nothing in from Panhandle. Romney overperformed in Duval Co (Jacksonville)... 1-4 corridor is pretty even now...
CBS News exit polls: Crist's endorsement not seen as helping McCain....Hispanics make up 13$ of voters...McCain wins them 2 to 1 over Giuliani; Romney third.....six in ten primary voters are conservative...3 in ten are moderates...conservatives chose Romney by 40% to 27%.....McCain wins 41 to 19 among moderates...issues voters chose Romney by 36% to 24%...leadership quality voters chose McCain... McCain is seem as the most electable...McCain and Romney get 28% of white evangelicals; Romney gets 34%... But are exits screwy? 49% of voters say economy was top issue, but McCain wins plurality of them?
...
Economy is biggest issue again...
Waiting on Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade counties.....
Pandhandle voting could benefit McCain (veterans) or Romney (conservatives)
Heavy turnout among Hispanics...relatively...
Remember...early voting / asbentees already counted....should be in early..
Panhandle polls still open...
Fox News exit polls: Seniors 40 to 31, McCain.....TIED among veterans..50 to 26 McCain among Hispanics....Immigration as issue: Romney wins...Economy as issue, McCain wins...
...
HRC leading "Dems"; Obama campaign issues tongue in cheek statement: "Based on exit polling data our campaign is prepared to call the delegate count at 7 pm eastern." More: "Obama and Clinton tie for delegates in Florida. 0 for Obama, 0 for Clinton."
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McCain Robocall, Seen as Gay-Baiting, Is Pulled
A McCain campaign spokesperson says that a robocall accusing Gov. Mitt Romney of once favoring "special rights" for gay people is no longer in the campaign's rotation.
Snub This!
It acquired a name sometime between 6am and 12pm as I was flying across the country. What had begun with a photo appearing to show Barack Obama staring icily at an open-faced Hillary Clinton, and a second, turned away as she greeted Sen. Ted Kennedy, has turned into something called "The Snub."
In the age of visual information, brush asides become thinly sliced character studies. Hence, if you're an Obama supporter, he was politely responding to a question from Claire McCaskill and did not know that Sen. Clinton was eager to shake his hand. If you're an opponent, you saw the "real Obama" -- not the Jesus his staff portrays him to be, but an arrogant upstart for whom "New Politics" means the Politics of Me.
Let's stipulate that Obama, being familiar enough to find his way to Capitol Hill, presumably expected to encounter his presidential rival. Let us also presume that, despite his protestations, images and impressions often matter more than words, and so he might have been a bit more sensitive to his surroundings. But let us concede that to expect a presidential candidate to know when to turn and when to stay focused is appropriate only when Roger Goodman is in his ear. (And Roger Goodman was in New York City.)
Aside from that, everyone will see in The Snub what they like. The media, driven by a bias toward conflict, has already concluded what the Snub was, but they're pretending to ask the question anyway. To be fair, the vast majority of the press's first impressions were that it was a snub.
To reporters on his press plane, Obama said he really just didn't see Sen. Clinton intending to say hello to him and meant no disrespect. Earlier today, his chief strategist said that Obama had known Clinton was there but did not not want to get in the way of an awkward moment between Sen. Kennedy and Sen. Clinton.
Delegate Allocation: The California Example.
Over the next few days, I'm going to write quite a bit about the complexity facing Democratic campaign targeters over the next several days. It's akin to running 22 simultaneous presidential campaigns in 22 different counties where the winner is based not on the popular vote in the country but on the delegates selected by congressional districts.
So let's start by taking one such "country," like, say, California.
In some ways, it makes sense to concentrate resources in some areas and skip others.
Why?
Because some districts send an odd number of delegates to the national convention, campaigning there is more efficient than in districts allocating an even number of delegates.
Why?
Because even without campaigning or concentrated television ads, the split in most of the even districts is not likely to allocate more delegates to the winner than to the second place finisher, especially if the number of total delegates allocated is 4.
Each congressional district in California has between 3 and 7 delegates to give; a total of 241 pledged delegates. The popular vote statewide determines the allocation of an additional 81 delegates, and 48 more are PLEOs -- but forget about the PLEOs for now.
So it makes sense for each candidate to maximize turnout in the larger odd-delegate congressional districts, right?
Not necessarily.
In states like New York, where Hillary Clinton will almost certainly win, and Illinois, almost certainly an Obama state, it makes more sense for the candidates to target the smaller-delegate-allocating congressional districts because they can increase turnout to boost their statewide totals AND win extra delegates at the same time.
It's easier, in other words, to extract an additional delegate by winning a smaller, odd-delegate congressional district than by trying to winner a larger, odd-delegate congressional district.
A further layer of complication is demographic.
Even though some advisers concede that Hillary Clinton will probably win California, Barack Obama's campaign will heavily target a number of large-and-small, odd-and-even congressional districts in the Bay Area (think Oakland, Berkeley, Marin County) because Democrats there tend to be more educated and younger -- and black -- exactly the demographic profile Obama has used to success in earlier states. But wait -- if you're in charge of Obama's California spending, do you spent, say, $100,000 extra in the 6th Congressional District, which comprises Marin County and Somona County north of San Fransisco? It allocates an even number of delegates -- six. Unless there's a landslide, both Obama and Clinton will get 3, each.
Why not spend that money trying to beat Clinton in the 7th congressional district across the bay -- Solano County and parts of Contra Costa counties, where the congressman, George Miller, has already endorsed Obama? CD 7 allocated 5 delegates, an an extra effort there might give Obama one extra delegate.
A Reminder About GOP Absentees
As of yesterday, 301,024 Republicans had turned in absentee ballots in Florida and another 288, 025 had voted early.
Rudy Giuliani's campaign tried to collect absentees early -- before voting started. They were moderately successful, according to the campaign's tracking. Since Giuliani's core pool of supporters is said to overlap with McCain's, McCain is said to be at a disadvantage here.
Mitt Romney's campaign tried to collect absentees late. Initially, they hoped that Romney victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would boost their efforts. Whoops. BUT -- victories in Michigan and Nevada and Wyoming and Romney's enduring viability probably helped their collection.
Does A McCain Radio Ad Gaybait?
"Mitt Romney thinks he can fool us. He supported abortion on demand, even allowed a law mandating taxpayer-funding for abortion. He says he changed his mind, but he still hasn’t changed the law. He told gay organizers in Massachusetts he would be a stronger advocate for special rights than even Ted Kennedy. Now, it’s something different.
That's a McCain robo-call, confirmed by the campaign. Is this gay-baiting? Or making the point that Romney flip-flops on social issues?
Raising the specter of scary homosexuals and their "special rights" is a time-honored last-minute trick, and what qualifies for the label of 'gay-baiting -- a harsh label, to be sure -- is often in the eye of the beholder.
But about John McCain, a social conservative who opposes gay marriage, we've never had the occasion to ask the question before in the context of his presidential campaign.
Incidentally: it's not clear whether McCain ever personally approved the script.
Tonight: Clinton Parties In Florida
Note: polls close in Florida at 7...and 8. This event begins at 7.
Romney's Major Florida Advantage
Mitt Romney's had an 8 to 1 television ad advantage in Florida... part of the reason why he's made the competitive. Heck, most of the reason he's made the race competitive has been his ads.
According to Neilsen, he's run 4,475 ads compared to John McCain's 470 through 1/22.
McCain did not run a single ad until January; Romney ran more ads in September than McCain has run to date.
January 28, 2008
Sebelius To Appear With Obama Tomorrow
Word is that Gov. Kathleen Sebelius will endorse and campaign with Barack Obama tomorrow in Kansas.
Silence, For Now, From Al Gore
With Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama, the list of star-aligning endorsements shrinks to about two: former Sen. John Edwards, if he decides to drop out, and, of course, former Vice President Al Gore.
At this point, he has not told any of his political advisers and friends if he is considering an endorsement. During the past year, he has spoken privately with all three leading Democrats.
An adviser said that Mr. Gore had long ago decided to lay low once the Democratic delegate selection contests began so as not to interfere in the race.
Last night, a close adviser said "nothing has changed" with regard to Mr. Gore's decision to keep mum about an endorsement.
Whoa. The New York State chapter of the National Organization for Women attacked Ted Kennedy for his endorsement today with some real heat.. The Times Union reported it first (writing, "'Scathing' feels inadequate here."), and I confirmed its authenticity with the president of the organization, Marcia Pappas.
I started to pick out the most eyebrow-raising passages but, that proved kind of hard, so here's the whole thing:
“Women have just experienced the ultimate betrayal. Senator Kennedy’s endorsement of Hillary Clinton’s opponent in the Democratic presidential primary campaign has really hit women hard. Women have forgiven Kennedy, stuck up for him, stood by him, hushed the fact that he was late in his support of Title IX, the ERA, the Family Leave and Medical Act to name a few. Women have buried their anger that his support for the compromises in No Child Left Behind and the Medicare bogus drug benefit brought us the passage of these flawed bills. We have thanked him for his ardent support of many civil rights bills, BUT women are always waiting in the wings.
“And now the greatest betrayal! We are repaid with his abandonment! He’s picked the new guy over us. He’s joined the list of progressive white men who can’t or won’t handle the prospect of a woman president who is Hillary Clinton (they will of course say they support a woman president, just not “this” one).
:
Plouffe: Florida's A Non-Event
In a memo to reporters, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe accuses the Clinton campaign of seeking to divert the attention of the press by waving "shiny bubbles" in front of the .... shiny bubbles...oooh..... bubbles.... sorry... to "divert" focus from Obama to "non-events like Florida."
From Barack Obama's perspective, today's not only not the worst day that Antoin "Tony" Rezko could be arrested, it was the best of all possible days.
If this had happened tomorrow, the networks would have devoted a full story to it.
Today, it merits a VO -- a voice over, at best.
A Time Machine In Florida
SANFORD -- Step into the time machine, and we;re back in 2007, when Mitt Romney and John McCain are sparring over who can unify conservatives and who's a flip-flopper. Rudy Giuliani? A before-thought to the degree that today, he's an after-thought.
There was no comity left from which the final day of campaigning could further degenerate, and the charges, prosecuted today by both candidates at Sanford International Airport, were flying as fast and loose as a Lear Jet.
Romney called McCain "desperate" and accused him of making things up. He called him a "liberal" for working on an immigration compromise with a liberal Democrat like Joe Lieberman.
McCain expanded his attack on Romney's record in Massachusetts. "One thing I think we should really give Governor Romney credit for -- he is consistent," McCain said. "He has consistently taken both sides of any major issue. He has consistently flip-flopped on every issue."
On AM talk radio, McCain's campaign is airing ads that say that Republicans "can't afford Mitt Romney," who the ads claim "loses to Hillary Clinton by 16 points." Only McCain "can stop Hillary Clinton." Another says Romney's record in Massachusetts "should scare every Florida Republican. Four hundred million dollars."
Unaffiliated supporters of McCain are calling supporters of Rudy Giuliani calling a vote for Giuliani a "waste." Here in Sanford, they put fliers labeled "MItt-Flop" on the windshields of Romney's guests.
Earlier in the day, according to CBS News's Scott Conroy, Romney mentioned "a story" he once read where McCain said he had given some thought to being Sen. John Kerry's running mate in 2004." "Had someone asked me that question, there would not have been a nanosecond of thought about it," Romney said. "It would have been an immediate laugh.”
In Sanford, Romney cited a litany of McCain "accomplishments" that he said reflected the Arizonan's liberal apostasy, including the McCain-Lieberman trade-and-cap emissions program.
“There’s another guy running on our side, Sen. McCain... a good man, a hero...his views on the economy, well, I think are sort of summed up by his own statement that it’s not really something he understands that well. He’s said that a couple of times. Well, I do understand the economy, and I’m not going to be being any vice president to John McCain, either. That’s not going to happen.”
If Romney has one advantage heading into tomorrow's it in his campaign vast architecture. State director Mandy Fletcher presides over 11 staff members, dozens of near-full time volunteers and hundreds of part-time volunteers.
"Sen. McCain and our folks are tied here in Florida, and so that means we've got to get our folks out," Romney said in Sanford, gesturing to a roped off ad hoc phone bank, where volunteers used cell phones and call scripts to rope in supporters.
Tracking polls conducted for a statewide ballot initiative campaign jibe with three public polls showing a dead heat.
Edwards's Path
John Edwards's path to the nomination might be a path in the sense that a dirt road is a road, but so long as he's charging, he's got to go somewhere. And no one's worked harder at this over the past four years that Mr. Edwards.
The full memo is after the jump, but here are some excerpts.
We enter the February 5th phase of the campaign on solid financial footing. The campaign has enjoyed an online fundraising boom – over $3.2 million raised online since the first of the year – most of which will be doubled by federal matching funds. This represents an 81% increase over December in total number of contributions: 44,007 contributions were made during this period, compared with 24,240 from December 1 to December 31. These 44,007 contributions came from 35,351 donors compared to 20,243 in December. This is a 74% increase in contributing donors from December to January. We have seen an increase of 104% over the number of first-time givers in December (10,049). The pool of our support is widening – we’ve seen a 155% increase in new additions to our list compared to growth in December.
Bill Clinton didn't win a primary or caucus until Georgia. He didn't clinch the nomination until he defeated Jerry Brown in New York in April. This race will go to the candidate that can compete widely and over the long haul. We will be broadly competitive, accumulating groups of delegates across the February 5th states. Ultimately, we expect the race to narrow to one of the two celebrity candidates and us -- and when that happens, we are confident that the remaining contests will break in our direction as voters are finally offered the choice the national media has ignored all year -- the most progressive, most electable candidate in the race, John Edwards.
In addition, in the next 48 hours, the campaign will launch aggressive media buys starting in 10 states and likely expanding in the days leading up to February 5th. These will be significant media buys that will have a real impact on the race, particularly because voters in these states have not yet had broad exposure to John Edwards’ message. As we saw in South Carolina, once people have a chance to hear directly from John Edwards, the numbers move.
Sometimes, it's good to just appreciate a good speech for what it is.
Check out this kicker to today's endorsement thank-you for Ted Kennedy. Mr. Obama is referring to his father.
“I barely knew him, but when, after his death, I finally took my first trip to his tiny village in Kenya and asked my grandmother if there was anything left from him, she opened a trunk and took out a stack of letters, which she handed to me.
There were more than thirty of them, all handwritten by my father, all addressed to colleges and universities across America, all filled with the hope of a young man who dreamed of more for his life. And his prayer was answered when he was brought over to study in this country.
But what I learned much later is that part of what made it possible for him to come here was an effort by the young Senator from Massachusetts at the time, John F. Kennedy, and by a grant from the Kennedy Foundation to help Kenyan students pay for travel. So it is partly because of their generosity that my father came to this country, and because he did, I stand before you today – inspired by America’s past, filled with hope for America’s future, and determined to do my part in writing our next great chapter.”
Heading to Sanford, FL to hear Mitt Romney... today he's ratcheting up his attempt to disqualify John McCain's standing among conservatives... language includes phrases like "he'll say anything to get elected," which is what the kids call "irony," New Yorkers call "chutzpah" and McCain advisers will probably call b#(*$S#(*$..
The Second Black President
But the author of the idea that Bill Clinton was the First Black President, Toni Morrison, has endorsed Barack Obama.
Ted Kennedy Matters.
The debate in politics about whether endorsements matter is kind of like the debate in football about whether coaching matters. Most of the time, it matters on the margins. But sometimes, people, place and purpose come together, and an endorsement really stings a rival.
I think Sen. Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama, today, coming two days after South Carolina, coming at a time when, thanks to the ingenious placement of a New York Times editorial the night after a hard-fought and well-won victory after weeks of racial acrimony, well, this sentence has to end somewhere. Ted Kennedy matters. Forget the casual association of his name with blocks of Democrats Obama needs to do better with, like union members and downscale workers, Latinos and older liberals.
It allows Obama to further clarify what, for him, the Old Politics is all about -- that is, it allows him to separate the Politics of the Clintons from the politics of Democrats before the Clinton administration -- a party dominated by the Kennedy dynasty and their patrons, in many respects. And the The New Kennedy is even more of an attractive figure, in some respects. He has never shirked the responsibility of Democrats to beat up Republicans, but throughout his career, he has demonstrated a long arm for compromise. Most recently, He worked with President Bush on No Child Left Behind and with Mitt Romney (whether Romney currently accepts it or not) on health care in Massachusetts.
In some ways, there may be no member of the Democratic pantheon who better reflects the consensus-based, transformative and activist-oriented politics that Obama embraces.
And so Kennedy can be an enormously effective advocate for Obama because he understands, and, indeed, has practiced the New Politics.
There are 8 days till Super Tuesday. Thanks to Ted Kennedy and Camelot, Obama's won two of them. And because momentum seems to attenuate quickly, rolling out these endorsements when the spotlight was already on Obama extends the battery life for another 24 hours.
On a more visceral level, Ted Kennedy's endorsing your opponent is probably as big of a rebuke as there is in the Democratic Party -- even bigger than South Carolina.
Now -- it is true that Camelot, as many Democrats remember it, is idealized, and that Kennedy himself has done bad things to himself, his family and others, as Fox News and Republicans will no doubt remind. But voters know this -- they did not, after all, nominate Ted Kennedy in 1980. And so it probably does not bear any more mentioning in a political column.
"Ted, Get Some Spine..."
A bit of anti-EMK oppo circulating....
The Wood
(Go Giants!)
On The Road With John McCain
POLK CITY, FL -- I spent most of yesterday on the McCain roadshow as it wound through the back roads of Central Florida. Huge crowds, friendly, with overflow. A happy press corps enjoying the 60 degree sunshine. Nice backdrops. Special guest appearances by Joe Lieberman and others. A contended candidate. Even the trappings of something greater: a ropeline, something that McCain usually recoils against and his staff never bothers to erect.
McCain is attacking the problem of building a plurality in the state in an unorthodox way, partly born of necessity, partly because of style. There aren't Marshall Ganz-style house parties. Unlike Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, the campaign barely bothered to think about early and absentee voting. Where Guiliani (think catastrophic insurance fund) and Romney (think the economy) are responding to what the polls and editorial boards say are on the minds of Floridians, McCain largely sticks to one big theme, national security, and one obsession, which is spending. (If you ask a McCain adviser why he talks about spending, they will, first, laugh at you because McCain talks about whatever he wants, and secondly, point out that it really bothers Republicans of a certain stripe.)
The controversies of the moment barely seem to faze him. For days, the conservative blogosphere has been buzzing about McCain's Hispanic outreach adviser, Juan Hernandez, whose written and spoken positions on illegal immigration seem to be more liberal than McCain's. A woman named Joan from nearby Valrico, FL, nervously prefaced her question about him with magic words: "straight talk," as if trying to persuade McCain to answer the question even more honestly.
"He’s on my staff because he supports my policies and my proposals and my legislative proposal to secure the borders first," McCain said. Not a satisfying answer, but Joan probably wasn't inclined to support him anyway.
There were notably few immigration protesters, and when they did show up to McCain's events, they tended to stay on the periphery.
At a press availability, reporters wondered why McCain seemed to bristle at the notion that he's less comfortable talking about the economy. He used the opportunity to goad Romney.
"I’d be glad to compete and debate on those issues," he said. "My record on the economy is very strong. From being part of the Reagan revolution to cut taxes and restrain spending to my latest efforts that I have been involved in as chairman of the commerce committee and many other economic issues. So I’ll be glad to debate that side of the equation with Governor Romney. And his record of Governor of the state of Massachusetts is not one that I would want to imitate.”
(Translation: you wanna some of this, boy? Come get it.)
Then he was asked to justify his contention that Romney once supported a withdrawal timetable for Iraq. (I wrote this morning that McCain "stretched" history with the remark, and a few moments before this particular question received a stern talking to by two McCain aides and one reporter.)
McCain pulled out a notecard with blue cursive writing.
“I think that it’s very important because the Romney campaign has been trying to interpret his remarks in a way that can’t be interpreted."
He looked down at the note card.
"The statement is quote: you don’t want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you’re going to be gone. You can only interpret that as having timetables at that time were what the democrats and people who wanted to get out of Iraq were pushing. It was that time, when Harry Reid, the majority leader of the Senate said that the war was lost. It was that time when a few of us said the lowest point, said we’ve got to make sure that we send the message to al Qaeda - we will not send any timetables, we will win, we will increase the number of troops which is the way we will succeed in Iraq,”
An hour and half by bus to the Villages, a mammoth Truman Show-esque retirement community organized into gated communities with names like "Spanish Landing." An hour late, McCain arrived to find an overflow crowd laughing at Sen. Joe Lieberman's well-worn jokes. A Lake County, FL sheriff's deputy said that about 1,000 people crammed into the building.
From there, the roadshow toll-boot hopped to a pizza joint in Orlando.
At 7:00 pm, the press corps was wheels up to Jacksonville, and McCain was done for the day.
January 27, 2008
Countering EMK
Tomorrow, Sen. Hillary Clinton is in Massachusetts, of course... at noon... in her element among working class women.
Bloga Culpas: The Kennedy Endorsement
On Friday, following Ben Smith's careful nugget about Hillary Clinton's worry about a Kennedy endorsement of Barack Obama, I reported that people close to Kennedy were convinced that he would remain comfortably neutral. Well, the truth hurts, Drebin, and readers deserve an explanation.
I based my report on several sources, one of them being a person close to Bill Clinton, who said that, in conversations with Kennedy, the former president had come to believe that he would not endorse. (That source stands by Clinton's perception, and today, an adviser to the Clinton campaign said that Kennedy had told Democratic elected officials close to the Clintons that he would not endorse.)
Perhaps the radio silence from the Obama campaign should have tipped me off. They did not respond to my requests for comment. I can't say I wouldn't do the same thing in the same scenario, but to the extent that my reporting seemed in any way to denigrate Ben Smith's, I regret very much that perception.
We were both dealing with provisional information. But Ben was right. And I was not.
Some of you who actually read political blogs on Sundays might have also noticed that the first version of a report on Gov. Kathleen Sebelius's impending endorsement of Barack Obama said it would happen in Tuesday in Kansas. That last part of the report was not correct, and within three minutes of posting it, I removed.
Sebelius will endorse Obama; the details of the endorsement are under wraps, at the moment.
Sebelius Plans To Endorse Obama
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) will deliver the Democratic response to the State of the Union on Monday.
And then Tuesday or Wednesday, she plans to endorse Barack Obama, numerous Democratic sources said.
The sources said that Sebelius decided some time ago that Obama was her candidate but decided to wait until after the State of the Union.
An Obama spokesperson declined to comment.
"Right now, the Governor's focus is on delivering her response to the President's State of the Union message Monday night," said Nicole Corcoran, communications director to Sebelius. "The Governor will have more to say about the presidential campaign after Monday."
CBS News reports that Sen. Ted Kennedy will endorse Sen. Barack Obama tomorrow in Washington, D.C.
Quick Thoughts On Crist's Endorsement
A few thoughts: Crist is very popular in Florida, but he is NOT popular with conservative activists who (correctly) think he governs like a moderate Democrat.
He IS popular with rank-and-file Republicans, though...
This is not an inconsequential endorsement..
This also erases McCain's misleading attack on Romney from the headlines....
Rudy Giuliani, who arguably pandered to Crist by supporting his national catastrophic insurance fund, was holding out hope that he'd get the endorsement...
McCain Stretches Romney's Words
ORLANDO -- Neck and neck with Mitt Romney here, Sen. John McCain sought to the pull the inter-campaign conversation away from the economy and back into his wheelhouse Saturday, dredging up an April 2007 quote from Mitt Romney and misleadingly suggesting that Romney agreed with Democrats' plans to set a withdrawal timetable for Iraq.
"Gov. Romney wanted to set a date for withdrawal similar to what the democrats are seeking which would have led to the victory of Al-Qaeda in my view," McCain said, according to CBS News' Dante Higgins.
As proof, McCain's campaign directed reporters to an April 2007 interview with ABC News where
Romney said that the next "president and Prime Minister al-Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about."
That quote was derided by McCain at the time as a "secret timetable," although Romney never said he favored a particular withdrawal date and did not advocate an inflexible timeline for American troops to begin a draw down. Indeed, Romney has many times said he opposed such a withdrawal timetable.
McCain used the quote as part of a larger argument that he was the only Republican to fully support the surge of troops to Iraq commanded by Gen. David Petreaus. And it is clear that Romney has used softer language to characterize the likelihood of a pullout in his administration, once arguing that the Republican and Democratic presidents would likely not diverge in how they handled Iraq once they were in office.
Nonetheless, the words set off a fury of e-mail and telephone responses across the state, with campaign reporters for all the networks e-mailing each other the latest quotations from their candidates.
Romney said called McCain's charge "simply wrong" and "dishonest." A Romney spokesperson called McCain "unhinged;" A McCain spokesperson called the Romney spokesperson "Unhinged."
McCain later said it was Romney who should apologize, and "to the troops."
Kevin Madden, a Romney spokesman, then blasted this sentence to reporters: "This statement is especially egregious because Senator McCain knows in his heart that he is engaging in a blatant distortion towards a fellow Republican who is also committed to helping the men and women of our military achieve a successful result in Iraq."
Speaking later in Sun City, McCain repeated the charge that Romney favored a "timetable for withdrawal," words that Romney has never used.
Steve Schmidt, a senior McCain adviser, said that the context of the question was about withdrawal timetables. ". The question was about timetables and withdrawal. Romney answered it the way he answered it."
McCain later clarified the context: ""Last April, Governor Romney said he supported 'timetables' for withdrawing our troops from Iraq and keeping them secret. When he suggested secret 'timetables,' General Petraeus' new strategy in Iraq was just starting. Opponents of General Petraeus' strategy all argued that we should not increase troop levels, but establish 'timetables' for withdrawing our forces from Iraq. It was clear at the time that some were hedging their bets on Iraq, positioning themselves politically by being deliberately vague on their support for General Petraeus' new strategy. "
Rudy Giuliani, campaigning in Central Florida, used the occasion to distance himself from the internecine squabbles.
"We don't want to become like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, right? They're trying to work their way out of it, we shouldn't be trying to work our way into it."
January 26, 2008
The Bottom Lines
1. A win is a win is a win. Forget the racial and gender demographics. A big win is a big win. This is a big win. Obama nearly received more votes than all the Democrats combined in 2004. South Carolina was also a primary, not a caucus.
2. Finishing a low second and a few points ahead John Edwards is a tough truth for Hillary Clinton to confront. The campaign predicted they'd finish second but did not believe that Edwards would come as close as he did.
3. The South Carolina primary is ammunition for those who believe that Clinton is only electable on the coasts. (That's why she's in Tennessee tonight.) A point: in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, a majority of Democrats have voted against Hillary Clinton.
4. Undoubtedly, black voters were turned off by the Clinton campaign's insinuation that their vote really didn't count because everyone just knew they'd choose Obama.
5. The exit polls show that Bill Clinton did not help his wife not one bit in South Carolina and may have hurt her. Late deciders were driven to Obama by large margins.
6. Obama kept it competitive with white voters and brought tens of thousands of new voters and young voters into the process. His usual coalition -- younger folks, folks with college degrees -- expanded to include voters of all income levels. This is key to Feb. 5.
7. Whether the racial prism through which South Carolina was viewed was, in matter of fact, the
fault of a concerted effort by the Clintons, the political establishment believes it to be so, and the Clintons face a huge perception problem. BTW: the margin of victory tonight could persuade folks like Ted Kennedy to shrug off their neutrality and endorse.
8. Confidence does not become the Clinton campaign. When it gets cocky, it loses focus and humility, which seems to be the key to its success.
9. Boy, can the Obama campaign organize. Steve Hildebrand helped to put this together. Jeremy Bird, Stacey Brayboy and Anton Gunn executed it. Cornell Belcher polled it. And Michelle Obama helped more than one might expect.
10. The margin of victory was so big that the press was easily able to dismiss the Clinton campaign's spin tonight. But here are legitimate points they might make:
(a). About 20 percent of black voters did choose Hillary Clinton.
(b) In no major state going forward does Barack Obama have the same demographic advantages as he had in South Carolina. (In Georgia, 30% of the population is black; in Alabama, the figure is 25%. In California, which allocates 8 times as many delegates as South Carolina does, is about 7% black. (Arkansas and New York have large black populations, but…)
(c) South Carolina and Iowa were the two retail states where Obama's campaign worked the hardest and spent the most, and Obama was able to build movements in those states. But it took months. He can't replicate these organizations in 22 states in 9 days.
(d) Hillary Clinton is running strong in states like Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas -- all interior states -- and is stronger in the states with the most delegates.
(e) Including Florida and Michigan, more Democrats have voted for HRC than any other candidate by far.
HRC in Nashville: "Now, the eyes of the country turn to Tennessee and the other states that will be voting on Feb. 5 and of course to the state of Florida that will be voting on Tuesday. I want this election to be about the next generation..."
Obama in Columbia, SC:
"Those who doubted...tonight, the cynics who believe that what began in the snows of Iowa was just an illusion were told a different story by the good people of South Carolina..."
"After four great contests, in every corner of this country, we have the most votes, the most delegates, the most diverse coalition of Americans than we've seen in a long, long time..."
"The kind of change we seek will not come easy...partly because we have fierce competitors who are worthy of our respect and our admiration...we have to remember that this is a contest for the Democratic nomination ...there are real differences between the candidates..."
'Status quo...fighting back with the same old tactics that divide us....the kind of partisan that you're not even allowed to say that a Republican had an idea, even if it's one that you never agreed it."
"This is our chance..to end this once and for all."
"I did not travel around SC and see a white SC and a black SC. I saw SC. I saw crumbling schools and are stealing the future of black children and white children alike."
**WJC in Independence, MO: "This is an interesting race. Sen. Obama won there. Hillary congratulated him. He won fair and square. Now we go to Feb. 5 when millions of Americans finally get in the act. Let us begin with a fair statement. This country needs a change in direction."
**HRC calls Obama, congratulates him and "wishes him well"....rally in TN...and then to FLORIDA for private fundraisers Sunday
** In statement, says: "We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the twenty-two states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th."
** Edwards meeting with senior advisers soon.....
** Begins sending staff to Feb 5 states....
** Delegate allocation unknown.....
Gov. Charlie Crist: "I don't think anybody would be better" than McCain.
Crist: "That's an endorsement..."
South Carolina Primary Wire Everybody wants to rule the world.
Obama to speak at 9pm ET...
** 6 in 10 voters say Bill Clinton's campaigning was important; of those, a plurality voted for Obama. More exit poll data from CBS News:
** HRC and Edwards won 38% of the white vote
** HRC won 20% of the black vote to Edwards's 2 percent, which means she'll finish second.
** Black voters accounted for 53% of the electorate, up from 47%
** Obama brings in thousands of new voters...
** HRC/Edwards battle for third...may have split white voters...(Edwards: 39, HRC: 36, Obama: 24)
** Gender: Black men: 80 to 17, Obama to HRC. Black women: 82 Obama, 17 Clinton.
** Edwards win white men: Clinton/Obama tie... Clinton wins white women...
Note the 9/11 imagery and the portrayal of America under siege ...
Voice Over: “In the race for President who stands up for Florida? Only Rudy Giuliani.” Chyron: “In the race for President” Chyron: “who stands up for Florida?”
Chyron: “ONLY Rudy Giuliani”
Mayor Giuliani: “A Giuliani presidency will have two clear goals: returning our economic policy to the values of Ronald Reagan and taking the offense against Islamic terrorism.”
Voice Over: “Rudy Giuliani transformed a city called unmanageable …”
Chyron: “Rudy Giuliani”
Voice Over: “… into ‘the most successful episode of conservative governance in the past 50 years.’”
Chyron: “‘the most successful episode of conservative governance in the past 50 years.’ – George Will, Conservative Columnist, 1/28/07”
Voice Over: “Only Rudy Giuliani”
Chyron: “ONLY Rudy Giuliani”
Mayor Giuliani: “On my first day as President, I’ll send Congress the largest tax cut in history. I’ll take my case straight to the American people. I’ll fight for it, I’ll pass it and I know it’ll work because I’ve done it before. And I’ll deliver a national catastrophe fund to reduce insurance rates because I know what it means to your future.”
Voice Over: “In America’s fourth largest government …
Voice Over: “Rudy delivered record tax cuts …”
Voice Over: “reformed welfare …”
Voice Over: “and reduced spending. Only Rudy Giuliani.”
Chyron: “ONLY Rudy Giuliani”
Mayor Giuliani: “Dealing with Yasser Arafat, Fidel Castro, and the Mafia I learned one thing. The way you deal with terrorists, tyrants, and bullies is you to stand up them. You don’t back down.”
Voice Over: “In crisis, the nation looked to Rudy Giuliani for strength and hope. And in our darkest hours, we found it. Only Rudy Giuliani.”
Chyron: “ONLY Rudy Giuliani”
Mayor Giuliani: “This is the greatest country in the world. We have the will and the courage and the ideals to ensure the economic and physical safety of every single citizen. All we need is the leadership. And leading in crisis is what I do best.”
Voice Over: “ONLY Rudy Giuliani.
Mayor Giuliani: “I’m Rudy Giuliani, I approve this message, and I’m asking for your vote.”
Et Tu, J. Rubin?
When Jennifer Rubin, a fan of Rudy's, says that Rudy needs to win Florida or else....
Delegates V. Votes
Clinton communications impresario Howard Wolfson has written a memo that nicely summarizes the strategic argument the Clinton campaign will make over the next two weeks.
After some throat-clearing expectations setting for South Carolina, he writes: "Regardless of today’s outcome, the race quickly shifts to Florida, where hundreds of thousands of Democrats will turn out to vote on Tuesday."
As John Madden would say, "Boom." That's the line that tells you exactly how Clinton will campaign between now and Feb. 5.
For there are no delegates to be awarded in Florida. Clinton won't campaign there, but she will campaign for Florida -- and in all likelihood, she will win the votes of several hundred thousand Floridians on Feb. 29.
In Florida and beyond, watch for Clinton to focus on the forest, not the trees -- the national popular vote and the superdelegates who follow the herd, and not (so much) the earned delegates.
It's safe to say that, as of Feb. 6, Hillary Clinton will have earned the votes of at least several hundred thousand more Democrats than Barack Obama. Obama, on Feb. 6, might have a slight lead in earned delegates, depending on the number of states he wins. Or, the ratio of Clinton's delegates to Obama's will be smaller than the ratio of her popular vote total to his. States can be "won" and "lost" by the same candidate -- Nevada being one example. Votes are proportionally allocated by Congressional district, which poses a strategic quandary for all the campaigns: do they focus on "winning the delegates? Or do they focus on "winning the state?"
The Clinton campaign knows this. The Obama campaign knows this, too.
The Obama campaign's theory of the case can be called the "Delegate Dominoes." Since the nomination rests on -- and only on -- a foundation of delegate selection, the national popular vote difference is meaningless -- and the press should not be overly sensitive to its effects on momentum. If the press focuses on delegates going into Feb. 5 and coming out of Feb. 5, Obama has a correspondingly higher chance of avoiding the enormous crucible that is the media's declaration of a frontrunner. Here's why a post-Feb 5 media consensus about Clinton is so dangerous to Obama: for the first time in this race, it will be based on the votes of real people, and not the conventional wisdom that we pull out of our linked-at-the-pelvis rear ends.
Notice the distinction above between earned delegates and superdelegates. The Supers tend to latch their hitch to the winning wagons because a lot's at stake if they choose the wrong candidate. Clinton currently has a Superdelegate lead, and it's safe to say that Superdelegates, generally being timid, will come aboard if the voters give them permission.
Here's how Bill Burton, Obama's peach-ice-cream-tongued-spokesman, responded to the Wolfson memo:
“It should not be surprising given recent events that the Clinton campaign would in one breath say the election is about winning delegates and then tout their success in states that don’t award any delegates in the next breath. The DNC has made clear that the winner of the contest in Florida will not receive any delegates, so the next step in this nominating process is February 5th. If the Clinton campaign's southern strength rests on the outcome in a state where they're the only ones competing, that should give Democrats deep pause. Again, no one is more disappointed that Florida and Michigan Democrats will have no role in selecting delegates for the nomination of the party’s standard bearer than Senator Obama but he looks forward to vigorously competing for their votes in the general election.”
If you'd like to experience The Table as an audio podcast, click here.
Ted Kennedy Will Stay On The Fence, Probably
Seems like Hillary Clinton is worried that Ted Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama.
The betting among longtime Kennedy watchers, however, is that he will stay comfortably neutral.
January 25, 2008
Clinton. Obama Spar Over Florida Delegates
Sen. Hillary Clinton pledged today to work to seat Florida and Michigan's delegates at the Democratic National Convention, thereby negating the penalties meted out by the Democratic National Committee.
