I was tempted to call this encounter a draw but I am mindful that there are no zero sum debates in presidential politics.
And twenty minutes of Iraq happened. And so I’ll give Obama the edge. Clinton was forced, for about 20 minutes, to recapitulate her vote on Iraq, over and over again. It was tough for her. She seemed to mire herself in the details of history.
Obama came into the debate moving up in polls across the country. His presence was, for the first 45 minutes or so, commanding. His opening statement was pitch perfect, segueing from praise for his rivals to the heart of his message. He ably made his case that this is a change election and the trajectory of change is steeper with Obama. His late-in-the-debate answer on Iraq was much better than hers.
Around 50 minutes in, the momentum swung towards Clinton. Obama was put on the defensive by Wolf Blitzer, who tried to goad him into calling Hillary Clinton unprincipled. Clinton, ah, found her voice, managing to show sympathy for undocumented workers and simultaneously pointing out how she took the effects of illegal immigration more seriously than Barack Obama. Clinton, in seeking a bipartisan solution, sounded more like Obama than Obama. Clinton’s answer plays well everywhere: among Latinos in California to conservative whites in Oklahoma.
I think Clinton’s goal tonight was to essentially humble herself before the Democratic Party that rebuked her so profoundly in South Carolina. Substance and niceness and graciousness were the order of the day. By her own standards she succeeded. She still doesn’t have a good answer to the dynasty question. I hear it a lot from voters on the trail. “We are all judged on our own merits” is a tautology.
Surprise: the time limits helped both Clinton and Obama. She had the time to turn every question back to her credentials and her projection of a humble, expansive, gracious character… she had the time to showcase her unmatched policy depth. Obama, who often chafes at soundbite answers, was able to speak in paragraphs and parentheticals and not have it count against him.
A few thoughts:
**Clinton mentioned John Edwards thrice, Obama mentioned him twice, but he also mentioned Bill Richardson, so, they’re equal.
** Also: Someone seemed to have planted the idea in Obama’s mind that he ought to start taking on John McCain, which he did, effectively.
** Obama really gives a great answer on the war, talking about the mindset differences between himself and Clinton and stressing the need for a date certain. He’s found a way to create daylight between himself and Clinton on withdrawing from Iraq.
** Watching the debate from the perspective of a Democrat, it’s easy to see why the party is so enthusiastic about its two candidate finalists.
I'll be Twittering tonight's debate, and can follow along right here.
Subjects that I hope Wolf Blitzer will ask about:
(a) Bill Clinton's sketchy Kazakhstan uranium / donor deal...as reported by the New York Times and given a full story by the producers of NBC Nightly News.
(b) Barack Obama's support for legalizing marijuana...or least reports that he once favored that position.
(c) Obama's being labeled the most liberal senator by National Journal
(d) HRC on South Carolina and Ted Kennedy
Going To Hollywood
It's like the Oscars, less the writers, the movies, the pageantry, the actors, the actresses, the directors, John Williams... ok, it's nothing like the Oscars. But the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood is a hell of a place to hold the final primary debate of the cycle.
Security is tight as a tick. Closed-off roads, FBI explosives experts, members of the Secret Service Uniformed Divisions, an LAPD airship, Dozens of armed guards and a platoon of police officers.
Thousands of cheering Obama supporters are packed on the sidewalk between Hollywood Boulevard and the theatre complex. CNN has set up giant screens outside so the fans can watch. Clinton supporters are outnumbered.
National Journal: Obama's The Most Liberal Senator
Contacted on January 30 to respond to Obama's scores in NJ's vote ratings, his campaign said that the liberal ranking belies the public support he has been receiving. "As Senator Obama travels across the country, and as we've seen in the early contests, he's the one candidate who's shown the ability to appeal to Republicans and the ability to appeal to independents," said campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki.
But she also said that it's important to note the differences between Obama and Clinton on key issues. "The Democratic Party needs to nominate someone who shows a clear contrast with where Republicans are, on issues like the war in Iraq and the economy and the influence of lobbyists on Washington," Psaki said. "One of the reasons he's received such strong support is because he's drawn the starkest contrast on those issues."
Asked whether the liberal ranking could be used against Obama in the campaign, Psaki said that voters appreciate that he is up front about his positions on issues, even if those positions don't line up with their own. "Part of the reason he's appealing to some Republicans and independents is, he has that authenticity," she said. "He's very clear from the beginning that we can't do this alone and we need to work across party lines and focus more on uniting than on dividing."
Asked about Clinton's relatively moderate placement in NJ's rankings, one of her campaign advisers responded, "Her voting record as a whole shows she takes a comprehensive, balanced approach toward policy. Senator Clinton looks at the broader picture. She tries to see the challenges from not only the blue-collar worker's face, but also the white-collar worker's, not only Wall Street but also Main Street, and from that tries to put together a policy that's best for America as a whole."
Robert Gibbs, Obama's communications director, said he doesn't put too much significance in the rankings and has several complaints about methodology. One is that Obama was scored negatively -- i.e, his non-liberal ratings did not rise -- for votes he did not participate in. Another, Gibbs said, is that the magazine ascribes any vote on Iraq that somehow opposed the war as "liberal." And he wonders why Obama's proposal to create an independent ethics oversight office was scored as liberal even though cosponsors included Mary Landreiu, a moderate Dem from Louisiana, and Lindsey Graham, that raging..conservative...from South Carolina.
Mitt Romney's Feb. 5 Strategy
Mitt Romney's advisers now have their final blitz mapped out. Confront McCain squarely on his past record. Play up, subtly, the generational differences between the two candidates. Put the fear of God in activists. “We’ll fight for another week and hope the conservatives realize they have to come together or have McCain as their nominee."
The strategy eschews big states and concentrates on smaller states where the delegate selection processes favor conservatives. They include Colorado, a caucus state, West Virginia, Alaska (which is why Romney mentioned McCain's support for ANWR drilling last night), and Oklahoma and Georgia, two states where delegates can be extracted from congressional districts.
The goal is to minimize the delegate gulf between McCain and Romney headed out of Feb 5 and give Romney a pretext to continue to campaign if McCain suddenly falters.
Romney's chief strategist, Alex Gage, writes in a memo obtained by this column that only a small shift among conservatives in many states could swing a whole lot of momentum towards Romney.
As we move towards February 5th, it’s worth taking a close look back at exit polling from the past few primaries. The coalitions that John McCain assembled in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida have been strikingly similar—and are strikingly tenuous. Public polling shows McCain ahead in many states, but we are now in a two-man race and a few points’ movement among conservatives is all that’s needed to tip the scales in favor of Gov. Romney.
In all three states where he was victorious, McCain’s margin of victory rested on moderates, self identified independents, and voters who disapprove of the Bush administration. None of these
groups is a majority of the Republican electorate. In fact, every GOP primary this year has been
at least 55% conservative, 61% Republican, and 50% supportive of the Bush administration—
explaining why McCain has failed to win more than 36% of the vote in any of them.
The McCain formula for success worked in a divided field when conservatives was fractured, but
even a small coalescence of conservatives around Gov. Romney would reveal his
support as a coalition too small to win the nomination of the Republican party.
Conservatives, self-identified Republicans, and voters who approve of President Bush are likely to be majorities of the electorate in all of the February 5th states. It is therefore easy to see how
we defeat McCain in a two-main race by focusing on traditional Republican primary voters.
We still have an uphill battle in front of us—the mainstream media is ready to anoint John McCain and he will have advantages in many states from running for president for the past eight years— but Gov. Romney has a clear path to victory on February 5th and beyond.
Other Campaign Finance Nuggets
** Barack Obama raised $32 million in January... and managed to find 170,000 new donors. That's a jaw dropping figure. The silence from the Clinton campaign suggests that they haven't raised that much, or from nearly that many people. More evidence that Obama has cracked the movement-building code.
** Rudy Giuliani ended 2007 with a little more than $11 on hand -- not as dire as one would have assumed.
The Little Campaign That Could
One of the more amazing things I've witnessed this cycle is how John McCain was able to run his campaign on the fumes of fumes, on only earned and free media, and still manage to find himself the unambiguous frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
McCain adviser Charlie Black credits campaign manager Rick Davis, who laid down an order: no matter how much money came in, marginally less than out was coming out. A number of key advisers, including McCain wordsmith/alter ego Mark Salter, worked without salaries for months. Even as their political fortunes improved, the campaign didn't go on a hiring binge.
According to the FEC, even with McCain's loan (collateralized on the campaign, and not on money from federal matching funds), he ended the year with only $3M on hand.
That money was gone by New Hampshire.
Since then, he's raised and spent about $9M, including more than 1 million over the past week off the internet.
Though fundraising commitments are soaring, the McCain campaign wears their pecuniary problems as a badge of honor: they found a way to secure the Republican nomination on the cheap without taking money from the government.
Obama Mailer Hits Clinton On War Vote
An oldie but goodie. In Connecticut, Democrats are receiving this direct mail piece from Barack Obama's presidential campaign. (The poor quality of this copy can be blamed on a fax machine).
Denial (December 31, 2007): Duncan Hunter has a chance.
Anger (after Iowa): If Huckabee gets the nomination, I'll just stay home. The GOP is doomed.
Bargaining (after South Carolina): Please Fred, stay in the race till Super Tuesday.
Depression (after Florida): This is the field we have left to choose from? Why can't we have a conservative choice?
Acceptance (today): Next Tuesday, I'll hold my nose and vote for John McCain. He's better than Hillary.
Schwarzenneger's Popularity
According to a private survey conducted for Arnold Schwarzenneger's political advisers, the governor has an 81% approval rating among Republicans in California -- evidence that his endorsement of Sen. John McCain today will help with the right crowd.
HRC White House Schedules Turned Over For Review
10,000 Clinton administration documents from 24 months of FOIA requests are due to be turned over to representatives for former President Clinton today.
Currently about one half of one percent of the 78 million archived documents are available – about 300,000 of out of 78,000,000.
The documents available today are said to include Hillary Clinton’s daily schedules in the White House.
A Clinton aide said last night that the records have yet to be turned over. “When the records arrive, they'll be reviewed,” the aide said. The statute allows for a 30 day inspection period, but that can be extended if the reviewer needs more time.
Clinton's aides insist that Clinton has given the least restrictive instructions to the National Archive of any president during the modern period.
Anti-McCain Ads On Fox News
David Bossie's Citizens United is running this ad on Fox News .....
"There hasn't been an ad that compelling since the Juice-o-matic 9000 advertising on Channel 382," said Steve Schmidt, a McCain adviser.
Fallows On The State Of The Union
Believe it or not, we at the Atlantic are not required to plug James Fallows' annual State of the Union annotation. There's a little peer pressure, yes -- but mostly, all of us Atlantic Voices decided to link to it because it's enlightening and entertaining.
McCain Bus Passes Romney Bus On The 405...
According to eyewitnesses, the Straight Talk Express sped past Mitt Romney's campaign cavalcade on the 405 freeway tonight....
Just saying.
Both Romney and McCain entourages are staying at the Beverly Hilton, although Romney and family are sleeping in a Marriott property in Simi Valley.
January 30, 2008
The Debate: First Reactions
First reactions are almost always off, but we react, then we write. So here goes:
Romney ceded the debate to McCain at the beginning when he acknowledged that McCain’s record was that of a mainstream conservative, albeit with some caveats. Astonishing – the only way Romney will win on Feb 5 is if a groundswell of grassroots conservative opposition to McCain. Romney pointed out some apostasies, but he did not make a sustained argument that McCain was not sufficiently conservative.
There’s no question that Romney got in his talking points, but early on he did not extend them with energy or zest; he seemed resigned and somber; he matched McCain’s tone, rather than leading McCain into the wilderness of anger or confrontation. Romney never pressed McCain on McCain’s dodges, like on the Bush tax cuts. There was no follow through…nothing to cue the voters that they had just seen something important.
McCain seems to have spent virtually all his debate prep time on the economy. For the first time in a debate – and during the last, most important debate – he matched Romney on breadth of knowledge and exceeded him at projecting sympathy. He knew the buzz words , he knew the status of legislation, he talked ably about interplay between the foreign and domestic economies.
Yes, Romney got in a few zingers – the point about McCain and dirty tricks being one of them. But McCain’s rebuttal was effective, and in any event, McCain knows this subject like the back of his hand, and he’s able to argue circles around Romney, who tried to argue from a point of personal procedures. Also: the issue is so complex that the “right” answer wasn’t evident – certainly not to the average viewer.
Off to the spin room....
Debate Wire
09:28: Is Romney capable of being Commander in Chief? McCain cites Romney's business experience...: "He bought and he sold and sometimes people lost their jobs and that's the nature of that business...but we're at the time in our history where you can't afford any on-the-job training..."
09:28: Romney gives a strong answer that weaves together his experience with his resume...notes that ABe Lincoln wasn't a military leader...
09:26: Romney actually said he was commander-in-chief of National Guard... true, but...he's sitting next to John Sidney McCain!
09:25: Romney says he'd the better leader on the economy.,..as people "over the centuries" have considered who'd lead the country, "they look to leaders." "You've got to have something who's actually done some work in the private economy and understand how it works..."
09:24: McCain is asked about the economy but instead talks about wars.... talks about his history with Reagan... "as we fought these wars together with unshakable courage and principles."
09:23: McCain has his Somber Reagan Voice down pat.
09:23: Press room starts to talk among themselves when Romney is speaking.
09:22: Romney goes all wonky when talking about Putin; Huck's simpler answer was stronger.
09:21: You can imagine McCain's brain trust sitting behind a VP table grading Huckabee's every answer.
09:20 When Huck looks at Pres. Putin, what does he see? "I don't know if I can read people's souls...their eyes can lie, their actions don't..." cites Ronald Reagan's "peace through strength: line.
Debate Wire
09:16: Ron Paul got some applause for talking about "these silly arguments."
09:15: When McCain calls Romney "my friend," he really means: "You little @#*(@#*(."
09:14: Citing the media to defend a point in a Republican debate won't work.
09:13: W. Mitt Obama: this is a tactic of old-Washington. Romney: "The Washington Post gave you three Pinocchio's for it.... "
09:12 Romney's again arguing a process point: "He's never raised issue with me."
09:11: Romney's on the defensive...looks angry and upset...
09:10: Romney's arguing a point of personal procedure... McCain knows so much about Iraq that it;'s hard for Romney to respond substantively.
09:08: A very angry Mitt Romney: "How is it that you're an expert on my position?" McCain: "I am expert on this."
09:07: McCain: "Of course he wanted a timetable." McCain notes that Romney in Dec of '06 said he wouldn't weigh in on the surge because he was a governor.
09:06: Applause from audience when Romney says Reagan would have found the dirty tricks reprehensible.
09:05: Even if McCain is stretching to make a point, if we're talking about Iraq, he makes the points better than anyone else.
09:04: Romney: "Absolutely, unequivocally, absolutely no. I have never, ever supported a specific timetable for exit from Iraq." Points out that CNN's own analyst who said it was a lie.
08:52: Challenged with Reagan's own words about Sandra Day O'Connor, Mike Huckabee said;l "I'm not going to come to the Reagan library and say anything about Ronald Reagan's decisions. I'm not that stupid."
Paul says he wouldn't have appointed her. Sen. McCain: "I'm proud of Sandra Day O'Connor..." Romney: "I like justices that follow the constitution rather than make laws from the bench. I would have rather had justices of that nature."
08:48: Janet Hook, who has the voice of Dr. Laura (a compliment, I assure you), asks McCain whether if, his original proposal came to the floor, he'd vote for it? "I would not." Says it wouldn't come to the floor. McCain: "Everyone knows we're in agreement. The American people want the border secure first."
Debate Wire
08:47: Romney: "no special pathway."
08:46: Vande...challenges Romney on how he's deport immigrants.
08:45: Immigration comes up. In earlier debates, it came up earlier.
08:43: Romney: "The Bush revolution...suggested that we needed a tax cut... RR would have said sign in...and Sen. McCain was one of two who did not."
08:42: "I'm proud of my record as a footsoldier in the Reagan revolution."
08:41: McCain is challenged on his different explanation for opposing the Bush tax cuts... "Actually, I think lower and middle and income deserve more help."
08:40 -- It's so windy up here on Reagan Hill. Mount Reagan. At the library. The spin room -- a big tent, basically -- is ripping apart. Scary.
08:38 -- CNN wants to try to challenge McCain on his economic knowledge... McCain must have done some boning up...he sounds very good....
08:37, So far, McCain has kept Romney on the defensive...and Romney hasn't managed to land too many punches... might be a function of the format. Update: actually, he did correct McCain on two factual points.
08:35: Huckabee cutely admits he was pandering a little when he was talking about I-95... says there might be a Western highway we oughta expand...
08:33: Sorry, I ignored Ron Paul.
08:29 -- Romney agrees, too. Says McCain's cap-n-trade plan is tantamount to tax.
08:28 -- McCain has like four minutes to give his global warming speech. CNN's producers not in Anderson's ear?
08:25: Asked about Arnold's emissions proposal (wants CA to be able to implement much tougher caps) -- does he side with governor or with the Bush Administration: "At some physical danger, I have to agree with the Governor. I'm a federalist. I believe the states should decide to an enormous degree what happens within those states, including off their coasts."
08:23: Romney asked about fines for not purchasing health care in Massachusetts. He gives his fairly compelling capsule history of his health care effort in Mass.
08:22: VandeHIGH .. HIGH.
08:21: Huckabee, asked about Rush: "I wish Rush loved me as much I loved Rush. It doesn't mean he's inerrant or infoulable."
Debate Wire
08:15: Romney asked about McCain following "liberal Democratic" course... doesn't he have a "mainstream conservative record?" -- Romney admits McCain is a good Republican. A number of instances, though: "opposed to drilling in ANWR -- (YAY -- ALASKA CAUCUSES) - co-author of McCain Feingold.. :"which took a whack at the first amendment and hurt our party..." -- author or amnesty bills, etc.
08:16: Romney: "If you get endorsed by the New York Times, then you're probably not a conservative." McCain points out that both Mass papers including the Herald (which, to be fair, HATED Romney), endorsed McCain.... McCain goes into litany about Romney's Mass's. record....
08:18: Romney wants to help McCain "will the facts." Corrects McCain about his misstatement about his LG. (McCain said Romney's LT G. endorsed McCain...) -- Romney: "During my term in office, we added jobs..." Romney acknowledges raising fees... but not as much as McCain had said.
08:20: Debating Massachusetts... kind of like we were doing one year ago. What happened to 2007?
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is likely to endorse Sen. John McCain before the California primary -- perhaps as early as tomorrow, Republican sources with direct knowledge of the endorsement said.
On CNN today, Schwarzenegger said he has nothing to announce "today" but would not speculate about tomorrow.
McCain and Schwarzenegger have spoken personally within the past few days, and aides are working out a time and location for the governor to give his benediction. The men share a set of issues, including climate change, and a pragmatism that often finds them at odds with their party.
McCain's schedule includes an unspecified Los Angeles political event on Wednesday.
Aides to McCain declined to comment, and an aide and adviser to Schwarzenegger did not respond to requests seeking comment.
The Endorsement
SIMI VALLEY -- They call each other "heroes." They believe that the pre-eminent challenge of our time is the fight against radical Islamic Jihad. They're both unorthodox Republicans; they both privately disdain Romney; they both are great friends. Their worldviews are sympatico. Had the leaden shoe of defeat been secured to John McCain's foot by Florida voters, it's likely that he would have endorsed Rudy Giuliani.
"When you run for president, you spend a lot of time thinking about the qualities you want in a chief executive." For Giuliani, those qualities are "someone who can be trusted in a time of crisis, someone with a clear vision of the challenges facing our nation."
"John McCain is the most qualified candidate to be the next commander in chief," Giuliani said. "He is an American hero. He is a man of honor and integrity. He's shown character throughout his life."
Repeatedly, Giuliani stressed the mutual detente that existed between he and McCain -- McCain ran no attack ads against him, and vice-versa. This was as close to a shot against Mitt Romney as Giuliani made. (There had been a rumor circulating that he would, in addition to dropping out and endorsing McCain, make a case against Mitt Romney.)
Giuliani looked somber but relieved, as if a burden had been lifted. His staff and his press corps describe him as being in good spirits and eager to return to private life.
Live From The Reagan Library
SIMI VALLEY -- In a few moments, Rudy Giuliani will endorse John McCain in.. well, the spin room, but don't read too much into that.
Talk to a Romney adviser this morning and they're likely to acknowledge the unprecedented luck that their candidate will need to block McCain's path to the nomination.
Here in Los Angeles, a radio listener flipping back and forth between the city’s two top AM radio stations yesterday morning found two of the country’s largest conservative megaphones, Rush Limbaugh and Michael Reagan, all but urging their listeners to revolt against McCain. The litany of their complaints begins with his long-time advocacy of campaign finance reform, seen by some conservatives as both an affront to free speech and the source of their party’s current financial deficits, to immigration, to judges, to his unwillingness to court conservatives like Limbaugh.
This morning, Rush tried to maintain his resolve, giving what he called a "non-concession speech:
Here is the bottom line, ladies and gentlemen. I think this is it. There was a lot of anxiety among a lot of conservatives about Senator McCain. It's simply indisputable. But there was no figure in our roster of candidates who rose up to challenge him or galvanize conservative support. All the candidates on our side, for various reasons, are uninspiring or worse -- and so, just as I predicted, the base has fractured. Some going here, some going there. Senator McCain's been able to cobble together enough votes to win in a few states. Fine. He deserves credit for that. But to pretend that Senator McCain is the choice of conservatives when exit poll data from every primary state show just the opposite... He is not the choice of conservatives, as opposed to the choice of the Republican establishment -- and that distinction is key.
We'll see.
A McCain adviser said that "Once Rush recognizes that the race will be between John and Hillary Clinton, he'll come around."
There hasn't been any outreach...yet.. the first goal McCain has to unify the party, and he recognizes that Feb. 5 is only the first step.
Super Tuesday Projection: 1/30
Based on polling and analysis and interviews with campaign officials.....
Hillary Clinton has an edge in New York, New Jersey, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Obama has an edge in Idaho, Minnesota, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and Illinois.
The following states lean to Clinton right now: California, Connecticut
The following entities lean Obama right now: Colorado, Democrats Abroad
True tossups: Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico, Utah, American Samoa, Alaska, Massachusetts
For Republicans, I'd say John McCain has a distinct edge in California, New York, New Jersey, Alabama, Massachusetts, Arizona, Connecticut and Tennessee.
Mitt Romney has an edge in Utah, Maine, Montana, Alaska, West Virginia.
Mike Huckabee used to be the governor of Arkansas.
And Missouri is a toss.
Edwards Drops Out
John Edwards will end his presidential bid today in the city that symbolizes the animating impulse behind his message, New Orleans.
His staff was notified of the decision early this morning. As of last night, spokesfolks denied "rumors."
Edwards will be joined on stage by Elizabeth Edwards and his three children.
After the speech, he and his staff will work together on a New Orleans Habitat for Humanity project.
He does not plan to endorse any presidential candidate in the near future, advisers said.