It's true that the party's eventual nominee will essentially take over the operations of the DNC -- and the DNConvention, so the pledge carries weight.
Clinton acknowledged that not all DNC members would be happy with her pledge and she insisted that she was abiding by an earlier vow not to campaign in Florida.
But Florida Democrats will find out about her kindly disposition through the media, and through the Florida Democratic Party, whose chair, Karen Thurman, thanked Clinton "for her support and commitment to the Sunshine State." Thurman said the party intends to select 210 delegates and 31 alternates and predicts that turnout for next Tuesday's primary will set records.
Late today, Barack Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, responded:
“No one is more disappointed that Florida Democrats will have no role in selecting delegates for the nomination of the party’s standard bearer than Senator Obama. When Senator Clinton was campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, she made it clear that states like Michigan and Florida that wouldn’t produce any delegates, ‘don’t count for anything.’ Now that Senator Clinton’s worried about losing the first Southern primary, she’s using Florida for her own political gain by trying to assign meaning to a contest that awards zero delegates and where no campaigning has occurred. Senator Clinton’s own campaign has repeatedly said that this is a ‘contest for delegates’, and Florida is a contest that offers zero. Whether it is Barack Obama’s record, her position on Social Security, or even the meaning of the Florida Primary, it seems like Hillary Clinton will do or say anything to win an election. When he is the nominee, Barack Obama will campaign vigorously in Florida and Michigan to put them in the Democratic column in 2008.”
Romney's Raising Gobs Of Money
Mitt Romney won't tell the voters of Florida how much money he's contributed from his own bank accounts, but it's clear that he hasn't stopped the inflow of cash from donors.
Over the next four days, Romney holds four high-dollar fundraisers in the tonier precincts of the Sunshine State.
Tonight, he'll ditch his press corps to attend a $2300 a plate fundraiser at the home of the son of Amb. Mel Sembler in Pinnelas Park, near Tampa.
On Sunday, Romney has two $2300-per-person fundraisers, one in Boca and the other in Palm Beach.
And the day of the Florida primary -- Romney will pose for photos with donors exercising their constitutional rights in St. Petersburg.
By no means is he done there: a colleague reports that McCain has four fundraisers scheduled for California before Feb. 5)
Edwards Closes On "Grown Up," Rural Strength
Ok, he's no longer the youngest guy in the bunch, but who'd have ever thought John Edwards would close his South Carolina campaign with the argument that he's the adult in the race?
(I am aware of the irony of the "adult" candidate broadcasting the harshest negative attacks from Monday's debate... as an attempt to show that it wasn't Edwards who said CLINTON IS A WAL-MART LACKEY and it wasn't Edwards who said OBAMA IS TIED TO REZKO. By the way: did John Edwards mention that he wasn't the one who called Clinton a WAL-MART lackey and Obama a SLUM-LORD CODDLER?)
SENATOR OBAMA: While I was working on those streets, you were a corporate lawyer sitting on the board of Wal-Mart.
SENATOR CLINTON: I was fighting against those ideas when you were practicing law and representing your contributor, Rezko, in his slum landlord business in inner-city Chicago.
EDWARDS: This kind of squabbling - how many children is this gonna get health care? How many people are gonna get an education from this? This is not about us personally. It is about what we are trying to do for this country.
I'm John Edwards and I approve this message.
"And I Won't Back Down..."
The... "Don't You Dare Count Me Out" e-mail:
EDWARDS TO VISIT FEBRUARY FIFTH STATES AND DISCUSS HIS PLANS TO MAKE SURE OUR GOVERNMENT WORKS FOR WORKING FAMILIES AND THE MIDDLE CLASS
Edwards will visit Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee to talk about his plans to fight for hard-working families like the ones he grew up with
Chapel Hill, North Carolina – Following the South Carolina primary, Edwards will travel to Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri to meet with voters and discuss his plans to make sure our government works for working families and the middle class, not just special interests. From guaranteeing universal health care to creating good jobs and enacting trade deals that help workers, not just big multinational corporations, Edwards will take on entrenched interests and fight for working and middle class families. On Sunday, January 27th, Edwards will hold a community event in Dublin, Georgia, and on Monday, January 28h, Edwards will be making stops in Chattanooga and Nashville, Tennessee, as well as Springfield, Missouri.
Martinez (Finally) Endorses McCain
Sen. Mel Martinez will endorse John McCain in Miami today, thereby guaranteeing McCain the lead spot on Florida newscasts and helping, potentially, in Central Florida, where Martinez, then the mayor of Orange County, put together a coalition of conservative white voters and Hispanics of all descent.
A new insider advantage poll has McCain and Romney exactly tied at 23.3%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 16% and Mike Huckabee at 13%.
Also: McCain recieved the endorsement today of State Rep. Clay Ford of Gulf Breeze, FL.
Previewing South Carolina
Here are excerpts from a preview of South Carolina's Democratic primary I wrote for our cousin publication, National Journal.
Before an important press conference last week, staffers at the South Carolina Democratic Party's headquarters here decided to decorate a conference room with the yard signs of its leading presidential candidates. The party serves as a neutral repository for campaign information, and visitors can choose from a variety of campaign literature, bumper stickers, and postcards boosting Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, or Dennis Kucinich. But there was a problem: They had run out of everything that said "Obama."
A call to Barack Obama's state headquarters provided only a partial fix: The campaign said it was running out of material, too, and could only spare a couple of yard signs. So a party volunteer was dispatched to fetch the precious commodity. Just moments before reporters would have noticed their absence, Obama signs were taped to the wall.
In South Carolina, as in Iowa, the Obama campaign has out-hustled, out-innovated, and outorganized its competition. Days before the Palmetto State's January 26 primary, his rivals had all but ceded the state to him. Obama is now spending the bulk of his time in South Carolina. Clinton, meanwhile, spent several days last week campaigning in other states. And Edwards's state director lowered expectations to the floor, saying he is confident that Edwards will get more than 15 percent of the vote in some congressional districts -- reaching the viability threshold for delegates, in other words.
The Firefighters' union's latest direct mail piece against Rudy Giuliani targets "Security Moms" and accuses Giuliani of compromising safety by "hiring yes men" and "showing bad judgment."
The unions says 128,000 Republican women between the ages of 40 and 80 will recieve the mail between now and Tuesday.
The Giuliani campaign released this testimonial video from Frank Siller, the brother of an FDNY firefighter.
Anti-Romney Robocalls In Florida?
The Mitt Report folks pass along this e-mail:
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Raphael Canton < theXXXX@XXXX>
Date: Jan 24, 2008 1:44 PM
Subject: I just got push polled
To: info@mittreport.com
I just received a call from (CALLER ID)
DR FE PR COM 703-378-7296
The call mentioned it was from Election Research, it said Romney was for government paid abortions, for gay marriage and against the bush tax cuts....it praised Huckabee on immigration.....obviously lies lies lies...... The end also left the phone #719-306-2543
I am in Wesley Chapel...15 minutes north of Tampa (proper) Pasco County.....
Clinton Kremlinology
It is hard to know for sure whether advisers to Hillary Clinton -- heck, Sen. Clinton herself -- is happy that the attention of the press corps is focused on her husband.
The New York Times's Healy, who has excellent sources in Hillaryland, writes that the brain trust has concluded that "aggressive politicking against Senator Barack Obama is resonating with voters, and they intend to keep him on the campaign trail in a major role after the South Carolina primary."
To the extent that Bill's focus keeps the press's focus on Obama's qualifications and forces Obama to spend time defending his record, the former president's participation is an unalloyed good. And certainly, the more Democrats he sees in person, the better. Core Democrats love him.
But what's not helpful -- and what is worrying some Clinton advisers -- is Clinton's habit, his itch, to revert to a habit of the partisan wars of his presidency -- he blames the media for everything and casts himself as the victim. (Classic Clinton self-pity is how Maureen Dowd put it.)
To Obama advisers, the video selection above is, in and of itself, an argument for Obama's candidacy. More of that?
But can anyone tell Bill Clinton that, even if he is right on the merits -- he has to simmer down? Is Sen. Clinton herself aware of the uniformly negative coverage that her husband's outbursts have generated? Remember: Bill Clinton helped to drive his wife off message in Iowa, too.
The Table: Brokered Primaries? And Beat The Press!
The Table mates -- myself, Ross Douthat and Matt Yglesias take a look at the past two weeks and preview Florida and beyond.
Ross and Matt are terrifically smart. Terrifyingly smart. They book have written books, too. So it's fun to pretend to be as sophisticated as they are.
Polling Update
MSNBC/McClatchy's survey of Republicans in Florida:
Romney 30
McCain 26
Rudy 18
Their survey of Democrats in South Carolina:
Obama 38
Clinton: 30
Edwards 19
And the national NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll of Democrats shows Barack Obama picking up nine points over the past month and Hillary Clinton staying where she is. She seems to have a floor and ceiling in the mid-to-upper 40s, whilst Obama's ceiling has wide-open skylights.
Seriously. I thought they would. A lot of us analyst types thought they would.
But they endorsed Hillary Clinton and John McCain. (This will no doubt not help McCain.)
The potential upside of a great Obama presidency is enticing, but this country faces huge problems, and will no doubt be facing more that we can’t foresee. The next president needs to start immediately on challenges that will require concrete solutions, resolve, and the ability to make government work. Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.
Roberta McCain Speaks Truth To Power
She's right: the Republican establishment is circling Mitt Romney right now, not her son.
Obama Reads The Late Show Top-Ten List
From the home office in Wahoo, Nebraska...
THE "LATE SHOW" TOP TEN
"Barack Obama Campaign Promises"
[As presented by Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama on the Thursday, Jan. 24 broadcast of the LATE SHOW with DAVID LETTERMAN, seen weeknights (11:35 PM 12:37 AM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.]
10. To keep the budget balanced, I’ll rent the situation room for sweet sixteens.
9. I will double your tax money at the craps table.
8. Appoint Mitt Romney secretary of lookin’ good.
7. If you bring a gator to the White House, I’ll wrassle it.
6. I’ll put Regis on the nickel.
5. I’ll rename the tenth month of the year “Barack-tober.”
4. I won’t let Apple release the new and improved Ipod the day after you bought the previous model.
3. I’ll find money in the budget to buy Letterman a decent hairpiece.
2. Pronounce the word nuclear, nuclear.
1. Three words: Vice President Oprah.
FlaDems To DNC: We're Voting. Deal With It.
According to the Florida Democratic Party, 295,932 votes have already been cast ahead of Tuesday's non-delegate "primary." (Remember: the DNC stripped the state of its delegates after Florida refused to abide by DNC rules.)
100,000 Democratic absentee ballots have yet to been returned.
**Florida Primary Vote Totals through Wednesday, 1/22 - 5 days to go**
2008 PRES PRIMARY Early Vote (Day 10): 385,385 total voters
D: 170,806 (44.3%)
R: 168,812 (43.8%)
Other: 45,767 (11.9%)
More than 63,000 Floridians early-voted on Wednesday - the highest daily turnout so far.
2008 PRES PRIMARY Absentee (vs. 2006 GENERAL final)
Statewide Absentee Requests: 604,882 (915,186)
D: 232,138/38.4% of total ballots requested (299,635/32.7% of '06 total) - 77.5%
R: 298,545/49.4% (503,848/55.1%) - 59.3%
Other: 74,199/12.3% (111,703/12.2%) - 66.4%
Statewide Absentee Returns: 313,617 - 51.8% in to date (736,829 - 80.5%)
D: 125,126/40.0% of total ballots returned (245,206/33.3% of '06 total)
R: 156,349/50.0% (410,751/55.7%)
Other: 32,142/10.2% (80,872/11.0%)
Purple Thumb Guy Endorses Romney
Actually, Morton Blackwell is known for more than just his Purple Thumb trick at the Republican National Convention. He's one of architects of the VRC that Hillary Clinton worried about in the 90s and has trained a generation of conservative leaders for political combat.
Romney Aims His Charm At Fredheads
His rich campaign can afford to be this nice: you can now order Fredheads for Mitt stickers off Mitt Romney's website.
Fredheads, of course, are -- were -- supporters of Fred Dalton Thompson's presidential bid.
Crist Hints He Might Endorse
Interviewed by Larry Kramer on CNBC, the governor of Florida (lambasted by the Wall Street Journal today as the "allegedly Republican" governor of Florida), said there five more days left between now and the primary and that he hadn't made up his mind.
Maybe John McCain is too kind to force Crist's hand -- McCain was the only one of the presidentials to campaign for him in 2006, and Crist has let McCain know that he hasn't forgotten it.
On the other hand, Rudy Giuliani has embraced Crist's proposal for a national catastrophic insurance fund -- the offense that led to this morning's Journal smackdown.
A "Stealth" Endorsement of Romney?
That's what Time's Michael Scherer believes to be the case after an exegesis of Focus on the Family's video candidate guides.
But Tom Minnery, Focus's media-savvy senior vice president for policy, says nay:
First of all, rest assured that we have not been endorsing any candidates, either “stealthily” or otherwise. Our comments are what they are — a review of what the candidates, both Democrat and Republican, are saying on issues we think Christians care about.
By the way, something else is happening here. I believe the mainstream media doesn’t quite know how to deal with alternative media such as ours. They’ve always considered themselves to have the corner on commentary, and now that we are able to reach our audience directly, rather than through them, and to say directly to our audience what we want to say, they have no pigeonhole to put us in.
I'm with Scherer.
South Carolina In Flux
A spate of negative press may finally be catching up to Hillary Clinton in South Carolina. A new poll shows her in dangering of losing her second place standing to John Edwards, editorial boards across the country -- from the coasts to the plains -- have excoriated the campaign for running demonstratively false radio ad, and Bill Clinton's adrenal outbursts are being universally judges as harmful.
There was a better than even chance that had polls show John Edwards trailing Clinton significantly in South Carolina, he might have ended his campaign early. A lot of that support -- white, working class voters and poor black voters -- would have swung Clinton's campaign.
Joe Erwin, an Obama supporter who never minces his words, wrote in a campaign memo that "Hillary Clinton’s campaign is pulling out all the stops to win in South Carolina." He noted that the Clinton doubled its advertising buy to nearly $414,000 per week.
A few hours later, the Clinton campaign responded with Obama's own words:
Earlier today, the Obama campaign circulated an expectations-setting memo that asserted that Senator Clinton is going “all-out” to win in South Carolina. But just two days ago, Senator Obama gave an interview to CBN’s David Brody where he suggested just the opposite.
Senator Obama: “I think the South Carolina voters will have to make an assessment in terms of how seriously she's taking the state. She said last night that Bill Clinton wasn't the one running for President, but this is the next primary and he's the one who's staying behind." [Obama interview, David Brody, 1/22/08]
So does the Obama campaign think we are giving up on South Carolina or going all out for it? I guess it depends on the day.
The truth is that Clinton wants to finish second -- preferably a strong second -- and wants whatever wounds were opened in South Carolina to heal quickly.
Scalia's Son Endorses Romney; Lots Of Fred-Heads Re-Camp
John McCain is earning more establishment endorsements these days, but prominent Republican lawyers -- a big part of that Capital "E" Establishment --, for the most part, are briefing someone else:
Eugene Scalia, son of Justice Antonin Scalia and a former chief lawyer for the labor department, has been neutral in the presidential race until today. He's now aboard Lawyers for Romney, and joining him are about a dozen prominent Republican lawyers who, until Monday, had been supporters of Fred Thompson.
Other big names include Rachel Brand, the former associate attorney general under Alberto Gonazles, Viet Dihn, another former senior Bush administration attorney, and the ubiquitous Victoria Toensing and Joseph DiGenova.
Check the jump for a full listing. Many of the names played large roles in the confirmation of Justices Alito and Roberts.
Star Frosh Senator Claims Clinton "Fast And Loose" With Truth
In a conference call today to tout Barack Obama's Feb 5 strategy, Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, widely considered her party's best new Senate candidate of the 2006 cycle, warned President Bill Clinton to not play "fast and loose with the truth" on the campaign trail.
McCaskill was responding to a reporter's open-ended question about Bill Clinton's evolving diary of public thoughts about Mr. Obama.
"I do not begrudge Bill Clinton's working for his wife, but the one thing I would say is really important to President Clinton to think about right now, because of the larger megaphone he has as a former president, he really needs to be careful with the truth."
McCaskill went on to say that Clinton "tried to manipulate the facts in a way that is patently unfair," "flat wrong," and "demeaning." She did not elaborate.
Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) urged Clinton to remember that the Democrats would have to unify around a candidate "before Denver," she said, referring to the party's nomination convention, and to choose his words carefully.
McCain Is -- Finally -- In The Money
As first reported by Time, Sen. John McCain has raised more than $7M since the beginning of the month -- most of it over the past two weeks. Nearly $3M has been raised online.
A major McCain fundraiser told me yesterday that a victory in Florida could bring in $5M from the well-heeled donor establishment, a group McCain has still been unable to render harmless or favorable.
After Florida, assuming Romney and McCain finish one/two or two/one, will the money flow to the self-funder -- Romney? or to the guy who needs it but doesn't like to raise it -- McCain?
(Updated) Clinton Campaign Pulls The Misleading South Carolina Ad....
A Clinton aide said the ad was not intended to air for long, had finished its rotation, and had yielded its space to a "closer" ad that focuses on policy.
Obama's Feb 5 Strategy Develops....
So how does Barack Obama campaign after South Carolina?
The outlines of a strategy are becoming visible. Obama and his surrogates will operate under the assumption that the more aggressive Hillary Clinton campaigns, the more outbursts Bill Clinton has, the more voters in interior red and purple states will find the Clintons off-putting and that the negative feelings will obscure the Clinton mantra that only she (and he) can stand up and protect their interests.
Advisers believe that the more the Clintons poke at Obama, the more sympathetic he becomes, and the more she plays into his contention that she's a divisive, polarizing figure; Obama's polling shows and his campaign's strategists sense that it reminds Democrats in the interior of the country of the Clinton of yore: cold, unlikable, sarcastic -- and coastal. In states like Arizona, Kansas and Idaho and Missouri, Clinton will scare off independents and will lose support among younger women, in particular.
Also: Obama's brain trust believes that Clinton's decision to essentially cede South Carolina to him will backfire, as it will allow him to demonstrate that Iowa was not a fluke -- he can turnout young voters everywhere -- and, that African Americans will resent her refusal to participate in "their" primary.
The coastal prizes of California and New York will be tough, but Obama may well do better in enough congressional districts to keep the margins close -- better, Obama's team believes, than Clinton will do in the interior of the country.
Purple and Red-state surrogates abound: Gov. Janet Napolitano and Sen. Claire McCaskill will argue, in subtle terms, that only Obama can unify the country, which will be interpreted as a knock against Clinton's downward pull on other Demcorats on the ballot.
The concern is out there: one reason Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, carefully tended to by the Clinton world, has stayed neutral is that she fears that having Clinton on the ticket would hurt other Democrats in her state, a Clinton adviser who spoke to Sebelius said.
Once again, the campaign has one theory and the national political press corps has another.
The coverage so far has centered on the notion that Obama allowed Bill Clinton to break his stride and mess up his head, forcing him to spend half of his stump speech reciting and rebutting Clinton allegations. His unsurprising assumed victory South Carolina would reinforce the perception that Obama appeals only to young, rich, white people and to black voters.
Obama's campaign manager and surrogates are hosting a conference call later and will fill in some of the details.
Once Upon A Time, John McCain Actually Liked Mitt Romney
First Look: Mitt Romney's Newest Florida Ad
It's heavy on the conservative validators, from Fred Barnes to the National Review to... the National Review.
Tonight's Debate
The podium order for tonight's Republican presidential debate is:, from left to right, audience view: Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Paul Huckabee.
Brian Williams will be on stage left; Tim Russert will be on stage right. Twice, the audience will be brought into the conversation.
Lawyers for Hillary Clinton urge Nevada Democratic Party's chair Jill Derby to reject what they call the "minor procedural problems" brought to light by Barack Obama's lawyer and instead ask her to focus on the Obama campaign's "premeditated and predesigned" plan to "engage systematic corruption" of the party's caucus procedures.
The Clinton team alleges that caucus cards were "premarked" for Obama, that Obama precinct chairs delibaretly miscounted votes, that young children were counted as having voted for Obama, that Clinton caucus goers were asked to leave before official counts were taken.
In Louisiana, Uncommitted Beats McCain, But McCain Beats Romney
It seems that "pro-life uncommitted" won the Louisiana Republican caucuses last night.
But Mitt Romney, the only candidate with a real precinct organization there, trailed behind Sen. John McCain and Ron Paul in the final results.
Per the state party:
Delegate candidates endorsed by US Senator John McCain (R-AZ) appear to have won more state convention delegate positions than any other presidential slate at the Louisiana Caucuses.
Mitt Romney finished third (fourth, really).
Obama Hits Clinton In SC Response Ad
Barack: I’m Barack Obama, running for President and I approve this message.
Anncr: It’s what’s wrong with politics today. Hillary Clinton will say anything to get elected. Now she’s making false attacks on Barack Obama. The Washington Post says Clinton isn’t telling the truth. Obama “did not say that he liked the ideas of Republicans” In fact, Obama’s led the fight to raise the minimum wage, close corporate tax loopholes and cut taxes for the middle class. But it was Hillary Clinton, in an interview with Tom Brokaw, who quote “paid tribute” to Ronald Reagan’s economic and foreign policy. She championed NAFTA – even though it has cost South Carolina thousands of jobs. And worst of all, it was Hillary Clinton who voted for George Bush’s war in Iraq. Hillary Clinton. She’ll say anything, and change nothing. It’s time to turn the page.
The Best Pollster in Florida, Rob Schroth, Has New Numbers
** The poll was conducted AFTER Fred Thompson dropped.
** The sample size is 800 likely voters
** Did I mention: Schroth and his partner Tom Eldon are generally considered the best of the non-partisan political pollsters in the state. (Mason Dixons' folks are a close second -- or maybe tied -- heck, I'm a humanist -- they're all the best.)
The poll was conducted for several news outlets, including the St. Petersburg Times and the Miami Herald.
Bill Clinton Bitches Out The Media
Excuse the French, but that's the only word that came to mind when reading a transcript of Bill Clinton responding to a shouted question from Jessica Yellin in South Carolina. I await the video. (Context: ex-SC GOP chair Dick Harpootlian, an Obama supporter, likened Clinton to Lee Atwater.)
"I never heard a word of public complaint when Mr. Obama said Hillary was not truthful, no character, was poll-driven. He had more pollsters than she did.
When he put out a hit job on me at the same time he called her the senator from Punjab, I never said a word. And I don't care about it today. I'm not upset about it.
The only thing I pointed out was that there was substantially no difference in her record and his on Iraq, and that he had said in 2004 there was no difference between his position and President Bush. And he said that was somehow dishonest, but he never answers how it's not accurate. So this is crazy.
This rhetoric is getting a little carried away here. And let me remind you, my ultimate answer is this -- there are still two people around who marched with Martin Luther King and risked their lives, John Lewis and Reverend Andrew Young. They both said that Hillary was right and the people who attacked her were wrong, and that she did not play the race card, but they did.
So I don't have to defend myself from Dick Harpootlian. I will just refer you to John Lewis and Andrew Young. And let him go get in an argument with them about it.
Let him go get in an argument with Dolores Huerta, one of the founders of Farm Workers, against what happened in Nevada.
There is a fact here -- this is almost like once you accuse somebody of racism or bigotry, or something, the facts become irrelevant. There are facts here.
And the final thing I would like to say is, you're asking me about this, and you sat through this whole meeting. Not one single, solitary soul asked about any of this. And they never do.
They are feeding you this because they know this is what you want to cover. This is what you live for.
But this hurts the people of South Carolina, because the people of South Carolina are coming to these meetings and asking questions about what they care about. And what they care about is not going to be in the news coverage tonight because you don't care about it.
What you care about is this. And the Obama people know that. So they just spin you up on this and you happily go along. The people don't care about this. They never ask about it. And you are determined to take this election away from them. And that's not right. That is not right. This election ought to belong to those people who are out here asking questions about their lives.
Romney Once Admired McCain's Record In Washington
Who called John McCain: “… Washington’s number one watchdog against waste" ?
Yes, it was Mitt Romney, in Turnaround.
When Mr. Romney criticizes McCain for spending 24 years in Washington and accomplishing nothing, just bear in mind the political imperative.
Will Florida Come Down to Romney v. McCain?
Matt Towery, who knows something about the South, thinks so.
Where's Fred?
Rudy Giuliani, who seems to be spending as much time on Fox News as he does in campaign events in Florida, said of his efforts to talk to Sen. Fred Thompson:
"I haven't been able to reach him yet."
Hmm.
I was told that Thompson called McCain yesterday to brief him on the impending drop-out, but a source close to Thompson says no such call was made and that Thompson had no plans to make campaign-related phone calls.
From day one, the liberal media has criticized my strategy of focusing on delegate rich states like Florida. An unprecedented primary calendar called for an unconventional strategy. And it has paid off in a big way.
We are tied at the top in Florida polls, but ultimately this race is about more than rhetoric and flashy campaign ads. I'm running for President because I believe I have the best ideas and boldest vision to lead this country forward. I will get this economy growing again and put people back to work and I will keep us on offense in the Terrorists' War on Us.
With less than a week to go until Florida, and the polls showing me in a three-way dead heat, I need you now more than ever. Your gift of $10, $25, $50 or $100 will give me the momentum that will carry me to victory in Florida. Please ask your friends and family to do the same.
With the volatility in the stock markets leaving millions of Americans uncertain about the future, it's important that our next President have experience in turning around an economy in peril and putting people back to work. In New York, I was chief executive of the 17th largest economy in the world, cut taxes 23 times and cut a 10% unemployment rate in half.
Fred Malek Has A Blog
The gentleman is one of the biggest donors in the Republican Party, a behind-the-scenes-poo-bah, a major venture capitalist, a Vietnam veteran, and an opinion leader whose thoughts are worth reading.
The Dow
closed up more than 280 points today.
Obama Campaign Asks For Inquiry In Nevada
They're not contesting the results, but Barack Obama's presidential campaign wants Nevada Democrats to investigate whether Hillary Clinton's precinct captains broke caucus rules.
Robert Bauer, Obama's general counsel, writes in a letter to NV Dem chair Jill Derby to "conclusively and clearly" address what he terms a "disturbing pattern of incidents" that took place last Saturday.
Specifically, Bauer claims that the official Clinton precinct chair manual falsely stated that the doors to the caucus site be closed at 11:30, when, in fact, anyone still in line to register by 11:30 would be allowed in. The consequence was that many Obama supporters who followed the rules didn't get to caucus. (The Clinton campaign has noted, in response, that their manual makes clear that Democrats in the queue could still participate and have said the rest of their manual followed the letter and spirit of caucus rules.)
Bauer also details what he terms "voter supression" efforts by Clinton precinct captains. He writes that the campaign receieved more than 1,000 separate complaints.
There's no question that the Obama campaign is genuinely disturbed -- as is, by the way, the Clinton campaign, whose volunteers also recorded several hundred episodes of ne'er do-welling by Obama supporters and by the Culinary Local 266 in particular.
If the party investigates, the story of the shenanigan-filled caucuses stays alive.
The Whole World Cringes With You?
Ana Marie Cox wonders if this was Mitt Romney's "macaca" monent. My immediate reaction was: boy, am I embarassed to be a white guy right now. That Romney's mind went there -- and I've never heard him quote a rap song before -- suggests he's a little fogeyish and of a different generation... kind of a, "the kids these days, they listen to rap" thing.
The belated discovery by Republican candidates that Monday was MLK day... that's a bit more questionable in my book.
Ken Mehlman must be rolling over in his ... well, glitzy Washington office right now.
Ledgermain From The Clinton Campaign
Hillary Clinton's first negative contrast ad against Barack Obama in South Carolina is a masterful example of creative ledgermain.
The claim that Barack Obama praised Republican ideas or, in Clinton's words, found them "better" than Democratic ideas -- that is, the ideas themselves -- is false. Obama, in a meeting with a Reno editorial board, said that Republicans pushed new ideas to the the fore while Democrats were largely silent. That is, he praised Republicans for coming up new ideas. Nowhere did he say he preferred those ideas.
Now, it's perfectly plausible to contest the claim that Republicans came up with new ideas while Democrats didn't. But that's not the direction the Clinton campaign wanted to go.
The Clinton campaign knows it that if they repeated the claim that Obama just loved those ol' Republican ideas, they'd be lying.
So here is the script of their new radio ad:
VO: “Listen to Barack Obama last week talking about Republicans.
BO: “The Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time there over the last 10, 15 years.”
VO: “Really? Aren’t those the ideas that got us into the economic mess we’re in today? Ideas like special tax breaks for Wall Street. Running up a $9 trillion debt. Refusing to raise the minimum wage or deal with the housing crisis. Are those the ideas Barack Obama’s talking about?”
BO: “The Republicans were the party of ideas.”
VO: Hillary Clinton thinks this election is about replacing disastrous Republican ideas with new ones, like jumpstarting the economy. Putting an immediate freeze on foreclosures and mortgages. Cutting taxes for the middle class. and creating millions of new jobs. With the economy in crisis, we need a president with the ideas, the solutions that get america working for all of us. Hillary Clinton. Solutions for America.
The ad implies -- but does not say -- that Obama valued the ideas themselves. It implies, but does not say -- that he was praising Republican solutions. In doing so, the ad distorts the context of what Obama said without explicitly repeating the falsehood itself.
Word from Romneyville is that Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) has endorsed Gov. Mitt Romney, bringing to six the number of John McCain's colleagues who've fallen behind the former Mass. governor.
Here's the statement that Cochran plans to release:
"It is an honor to join Governor Romney and his campaign for our nation's highest office. At this moment our nation faces unprecedented challenges, and Governor Romney has the experience, vision and values needed to strengthen our country for future generations," said Senator Cochran. "Governor Romney is a man of outstanding judgment and strong character. I look forward to working with him and helping
Obama Vice Presidential Ticket Watch
Ex-Rep. Tim Roemer endorses Barack Obama....
Absentee Explosion In Florida
If there's a race, they will vote -- even if there are no delegates.
For Democrats, the number of returned absentee ballots in Florida so far exceeds the total number turned in in the 2004 general election, and the number of Democratic early voters plus the number of absentees requested is more than the number of actual voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada combined.
This means that despite the fact that NO Democrat is campaigning in Florida, no Democrat is advertising in Florida (except on cable) and the DNC is ignoring Florida, Democratic voters in Florida are organically excited about the primary race and their party's prospects for November, 2008 -- and are voting despite the temporal meaningless of their vote. That's pretty impressive... and it also poses a philosophical quandary: if a million Democrats vote next Tuesday in a meaningless primary, did they actually vote? What does the media say about them? What if one candidate wins by a large margin?
The state Democratic Party says that 96,286 absentee ballots have been returned, up from 93,909 in 2004. 100,000 ballots have yet to be returned. Combining the number of early voters (121,693) with the number of absentees requested, you get 316,940 -- more than the total Democratic vote for each of the three early states.
The party projects a turnout of more than 1,000,000.
Today's Tim Toles Cartoon
January 22, 2008
A New Clinton Video Slams Obama For Single-Payer...
The Obama campaign calls the video "dishonest." They say Obama has always said that he'd design a single payer system from scratch, if he could, but we're well beyond scratch at this point in our history.
The video evidence seems to show Obama squarely favoring a single-payer system now -- as in 2003.
I asked the Clinton campaign to provide more of the raw footage... so listen to it and judge for yourself.
The political point is that Obama says he's immune from attacks about inconsistency during the general election; if he's found to be inconsistent, or he appears to be inconsistent, it adds information to what voters know about him.
=
On Louisiana's Caucuses Tonight
Louisiana was thought to be a battle between Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney.
Romney has the support of two congressmen and announced teams in every district. It is winner take all by congressional district and majority receives at-large delegates.
It's the only Southern caucus, so conservative conservatives will probablt turn out.
This is Romney's to lose...
Another gold medal... albeit in the state equivalent of Olympic curling, but still...
As does CBS News Giuliani watcher Ryan Corsaro, who writes that Giuliani declined to endorse his surrogate's contention that John McCain was out of touch.
“I don’t believe that Republicans should be attacking each other. I think we should be pointing out our policy decisions. I supported the Bush tax cuts, John McCain voted against them, Mitt Romney was equivocal on them. That’s a difference, a policy difference. My tax plan, you can contrast it with their tax plan, it’s different. Some of it’s the same some of it’s different…”
And how's that working you, Mr. Mayor?
Some things to keep in mind:
(1) Maybe Giuliani knows that he has a reputation for nastiness and doesn't want to replenish the tanks for that stereotype.
(2) Maybe Giuliani really likes John McCain and doesn't want to hurt his feelings. Or maybe he believes that McCain will be the nominee and doesn't want to hurt him too much.
(3) Maybe Giuliani is content to let the surrogates have their way with McCain because that forces the press to ask Giuliani why he's not joining in, which forces the press to report the iniital slurs?
(4) Maybe Giuliani believes that if he keeps his message to policy, he'll rise above the fray. Problem is: McCain isn't really responding to Mitt Romney either. And, come to think of it, Romney's off in his own world of optimism.
Richardson's A Tease
The subject line of a Bill Richardson campaign e-mail is "My Endorsement."
Right?
But the body is just an appeal to retire his campaign debt.
Tom Brady With A Cast On His Foot?
Permit me one part Giantfreude and one part sympathy.
By The Way
The Louisiana Republican Caucuses are tonight.
Thompson's Candidacy In Retrospect
He was NOT lazy; his command of policy equaled or exceeded that of his rivals, and he was, as he said, pretty clearly a consistent conservative for his public life. But his staff was poorly managed; it started much too late; his campaign was riven by internal fueds and suspicions: one faction accused the other of leaking to reporters.
He had a nomination strategy that was plausible enough: do well in Iowa, build a bridge to South Carolina, earn delegates everywhere, defeat a single rival handily on Feb. 5 in the Southern states, and earn the establishment's backing.
Demographically, he alienated Republican women. Mike Huckabee effectively shut off his support in Iowa and South Carolina. In truth, he could have campaign a little more and emphasized retail, rather than stump speeches. He did not raise as much money as he could have, in part because so many donors wondered whether his heart was in the race.
And in many ways, he tried to occupy a space that John McCain more credibly occupied; national security strength, straight talk on the economic challenges facing the country and resiliency.
Thompson Drops: The Statement
"Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."
Where Rudy's At
I'm not prepared to declare Rudy Giuliani dead and buried, but I think Patrick Ruffini (who, a blue moon ago, worked for the campaign) is right: it's not so much that the Giuliani campaign's insight about Florida was incorrect; it was that the process of vigorously campaigning elsewhere would hurt Rudy more than help him. The converse is true: playing everywhere was the only way to build a constituency of Rudy supporters who would provide the noise and momentum and energy to help him in Florida.
Thompson Decides To Drop Out
Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson has told several Republicans that he has decided to drop out of the presidential race and will make public his intentions by close of business.
Thompson does not plan to endorse any rivals for now, even though one of his best friends is Sen. John McCain.
He's been visiting his mother, who is ill, in Tennessee.
Thompson Decides To Drop Out
Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson has told several Republicans that he has decided to drop out of the presidential race and will make public his intentions by close of business.
Thompson does not plan to endorse any rivals for now, even though one of his best friends is Sen. John McCain.
He's been visiting his mother, who is ill, in Tennessee.
No Rush To McCain Here
Just as there are conservative precincts warming to John McCain, the counter-reaction is growing just as furiously. Check out this excerpt from Rush Limbaugh:
We are supposedly damaging the conservative movement. We should just shut up. Just sit by and watch all this stuff and let it happen and just be quiet. What is the point? By the way, it's aimed at people in talk radio. Why should we in talk radio "just shut up," and start supporting the front-runner of the moment? Especially when you realize that's what the Drive-By Media wants! Why should we in talk radio sit here and take our marching orders from the Drive-By Media and others in our movement who write what they write, for liberals in the Drive-By Media. Why should we do that. McCain, frankly, has shown conservatives little but contempt over many years.
Wonder what happens if McCain is the nominee? If McCain was able to reconcile with John Courson, he can reconcile with Rush Limbaugh.
Obama Ties Clinton Changes To Politics
Jon Favreau pulled another all-nighter, and some crisper language against Hillary Clinton and the economy were the result:
In the debate last night, we spent some time talking about the economy. And one of the things I brought up that concerned me was that when Senator Clinton first released her economic stimulus plan, she didn’t think that workers or seniors needed immediate tax relief. She thought it could wait until things got worse. Five days later, the economy didn’t really change, but the politics apparently did, because she changed her plan to look just like mine.