Advisers say he worries that Obama isn't ready to be president and that Hillary Clinton represents too much the old way of doing business... and both concerns weigh heavily.
By dropping out in NOLA, he hopes to force his rivals to take up the mantle of anti-poverty efforts that he began his race by talking about.
Clinton Certainly Felt Snubbed
Check out this Q and A from last night:
WALLACE: Finally, Senator Clinton, there was an incident last night at the State of the Union address that is getting a bit of attention. When you get into the hall – we’ll put the picture up -- you reached out -- Senator Kennedy and Senator Obama were standing side by side. Senator Kennedy shook your hand, and Senator Obama said he was looking to talk to somebody else. Some people are saying that he snubbed to you. Do you feel like you were snubbed you last night?
SEN. CLINTON: Well, Chris, I reached out my hand in friendship and unity and my hand is still reaching out. And I look forward to shaking his hand when I see him at the debate in California. But what is important here is that any differences between us as Democrats pale in comparison to the differences between us and the Republicans, and I think we will have a unified Democratic Party... We will come together, not only as a party, but as a country in this election year, and I am confident that we are going to present a very strong case to the American people as to why Democrats should once again be in the White House
Tweak...Obama buys in New York media market
(No doubt for New Jersey, but also a tweak to HRC in the city...)
The Media Covers "The Snub"
A Penn Memo On Florida
The big point in this is fundamentally correct: 1.5 million Florida Democrats cast ballots yesterday. Delegates -- no, but either they mean something or nothing.. and if they mean something, it means that, at the very least, there is a reason to think that Feb. 5 will be.. as competitive as we think it will be.
To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Re: A Significant Victory in Florida
Hillary Clinton won a significant victory today in the Florida primary with biggest turnout in Florida Democratic primary history. She will end up with more votes than John McCain, the winner of the Republican primary. And Floridians cast more votes than were cast in Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, and New Hampshire combined.
A large, broad, and diverse group of voters came out and voted for Hillary in Florida. She won women, men, and just about every age category. She won nearly 6 in 10 Latinos and nearly 3 in 10 African American voters.
The vote turned out to be far more than symbolic. Well over 1.5 million Democrats cast their ballots, more than twice the number of voters who came out to vote in the 2004 primary.
Most of the voters in Florida fully expect that their votes will not be wasted again -- they too have a voice at the convention, and Hillary has asked her delegates to support their being seated.
This result comes after Senator Obama ran TV commercials that reached Florida homes and after the enormous publicity he received for South Carolina and for the Ted Kennedy endorsement. The exit polls show widespread recognition of the endorsement -- but even so among those who decided on Election Day, a plurality of those chose Hillary.
But any momentum seemed to run out today -- among those who decided on Election Day, a plurality of those chose Hillary.
January 29, 2008
Obama Campaign Dismisses HRC's Florida "Victory"
“When Senator Clinton was campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, she said that states like Michigan and Florida that won’t award delegates, ‘don’t count for anything.’ Now that Senator Clinton has lost badly in South Carolina, she’s trying to assign meaning to a contest that awards zero delegates and where no campaigning has occurred. Senator Clinton’s own campaign has repeatedly said that this is a ‘contest for delegates’, and tonight, Florida awarded zero. Senator Obama is disappointed that Florida will have no role in selecting delegates for the Democratic nominee, but looks forward to competing and winning in Florida during the general election,” said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.
McCain Wins
Romney starts speech before Giuliani ends...
Giuliani prepares to end campaign and endorse McCain: discussions continuing among campaign officials about when and where... Giuliani will travel to California tomorrow...
McCain: "Thank you for bringing a former Florida resident across the finish line first....in, as I have been repeatedly reminded of lately, an all-Republican primary!"
"Thank you Rudy for all you have added to this race..."
"In one week, we have as close to a national primary as we've ever had in this country. I intend to win it and be the nominee of our party!"
"I enlisted in as a foot soldier in the revolution that he began. I am as proud today to be a conservative Republican as I was then."
Florida Primary Wire
McCain Wins
Romney starts speech before Giuliani ends...
Romney: "We're not going to change Washington by sending the same people back just to sit in different chairs."
Romney: "American needs a president in the White House who has actually had a job in the real economy."
At end of speech: "All you guys are family. Don't expect to be part of the inheritance. I'm not sure there's going to be much left after this."
Florida Primary Wire
McCain Wins
Tears up.... Rudy: "Finally, we need to re-establish very very clear, the Republican Party, Lincoln, Reagan, and the party of Bush, the Republican Party is a party that is and has been from the beginning, when we are on our game, when we're being our contributor, we are the party of freedom, we are the party of the people. And we're a big party. And we're getting bigger. I'm even this party. This is a big party."
Rudy: "I don't back down from a principled fight....elections are about a lot more than just candidates...elections are about fighting for a cause larger than ourselves..."
Rudy: "I want to congratulate each of my opponents on a hard fought campaign here in Florida...."
Rudy: "Win or lose, our work is not done. Leaders dream of a better future and they help to bring it into reality."
Rudy: "I'm proud that we chose to stay positive and run a campaign of ideas. We ran a campaign that was uplifting."
Rudy: "The ideas of our campaign...clearly identify the great challenges of our time...first, America needs to stay on offense to win the terrorist's war on us....the best way to achieve peace is through overwhelming strength."
Tears up.... Rudy: "Finally, we need to re-establish very very clear, the Republican Party, Lincoln, Reagan, and the party of Bush, the Republican Party is a party that is and has been from the beginning, when we are on our game, when we're being our contributor, we are the party of freedom, we are the party of the people. And we're a big party. And we're getting bigger. I'm even this party. This is a big party."
Dade Co reporting way earlier than usual...... Nothing in from Panhandle. Romney overperformed in Duval Co (Jacksonville)... 1-4 corridor is pretty even now...
Counties reporting in slowly: Broward, part of Palm Beach counties....Tampa area counties....
....Romney leading among Protestants...McCain winning about Catholics....McCain wins 50% of Cuban-Americans......
Clinton claims.. "Victory" -- 'This has been a record turnout because Floridians wanted their voices to be heard....I am thrilled to have this vote of confidence that you have given my today...."
Flordia Primary Wire
32% in.. McCain 34%, Romney 33%:, Rudy 15%, 10,000 vote margin....
McCain v. Romney
Dade Co reporting way earlier than usual...... Nothing in from Panhandle. Romney overperformed in Duval Co (Jacksonville)... 1-4 corridor is pretty even now...
CBS News exit polls: Crist's endorsement not seen as helping McCain....Hispanics make up 13$ of voters...McCain wins them 2 to 1 over Giuliani; Romney third.....six in ten primary voters are conservative...3 in ten are moderates...conservatives chose Romney by 40% to 27%.....McCain wins 41 to 19 among moderates...issues voters chose Romney by 36% to 24%...leadership quality voters chose McCain... McCain is seem as the most electable...McCain and Romney get 28% of white evangelicals; Romney gets 34%... But are exits screwy? 49% of voters say economy was top issue, but McCain wins plurality of them?
...
Economy is biggest issue again...
Waiting on Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade counties.....
Pandhandle voting could benefit McCain (veterans) or Romney (conservatives)
Heavy turnout among Hispanics...relatively...
Remember...early voting / asbentees already counted....should be in early..
Panhandle polls still open...
Fox News exit polls: Seniors 40 to 31, McCain.....TIED among veterans..50 to 26 McCain among Hispanics....Immigration as issue: Romney wins...Economy as issue, McCain wins...
...
HRC leading "Dems"; Obama campaign issues tongue in cheek statement: "Based on exit polling data our campaign is prepared to call the delegate count at 7 pm eastern." More: "Obama and Clinton tie for delegates in Florida. 0 for Obama, 0 for Clinton."
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McCain Robocall, Seen as Gay-Baiting, Is Pulled
A McCain campaign spokesperson says that a robocall accusing Gov. Mitt Romney of once favoring "special rights" for gay people is no longer in the campaign's rotation.
Snub This!
It acquired a name sometime between 6am and 12pm as I was flying across the country. What had begun with a photo appearing to show Barack Obama staring icily at an open-faced Hillary Clinton, and a second, turned away as she greeted Sen. Ted Kennedy, has turned into something called "The Snub."
In the age of visual information, brush asides become thinly sliced character studies. Hence, if you're an Obama supporter, he was politely responding to a question from Claire McCaskill and did not know that Sen. Clinton was eager to shake his hand. If you're an opponent, you saw the "real Obama" -- not the Jesus his staff portrays him to be, but an arrogant upstart for whom "New Politics" means the Politics of Me.
Let's stipulate that Obama, being familiar enough to find his way to Capitol Hill, presumably expected to encounter his presidential rival. Let us also presume that, despite his protestations, images and impressions often matter more than words, and so he might have been a bit more sensitive to his surroundings. But let us concede that to expect a presidential candidate to know when to turn and when to stay focused is appropriate only when Roger Goodman is in his ear. (And Roger Goodman was in New York City.)
Aside from that, everyone will see in The Snub what they like. The media, driven by a bias toward conflict, has already concluded what the Snub was, but they're pretending to ask the question anyway. To be fair, the vast majority of the press's first impressions were that it was a snub.
To reporters on his press plane, Obama said he really just didn't see Sen. Clinton intending to say hello to him and meant no disrespect. Earlier today, his chief strategist said that Obama had known Clinton was there but did not not want to get in the way of an awkward moment between Sen. Kennedy and Sen. Clinton.
Delegate Allocation: The California Example.
Over the next few days, I'm going to write quite a bit about the complexity facing Democratic campaign targeters over the next several days. It's akin to running 22 simultaneous presidential campaigns in 22 different counties where the winner is based not on the popular vote in the country but on the delegates selected by congressional districts.
So let's start by taking one such "country," like, say, California.
In some ways, it makes sense to concentrate resources in some areas and skip others.
Why?
Because some districts send an odd number of delegates to the national convention, campaigning there is more efficient than in districts allocating an even number of delegates.
Why?
Because even without campaigning or concentrated television ads, the split in most of the even districts is not likely to allocate more delegates to the winner than to the second place finisher, especially if the number of total delegates allocated is 4.
Each congressional district in California has between 3 and 7 delegates to give; a total of 241 pledged delegates. The popular vote statewide determines the allocation of an additional 81 delegates, and 48 more are PLEOs -- but forget about the PLEOs for now.
So it makes sense for each candidate to maximize turnout in the larger odd-delegate congressional districts, right?
Not necessarily.
In states like New York, where Hillary Clinton will almost certainly win, and Illinois, almost certainly an Obama state, it makes more sense for the candidates to target the smaller-delegate-allocating congressional districts because they can increase turnout to boost their statewide totals AND win extra delegates at the same time.
It's easier, in other words, to extract an additional delegate by winning a smaller, odd-delegate congressional district than by trying to winner a larger, odd-delegate congressional district.
A further layer of complication is demographic.
Even though some advisers concede that Hillary Clinton will probably win California, Barack Obama's campaign will heavily target a number of large-and-small, odd-and-even congressional districts in the Bay Area (think Oakland, Berkeley, Marin County) because Democrats there tend to be more educated and younger -- and black -- exactly the demographic profile Obama has used to success in earlier states. But wait -- if you're in charge of Obama's California spending, do you spent, say, $100,000 extra in the 6th Congressional District, which comprises Marin County and Somona County north of San Fransisco? It allocates an even number of delegates -- six. Unless there's a landslide, both Obama and Clinton will get 3, each.
Why not spend that money trying to beat Clinton in the 7th congressional district across the bay -- Solano County and parts of Contra Costa counties, where the congressman, George Miller, has already endorsed Obama? CD 7 allocated 5 delegates, an an extra effort there might give Obama one extra delegate.
A Reminder About GOP Absentees
As of yesterday, 301,024 Republicans had turned in absentee ballots in Florida and another 288, 025 had voted early.
Rudy Giuliani's campaign tried to collect absentees early -- before voting started. They were moderately successful, according to the campaign's tracking. Since Giuliani's core pool of supporters is said to overlap with McCain's, McCain is said to be at a disadvantage here.
Mitt Romney's campaign tried to collect absentees late. Initially, they hoped that Romney victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would boost their efforts. Whoops. BUT -- victories in Michigan and Nevada and Wyoming and Romney's enduring viability probably helped their collection.
Does A McCain Radio Ad Gaybait?
"Mitt Romney thinks he can fool us. He supported abortion on demand, even allowed a law mandating taxpayer-funding for abortion. He says he changed his mind, but he still hasn’t changed the law. He told gay organizers in Massachusetts he would be a stronger advocate for special rights than even Ted Kennedy. Now, it’s something different.
That's a McCain robo-call, confirmed by the campaign. Is this gay-baiting? Or making the point that Romney flip-flops on social issues?
Raising the specter of scary homosexuals and their "special rights" is a time-honored last-minute trick, and what qualifies for the label of 'gay-baiting -- a harsh label, to be sure -- is often in the eye of the beholder.
But about John McCain, a social conservative who opposes gay marriage, we've never had the occasion to ask the question before in the context of his presidential campaign.
Incidentally: it's not clear whether McCain ever personally approved the script.
Tonight: Clinton Parties In Florida
Note: polls close in Florida at 7...and 8. This event begins at 7.
Romney's Major Florida Advantage
Mitt Romney's had an 8 to 1 television ad advantage in Florida... part of the reason why he's made the competitive. Heck, most of the reason he's made the race competitive has been his ads.
According to Neilsen, he's run 4,475 ads compared to John McCain's 470 through 1/22.
McCain did not run a single ad until January; Romney ran more ads in September than McCain has run to date.
January 28, 2008
Sebelius To Appear With Obama Tomorrow
Word is that Gov. Kathleen Sebelius will endorse and campaign with Barack Obama tomorrow in Kansas.
Silence, For Now, From Al Gore
With Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama, the list of star-aligning endorsements shrinks to about two: former Sen. John Edwards, if he decides to drop out, and, of course, former Vice President Al Gore.
At this point, he has not told any of his political advisers and friends if he is considering an endorsement. During the past year, he has spoken privately with all three leading Democrats.
An adviser said that Mr. Gore had long ago decided to lay low once the Democratic delegate selection contests began so as not to interfere in the race.
Last night, a close adviser said "nothing has changed" with regard to Mr. Gore's decision to keep mum about an endorsement.
Whoa. The New York State chapter of the National Organization for Women attacked Ted Kennedy for his endorsement today with some real heat.. The Times Union reported it first (writing, "'Scathing' feels inadequate here."), and I confirmed its authenticity with the president of the organization, Marcia Pappas.
I started to pick out the most eyebrow-raising passages but, that proved kind of hard, so here's the whole thing:
“Women have just experienced the ultimate betrayal. Senator Kennedy’s endorsement of Hillary Clinton’s opponent in the Democratic presidential primary campaign has really hit women hard. Women have forgiven Kennedy, stuck up for him, stood by him, hushed the fact that he was late in his support of Title IX, the ERA, the Family Leave and Medical Act to name a few. Women have buried their anger that his support for the compromises in No Child Left Behind and the Medicare bogus drug benefit brought us the passage of these flawed bills. We have thanked him for his ardent support of many civil rights bills, BUT women are always waiting in the wings.
“And now the greatest betrayal! We are repaid with his abandonment! He’s picked the new guy over us. He’s joined the list of progressive white men who can’t or won’t handle the prospect of a woman president who is Hillary Clinton (they will of course say they support a woman president, just not “this” one).
:
Plouffe: Florida's A Non-Event
In a memo to reporters, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe accuses the Clinton campaign of seeking to divert the attention of the press by waving "shiny bubbles" in front of the .... shiny bubbles...oooh..... bubbles.... sorry... to "divert" focus from Obama to "non-events like Florida."
From Barack Obama's perspective, today's not only not the worst day that Antoin "Tony" Rezko could be arrested, it was the best of all possible days.
If this had happened tomorrow, the networks would have devoted a full story to it.
Today, it merits a VO -- a voice over, at best.
A Time Machine In Florida
SANFORD -- Step into the time machine, and we;re back in 2007, when Mitt Romney and John McCain are sparring over who can unify conservatives and who's a flip-flopper. Rudy Giuliani? A before-thought to the degree that today, he's an after-thought.
There was no comity left from which the final day of campaigning could further degenerate, and the charges, prosecuted today by both candidates at Sanford International Airport, were flying as fast and loose as a Lear Jet.
Romney called McCain "desperate" and accused him of making things up. He called him a "liberal" for working on an immigration compromise with a liberal Democrat like Joe Lieberman.
McCain expanded his attack on Romney's record in Massachusetts. "One thing I think we should really give Governor Romney credit for -- he is consistent," McCain said. "He has consistently taken both sides of any major issue. He has consistently flip-flopped on every issue."
On AM talk radio, McCain's campaign is airing ads that say that Republicans "can't afford Mitt Romney," who the ads claim "loses to Hillary Clinton by 16 points." Only McCain "can stop Hillary Clinton." Another says Romney's record in Massachusetts "should scare every Florida Republican. Four hundred million dollars."
Unaffiliated supporters of McCain are calling supporters of Rudy Giuliani calling a vote for Giuliani a "waste." Here in Sanford, they put fliers labeled "MItt-Flop" on the windshields of Romney's guests.
Earlier in the day, according to CBS News's Scott Conroy, Romney mentioned "a story" he once read where McCain said he had given some thought to being Sen. John Kerry's running mate in 2004." "Had someone asked me that question, there would not have been a nanosecond of thought about it," Romney said. "It would have been an immediate laugh.”
In Sanford, Romney cited a litany of McCain "accomplishments" that he said reflected the Arizonan's liberal apostasy, including the McCain-Lieberman trade-and-cap emissions program.
“There’s another guy running on our side, Sen. McCain... a good man, a hero...his views on the economy, well, I think are sort of summed up by his own statement that it’s not really something he understands that well. He’s said that a couple of times. Well, I do understand the economy, and I’m not going to be being any vice president to John McCain, either. That’s not going to happen.”
If Romney has one advantage heading into tomorrow's it in his campaign vast architecture. State director Mandy Fletcher presides over 11 staff members, dozens of near-full time volunteers and hundreds of part-time volunteers.
"Sen. McCain and our folks are tied here in Florida, and so that means we've got to get our folks out," Romney said in Sanford, gesturing to a roped off ad hoc phone bank, where volunteers used cell phones and call scripts to rope in supporters.
Tracking polls conducted for a statewide ballot initiative campaign jibe with three public polls showing a dead heat.
Edwards's Path
John Edwards's path to the nomination might be a path in the sense that a dirt road is a road, but so long as he's charging, he's got to go somewhere. And no one's worked harder at this over the past four years that Mr. Edwards.
The full memo is after the jump, but here are some excerpts.
We enter the February 5th phase of the campaign on solid financial footing. The campaign has enjoyed an online fundraising boom – over $3.2 million raised online since the first of the year – most of which will be doubled by federal matching funds. This represents an 81% increase over December in total number of contributions: 44,007 contributions were made during this period, compared with 24,240 from December 1 to December 31. These 44,007 contributions came from 35,351 donors compared to 20,243 in December. This is a 74% increase in contributing donors from December to January. We have seen an increase of 104% over the number of first-time givers in December (10,049). The pool of our support is widening – we’ve seen a 155% increase in new additions to our list compared to growth in December.
Bill Clinton didn't win a primary or caucus until Georgia. He didn't clinch the nomination until he defeated Jerry Brown in New York in April. This race will go to the candidate that can compete widely and over the long haul. We will be broadly competitive, accumulating groups of delegates across the February 5th states. Ultimately, we expect the race to narrow to one of the two celebrity candidates and us -- and when that happens, we are confident that the remaining contests will break in our direction as voters are finally offered the choice the national media has ignored all year -- the most progressive, most electable candidate in the race, John Edwards.
In addition, in the next 48 hours, the campaign will launch aggressive media buys starting in 10 states and likely expanding in the days leading up to February 5th. These will be significant media buys that will have a real impact on the race, particularly because voters in these states have not yet had broad exposure to John Edwards’ message. As we saw in South Carolina, once people have a chance to hear directly from John Edwards, the numbers move.
Sometimes, it's good to just appreciate a good speech for what it is.
Check out this kicker to today's endorsement thank-you for Ted Kennedy. Mr. Obama is referring to his father.
“I barely knew him, but when, after his death, I finally took my first trip to his tiny village in Kenya and asked my grandmother if there was anything left from him, she opened a trunk and took out a stack of letters, which she handed to me.
There were more than thirty of them, all handwritten by my father, all addressed to colleges and universities across America, all filled with the hope of a young man who dreamed of more for his life. And his prayer was answered when he was brought over to study in this country.
But what I learned much later is that part of what made it possible for him to come here was an effort by the young Senator from Massachusetts at the time, John F. Kennedy, and by a grant from the Kennedy Foundation to help Kenyan students pay for travel. So it is partly because of their generosity that my father came to this country, and because he did, I stand before you today – inspired by America’s past, filled with hope for America’s future, and determined to do my part in writing our next great chapter.”
Heading to Sanford, FL to hear Mitt Romney... today he's ratcheting up his attempt to disqualify John McCain's standing among conservatives... language includes phrases like "he'll say anything to get elected," which is what the kids call "irony," New Yorkers call "chutzpah" and McCain advisers will probably call b#(*$S#(*$..
The Second Black President
But the author of the idea that Bill Clinton was the First Black President, Toni Morrison, has endorsed Barack Obama.
Ted Kennedy Matters.
The debate in politics about whether endorsements matter is kind of like the debate in football about whether coaching matters. Most of the time, it matters on the margins. But sometimes, people, place and purpose come together, and an endorsement really stings a rival.
I think Sen. Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama, today, coming two days after South Carolina, coming at a time when, thanks to the ingenious placement of a New York Times editorial the night after a hard-fought and well-won victory after weeks of racial acrimony, well, this sentence has to end somewhere. Ted Kennedy matters. Forget the casual association of his name with blocks of Democrats Obama needs to do better with, like union members and downscale workers, Latinos and older liberals.
It allows Obama to further clarify what, for him, the Old Politics is all about -- that is, it allows him to separate the Politics of the Clintons from the politics of Democrats before the Clinton administration -- a party dominated by the Kennedy dynasty and their patrons, in many respects. And the The New Kennedy is even more of an attractive figure, in some respects. He has never shirked the responsibility of Democrats to beat up Republicans, but throughout his career, he has demonstrated a long arm for compromise. Most recently, He worked with President Bush on No Child Left Behind and with Mitt Romney (whether Romney currently accepts it or not) on health care in Massachusetts.
In some ways, there may be no member of the Democratic pantheon who better reflects the consensus-based, transformative and activist-oriented politics that Obama embraces.
And so Kennedy can be an enormously effective advocate for Obama because he understands, and, indeed, has practiced the New Politics.
There are 8 days till Super Tuesday. Thanks to Ted Kennedy and Camelot, Obama's won two of them. And because momentum seems to attenuate quickly, rolling out these endorsements when the spotlight was already on Obama extends the battery life for another 24 hours.
On a more visceral level, Ted Kennedy's endorsing your opponent is probably as big of a rebuke as there is in the Democratic Party -- even bigger than South Carolina.