It reminds me of what happened when we started debating the credit card industry’s bankruptcy bill – a bill that would make it much harder for working families to climb out of debt. Believe it or not, Senator Clinton said again last night that even though she voted for the bill, she was glad it didn’t pass. I know you can get away with this in Washington, but most of us know that if you don’t want to see a bill pass, there’s a pretty easy option available – you can vote against it.
And we’ve heard her say the same kind of thing about NAFTA and China trade –agreements that sent millions of American jobs – thousands from this very state – overseas. Because only in Washington could Senator Clinton say that NAFTA led to economic improvement up until she started running for President. Now she says we need a time-out on trade. No one knows when this time-out will end. Maybe after the election.
The point is – this is exactly the kind of politics we can’t afford right now. Not when the stakes are this high. Not when the economy is this fragile. Not when so many banks are foreclosing on people’s dreams. We can’t afford a President whose positions change with the politics of the moment, we need a President who knows that being ready on day one means getting it right from day one. And South Carolina, if you give me the chance, that’s the kind of President I’ll be.
In my twenty-five years of public service, my positions haven’t changed when the politics got hard, and neither will the policies I pursue as President.
While much of this campaign has focused on Senator Obama’s rhetoric, there has not been much attention paid to Senator Obama’s record. Last night, that changed. With the fireworks now receding, it’s time to focus on the substance.
From questions about his commitment to fiscal responsibility to his relationship with a donor currently under indictment to his consistency on key issues, last night raised new issues that the Obama campaign must confront today.
Senator Obama, for example, was the only member of the Illinois State Senate to vote present on a bill that would have increased privacy protections for victims of sexual assault. Senator Obama claimed he sponsored that bill and only voted present because of "a legal provision in it that was problematic and needed to be fixed so that it wouldn't be struck down." But the reality is that he did not sponsor the bill and more than seven years after it became law, the measure has not been struck down. It was one of almost 130 present votes that he cast as a state lawmaker.
Senator Obama claimed that suggestions he does not pay for his spending proposals are false. But in fact, he has failed to say how he would pay for over $50 billion worth of the new programs he discusses on the campaign trail.
Senator Obama asserted that the Clinton campaign has suggested he was not really opposed to the war in Iraq. In fact, the Clinton campaign believes Senator Obama opposed the war – we are simply taking issue with what he did – or did not do – to end the war after he gave his speech in 2002.
As an attorney, Senator Obama represented now-indicted influence peddler Tony Rezko in his efforts to develop government-subsidized slum housing. Interestingly, Senator Obama has thus far failed to return all contributions associated with Mr. Rezko, which included money that was given through straw donors or obtained from Illinois taxpayers.
Senator Obama voted against an amendment that would have capped credit card rates at 30%. Senator Obama says he voted against the limit because it was “too high.” And today there is no cap at all on interest rates.
Finally, Senator Obama said last night that he “never said we should go ahead and get a single payer system.” But the reality is that he said exactly that when he was running in the primary for the U.S. Senate in 2003.
It's Hard Out There For Conservatives
Containing political panic over the economy is hard for professional conservatives in Washington -- those who spend their days thinking about, writing about, debating conservatism, especially when there's a presidential race on the candidates are facing real voters in town hall meetings.
The Pro-Cons will caution patience. And the candidates will be on hastily-called telephonic conferences with policy advisers asking for help: "What can I say that won't anger the Pro-Cons? Are there are any arrows left to fire?"
When economic crises intervene, politicians are expected to do something or say something, and Democrats, because they can keep increasing the tab on their stimulus packages, often have more to say. Though Republicans are running to head the government, their antipathy to government intervention and regulation, based in part on philosophy and principle, in part on the need to psychically separately themselves from the other party and in part on the need to pander to their donors -- closes off many avenues for amelioration. (Indeed, there's even an interesting and non-academic debate about whether crises ought to be ameliorated -- most stimulus plans tend to kick in too late -- and the preference for monetary intervention over fiscal policy is hard to explain on the stump.
For the most part, Republican presidential candidates are not addressing wealthy voters on the stump; they are not addressing professional conservatives; they are not addressing upper-income voters who've spent time assimilating the intellectual case for a conservative
economic response.
Compounding maters, the Republican brand is no longer synonymous with fiscal discipline -- no brand is, really -- and attempts to make that attribute paramount are, again, probably more likely to please the Pro-Cons than satiate the concerns of the real-life cons(ervatives) who can read Stephen Moore with one hand and feel tremors with the other because they can't afford the mortgage.
Responses vary. Mitt Romney is optimistic. "**Every time i see things get scary, I put aside fear and say, aha is this a buying opportunity." Along with the usual corporate rate cuts, he has not ruled out additional government spending. He seems to have an inner force that directs him to assess problems and solve them. With health care in Massachusetts, he seems to have come to terms with a balance between pragmatism and political ideology, and he has sacrificed the former for the latter -- arguably a good thing. (He also wants to reduce taxation on investment, which would arguably increase savings, which is kind of the opposite of a stimulus package.)
Whipping out a tax cut, as Rudy Giuliani does, measuring it, and then bragging about it could easily be seen as cartoonish and one-dimensional. As in -- he's a guy who doesn't hang around with people who can't afford their mortgages; moreover, his instinct is to punish and instruct, rather than to help; and I'm kind of looking for a way out of this mess, right now, and not at the person who'll wave the biggest tax cut in front of my face and proclaim that an economic plan. There is more to Giuliani's economic vision than this, but he has a tough time communicating it.
Fred Thompson exemplified conservative toughness, and his economic policy was roundly praised by those who professionally test economic policies for their conservativeness, but, alas, he is out of the race.
John McCain communicates well on national security and is hit-or-miss on economic policy. He hhas admittedly, plainly, that he doesn't know as much about it as do the other candidates.
Who gets the better of the day?
Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) Endorses Obama
The chairman of the Homeland Sec. committee and implementer of the 9/11 Commission recommendation is on a conf. call right now throwing his support behind Sen. Barack Obama's candidacy.
"I looked at the field. I think your message resonates with a lot more of the American people," he said to Obama.
Romney's Latest: "Conservative Change" in Florida
The Fed Panics
Kind of getting the feeling that a three quarters of a point rate cut might wind up panicking the markets, rather than calming them.
January 21, 2008
Fertile In Myrtle
Clinton and Obama, two heavyweight boxers, touched their gloves AFTER they bashed each other's head in. Edwards was part-Mills Lane, regularly separating the combatants and sending them to their corners -- and part wrestling heel, interfering at random, scoring points when the others were busy focusing on personal grievances.
The headlines will be about suppressed heat between Clinton and Obama boiling over, althohttp://38.118.71.136/cgi-bin/mt/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&id=35803&blog_id=49&saved_added=1
Fertile In Myrtle | Entries | Marc Ambinder | Movable Type Enterpriseugh that moment was more entertaining and informative.
(Both Clinton and Obama's campaigns are touting the exchange, for what it's worth.)
Once that was out of their systems...
The conversation tonight was almost about all the general election; who could voters trust? who could turn the page? who best represents the Democratic Party? who could beat John McCain?
"If Sen., McCain is the Republican nominee," Sen. Clinton said, "we know that we will have a general election about national security. I believe that of any one of us, I am better position and better able to take on John McCain or any Republican when it comes to protecting our national security and promoting America's interest in the world."
Obama "fundamentally disagrees with that." The "way we are going to take on a John McCain on national security...is somebody who can serve a strong contrast who can say, we've got to overcome the politics of fear in this country. As commander in chief, all of us would have responsibility to keep American safe, what I do believe is that we have to describe a new foreign policy that says, I will meet, not just with our friends but with our enemies."
Obama called Clinton's approach "the same fearmongering they've been engaged in since 9/11."
I could write that John Edwards debated as if he had the most to gain, but he always does that. He can't resist the parenthetical aside, which often undermines or obscures his argument. For example: when arguing that he was the most electable candidate in the field, more electable in rural areas outside the major cities, he just had to look back at Obama and Clinton and mention that, boy, not only was he NOT talking about race, he kind of felt weird as a white male being forced to explicitly deny having thought about race. The truth is that Edwards, representing white, working class males, would appeal to candidates who are less comfortable voting for black or women candidates. And by insisting that race has no place in the argument, he puts race into the argument, probably unintentionally.
Obama pointed out that he performed well in non-urban areas of Nevada, and, on the issue of faith -- "I am a proud Christian, and I think there have been times where our Democratic Party did not reach out as aggressively as we could to evangelicals."
Obama spent the first forty minutes of the debate defending policy. On the one hand, the more Obama debates policy, the less he has to argue that he has the substance to match Clinton. On that same hand, the debate was also helpful to Obama in that it gave him a chance to answer a month's worth of charges from his opponents...charges he answered more or less effectively...certainly effective enough to the voter unfamiliar with the ins and outs of policy. But for the five minute period when both he and Clinton seemed disinclined to filter their facial expressions and excited utterances -- an exchange where Obama looked too hot -- his annoyance and anger overwhelmed his normal solitude, and Angry Obama is never as attractive as cool Obama. Their sound-bite-generating bandinage a wash; a tie goes to the runner, here, and if Clinton is the frontrunner, Obama is the runner, here.
Clinton and Obama had a fascinating argument about corporate lobbyists, trial lawyers and campaign finance. It probably amused John McCain.
For the second debate in a row, both Obama and Clinton went out of their way to insist that the Democratic Party is not divided by race and that the debates of the past two weeks were, political, yes, but not damaging. We will see.
So who won?
Obama really didn't have to show up, but he did -- taking nothing for granted. A passel of tough questions were posed, and he seemed to nail just about every one of them.
John Edwards is a spectacular debater, but in thinking fast, he often undermines the flow of his arguments by pointing out how great he is. Still, he more than proved that he cannot be ignored and still is a stronger candidate than the recent primary contests would suggest.
Hillary Clinton was still Unplugged. I kind of like HRC Unplugged.
Civility
When the candidates are standing up at podiums, they tear into each other like rabid dogs.
When they're seated in those hideous orange chairs, they're friendly, solicitous and generous.
Mixing It Up
The candidates tend to explain their policy decisions using short tern and the lingua franca of the Senate, which makes it hard to referee these disputes. So the candidates who refuse to jump in usually wind up looking better. And John Edwards is looking better.
BTW: this is the first time Obama's "present" votes have been brought up in a Democratic debate...something the Clinton campaign has been flaying for months.
Obama is under the heaviest scrutiny tonight... Edwards seems him as the thing standing between himself and Clinton.... Clinton wants to start a longer conversation in the Feb. 5 states about whether Obama is all hat and no cattle.
Bet Edwards Will Win The Focus Groups Again
He is dominating the debate so far...extremely well informed on the subjects he's being asked, and he seems to be relishing his role as the third wheel...because the two fighting children are forced to listen to him.
Again, on points, he seems to win these debates.
Why don't people who like Edwards after watching debates vote for him?
Obama Takes His Gloves Off
Obama and Clinton jab back and forth....arguing, talking over each other...
Barack, Barack, Barack, Hillary, Hillary, Hillary
Obama: "You just said that I complimented the Republican ideas. That is not true. Ronald Reagan is a transformative political figure because he was able to get Democrats to vote against their economic interests..."
Then this:
"When I was out there working in the streets, seeing people losing their jobs, you were a corporate lawyer sitting on the board of Wal-Mart."
Obama: "I did say we've got to be thinking in the same transformative way.."
Clinton:
"I was fighting when you were practicing law and representing ...Rezko...the slum-landlord in Chicago."
Edwards; "This kind of squabbling: how many people are going to get health care because of this?"
Clinton Responds To Obama On The War
"Your record and what you say does matter. When it comes to a lot of the issues that are important in this race. It is difficult to understand what Obama says because as soon as he is confronted about it, he says, that's not what I really meant."
...
"You gave a great speech in 2002 opposing the war in Iraq... that was not a point of our criticism...by the next year, the speech was off your website...by the next year, you were voting to fund the war time after time after time."
Way To Sound Like A Regular Person, Sen. Obama
"There are a set of assertions made by Sen. Clinton and her husband that are not factually accurate."
No, Rep. Joe Wilson didn't forget to endorse John McCain last week.
In point of act, his endorsement, which McCain will receive tomorrow in person in South Carolina, is more of a testament to the Republican establishment's beginning to coalesce around McCain, and it's arguably more important now -- right now -- when McCain is making his argument to conservatives -- than it would have been in the midst of South Carolina.
Rudy Drills In On Taxes
So says the Giuliani policy shop in an escalation of their campaign to drive a clean contrast with Sen. John McCain.
Brian Rogers, a McCain spokesman, responded:
Rudy Giuliani has a record of opposing tax relief. He actually endorsed liberal Democrat Mario Cuomo for governor because he opposed George Pataki’s tax cut plans, which Giuliani said at the time were too large. He also left Mayor Bloomberg with a fiscal mess, including a budget deficit of over $2 billion. That’s not fiscal responsibility.
It's hard to figure out, in an era of deficit spending and earmarks, what a fiscal conservative actually is. To the extent that John McCain opposed the first Bush tax cut and expressed mildly populist reasons for doing so, that's kind of a strike against him for those who want absolute purity on the issue. Rudy Giuliani's record is no less opaque, though, and in politics, it's not very easy to create a contrast where none really exists.
Contemplating this fight at a different level, Giuliani's playing bean-bag politics, and McCain is playing with dodgeball. Doesn't his argument right now -- I'm ready to be president -- render any specific attacks against him fairly harmless. Taxes didn't work as an argument against Mitt Romney; they haven't really hurt McCain elsewhere. Indeed, the only state where McCain's argument played against him was in Michigan, where Mitt Romney's burst of optimism trumped McCain's sociopolitical realism.
Fred Thompson.....?
There's no official word from Fred Thompson's campaign about when or if the candidate will drop out.
Several Thompson associates have been led to expect a formal announcement of sorts in Washington, D.C. as early as tomorrow.
We will see.
Rudy, Romney Release Spanish Language TV Ads
Some lessons from the Democratic race so far....
For enough Democrats, Clinton represents enough change... Obama represents more change, certainly, but the perfect isn't the enemy of the good when there are other factors to consider.
Organization matters. Obama seems to have won Iowa because he had months to do hundreds of rallies and perform his special brand of magic in person; his campaign spent a lot of money per voter (and per young voter, in particular); he simply out-hustled her in a state where hustling matters.
The biggest evidence for this interpretation is that he did everything in New Hampshire he did in Iowa, but at much less of a magnitude; a state that was arguably more favorable to him demographically (a highly educated, wealthy Dem electorate) proved resistant because he did not have the same time to wear down their resistances. In other words -- to get enough to buy a real change message in this age of skepticism takes a lot of time and energy, and he did not have it in New Hampshire.
Experience matters. In 2003, experience, and the lack of a well-funded alternative, carried John Kerry through New Hampshire, through a loss in South Carolina, all the way to the nomination. What we called "momentum" turned out to be "no clear, acceptable alternative." In 2008, the Democrats do have an acceptable, well-funded alternative, albeit one with a transformative message. Is there enough time in California, Alabama, Georgia, New York, Arizona, Missouri.. to do what he did in Iowa?
Also: the anti-war energy in the Democratic Party, first kindled in 2002, has dissapated as a political force. Democrats still favor a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq, but enough time has elapsed since 2002 to allow the strong feelings to attenuate, and the party has turned inward since then. Iraq is no more than an applause line right now.
** The swing constituency seems to be college educated women, who have a complicated relationship to Hillary Clinton and the babyboomers. Iowa won these women in Iowa, according to estimates, and Clinton won them (narrowly) in New Hampshire. They vote in large numbers in major Feb. 5 states.
** Perestroika works! Hillary Clinton's new habit of three press avails per week, one-on-one interviews with network correspondents on requests, answering questions after every speech -- it seems to have loosened up her press corps a bit, she certainly seems very comfortable doing it, and her accessibility has allowed the Clinton campaign to make sure that Clinton drives the daily headlines.
January 20, 2008
The Dirty Caucuses
Jon Ralston:
Hey, guys, with this day-after tit for tat, can this be over now?
Clinton won; Obama lost. Could Obamaites stop with the sour grapes, and
could the Clintonites try for the gracious winner act?
Ok, but there were massive organizational problems with the caucuses in your state, and someone ought to be held accountable for them.
Obama: Clinton Won Dirty.... Clinton Campaign: Obama Lost Dirty
One thing is clear: Nevada has to figure out how to do a better job next time.
Barack Obama's campaign is accusing Hillary Clinton's of deliberately violating caucus laws to prevent late-arriving Obama voters from participating.
Obama's campaign counsel, Bob Bauer, said: ""There was a clear disenfranchising effect. We want a full review of this."
He said the campaign received more than 300 complaints from folks who were not allowed into caucus sessions even though they had been in line to register by 11:30, the stated time. The campaign obtained what it said was a copy of Hillary Clinton's caucus manual and what it said were misleading instructions to caucus chairs.
One entry says: "11:30: Deadline for registering (or standing in line to register) to participate in the Caucus. And then: "11:30: Caucus chair closes door."
Nevada Democratic Party rules say: "In order to participate in the Nevada State Democratic Party Caucuses, attendees MUST be in line, or signed in, by noon. At noon, Presidential Preference Cards should be given to any person in line, and after that point, no Presidential Preference Cards should be given to any new arrivals, as they will not be allowed to caucus."
Clinton's campaign just held a conference call alleging that Obama precinct captains engaged in the same type of shenanigans. "As a result, many of our supporters were harassed and intimidated when they tried to register at the caucus," said Robbie Mook, Clinton's Nevada state director.
Mook said the team had discovered "numerous instances of miscounting" to Obama's benefit.
Clinton senior adviser David Barnhart said he was at the Mirage at-large caucus heart and "witnessed...voter intimidation." He said that many union workers told him that they would not be given permission to take a break from their jobs and caucus unless they voted for Obama. He said one woman was told by supervisor that she would not be given preferential shifts unless she voted for Obama.
Barnhart said that before the caucus began, Obama's team formed a "gauntlet" and tried to "intimidate" voters as they entered the caucus room.
Mook said the Obama campaign's allegations were "completely false, and frankly, pretty desperate."
Obama At The Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta
Some pretty powerful speech-making:
And yet, if we are honest with ourselves, we must admit that none of our hands are entirely clean. If we’re honest with ourselves, we’ll acknowledge that our own community has not always been true to King’s vision of a beloved community.
We have scorned our gay brothers and sisters instead of embracing them. The scourge of anti-Semitism has, at times, revealed itself in our community. For too long, some of us have seen immigrants as competitors for jobs instead of companions in the fight for opportunity.
Every day, our politics fuels and exploits this kind of division across all races and regions; across gender and party. It is played out on television. It is sensationalized by the media. And last week, it even crept into the campaign for President, with charges and counter-charges that served to obscure the issues instead of illuminating the critical choices we face as a nation.
So let us say that on this day of all days, each of us carries with us the task of changing our hearts and minds. The division, the stereotypes, the scape-goating, the ease with which we blame our plight on others – all of this distracts us from the common challenges we face – war and poverty; injustice and inequality. We can no longer afford to build ourselves up by tearing someone else down. We can no longer afford to traffic in lies or fear or hate. It is the poison that we must purge from our politics; the wall that we must tear down before the hour grows too late.
Because if Dr. King could love his jailor; if he could call on the faithful who once sat where you do to forgive those who set dogs and fire hoses upon them, then surely we can look past what divides us in our time, and bind up our wounds, and erase the empathy deficit that exists in our hearts.
There is a young, twenty-three year old white woman named Ashley Baia who organizes for our campaign in Florence, South Carolina. She’s been working to organize a mostly African-American community since the beginning of this campaign, and the other day she was at a roundtable discussion where everyone went around telling their story and why they were there.
And Ashley said that when she was nine years old, her mother got cancer. And because she had to miss days of work, she was let go and lost her health care. They had to file for bankruptcy, and that’s when Ashley decided that she had to do something to help her mom.
She knew that food was one of their most expensive costs, and so Ashley convinced her mother that what she really liked and really wanted to eat more than anything else was mustard and relish sandwiches. Because that was the cheapest way to eat.
She did this for a year until her mom got better, and she told everyone at the roundtable that the reason she joined our campaign was so that she could help the millions of other children in the country who want and need to help their parents too.
So Ashley finishes her story and then goes around the room and asks everyone else why they’re supporting the campaign. They all have different stories and reasons. Many bring up a specific issue. And finally they come to this elderly black man who’s been sitting there quietly the entire time. And Ashley asks him why he’s there. And he does not bring up a specific issue. He does not say health care or the economy. He does not say education or the war. He does not say that he was there because of Barack Obama. He simply says to everyone in the room, “I am here because of Ashley.”
By itself, that single moment of recognition between that young white girl and that old black man is not enough. It is not enough to give health care to the sick, or jobs to the jobless, or education to our children.
But it is where we begin. It is why the walls in that room began to crack and shake.
And if they can shake in that room, they can shake in Atlanta.
And if they can shake in Atlanta, they can shake in Georgia.
And if they can shake in Georgia, they can shake all across America. And if enough of our voices join together; we can bring those walls tumbling down. The walls of Jericho can finally come tumbling down. That is our hope – but only if we pray together, and work together, and march together.
Brothers and sisters, we cannot walk alone.
In the struggle for peace and justice, we cannot walk alone.
In the struggle for opportunity and equality, we cannot walk alone
In the struggle to heal this nation and repair this world, we cannot walk alone.
So I ask you to walk with me, and march with me, and join your voice with mine, and together we will sing the song that tears down the walls that divide us, and lift up an America that is truly indivisible, with liberty, and justice, for all. May God bless the memory of the great pastor of this church, and may God bless the United States of America.
Common Sense, From Nevada
## Hillary Clinton probably won the "popular vote" by a larger margin than six percentage points ... because Obama probably received the lion's share of re-allocated votes from Edwards supporters in non-viable precincts.
## The news media seems to think that this means that Clinton won Nevada.
## Based on the demographic/turn-out sensitive delegate allocation formula, Obama won 13 delegates to Clinton's 12. This process is neither democratic, in that the power of one person's vote differs from another's, nor republican, in that the person who is preferred by the largest number of Nevadans can, in the end, not receive the majority of the delegates.
The Obama campaign also points out that because the nomination can only be secured if a majority of national delegates are accumulated, it matters who wins the delegates. Ok. But zero delegates have actually been pledged... so if, by the Obama campaign's own definition, the winner of Nevada ought to be determined by delegates, we'll have to wait until April 19 to see how the national convention delegates are apportioned. If Obama and Clinton are still in the race at that point, then those delegates are pledged to Obama.
## Unless we're headed to a brokered convention, Nevada's delegates will probably not matter.
## So is the Democratic primary a fight over delegates? At the lowest level of abstraction, yes. But at a higher level of abstraction, it's about expectations; it's about the marriage of popular vote performances by the winner and the will of the candidate who does not receive the support of a majority.
## Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns have accused each other of playing dirty; there's no question that the party machine, mostly in the corner of Hillary Clinton, had an incentive to help her, and that the Culinary Union bosses had an incentive to help Obama. There is no evidence, as of yet, of any organized effort to disenfranchise anyone.
## Expect trench warfare until Feb 5., if not beyond.
January 19, 2008
McCain Wins
McCain!
Why?
(1) Five years of hard work by McCain, consultants Richard Quinn and John Weaver in upstate South Carolina....the endorsement of the Greenville, SC state senator...apologizing to Falwell...
(2) demographics: growth in Charleston, Midlands and Horry county...
(3) The surge worked...and McCain stayed in the news...
(4) Rick Davis slims down the campaign, keeps staff in SC, but focuses on NH
(5) Thompson saps conservative votes from Huckabee...
(6) Romney's decision to pull out at the last minute...Giuliani's decision to pull out earlier...
(7) Veterans, enough Republicans and independents...
** More from exits, courtesy of CBS News: McCain, Huckabee tie for self-ID'd Republicans; McCain wins independents...Huckabee wins native-born South Carolinians...and evangelicals (41 to 28)....
***Thompson prepares to exit race...."While we're waiting, I wanted to come hear and speak to you from my heart...to tell you how much I appreciate you and how Jeri and I are blessed to have friends like you... I want to thank Jeri, who's been my strong right arm...We will always be bound by a close bond, because we have traveled a very special road together for a very special purpose. It's never been about me. It's never even been about you. It's been about our country...Our country needs our party to step up...but we need to remember that we need to deserve to lead...Federalism underpins everything we do"
"I'll try to simplify - the 25 national convention delegates will be apportioned later. What networks and wire services are doing is extrapolating to national convention if all remains the same. Obama did very well outside Clark County and delegates are apportioned by congressional district - hence the delegate advantage. But this is all about perception now and Clinton will use the win going into SC and Super Tuesday. She also will try to energize Hispanics against Obama by using that Unite HERE Spanish-language ad that ran at the end. Clinton won Nevada, and Obama's claim of an advantage of one among delegates that amount to a tiny fraction of delegates will only matter at a brokered convention."
Clinton Campaign Strikes Back...
... at critics (like MSNBC's Chris Matthews), by sending around a compilation of expectation setting quotations. Two of them:
MSNBC’s Chris Matthews – ‘It just seems to me if Hillary Clinton wins this one… she’s back in the lead big-time.’ “It just seems to me if Hillary Clinton wins this one, after all the hoopla and hopes in some quarters about Barack Obama winning two in a row… that she’s back in the lead big-time.” [MSNBC Hardball, 1/18/08]
Obama National Feild Director Temo Figueroa 'The Nevada election is going to come down to: Whoever gets the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union, more than likely, is going to win Nevada' [Politico, 1/10/08]
By the way -- the AP, so far, still reports that Obama won 12 to Clinton's 13.
Obama Won More Delegates Than Clinton In Nevada?
Obama Campaign Cries Foul
Ah, democracy at work. Hillary Clinton was the clear preference of a plurality of Nevada Democrats, but Barack Obama won more delegates -- 13, to Clinton's 12, Obama's campaign says.
What's a win? The Obama campaign is trying to spin Nevada as a dirty win for the Clintons. (You can imagine this line from Obama: "Do you want dirty politics? Then vote for Hillary If you want honest politics, vote for me.")
Alternatively, they're going to point out that the Clinton campaign has said many times that the nomination is, at its roots, a delegate contest. The idea here is that Obama did well outside of Clark County and in the rural areas of the state.
Obama received the same number of delegates in New Hampshire as Clinton. But Clinton has more "superdelegates" on board and an overall delegate lead.
Obama Manager Accuses Clintons of Widespread Dirty Politics
David Plouffe, in a succinct statement appended to a released quotation from his boss, Barack Obama, said the Obama campaign was investigating more than 200 reporters of irregularities in Nevada.
“We currently have reports of over 200 separate incidents of trouble at caucus sites, including doors being closed up to thirty minutes early, registration forms running out so people were turned away, and ID being requested and checked in a non-uniform fashion. This is in addition to the Clinton campaign’s efforts to confuse voters and call into question the at-large caucus sites which clearly had an affect on turnout at these locations. These kinds of Clinton campaign tactics were part of an entire week’s worth of false, divisive, attacks designed to mislead caucus-goers and discredit the caucus itself."
Plouffe asks Nevadans to call a toll-free number, (866) 675-2008, and report any other problems.
Obama, for his part, said he "ran an honest, uplifting campaign in Nevada that focused on the real problems Americans are facing, a campaign that appealed to people’s hopes instead of their fears."
A Unique Clinton Memo
To: Interested Parties
From: Patti Solis-Doyle and Mark Penn
Date: Saturday, January 19, 2008
RE: Huge Victory in Nevada!
** Campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle tells us: "This was a great win. There is a lot of work left to do. We're looking forward to working for every vote in the coming primaries and caucuses."
** Clinton wins Hispanics...64% ... good sign for Feb. 5 states...
** Clinton won six of nine at-large precincts...Jon Ralston: At Wynn precinct, HRC and Obama tie on first ballot...wins Clark county by 12%...Turnout exceeds 100,000
** HRC's Macker on MSNBC: "This is a huge win for us. Coming in with probably a five point disadvantage..."
** Obama adviser Susan Rice: "We're still the insurgent campaign..."
** Exit polls for SC starting to leak online, but I won't post them here...
Exit poll data, courtesy of CBS News and CBS News.com. (For more updates, click here.)
** Economy is top issue (48%)...followed by health care and war on Iraq..
** 28% were union members -- divided vote b/w Clinton and Obama
** Clinton wins women (52 to 30) AND ties men...
** More valued change than experience, but of those who valued experience, NINE of TEN backed HRC, while FIVE in TEN change-preferences backed Obama
Nevada / South Carolina Live Wire
Romney Wins Nevada Caucuses
CBS ESTIMATES THAT CLINTON WINS ....
** Dems: Obama, Clinton run strong early on...Clinton leading Clark County with 9% in....
....Romney looks "forward" to Florida...will run on "economy"....has 3 golds and 2 silvers and the delegate lead...all his wins come with delegates. AND a *but*....and McCain campaign sends around video of NBC's O'Donnell calling Romney's win "in name only"..... (She is wrong: Romney wins delegates. How's that "in name only," NBC?)
** Edwards campaign says that a supporter went to a caucus at Charles Silvesti Middle School...and is told outside that Edwards isn't viable.
..
Obama's manager sends out memo lowering expectations...says Clinton campaign has engaged in "systematic effort" to discredit the caucuses...
Our hope is that today’s caucus comes off without a hitch and as many people as possible participate, however we remain concerned that the tactics of the Clinton Campaign and their allies in recent days have confused voters and could lower participation.
** Bill Clinton alleges voter intimidation. Per an ABC pool report:
Well, we were worried about people, even more people, being prevented from voting if they were voting for Hillary. Because yesterday Chelsea and I were going through one of the hotels here someone was going behind us saying if you vote for Hillary we are going to give you a job assignment that keeps you from going to the caucus. And haven’t sent tactics like that in decades.
So here are the delegate allocation formulas for those special, at-large precinct caucuses today on the Las Vegas Strip.
Basically, can get the same number of delegates with a turnout of 400 as you can with 800. That cuts against the whole premise that the delegate allocation here is based on turnout for THIS caucus since there is no history.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus does not exceed 400, divide the total number of attendees by 5. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 1 – 80.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 401 and 600, divide the total number of attendees by 8. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 50 – 75.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 601 and 800, divide the total number of attendees by 10. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 60 – 80.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 801 and 1400, divide the total number of attendees by 15. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 53 – 93.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 1401 and 2000, divide the total number of attendees by 20. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 70 – 100.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 2001 and 3000, divide the total number of attendees by 30. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 67 – 100.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 3001 and 4000, divide the total number of attendees by 35. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 86 – 114.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus exceeded 4000, divide the total number of attendees by 50. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will be at least 80.
January 18, 2008
Martinez to Endorse McCain?
Word from Florida is that Sen. Mel Martinez will finally be able to do what he's been wanting to do for a while: endorse Sen. John McCain.
A joint appearance is on tap for Monday in South Florida, according to two Florida Republican sources, although Martinez is under pressure from GOP fundraisers to hold off, and he may back out at the last moment..
Martinez, like McCain, was on the side of Pres. Bush during the immigration debate in Congress, and only in Florida -- after South Carolina -- would such an endorsement help McCain politically.
No comment from official McCain sources.
But Magic Johnson Was An Awesome Rookie...
Moments after I posted a link to a new Hillary Clinton radio ad in South Carolina featuring Magic Johnson implying that Obama is a "hyped...rookie..." several Obama spokesfolks responded with a ream of statistics and video clips pointing out how Johnson was one of the awesomest rookies ever.... so which lucky Obama researcher got to spend time surfing the sports sites today?
Magic Johnson Became The First Rookie In 11 Years To Start In The NBA All Star Game And The First Rookie To Win The NBA Finals MVP. “In 77 games Johnson's numbers mirrored those of his days at Michigan State (18.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 7.3 apg). He became the first rookie to start in an NBA All-Star Game since Elvin Hayes 11 years earlier.” Johnson also became “the first rookie ever to win the Finals MVP Award.” [NBA.com, Accessed: 12/18/07]
Johnson’s MVP-Winning Performance in 1980 Playoffs Game 6 Is “The Stuff of Legend,” Saved the Team From a Hometown Loss When The Star Abdul-Jabbar Was Injured. “In the 1980 NBA Finals against the Philadelphia 76ers, Johnson's performance in the series-clinching sixth game was the stuff of legend. Abdul-Jabbar was sidelined with a badly sprained ankle sustained during his 40-point effort in Game 5. Up 3-2, the Lakers could wrap things up on the 76ers' home court.
Enter Johnson, the 20-year-old rookie. Assuming Abdul-Jabbar's position at center, Johnson sky-hooked and rebounded the Lakers to victory with 42 points, 15 boards, seven assists and three steals. He even jumped for the opening tap. Johnson became the first rookie ever to win the Finals MVP Award. The stunning effort exemplified his uncanny ability to do whatever the Lakers needed in order to win. In the Los Angeles Times, Westhead said of his amazing rookie: ‘We all thought he was a movie-star player, but we found out he wears a hard hat. It's like finding a great orthopedic surgeon who can also operate a bulldozer.’” [NBA.com, Accessed: 12/18/07]
Watch some of that famous game here...
The Democrats Spar Over Reagan's Legacy
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have spent a few days sparring over over Ronald Reagan and the conservative movement.
Obama has said this before, in different words: Here's the original remark, from a meeting editorialists in Reno:
“I think Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not and in a way that Bill Clinton did not. He put us on a fundamentally different path because the country was ready for it.”
To which John Edwards responded: "I would never use Ronald Reagan as an example of change," and Hillary Clinton said today:
"I have to say, you know, my leading opponent the other day said that he thought the Republicans had better ideas than Democrats the last ten to fifteen years. That's not the way I remember the last ten to fifteen years."
The campaigns upped the ante with dueling surrogate calls, and Bill Burton, Obama's silver-tongued spokesman, told reporters:
"“It’s hard to take Hillary Clinton’s latest attack seriously when she’s the one who supported George Bush’s war in Iraq, the most damaging Republican idea of our generation. While others were triangulating and poll-testing their positions, Senator Obama has been fighting for progressive ideals for over two decades,”
I’m reminded of a conversation I had with Obama’s best friend, Marty Nesbitt, last summer.
Nesbitt told me about a bull session a few years back where Obama told him that among the political figures he admitted was Ronald Reagan.
“When he told me that about Ronald Reagan, I said , what?” Nesbitt told me. “I was like every other Democrat. But Barack told me, no, he really had something that inspired the company and brought it together. I may disagree with him on policy, but he was what American needed at that moment in history. “
Nesbitt was using the point to illustrate why Obama decided to run so early in his political
career. Like Reagan, for Obama, “personal traits intersected with the historical moment.”
BTW: turns out that HRC thinks Reagan was a great president too.
Clinton "Brings The Magic" To South Carolina
A new radio ad in South Carolina from Sen. Hillary Clinton.... Magic Johnson implies that Barack Obama is a "hyped" "rookie" who needs more seasoning. Check it out:
This is Magic Johnson. On the court and in life, successful leadership comes from hard work and experience. That’s why I’m endorsing Hillary Clinton for President. We have great candidates this year, but I believe only Hillary is a proven leader, with 35 years’ experience dealing with challenges facing America. Are you looking for better jobs, universal health care, better treatment for veterans, opportunities for your children? Then you want Hillary Clinton for President. My rookie year, we won our first game on a last second shot. I was so hyped. But the captain of my team said, “take it easy rookie, it’s a long season, it’s a long road to the championship.” He was right. Winning comes from years of hard work and preparation. Whether it’s winning championships or a President who can lead us back to greatness, I’ll always want the most prepared and experienced person leading my team. That’s why I’m asking you to join me in voting for Hillary Clinton for President.
Romney's Sons Play A Joke On Him
Latest South Carolina Poll
Fox News's latest:
(500 voters, +/- 4%)
Insider Advantage, a Georgia-based firm, notices a last-minute Huckabee surge:
There's word that ex-President Bill Clinton will spend all of next week in South Carolina... though it's not clear whether Sen. Hillary Clinton will spend every day here....
This Is Cute
Endorsement Update
Two interesting endorsements this a.m.
Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-CA) endorses Barack Obama:
"Since I began serving in Congress five years ago, I have seen the difficulty in bringing fresh ideas to Washington, DC, and to our country. Sadly, great talent and ideas are too often dismissed because those who possessed them were seen as too idealistic, too young, or too unwilling to submit to the same old Washington way of doing things. Senator Obama is the candidate who can change that culture by mobilizing a new generation to get involved in the civic life of our country. He is reinvigorating America by showing us that we all have a stake -- and a say -- in our democracy and our country's future.
And John McCain was just endorsed by the co-founder of National Right To Life, Dr. Carolyn Gerster.