Now -- it is true that Camelot, as many Democrats remember it, is idealized, and that Kennedy himself has done bad things to himself, his family and others, as Fox News and Republicans will no doubt remind. But voters know this -- they did not, after all, nominate Ted Kennedy in 1980. And so it probably does not bear any more mentioning in a political column.
"Ted, Get Some Spine..."
A bit of anti-EMK oppo circulating....
The Wood
(Go Giants!)
On The Road With John McCain
POLK CITY, FL -- I spent most of yesterday on the McCain roadshow as it wound through the back roads of Central Florida. Huge crowds, friendly, with overflow. A happy press corps enjoying the 60 degree sunshine. Nice backdrops. Special guest appearances by Joe Lieberman and others. A contended candidate. Even the trappings of something greater: a ropeline, something that McCain usually recoils against and his staff never bothers to erect.
McCain is attacking the problem of building a plurality in the state in an unorthodox way, partly born of necessity, partly because of style. There aren't Marshall Ganz-style house parties. Unlike Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, the campaign barely bothered to think about early and absentee voting. Where Guiliani (think catastrophic insurance fund) and Romney (think the economy) are responding to what the polls and editorial boards say are on the minds of Floridians, McCain largely sticks to one big theme, national security, and one obsession, which is spending. (If you ask a McCain adviser why he talks about spending, they will, first, laugh at you because McCain talks about whatever he wants, and secondly, point out that it really bothers Republicans of a certain stripe.)
The controversies of the moment barely seem to faze him. For days, the conservative blogosphere has been buzzing about McCain's Hispanic outreach adviser, Juan Hernandez, whose written and spoken positions on illegal immigration seem to be more liberal than McCain's. A woman named Joan from nearby Valrico, FL, nervously prefaced her question about him with magic words: "straight talk," as if trying to persuade McCain to answer the question even more honestly.
"He’s on my staff because he supports my policies and my proposals and my legislative proposal to secure the borders first," McCain said. Not a satisfying answer, but Joan probably wasn't inclined to support him anyway.
There were notably few immigration protesters, and when they did show up to McCain's events, they tended to stay on the periphery.
At a press availability, reporters wondered why McCain seemed to bristle at the notion that he's less comfortable talking about the economy. He used the opportunity to goad Romney.
"I’d be glad to compete and debate on those issues," he said. "My record on the economy is very strong. From being part of the Reagan revolution to cut taxes and restrain spending to my latest efforts that I have been involved in as chairman of the commerce committee and many other economic issues. So I’ll be glad to debate that side of the equation with Governor Romney. And his record of Governor of the state of Massachusetts is not one that I would want to imitate.”
(Translation: you wanna some of this, boy? Come get it.)
Then he was asked to justify his contention that Romney once supported a withdrawal timetable for Iraq. (I wrote this morning that McCain "stretched" history with the remark, and a few moments before this particular question received a stern talking to by two McCain aides and one reporter.)
McCain pulled out a notecard with blue cursive writing.
“I think that it’s very important because the Romney campaign has been trying to interpret his remarks in a way that can’t be interpreted."
He looked down at the note card.
"The statement is quote: you don’t want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you’re going to be gone. You can only interpret that as having timetables at that time were what the democrats and people who wanted to get out of Iraq were pushing. It was that time, when Harry Reid, the majority leader of the Senate said that the war was lost. It was that time when a few of us said the lowest point, said we’ve got to make sure that we send the message to al Qaeda - we will not send any timetables, we will win, we will increase the number of troops which is the way we will succeed in Iraq,”
An hour and half by bus to the Villages, a mammoth Truman Show-esque retirement community organized into gated communities with names like "Spanish Landing." An hour late, McCain arrived to find an overflow crowd laughing at Sen. Joe Lieberman's well-worn jokes. A Lake County, FL sheriff's deputy said that about 1,000 people crammed into the building.
From there, the roadshow toll-boot hopped to a pizza joint in Orlando.
At 7:00 pm, the press corps was wheels up to Jacksonville, and McCain was done for the day.
January 27, 2008
Countering EMK
Tomorrow, Sen. Hillary Clinton is in Massachusetts, of course... at noon... in her element among working class women.
Bloga Culpas: The Kennedy Endorsement
On Friday, following Ben Smith's careful nugget about Hillary Clinton's worry about a Kennedy endorsement of Barack Obama, I reported that people close to Kennedy were convinced that he would remain comfortably neutral. Well, the truth hurts, Drebin, and readers deserve an explanation.
I based my report on several sources, one of them being a person close to Bill Clinton, who said that, in conversations with Kennedy, the former president had come to believe that he would not endorse. (That source stands by Clinton's perception, and today, an adviser to the Clinton campaign said that Kennedy had told Democratic elected officials close to the Clintons that he would not endorse.)
Perhaps the radio silence from the Obama campaign should have tipped me off. They did not respond to my requests for comment. I can't say I wouldn't do the same thing in the same scenario, but to the extent that my reporting seemed in any way to denigrate Ben Smith's, I regret very much that perception.
We were both dealing with provisional information. But Ben was right. And I was not.
Some of you who actually read political blogs on Sundays might have also noticed that the first version of a report on Gov. Kathleen Sebelius's impending endorsement of Barack Obama said it would happen in Tuesday in Kansas. That last part of the report was not correct, and within three minutes of posting it, I removed.
Sebelius will endorse Obama; the details of the endorsement are under wraps, at the moment.
Sebelius Plans To Endorse Obama
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) will deliver the Democratic response to the State of the Union on Monday.
And then Tuesday or Wednesday, she plans to endorse Barack Obama, numerous Democratic sources said.
The sources said that Sebelius decided some time ago that Obama was her candidate but decided to wait until after the State of the Union.
An Obama spokesperson declined to comment.
"Right now, the Governor's focus is on delivering her response to the President's State of the Union message Monday night," said Nicole Corcoran, communications director to Sebelius. "The Governor will have more to say about the presidential campaign after Monday."
CBS News reports that Sen. Ted Kennedy will endorse Sen. Barack Obama tomorrow in Washington, D.C.
Quick Thoughts On Crist's Endorsement
A few thoughts: Crist is very popular in Florida, but he is NOT popular with conservative activists who (correctly) think he governs like a moderate Democrat.
He IS popular with rank-and-file Republicans, though...
This is not an inconsequential endorsement..
This also erases McCain's misleading attack on Romney from the headlines....
Rudy Giuliani, who arguably pandered to Crist by supporting his national catastrophic insurance fund, was holding out hope that he'd get the endorsement...
McCain Stretches Romney's Words
ORLANDO -- Neck and neck with Mitt Romney here, Sen. John McCain sought to the pull the inter-campaign conversation away from the economy and back into his wheelhouse Saturday, dredging up an April 2007 quote from Mitt Romney and misleadingly suggesting that Romney agreed with Democrats' plans to set a withdrawal timetable for Iraq.
"Gov. Romney wanted to set a date for withdrawal similar to what the democrats are seeking which would have led to the victory of Al-Qaeda in my view," McCain said, according to CBS News' Dante Higgins.
As proof, McCain's campaign directed reporters to an April 2007 interview with ABC News where
Romney said that the next "president and Prime Minister al-Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about."
That quote was derided by McCain at the time as a "secret timetable," although Romney never said he favored a particular withdrawal date and did not advocate an inflexible timeline for American troops to begin a draw down. Indeed, Romney has many times said he opposed such a withdrawal timetable.
McCain used the quote as part of a larger argument that he was the only Republican to fully support the surge of troops to Iraq commanded by Gen. David Petreaus. And it is clear that Romney has used softer language to characterize the likelihood of a pullout in his administration, once arguing that the Republican and Democratic presidents would likely not diverge in how they handled Iraq once they were in office.
Nonetheless, the words set off a fury of e-mail and telephone responses across the state, with campaign reporters for all the networks e-mailing each other the latest quotations from their candidates.
Romney said called McCain's charge "simply wrong" and "dishonest." A Romney spokesperson called McCain "unhinged;" A McCain spokesperson called the Romney spokesperson "Unhinged."
McCain later said it was Romney who should apologize, and "to the troops."
Kevin Madden, a Romney spokesman, then blasted this sentence to reporters: "This statement is especially egregious because Senator McCain knows in his heart that he is engaging in a blatant distortion towards a fellow Republican who is also committed to helping the men and women of our military achieve a successful result in Iraq."
Speaking later in Sun City, McCain repeated the charge that Romney favored a "timetable for withdrawal," words that Romney has never used.
Steve Schmidt, a senior McCain adviser, said that the context of the question was about withdrawal timetables. ". The question was about timetables and withdrawal. Romney answered it the way he answered it."
McCain later clarified the context: ""Last April, Governor Romney said he supported 'timetables' for withdrawing our troops from Iraq and keeping them secret. When he suggested secret 'timetables,' General Petraeus' new strategy in Iraq was just starting. Opponents of General Petraeus' strategy all argued that we should not increase troop levels, but establish 'timetables' for withdrawing our forces from Iraq. It was clear at the time that some were hedging their bets on Iraq, positioning themselves politically by being deliberately vague on their support for General Petraeus' new strategy. "
Rudy Giuliani, campaigning in Central Florida, used the occasion to distance himself from the internecine squabbles.
"We don't want to become like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, right? They're trying to work their way out of it, we shouldn't be trying to work our way into it."
January 26, 2008
The Bottom Lines
1. A win is a win is a win. Forget the racial and gender demographics. A big win is a big win. This is a big win. Obama nearly received more votes than all the Democrats combined in 2004. South Carolina was also a primary, not a caucus.
2. Finishing a low second and a few points ahead John Edwards is a tough truth for Hillary Clinton to confront. The campaign predicted they'd finish second but did not believe that Edwards would come as close as he did.
3. The South Carolina primary is ammunition for those who believe that Clinton is only electable on the coasts. (That's why she's in Tennessee tonight.) A point: in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, a majority of Democrats have voted against Hillary Clinton.
4. Undoubtedly, black voters were turned off by the Clinton campaign's insinuation that their vote really didn't count because everyone just knew they'd choose Obama.
5. The exit polls show that Bill Clinton did not help his wife not one bit in South Carolina and may have hurt her. Late deciders were driven to Obama by large margins.
6. Obama kept it competitive with white voters and brought tens of thousands of new voters and young voters into the process. His usual coalition -- younger folks, folks with college degrees -- expanded to include voters of all income levels. This is key to Feb. 5.
7. Whether the racial prism through which South Carolina was viewed was, in matter of fact, the
fault of a concerted effort by the Clintons, the political establishment believes it to be so, and the Clintons face a huge perception problem. BTW: the margin of victory tonight could persuade folks like Ted Kennedy to shrug off their neutrality and endorse.
8. Confidence does not become the Clinton campaign. When it gets cocky, it loses focus and humility, which seems to be the key to its success.
9. Boy, can the Obama campaign organize. Steve Hildebrand helped to put this together. Jeremy Bird, Stacey Brayboy and Anton Gunn executed it. Cornell Belcher polled it. And Michelle Obama helped more than one might expect.
10. The margin of victory was so big that the press was easily able to dismiss the Clinton campaign's spin tonight. But here are legitimate points they might make:
(a). About 20 percent of black voters did choose Hillary Clinton.
(b) In no major state going forward does Barack Obama have the same demographic advantages as he had in South Carolina. (In Georgia, 30% of the population is black; in Alabama, the figure is 25%. In California, which allocates 8 times as many delegates as South Carolina does, is about 7% black. (Arkansas and New York have large black populations, but…)
(c) South Carolina and Iowa were the two retail states where Obama's campaign worked the hardest and spent the most, and Obama was able to build movements in those states. But it took months. He can't replicate these organizations in 22 states in 9 days.
(d) Hillary Clinton is running strong in states like Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas -- all interior states -- and is stronger in the states with the most delegates.
(e) Including Florida and Michigan, more Democrats have voted for HRC than any other candidate by far.
HRC in Nashville: "Now, the eyes of the country turn to Tennessee and the other states that will be voting on Feb. 5 and of course to the state of Florida that will be voting on Tuesday. I want this election to be about the next generation..."
Obama in Columbia, SC:
"Those who doubted...tonight, the cynics who believe that what began in the snows of Iowa was just an illusion were told a different story by the good people of South Carolina..."
"After four great contests, in every corner of this country, we have the most votes, the most delegates, the most diverse coalition of Americans than we've seen in a long, long time..."
"The kind of change we seek will not come easy...partly because we have fierce competitors who are worthy of our respect and our admiration...we have to remember that this is a contest for the Democratic nomination ...there are real differences between the candidates..."
'Status quo...fighting back with the same old tactics that divide us....the kind of partisan that you're not even allowed to say that a Republican had an idea, even if it's one that you never agreed it."
"This is our chance..to end this once and for all."
"I did not travel around SC and see a white SC and a black SC. I saw SC. I saw crumbling schools and are stealing the future of black children and white children alike."
**WJC in Independence, MO: "This is an interesting race. Sen. Obama won there. Hillary congratulated him. He won fair and square. Now we go to Feb. 5 when millions of Americans finally get in the act. Let us begin with a fair statement. This country needs a change in direction."
**HRC calls Obama, congratulates him and "wishes him well"....rally in TN...and then to FLORIDA for private fundraisers Sunday
** In statement, says: "We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the twenty-two states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th."
** Edwards meeting with senior advisers soon.....
** Begins sending staff to Feb 5 states....
** Delegate allocation unknown.....
Gov. Charlie Crist: "I don't think anybody would be better" than McCain.
Crist: "That's an endorsement..."
South Carolina Primary Wire Everybody wants to rule the world.
Obama to speak at 9pm ET...
** 6 in 10 voters say Bill Clinton's campaigning was important; of those, a plurality voted for Obama. More exit poll data from CBS News:
** HRC and Edwards won 38% of the white vote
** HRC won 20% of the black vote to Edwards's 2 percent, which means she'll finish second.
** Black voters accounted for 53% of the electorate, up from 47%
** Obama brings in thousands of new voters...
** HRC/Edwards battle for third...may have split white voters...(Edwards: 39, HRC: 36, Obama: 24)
** Gender: Black men: 80 to 17, Obama to HRC. Black women: 82 Obama, 17 Clinton.
** Edwards win white men: Clinton/Obama tie... Clinton wins white women...
Note the 9/11 imagery and the portrayal of America under siege ...
Voice Over: “In the race for President who stands up for Florida? Only Rudy Giuliani.” Chyron: “In the race for President” Chyron: “who stands up for Florida?”
Chyron: “ONLY Rudy Giuliani”
Mayor Giuliani: “A Giuliani presidency will have two clear goals: returning our economic policy to the values of Ronald Reagan and taking the offense against Islamic terrorism.”
Voice Over: “Rudy Giuliani transformed a city called unmanageable …”
Chyron: “Rudy Giuliani”
Voice Over: “… into ‘the most successful episode of conservative governance in the past 50 years.’”
Chyron: “‘the most successful episode of conservative governance in the past 50 years.’ – George Will, Conservative Columnist, 1/28/07”
Voice Over: “Only Rudy Giuliani”
Chyron: “ONLY Rudy Giuliani”
Mayor Giuliani: “On my first day as President, I’ll send Congress the largest tax cut in history. I’ll take my case straight to the American people. I’ll fight for it, I’ll pass it and I know it’ll work because I’ve done it before. And I’ll deliver a national catastrophe fund to reduce insurance rates because I know what it means to your future.”
Voice Over: “In America’s fourth largest government …
Voice Over: “Rudy delivered record tax cuts …”
Voice Over: “reformed welfare …”
Voice Over: “and reduced spending. Only Rudy Giuliani.”
Chyron: “ONLY Rudy Giuliani”
Mayor Giuliani: “Dealing with Yasser Arafat, Fidel Castro, and the Mafia I learned one thing. The way you deal with terrorists, tyrants, and bullies is you to stand up them. You don’t back down.”
Voice Over: “In crisis, the nation looked to Rudy Giuliani for strength and hope. And in our darkest hours, we found it. Only Rudy Giuliani.”
Chyron: “ONLY Rudy Giuliani”
Mayor Giuliani: “This is the greatest country in the world. We have the will and the courage and the ideals to ensure the economic and physical safety of every single citizen. All we need is the leadership. And leading in crisis is what I do best.”
Voice Over: “ONLY Rudy Giuliani.
Mayor Giuliani: “I’m Rudy Giuliani, I approve this message, and I’m asking for your vote.”
Et Tu, J. Rubin?
When Jennifer Rubin, a fan of Rudy's, says that Rudy needs to win Florida or else....
Delegates V. Votes
Clinton communications impresario Howard Wolfson has written a memo that nicely summarizes the strategic argument the Clinton campaign will make over the next two weeks.
After some throat-clearing expectations setting for South Carolina, he writes: "Regardless of today’s outcome, the race quickly shifts to Florida, where hundreds of thousands of Democrats will turn out to vote on Tuesday."
As John Madden would say, "Boom." That's the line that tells you exactly how Clinton will campaign between now and Feb. 5.
For there are no delegates to be awarded in Florida. Clinton won't campaign there, but she will campaign for Florida -- and in all likelihood, she will win the votes of several hundred thousand Floridians on Feb. 29.
In Florida and beyond, watch for Clinton to focus on the forest, not the trees -- the national popular vote and the superdelegates who follow the herd, and not (so much) the earned delegates.
It's safe to say that, as of Feb. 6, Hillary Clinton will have earned the votes of at least several hundred thousand more Democrats than Barack Obama. Obama, on Feb. 6, might have a slight lead in earned delegates, depending on the number of states he wins. Or, the ratio of Clinton's delegates to Obama's will be smaller than the ratio of her popular vote total to his. States can be "won" and "lost" by the same candidate -- Nevada being one example. Votes are proportionally allocated by Congressional district, which poses a strategic quandary for all the campaigns: do they focus on "winning the delegates? Or do they focus on "winning the state?"
The Clinton campaign knows this. The Obama campaign knows this, too.
The Obama campaign's theory of the case can be called the "Delegate Dominoes." Since the nomination rests on -- and only on -- a foundation of delegate selection, the national popular vote difference is meaningless -- and the press should not be overly sensitive to its effects on momentum. If the press focuses on delegates going into Feb. 5 and coming out of Feb. 5, Obama has a correspondingly higher chance of avoiding the enormous crucible that is the media's declaration of a frontrunner. Here's why a post-Feb 5 media consensus about Clinton is so dangerous to Obama: for the first time in this race, it will be based on the votes of real people, and not the conventional wisdom that we pull out of our linked-at-the-pelvis rear ends.
Notice the distinction above between earned delegates and superdelegates. The Supers tend to latch their hitch to the winning wagons because a lot's at stake if they choose the wrong candidate. Clinton currently has a Superdelegate lead, and it's safe to say that Superdelegates, generally being timid, will come aboard if the voters give them permission.
Here's how Bill Burton, Obama's peach-ice-cream-tongued-spokesman, responded to the Wolfson memo:
“It should not be surprising given recent events that the Clinton campaign would in one breath say the election is about winning delegates and then tout their success in states that don’t award any delegates in the next breath. The DNC has made clear that the winner of the contest in Florida will not receive any delegates, so the next step in this nominating process is February 5th. If the Clinton campaign's southern strength rests on the outcome in a state where they're the only ones competing, that should give Democrats deep pause. Again, no one is more disappointed that Florida and Michigan Democrats will have no role in selecting delegates for the nomination of the party’s standard bearer than Senator Obama but he looks forward to vigorously competing for their votes in the general election.”
If you'd like to experience The Table as an audio podcast, click here.
Ted Kennedy Will Stay On The Fence, Probably
Seems like Hillary Clinton is worried that Ted Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama.
The betting among longtime Kennedy watchers, however, is that he will stay comfortably neutral.
January 25, 2008
Clinton. Obama Spar Over Florida Delegates
Sen. Hillary Clinton pledged today to work to seat Florida and Michigan's delegates at the Democratic National Convention, thereby negating the penalties meted out by the Democratic National Committee.
It's true that the party's eventual nominee will essentially take over the operations of the DNC -- and the DNConvention, so the pledge carries weight.
Clinton acknowledged that not all DNC members would be happy with her pledge and she insisted that she was abiding by an earlier vow not to campaign in Florida.
But Florida Democrats will find out about her kindly disposition through the media, and through the Florida Democratic Party, whose chair, Karen Thurman, thanked Clinton "for her support and commitment to the Sunshine State." Thurman said the party intends to select 210 delegates and 31 alternates and predicts that turnout for next Tuesday's primary will set records.
Late today, Barack Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, responded:
“No one is more disappointed that Florida Democrats will have no role in selecting delegates for the nomination of the party’s standard bearer than Senator Obama. When Senator Clinton was campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, she made it clear that states like Michigan and Florida that wouldn’t produce any delegates, ‘don’t count for anything.’ Now that Senator Clinton’s worried about losing the first Southern primary, she’s using Florida for her own political gain by trying to assign meaning to a contest that awards zero delegates and where no campaigning has occurred. Senator Clinton’s own campaign has repeatedly said that this is a ‘contest for delegates’, and Florida is a contest that offers zero. Whether it is Barack Obama’s record, her position on Social Security, or even the meaning of the Florida Primary, it seems like Hillary Clinton will do or say anything to win an election. When he is the nominee, Barack Obama will campaign vigorously in Florida and Michigan to put them in the Democratic column in 2008.”
Romney's Raising Gobs Of Money
Mitt Romney won't tell the voters of Florida how much money he's contributed from his own bank accounts, but it's clear that he hasn't stopped the inflow of cash from donors.
Over the next four days, Romney holds four high-dollar fundraisers in the tonier precincts of the Sunshine State.
Tonight, he'll ditch his press corps to attend a $2300 a plate fundraiser at the home of the son of Amb. Mel Sembler in Pinnelas Park, near Tampa.
On Sunday, Romney has two $2300-per-person fundraisers, one in Boca and the other in Palm Beach.
And the day of the Florida primary -- Romney will pose for photos with donors exercising their constitutional rights in St. Petersburg.
By no means is he done there: a colleague reports that McCain has four fundraisers scheduled for California before Feb. 5)
Edwards Closes On "Grown Up," Rural Strength
Ok, he's no longer the youngest guy in the bunch, but who'd have ever thought John Edwards would close his South Carolina campaign with the argument that he's the adult in the race?
(I am aware of the irony of the "adult" candidate broadcasting the harshest negative attacks from Monday's debate... as an attempt to show that it wasn't Edwards who said CLINTON IS A WAL-MART LACKEY and it wasn't Edwards who said OBAMA IS TIED TO REZKO. By the way: did John Edwards mention that he wasn't the one who called Clinton a WAL-MART lackey and Obama a SLUM-LORD CODDLER?)
SENATOR OBAMA: While I was working on those streets, you were a corporate lawyer sitting on the board of Wal-Mart.
SENATOR CLINTON: I was fighting against those ideas when you were practicing law and representing your contributor, Rezko, in his slum landlord business in inner-city Chicago.
EDWARDS: This kind of squabbling - how many children is this gonna get health care? How many people are gonna get an education from this? This is not about us personally. It is about what we are trying to do for this country.