"John McCain is the most qualified candidate and has a consistent and principled pro-life record," said Dr. Gerster. "He has spent his career standing up for human rights and he will continue to do so as president. John McCain will nominate judges who understand the sanctity of human life, and firmly believes that courts should not be legislating from the bench. John McCain has the conviction, strengths, and experience to serve as commander in chief from day one and that is why he has my vote."
Romney Takes A Leno Break
He'll fly to Burbank and appear on the writer-less show tonight...
Check Out This Ad... Running Throughout South Carolina
Sen. Lindsey Graham is being primaried by RNC member Buddy Witherspoon. Witherspoon is running a very harsh right now on spot and cable throughout the state: it literally features about twenty seconds of pictures of Hispanic people and Spanish-accented voices saying “Lindsey Graham, Lindsey Graham.”
Thought For The Morning
It will be interesting to see whether Republican candidates will publicly disagree with President Bush if there are items in his stimulus package that they object to… any direct government transfers to individuals, for example.
The Table: Michael Bloomberg
Is he for real? What's his deal? Can he spend his own money on a vice presidential run?
January 17, 2008
CBS News Exclusive: Ad: Hillary Is "Shameless"
CBS News has obtained the negative radio ad against Hillary Clinton.... Unite Here is the author... it's in Spanish. Listen to it here.
McCain's Latest Ad In South Carolina
(The McCain does, in fact, send reporters a YouTube link of their ads... but my spam filter likes to eat those e-mails, so apologies to J.H. and B.R.)
Fred Thompson's 60 Second Closing Argument
UNITE Here Divides Itself From The Clintons In Nevada
This is a translation of the harshest ad of the cycle on the Democratic side. It's on Spanish-language radio in Nevada, being run by Unite-Here, the parent union of the Culinary Workers' Local 266. Both parent and child have endorsed Sen. Barack Obama:
"Hillary Clinton does not respect our people. Hillary Clinton supporters went to court to prevent working people to vote this Saturday – that is an embarrassment. Hillary Clinton supporters want to prevent people from voting in their workplace on Saturday. This is unforgivable! Hillary Clinton is shameless. Hillary Clinton should not allow her friends to attack our people’s right to vote this Saturday. This is unforgivable, there is no respect. Senator Obama is defending our right to vote. Senator Obama wants our votes. He respects our votes, our community, and our people. Senator Obama’s campaign slogan is “Sí Se Puede, Sí se puede.” (“Yes We Can”). Vote for a president that respects us, and that respects our right to vote. Obama for president, “Si Se Puede” (“Yes We Can”)."
Here's what's striking. Unite-Here is a powerful national labor union. Hillary Clinton has as good a chance as Barack Obama at being the next Democratic nominee, and then, if the nominee, a good shot at being the next president. And while it would behoove anyone to frown on UNITE Here if they decided to run an ad touting Obama or even an advertisement disputing Hillary Clinton's position on a policy, the union has decided to directly attack Clinton's character.
It's a sign that while the Democratic Party is more united than ever, the union movement is riven by discord, and many of its major reform efforts have failed. There have been many more inter-and-intra union spats this cycle. My guess is that arguments about immigration, trade, ethics and the economy are being fought by proxy, with Obama, Clinton and Edwards standing in for archetypes of where the union movement ought to go.
Note that the plaintiffs who challenged the caucus's at large precincts were members of the state education association, an affiliate of the National Education Association. Another teachers' union, the American Federation of Teachers, did not intervene in the dispute and has run only positive ads on Clinton's behalf. In New Hampshire, an affiliate of AFSCME, the public employees' union which has endorsed Hillary Clinton, ran radio ads criticizing Barack Obama's health care plan, ads the Obama campaign finds misleading. And several Service Employees state affiliates and the Carpenters' union funded a pro-John Edwards campaign in Iowa.
The Latest GOP Television Ads
1. John McCain launches an ad in SC called "Character in Spades." Unfortunately, the McCain campaign has a habit of not sending around YouTube links, so I'm just going to be churlish and provide the link. The ad, oddly defensive, seems to be designed to respond to that fringe anti-McCain Vietnam protest group whose claims are receiving almost no attention at all.
2. Mitt Romney's first television ad in Florida since he went dark there two weeks ago.
"I keep hearing the same thing, that Washington is broken.I hear the people say they think we deserve health care for all our citizens, but not government health care and that hasn’t been done. They say we ought to be able to get a reduction in the burden on the middle class, and that hasn’t been done. They say we ought to solve the immigration problem in this country. It hasn’t been done. If you send the same people back to Washington just to sit in different chairs, nothing will happen. I will change Washington. I will take it apart and put it back together. I know how to bring change. I’m Mitt Romney and I approved this message."
3. And -- did you know that George Will once said something kind about Rudy Giuliani? Here's the latest Giuliani ad in Florida, which seeks to make a subtle distinction with Mitt Romney on taxes and is a preview of sorts for the type of fight we're sure to see in a week or so. The ad concludes with a quote from Romney himself, who said Giuliani has a "great record" of cutting taxes.
Nevada's At-Large Precincts Ruled Legal
Sorry to be late with this, although you Twitter subscribers of mine would have seen it earlier... a Nevada judge has upheld the at-large precincts drawn for the benefit of the Obama-choosing Culinary Workers -- nine out of 520 -- and it's not clear whether the plaintiffs -- four of whom voted for the caucus plan in the first place -- will appeal. (The at-large precincts account for a bit over 6% of the total delegate counts.)
Per Obama spokesman Bill Burton:
"We're glad that the Nevada court upheld the Nevada Democratic Party's caucus plan which encourages voter participation. While the Clinton campaign clearly believed that the voices of workers should be silenced in service of their perceived political interest, they enjoyed a twenty five point lead two months ago and have much of the party establishment in their camp."
Hillary Clinton's campaign just released a disapproving statement:
"Make no mistake --the current system that prohibits some shift workers from being able to participate, while allowing others to do so, would seem to benefit other campaigns. More importantly it is unfair. The Obama campaign has been clear in its belief that whoever wins the culinary union endorsement will win Nevada. We will leave it up to the people of Nevada to make that decision."
Mitt Romney V. Glen Johnson
You political insiders will like this. The rest of you can ignore it.
Huckabee Seeks $300K Offering Immediately
From a campaign e-mail:
I’m writing you as we travel between events here in South Carolina. This is important, so please take a minute now to hear me out.
Chip Saltsman, my national campaign manager and I just reviewed our final get out the vote plan. While we feel it is a strong plan, we have isolated one area that needs strengthening and immediate improvement. We want to increase our voter identification and turnout calls and the price tag for these additional calls is $170,000.
Will you make an immediate contribution of $15, $25, $50, $100, $250 or even $500 today online to help us fund this effort?
We have set a goal of raising this money by tonight at midnight so we can ramp up our calls in time for the South Carolina primary. If your financial support comes in after this deadline we won't be able to invest it in time for the South Carolina primary.
Clinton To Campaign In Georgia
She's going to attend the party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Atlanta on Jan 30, according an e-mail just received from the state party.
McCain, Romney Offer Cattle Prods To The Economy
John McCain's we know about; Romney's will be unveiled in short order. (Remember: Fred Thompson thinks economic stimulus plans are kind of girly).
McCain would chop the corporate tax rate from 35% to 25% -- some sort of cut is common to all the Republicans. He'd allow a first year deduction of tech and equipment investments and give a 10% tax credit equal to the first 10% of the investment a company spends on R and D.
Interesting that McCain, while supporting an extension of the Bush tax cuts, does not list them in his plan.
Edwards Campaign Continues Media Tweaks
Yesterday, it was a press release complaining that Edwards didn't receive his fair share of coverage. Today, the campaign is trying to wound the media's sense of pride by pointing out that Frank Luntz's focus group preferred Edwards' debate performance.
Edwards has a point of sorts, although the campaign's verging on whiny about it. Edwards has a rationale to stay in the race if he keeps accumulating delegates, and as the only Southerner, has a shot to win some of the Feb. 5 contests.
But, if we were playing Jeopardy! and Edwards, Clinton and Obama were listed as the three choices, the question would be: "Who Is John Edwards?" (and why does he belong in this category?)
The Wizard Of Bain Capital
The Atlantic’s Joshua Green and Megan McArdle discuss the business experience of Mitt Romney. An Atlantic podcast.
Democrats Say Their Voters Are Being Urged To Show Up This Saturday
Carol Khare Fowler, the chairperson of the South Carolina Democratic Party, didn't think she'd have to hold a press conference to inform Democrats to vote in the Democratic primary.
But that was before party officials received queries from confused Democrats yesterday.
It seems that hundreds of them received phone messages urging them to show up THIS Saturday and vote, and that the Democratic and Republican primaries would both be held on the same day.
(Not true, of course: The GOP votes this Saturday and the Democrats vote next Saturday, and if you vote in one primary, you can't vote in another.)
Someone is playing a dirty trick.
A sign of the times: instead of following the roadshow to Nevada, the Romney campaign is keeping its chief counsel, Ben Ginsberg, in South Carolina in case there are any last minute shenanigans.
The X Game: Jan 17
It's hard to keep track of who is supposed to do well and who is supposed to do poorly -- and who is setting those expectations. So here is a handy guide... updated as warranted.
X = Expectations.
I'm A Twit(ter)
Falling prey to the fashion. Click on my new Twitter page to see which candidates I'm going to see today.
Obama's Latest Senator Endorsement
Sen. Barack Obama's fourth Senator in a week: it's Sen. Pat Leahy of Vermont.
The Atlantic's Boldest
(A dept. of corrections).
1. A headline yesterday substituted "hear" for "here" -- thanks to the senior Democratic official who pointed this out.
2. Yesterday, I wrote that John McCain finished a strong third in Iowa. Not true. He finished fourth to Fred Thompson.
3. Bill Clinton ranted about Nevada's delegate allocation process to a reporter in California, not Nevada.
Making Trouble, Michael Bloomberg?
This sounds kind of big. New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's office is making all sorts of noises about two major announcements: one on Friday in Austin, Texas, the other Saturday in Los Angeles.
A spokesman wouldn't say what the heck was happening.
But the guests provide a clue: in Austin, Bloomberg will be joined by ex-surgeon general Richard Carmona and Lance Armstrong. In California, he'll be joined by Pennsylvania Mayor Ed Rendell and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for a "joint infrastructure announcement."
New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg
What: Joint Announcement Regarding Infrastructure
When: Saturday, January 19, 2008 (specific time between 10:00 AM at 12:00 PM Pacific to be announced)
Where: Los Angeles, California (specific location to be announced)
-30-
Contact: Stu Loeser / John Gallagher (NYC) (212) 788-2958
RNC May Consider Tighten Calendar Rules
Four Republican primary contests in the bag having produced three different winners may dampen talk of a radical GOP calendar re-alignment for 2012.
But Michigan’s outsized role so far indicates to some party leaders that its enforcement mechanisms might not work. The state was punished by the RNC for deciding to schedule its primary in January – half its delegates were taken away. Clearly, Michigan is still relevant. So is South Carolina.
The RNC’s rules committee meets today to consider, among other items, how the party will punish calendar violators in 2012.
One proposal would take away all delegates but two from a state.
Which proposal ultimately survives may depend on whether the members of the RNC rules committee are happy with the identity of their nominee… or the identity of the person they assume will be the nominee.
In April, when Republican state chairs meet, the party will consider three different proposals to change the calendar itself. (Those plans will be informally presented today.)
The Michigan plan, written by state chair Saul Anuzis, would see a series of six rotating regional primaries with states chosen by lottery. The two others, one offered by Texas and one by Ohio, would also group states into small bunches and rotate primaries among them.
In late August, the rules committee will submit its proposed schedule and enforcement plan to the full Republican National Committee, which will mark it up and amend it. And then the delegates to the Republican National Convention get to decide.
Although there was staff-level contact between the RNC and the DNC earlier this year, there has been no recent communication.
The RNC rules committee chair is long-time party veteran David Norcross, who said in a statement that “in the midst of the 2008 campaign, it’s the RNC’s role to ensure that not only are the Party’s current Rules enforced, but that we are reviewing this process in advance of the 2008 Republican National Convention.”
The chairman of the RNC, Mike Duncan, said: ““The Republican Party has always been a Party of rules. The RNC is moving forward with the process that our Party unanimously voted into place in 2004. This process will be reviewed and leading into the 2008 Republican National Convention, we will make a recommendation concerning the process for 2012.”
January 16, 2008
The Day In Politics: Republicans
COLUMBIA, ORANGEBURG, CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA -- In his first few events here, an energetic John McCain's veered sharply to the right as he faced a barrage of attacks from rivals. And Mitt Romney started his final two-day swing through the Palmetto State by instantly lowering expectations. Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee, fighting for faith conservatives, trained accusations at each other.
McCain, speaking in Greenville this morning, cited to an audience in Greenville his career pro-life stance, saying his opponents are willfully distorting his record.
McCain's rivals believe that McCain's advisers want to exaggerate the amount of attacks against him in order to replicate the charged environment of 2000, only with a McCain more outraged and more ready to respond.
But it is true that supporters of Mike Huckabee are telephoning McCain supporters in the state with the message that McCain is really pro-choice.
Drew McKissick, a South Carolina conservative activist, sent an e-mail blasting McCain's support for embryonic stem cell research and his status as a leader of the "Gang of 14" who brokered a compromise over judicial nominations in the Senate. Romney's campaign blasted McCain in a research briefing entitled "Defeated by Defeatism."
At a Romney event in Charleston, his staff openly acknowledged that he would not finish first here. He is not running television ads here. His crowds are not large, although about 50 braved an ocean's chill for an hour to hear Romney give a brief version of his stump speech this afternoon. Tomorrow, he flies to Nevada for two full days of campaigning.
(above: waiting for Romney)
McCain's campaign is also re-airing an ad that plays to cultural conservatives. It mocks an earmark Hillary Clinton obtained for a Woodstock museum in New York.
An adviser to Huckabee told CBN's David Brody, so far as McCain was concerned, "the gloves are off."
Thompson was asked about about rumors he was a shill for McCain. He denied these and blamed Mike Huckabee's campaign for spreading them. Thompson's campaign later accused Huckabee of flop-flopping on the desirability of a national smoking ban.
The Associated Press reported that Huckabee softened his floated proposal to stop immigration from countries who harbor terrorists. "''I think we just need to do a more thorough job of ensuring that when people come here, and they come from nations that the State Department has designated as terrorist nations, that we are diligent in background searches,'' he said, per the AP. Huckabee's campaign promised a major endorsement in Charleston on Thursday.
Uncommitted In Michigan: An Alternate View
From reader Michael Simon:
I have to respectfully disagree with your assertion that the fact that
45% of Michigan Democrats voted for Uncommitted over Hillary Clinton
"is not all that significant." It completely blew expectations out of
the water, shocked the organizers of the Uncommitted movement, which
sprung up in only about two weeks, and disappointed the Hillary folks
in Michigan, who were extremely nervous about getting less than 60% of
the vote.
A long series of articles over the course of the past week have talked
about the low-end 60% bar for Hillary, and pollsters, political
scientists, and pundits in Michigan said that anything less than 60%
for Hillary would be shocking. For example, see:
*Detroit News: "Pollsters say N.Y. senator may face embarrassment if
she falls below 60% against 'uncommitted' on Dems' ballot."
http://detroitnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080114/POLITICS/801140354/1022
*Huffington Post: "[Political Science Professor Stewart] French, who
specializes in political parties and elections, considers 60 percent
to be the threshold for declaring a Clinton victory. But such a win
will be hollow."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tag/hillary-clinton-michigan-campaign
*NPR: "Election experts have said that if Clinton doesn't get at least
60 percent of the votes cast, it would be a black eye for her
campaign."
http://www.npr.org/blogs/news/2008/01/michigan_democrats_want_uncomm.html
*The Jackson Citizen Patriot: "The impact of this vote is limited,
but...[w]hat if she wins Michigan with only 60 percent of the vote?
How will the pundits -- and more, important, donors to her and Obama's
campaign -- react?"
http://www.mlive.com/elections/index.ssf/2008/01/democratic_primary_still_worth_1.html
You get the point...
Additionally, to say that the exit polls show that Hillary still would
have won with a double-digit margin isn't quite accurate. A vote for
Hillary in the Michigan Primary should not be given the same weight as
an Uncommitted vote. Clearly asking someone to turn out and vote for
an actual living, breathing candidate is radically different from
asking them to turn out and vote for Uncommitted. Given how difficult
the concept of the delegate race, seating at the convention, etc.,
etc., is to even people who are political geeks like you and I, you
can imagine how this just doesn't translate to your average voter.
Thus, the sample of voters that showed up to vote in the Caucus is
extraordinarily skewed towards Hillary -- she was the only candidate
of any significance on the ballot, and I can't think of any other
incident in recent political history where something like this
happened (and Ben Smith at Politico seems to agree, saying "[t]here's
no real precedent for this vote."
[http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Michigan_results.html]) I
know that the folks involved in the "Uncommitted" effort were shocked
by the result. Certainly they had no money to do any polling, but
didn't expect to even clear the 15% viability threshold in all but a
couple of Congressional Districts. In the end, were Michigan's
delegates to be seated, they would be almost evenly split between
Hillary and Uncommitted.
The Day In Politics: Democrats
** Obama accused Hillary Clinton of distributing a misleading flier about his Social Security plan, claiming that she, too, once put raising the cap on payroll taxes on the table. In a press conference, Clinton accused Obama of supporting a "trillion dollar increase on the middle class." The Clinton campaign later held a press conference about Obama's health care plan. Clinton's policy director, Neera Tanden, said that Obama's plan would leave "50,000" people uninsured in Nevada.
** Bill Clinton blew up at a Nevada television reporter who asked him about the lawsuit against at-large precincts drawn by the state Dems to benefit the culinary workers.
"Do you really believe that all the Democrats understood that they had agreed to give everybody who voted in a casino a vote worth five times as much as people who voted in their own precinct? Did you know that?" Mr. Clinton said in a testy exchange with a television reporter, Mark Matthews of KGO. "What happened is nobody understood what had happened. ... Now, everybody's saying, 'Oh they don't want us to vote.' What they really tried to do was to set up a deal where their votes counted five times, maybe even more."
** More than 1,500 supporters greeted John Edwards at an event in Reno. The campaign claims that turnout surpassed their expectations.
** The Edwards campaign also complained about media coverage, sending around a study showing that Edwards received a disproportionately small amount of news coverage and implied that the drought in media was responsible for his standing in the national polls.
** Obama's campaign manager telephoned Chris Cillizza and talked him off the Nevada ledge.
** Hillary Clinton's Hill Force One took off today for the first time. And Clinton played flight attendant, per CBS's Fernando Suarez. (Who wrote this for her?)
“In a few minutes I’m going to switch off the fasten seatbelt sign,” said Clinton. “However, I’ve learned lately that things can get awfully bumpy when you least expect it, so you might want to keep those seatbelts fastened. And, in the event of an unexpected drop in poll numbers, this plane will be diverted to New Hampshire. “If you look out to the right you will see an America saddled with tax cuts for the wealthy and a war without end. If you look out to the left you’ll see an America with a strong middle class at home and a strong reputation in the world.
Hear (And See) This Actual Pro-Huckabee, Anti-Thompson Push Poll
The Republicans: What We've Learned So Far
Four primaries and three winners have exposed, according to the dominant media, a Republican party that is listless, demoralized and casting about for unity.
There aren't many Republicans who would disagree.
Here are some thoughts on what can be learned from the first two weeks in January:
(1) Enthusiasm trumps organization. In Iowa, Mike Huckabee had the most enthusiastic supporters, measured empirically; in Michigan, Mitt Romney did; in New Hampshire, John McCain did. In Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney's organization was like a Fortune 500 company compared to his opponents' mom-and-mom shops. (I'm counting the "unofficial" Huckabee pastor networks in the enthusiasm column.) In the absence of a compelling master narrative, voters have turned to the folks they just plain like.
(2) Momentum seems to skip the next state up and seems to benefit the person who exceeded expectations, rather than the winner. This is a common enough trend. Though Mike Huckabee got no bounce in New Hampshire or Michigan, he's shot up in South Carolina and Florida. McCain received some energy after his fourth place finish in Iowa. As each state takes it turn in the spotlight, voters seem to become more resistant to the previous contests and more independent.
(3) Economic anxiety is prevalent and pervasive and growing, and Republicans who fail to understand this and respond creatively to it will do poorly. Remember, what professional conservatives -- i.e, those who spend their day's work being conservative, either as strategists or writers or lobbyists -- think a candidate should do is not what Republican voters seem to expect them to do. In South Carolina, Mike Huckabee may wind up receiving support from the same white working class demographic that might have supported a Dick Gephardt candidacy in 1988.
(4) Republicans don't seem receptive to a national message; they seem to prefer candidates who run like governors, who inspire feelings of solidarity, who cater (or pander) to their anxieties.
(5) Mitt Romney's ability to tap his own fortune has influenced every race in every state more than just about any single factor. His ability to flood Michigan with television spots helped him; he did well (enough) in New Hampshire mostly because of his television; he's going to be competitive in Florida because of his television.
(6) Good campaigns matter, but candidates unfettered matter more. Huckabee was unfettered in Iowa; McCain felt at home in New Hampshire; Romney was a Michigander -- each man bonded in states whose electorates seem to have been created just for them.
(7) Playing everywhere works, so far. Mitt Romney has a delegate lead and will probably have a delegate lead until (at least) the Florida primary regardless of what happens in South Carolina or Nevada.
(7) Former McCain chief strategist John Weaver's instincts may be proven right, after all. Running McCain as a conservative, helping him to heal relationships with professional conservatives, acknowledging, and then plotting to crush the South Carolina firewall, believing that Rudy would ultimately flame out as a candidate, believing that Thompson's appeal would be narrow...
(8) The three dimensional chess games that are the Democratic and Republican nominating contests have not influenced each other, so far -- Rudy Giuliani did not get a pass for skipping Iowa because Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton, for example, something that Giuliani's campaign hoped would happen.
(9) As a corollary, the national political press corps seems capable of covering two competitive races at once and has not unduly focused on arguably more exciting Democratic contest.
(10) The RNC's sanctions against Michigan, South Carolina and Florida did not prevent them from remaining competitive.
The Table: On Bill Clinton
The Table Gang debates Bill Clinton and his penchant for filling the interstitial space of his wife's campaign.
South Carolina Updates
** Eric Fehrnstom, Mitt Romney's traveling press secretary and institutional memory holder, tells CBS's Scott Conroy that he'd be "shocked" if Romney won South Carolina.
** John McCain's been endorsed by the Myrtle Beach Sun News; he's up with this new ad in the state. And yes, the background visual is the same as usual.
** Mike Huckabee will attend an "immigration pledge ceremony" in Greenville today. Not sure whether that's a pro-immigrant thing or an anti-undocumented worker thing, but I'm guessing, because it's Greenville, that it's the latter.
Michigan And Clinton
To me, it is not all that significant that 44% of Michigan Democrats did not vote for Hillary Clinton. For one thing, Fox News polled Democrats and found that, had all the names been on the ballot, she would still have won by a double-digit margin. For another, there were plenty of paid efforts to gin up the uncommitted vote. And nowhere in the country does Clinton currently command a majority. So Michigan's results are unremarkable. There is some good news for Obama: 73% of the uncommitted Dems say they'd have preferred him.
The one trouble spot for Clinton is obvious: 70% of black voters sampled chose "uncommitted." The sample size was small -- I'm guessing about 300 or so of the exit poll sample were black -- but it's a sign that Obama has consolidated the black vote in Michigan and probably elsewhere.
Do not be surprised to see the Clinton campaign begin to rachet down expectations in South Carolina on the theory that if people expect Obama to win here, his win won't be seen as all that and a bag of chips.
Just Asking...
Why, precisely, do we, the media, not believe that John Edwards could win Nevada?
Because I think he could win Nevada...
Incidentally: my guess, based on what I've seen, heard and read, is that the results will bebunchedtogether and that no one will be able to declare victory.
DNC Intervenes In Nevada At-Large Lawsuit
The Democratic National Committee has filed a motion to intervene in the lawsuit brought by teachers union against the Nevada Democratic Party's plan for at-large precincts.
This means that the DNC wants to preserve the principle that state parties can determine their delegate selection rules, and then, having chosen those rules, submit them to the DNC for the approval.
A DNC official said the motion was filed because procedurally, it was the only way the party could file a brief in support of the party.
"Obviously, we support the Nevada state party and the previously recognized right of the national parties to set the rules for the nominating contests,"
The DNC fought Florida Democrats in court who charged that the DNC's decision to reject the Florida party's delegate selection date amount to an equal protection violation. The court sided with the DNC.
A judge was set to rule on a temporary restraining order yesterday...
BTW: it seems as if the DNC and the Clinton family are on the opposite sides of this debate.
A Nifty Map Of Michigan
Here's how the wonderfully-named Nicholas Beaudrot spent his early morning:
Thought For The Morning
Does Momentum Matter At All?
Obama got none out of Iowa
HRC seems to have gotten some (but not a lot) out of NH
Huckabee got none out of Iowa in New Hampshire but some in SC and FL
McCain got some in SC and CA and FL but none in MI
Coburn To Endorse McCain
CHARLESTON -- The McCain campaign is touting a major endorsement tomorrow set for Greenville, South Carolina.
It's Sen. Tom Coburn, the Senate's resident earmark curmudgeon and staunch social conservative / doctor.
The campaign hopes the endorsement will kick-start four days of intense campaigning here with a jolt of momentum that yesterday's Michigan primary did not provide.
January 15, 2008
The Dems Debate: Nevada Nice, No News
Nevada Nice; No News.
Everyone did well; a credit to the Democratic Party and their candidates.
The candidates played in the smaller sandbox very nicely, thank you. They said many nice things about each other as they did drawing distinctions, chiming in at moments to get that last word in about the failures of the Bush Administration. “I really commend Barack for taking on
the full range… etc.)
Both Clinton and Obama needed the racial paroxysm to end; both were eloquent and seemed genuinely interested in calming their supporters down. Fortunately for Obama, his conciliatory manner reflected his campaign message very nicely.
Clinton’s acceptance of Bob Johnson’s clarification statement will raise eyebrows – the guy was clearly referring to something that wasn’t activism – but Obama did not want to press the point.
All three of the candidates seemed comfortable with their stations; there was much less jockeying for ideological space than usual.
The sparks flew when the debate turned to local issues.
Clinton got the better of an exchange on Yucca Mountain, making sure to drive home the point that John Edwards twice voted in favor of the nuclear waste repository. NBC made sure that Obama was held to account for his record, asking about his vote for the 2005 energy bill, for instance, and even about scurrilous e-mails claiming he’s a Muslim. To Obama’s credit, he did not pander or shy away from his possible support for nuclear power, provided it could be generated safely and cleanly. Clinton had a few other jabs at the ready, calling the ’05 energy bill, which Obama supported, the “Dick Cheney energy bill…” and said of renewable energy, “it’s not going to happen by hoping for it.” She won these exchanges on points, in part because her tone was measured, and in part because the moderators did not give Obama the chance to respond.
Barack Obama seems very comfortable talking about real people and their real issues. As he’s done more of these debates, he’s been able to sound more like a father and less like a law professor. The ratio between ethereal talk and issue talk was about 50/50 for him. Hillary Clinton had a fine night; her ration was about 80 parts issue to 20 parts message; John Edwards, as usual, had the clearest message and tried to distinguish himself from his opponents , but he was tripped up on nuclear fuel and Yucca Mountain. Some of his answers were unusually treacly.
80% reporting...Romney: 39%....McCain: 30%.....Huckabee: 15%.....Giuliani 3%....
IM "Marc Ambinder" or e-mail mambinder@theatlantic.com with tips
ROMNEY WINS
Michigan's home boy brings in a gold....
Says victory of "optimism" over "pessimism"....
On to South Carolina and Nevada
Romney does not use "gold" in his victory speech...
McCain calls Romney to congratulate...
Giuliani adviser: "Race is fluid..."
McCain adviser: "Anyone who wins two of the three out of NH and SC goes on to be the winner..."
McCain jokes: "Thought this would get easier..."
Evangelicals made up 40% of the vote...Romney tied with Huckabee among them...
CBS News estimates HRC "win" in Michigan (but remember: no delegates, no opponents except for "uncommitted.".. Big win, though...more than 64%....uncommitted bid failed, despite radio ads from Rep. John Conyers and efforts by Obama/Edwards union allies in the state....
Early spin from McCain campaign adviser:
"Tonight’s outcome doesn’t affect our game plan. John McCain has the momentum and a consistent message that’s resonating in South Carolina and Florida, where we believe the nominee will be decided."
Las Vegas Review Journal endorses Obama...(but activist Dems don't like that paper....)...
ONWARD: McCain looks to Florida, South Carolina...
On Fox News, Romney spokesman Kevin Madden claims "Gold Medal" in Michigan....
Huckabee campaign opens first office in Florida... in Orlando...Wednesday...
Clinton campaign plans major phone bankling in South Carolina Wednesday.....highlighting women...
Clinton, Obama and Florida Democratic Party in memo-war... Obama campaign sends memo to "interested parties" -- i.e., the press -- urging them not to report Clinton's MI victory tonight as a victory..... Clinton campaign responds with memo noting that Obama team offered tacit support to those who pooled to vote for "uncommitted" against Clinton and that "The people of Michigan and Florida have just as much of a right to have their voices heard as anyone else." And Florida Dems project that 1,000,000 Dems will vote in the delegate-less Florida primary anyway.
Huckabee's "amend the Constitution to impose the Bible's will" remarks circulate through seculars...had been overlooked in the hub-bub....
NBC: Supreme Court Of Nevada Axes Kucinich From Debate
So it'll be Edwards, Obama and Clinton alone.
Michigan Primary: The Dems
The Sage
...
** Exit polls show backlash against Hillary Clinton among black voters... Almost 70% of black voters in the Dem sample chose uncommitted and only 25% chose Clinton. (She's leading overall -- beating uncommitted by, like, 40 points)... Remember: Michigan's Dem primary doesn't matter b/c Clinton's name is the only one on the ballot and there are no delegates, but one can read these numbers as a sign of trouble for her among black voters.
**Fox News asks Dems who'd they vote for if Clinton was on the ballot: Clinton got 48%, Obama got 34%, Edwards got 15%.
**Russert hints that race questions will be asked tonight....
Michigan Primary / Dem Debate Wire
Conservatives choosing Romney...
The Sage
...
**Fox News asks Dems who'd they vote for if Clinton was on the ballot: Clinton got 48%, Obama got 34%, Edwards got 15%.
**Russert hints that race questions will be asked tonight....
.Kucinich and NBC battle at last minute for debate access.....ruling expected soon...
** Romney plans SC campaign day Wednesday, Nevada on Thursday.....
** McCain campaign in SC denounces "smear" from Vietnam Veterans Against McCain group; fliers sent to reporters take issue with McCain's Navy record....
** McCain arrives in Charleston, SC....
Michigan Primary / Dem Debate Wire
The Sage
Early Exit Poll Trends
Buzz words: The Economy. Republicans. Issues.
** A majority say the economy is their top issue; nearly 70% say the US economy is poor
** More (57%) care about issues than leadership qualities (40%)
** 68% of voters in the Republican primary identified as Republican; a quarter said they were independents and 7% said they were Democrats.... (in 2000, only 45% said they were Republican)..
** 44% say they decided in the final week
GOPers: McCain Raises $1.2M Since New Hampshire
Republican fundraisers and sources close to John McCain's campaign say he's brought in $1.2M since his victory in New Hampshire, a sum his campaign would not confirm.
Michigan Primary / Dem Debate Wire
The Sage
... is in beautiful Charleston, South Carolina, a stone's throw from 110 Meeting House, where satellite trucks already crowd the parking lot and where John McCain hopes to declare victory in the Michigan primary. This space will feature up-to-the-minute info from Michigan and the usual streaming commentary on the Democratic debate in Nevada. Check here for commentary from all of the Atlantic Voices.
McCain brings "Lucky Congressman" to the polls.....Hoekstra: Huckabee's still playing the religion card....Turnout seems light....
In Nevada, Jon Ralston reports that the plaintiffs suing to put the kibosh on at-large precincts on Saturday would drop their suit if the precincts were given their proper (meaning lower) number of delegates. But a compromise is unlikely.
The Table: Unorthodox Republicans
Our latest installment of The Table, featuring Ross Douthat and Matt Yglesias and me.
Clinton, Obama, Blacks And Hispanics
The Times' Adam Nagourney and Jennifer Steinhauer write today on Barack Obama's Latino outreach and the battle for California.
The roots of the tension are economic and cultural: black voters worry that Latinos are taking their jobs, undercutting their wages, and usurping their political power. The tension creates its own reaction, and is exacerbated by the fact that the Latino population in California is booming while the black population is both more stagnant and increasingly geographically fragmented, as blacks move out of central L.A., San Francisco, and Oakland into the suburbs).
This tension was very visibly on display in the 2007 race to succeed the late Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald (D-Long Beach), in which a black candidate, Assemblywoman Laura Richardson, and a Latino candidate, Senator Jenny Oropeza, squared off on more or less explicitly racial lines. (Richardson won.) The black establishment in L.A. was vehement that they couldn't afford to lose a "black seat."
The media can oversimplify the tension. Latino candidates, for instance, are certainly capable of winning black votes -- think of Antonio Villaraigosa, now a Clinton endorser, who capitalized reasonably successfully on black dissatisfaction with Mayor Jim Hahn after Hahn dismissed black police chief (now city councilman) Bernard Parks. Villaraigosa apparently got 48% of the black vote in 2005, up 28 points from his unsuccessful run against Hahn in 2001.
A keen analyst of California politics writes:
I also think the media is overstating the degree of Latino solidarity for Hillary Clinton. To my mind, the Clintons aren't unusually beloved by Latinos in California, not the way they are by blacks. (Keep in mind that a healthy minority of Latino voters probably weren't citizens even as recently as the Clinton administration.) Hillary's lead among Latinos is, I suspect, just an artifact of the fact that California voters and Latino voters were until recently paying even less attention to the election than other voters nationally.
Newt On Rudy
Who would have thought that, of the three leading Republicans, Rudy Giuliani would least threaten the conservative establishment?
The Final Michigan Track
Steve Mitchell's final Michigan tracking poll shows Mitt Romney with 36%, John McCain with 29% and Mike Huckabee with 12%.
The Romney campaign believes that if the percentage of independents or Democrats who vote in the Republican primary is kept below 20%, they've got a good shot.
They are wary, though, of predicting what would happen if Romney were to fall to McCain. Reporters can write "Lazarus Rises" just so many times, and even though the media in Michigan has been very good to Romney, the national press is not inclined to give him a third shot if he earns yet another silver.
New Hampshire and Michigan, in that order, are Romney's best states. Michigan's perhaps the only state where Romney can run what amounts to a gubernatorial message campaign. McCain's heavy emphasis on national issues and national security plans better almost everywhere else.
Oh Brother...
A Romney staffer's mother plays herself in the real-life campaign stop: "Romney Visits Economically Anxious Family." It's like when TV producers find an aunt with the medical problem du jour....
Rep. Charlie Rangel seems to call Barack Obama "stupid."
The Clinton and Obama economic stimulus plans seem to be making Democrats on the Hill a bit nervous.
Is it possible that accusing Obama and his campaign of playing the race card might create doubt in the minds of the moderate, independent white voters who now seem so enamored of the young black senator? Might that be the idea?
First, this whole show seems stale and deranged to the younger set, as Obama and Clinton seemed to recognize when they damped down the feud yesterday afternoon. The interesting split is not between the feminist and civil rights Old Bulls, it’s between the establishments of both movements, who emphasize top-down change, and the younger dissenters, who don’t. Second, this dispute is going to be settled by the rising, and so far ignored, minority group. For all the current fighting, it’ll be Latinos who end up determining who gets the nomination.
Clinton's Next Five Fundraisers
Had Clinton not won New Hampshire, these flood gates would still be closed:
Currently, Clinton has fundraisers scheduled for Jan. 22 in Washington, D.C., Jan. 24 in New York, Jan. 27 in Miami, Jan. 31 in Los Angeles and Feb. 1 in San Francisco.
Clinton Daily Talking Points
Campaign Talking Points
Over the last few days, the Obama campaign has distributed recent
comments from Senator Clinton and President Clinton to suggest that they
were diminishing Senator Obama's candidacy and casting aspersions on the
legacy of Martin Luther King.
Both Senator Clinton and President Clinton have devoted their lives to
helping people of all races and genders create better lives. With Dr.
King's birthday upon us, it's important to keep in mind that his true
legacy is about the things that bring to together not tear us apart.