I'm John Edwards and I approve this message.
"And I Won't Back Down..."
The... "Don't You Dare Count Me Out" e-mail:
EDWARDS TO VISIT FEBRUARY FIFTH STATES AND DISCUSS HIS PLANS TO MAKE SURE OUR GOVERNMENT WORKS FOR WORKING FAMILIES AND THE MIDDLE CLASS
Edwards will visit Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee to talk about his plans to fight for hard-working families like the ones he grew up with
Chapel Hill, North Carolina – Following the South Carolina primary, Edwards will travel to Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri to meet with voters and discuss his plans to make sure our government works for working families and the middle class, not just special interests. From guaranteeing universal health care to creating good jobs and enacting trade deals that help workers, not just big multinational corporations, Edwards will take on entrenched interests and fight for working and middle class families. On Sunday, January 27th, Edwards will hold a community event in Dublin, Georgia, and on Monday, January 28h, Edwards will be making stops in Chattanooga and Nashville, Tennessee, as well as Springfield, Missouri.
Martinez (Finally) Endorses McCain
Sen. Mel Martinez will endorse John McCain in Miami today, thereby guaranteeing McCain the lead spot on Florida newscasts and helping, potentially, in Central Florida, where Martinez, then the mayor of Orange County, put together a coalition of conservative white voters and Hispanics of all descent.
A new insider advantage poll has McCain and Romney exactly tied at 23.3%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 16% and Mike Huckabee at 13%.
Also: McCain recieved the endorsement today of State Rep. Clay Ford of Gulf Breeze, FL.
Previewing South Carolina
Here are excerpts from a preview of South Carolina's Democratic primary I wrote for our cousin publication, National Journal.
Before an important press conference last week, staffers at the South Carolina Democratic Party's headquarters here decided to decorate a conference room with the yard signs of its leading presidential candidates. The party serves as a neutral repository for campaign information, and visitors can choose from a variety of campaign literature, bumper stickers, and postcards boosting Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, or Dennis Kucinich. But there was a problem: They had run out of everything that said "Obama."
A call to Barack Obama's state headquarters provided only a partial fix: The campaign said it was running out of material, too, and could only spare a couple of yard signs. So a party volunteer was dispatched to fetch the precious commodity. Just moments before reporters would have noticed their absence, Obama signs were taped to the wall.
In South Carolina, as in Iowa, the Obama campaign has out-hustled, out-innovated, and outorganized its competition. Days before the Palmetto State's January 26 primary, his rivals had all but ceded the state to him. Obama is now spending the bulk of his time in South Carolina. Clinton, meanwhile, spent several days last week campaigning in other states. And Edwards's state director lowered expectations to the floor, saying he is confident that Edwards will get more than 15 percent of the vote in some congressional districts -- reaching the viability threshold for delegates, in other words.
The Firefighters' union's latest direct mail piece against Rudy Giuliani targets "Security Moms" and accuses Giuliani of compromising safety by "hiring yes men" and "showing bad judgment."
The unions says 128,000 Republican women between the ages of 40 and 80 will recieve the mail between now and Tuesday.
The Giuliani campaign released this testimonial video from Frank Siller, the brother of an FDNY firefighter.
Anti-Romney Robocalls In Florida?
The Mitt Report folks pass along this e-mail:
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Raphael Canton < theXXXX@XXXX>
Date: Jan 24, 2008 1:44 PM
Subject: I just got push polled
To: info@mittreport.com
I just received a call from (CALLER ID)
DR FE PR COM 703-378-7296
The call mentioned it was from Election Research, it said Romney was for government paid abortions, for gay marriage and against the bush tax cuts....it praised Huckabee on immigration.....obviously lies lies lies...... The end also left the phone #719-306-2543
I am in Wesley Chapel...15 minutes north of Tampa (proper) Pasco County.....
Clinton Kremlinology
It is hard to know for sure whether advisers to Hillary Clinton -- heck, Sen. Clinton herself -- is happy that the attention of the press corps is focused on her husband.
The New York Times's Healy, who has excellent sources in Hillaryland, writes that the brain trust has concluded that "aggressive politicking against Senator Barack Obama is resonating with voters, and they intend to keep him on the campaign trail in a major role after the South Carolina primary."
To the extent that Bill's focus keeps the press's focus on Obama's qualifications and forces Obama to spend time defending his record, the former president's participation is an unalloyed good. And certainly, the more Democrats he sees in person, the better. Core Democrats love him.
But what's not helpful -- and what is worrying some Clinton advisers -- is Clinton's habit, his itch, to revert to a habit of the partisan wars of his presidency -- he blames the media for everything and casts himself as the victim. (Classic Clinton self-pity is how Maureen Dowd put it.)
To Obama advisers, the video selection above is, in and of itself, an argument for Obama's candidacy. More of that?
But can anyone tell Bill Clinton that, even if he is right on the merits -- he has to simmer down? Is Sen. Clinton herself aware of the uniformly negative coverage that her husband's outbursts have generated? Remember: Bill Clinton helped to drive his wife off message in Iowa, too.
The Table: Brokered Primaries? And Beat The Press!
The Table mates -- myself, Ross Douthat and Matt Yglesias take a look at the past two weeks and preview Florida and beyond.
Ross and Matt are terrifically smart. Terrifyingly smart. They book have written books, too. So it's fun to pretend to be as sophisticated as they are.
Polling Update
MSNBC/McClatchy's survey of Republicans in Florida:
Romney 30
McCain 26
Rudy 18
Their survey of Democrats in South Carolina:
Obama 38
Clinton: 30
Edwards 19
And the national NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll of Democrats shows Barack Obama picking up nine points over the past month and Hillary Clinton staying where she is. She seems to have a floor and ceiling in the mid-to-upper 40s, whilst Obama's ceiling has wide-open skylights.
Seriously. I thought they would. A lot of us analyst types thought they would.
But they endorsed Hillary Clinton and John McCain. (This will no doubt not help McCain.)
The potential upside of a great Obama presidency is enticing, but this country faces huge problems, and will no doubt be facing more that we can’t foresee. The next president needs to start immediately on challenges that will require concrete solutions, resolve, and the ability to make government work. Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.
Roberta McCain Speaks Truth To Power
She's right: the Republican establishment is circling Mitt Romney right now, not her son.
Obama Reads The Late Show Top-Ten List
From the home office in Wahoo, Nebraska...
THE "LATE SHOW" TOP TEN
"Barack Obama Campaign Promises"
[As presented by Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama on the Thursday, Jan. 24 broadcast of the LATE SHOW with DAVID LETTERMAN, seen weeknights (11:35 PM 12:37 AM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.]
10. To keep the budget balanced, I’ll rent the situation room for sweet sixteens.
9. I will double your tax money at the craps table.
8. Appoint Mitt Romney secretary of lookin’ good.
7. If you bring a gator to the White House, I’ll wrassle it.
6. I’ll put Regis on the nickel.
5. I’ll rename the tenth month of the year “Barack-tober.”
4. I won’t let Apple release the new and improved Ipod the day after you bought the previous model.
3. I’ll find money in the budget to buy Letterman a decent hairpiece.
2. Pronounce the word nuclear, nuclear.
1. Three words: Vice President Oprah.
FlaDems To DNC: We're Voting. Deal With It.
According to the Florida Democratic Party, 295,932 votes have already been cast ahead of Tuesday's non-delegate "primary." (Remember: the DNC stripped the state of its delegates after Florida refused to abide by DNC rules.)
100,000 Democratic absentee ballots have yet to been returned.
**Florida Primary Vote Totals through Wednesday, 1/22 - 5 days to go**
2008 PRES PRIMARY Early Vote (Day 10): 385,385 total voters
D: 170,806 (44.3%)
R: 168,812 (43.8%)
Other: 45,767 (11.9%)
More than 63,000 Floridians early-voted on Wednesday - the highest daily turnout so far.
2008 PRES PRIMARY Absentee (vs. 2006 GENERAL final)
Statewide Absentee Requests: 604,882 (915,186)
D: 232,138/38.4% of total ballots requested (299,635/32.7% of '06 total) - 77.5%
R: 298,545/49.4% (503,848/55.1%) - 59.3%
Other: 74,199/12.3% (111,703/12.2%) - 66.4%
Statewide Absentee Returns: 313,617 - 51.8% in to date (736,829 - 80.5%)
D: 125,126/40.0% of total ballots returned (245,206/33.3% of '06 total)
R: 156,349/50.0% (410,751/55.7%)
Other: 32,142/10.2% (80,872/11.0%)
Purple Thumb Guy Endorses Romney
Actually, Morton Blackwell is known for more than just his Purple Thumb trick at the Republican National Convention. He's one of architects of the VRC that Hillary Clinton worried about in the 90s and has trained a generation of conservative leaders for political combat.
Romney Aims His Charm At Fredheads
His rich campaign can afford to be this nice: you can now order Fredheads for Mitt stickers off Mitt Romney's website.
Fredheads, of course, are -- were -- supporters of Fred Dalton Thompson's presidential bid.
Crist Hints He Might Endorse
Interviewed by Larry Kramer on CNBC, the governor of Florida (lambasted by the Wall Street Journal today as the "allegedly Republican" governor of Florida), said there five more days left between now and the primary and that he hadn't made up his mind.
Maybe John McCain is too kind to force Crist's hand -- McCain was the only one of the presidentials to campaign for him in 2006, and Crist has let McCain know that he hasn't forgotten it.
On the other hand, Rudy Giuliani has embraced Crist's proposal for a national catastrophic insurance fund -- the offense that led to this morning's Journal smackdown.
A "Stealth" Endorsement of Romney?
That's what Time's Michael Scherer believes to be the case after an exegesis of Focus on the Family's video candidate guides.
But Tom Minnery, Focus's media-savvy senior vice president for policy, says nay:
First of all, rest assured that we have not been endorsing any candidates, either “stealthily” or otherwise. Our comments are what they are — a review of what the candidates, both Democrat and Republican, are saying on issues we think Christians care about.
By the way, something else is happening here. I believe the mainstream media doesn’t quite know how to deal with alternative media such as ours. They’ve always considered themselves to have the corner on commentary, and now that we are able to reach our audience directly, rather than through them, and to say directly to our audience what we want to say, they have no pigeonhole to put us in.
I'm with Scherer.
South Carolina In Flux
A spate of negative press may finally be catching up to Hillary Clinton in South Carolina. A new poll shows her in dangering of losing her second place standing to John Edwards, editorial boards across the country -- from the coasts to the plains -- have excoriated the campaign for running demonstratively false radio ad, and Bill Clinton's adrenal outbursts are being universally judges as harmful.
There was a better than even chance that had polls show John Edwards trailing Clinton significantly in South Carolina, he might have ended his campaign early. A lot of that support -- white, working class voters and poor black voters -- would have swung Clinton's campaign.
Joe Erwin, an Obama supporter who never minces his words, wrote in a campaign memo that "Hillary Clinton’s campaign is pulling out all the stops to win in South Carolina." He noted that the Clinton doubled its advertising buy to nearly $414,000 per week.
A few hours later, the Clinton campaign responded with Obama's own words:
Earlier today, the Obama campaign circulated an expectations-setting memo that asserted that Senator Clinton is going “all-out” to win in South Carolina. But just two days ago, Senator Obama gave an interview to CBN’s David Brody where he suggested just the opposite.
Senator Obama: “I think the South Carolina voters will have to make an assessment in terms of how seriously she's taking the state. She said last night that Bill Clinton wasn't the one running for President, but this is the next primary and he's the one who's staying behind." [Obama interview, David Brody, 1/22/08]
So does the Obama campaign think we are giving up on South Carolina or going all out for it? I guess it depends on the day.
The truth is that Clinton wants to finish second -- preferably a strong second -- and wants whatever wounds were opened in South Carolina to heal quickly.
Scalia's Son Endorses Romney; Lots Of Fred-Heads Re-Camp
John McCain is earning more establishment endorsements these days, but prominent Republican lawyers -- a big part of that Capital "E" Establishment --, for the most part, are briefing someone else:
Eugene Scalia, son of Justice Antonin Scalia and a former chief lawyer for the labor department, has been neutral in the presidential race until today. He's now aboard Lawyers for Romney, and joining him are about a dozen prominent Republican lawyers who, until Monday, had been supporters of Fred Thompson.
Other big names include Rachel Brand, the former associate attorney general under Alberto Gonazles, Viet Dihn, another former senior Bush administration attorney, and the ubiquitous Victoria Toensing and Joseph DiGenova.
Check the jump for a full listing. Many of the names played large roles in the confirmation of Justices Alito and Roberts.
Star Frosh Senator Claims Clinton "Fast And Loose" With Truth
In a conference call today to tout Barack Obama's Feb 5 strategy, Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, widely considered her party's best new Senate candidate of the 2006 cycle, warned President Bill Clinton to not play "fast and loose with the truth" on the campaign trail.
McCaskill was responding to a reporter's open-ended question about Bill Clinton's evolving diary of public thoughts about Mr. Obama.
"I do not begrudge Bill Clinton's working for his wife, but the one thing I would say is really important to President Clinton to think about right now, because of the larger megaphone he has as a former president, he really needs to be careful with the truth."
McCaskill went on to say that Clinton "tried to manipulate the facts in a way that is patently unfair," "flat wrong," and "demeaning." She did not elaborate.
Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) urged Clinton to remember that the Democrats would have to unify around a candidate "before Denver," she said, referring to the party's nomination convention, and to choose his words carefully.
McCain Is -- Finally -- In The Money
As first reported by Time, Sen. John McCain has raised more than $7M since the beginning of the month -- most of it over the past two weeks. Nearly $3M has been raised online.
A major McCain fundraiser told me yesterday that a victory in Florida could bring in $5M from the well-heeled donor establishment, a group McCain has still been unable to render harmless or favorable.
After Florida, assuming Romney and McCain finish one/two or two/one, will the money flow to the self-funder -- Romney? or to the guy who needs it but doesn't like to raise it -- McCain?
(Updated) Clinton Campaign Pulls The Misleading South Carolina Ad....
A Clinton aide said the ad was not intended to air for long, had finished its rotation, and had yielded its space to a "closer" ad that focuses on policy.
Obama's Feb 5 Strategy Develops....
So how does Barack Obama campaign after South Carolina?
The outlines of a strategy are becoming visible. Obama and his surrogates will operate under the assumption that the more aggressive Hillary Clinton campaigns, the more outbursts Bill Clinton has, the more voters in interior red and purple states will find the Clintons off-putting and that the negative feelings will obscure the Clinton mantra that only she (and he) can stand up and protect their interests.
Advisers believe that the more the Clintons poke at Obama, the more sympathetic he becomes, and the more she plays into his contention that she's a divisive, polarizing figure; Obama's polling shows and his campaign's strategists sense that it reminds Democrats in the interior of the country of the Clinton of yore: cold, unlikable, sarcastic -- and coastal. In states like Arizona, Kansas and Idaho and Missouri, Clinton will scare off independents and will lose support among younger women, in particular.
Also: Obama's brain trust believes that Clinton's decision to essentially cede South Carolina to him will backfire, as it will allow him to demonstrate that Iowa was not a fluke -- he can turnout young voters everywhere -- and, that African Americans will resent her refusal to participate in "their" primary.
The coastal prizes of California and New York will be tough, but Obama may well do better in enough congressional districts to keep the margins close -- better, Obama's team believes, than Clinton will do in the interior of the country.
Purple and Red-state surrogates abound: Gov. Janet Napolitano and Sen. Claire McCaskill will argue, in subtle terms, that only Obama can unify the country, which will be interpreted as a knock against Clinton's downward pull on other Demcorats on the ballot.
The concern is out there: one reason Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, carefully tended to by the Clinton world, has stayed neutral is that she fears that having Clinton on the ticket would hurt other Democrats in her state, a Clinton adviser who spoke to Sebelius said.
Once again, the campaign has one theory and the national political press corps has another.
The coverage so far has centered on the notion that Obama allowed Bill Clinton to break his stride and mess up his head, forcing him to spend half of his stump speech reciting and rebutting Clinton allegations. His unsurprising assumed victory South Carolina would reinforce the perception that Obama appeals only to young, rich, white people and to black voters.
Obama's campaign manager and surrogates are hosting a conference call later and will fill in some of the details.
Once Upon A Time, John McCain Actually Liked Mitt Romney
First Look: Mitt Romney's Newest Florida Ad
It's heavy on the conservative validators, from Fred Barnes to the National Review to... the National Review.
Tonight's Debate
The podium order for tonight's Republican presidential debate is:, from left to right, audience view: Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Paul Huckabee.
Brian Williams will be on stage left; Tim Russert will be on stage right. Twice, the audience will be brought into the conversation.
Lawyers for Hillary Clinton urge Nevada Democratic Party's chair Jill Derby to reject what they call the "minor procedural problems" brought to light by Barack Obama's lawyer and instead ask her to focus on the Obama campaign's "premeditated and predesigned" plan to "engage systematic corruption" of the party's caucus procedures.
The Clinton team alleges that caucus cards were "premarked" for Obama, that Obama precinct chairs delibaretly miscounted votes, that young children were counted as having voted for Obama, that Clinton caucus goers were asked to leave before official counts were taken.
In Louisiana, Uncommitted Beats McCain, But McCain Beats Romney
It seems that "pro-life uncommitted" won the Louisiana Republican caucuses last night.
But Mitt Romney, the only candidate with a real precinct organization there, trailed behind Sen. John McCain and Ron Paul in the final results.
Per the state party:
Delegate candidates endorsed by US Senator John McCain (R-AZ) appear to have won more state convention delegate positions than any other presidential slate at the Louisiana Caucuses.
Mitt Romney finished third (fourth, really).
Obama Hits Clinton In SC Response Ad
Barack: I’m Barack Obama, running for President and I approve this message.
Anncr: It’s what’s wrong with politics today. Hillary Clinton will say anything to get elected. Now she’s making false attacks on Barack Obama. The Washington Post says Clinton isn’t telling the truth. Obama “did not say that he liked the ideas of Republicans” In fact, Obama’s led the fight to raise the minimum wage, close corporate tax loopholes and cut taxes for the middle class. But it was Hillary Clinton, in an interview with Tom Brokaw, who quote “paid tribute” to Ronald Reagan’s economic and foreign policy. She championed NAFTA – even though it has cost South Carolina thousands of jobs. And worst of all, it was Hillary Clinton who voted for George Bush’s war in Iraq. Hillary Clinton. She’ll say anything, and change nothing. It’s time to turn the page.
The Best Pollster in Florida, Rob Schroth, Has New Numbers
** The poll was conducted AFTER Fred Thompson dropped.
** The sample size is 800 likely voters
** Did I mention: Schroth and his partner Tom Eldon are generally considered the best of the non-partisan political pollsters in the state. (Mason Dixons' folks are a close second -- or maybe tied -- heck, I'm a humanist -- they're all the best.)
The poll was conducted for several news outlets, including the St. Petersburg Times and the Miami Herald.
Bill Clinton Bitches Out The Media
Excuse the French, but that's the only word that came to mind when reading a transcript of Bill Clinton responding to a shouted question from Jessica Yellin in South Carolina. I await the video. (Context: ex-SC GOP chair Dick Harpootlian, an Obama supporter, likened Clinton to Lee Atwater.)
"I never heard a word of public complaint when Mr. Obama said Hillary was not truthful, no character, was poll-driven. He had more pollsters than she did.
When he put out a hit job on me at the same time he called her the senator from Punjab, I never said a word. And I don't care about it today. I'm not upset about it.
The only thing I pointed out was that there was substantially no difference in her record and his on Iraq, and that he had said in 2004 there was no difference between his position and President Bush. And he said that was somehow dishonest, but he never answers how it's not accurate. So this is crazy.
This rhetoric is getting a little carried away here. And let me remind you, my ultimate answer is this -- there are still two people around who marched with Martin Luther King and risked their lives, John Lewis and Reverend Andrew Young. They both said that Hillary was right and the people who attacked her were wrong, and that she did not play the race card, but they did.
So I don't have to defend myself from Dick Harpootlian. I will just refer you to John Lewis and Andrew Young. And let him go get in an argument with them about it.
Let him go get in an argument with Dolores Huerta, one of the founders of Farm Workers, against what happened in Nevada.
There is a fact here -- this is almost like once you accuse somebody of racism or bigotry, or something, the facts become irrelevant. There are facts here.
And the final thing I would like to say is, you're asking me about this, and you sat through this whole meeting. Not one single, solitary soul asked about any of this. And they never do.
They are feeding you this because they know this is what you want to cover. This is what you live for.
But this hurts the people of South Carolina, because the people of South Carolina are coming to these meetings and asking questions about what they care about. And what they care about is not going to be in the news coverage tonight because you don't care about it.
What you care about is this. And the Obama people know that. So they just spin you up on this and you happily go along. The people don't care about this. They never ask about it. And you are determined to take this election away from them. And that's not right. That is not right. This election ought to belong to those people who are out here asking questions about their lives.
Romney Once Admired McCain's Record In Washington
Who called John McCain: “… Washington’s number one watchdog against waste" ?
Yes, it was Mitt Romney, in Turnaround.
When Mr. Romney criticizes McCain for spending 24 years in Washington and accomplishing nothing, just bear in mind the political imperative.
Will Florida Come Down to Romney v. McCain?
Matt Towery, who knows something about the South, thinks so.
Where's Fred?
Rudy Giuliani, who seems to be spending as much time on Fox News as he does in campaign events in Florida, said of his efforts to talk to Sen. Fred Thompson:
"I haven't been able to reach him yet."
Hmm.
I was told that Thompson called McCain yesterday to brief him on the impending drop-out, but a source close to Thompson says no such call was made and that Thompson had no plans to make campaign-related phone calls.
From day one, the liberal media has criticized my strategy of focusing on delegate rich states like Florida. An unprecedented primary calendar called for an unconventional strategy. And it has paid off in a big way.
We are tied at the top in Florida polls, but ultimately this race is about more than rhetoric and flashy campaign ads. I'm running for President because I believe I have the best ideas and boldest vision to lead this country forward. I will get this economy growing again and put people back to work and I will keep us on offense in the Terrorists' War on Us.
With less than a week to go until Florida, and the polls showing me in a three-way dead heat, I need you now more than ever. Your gift of $10, $25, $50 or $100 will give me the momentum that will carry me to victory in Florida. Please ask your friends and family to do the same.
With the volatility in the stock markets leaving millions of Americans uncertain about the future, it's important that our next President have experience in turning around an economy in peril and putting people back to work. In New York, I was chief executive of the 17th largest economy in the world, cut taxes 23 times and cut a 10% unemployment rate in half.
Fred Malek Has A Blog
The gentleman is one of the biggest donors in the Republican Party, a behind-the-scenes-poo-bah, a major venture capitalist, a Vietnam veteran, and an opinion leader whose thoughts are worth reading.
The Dow
closed up more than 280 points today.
Obama Campaign Asks For Inquiry In Nevada
They're not contesting the results, but Barack Obama's presidential campaign wants Nevada Democrats to investigate whether Hillary