Sen. Clinton invoked Dr. King because he was someone who understood
that words need to be combined with action in order to change lives.
There are media reports that the Obama campaign is distributing a memo
in an effort to sensationalize and drive this story. This is
unfortunate, especially coming from a campaign that says it is about
bringing people together.
Nobody wants to see the injection of race or gender into this campaign.
Both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama are running as individuals. It is
absolutely extraordinary that the two leading candidates for the
Democratic nomination for president are an African-American and a woman.
Sen. Clinton's record on civil rights isn't just about what she's done
throughout her 35 years of advocacy, it's about what she'll do as
president. During this campaign, Hillary has advanced specific plans for
increasing opportunities and empowering communities. From cracking down
on predatory lending to creating opportunities for young people to
protecting the vote to restoring the Gulf Coast, Hillary is laying out a
clear blueprint for how she'll empower African-Americans as President.
As we go forward into this political season we must all be careful to
heed the lessons of Dr. King and focus on the things that unite us.
"Always" -- A New Fred Thompson Ad Airing Today In South Carolina
January 14, 2008
Clinton's Let's All Come Together Statement
Just e-mailed by her campaign:
“Over this past week, there has been a lot of discussion and back and forth - much of which I know does not reflect what is in our hearts.
“And at this moment, I believe we must seek common ground.
“Our party and our nation is bigger than this. Our party has been on the front line of every civil rights movement, women's rights movement, workers' rights movement, and other movements for justice in America.
“We differ on a lot of things. And it is critical to have the right kind of discussion on where we stand. But when it comes to civil rights and our commitment to diversity, when it comes to our heroes - President John F. Kennedy and Dr. King – Senator Obama and I are on the same side.
“And in that spirit, let's come together, because I want more than anything else to ensure that our family stays together on the front lines of the struggle to expand rights for all Americans.”
Whomsoever is the nominee will have to unify the party, and the more festering these wounds are, the harder it will be.
Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton have historically been on the right side of civil rights issues. They care about the African American community.… That is something I am convinced of. I want Americans to know that is my assessment.
Snow In Michigan Tomorrow
Helps or hurts who?
It's supposed to snow all over Michigan tomorrow. Not a major storm—just accumulations of a couple of inches. But it may be good for Romney: He's doing better among people who already have sent in absentee ballots than among late deciders, who may be breaking for McCain. Also, his stronghold is the metro Detroit area; in Grand Rapids and other outstate areas, where the weather often is more severe and the areas more rural, McCain and Huckabee do well. Finally, Michigan has an open primary, meaning that McCain could benefit from Democrats who cross over—but in crummy weather, only the most motivated Democrats will turn out.
In 1990, bad weather helped elect John Engler as governor—he was an upset winner, and almost certainly benefited from a low turnout.
At Large Precincts In Nevada
I've been following Jon Ralston's subscription-only coverage of the last-minute lawsuit against the concept of at-large precincts in the Nevada caucuses and I don't know how it will end.
When all the candidates (and their supporters in Nevada) weren't sure who'd get the endorsement of the Culinary Workers' union, no one objected to the creation of special at-large worksite precincts for them. Remember: MLK weekend is one of the busiest for Las Vegas and a lot of caucusing Culinary workers will be at their jobs on the strip.
But as soon as the Culinary Workers endorsed Barack Obama, opponents seem to have suddenly recognized that creating special precincts for a small group of Nevadans is undemocratic.
Further, the lawsuit seems to have brought real fissures between the Culinary Workers and other liberal interest groups in Nevada to the fore. The chairman of the Clark County Democratic Party called the head of the CW a "bully." Other unions are complaining about special treatment. Other Democrats are going to out of their way to claim that the Culinary Workers are less powerful than they claim.
CNN/OPC California Poll: Tied GOP Race, Clinton Leads
Still, Gallup has been studying and investigating the implications of cell phone only households for well over a year now. And, as of Jan. 1, 2008, Gallup has made the decision to include cell phone interviewing as part of the sample used for its general population studies.
This is a significant development, an acknowledgement of sorts that the growing proportion of the population is wireless only, and that telephone samples might not be able to be reweighted sufficiently to account for the skew.
Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal wrote in 2004:
Still, if not exclusively college age, wireless only adults are predominantly under age 45 (81%). They also tend to live in large metropolitan areas (82%), earn less than $40,000 annually (66%) and rent rather than own a home (62%; the comparable percentages for adults with a landline are 51% age 18-44, 73% metro area, 39% <$40K and 24% renter).
This profile, Blumenthal suggests, skews Democratic.
There is some evidence that the proportion of wireless-only users jumped dramatically in the past four years, and that might well account for Gallup's decision.
Anti-Thompson Oppo .... In South Carolina
Read the e-mail by the folks at "Columbia Christians For Life" after the jump.
Mr. Clinton then lit into the Obama campaign for its "overtly racist" opposition research piece labeling Mrs. Clinton as a senator from India "(D-Punjab)." Pressed further on Mr. Johnson's comments, Mr. Clinton retreated a bit, disclaiming any advance knowledge of his remarks on the part of the campaign. "Bob Johnson said what he said yesterday. Nobody knew what he was going to say. It wasn't part of any planned strategy." Mr. Clinton also said campaign officials did not plan for the Attorney General of New York, Andrew Cuomo, to use the term "shuck and jive" in what appeared to some to be a reference to Mr. Obama's campaign, but which Mr. Cuomo said was a general comment about campaigning techniques in New Hampshire and Iowa. "Certainly, nobody had any advance notice of anything Attorney General Cuomo said," Mr. Clinton said.
And agrees that caucuses aren't really Democratic (true, but don't admit it before the freakin' caucuses!!!)
Asked about the New York senator’s chances in Saturday’s upcoming caucus, [Bill] Clinton eluded to the recent criticism he and his wife have been voicing of the caucus process. “A caucus is different. It’s not like an election,” he said. “So we’re doing the best we can.”
Clinton Campaign's Citations For Critique Of Obama's Withdrawal Claims
The Clinton campaign calls Barack Obama's assertions that he was pushed for a withdrawal of US forces every year since 2002 "false."
Here's THE back-up:
In 2004, Sen. Obama said he was willing to support more troops in Iraq, said withdrawal from Iraq would be 'a slap in the face' to the troops fighting there." Democratic Senate candidate Barack Obama said Saturday he would be willing to send more soldiers to Iraq if it is part of a strategy that the president and military leaders believe will stabilize the country …'A quick withdrawal would add to the chaos there and make it 'an extraordinary hotbed of terrorist activity,' [Obama] said. It would also damage America's international prestige and amount to 'a slap in the face' to the troops fighting there, he said." [Christopher Wills, "Obama Willing To Support More Troops In Iraq," The Associated Press, 9/19/04]
In 2005, Sen. Obama said that 'U.S. forces are still a part of the solution.' "I believe that U.S. forces are still a part of the solution in Iraq….First and foremost, after the December 15 elections and during the course of next year, we need to focus our attention on how reduce the U.S. military footprint in Iraq. Notice that I say "reduce," and not "fully withdraw." [Obama speech to the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, 11/22/05]
In 2006, Sen. Obama opposed Sen. Kerry's amendment to withdraw troops, saying he opposed 'a precipitous withdrawal of troops.' Sen. Obama voted against an amendment by Senator Kerry requiring the president to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq in 2006 and have complete withdrawal by July 1, 2007. "But having visited Iraq, I am also acutely aware that a precipitous withdrawal of our troops, driven by congressional edict rather than the realities on the ground, will not undo the mistakes made by this administration. It could compound them… A hard and fast, arbitrary deadline for withdrawal offers our commanders in the field, and our diplomats in the region, insufficient flexibility" [2006 Vote # 181, S2766, 6/22/06; Obama Remarks, Congressional Record, 06/21/06]
Update: The Obama campaign says that the assertion in question came from an interview with an Obama foreign policy adviser who incorrectly said that Obama had always pushed for a withdrawal. There were no American ground troops in Iraq in 2002, so Obama could not have pushed for their exit.
Ugly Betty Endorses HRC
From a release:
Young actors America Ferrera and Amber Tamblyn, today announced their endorsement of Hillary Clinton. They will serve as national co-chairs of "HillBlazers," the campaign's youth outreach program and will campaign on behalf of Hillary in key states, including Nevada. Both Amber and America are expected to campaign in Las Vegas this week.
Is This Economic Conservativsm?
WMRomney:
"First, we have to tackle the problems head on. If I am your President, in my first 100 days, I will roll up my sleeves, and I will personally bring together industry, labor, Congressional and state leaders to develop a plan to rebuild America's automotive leadership. It will be one that works for Michigan and that works for the American taxpayers."
Is activist government compatible with economic conservatism?
Opponents of Romney seem to be salivating at his call for an "engaged Washington," reading into that phrase a clarion call for "big government." Clearly, Romney does not believe that the best way to solve Michigan's one-state recession is to cut taxes and get out of the way, as professional conservative thinkers seem to prefer.
Jennifer Rubin accuses Romney of "mimicking Soviet industrial policy" in attempting to prop up in industry that failed entirely on its own.
Here is the dilemma for free marketeers: none of the leading presidential candidates, save Fred Thompson, seems to be a leave-us-alone-consevrative in the model of Grover Norquist. All of them seem to be interventionist conservatives in the model of George W. Bush, and the sudden discovery of the GOP of widespread economic anxiety seems to have triggered the can-do executive in all of them.
Annotating An Edwards Memo: I'm Staying In, Damnit
TO: Interested Parties
FR: John Edwards for President Campaign
DT: 1-14-08
RE: Still not a two-person race
Depends on how you define "race."
THE NEW DYNAMIC IN THE RACE
The lesson out of New Hampshire is that while the media have anointed two celebrity candidates, both are deeply flawed. Senator Clinton, we’ve known for a long time, is plagued with questions over electablility and continues to defend the status quo in Washington. Senator Obama's weakness was revealed Tuesday night: voters want a fighter. If Obama was thrown-off by Clinton’s attacks last week, that's nothing compared to what Republicans will throw at the nominee this fall. If Obama is too weak to stand up to Republicans, and Clinton is too corporate to offer voters real change, Democrats will seek a nominee who not only stands for change but who actually shows some fight.
Obama's not a fighter? How was this revealed?
The media says voters have these two flawed choices – but there is another candidate, and this choice will decide whether or not we can actually bring about the change the middle class so desperately needs. In Iowa we saw that America is ready for change and prepared to reject the status quo that Senator Clinton defends. In New Hampshire we saw the fatal flaw in Senator Obama's approach - if you don't fight for change, you can't win.
Edwards is like democracy -- the best candidate of a flawed field?
Actually, Obama may have lost New Hampshire because he didn't fight for it; he crested.
NEVADA, SOUTH CAROLINA, FEB 5th, AND BEYOND
The Edwards campaign in Nevada recently added two dozen field organizers and now have 75 field staffers organizing support throughout the state. We already have strong labor support in the state including over 28,000 members (Carpenters, Steelworkers, Transport workers, Communication workers) and more than 1,000 precinct captain caucus trainings. Edwards has logged 17 visits to Nevada – roughly as much as Obama and Clinton combined.
Edwards's union endorsements will probably help him more than Obama's (SEIU, Culinary Workers) will help him, in part because Edwards's union support is distributed where Obama's is concentrated.
John Edwards is the only candidate who can run a spot in South Carolina named “Native Son.”
I like Richard Wright, too.
Edwards has logged more trips to the Palmetto state than any other candidate and was the first to go on the air with ads. The campaign recently deployed 60 experienced field staffers to organize throughout the state. In 2004, South Carolina voters showed their independence and commitment to choose a candidate who best represents them. John Edwards remains that candidate. His commitment to South Carolina did not start on January 9th and voters here will remember that he is the candidate who is from South Carolina and has always fought for them.
Voters in South Carolina are frustratingly resistant to the idea that this isn't a two-person race. And the fact is that Edwards's core demographic -- white, working class men -- don't tend to be Democrats in South Carolina.
We have advisors and organizers working in each of the Feb 5th states. On the heels of our Iowa victory over Senator Clinton, the coalition of 12 SEIU state councils that endorsed Edwards announced they would be pouring an additional $1.5 million into February 5 states on communication and voter turnout among the more than 750,000 SEIU members in those states. On January 17-18th, Edwards himself will bring the fight for middle class families to several key February 5th states.
His campaign plans a fly-around to the Feb 5 states.
THE PATH TO VICTORY
The Democratic nomination is determined by delegates, not the win-loss record in the first few states. Early wins and losses did not prove sufficient to drive others from the race, as they did in 2004. And in 2000, of course, there were only two serious candidates. But when there are more than two serious candidates who can go the distance, win-loss doesn't tell the tale - because to get the nomination, a candidate needs fifty percent of the delegates plus one. Winning with 35 or 40 percent will never get anyone to 50.
True, but this applies to every candidate.
Instead, this race will go to the candidate that can compete widely and over the long haul. We will be broadly competitive, accumulating groups of delegates across the February 5th states. Ultimately, we expect the race to narrow to one of the two celebrity candidates and us - and when that happens, we are confident that the remaining contests will break in our direction as voters are finally offered the choice the national media has ignored all year - the most progressive, most electable candidate in the race, John Edwards.
Where's the beef? And by beef, I mean "money."
This is not a new scenario - to the contrary it is the usual scenario. Until the non-race of 1996 and the pseudo-race of 2000 obliterated history from recent memory, reporters and campaign workers alike understood that nomination fights were fights for delegates. Bill Clinton didn't win a primary or caucus until Georgia. He didn't clinch the nomination until he defeated Jerry Brown in New York in April.
Stupid F@#*() reporters. They've forgotten about delegates.
Because this fight to the nomination is boiling down to the earning of delegates, the campaign has assembled a team of staff and advisors to manage delegate tracking through the convention.
Despite facing two $100 million candidates, we are only seven delegates behind. Even after February 5th, 45% of delegates will have not been selected. Contests in Louisiana, Maryland, Virginia will all be held the very next week. This race has just begun.
So the race will come down to the black guy, the woman, and the white guy? Does Edwards really want to be the "white guy" in this contest? But then again, states likes Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas are held after Feb. 5, and because the Democrats allocate delegates proportionally, there's a numerical imperative for Edwards to stay in this race.
And in Florida, the big lede is that Rudy Giuliani's campaign is, indeed, sensitive to momentum, per a Quinnipiac poll.
Giuliani: 22
McCain: 20
Huckabee: 19
Romney: 19
What this also means: if Mitt Romney somehow wins Michigan, he can skip South Carolina and put all his chips down in Florida, and probably come away with a strong showing.
If McCain wins Michigan... he has a better chance to win South Carolina (off the Huckabee / Thompson convergence) and swing into Florida in a good position to dethrone Rudy Giuliani.
If Mike Bloomberg Is Nominated As Vice President, Can He Fund The Ticket?
I asked a veteran campaign finance lawyer for his thoughts:
A presidential candidate (who doesn't take public funds) can spend as much of his own money on his own candidacy, but given that the Presidential and VP candidates run as a ticket, the legal question would be whether the FEC (if we ever have an FEC again) would attribute Bloomberg's spending as as VP candidate as going towards electing his Presidential running-mate (and therefore would be subject to the contribution limits). It's a totally open and novel question.
Who Is Larry Hinton, And Why Is He Calling Romney Supporters in Michigan?
Supporters of Mitt Romney in Michigan report receiving negative messaging calls this weekend.
After a 45-second "survey," the calls turn into an advertisement for Mike Huckabee's campaign.
The telephone number recorded by the calls' recipients is registered to one Larry Hinton of Leafcrest Lane in Fairfax, Virginia.
At least one caller reports that the caller ID said "G.W. Bush" and a few came from "Virginia."
I tried the number tonight; it seems to be disconnected, which suggests that the caller was spoofing (masking) his source.
Pro-Lifers To Disrupt Every Giuliani Event In Florida?
This e-mail is making the rounds:
- Rudy Giuliani was rattled by pro-life advocates and canceled his speech at his first bus-tour event Sunday in Miami. Activists have planned confrontations with Rudy for every stop of his Florida bus tour. Photos available online.
On Sunday, Jan. 13, at approximately 12:15 PM, pro-life activists were in the crowd at The Green Street Cafe (located at 3110 Commodor Plaza, Coconut Grove Florida, just outside Miami) waiting for Giuliani to begin his Florida Bus Tour.
When Rudy Giuliani arrived, Joseph Landry (age 26) was within 5 feet of the candidate, and began yelling: You are a baby killer! You are a baby killer! Florida is pro-life! Rudy wants public funding for abortion!" See news report.
Law enforcement officials immediately escorted Mr. Landry from the area, while Mr. Landry continued his monologue.
Within Minutes, Steven Pokorny, age 28, stood to his feet and cried out, "A third of my generation is dead because of politicians like Giuliani! Giuliani wants to kill children and have you pay for it!" Law enforcement did not stop Mr. Pokorny.
At that point, Giuliani left the building, without addressing the crowd.
Mr. Pokorny was able to follow Mr. Giuliani for more than a minute, yelling out about Rudy's pro-choice, pro-homosexual agenda. Again, Mr. Pokorny was not interrupted by police
Giuliani officials had no idea how many pro-lifers were in the crowd, and how many more times Giuliani would be confronted. This might explain why Mr. Giuliani did not make any remarks - and left the meeting without addressing supporters.
Pro-lifers have scheduled confrontations with Rudy on every stop of his Florida Bus tour.
January 13, 2008
McCain Leads Nationally
John McCain hasn't so far been able to translate his New Hampshire victory into momentum in Michigan, but Republicans watching the race from afar have snapped to attention.
A new CBS News / New York Times poll suggests he's the choice for 33% of likely Republican primary voters, followed by Mike Huckabee at 17% and Rudy Giuliani barely cracking double digits.
More good news for McCain: he leads among conservatives and moderates and is seen as the most electable. Only 12% of those surveyed think that Rudy Giuliani is the most electable, down from 43% in October.
Thank you, John Weaver: Six in 10 Republican primary voters think McCain shares their values.
And yes -- the economy is the top issue among Republican voters.
Still, 72% of Republicans say they might change their minds.
What Was Bob Johnson Thinking?
In South Carolina today, BET founder Bob Johnson had this to say about Barack Obama:
"I am frankly insulted that the Obama campaign would imply that we are so stupid that we would think Hillary and Bill Clinton who have been deeply and emotionally involved in black issues when Barack Obama was doing something in the neighborhood that I won't say what he was doing but he said it in his book."
Did your mind go there? Because mine did.
Later, Johnson issued a statement through the Clinton campaign:
“My comments today were referring to Barack Obama's time spent as a community organizer, and nothing else. Any other suggestion is simply irresponsible and incorrect. When Hillary Clinton was in her twenties she worked to provide protections for abused and battered children and helped ensure that children with disabilities could attend public school. That results oriented leadership -- even as a young person -- is the reason I am supporting Hillary Clinton.”
Jake Tapper titles his post on this: "Guess who's coming to dinner?"
Anti-Huckabee E-mails Spread "Anti-Catholic" Bias
This e-mail is circulating among Michigan Republicans:
Michigan Catholic Voter Alert:
What Michigan Catholics MUST Know About Mike Huckabee
FACT: Mike Huckabee has exhibited a willful blindness in associating with anti-Catholicism when it has benefited him politically.
FACT: Instead of supporting a healthy expression of religion in the public square, Mike Huckabee has used his evangelical protestant faith as a wedge to divide the Republican Party and gain support from fellow evangelicals.
FACT: While claiming to believe Catholics are fellow Christians, Mike Huckabee has kept close acquitance with evangelical leaders who have:
o Compared Catholicism to a disease requiring 'recovery' and rehabilitation;
o Said the Catholic Church collaborated with the Nazis to exterminate Jews;
o Accused the Catholic Church of pulling mankind into the 'dark ages'.
FACT: Mike Huckabee has been endorsed by anti-Catholic author Tim Lahaye , who called Catholicism a "false religion" Lahaye's Church also funded "Mission to Catholics", a virulently anti-Catholic ministry.
Read More: Catholic.org: False Profit: Money, Prejudice, and Bad Theology in Tim LaHaye's Left Behind Series and at The Catholic League: The Best-Selling Bigotry of Left Behind
FACT: Mike Huckabee has also played up anti-Mormon sentiment against Governor Mitt Romney by asking a reporter if it was the Mormon Church that taught that Jesus and the devil were half-brothers. For more information, click here .
FACT: Mike Huckabee turned a blind eye to an anti-Catholic whisper campaign waged against Catholic Senator Sam Brownback in the run up to the Iowa Straw Poll in July 2007. For more information, click here .
FACT: While Mike Huckabee has declared himself to be the authentic pro-life candidate in the 2008 Republican primary, in 2006 alone he accepted $35,000 in cash from Novo Nordisk, a company dedicated to promoting research on human life through destructive embryonic stem cell research.
Case in Point: Mike Huckabee was the guest speaker at the notoriously anti-Catholic Cornerstone Church in San Antonio, TX on December 23, 2007.
Huckabee was hosted by the Rev. John Hagee, who has written that the Catholic Church collaborated with Hitler in staying completely silent during the Holocaust. This would be a surprise to millions of Catholics who struggled against Nazism, most especially St. Maximillan Kolbe.
Here is a sampling of Pastor Hagee's writings:
John Hagee: "Most readers will be shocked by the clear record of history linking Adolf Hitler and the Roman Catholic Church in a conspiracy to exterminate the Jews."
John Hagee: "The Catholic Church plunged the world into the dark ages."
John Hagee: " When Hitler became a global demonic monster, the Catholic Church and Pope Pius XII never, ever slightly criticized him."
What does Mike Huckabee think about John Hagee?
Huckabee said John Hagee is, "one of the greatest Christian leaders of our nation."
But the Catholic League for Religious and Civil Rights has a different opinion of John Hagee:
READ MORE: "John Hagee: Veteran Bigot."
What did Mike Huckabee do when presented with these vicious statements made by John Hagee about Catholics and the Catholic Church?
Nothing, but Huckabee did make this very equivocal statement: "I can't speak for (Hagee) anymore than he could speak for me. I'm sure that there're things I'll say that he disagrees with… I would certainly never characterize the Catholic Church as being pro-Nazi, never."
Just imagine if a politician:
Spoke at a church/organization which denied the Holocaust ever existed;
Said he did not agree with this statement of the church/organization;
But then went on to call the leader of this church/organization (who made the statement denying the Holocaust) one of the finest leaders in our nation.
Imagine this scenario no longer: Mike Huckabee has put forward this ridiculous line of reasoning.
And to top it off, Huckabee accepted $10,000 from Hagee for speaking at the church!
Why did the self-anointed authentic pro-life candidate in this election—Mike Huckabee—accept $35,000 in 2006 from Novo Nordisk, a company that conducts life-destructive embryonic stem cell research?
While this story line sounds too salacious to be true, Mike Huckabee did in fact accept $35,000 from Novo Nordisk in 2006, a company that is one of the largest embryonic stem cell research firms in the world.
What was the reason for these payments? Huckabee accepted the money for 'consulting services/speaking fees'. Huckabee accepted this money nonetheless while he was the sitting Governor of Arkansas.
How can pro-lifers trust this man when he has taken so much money—for so little actual work-- from a company that profits from the destruction of human life? Simply, put, they can't. At minimum, why won't Mike Huckabee return this money?
Conclusion
Sadly, Mike Huckabee would seek to divide conservatives and Republicans along religious lines for political gain. While America needs a more robust expression of faith in the public square, it does not need a preacher politician who has shown a repeated pattern of dividing people along religious lines. The shared values of Protestants and Catholics are too important to risk endangering this important coalition by nominating Mike Huckabee, a candidate who has demonstrated a blind eye to anti-Catholicism.
Michigan Catholic Voters:
Do you want a president who rubs shoulders with Anti-Catholic Bigots?
On Tuesday, January 15th , you have a chance to be heard.
Vote Against Anti-Catholic Bigotry.
Vote Against Mike Huckabee .
Dare We Say: Romney Is Leading In Michigan?
New Hampshire proved once and for all the folly of prognosticating from polls, but something is happening in Michigan that's worth paying attention to:
McClatchy/MSNBC has:
Romney: 30
McCain: 22
Huckabee: 17
And this could be happening. Voters process information so quickly these days that Mitt Romney's liberated stump speech and "Real Mitt persona" could be working in his favor. The press has said it's too little, too late, but maybe not: maybe you can, in this environment, pivot your message and change a lot of minds in the space of only a few days.
Early 2007 All Over Again
After two uncomfortable days on race, the leading Democratic presidential candidates turned the set of issues that initially kicked of the cycle: judgment and Iraq.
On Meet the Press this morning, Clinton, for the first time, opened the lid:
What he was talking about was very directly about the story of Sen. Obama's campaign, being premised on a speech he gave in 2002 and that was to his credit. He gave a speech opposing the war in Iraq. He gave a very impassioned speech against it and consistently said that he was against the war, he would vote against the funding for the war. By 2003, that speech was off his website. By 2004, he was saying that he didn't really disagree with the way George Bush was conducting the war. And by 2005, 6, and 7, he was voting for $300 billion in funding for the war. The story of his campaign is really the story of that speech and his opposition to Iraq. I think it is fair to ask questions about, what did you do after the speech was over? And when he became a senator, he didn't go to the floor of the Senate to condemn the war in Iraq for 18 months. He didn't introduce legislation against the war in Iraq. He voted against timelines and deadlines initially. So I think it's important that we get the contrast and the comparisons out. I think that's fair game.
Clinton has no intention of persuading voters that Obama initially favored the war; the inconsistency itself isn't even the issue. What she's trying to do, as plain as day, is to puncture the defensive balloon that surrounds Obama's change message. Obama, she is really saying, isn't special: he's just like one of us. He tailors his rhetoric to match the political imperatives. The less special Obama becomes, the more vulnerable he comes to scrutiny by voters themselves.
I can't tell you how many voters in New Hampshire and Iowa would acknowledge that they might not know too much about Obama but were compelled to attend his events and support his candidacy because of the emotion he inspired in him.
The Clinton campaign directly criticizes Obama's movement at a huge risk: even Democrats who oppose his candidacy recognize that he's building something transcendent. (In this way, Bill Clinton's description of Obama's candidacy as a "fairy tale" sounded offensive even though Clinton was referring only to Obama's Iraq record. In the days ahead, Clinton will say nothing about Obama's inspirational story or about the movement that's sustaining his candidacy.
Obama, for his part, on a conference call with reporters later today, tried to stuff Clinton into the bottle he managed to create for Iowa:
...I have to say that she started this campaign saying that she wanted to make history and lately she has been spending a lot of time rewriting it. I know that in Washington it is acceptable to say or do anything it takes to get elected but I really don’t think that is the kind of politics that is good for our party and I don’t think it is good for our country and I think that the American people will reject it in this election. What I want to do is spend talking about how we are going to make sure that people who are losing their jobs get work. How are we going to make sure that our young people are going to afford college? How are we going to make sure that the sub-prime lending crisis does not lead to an all out recession? How are we going to create the kind of foreign policy that allows us to bring our troops home and makes us safer and goes after a genuine terrorist threat? Those are the issues that we are going to spend time talking about in this campaign and if Senator Clinton wants to be distracted by the sorts of political point scoring that was evident today then that is going to be her prerogative.
Both campaigns were ready for combat. Obama's press team sent out three rebuttal e-mails this morning and scheduled a conference call with key foreign policy hands. (The Clinton campaign responded with an afternoon conference call of its own.)
So Clinton and Obama are debating policy, rather than governing styles. Who do you suppose that benefits? (I don't really know...)
Local 226'S Power In Nevada
Barack Obama's confidence-inducing endorsement by the Culinary Workers Local 226 in Las Vegas is a major boost to his chances in Nevada. 226's endorsement was ferociously courted by all the leading candidates, all of whom are well aware of its value.
But there are reasons to believe that the endorsement won't matter as much to the outcome of the caucuses themselves.
Consider: while the union claims 60,000 active members, many are not registered voters because many are not citizens.
Most 266 members live in four, compact Assembly districts in Clark County, but on the day of the caucuses, at least a third of them will be working. (It's MLK weekend -- one of the busiest weekends of the year in Las Vegas.)
The caucus rules helpfully carved out at-large caucus precincts -- this is now the subject of a last-minute lawsuit, possibly initiated by Clinton supporters -- on the sites of major employers, but the delegate haul from them will be small: less than 5% of the total. And remember: delegates in Nevada, as in Iowa, are allocated proportionally.
Local 226 has greater sway in state elections, where the popular vote matters, and in Assembly districts. But its power in caucuses is unproven, and there are reasons to believe that it will not make too much of a difference for Barack Obama.
There are reasons to believe that members of the Culinary Workers, like the SEIU, which just endorsed Obama in the state, are not solidly behind Obama, although a majority, or a plurality probably support him.
Now -- the union has put its reputation on the line here, and when the Culinary Workers "go all out, they go all out," one Nevada political analyst told me.
Make no mistake: Obama's campaign is glad to have the 226 in their corner. But some journalists -- myself included -- have portrayed the endorsement as dispositive. On second look, it just isn't.
January 12, 2008
Updates
The latest high-profile politician from the post-Clinton era to endorse Barack Obama: Sen. Claire McCaskill, widely considered to be Chuck Schumer's triumphant recruit for 2006.
Is uncommitted gaining among Michigan Democrats? Remember, only Hillary Clinton (and Chris Dodd) are on the Michigan ballot, and no delegates are awarded, so everyone is ignoring the state. A coalition of Edwards and Obama supporters are trying to deal a symbolic blow to Clinton by coalescing support in favor of "Uncommitted."
A Detroit Free Press poll and a Detroit News poll show that Mitt Romney is gaining on John McCain. The News poll has McCain tied with Romney, 27 to 26, and the Freep poll has Romney with a five point lead over McCain.
Hillary’s record on civil rights isn’t just about what she’s done throughout her 35 years of advocacy, it’s about what she’ll do as President. Throughout her life, she has worked to protect civil rights and expand opportunities for African-Americans.
During this campaign, Hillary has advanced specific plans for increasing opportunities and empowering communities. From cracking down on predatory lending to creating opportunities for young people to protecting the vote to restoring the Gulf Coast, Hillary is laying out a clear blueprint for how she’ll empower African-Americans as President.
Growing Up and As a Student
* As a teenager, Sen. Clinton was inspired by seeing Dr. King speak in Chicago. [Living History, pg. 23]
* In the wake of Dr. King's assassination, Hillary organized a strike at Wellesley aimed at increasing diversity in the staff and student body. [New York Times, 9/5/07]
* As a law student she volunteered at the New Haven Legal Services offices, providing free legal aid to low income people, in need of assistance. Hillary said, "I realized that what I wanted to do with the law was to give voice to children who were not being heard." [Living History, pg. 49-50]
* Hillary took a job with Marian Wright Edelman's Washington Research Project in Washington, DC (later the Children’s Defense Fund). WRP couldn't pay her; she was awarded a grant by the Law Student Civil Rights Research Council. Later when she back to work for the Children's Defense Fund after law school, she worked on juvenile justice issues in South Carolina. [Living History, pg. 47-49; pg. 64]
* In the summer of 1972, Hillary challenged discrimination practices. (She gathered information about "Nixon Administration's failure to enforce the legal ban on granting tax-exempt status to the private segregated academies that had sprung up in the South to avoid integrated public schools.") [Living History, pg. 57]
* Hillary headed the voter registration drive in Austin, Texas for McGovern campaign, focusing on registering black, Hispanic, and young, newly-enfranchised voters. [Living History, pg. 58-59]
In Arkansas
* Upon moving to Arkansas, Hillary taught law and ran the University of Arkansas's legal aid clinic and prison projects providing legal assistance to the poor and incarcerated. [Living History, pg. 70]
* Hillary chaired the Educational Standards Commission to reform Arkansas’ education system to better prepare young people, particularly those living in low income areas, to thrive. [Associated Press, 1/27/93]
* She served as Chair of the Legal Services Corporation Board of Directors from 1978-80, a time of expansion for LSC. [Living History, pg.83]
As First Lady
* As First Lady, Hillary championed SCHIP which today provides health care to 6 million kids. [New York Times, 3/14/07]
* Hillary led new investments in child care, including Head Start. [PL 103-252, signed 5/18/94; The Washington Post, 10/7/98; USA Today, 10/27/98]
* Hillary fought to increase access to after school opportunities. [Chicago Sun-Times, 4/28/98]
* She worked on the Family and Medical Leave Act and later fought to expand it. [Christian Science Monitor, 6/24/99; The Post-Standard, 10/23/00]
* Hillary also worked on new initiatives to help families with long-term care needs. [Talking it Over, 1/6/99]
In the Senate
* As a Senator, Hillary co-sponsored the Count Every Vote Act with Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones, a comprehensive reform bill that demands an electoral system that ensures that every voter is given the opportunity to vote and makes sure those votes are counted. [Clinton Senate Office press release, 3/7/07; S. 804]
* She's co-sponsored a number of measures to help the people of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, working to ensure that Katrina survivors get access to affordable health care, to protect the wages of workers in New Orleans, and to fill hundreds of teaching vacancies in New Orleans schools. [S. 2164, 12/21/05; S.1749, 9/21/05; S.808, 3/8/07]
As President
* Save the Civil Rights Division from eight years of the Bush Administration. Hillary will: Direct the Attorney General to submit – within 90 days of taking office – a report that recommends how to rebuild DOJ’s traditional role in defending civil rights and the rule of law, and that reviews charges of improper, politically motivated hiring to determine whether laws were broken. Restore professionalism and remove politics from hiring, case deliberations, and policy decisions across the Department of Justice. Increase funding for the Civil Rights Division by $30 million.
* Help local school districts pursue voluntary integration and reduce racial inequality, in the face of a reactionary Supreme Court. Hillary will: Direct the Attorney General to appoint teams of EOE (Equal Opportunity in Education) consultants and deploy them to advise local school districts who want to design the most effective and proactive voluntary integration programs permitted under the Supreme Court’s recent ruling. Provide $10 million to help school districts implement these plans.
* Strengthen our voting laws so that every citizen can fully exercise his or her constitutional right to vote. Hillary will: Sign the Count Every Vote Act into law. Combat voter ID laws that have a disproportionate negative impact on minorities. Extend voting rights to citizens of D.C.
* Combat ongoing racial and sex discrimination in the labor market by improving laws and expanding enforcement. Hillary will: Fully fund and reverse the staffing cuts to the EEOC and strengthen the employment section of the Civil Rights Division. Sign into law the Paycheck Fairness Act to end gender discrimination in pay.
* Modernize and strengthen the federal hate crimes law. Hillary will: Sign into law the Local Law Enforcement Hate Crimes Prevention Act.
* Rebuild New Orleans in the wake of Katrina, Hillary has ten concrete ideas for ensuring that the federal government doesn’t repeat the mistakes it made while redoubling rebuilding efforts including elevating the Gulf Coast Federal Rebuilding Director, expanding housing, building 21st Century school and revitalizing a lagging health care system. [Gulf Coast Recovery Agenda]
January 11, 2008
The Crucible Of Racial Politics
Race and gender have always been subtexts of the Democratic presidential race, and for the first time, really, since this whole thing began, they've become fully fledged texts. One reporter even claims that racial politics is "roiling" the Democratic race.
Today, former President Clinton appeared on prominent black radio talk show programs to tamp down a wave of concerns that his calling Barack Obama's candidacy a "fairy tale" was racially insensitive. One by one, to hosts Steve Harvey, Michael Basin and Al Sharpton, Clinton professed his admiration for Obama and insisted that he was only referring to Obama's lack of executive experience.
In turn, the Clinton campaign has accused the Obama campaign of artificially ginning up the controversy. Clinton aides seized on reports that an Obama press aide, in response to a research query from a prominent activist, included remarks by the Clintons in a compilation of racially insensitive remarks. Hillary Clinton said the accusations about her comments were "baseless and divisive," ABC News reported tonight.
The compilation produced by the press aide starts with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo's linking Obama's style at press conferences to "Shuck and Jive." The next heading in capital letters reads: "MARTIN LUTHER KING / LYNDON JOHNSON COMPARISON." The story excerpt includes Hillary Clinton's remark that Pres. Lyndon Johnson was instrumental to the passage of civil rights laws. Then the document features Bill Clinton's assertion that Hillary Clinton is "stronger than Nelson Mandela," former Clinton adviser Billy Shaheen's plea to the press to focus on Obama's youthful drug use, Mark Penn's invocation of the word "cocaine" when trying to defend Shaheen.
There is no evidence that the campaign circulated the compilation to reporters, or to anyone aside from the activist who requested the information.
Obama has not accused the Clintons of racism and an Obama campaign aide said that campaign does not believe that the Clintons themselves were attempting to sow racial discord. Nonetheless, several powerful black politicians and political activists, including Donna Brazile and Rep. James Clyburn, say they detect, in a pattern of curious remarks, a string of questions designed to raise the issue of race. Brazile has not endorsed a presidential candidate.
"Somehow, this story is being used to create a wedge or divide," Brazile told me via e-mail. "What we have is two historic candidates battling to become the first. Meanwhile, old wounds have been reopened and now it's a mess."
Clyburn, for his part, seemed to back away from a decision to endorse.
In a statement released late today by his press office, he says he "told the DNC, the South Carolina Democratic Party and the South Carolina General Assembly that I would do everything I could to ensure this first in the South primary is a success. My position and my focus remain the same, and I have conveyed that to the campaigns of Senators Obama, Clinton and Edwards."
“I encourage the candidates to be sensitive about the words they use. This is an historic race for America to have such strong, diverse candidates vying for the Democratic nomination. I want what is best for South Carolina and the nation – a successful South Carolina primary and a strong Democratic nominee.”
CBS News's Fernando Suarez reports that Sen. Hillary Clinton will actually ride on the press plane (with real reporters!) from San Diego to Los Angeles.
Surprise Party
Two of the founding members of Unity ‘08 have quit to start a committee to draft New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg as an independent presidential candidate. Joshua Green profiled the would-be third-party in this piece from last year. READ MORE
Latest CNN/OPC National Numbers
The Daily Five: Giuliani Loses His National Finance Chair
1. It's not a good sign that Giuliani's senior staff have decided to work without paychecks, and there is no way to spin it otherwise. The amount of money that's involved is miniscule: about $50,000 per month.
So the campaign must really have a cash on hand problem. Breaking News: Giuliani's national finance chair, Roy Bailey, no longer has that position with the campaign. Bailey was not only Giuliani's finance chair, he was one of the founding partners of Giuliani's consulting firm.
2. Finally, for this supporters: Mike Huckabee adds Jim Pinkerton to his policy shop. But why the personal insult against Fred Thompson?
3. New York's Conservative Party will endorse Fred Thompson over Rudy Giuliani.
4. AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano endorses Sen. Barack Obama, saying on a conference call:
I thought deeply about this decision. In my view it wasn't about gender or race. It was between two eminently qualified individuals who bring a lot of talent, either one who would serve as a good president. This president fundamentally about choice, new vision to Washington, DC, bringing different parties, ages, etc. together. Sen. Obama is evidence of that change we need. It was a difficult decision but Sen. Obama is the right choice
5. Hillary Clinton has released a new ad in Nevada and South Carolina featuring her new catchphrase:
"Over the last week I listened to you and in the process I found my own voice. You helped remind everyone that politics isn’t a game. This campaign is about people. About making a difference in your lives. It’s time we had a president who stands up for all of you. “I’m Hillary Clinton and I approved this message.”
Glasnost In HillaryLand Update
1. What's former President Bill Clinton been doing since Sen. Hillary Clinton's surprise victory in New Hampshire? He's been camped out at the national campaign headquarters in Arlington, taking over an office, participating in senior staff meetings.
2. Press adviser Doug Hattaway, who earned Hillary Clinton's respect and confidence in New Hampshire, has been asked by the campaign to extend his service through Feb. 5. The former Gore aide will travel with Sen. Clinton.
Latest Michigan Poll: McCain + 7
Steve Mitchell, an unaffiliated pollster in Michigan, has finished a survey of likely Republican primary voters.
He finds that Sen. John McCain has 23%, a seven point advantage of Mitt Romney and a 12 point advantage of Mike Huckabee. Equally, 23% say they are undecided. The margin of error is about +/- 5.3%.
Clinton Stimulates.
In California today, Sen. Hillary Clinton unveils a smorgasboard of spending proposals to ward off a recession.
Clinton would rebate $40M to lower and middle class families, spend $10B to strengthen unemployment insurance, accellerate spending to "jumpstart green collar growth," spend $25B in home heating assistance grants (to shore up LiHEAP) and establish a $30B emergency housing crisis fund. Total cost: $70B. (Alex Conant at the RNC -- did you get that?)
If we accept HRC's prose/poetry dichotomy, where Obama is Byron and she is Hannah Arendt, then as the "prose" candidate, all of her numbers for her big spending proposals ought to add up. So where does the money come from? We'll see...
(Update: Neera Tanden calls to point out that stimulus packages aren't supposed to be revenue neutral and that this expenditure would be for one year only.)
(Update: Alex Conant of the RNC e-mails:
Senator Clinton cannot be trusted to be honest and upfront about her reckless fiscal proposals. Clinton says she wants to ‘put money in people’s hands,’ but her plans require massive tax increases on hardworking families. Clinton’s campaign says that every spending proposal ‘must be paid for,’ but she can’t tell the American people how she will finance nearly $800 billion in new government spending. Hillary Clinton’s misguided rhetoric concerning our economy is not believable or credible.”)
Last December, Edwards, too, would "accelerate" investment in clean energy, spend to ensure that unemployment insurance is available in the wake of massive job layoffs, increase the federal contribution to Medicaid, and create a "Home Rescue Fund."
Speaking of stimulus packages: John Edwards needs one for his campaign, and to that end, campaign manager David Bonior sent an e-mail to the campaign list today selling tee shirts and buttons, A twenty dollar tee shirt, he says, can bring in 40 dollars with of resources.
Clinton's Donors Fly To DC For Summit
Hillary Clinton's campaign is flying major donors to Washington, D.C. for two days of strategizing and face with time senior campaign officials.
The donors got the word last night.
Shenanigans In Michigan
Markos "Daily Kos" Moulitsas is urging Democrats to vote in the Republican primary for Mitt Romney in the hope of prolonging the Republican contest.
Remember: only HRC is on the ballot in Michigan, although there is a growing movement by supporters of John Edwards and Barack Obama to vote for "uncommitted" to try and deal Clinton a symbolic blow there. (What if she finishes second to uncommitted, like Jimmy Carter did in 1976 in Iowa?)
Already, the secretary of state reports that a large number of the 222,000 absentee ballots are crossovers -- most from Democrats to Republicans, but some, inexplicably, from Republicans to Democrats.
Say What?
Sen. John Kerry:
"The moment is now, and the candidate for this moment is Barack Obama. Like him, I also lived abroad as a young man, and I share with him a healthy respect for the advantage of knowing other cultures and countries, not from a book or a briefing, but by personal experience, by gut, by instinct.
Swiss boarding school is so much like Indonesia...
"New Hillary" To Meet The Press
Hillary Clinton will appear on NBC's Meet the Press this weekend, for a full hour, for the first time, ever.
We begin by recalling the profound words of Ronald Reagan at the Conservative Political Action Conference Feb. 15, 1975: “A political party cannot be all things to all people. It must represent certain fundamental beliefs which must not be compromised to political expediency or simply to swell its numbers.” We believed that then, and we believe it now. The issue for us -- and for the conservative community -- boils down to which of the candidates is most representative of the fundamental conservative principles we believe in. The answer is Fred Thompson.
McCain's South Carolina Pro-Life Mailer
In 2000, unknown opponents of John McCain tried to smear him by inciting racial hatred. McCain's adopted daughter from Bangladesh was presented in a mailing as his out-of-wedlock black baby.
In 2008, McCain's daughter, Bridgette, is prominently featured in another piece of mail. This time, its author is the McCain campaign, and it serves to highlight his pro-life credentials and his work on behalf of the cause of adoption.
January 10, 2008
Fox News Debate
This was Fred Thompson's second strong debate in a row; it's as if he realized there was a real campaign and that he had real talent to bring to bear in a way that makes him look good and his opponents look silly.
Generally: Mitt Romney was mezzo-tempo tonight; he avoided saying things like "net-net"; the moderators didn't gang on up him -- unusual for a Fox News debate. John McCain had the stature of a frontrunner; Mike Huckabee seemed less fluent with foreign policy issues but was strong, as always, when defending his record as governor. Rudy Giuliani seems content to stay in the background.
Fox News Debate Wire (4)
Romney on immigration: "The others who come here illegally should stand in line with everyone else who wants to come to this country and should not be given a special pathway a special privilege..."
Huckabee turns a question on religious doctrine into a strong statement of his faith and family...
McCain touts his change record...
Romney gets a nice minute to give his stump speech.
Was that the latest mention of illegal immigration in a debate?
Romney: Do voters want Washington experience more than they want change? "No." Cites his nearly two AMA (Ask Mitt Anythings).
Fox News Debate Wire (3)
** Maybe Mitt Romney did get the pro-life award...
** Huck makes a big pro-Israel statement....
** Huck worries about pushing Mush out because it'll create a vacuum
** On foreign policy, Thompson and Romney really know their stuff.... the comparison to Huckabee is pretty stark.
** Romney: foreign policy "is not longer like a game of checkers. It's like a game of three-dimensional chess."
** Thompson expresses conditional support for Musharrif; but "let's not ever kid ourselves; our national security interest requires that those nuclear weapons not fall into the hands of radicals..."
** Thompson: "You can tell the news is good coming out of Iraq because you read so little about it in the New York Times."
** McCain makes some awkward jokes about terrorists
** McCain riffs on the surge, points out the anniversary...
** Romney suggests Paul is reading Ahmadinejad's press releases. Does not believe action was taken by rogue elements...
** Paul compares this to the Gulf of Tonkin. "We have five more speed boats attacking a U.S. Navy destroyer and here we are ready to start World War III." The crowd is laughing...
** McCain: "I would have placed my confidence in the captain of the ship. For those of who are not in that information to second guess, it's a little presumptuous." Agrees with Rudy. Maybe the "Iranians think we're weaker because of the NIE."
** Rudy uses the incident to question the conclusions of the NIE.
** Thompson uses the word "frisky."
** Thompson: One more step "and they would have been introduced to those virgins they've been looking to see." Funny!
** Huckabee asked about Straight of Hormuz incident: answers that the President made the right decision. Huckabee says the words "gates of hell" and gets cheers. Pressed, said he supports the commanders. "That's what we train them for."
** If Reagan were alive, don't you think he'd amble up on stage, tilt his head, and say: "You're paying for this microphone, so why are you talking about me?"
Or This:
Fox News Debate Wire (2)
** During commercial break, Rudy's tax cut ad runs...
** Did Massachusetts Citizens for Life really give Mitt Romney a pro-life award?
** Rudy sounded a bit like Howard Dean there...who says that the Democrats ought to compete everywhere.
** "If we want to be a party than cut run and win in states that Ronald Reagan won...states in which we don't even campaign any longer...it was a broad outreach, an inclusive one..."
** Behind the scenes: in their staff hold, Fred Thompson's staff whooped and hollered as he gave his last response...
** Is Giuliani the complete conservative? "The reason why Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980 is that Ronald Reagan was seen as the strongest leader."
** Giuliani campaign sends out this picture.
** Huckabee: "If you're not getting flack, you're not over the target. Let me try to give you some of the facts of my record..."
** Thompson's offensive gets audience cheers. It's like he's figured out there's a race going on.
** Thompson Goes After Huck: "I think that Gov. Huckabee's campaign manager said it accurately in terms of what they believe...they believe that [the Reagan revolution] it is over... Huckabee would be a Christian leader but he would also bring about liberal economic policies and liberal foreign policies..." "That's not the model of the Reagan coalition."
** The debate so far: "I Reagan you Reagan Well Reagan tax Reagan tax Brit."
** Asks about coverage for abortion services in his Mass. health care plan. Romney: "The decision to include abortion services...was required by the court..." "My term as governor was decidedly pro-life." -- Returns to Reagan: ... three legged stool... "Washington has moved away from the Reagan coalition....Republican party has moved away from the Reagan principles."
Fox News Debate Wire, Part I
** McCain on the Reagan coalition: In some respects, the Reagan principles and philosophy and practices, we've gone away from.
** Cameron asks Huck what part of the Reagan coalition is gone. Huck says Reagan coalition hasn't seen middle class Republicans seeing themselves as part of the party as they should. Wants an economically broad coalition.
** And... his solution is...guess what? Cutting taxes on corporation and the wealthy... Ok, he also said a targeted stimulus package toward lower income people. He notes that many low income people don't pay income taxes. (But doesn't seem to make the connection that they also still feel economic anxiety. So maybe there's more to be done than cutting taxes?)
** Unlike the last debate in which he said the economy is just great, Thompson notes this time that the "money is getting tighter and tighter."
** Thompson notes that his tax cut plan may have been copied by Rudy...
** Paul talks about how artificially low interest rates has caused the bubble.
** McCain seems a little nervous when talking about the economy. He agrees that tax cuts stimulates the economy; wants to make the Bush tax cuts permanent (though he voted against them originally).
** Austerity: Giuliani would dramatically cut spending in a recession. Regulatory reform. Oversuing.
** Giuliani's ads: CBO says reducing taxes don't raise revenues. Defense? "It depends on the tax cutting." Cites Club for Growth's endorsement of the plan; "the biggest tax cut in our history." Wants to cut the corporate tax from 35 to 30%.
** Huckabee's short-term economic stimulus package? Fuel prices...subprime mortgages... health care costs...education costs..."a lot of people are working harder this year than they were a year ago." Cut marginal tax cut rates --> fair tax.
** McCain does not believe we're headed into a recession. McCain's prescription: cut spending, which is responsible for higher interest rates, stop outflow of energy money, educational retraining
** It would not be a Fox News debate without a tough question for Romney off-the-bat. (Chris Wallace noted that job growth in his Mass. was third-lowest in the nation.)
** Romney's prescription: solve the housing crisis, cut taxes for middle income Americans, lower gas prices, invest in R and D. He digs at McCain for saying that some jobs won't be coming back to Michigan and South Carolina. Uses the word "fight" a lot.
Barack's Got John Kerry; Hillary Gets Ann Rice
Barack Obama's New Ad For Nevada
Kerry's Email For Obama
Hi Friend,
Martin Luther King said, “The time is always right to do what is right.” So I'm choosing this time to share an important decision I've made, one I believe is right for this country.
The JohnKerry.com community has been very important to me and very important to the Democratic resurgence over the last couple of years, so I wanted to let all of you know my decision before I confirm it with anyone else. I want to share with you my conviction that in a field of fine Democratic candidates, the next President of the United States can be, should be, and will be Barack Obama. Each of our candidates would make a fine President, and we are blessed with a strong field. But for this moment, at this time in our nation's history, Barack Obama is the right choice.
Please join me in supporting Barack Obama’s candidacy.
I’m proud to have helped introduce Barack to our nation when I asked him to speak to our national convention, and there Barack's words and vision burst out. On that day he reminded Americans that our “true genius is faith in simple dreams, an insistence on small miracles.” And with his leadership we can build simple dreams, and we can turn millions of small miracles into real change for our country.
At this particular moment, with our country faced with great challenges in our economy, in our environment, and in our foreign policy, and with our politics torn by division, Barack Obama can bring transformation to our country. With Barack, we can build a new majority of Americans from all regions who can turn the page on the politics of Karl Rove and begin a new politics, one worthy of our nation's history and promise. We can bring millions of disaffected people – young and old – to the great task of governing and making a difference, child to child, community to community.
Please click here to give what you can to Barack Obama’s campaign for President and help build this future for our country.
The moment is now, and the candidate for this moment is Barack Obama. Like him, I also lived abroad as a young man, and I share with him a healthy respect for the advantage of knowing other cultures and countries, not from a book or a briefing, but by personal experience, by gut, by instinct. He knows the issues from the deep study of a legislator, and he knows them from a life lived outside of Washington. His is the wisdom of real-world experience combined with the intellect of a man who has thought deeply about the challenges we face.
History has given us this moment. But we need to decide what to do with it. I believe, with this moment, we should make Barack Obama President of the United States.
Please join me in supporting his campaign.
Thank you,
John Kerry
Anti-Huckabee Group To Air Ads In South Carolina Tonight
Victim's Voice, which describes itself as a group organized under section 527 of the tax code, is airing a television ad in South Carolina featuring the mother of a woman killed by released murderer Wayne DuMond.
The tag line: "If not for Mike Huckabee, my daughter would be alive today."
Victim's Voice's executive director is Keith Emis; here's some background; it's not clear who is paying for these ads.
Here's a look at the ad, first run in Iowa:
Good News For McCain
(1) He's back up in South Carolina. (For some reason, I kind of trust Fox News to poll Republicans...right?)
2. And the attorney general of Michigan, Mike Cox, has re-endorsed him.
Good Bye, Bill Richardson
Dear Marc,
It is with great pride, understanding and acceptance that I am ending my campaign for President of the United States. It was my hope that all of you would first hear this news from me and not a news organization. But unfortunately, as with too many things in our world today, it's the ending of something that garners the most intense interest and speculation.
I knew from the beginning that this would be an uphill climb. When I entered the campaign, it was clear that we, as Democrats, had the most talented field of candidates in my lifetime running to change the direction of our country. And in the end, one of them will.
Despite overwhelming financial and political odds, I am proud of the campaign we waged and the influence we had on the issues that matter most to the future of this country.
A year ago, we were the only major campaign calling for the removal of all of our troops within a year's time from Iraq. We were the only campaign calling for a complete reform of education in this country, including the scrapping of No Child Left Behind. And we were the campaign with the most aggressive clean energy plan and the most ambitious standards for reducing global warming.
Now, all of the remaining candidates are coming to our point of view. I am confident that the next President of the United States will implement much of what we've been urging for the last twelve months, and our nation and world will be the better for it.
There are so many of you who gave so much to this campaign. For that, I will be forever grateful. Running for president has been, at times, humbling and at other times, exhilarating. I have grown and learned a great deal from the experience, and I am a better person for it.
Also, because of your close friendship and support throughout the ups and downs of what is a very grueling and demanding process, I have never felt alone.
Running for president brings out the best in everyone who graces the stage, and I have learned much from the other candidates running. They have all brought great talents and abilities to the campaign.
Senator Biden's passion and intellect are remarkable.
Senator Dodd is the epitome of selfless dedication to public service and the Democratic Party.
Senator Edwards is a singular voice for the most downtrodden and forgotten among us.
Senator Obama is a bright light of hope and optimism at a time of great national unease, yet he is also grounded in thoughtful wisdom beyond his years.
Senator Clinton's poise in the face of adversity is matched only by her lifetime of achievement and deep understanding of the challenges we face.
Representative Kucinich is a man of great decency and dedication who will faithfully soldier on no matter how great the odds.
And all of us in the Democratic Party owe Senator Mike Gravel our appreciation for his leadership during the national turmoil of Vietnam.
I am honored to have shared the stage with each of these Democrats. And I am enormously grateful to all of my supporters who chose to stand with me despite so many other candidates of accomplishment and potential.
Now that my time in this national campaign has come to an end, I would urge those who supported my candidacy to take a long and thoughtful look at the remaining Democrats. They are all strong contenders who each, in their own way, would bring desperately needed change to our country. All I ask is that you make your own independent choice with the same care and dedication to this country that you honored me with during this campaign. At this time, I will not endorse any candidate.
Now I am returning to a job that I love, serving a state that I cherish and doing the work of the people I was elected to serve. As I have always said, I am the luckiest man I know. I am married to my high school sweetheart. I live in a place called the Land of Enchantment. I have the best job in the world. And I just got to run for president of the United States.
It doesn't get any better than that.
With my deepest appreciation for all that you have done,
Bill
Governor Bill Richardson
The Governor's Mansion
Santa Fe, New Mexico
Giuliani's New Ad
Mitt $$ Spin
There's a difference between raising $5M for the primary and raising $3.5M for the general and $1.5M for the primary.
For one thing -- you can return the unused general election money if you don't make it to the nomination.
So -- and I'm not trying to be smarmy marmy here, it's probably fairly easy for Romney's supporters to fork up a donation they anticipate getting back.
Kerry Picks Obama
Sen. John Kerry will endorse Sen. Barack Obama at 11:00 a.m. in Charleston, two Democratic sources say.
Within the past 24 hours, Obama's also been endorsed by Rep. George Miller, the consiglieri to the Speaker of the House, and by Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD).
That means Florida on the 29th looms very large. The outcome of the contest in the Sunshine State is likely to have a disproportionate impact on the 23 contests on Super Tuesday.
In Florida, there are no delegates awarded, so the Democrats won't be campaigning there. Doesn't seem from the article that Rove is aware of this. But maybe he means that the media's coverage of the Democratic "winner" will be dispositive for Feb. 5? But the media isn't likely to cover the Democrats....
Update From Hillaryland
Sen. Clinton's decision to beat Obama to Nevada means that she is definitely contesting the state, whether or not he has an edge there. Union endorsements don't usually mean too much, but Nevada is a caucus, and that means that there is no secret ballot, and that means that the 60,000 members of the Culinary Workers Local 226 in Las Vegas will be expected to turn out and expected to publicly caucus for Barack Obama or face, at the very least, significant pressure from their peers.
One sign of ferment: in an extremely unusual decision, the campaign decided to let reporters listen to its internal fundraising telephone conference with top fundraisers, on which the campaign chairman and others spoke candidly about the campaign's financial situation and prospects and previewed strategy.
On the call, campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe promised to outraise Barack Obama through January, said the campaign had received more than $5M in pledges since last night, and hinted that the campaign had been low on cash reserves since Jan. 1.
Who's Leading The GOP Delegate Hunt? Huckabee Or Romney?
It depends on whether you consider Iowa's delegates, who technically haven't been chosen yet and who can change affiliations, if they want.
January 9, 2008
Size Guru: McCain v. Romney
In Michigan today:
1. “Meanwhile, about 60 people are waiting for Romney to show up at his 2:30 p.m. event in Grand Rapids, including media. Word is, he might be there within the hour, so he's rather late.”
2. “McCain @ Oakland Co. Airport: I hear he had 800-1,000 people at a rally there.”
Free Media And HRC: A Skeptic
A reader writes:
I am curious as to why you don't credit the HUGE amount of free media beginning with [Monday night's] nightly news broadcasts, presumably local news at 11 (I don't know as I didn't see), and all of [Tuesday]'s morning programs leading with the emotional moment? Was network television not blanketed for the final run up to primary day with video of an emotional, vulnerable, "human" Hillary Clinton desperately explaining how much she cares???
Is there really no correlation to the incredible amount of free media this moment received and the strong support she enjoyed among women?
Or am I just being cynical that the woman who has been in the national spotlight since 1991, not cracking once (so far as I can remember, but maybe there was something) just happened to show her human, feminine, vulnerable side the day before the New Hampshire primary (three hours prior to a series of already scheduled network anchor interviews) and four days after losing Iowa where she surprisingly didn't have enough appeal among women?
The Daily Five: An Awesome Map
1. Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin* endorses Barack Obama.
"Barack Obama is a dynamic, smart, and experienced leader who has demonstrated the capacity to bring people together across party, race and gender lines. He inspires me and has inspired so many others. As a leader I believe he can build consensus to bring Americans together over the issues we care most about like health care, the economy and foreign policy."
* Some latent prejudice revealed itself: I initially wrote Shirley Chisolm. Yikes.
5. Here's a fantastic map of the New Hampshire primary results created by Nicholas Beaudrot.
Romney Memo: A Path To Victory
MEMORANDUM
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: ALEX GAGE
STRATEGIST, ROMNEY FOR PRESIDENT
DATE: JANUARY 9, 2008
RE: THE PATH TO VICTORY
As we move forward in the primary process, I thought I would take this opportunity to update you on Gov. Romney’s path to victory in the upcoming primaries. After a strong second place finish in Iowa and a tremendous rally to finish in second place in New Hampshire, Gov. Romney has won the most votes of any Republican candidate. The Republican race remains wide open.
Here’s why:
Gov. Romney’s message of change generated momentum in New Hampshire. As recently as Saturday, Gov. Romney trailed in New Hampshire by as many as 14 points (ARG Poll, 1/4-1/5). To come back from a double-digit deficit to finish just 5 points behind John McCain is a tremendous achievement, made possible by Gov. Romney’s debate performance on Sunday night. Frank Luntz of Fox News declared that “Mitt Romney consistently got the best responses of the entire evening” from a focus group of Republican primary voters. And it wasn’t just Sunday’s debate—Gov. Romney’s emphasis on retail politics and our superior grassroots organization also tipped the scales back towards us in the final hours. Gov. Romney closed a great deal of ground very quickly and we expect to continue this strong momentum into Michigan.
Gov. Romney is the best candidate in the Republican field to match up against the Democrats in the fall. Regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, the contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has refocused the Republican race. Gov. Romney is the Republican candidate who can stand and successfully debate the Democrats about the future of this nation. Republicans know that we must wage a campaign that offers a choice between two clearly different visions for the future, not a choice between the past and the future.
No other candidate is competitive in as many states as Gov. Romney. Gov. Romney is the only candidate who is competitive in every state before February 5: building on our victory in Wyoming and strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, we head to the remaining states with strong organizations in place. Note that Gov. Romney actually beat John McCain among Republicans yesterday (35%-34%) and most of the upcoming primaries and caucuses attract an electorate far more Republican than New Hampshire’s. Yesterday’s results also show that most independents will choose the Democratic ballot in open primary states.
We are taking nothing for granted in any state. But being competitive in every contest over the next month means Gov. Romney will continue to be in the headlines, will continue to pick up delegates, and will continue to build a strong grassroots organization nationwide while other candidates sit on the sidelines. Gov. Romney will also benefit from a base built by our paid and earned media over the past month—no other candidate is in as solid a position in all the remaining January states. Also it is important to remember that the delegate-rich states of Michigan and Florida are winner-take-all by congressional district—a format that will benefit campaigns that have organized their field efforts to focus on key districts.
Bottom line: Gov. Romney has a clear path to victory moving forward. We are prepared to fight and win in the key states throughout the rest of January – putting us in position to win both Super Tuesday and the nomination.
DNC Begins McCain Bracketing: "Pro-Bush Republican" with "Right Wing Baggage."
Faced with the prospect of John McCain as the Republican nominee, again, the Democratic National Committee is distributing a bracketing memo designed to make the case that McCain isn't the insurgent of old old -- he's the Bush-loving conservative-cozying, principle-compromising McCain of, well, new old.
The memo notes that McCain received nearly 25,000 fewer votes in 2008 than in 2000 and that his share of the independent vote fell.
From the memo: "McCain’s reinvention as a right-wing partisan might convince the Republican base that they don’t have to worry about the Maverick McCain standing in the way of a radical right wing agenda. However, swing voters who are looking for the Maverick McCain might be puzzled when this version of John McCain shows up at their doorstep with his new baggage in tow."
The full memo is after the jump.
I asked Jill Hazelbaker, McCain's communications director, to respond to the DNC's decision to take on McCain's political prospects.
"Why? Because they don't want to run against him," she said.
Respond, in the comments, to these thoughts and questions.
(1) Two races, totally wide open. Unlike recent history -- more like the 1980s.
(2) Clinton can expect a fund raising bonanza
(3) McCain can expect a fund raising bonanza
(4) The press eats crow; those who declared Clinton dead (me?) and Romney alive (me?) have some explaining to do. But the polls were right on the GOP side and wrong on the Republican side.
(4.5) Was there a racial premium in Obama's support? Did whites in New Hampshire overstate their actual support for him?
(5) Was the press really unfair to HRC?
(6) Can the events of one news cycle change an entire race? (HRC crying) -- Feiler's Faster Thesis.
(7) Did women revolt as women?
(8) Does Clinton revisit her decision to scale back operations in South Carolina? Nevada?
(9) Does John Edwards hang his hat in southern states -- Alabama, Georgia -- and run a Fred-Thompson-like strategy? He still has a few million in the bank...
(10) Mike Huckabee's third place finish keeps him well in the hunt for the nomination. Is he raising money?
(11) Does Fred Thompson have a raison d'etre?
(
Next Steps For John McCain
First, he has to raise money.
John McCain's presidential campaign is virtually broke, raising and spending about $25,000 a day. To do that, he will turn to a cadre of big-name fundraisers recruited way back when the campaign was projecting $120M budgets and renting high-class office space in Los Angeles.
Then he has to win Michigan -- an accomplishable task, although he needs to play tournament-quality politics.
Then he has to add staff -- lots of them. The campaign proudly runs on well-worn shoes, but the 22 contests on February 5 are not congenial to politicians with special retail politics skills. McCain has no absentee ballot program to speak of in Florida; Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney hope to bank thousands by the day of the election.
Then he has to figure out how to build momentum in Feb. 5. A win in South Carolina is possible, providing that Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson split the votes of mainline conservatives. Rudy Giuliani is superficially strong in Florida now, but there is no evidence that an accumulation of victories by McCain could erase, almost overnight, the modest groundwork that Giuliani is building in the state.
Illinois and California are McCain's top Feb. 5 targets. New York and New Jersey give all their delegates to the winner, and there's no reason to spend millions to try and soften Rudy Giuliani's home state and adopted state support.
Romney Goes Dark In FL, South Carolina
Up on television in Florida and South Carolina through yesterday, Mitt Romney is not running any television ads in those states now, according to a Republican with knowledge of the traffic purchases in the state.
Romney's campaign hasn't booked any television time in those states, either.
And it's probably for a good reason: Romney needs to focus all of his resources in Michigan.
But opponents will wonder: is Romney hedging his bets? Does he not want to spend money in South Carolina and Florida unless he wins Michigan and has a reason to stay in the race?
Some Nuggets
1. The AP says that Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has decided to hold off endorsing a Democratic presidential candidate for now. She's a KS superdelegate and has to pledge for a candidate eventually.
2. Rumours of a Mitt Romney campaign staff shake up are oh-so false.
3. A reader writes about the exit polls: "Dude, one other possibility: weekend polls suck."
Tomorrow: Eat Lunch, Figure It All Out
Tomorrow, join former Hotline editor / NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, National Journal's James Barnes, CongressDaily's David Morris, Democratic strategist Tad Devine and Republican strategist Scott Reed...
and eat lunch on us -- on the Atlantic Media Group. I mean -- on our dime, not on us, physically.
It's a State of the Race New Hampshire postmortem sponsored by MSNBC and National Journal.
"We're losing manufacturing jobs, homeowners face a credit crisis, high fuel costs are spiraling, and families are hurting. I cut taxes, built highways, reformed health care and education, and achieved record job growth. I'm Mike Huckabee and I approved this message because I believe most Americans want their next president to remind them of the guy they work with, not the guy who laid them off.
Plouffe: We Got Cash And A Message
In a memo to "interested parties" today, Barack Obama's campaign manager argues that his candidate will triumph over the next four weeks of delegate contests because he has a large financial cushion and a clear message.
Much of the memo is boilerplate -- no offense to Mr. Plouffe -- but the section on Mr. Obama's campaign finances are interesting.
In the 4th Quarter of 2007, our campaign raised $23.5 million – over $22.5 million of which is for the primary election. In that quarter, we added 111,000 new donors for a total of 475,000 donors in 2007.
In the first 8 days of 2008, we raised over $8 million and gained 35,000 new donors. Since midnight last night, we have raised another $500,000 online. We continue to build a grassroots movement that makes us best-positioned to compete financially in the primaries and caucuses coming up.
Plouffe argues that Obama has a superior precinct caucus organization in six February 5 states and in Nevada, which is holding a caucus for the first time.
Playing Devil's Advocate: Obama's near constant presence in Iowa undoubtedly trumped his television advertising and precinct organization in terms of a motivating force; it remains to be seen how Obama can engage in retail politics in 22 states simultaneously.
Plouffe writes that the Clinton campaign has set New Jersey and California as firewalls -- a correct assertion so far as it goes. But where are Obama's firewalls? I'd argue they're set up in Colorado, where the campaign is organizing heavily, and Georgia, with its large population of black Democrats.
Here is the Obama campaign's first take on its next moves:
(1) Fight fight fight. Aggressively contrast Obama with Clinton; make the contrasts sharper; throw elbows where needed.
(2) Adopt an underdog’s crouch; run the campaign as if it’s a life or death struggle between the forces of good and evil;
(3) Try to force voters to see the Obama campaign as a movement that is threatened by the establishment, much like the civil rights movement was threatened by the establishment;
(4) Use Obama’s force of personality
(5) Try to urge black voters in South Carolina not to let Clinton and Washington take “this moment” away from you
(6) Figure out what the heck happened to their field program; why they lost women
(7) Allow Clinton to have her victory for a day, and then re-engage.
..
Trying To Explain The Clinton Victory
Every time you think you know how politics works....
Consider: Hillary Clinton's own internal tracking poll projected an 11 point loss.
So her victory is more than the sum of its parts.
Here are some of those parts
** Women came home for Hillary, for some reason
** the campaign's absentee ballot program worked well
** The campaign believes that working folks had trouble voting in the caucuses;
** Clinton has always had a much deeper base of support in New Hampshire
** New Hampshire voters have already taken their independence seriously
** Barack Obama spent a month in Iowa, making an argument tailored for Iowa; he did not have the time build up the momentum in New Hampshire; the bounce was ephemeral.
** She stepped out of the bubble: she took control at her events, forcing the fire marshal to let in more voters, tearing up, giving honest answers; she’s started to warm up to her traveling press corps a bit. (A bit.)
** She took control of her campaign, writing most of her stump speech, making most of the key decisions herself
** Barack Obama’s television ads portrayed him as a god; black and white photographs with white lettering; very thematic; very arrogant, in a way – many of them featured Obama talking to voters; Clinton’s ads were more conventionally inspiring, with lots of American flags, lots of American images; not as threatening or ponderous.
** She performed well at the debate
** The tears worked; the free media was influential
And there has to be more. Maybe there was a sublimated racial conflict -- that is something that even a Clinton adviser brought up in trying to explain the day's events. The Bradley effect may be back -- although white women would appear to be the culprit, not white men, who overwhelmingly chose Obama.
Of course, the fact that women chose Clinton instead of Obama has no racial significance whatsoever. Lying to pollsters is another phenomenon, but it is hard to account for its prevalence in New Hampshire and absence in Iowa, and it's hard to account for its absence in Obama's own internal tracking polls, which are always interpreted in light of Bradley effect.
The exit polls suggest a simpler explanation: there is no reason why the Bradley effect would be present among older white women (Clinton's base) and not older white men (who voted for Obama). There is no reason unrelated to gender that would cause a demographic split like the ones shown in the exit polls, which, incidentally, turned out to be fairly accurate.
Here is my best guess: in Iowa, working class women and older women found it more difficult to caucus for a variety of reasons, professional, modal or otherwise. Voting in primaries is so much easier; it is correspondingly easier for a campaign whose voters are tougher to turn out; we've seen that young voters are ready and willing to turn
Clinton's Major Endorsement Revealed
It's Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV).
In Hillaryland, Doom, Gloom, Then Shock
To say that that the Clinton campaign was preparing for the worst understates the deep sense of gloom that settled over Hillaryland. Several senior staffers were MIA.
Clinton had taken the reins of her inner circle, self-strategized, rewritten her stump speech and generally decided to shed the hardened political shell around her personality. It worked, although she did not know it.
Yesterday morning, some of her aides dressed casually; there was no reason to spruce up.
On Monday night, the press corps had carpooled to her final campaign event; some called it the “Clinton swan song.”
The final Clinton campaign internal tracking poll projected an 11 point loss. Early in the day, a senior campaign official said the campaign’s boiler room canvasses of targeted precincts predicted a major Obama victory.
1. There was a conspiracy, somehow, because pre-election polls are just so much more valid than actual vote counts.
2. The Bradley/Wilder effect -- voters were afraid to tell pollsters they didn't want to vote for a black person, so a certain percentage of them lied about their preferences. But wait -- the pre-election polls did NOT overstate Barack Obama's support. He averaged 36.7%, according to Mark Blumenthal's compilations.
If anything, they understated Hillary Clinton's support by nine points. Let's name this phenomenon the "Dorothy Zbornak" effect -- for some reason, older women voters refused to disclose their preferences to pollsters, or refused to admit that they favored Hillary Clinton.
Mickey Kaus postulates an application of the reverse Bradley effect -- that Iowa Democrats somehow felt social pressure to stand up in front of their peers and cast a vote for a viable black candidate.
3. The exit polls were wrong. -- No -- by the third wave, they were basically correct. In Iowa and New Hampshire. So something is working for Edison-Mitofsky Research.
4. Ballot placement helped Clinton. Probably true, but it does not account for the discrepancy.
5. Obama actually won New Hampshire because both he and Clinton were allocated the same number of delegates (true) and he has more New Hampshire superdelegates than Clinton (true). Cute. But by that score, Clinton has a national lead because she has more pledged superdelegates nationwide than Obama.
6. Feiler's Faster Thesis with the Skurnik appendage. That is -- voters process information rapidly -- and they process through the information even more quickly. And uninformed late deciders usually rapidly assimilate and process late-breaking news. Again, from Mickey Kaus. Combine this with some evidence that working women are unusually late deciders...
Romney's Last Stand In Michigan
Michigan will be Mitt Romney's last stand; his advisers are cautiously optimistic. They know McCain has a built-in advantage because independents won't have any reason to vote in the Democratic primary, but they also know that McCain has give the independents a reason to vote.
Romney's campaign is worried that Mike Huckabee will siphon away social conservatives; Huckabee's allies in the state are actively working church networks. Although they've got a paid organization in the state, they're seeing an influx of McCain volunteers.
The Romney spin out of New Hampshire is this: McCain benefited from the total collapse in New Hampshire of Rudy Giuliani; virtually all of his support when to McCain; Mike Huckabee's third place finish may well have siphoned off a few points of Republicans from Romney; the Union Leader endorsement was incredibly important for Romney. McCain's special relationship with New Hampshire voters and his high favorability ratings may have inoculated himself against Romney's negative attacks.
A Clinton Metaphor
Before Obamaiania in Iowa, Sen. Clinton stood at 39% in the New Hampshire polls.
Last night, she finished at 39%.
Clinton is the best political example of an efficiently priced security.
There is so much information about her in the marketplace; there is absolute liquidity.
Obamania comes along and messes up the equilibrium.
It is restored a few days later.
On To Nevada...
The dean of the Nevada press corps, Jon Ralston, writes:
No matter what, it's game on starting tomorrow, with a strong Clinton organization, with appeal to women and Hispanics, battling the Culinary machine, other labor groups such as SEIU and the Obama phenomenon. This could be the best 10 days of covering politics in Nevada history.
For now, the big news is a split decision in Iowa and New Hampshire and, despite what the national media folks say, it's not on to South Carolina. It's Nevada Time.
The Little Caucus Could!
Obama Still Expected To Get Culinary Workers Endorsement
Sources say that the powerful Culinary Workers union in Las Vegas still plans to endorse Sen. Barack Obama at a 9:30 am ET meeting in Las Vegas tomorrow.
Obama would accept the endorsement in person on Friday.
Still, one labor source close to the union said there was a lot of "soul searching" going on tonight, and that anything could happen.
January 8, 2008
History In New Hampshire
CLINTON CAME BACK!!
AP CALLS IT FOR CLINTON, NBC, CBS TOO
** A Clinton aide: "We got our woman back and our downscale voters back and we raised the right questions about choice."
** Strategist Mark Penn: "As voters began to see the choice they have and heard Hillary speak from her heart they came back to her."
** Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe: "It's a two-person race. We're ready to go" ** Obama: "I am still fired up, ready to go!"..touts record numbers who "spoke up for change..."
** Obama aide: "FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT" -- SC is next -- "What we are is on an incredible, historic journey...are we going to let her take that away from us?"
Obama leadership cloistered to figure out what the heck happened; Clinton campaign readies "Comeback Girl" spin; readies surrogates; GENDER GAP: CLINTON WINS WOMEN 47 TO 34....Obama campaign hopes for Durham (where school isn't in) and Hanover (Dartmouth) for last minute votes...Exeter is also out. ... but Clinton leading big in big cities...Manchester and Nashua... Obama winning women under 30....
** Turnout estimate: 500,000, with 280K Democrats and 220K Republicans...exactly what
Secretary of State Bill Gardner projected.....
** Will Clinton come out first, like Bill in '92?....
** Remember: turnout guru Michael Whouley blessed the New Hampshire organization of HRC and didn't set foot in Iowa......
** Other HRC organization heroes: national political director Guy Cecil, senior adviser/program manager Karen Hicks, state director Nick Clemons...
** HRC enjoying company of friends, Terry McAuliffe, in happy private celebration in Concord
** The campaign had 150 field staff in NH...
** They knocked on 120,000 doors over the weekend... thousands more today...
THE SAGE
MORE EXIT POLL HIGHLIGHTS: Indies: 33% of the GOP electorate. They chose McCain 38% to 26%. But McCain also beat Romney among Republicans: 36% to 31%. McCain won late deciders handily. BTW: less than in five NH GOP voters indentified themselves as evangelicals. “Sharing ones values” was more important than “what a candidate believes,” which was more important than “electability.” Only 24% think Romney is qualified to be commander in chief, compared to 43% for McCain.................Obama won independents, getting nearly 50% of their votes. Independents comprised about 41% of the Democratic primary vote. But Hillary Clinton won among registered Democrats: 38% to 32%. Clinton wins women narrowly: 40% to 36%. STUNNER: 47% say Obama is most likely to beat Republicans, compared to 33% for Clinton. But Clinton is still viewed as qualified to be commander in chief: 37% say she’s the most qualified, versus Obama at 27%.
Maggie Williams, Roy Spence, Doug Sosnik to participate in post-postmortem conference call with Clinton campaign officials tomorrow; Williams may play senior managerial role; no one being fired. Edwards raises $1.6M since Iowa; Clinton raises about $1M; Obama campaign raises nearly $3M.....MOVING FORWARD: Romney plans national call day in Boston tomorrow; heads to Michigan, than South Carolina. EXIT POLLS: GOP: 3 in 10 GOP voters are independents (CORRECTED FIGURE)...many late deciders... McCain more electable than Romney...33% say economy is biggest issue followed by Iraq (22%) .... Democrats: 46% made up minds without last week.. 4 in 10 are independents.... HRC's favorability: 73%; Obama's: 84%; ... 36% say economy is top issue....
Bill Clinton to major surrogates on a conference call today: "I don't know what's going to happen. I know it's going to be a little closer than people expect. You've just got to keep your chin up and keep fighting."
Roy Spence will play major role in next iteration of Clinton campaign....Spence is longtime friend of the family who has helped rescue previous Clinton PR disasters..
Polls close at 7pm and 8pm...cities and towns report independently...results ETA: ?? ...Leaked exit polls? Not this timeDEM PRECINCTS RUNNING LOW ON BALLOTS .... TURNOUT SEEMS BRISK...One political aide; "Rock concerts at precincts".....but don't believe anecdotes...just wait until the results come in......Huckabee campaign bus gets stuck in ice...Will Clinton abandon South Carolina? Unlikely, but she'll probably spend more time in Feb. 5 states / Nevada .... candidate upbeat, but staff glum...speculation abounds about staff shake-up, but no announcements until tonight or Wednesday....
Clinton GOTV call script
All the candidates in the Democratic Primary have promised change but Hillary is the
one candidate most prepared to deliver on that promise. Hillary is counting on your
support.
→ Have you cast your vote for Hillary today?
((IF NOT REGISTERED TO VOTE:))
Remember, you can REGISTER to VOTE TODAY at the polls and then cast
your ballot for Hillary. This election is going to be very close and every
voter counts. It’s easy to do and remember Hillary is counting on you.
Romney vows to continue regardless of finish...but aides concede a win in Michigan will be tough unless he finishes close to first in NH...Obama's early morning event marred by fainting woman, tasteless Larry David joke Thompson campaigns seems "Thompson Troops" who will "pay their own way" in SC....Come on El Rushbo, you know you want to endorse Fred....
Sources: Obama campaign expects Culinary Workers' union endorsement in Nevada; may fly to Vegas on Friday to accept...Don't you...forget about me? I'll be alone...Giuliani launches Spanish language TV ad in Florida...
It was one of Mitt Romney's largest events in New Hampshire. 800 residents packed into a middle school here in this wealthy, mostly Republican suburb, with many more turned away. Cars were parked a half a mile down the road.
The candidate and his staff seemed giddy. Romney zipped through his stump speech (with scant attention paid to social values) and began to riff about change and the Democrats.
"Let's say it's Barack Obama. He's up there. And we're debating against each other. We'll both be talking about change in Washington. He'll be talking about ... big brother, big government and big taxes and that won't sell. I'll be talking about following in the footsteps that Ronald Reagan built, which is make America stronger, which is strengthen our family, strength our miliary, strengthen our economy."
"Beyond that, I'll have one more question."
"Barack, name something you've changed. Name a business you've changed. Name an Olympics or a volunteer organization you;'ve changed. You speak about change, but you've n ever done it.
Conspiracy theorists believe that Romney keeps mentioning Barack Obama in order to push independents away from John McCain.
That's a stretch.
Although a senior campaign aide did admit: "I never thought I would say this, but I am rooting for Obama tomorrow. I didn't say I'm voting for him... just rooting for him."
Neilsen: 28,000 Spots Since January
The Neilsen folks are releasing daily updates of the total number of TV spots run by candidates in this race.
Number one, everywhere, is Mitt Romney, who has aired 4010 commercials in the Boston/WMUR designated market area (this includes Manchester), 2262 in the Burlington,VA and Plattsburgh, New York markets, and 1258 ads in the Portland-Auburn market, which covers Maine and parts of Northeastern New Hampshire.
This week, Romney has aired 471 commercials in the Boston/Manchester area alone, compared to John McCain's 422 -- more parity than McCain supporters might have expected.
Barack Obama has aired 2961 spots in the Manchester/Boston market, compared to Hillary Clinton's 2681. This week, though, Clinton has aired more than 250 spots, while Obama has aired less than 190 spots. (Is he conserving resources?)
In the VA/'NY/western New Hampshire market, Obama has aired 1533 ads and Clinton has aired 1132.
The biggest discrepancy is in the Maine/eastern New Hampshire market, where Clinton has aired three times as many ads as Obama: 1446 to 530.
And how many campaign ads have been run in total: more than 28,000 since January.
"I know you've waited a long time for a president who could hear you and see you. We're not just changing presidents, we're changing our country. I hope you'll vote for me and help me change America. And, if you stand with me, I will stand up for you every day as your president. I'll work my heart out to bring the country we love the new beginning it needs and I will be ready to start on day one. Thank you."
And Mitt Romney's.
"Will your children fear attack from violent Jihadists? "Or will they be safe and secure in a stronger America? "America needs to get ready for these and many other new challenges. "There isn't a single challenge we can't overcome with the spirit, determination and imagination that has always been at the heart of the American people. "If you want to change Washington, and get America ready for the future, America needs you now.
Pro-Life Hecklers Interrupt Obama Event, And He Sees A Teachable Moment
After listening to their chants, Obama said he'd speak with them later.
He is, after all, the candidate who has promised to reconcile opposites and listen to his opponents.
But they would not quiet down, and Obama's audience began to shout his campaign slogan: "Fire it up, ready to go!'
"For the folks who are opposed to abortion, I understand your position, but this isn't going to solve anything," Obama said.
He walked to the edge of the stage.
"Are you going to do this the whole time, or are we going to have to reschedule?"
Police officers removed the protesters, and Obama saw a teachable moment.
"Some people got organized to do that, and that's part of the American tradition that we're proud of" he said.
"The excitement is over."
"Or, it's just beginning."
CNN/WMUR: The Last Poll....
From the folks at the University of New Hampshire.
Perhaps momentum has attenuated for Barack Obama: he leads Hillary Clinton by a healthy nine points, 39 to 30. But still.
And John McCain has a narrow lead over Mitt Romney, 31 to 26.
There are plenty of undecideds -- about 30% on the Republican side and 21% on the Democratic side.
Campaign Chaos In Concord
CONCORD -- In a way, you had to feel bad for Pat Garland. An on-duty parking enforcement agent for the city, he could not get to his car to ticket cars illegally parked along North Main Street because a crowd of reporters and candidate supporters blocked his way.
"I'm just trying to get my car out, but these guys are in the way."
Huckabee was inside the Old Barley Restaurant here, tasting the Huckaburger: bison meat, spinach on a whole wheat bun. It's only available for a day.
Outside, a Paul supporter taunted a younger Huckabee fan: "Hey, what if the rapture happens? What then? Who's going to win the election then?"
There were a few rounds of "RONPAUL" -- it's one word when it's shouted -- and "Huck-a-bee." There were more Paul signs that Huckabee signs. 30 yards down the street, sign-waving Barack Obama supporters spouted his campaign slogan: "Fire It Up, Ready to Go."
Media types wandered by.
Bob Scheiffer of CBS. ... Tammy Haddad. ... Chris Matthews, who Haddad promptly interviewed with an HD camera for Newsweek's special campaign book. Mark Shields posed for a picture with a fan. Jake Tapper walked around asking voters about change. A bunch of us Atlantic folks tried to find a lunch place. Passersby recognized a few scribes from the New York Times. Gail Collins and David Brooks from the editorial page.
About an hour later, the crowd wandered across the street where John McCain was scheduled to hold a rally. He was 45 minutes late, but no one left, which was surprising in one sense: half the crowd, it seems, supported Ron Paul.
A McCain volunteer lamely tried to convince the crowd to chant "The Mac Is Back," but he failed, repeatedly, and an Irish bagpipe band played a discordant dirge.
McCain arrived and seemed out of sorts. He noticed a few "Global Warming" signs and the younger Paul supporters and spent a plurality of his short speech promising to make global warming a priority.
As if on cue, a chunk of melting snow fell off the statehouse roof and onto several McCain supporters on the steps. McCain paused; everyone was OK, although one well-put together woman was thoroughly soaked.
Obama's Crowds
The campaign estimates that Obama has seen 21,000 voters in person since Iowa.
Romney Is Not Out
Don't count out a surprisingly strong showing by Mitt Romney on Tuesday.
For one thing, the polls are very tight; there was no real post-Iowa bounce for John McCain; he was rising before Iowa and seems to have a ceiling at about 35%.)
Romney seems liberated on the trail -- like a hose unbent. He is full of energy; his television ads are excellent; his debate performance last night was stellar.
He has spent more than $10M securing the approval of conservative Republicans, has held more than 40 town hall meetings in the state, has traveled here more than any candidate, is from a neighboring state, has a natural base here.
There are no alternative conservative choices with a shot at winning the nomination.
A lot of voters in Concord this morning told me they were choosing between Romney and Huckabee -- and this was at a McCain event.
And while there are many vestiges of the old McCain, he is more negative, has more baggage,
is still unacceptable on immigration, and was on the air late.
Bring On The Tears
I just don 't want to see us fall backwards. This is very personal for me. This is not just political. It's just public. I see what's happening... we have to reverse it. Some people think ... against some pretty difficult odds. And we do it each one of us because we care about our country. But some of us are right and some of us are not.
I was in Concord for the morning and missed the video moment of the day, one that the cablers are playing over and over and the sure-fire lead of the day on New Hampshire television.
Journalists on the trail say it was the most vulnerable they had ever seen Clinton and the media is playing its sympathetic.
Clinton and many -- though not all -- of the candidates work extremely hard at campaigning, and the strenuous exertions of the trail have turned into a proxy for experience. (Why does John Edwards get away with his relative inexperience? Because he's run before.)
Not only is the physical stress getting to Clinton, but because she has in the past few days, taken control of the strategic direction of her campaign, she is a manager and a candidate.
She (and Bill) wrote most of her revised stump speech, an adviser said.
Many Polls; Same Results
Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by an average of 7-10 points; John McCain is 4 to 6 points ahead of Mitt Romney.
** A weekend sample from CBS News of the same voters from its November survey gives Barack Obama a 35 to 28 to 19 lead over Clinton and Edwards. Clinton's electability quotient dropped from 72 to 41 points, suggesting that Iowa's propulsive effect -- a social cuing effect, mostly -- was huge. Obama leads independents by a lot; Clinton leads Democrats by a little; there are more Dems than independents in the sample, but Obama's margin among them more than makes up for his lag on Democrats.
** Marist has Obama at 36, Clinton at 28, and Edwards at 22. For GOPers, McCain leads Romney by 4 points, 35 to 31, but the margin of error is +/- 4.5%.
** The Republican race is close, according to USA Today/Gallup: McCain leads 34 to 30 (outside the margin of error for that poll, but barely). A whopping 30% remain undecided, and economic issues / illegal immigration are the top two important issues.
** On the Dem side, Obama leads Clinton 41 to 28, with Edwards at 19. 30% remain undecided, but 31% of the sample say they are "certain" to vote for Obama. Iraq, the economy and health care are the top three issues. By 51% to 26%, voters say Obama has the new ideas that would solve the country's problems.
Daily Clinton Talking Points: "Rhetoric v. Results"
Here are the latest talking points distributed to Sen. Clinton's campaign surrogates and allies.
We always knew and said Iowa would be our toughest state, which is why we built this campaign to compete in states across the nation through February 5th. Democrats around the country are going to have their voices heard in determining the next President and we have the resources and the organization to make our case from start to finish.
Rhetoric vs. Results, Talk vs. Action
Last night at the debate New Hampshire voters saw the difference between talk versus action, rhetoric and results.
Hillary Clinton has a real record of making change and getting results for New Hampshire families. If you want to know what kind of change the candidates will make, look at the change they have already made.
She took the lead in the White House on ensuring that 6 million kids nationwide have health insurance, including 7,000 children in New Hampshire.
She worked with Republicans and helped pass legislation that guaranteed that every member of our National Guard and Reserves has access to health care. As a result 2700 New Hampshire members of the Guards and Reserves have access to health care regardless of their deployment status.
She took the lead in passing legislation that helped ensure that up to 324,000 children in New Hampshire have been vaccinated.
She took the lead in passing legislation that helped double the number of adoptions out of foster care.
Hillary’s real record of action and results for New Hampshire families serves in sharp contrast to her opponents.
At the debate last night it was clear when opponents were asked what change they had made:
Instead of telling New Hamphsire voters what he had done for them, Barack Obama defended rhetoric and talk and cited legislation that bans sit-down meals with lobbyists but allows them to stand up and eat together.
Obama talked about government reform, but denied that the co-chair of his New Hampshire campaign is a lobbyist. He talked about energy reform but couldn’t defend his vote in favor of Dick Cheney’s energy plan that gave the big oil companies billions in tax breaks. He talked about his speech against the war, but didn't explain why he voted for 300 billion in funding for the war and why he said as late as 2004 that he didn’t know how he would have voted on the war.
And all John Edwards could point to on behalf of New Hampshire families was legislation that passed the Senate but never passed Congress and was never signed into law.
Hillary said no matter how beautifully presented, words are not action and pointed to real accomplishments that made real change for people.
The choice for New Hampshire voters is clear – Hillary Clinton’s action and results vs her opponents’ rhetoric and talk
Obama's In New York On Wednesday
Where will Barack Obama go the day after New Hampshire?
Right into the heart of Sen. Clinton's financial heartland, New York City.
The campaign has scheduled a high-dollar fundraiser on Wednesday evening at the Grand Hyatt New York about Grand Central Station.
One of the sponsors of the event is Jordan Tamagni, a former speechwriter for Bill Clinton.
$2300 gets you a photo with the man himself.
Turnout On Tuesday
Here's what Secretary of State Bill Gardner projects:
500,000 voters.
90,000 independents choose Obama.
60,000 independents choose McCain.
260,000 votes for Democrats
240,000 votes for Republicans
So -- about 25% of the Republican primary vote will be comprised of independents.
And 33% of the Democratic primary vote will be comprised of independents.
The road forward for John McCain is clear: run close to even among Republicans and get the majority of independents.
A 500,000 project splits the difference between the last presidential electon (674K) and the last gubernatorial election (417K).
Signs Of the Times
Reader J.B. writes:
"In addition to the statistics you cite, there was another aspect of that CNN/WMUR poll that I find fascinating. Barack Obama has a 54% favorable rating among likely Republican primary voters. John McCain has a 62% favorable rating among likely Democratic primary voters. No other candidate can muster more than 30% among the opposition voters, and both Clinton and Romney have really dismal numbers (15% and 16%, respectively)."
January 6, 2008
Oh. There's The Bounce.
Sneaky fellah. Hiding from us. Must have thought New Hampshire was as cold as Iowa and didn't want to come out.
The CNN/WMUR/UNH track from Saturday night and into Sunday shows Obama at 39, Clinton at 29, and Edwards at 16.
Clinton leads among Democrats and Obama among independents.
The Fox News Debate
I didn't watch it, having been occupied trying to chase down a story that turned out to be false, so here is an amalgam of the best from the other political blogs:
** Mitt Romney comes out of the debate swinging, early on.
He asked Huckabee: ""Did you raise taxes in your state by half-a-billion dollars?" He later said: "Mike you make up facts faster than you talk, and that says something."
When Huckabee said his tax hikes had "raised jobs," Romney "nailed him."
** John McCain took a shot at the experience of governors...
** ABC noticed that the Fox News crawl noted that Giuliani lives with his "current" wife. (As opposed to living with a former wife.)
** How much does Romney sound like Barack Obama here?
"[McCain is] an agent of change, and worked hard to bring change to certain areas, but Washington is fundamentally broken and one of the reasons I'm running for president, i believe that my lifetime of work in the private sector and in the voluntary sector and as a governor has taught me how to bring about fundamental change. "
Clinton's Theme Encapsulated
Talkers b. Doers.
As she said in Manchester: "We're starting to draw a contrast for New Hampshire voters between talkers and doers."
Its three nights of interviews straddled the Iowa results — before, during and after — and could have recorded merely a blip for Obama or the start of a wave. It also came before potentially pivotal debates in New Hampshire Saturday night and Sunday that could swing the Tuesday vote in any direction.
Underscoring the volatility: Three of ten likely voters in each party said they could still change their minds; nearly one of ten New Hampshire independents said they still hadn't decided in which primary to vote.
But the poll may have picked up the beginning of an Obama rally. Obama trailed Clinton by 30-27 the first two nights of the polling, then surged ahead by 39-32 Friday night — the day after Iowa. The nightly sample of 200 was small, however, and subject to a greater margin of error.
Movement In The Clinton World
A campaign source says that Philippe Reines, nearly six years the press secretary for Sen. Clinton in the Senate and for three years an after-hours political adviser, has been quietly elevated to the title of "Senior Adviser."
Reines joines the rarified ranks of such luminaries as Sidney Blumenthal and Huma Abedin and Karen Hicks. Reines is a favorite quotemeister of reporters but is fiercely loyal to Clinton, a quality, as you know, that the candidate values highly.
Though his role these days is largely behind the scenes, Reines is the institutional memory of the Clinton press shop... having been on the recieving end of his sardonic e-mails, I can confirm that he knows just about everything Clinton has done or said while she's been in the Senate, including the ins and outs of her highly nuanced stand on Iraq.
Other movement in the Clinton world: Doug Hattaway, a former aide to Al Gore and a Democratic consultant, has taken a senior advisory role in New Hampshire and is said to have been fairly quickly accepted into the New Hampshire inner circle; such entrances usually take a while in Hillary Land.
Dem strategist Kiki McLean has been brought in to manage the campaign's growing surrogate operation; long-time Clinton adviser Capricia Marshall handles the day-to-day direction of their activities.
False Hope "Bugs The Heck" Out Of Obama
An interesting addition to Sen. Barack Obama's stump speech, based on a line from Hillary Clinton during last night's debate.
“In the face of such cynicism, in the course of this campaign, I was derided… last night one of my opponents said that we should stop giving people false hope, that we need a reality check. What kind of an agenda is that, false hope?"
"The notion of false hopes bugs the heck out of me, if we have a sense of urgency and political will we can get things done."
BTW: Bill Bradley will endorse him tomorrow.
What To Make Of Obama
One aide to Barack Obama has accused me of bias because I haven't joined the orgy of adulatory press coverage three days after Iowa.
Well, that's probably because, as a rule, I tend not to post items unless they advance some new thought or add value to thoughts already thought.
The truth is, it is hard to describe what happened in Iowa in a fashion that comports with the skepticism I try to bring to cause and effect.
For example: I asked David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist, to explain the Iowa victory, and he said, "People wanted change."
Well, yes. Maybe that's where Axelrod's curiosity ends, but mine goes deeper.
For example: there is something about the Clinton brand that a younger generation of Democrats does not buy. Younger votes in Iowa did not choose Hillary Clinton.
There is something about Obama's appeal that eluded previous process-oriented reformers (Babbitt, Hart, Tsongas, Bradley). It's not just his race -- that seems to me to be a marker for liberals of generational change. It's not just the amount of he's raised. It's not that he's a man of the world.
In sum, maybe it's just that Obama is more than the sum of his parts. And that's hard to describe.
His crowds in New Hampshire are amazing. 3000+ in Exeter. 2500 in Nashua. 1500 (including 500 who were turned away) in New Hampshire on a Sunday morning.
** McCain;s favorability rating is greater than 80%. That's an enormous ballast for McCain and a signal of the tough challenge facing Romney. Romney and McCain are seen as equally electable.
** Independents say they're choosing Democrats by a ratio of 5.5 to 4.5. ... down from 6 to 3 in April of '07.
** 49% of Democrats are either leaning or undecided...
** 32% of Dems think Clinton best represents Dems like themselves
** Clinton and Obama are seen as equally electable...
** Only 16% of New Hampshire Dems say Obama has the "right" experience to be president
** Only 28% of Dems think Clinton is the one to bring "needed change" to the country
January 5, 2008
Democratic Debate Thoughts
Iowa nice replaced by New Hampshire ice? Naw.
Fireworks did not pop; differences were laid out politely, for the most part; there was little interrupting and even some friendly joshing between Clinton and Obama.
Obama had a broader voter focus than Clinton. She wants – and needs – Democrats to turn out; he wants, and needs, independents AND Democrats to turn out for him on Tuesday.
Iowa victor Obama had a target on his back, but he’s acquired a Kevlar vest as a frontrunner.
Like Clinton tonight, he was unflappable. Voters at these late days tend to favor the calm, cool, collected candidates who don’t sweat under pressure, who don’t stutter or seem flustered. He patiently rebutted charges about health care, his fip-flops, his uniqueness as a change agent.
Some of the rebuttals seemed effective, some didn’t.
Clinton seemed to be trying to do two things. One is to try and pry away voters who want change and like Obama but who are concerned about his experience. If just enough of those voters switch to her, she could win New Hampshire. The other was to try and blot out the halo that’s surrounded Obama ever since he won Iowa. The messages are a little paradoxical: he’s just like one of us Democrats (who supported single payer at one point) but .. at the same time,
Hillary Clinton is the Democratic agent of change. I think Clinton handled the substance of her
offensive fairly well. She did not hector Obama or inject unduly extraneous adjectives; and perhaps she’ll succeed in getting reporters and voters to start asking Obama a little more about his record. At best, the headline Clinton gets out of the debate is that she questions Obama’s qualifications… so long as the headline isn’t “Clinton on the defensive” or “Flailing Clinton
Assails Obama,” then she left the museum in the same condition it was when she entered. Clinton’s theme was accountability: “I think it’s important that we’re all held accountable.” Obama, she said, voted in favor of a 2005 energy bill larded with special interest subsidies. And she made this argument: “Words are not action. As beautifully presented and passionately felt, they are not action. What we need to do is to translate thought into action and feeling into reality.” She also got to make an argument that works for her but has been overshadowed a bit: being the first woman president is great.
Richardson had his best night; passionate statements on Iraq and the economy; on how “Washington bickering” leaves all the problem-solving to the governors; the format allowed him plenty of time. He may be leagues behind the frontrunner, but if this were the Iowa caucuses and second choices mattered, he’d be peachy.
No demerits on style, but I found it hard to pay attention to John Edwards. Maybe it’s the New Hampshire orientation and the fact that the economy has been transformed here and that, unadorned populism doesn’t work as well here, or maybe it’s a function of my having assumed the press’s desire to winnow this race, but Edwards’s shtick seemed kind of shtick and as comfortable as a wet sock. A sock that got wet wading through the snow and ice in Iowa and, at the end of a long journey, needs to be laundered.
The Edwards Moment
Edwards: "You cannot nice these people to do death. You cannot work with them. It takes backbone, strength, fight."
Obama's Moment
"Look. I think it’s easy to be cynical and say it can'’t be gone because Washington has been designed to resist change, but there have been periods of the American history where presidents have inspired American people to do better, and I think we’re in one of those moments right now."
More: "Words do inspire. Words do help people get involved. Don’t’ discount that power. When the American people are determined that something is going to happen, it’s going to happen.”
Perhaps the HRC Moment Of The Night...
“Words are not action. As beautifully presented and passionately felt, they are not action. What we need to do is to translate thought into action and feeling into reality.”
But the moderators are being unfair to Obama, to whom that quote was directed.
He kept trying to interject and Scott Spradling kept letting Clinton go on,and Obama seemed to get progressively angrier.
And then Charlie Gibson confronts the subject head on, allowing Clinton to make the argument that Bill Clinton had, in fact, substantively changed the economy for the better.
Clinton Questions Obama As Agent Of Change
Clinton: "I think that we’re all advocating for change. We all want to change the status quo which is George W. Bush and the Republican domination of Washington… I don’t think you make change by calling for it or demanding it…I do think that part of what this primary process is all about,a nd New Hampshire voters are famously independent in making our judgments…there is a lot of our room to ask all of our questions…Sen. Obama could have a pretty good debate with himself…four years ago, he was for single payer health care, then he moved to a more incremental approach, then he was for universal health care, then he moved toward a plan he doesn’t cover everybody."
Obama: "I have entirely consistent on my position on health care. If I was designing a system from scratch, I would set up a single payer system. What I’ve also said is that given that half the people are getting employer-based health care, it would be impractical to do so. John and yourself believe that if we don’t force taxpayers to buy health care, that we won’t penalize them in some fashion. I disagree that because I don’t meet people who are trying to avoid getting health care, … it’s that people who don’t afford it."
Obama talks about raising the payroll taxes…
Clinton: “You have a mandate. Obviously, you did that because you want all children covered. So.. you stopped short of going the distance to make sure that we had a system that could actually deliver health care for everyone. “You’ve changed positions within three years on a range of issues…youv’e said you would vote against the Patriot Act, you came to the send, you voted for it… you voted for 300 billion dollars [of Iraq war spending]…”
Obama: “What I think is important that we don’t do is that we try to distort each other’s record as the primary here in New Hampshire approaches.”
Edwards: “Anytime you speak out for change, the forces of status quo attack...”
Clinton: “Making change is not about what you do believe. It’s not about a speech you make. It’s about working hard. There are 7,000 kids who have health care because I worked hard to help create the children’s health insurance program. I want to make change, but I’ve always made change. I’m not just promise of change, I’m running of 35 years of change..taking on the drug companies, the health insurance companies, the oil companies. We don’t need to be raising the false hopes of our country about what can be delivered.”
Nuclear Terrorism
Obama is asked first...
Gibson says he outlines the Bush doctrine...
"Here we have the situation where Al Q has killed 3000 Americans is in the territory of Pakistan ... we know that... my job as commander in chief will be to make sure that we strike anyone who would do America harm.."
Edwards agrees...says the policy now is "ad hoc" and pledges a long-term international initiative to rid the world of nuclear weapons.
Richardson says to a skeptical Charlie Gibson that he would ask Musharrif to step aside. "I would make it unmistakably clear that he would have to have elections." ... "Diplomacy is to try to get what's best for the United States."
Wow -- HRC uses her husband's failed strike at Pakistan in 1998 as a reason why caution should be exercised in this affair...but gives a very sophisticated answer about the interrelationship between insecure weapons and India's fears.
The flaw of the Bush doctrine, Obama says, is that Iraq distracts from the war on terror. More..."Iraq....Iraq....Iraq..."
The GOP Debate: Thoughts....
On points, Fred Thompson won the debate.
Every answer was thoughtful and well-crafted; his tone matched the tone of the question; he wisely refrained from interjecting in the back and forth squabbling. He very deftly reminded viewers that he served on key Senate national security panels and is bringing his experience to bear. Even his insults were subtly and gently constructed In some ways, Thompson did McCain’s bidding. You skeptical readers can tell me that if Thompson had finished a solid fourth in Iowa, I might not be writing about Thompson at all, that said, he's still a candidate, and his performance tonight tells me his mind is not elsewhere.
Romney sounded like a hose, unbent, finally released after months of building up pressure… his vast intellectual energy gushes forth… but he sounded almost too unfocused… the water, to continue the metaphor, sprayed everywhere. He was backed into a corner on mandates in health care by Fred Thompson. He gave strong answers on energy independence toward the end. He was a target all night, though, for everyone.
In this chess game, every move against Romney helps John McCain, so McCain, who debated evenly, solidly, if not spectacularly, probably gets the biggest juice out of the debate.
Mike Huckabee did little to stick out, which seemed to be deliberate. Same with Rudy Giuliani.
A Magical Moment
I'm a sucker for these, but there was something edifying and clarifying about the photo op ABC News just staged.
My political instincts tell me that ABC's contrived bipartisan moment best helps those candidates who are appealing to an emotion greater than party affiliation.
Wonder what Romney and Obama were talking about?
Now -- I'm a former ABC News'er, so I am biased, but kudos to Charlie Gibson, David Chalian, the political unit, producer Marc Burstein, director Roger Goodman, and the rest of the folks who've put together this unorthodox, informative debate.
Romney Calls Obama The Change Candidate
Refers to Iowa...
Thompson: "Sen. Obama has adopted the position of every liberal interest group in this country."
McCain: "I just want to say with Gov. Romney, I agree: you are the candidate of change."
On Obama: "He does not have the national security experience."
Romney: "The continued personal barbs are interested but unnecessary."
"HRC, Bill Richardson" made that same argument in Iowa, and he blew them away..."
McCain: "this is an Iowa Democrat primary we're talking about. "
Rudy: "I think the problem that Barack Obama will face is that he has never run a city, has never had executive experience..."
Huckbaee: "I think there would be substantial differences on the second amendment, on life, on the role of government..."
Romney Demotes P.J. O'Rourke
From satirist and writer to..
comedian.
Immigration...the best debate of the cycle
McCain gives his standard campaign trail answer on his immigration evolution.
Romney calls McCain's position a "form of amnesty." Calls for secure border, an employment verification system, an ID card...
McCain wants to respond, but he won;t..
Giuliani asked whether illegals who have been identified within the US should leave before they could apply for citizenship... "You can't throw out all 12 million people. I would focus on the illegal immigrants who are here who have committed crimes... with the people that are here... I think what you would do then is, say to the 12 million people who are here...come forward, get an ID card...the ones who do come forward would have to pay taxes, would have to pay a fine...would have to a pay a fine" -- but would be able to stay in the country.
McCain: "No better authority than Gov. Romney said it was not amnesty."
Romney: "What he described is that his campaign does not provide amnesty...he charges people $5000 to stay...which is technically not amnesty."
McCain: "That is not true....you said it was reasonable."
Romney asks McCain what his plan is..McCain says it's like Rudy's plan...
McCain: "For you to describe it as you do...you can spend your whole fortune on these attack ads, but it still won't be true."
McCain: "There is no special right associated with my plan..."
Romney: "Are they sent home?"
McCain: "Some of them home and some of them aren't..."
Lots more debate...Rudy points out that Reagan declared amnesty..
Romney, McCain, Huckabee commercials on WMUR in the first commercial break
Thompson's Performance So Far...
He and McCain sound like the adults on stage. Thompson is excelling on policy and style... McCain is even and cool-tempered... both doing what they need to do.
-------
I just thought this was interesting.
Romney: "Don't turn the pharmaceutical companies into the big bad guys."
McCain: "Well, they are."
Health Care
And Romney is in his wheelhouse. He's been very strong so far and seems very eager to get in on every question, but his answers aren't forced. The Real Mitt Romney...
But then there's this:
Romney: "I like mandates..."
Thompson: "What? Did you ... I didn't know you'd admit that."
Romney: "Let me tell you the kind of mandates I like"
Thompson: "The ones you come up with"
Romney: "If someone who can afford insurance and doesn't buy it and gets sick, they should pay their own way...."
Thompson: "The government is going to force you to buy insurance..."
Romney and Thompson argue about the specifics of his mandate.
Gibson presses him on whether nationally, he'd impose mandates:
Romney: "in my national plan, I would not mandate that every state do what we do..."
Lots of Arguing Over Flip-Flopping...
That's kind of boring.
In the meantime, here';s a rush transcript of that moment between Romney and Huckabee a few moments ago:
GOV. ROMNEY: hold on. No, i didn't, sorry. But i read his. Number two, i did support the surge. It was senator mccain of all of us, who supported the surge. On the same day that the president announced the surge, i had spoken with fred kagan, who is one of the brilliant theorists in this regard. I called for a different number. So, i also supported the surge, from the very beginning. But, look -- governor, don't try to characterize my position.
HUCKABEE: which one?
GOV. ROMNEY: You know, we're wise to talk about policies. And not to make personal attacks.
HUCKABEE: It's not a personal attack, mitt. You also supported a timed withdrawal and senator pryor from my state, was prize praising you for that.
A Bush Video Is Used To Pose A Constituency About Principles
McCain: "The principles and philosophies I have held since at age 17 I raised my hand as a midshipman at the United States Naval Academy.."
OK -- break -- how the hell can Romney possibly top that, regardless of what he says...
Picking up McCain: "I believe that for the last 20 years, I've been engaged in every national security issue..."
His voice is in its low rumble mode...
Romney: "When I sat down with my family to decide whether to get into this race......I am convinced that America is the greatest nation on earth...that we are a good nation, we are a strong nation..."
Charlie Wanted A Foodfight
(these quotes aren't exact)
Romney: "You know, you're not correctly characterizing my position..."
Huckabee: "Which one?"
And Giuliani -- literally -- says -- "Ooooooh..."
Romney: "Eh... you know...personal attacks are not helpful"
Huck: "well, you also supported a timed withdrawal..."
Romney: "I've never supported a time withdrawal. It's really helpful, when you talk about your your policies and I'll talk about my policies."
---
As I type, the candidates are arguing about who is being nice or mean to Muslims.
McCain, to Paul: "Boy, we're going to miss you tomorrow night!"
The Debate Begins
First question about the Bush foreign policy record....whether to run from it or on it...
Huckabee starts with a statement of principles....sounds a little out of his element....but recovers and gives specifics: "There were times when the arrogance was reflected in the former defense secretary..."
Thompson: "I don't think our foreign policy has been arrogant. Presidents are not perfect. Policies aren't perfect. But bottom line is, we're in a war against radical Islam...." ... Mentions 9/11.... "We weren't considered to be arrogant when we went into Afghanistan and won there..."
McCain says "I'd also like to give president Bush a little credit. Right after 9/11, every expert in the world said there would be another attack on..." the US... "but there hasn't been."
Giuliani defends and lists the Bush legacy... "it's very very good...." but "mistakes have also been made..:" Proposes to make up for the peace dividend... "we need at least 10 more combat brigades."
McCain says he;s the only one who disagreed "at the time" about Rumsfeld. But Bush should get credit for changing the strategy.
McCain gives props to Giuliani.
Ron Paul says he agreed with the policy that Pres. Bush ran on...
Romney: "Unfortunately Ron, you need a thorough understanding of radical Jihad...:" :"The president is not arrogant, the president is not subject to a bunker mentality and we owe a debt of gratitude for keeping us safe...."
Romney mispronounces Madrassah... "MAD-druh-says" -- he says.
Thompson gives a smart history of pre-emptive war...
Hey - Giuliani wants to talk about Ron Paul.... but that makes sense... he's competing in Paul's tier in New Hampshire, isn't he?
...Ooh, nice Sayyid Qutb reference by Romney... the entire GOP field is trying to show their toughness by ganging up on Ron Paul, who is lonely up there...
Crosstalking...
Huckabee cites Qutb academically....
The Daily Five: All Together Now
1. All the candidates, both parties, on-stage together. Watch for this momentus photo op in the intermission of tonight's ABC News presidential debate double-header.
2. The State, South Carolina's largest newspaper, urges Fred Thompson to drop out and endorse John McCain. Patience, folks...patience...
3. 3000 Democrats showed up to see Barack Obama in Nashua this morning. I know this merits more treatment than a sentence, but, well, I was at a Clinton event 40 miles away. I'll cover Obama tomorrow. BTW: at said event, Bill O'Reilly nearly got into a fight with Obama's entourage. Watch Fox News, which is obsessing over the story, for the gory details.
4. The Real Mitt Romney (TM) sounds a lot more like John McCain and Mike Huckabee then you would think. And I've got to say: Romney just gets into his wheelhouse when he talks about governance and pragmatism and solving big problems.
5. The Culinary Workers Union in Las Vegas plans to endorse next Wednesday. Perhaps the decisive endorsement of the Nevada caucuses. Scratch the perhaps. THE endorsement to get. It's interesting that they're waiting until after New Hampshire...
Poll Alert...
Watch for a CNN/WMUR poll showing Obama and Clinton tied in New Hampshire, with Obama leading among independents and Clinton leading among Democrats.
Romney Leads In The Delegate Count (Corrected)
Don't look now, but Mitt Romney, by winning the Wyoming Republican caucuses today, is leading the GOP delegate race.
Due to an RNC calendar, Romney has six delegates, Duncan Hunter has one, and Fred Thompson has one.
Iowa's GOP caucuses don't appoint national convention delegates, so technically, for a few days, anyway, Romney can brag about being the frontrunner.
Mike Murphy, An Old Hand, Checks Out McCain
It was hard to see him, at first. The crowds at McCain events these days are pretty big.
But there, along the side wall of a VFW post in Hudson, New Hampshire last night was Mike Murphy, By McCain's side at all times in 2000. Murphy later worked for Mitt Romney, helping prepare him for the 2008 presidential race.
Murphy left Romney's world in 2006, decamped to Hollywood, and said he would remain neutral. He is much in demand these days as a talking head, as he knows McCain and Romney fairly intimately.
"John called me up and asked me to come," Murphy told me. "I'm just here as a friend. I'm neutral in the presidential race."
But I did notice a large smile on Murphy's face during the event, and I later saw Murphy disappear into an elevator with John and Cindy McCain at the Nashua Crowne Plaza a little while later.
Mr. Murphy certainly has insights that pertain to McCain's current race.
** An unusual thing is happening at McCain events these days.
When he opens the floor to questions, he inevitably gets two or three that no other presidential candidate would get. The questioners want HIS advice. Last night, a father asked McCain what he should say to his son who was interested in getting a West Point commission. (Recall the moment three weeks ago when a veteran contemplating suicide essentially asked McCain to talk him off the ledge.) CBS News' chief McCain watcher, Dante Higgins, tells me that the frequency of these types of questions has been increasing.
About half the questions were friendly; about half were provocative. McCain prefers the provocative questions. Two night ago, he engaged in a respectful dialogue with an anti-war independent, who, while persuaded, told McCain he had better beat Romney next Tuesday.
It's a common observation, but McCain's New Hampshire events are full of familiar faces. An entourage of surrogates, ranging from ex-Navy buddies to POWs to friends like Rep. Chris Shays travel with the roadshow wherever it goes. Even when the questions are tough, there is no tension in the crowd.
One independent I talked to last night said he was deciding between Barack Obama and John McCain, fully aware that the men would pursue fairly different policies as president. "But they are both inspirational," he said.
Clinton Speaks Truth To Power, Bill O'Reilly, A Fire Marshal, And A Huge Crowd
The surreal moments that preceded Hillary Clinton's town hall here might have been avoided if her campaign anticipated a turnout befitting a candidate on the rise.
500 people RSVPd for the event at the Merrimack High School here.
1000 showed up, 9:30 a.m, on a Saturday.
There was no overflow room and at least 100 folks were barred from the auditorium because a fire marshal said the room wasn't big enough.
Clinton herself was forced to play site advance -- urging, in strong words -- the fire marshal to change his mind.
"I want the fire marshal to see that there are more places for more people to come in," she said. " You come to a lot of trouble to get out this morning. We appreciate the enthusiasm. We've got a couple over here and one back there," she said, pointing to empty chairs.
Later, she asked audience members to raise their hand if they had empty seats next to them.
She then asked her daughter Chelsea to remove a barrier set up by the Secret Service in order to accommodate more people.
"Cheals, just want to take that off. People can just sit down, so people aren't up against the bar there."
The audience erupted in cheers.
"See? I am a problem solver, Clinton said. "I've been telling you that for this whole campaign," she said.
In the commotion, Clinton heard the cry of a toddler.
"I know honey. Sometimes, I feel that way too."
Clinton took her first question from a woman who said that Bill O'Reilly, who stood about 40 feet away from Clinton's left, asked her about Clinton's troop withdrawal plan from Iraq.
"Bill O'Reilly!" Clinton said, gesturing to the talk show host.
The crowd started to jeer, but Clinton raised her hand: "Oh no, no no -- he gets at least some credit for being here."
And she launched into a five minute disquisition on Iraq.
And then health care, which animated Clinton and the audience. Clinton lit into Obama's health care plan using harsher language than I've heard. "It's wrong on its approach, it's wrong on its merits," she said, "and it would cede to Republicans the argument that you can't cover everyone."
I thought Clinton's turn as director played well, but we'll see how several of the eminent
grises in the press row -- Bob Novak, E.J. Dionne, Gwen Ifill -- interpret it.
Papa Bear Is Here
PENACOOK, NH -- Bill O'Reilly and an entourage, including what seems like two bodyguards, is checking out the Clinton events this morning. He's wearing a Fox News fleece, and as I type, is gesturing very crisply to his balding producer.
Some Clintonology
A hoarse, happy, Barack Obama blew the lid off the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s 100 Club fundraiser last night. Two nights in a row, two entirely different speeches, two rapturous responses. Hillary Clinton spoke there too, and while her speech was well received, one of her advisers acknowledged to me that the campaign was not happy with the response of the activists who attended, at least a third of whom are probably firmly committed Clinton supporters. It is rare when a Clinton is booed at an event.
On tense conference calls yesterday, major Clinton donors and prominent Clinton allies took turns questioning top campaign aides and even President Clinton, about the road forward and what some termed their failure to be appropriately prepared by the campaign for a third place finish.
One Clinton donor and two prominent surrogates said they had been led to believe the campaign that by that if Clinton were to lose Iowa, she would have placed a close second to John Edwards, a candidate viewed as eminently beatable by the Clinton operation.
But such is the lot of major Clinton donors. And in truth, despite a healthy measure of kremlinology,the truth is that the campaign does not have a strategy to turn away the challenge Obama has posed.
In Iowa, one Clinton adviser, speaking before the caucuses, said that were Obama able to turn out independents and Democrats in the number projected by the Des Moines Register poll, "he deserves to be the nominee."
That does not that Clinton's advisers have given up home.
The critical period, Clinton advisers believe is, the contest-free 10 days on the calendar between the South Carolina primary on the 26th and the Feb. 5 states. During that period, it is hoped -- and I use the passive tense advisedly -- that the press will subject Mr. Obama to the scrutiny befitting beef imported from England.
Aides to Clinton point out that, in contrast to Iowa and New Hampshire, voters on Feb. 5 will rely heavily on media coverage, rather than on direct contact with candidates. The campaign believes that voters in these states will be desensitized to the more inspirational aspects of Obama's candidacy by then and will, if the scrutiny is there, question his basic fitness to be president.
"It's all tax, no government there. It's not ideal."
January 4, 2008
Romney: "McCain Is Not As Conservative As Mitt Romney"
This web ad is called "Twist":
ANNOUNCER: "Remember? Last time John McCain attacked President Bush's integrity."
JOHN MCCAIN: "His ad twists the truth like Clinton. We're all pretty tired of that."
ANNOUNCER: "Comparing Bush to Clinton? He was wrong then, and he’s wrong about Mitt Romney now.
"The truth? 'McCain is not as conservative as Romney.'
"'He voted against the Bush tax cuts.'
"On immigration, McCain supported this year's amnesty bill.
"Higher taxes, amnesty for illegals.
"That's straight talk for being in Washington too long."
GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY: "I'm Mitt Romney and I approve this message."
Obama Campaign's Facts On Iowa
The Obama campaign is sending around these talkers about his Iowa victory:
* Obama beat Clinton among women 35% to 30%
* Obama beat Edwards among voters in union households 30%-24%
* Obama beat Clinton and Edwards among voters of almost every income level (Obama and Clinton tied among voters who make $15-30,000)
* As many voters age 17-29 as voters 65 and older participated last night -- in previous years senior participation has been 5-times greater than younger voters.
* Obama beat Edwards and Clinton among voters who want change (51%-20%-19%)
* Despite countless attacks and hundreds of thousands of dollars in negative mail, TV, and radio, Obama beat Clinton and Edwards (34%-30%-27%) among voters who say health care is the most important issue
* Obama won among those who said the economy was the most important issue (36%-26%-26%)
* Obama won over Clinton and Edwards (35%-26%-17%) among those who said Iraq was the most important issue
* Won across the ideological spectrum – winning among liberals, moderates and conservatives
* Won among high income and lower income voters among voters with household income below $50,000 (34%-32%-19%) and among those over $50,000 (41%-19%-28%)
* Also won among the 82% of voters who said Pakistan was “very or somewhat important”
McCain Web Ad Blasts Romney
I used to be skeptical about the propulsive effect of campaign web ads, and viewed them as a way for campaigns to drive the press's focus without having to spend the money on a television advertisement. Well, I still think the latter thought is true, but the press here in New Hampshire is hungry for a fight, and we collectively seem to be extra-sensitive to every salvo. Here is McCain's new web ad, called "Leadership."
ANNCR: "Mitt Romney compares himself to John McCain and their public service and says, 'I've actually been leading.'
"Mitt Romney, leading?
"He'd rather call lawyers."
ROMNEY: "You sit down with your attorneys and tell you what you have to do ..."
"Uh, you know, we're gonna let the lawyers sort out ..."
ANNCR: "And bureaucrats."
ROMNEY: "Well, if we want somebody who has a lot of experience in foreign policy, we can simply go to the State Department ..."
ANNCR: "When it comes to leadership, John McCain doesn't have to call anyone."
JOHN MCCAIN: "I'm John McCain and I approve this message."
James Dobson's Non-Endorsement Endorsement
Says the Focus on the Family founder in a statement:
“Sixty percent of the participants in the Iowa caucuses were self-identified evangelicals, and 45 percent of them backed Mike Huckabee. The former governor may not become the Republican nominee, and I have not endorsed him, but what happened there last night was evidence of an energized and highly motivated conservative community. Not bad for a supposed bunch of demoralized, depressed, disillusioned and disengaged Reaganites.”
Dobson seems to reject the view that Huckabee represents a break with Reagan.
The Romney Counter-Attack -- The McCain Counter-Counter Attack
First and last thing to remember: Romney has enough money to stay in and stay relevant as long as he wants.
The message: as campaign aides said last night and this morning: it’s old versus new – the past versus the future. Republican values versus McCain’s values. McCain's had time to change Washington; he has failed.
McCain’s biggest vulnerability is his age; watch the Romney campaign try to subtly exploit that. And if there’s a master at exploiting weaknesses, it’s Romney’s chief strategist, Alex Castellanos.
"I think that's what you've been hearing from the governor, and I think that's what you are going to hear from the governor. I like our chances against John McCain. I think it's pretty clear that we've got tremendous new challenges, a new generation of challenges here that require a new vision and a new leadership, and the fact is that Sen. McCain has, God bless him, he's tried his best, but we haven't seen a lot of change in Washington for the last 20 years. I think, can-do -- Mitt Romney gets things done."
A McCain aide was bemused when I told him what Castellanos had said.
"The negative stuff didn't work in Iowa, and it won't work here."
And the age thing?
"On the age thing, the people of New Hampshire have seen for themselves that he's healthy and vigorous. He has outworked the other candidates."
The Clinton Counter Attack
“Hillary is pumped up,” her campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, said on an internal conference call late last night. “She’s ready to fight. We’re ready to fight.”
Channeling Howard Dean, perhaps intentionally, Solis Doyle said: “We’re going to fight in New York, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, California. This is just the beginning.”
Clinton's plane(s) -- two of them -- she does not not travel with her press corps -- landed here in New Hampshire at about 4 a.m.
Here is Clinton's game plan:
1. Swarm the state with surrogates; she has a deeper network in New Hampshire than any other state.
2. Two rallies a day; lots of retail events; lots of television interviews.
3. Find some way to go negative against Obama. Some Clinton advisers and aides say that the campaign have a storehouse of opposition research -- old and new -- that they'll use against Obama. In Iowa, being directly associated with negative attacks is seen as uncouth and un-Midwestern; in New Hampshire, rude remarks as as welcome as questions and answers.
4. Claim that Clinton never had a shot in Iowa because of the state's historical bias against women (it's only one of two to never have elected a woman as governor or member of Congress); that Edwards had cornered the Democratic vote and that Obama ran against the Democratic party and cornered the Democratic leading independents; that for a New Yorker to receive 25 percent of the vote or her is impressive (although.. I distinctly remember an HRC mailing calling her a Midwesterner).
By the way: Since 1972, four of nine Democratic nominees have finished second or worse in Iowa; but those four all finished first or second in New Hampshire; the calendar was much more drawn out in those cycles.
5. Point to Clinton's strength in New York, California and Florida; point out that Obama is bad in debates and that in contests that don't rely on retail politicking, she has an edge.
6. Run against the idea of John McCain as the Republican nominee; in other words, who's better to face McCain: Clinton or Obama?
7. Women, women, women. Playing the gender card again.
8. Have really, really good debate performances.
With Romney, From Des Moines To Portsmouth
Around midnight, Mitt Romney entered the gangway of a packed Jet Blue A330 to a round of applause from his staff, and he spent the next several minutes shaking hands with his young aides. The stress of the night was visible, not on his face, with had broken into a wide smile, but at his forehead, where a lock of hair uncharacteristically hung down.
Romney then spoke to the plane. “We’re going to Manchester, right?” (No, Portsmouth.)
“Ah, we’ll have a great rally there when we land.” He noticed that reporters were sitting three to a row. “Only three to a row? Come on, we should have five to a row.” That would mean, a reporter said, “more reporters on the plane.”
Flight attendants told all of us to turn off our blackberries, the captain, having been briefed on a special security matter by a senior official at the department of homeland security, promised a quick two hour-15 minute flight, and we were off.
En route, Romney’s aides -- his campaign manager, Beth Myers, his most senior aides, his press staff, his lawyer – they spent the flight huddled together. There are strategic disagreements on the campaign, but these folks like each other – the Romney campaign is a pretty friendly place to work. So the mood was not as somber as it could have been.
The press corps drank (mostly soda and water) and watched CNN. Almost no one slept. At 3:30 am ET, the plane landed on runway 16 at PSM.
Why Portsmouth? The campaign wanted to hold an early morning rally, and the FBO at
Manchester-Boston airport wouldn’t allow them.
The press deplaned, and about five minutes later, the large steel doors of an airplane hanger opened up, and Romney, surrounded by about a dozen photographers, walked onto a small stage.
He was pumped – it’s hard to believe, but he really was.
Romney said he was happy to beat John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson – and, “well, I let one slip by me.”
“This presidential election has underscored …. we want change. And it’s not change in the White House, so much, as we want change in Washington. We face extraordinary challenges and Washington is broken and just isn’t getting the job done. “
No – I didn’t accidentally paste in my notes from an Edwards and Obama rally, as the next sentence makes clear.
Romney: “They’re concerned about illegal immigration and Washington hasn’t fixed that.”
And then a litany of middle class concerns:
“They’re concerned about people not having health insurance.”
“And they’re concerned about jobs in this country are going overseas, particularly to Asia, and Washington hasn’t fixed that.”
“And they’re concerned about schools, that are father behind that the rest of the world, and Washington hasn’t fixed that.”
"Some people say…All we need to do change Washington is to have the same people go there, but change there. … to bring someone in… I’m talking about me,…who can bring the kind of change-do change experience that I’ve had everywhere I’ve been. I’ve changed business. I’ve changed the Olympics. And I’m going to change Washington. We’re going to take it apart and put it back together again, this time smaller, smarter and simpler."
Loud applause from the 100-or so campaign volunteers who shivered for an hour waiting for Romney’s arrival.
The wind chill was about negative 10 degrees, so the airplane hanger door was quickly shut.
And then a moment that may or not be symbolic of something, that may or may not stick in the minds of Romney’s traveling press corps, a moment that, well, almost ruined what had been a fairly exuberant welcome home. Not really a moment – it was more like a good hour.
For some reason, it took the staff of the Pease FBO an hour to off-load baggage from the airplane. There were plenty of baggage carts. Plenty of people. And for a half hour, the bags just sat on the carts as about 60 of us – Romney family, Romney friends, Romney donors, the press corps, Carl Cameron of Fox, Jeff Greenfield of CBS, Glen Johnson of the AP – were trapped into a glass-enclosed lobby.
And the fundamental miscommunication was this: the tarmac staff assumed we’d all go outside and retrieve our own luggage. But the folks who ran the place refused to let us out because the airport has special security procedures. Half the luggage was loaded onto a big press bus. That took, for some reason, 40 minutes. But half of the folks who traveled with Romney – including most of his family – were headed back to Boston. So their luggage needed to be segregated.
Two members of Romney’s advance staff convinced the FBO operators to let them onto the tarmac and start bringing the bags into the building.
As the press corps got progressively annoyed, Romney’s staff grew progressively anxious. No one received special treatment – one Scott Romney – the brother of the candidate – waited as long as we did.
After watching these guys struggle and drag two bags at a time, 100 yards a run , there was some shouting and arguing, and a door was forced, and communication was restored, bags were gotten, and here we are.
The Romney campaign later sent its press corps a note of apology.
But the ghost of Sam Donaldson, who once wrote an entire ABC News piece around a malfunctioning microphone at a Michael Dukakis event, was ever-present.
Campaigns reflect their candidate, and the Romney campaign is known for its efficiency and ease of operation; tonight was a rare exception to that record of service.
REVOLUTION FOR CHANGE BEGINS? ON STRENGTH OF NEW CAUCUS GOERS, YOUNG VOTERS AND INDEPENDENTS.....OBAMA WINS DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES........CLINTON BRACES FOR PRESS BACKLASH.....EDWARDS CAMPAIGN SPINS RESULTS AS REPUDIATION OF STATUS QUO.
** Obama beats Clinton among women and men
** Late deciders throw support to Obama, Edwards
** 41% of Obama's caucus goers were new
** 51% of change voters chose Obama
** Edwards third among union voters
HUCKABEE WINS IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUSES / ROMNEY THOMPSON, MCCAIN BATTLE FOR THIRD / TURNOUT VERY LOW
Romney: "Congratulations to Mike and we'll go on to New Hampshire."
** Evangelicals comprise nearly 55% of the electorate in Iowa; half chose candidate who "shared their values;"
** Romney, Huckabee tied among women; Huck trounces among men
**
CLINTON, EDWARDS TIED FOR SECOND / YOUNG VOTER TURNOUT LARGE
... On Dem side, half are first-timers, according to entrance polls... half say they made up their minds early...Back to that Hiawatha, Iowa precinct: turnout DOUBLED from last cycle, to 333...from 129.
CBS: CLINTON, OBAMA BATTLING FOR
FIRST EDWARDS TRAILING; NO
EDGE TO ROMNEY OR HUCKABEE
FROM ENTRANCE POLLS
AP: SAME AS ABOVE
RICHARDSON SUPPORTERS SAID
BE MOVING IN LOCKSTEP TO OBAMA
WOMEN TURNING OUT IN
HIGHER PROPORTIONS THAN MEN
TURNOUT!!! HIAWATHA IOWA PRECINCT:
Suburb of Cedar Rapids....120 caucused in total in 2004; already, 150 on site, with line stretching around the block..
VOTERS STARTING TO SHOW AT CAUCUS SITES..
....Campaigns will be monitoring identity of early folks to assess supporter pool....
CLINTON TO CAUCUS
Hillary, Bill and Chelsea will attend separate caucuses...last minute GOTV: BIll calls in radio;
PUSH POLL DENIALS
Romney manager Beth Myers decries McCain allegations that they had something to do with "push polls" in New Hampshire...calls them "reckless," "egregious..."
Overheard predicting negative campaign in South Carolina, calls Andrea Mitchell "sweetie,"...says Rudy has "girlfriend" problems...calls Thompson's campaign a "disgrace..."
"EMOTIONAL" MOMENT FOR EDWARDS..
...leaving Cedar Rapids field office today, precinct captain Kristi Steeplton
As he departed the Cedar Rapids field office following brief remarks to staff and volunteers, ...Edwards schedules primetime roadblock interviews...either claiming victory or justifying why he should stay in the race despite a second place finish....
BACK IN NH, SENATE REPUBLICAN LEADER TED GASTAS ENDORSES McCAIN
PLANES TO NEW HAMPSHIRE...
** Romney campaign rents Jet Blue A320 with working TV and satellites...
** Obama plane to land in Portsmouth..
** Clinton plane to land in Manchester...
** Security lines in Des Moines expected to be out the door tomorrow morning...
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE..
. Most campaigns carve out five hours for candidate and family to sleep tomorrow late morning, although Obama schedules noon ET event....
Biden Drops Out
Sen. Joe Biden is the second victim of the Obama tsunami.
Dodd Drops Out
No word on whether he's going to endorse.
Caucus: How Much Has Romney Spent?
We won't know until the end of January, but rival campaigns estimate that he's spent $30M on television ads alone, and he's spending roughly $3M per week.
On the high end, it's conceivable that Romney will have spent about $100 million through New Hampshire. He'd spent about $53M through the third quarter.
On Those Democratic Deals...
1. No campaign has a formal deal with any others.
2. All the campaigns know, by virtue of their canvasses, the identities of thousands of supporters of other candidates.
3. All the campaigns have developed specific arguments to sway specific people away from -- or to -- specific candidates.
4. As many Bill Richardson precinct captains could choose to align with John Edwards's preference group as would align with Obama's.
Caucus Eve Dirty Tricks Strike Romney Supporters
A Romney volunteer writes:
Today I spent all day at the Romney HQ manning the phones calling voters all over Iowa. We ran into voters who told us they had gotten calls from people stating they represented the Romney campaign and when the voter disclosed they planned to vote for Romney, the caller then asked to take a few minutes to outline Romney's policy positions.
The caller would then provide a litany of misleading statements like how Romney planned to raise taxes and why, etc.
Richardson Campaign Denies Deal Rumors
Tom Reynolds, a spokesman for Bill Richardson, denies reports that his precinct captains will urge non-viable Richardson caucusers to choose Sen. Barack Obama second.
Regarding the Richardson/Obama rumor, there is no deal. We will be viable in nearly every precinct in Iowa so this issue is moot. Iowans are independent and will make up their own minds about who to support. Our instructions to our precinct captains are to win delegates. Just like every other campaign is trying to do.
Hillary Clinton's Closing Argument
About three minutes, edited, of what Hillary Clinton's closing argument sounds like.
John Edwards's Closing Argument
About three minutes, edited, of what John Edwards's closing argument sounds like.
Caucus Day: Spin This!
** Hillary Clinton is looking forward. Her campaign has begun to promote rallies and events in New Hampshire. Surrogate visits are being planned for Feb. 5. states. (Even Clinton's campaign manager and national political director will spend time on caucus day briefing reporters in states like Nevada about the campaign). Yesterday, some Clinton allies tried to claw back the conventional wisdom that Clinton has to win Iowa to survive; I do not believe the clawback is going to work, based on the campaign's own trajectory here, based on the fact that they're imported almost a thousand friend of Hill to the state, have spent millions, and have not disputed the notion, internally, that a third place finish in Iowa would be devastating. Perhaps not fatal, but devastating. After all -- she is the national frontrunner. Frontrunners are supposed to win everywhere. On ABC this weekend she said: "When I started here, I was in single digits. I mean, nobody expected me to be doing as well as I'm doing in Iowa." Nobody, meaning, almost everybody, unfortunately. (The campaign can't point us to a poll where she was ever in single digits.)
** Clinton has around 5000 volunteers; for every "hard one" who can't drive themselves to the caucus -- think elderly folks with oxygen tanks or mobility problems -- the campaign has drivers for them. Obama has "several thousand"; Edwards has several thousand; Romney has "hundreds."
** Obama's campaign spend yesterday telephoning and door-knocking all of their "ones," and they claim that their "flake rate" -- the percentage of confirmed attendees who suddenly say they can't go -- was low. Obama is said to be very tired, very pumped, a little on auto-pilot, and confident.
** If John Edwards doesn't finish first, he's going to have a tough time getting the attention of the media, but he is not going to drop out, and he has the capacity as a candidate who continuously surprise everyone. He's strong in New Hampshire -- stronger than he was in 2004 at this point, and has a real staff there who can catch whatever momentum he has. His populism is popular among a certain smaller segment of New Hampshire voters -- working class folks in towns like Berlin and Rochester -- but the winning Democratic candidate has always managed to put together a coalition of working class voters and professionals from cities like Nashua and Merrimack -- something Edwards has not shown an ability to do.
** If there's a three-way tie -- and Hillary Clinton winds up on the lowest of the three rungs -- then watch to see how eagerly the media is to declare the End of the Clinton Era in the Democratic Party, even though, by rights, she deserves to continue.
Caucus Day: Deals?
** There are reports that Bill Richardson and Joe Biden may ask their precinct captains to encourage supporters to vote for Obama if their candidate fails to make viability. So far as I can tell, Biden's team has NOT transmitted those instructions down the line, and no one in Bill Richardson's world will confirm or deny.
As Caucusing Begins...
Keep these two numbers in mind.
150,000 -- if turnout is significantly above that figure for Democrats, then Democrats say a victory for Barack Obama is almost assured. If it's 150,000 to 135,000, Democrats think that Clinton will win. If it's at 135,000 or lower, then Edwards is the man...
80,000 -- High turnout on the Republican side benefits Mike Huckabee; lower turnout benefits Mitt Romney.
Caucus Day: Surprises
Joe Biden could be fourth or tied for third; John McCain could finish third; the latter would be a development worth noting in the coverage today.... in fact, it's been noted and predicted so much, it's almost expected that he'll finish fifth.... McCain has no real organization here, and any and all support is entirely endogenous. McCain could be unbeatable -- his three strongest states, organizationally, are New Hampshire and Michigan and South Carolina, and the Giuliani campaign does not want to run against him.
Caucus: Clinton Revises Turnout Model Up
** Hillary Clinton's team has revised its turnout model. The same senior campaign source who projected a turnout of 140,000 voters is now predicting that 150,000 voters will show, and says that, according to the turnout model the campaign is employing, Clinton will finish a strong first on the strength of turnout from Democrats. Two days ago, Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, told me that the Obama turnout model assumed about 150-155,000 people too. Clearly, the more independents who turn out, the better for Obama. The more Democrats -- the more _new_ Democrats -- the better for Hillary Clinton. An Edwards aide said the campaign predicts that 135-140,000 Dems will caucus.
And yes -- Dems -- they'll be Dems by the beginning of the caucus, because independents and Republicans will be forced to register as Democrats before they can participate.
Some turnout facts:
** 122,193 Democrats turned out in 2004.
** The 2006 primary election turned out 184,000 Democrats.
** Don't automatically assume that high turnout helps Barack Obama or assume that an increase in turnout comes from independents. Democrats, too, could caucus in record numbers, which helps the two candidates who are banking on them: Edwards and Clinton.
** There were approximately 500,000 Dems on the voter file who did not caucus in 2000 or 2004. There are 600,000 independents who tend to have weak vote history, especially in primaries.
** 17,000 to 22,000 independents became Democrats and caucused in 2004, according to estimates.
** About 1,500 Republicans turned out.
January 2, 2008
Caucus Day: A Sign?
** A sign? Barack Obama's rally in Des Moines tonight attracted 2000 people. Hillary Clinton's rally -- same time -- attracted 1000.
Democratic Fundraising Update
** The DNC raised $51 million in 2007, which amounts to an increase from the same period in 2003, when the party raised $42.9M.
Note that the Wall Street Journal estimated that the Democratic presidential candidates raised a combined $223M to the Republicans $152M for the year.
Here's Barack Obama's 2 Minute Commercial
"Tomorrow, we'll come to the end of a ten-month journey. You've heard from all of us, and read our plans; you've been bombarded with mailings and phone calls, and you'll be glad to know this is one of the last times you'll hear me say, 'I'm Barack Obama, and I approve this message.'
"But the question you have to ask yourself when you walk into that caucus tomorrow is this – who can take us in a fundamentally new direction? I'm running to finally solve problems we talk about year after year after year. To end the division, the obscene influence of lobbyists, and the politics that values scoring points over making progress. We can't afford more of that, not this year, not now.
"I've spent my life working for change that's made a real difference in the lives of real people.
"That's why I passed up a job on Wall Street to fight joblessness and poverty on the streets of Chicago when the local steel plant closed.
"That's why I turned down the corporate law firms to work as a civil rights lawyer; to fight for those who had been denied opportunity.
"That's why I fought for tough new ethics laws in Illinois and Washington to cut the power of lobbyists. And I won.
"That's why I brought Democrats and Republicans together to provide health care and tax relief to working families.
"And that's why I opposed this war in Iraq from the start. It wasn't popular, but it was right.
"This country's ready for a leader who will bring us together: that's the only way we're gonna win this election and that's actually how we'll actually fix health care and make college affordable, become energy independent and end this war.
"I'm reminded every day that I am not a perfect man. And I won't be a perfect President. But I can promise you this – I will always tell you where I stand and what I think. I will listen to you when we disagree. I will carry your voices to the White House and I will fight for you everyday I'm there. So I ask you to caucus tomorrow, not just for me, but for your hopes; for your dreams; for the America you believe is possible."
Biden Won't Make Second-Choice Deals
I asked Joe Biden's spokesman, Mark Paustenbach, whether reports that Biden is encouraging his second-choice caucus goers to pick Obama were true.
"We do not have a deal with any other candidate," he said.
"The staff meeting was to coordinate caucus strategy. We have no offers to do a deal and we have not reached out to others."
Clinton Borrows An Obama Line From The Stump
"We are fired up and we are ready to go because we know America is ready for change and the process starts right here in Iowa."
In Davenport, Iowa, those words escaped the barriers of a tired Hillary Clinton's teeth.
Without irony.
That phrase is associated with Barack Obama. Obama borrows it from a woman in South Carolina who helped remind him what was important in life.
It's the signature, in fact, of Obama's close.
Clinton Sneaks In Letterman Appearance
Sometime today, from somewhere in Iowa, somehow -- Sen. Hillary Clinton managed to tape the cold open for David Letterman's return to comedy tonight.
Remember: Letterman signed a deal with the WGA, so HRC isn't crossing a picket-line.
But Mike Huckabee, who is taping Jay Leno's show as I type, has already violated the WGA's request.
Afternoon Update: The Democrats
** Barack Obama called Sec. Condi Rice last night to speak about the post-election chaos in Kenya, CBS's Dean Reynolds reports. He later recorded a call for calm that the Voice of America station in the country will broadcast.
** Barack Obama joins Hillary Clinton in airing a two-minute closing argument on Iowa television stations during the 6pm news tonight.
** During those same newscasts, John Edwards will air a one-minute version of his latest television ad,
** Edwards claimed the endorsement today of 30 "leading" economists as his anti-corporate greed op-ed is published in the Wall Street Journal. Among the economists endorsing Edwards: James K. Galbraith from the University of Texas at Austin; and U Chicago's Deirdre McCloskey.
** Jacqueline Jackson, wife of Rev. Jesse Jackson, endorses HRC and tapes a South Carolina radio ad on her behalf. The Rev. himself is supporting, somewhat tepidly, Barack Obama.
** Bob Novak predicts that Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will win their parties' Iowa caucuses.
An Update From The Republican National Committee
** The committee raised $83M over the year, making it the most successful of the three RNC committees.
** Liz Mair is the RNC's new online communications director.
** And Alex Conant, a veteran of the Bush White House, will be the new press secretary.
Afternoon Update: The Republicans
** Mitt Romney's attempts to dial back expectations aren't too convincing. For a year, his campaign's success has been based on winning performances in Iowa and New Hampshire. They've not deviated from the strategy, even at their peril. The strategy might pay off, but if Romney fares poorly in either state, he may have enough money to last a few more weeks, but he will effectively have ended his campaign.
“I can't possibly predict that I'm gonna take first place in any particular state.”
** Just as improbably, Mike Huckabee called himself the "underdog" today.
** A third place finish in Iowa by John McCain would be a major story, and it might be enough to put the kibosh on Romney's chances in New Hampshire. So Romney needs to win Iowa convincingly in order to repel the McCain momentum in New Hampshire.
**Romney's Iowa co-chair, Doug Gross, admits that if evangelical turnout approaches 50%, it would be very tough for Romney to win.
** Per CBS News's Scott Conroy, a verbatim transcription of Gov. Romney's sarcastic welcome of McCain to Iowa.
.Welcome to Iowa, senator ... I will point out that they're fine and honorable people. I just happen to disagree with them on some issues and with regards to senator McCain. I think he was just wrong to vote against the Bush tax cuts twice. He continues to defend that vote. He continues to believe it was the right thing to vote no on the bush tax cuts, despite the fact that the bush tax cuts helped working families, helped people meet their obligations. It also helped rebuild our economy in a time we'd gone into an economic tailspin. So in my view, those choices, those tax cuts were needed and essential and positive and he disagrees. And then on a second front, immigration, he was the final champion of that last bill that came before the senate that would have said to every illegal alien in this country you get to stay here forever.
McCain unveiled another tough web ad designed to drive the conversation about Romney.
** As Romney, McCain and Huckabee tangled in Iowa, Rudy Giuliani kept the focus on what his campaign calls "the terrorists war on us" and proposed to double the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan.
(above: waiting for Romney)
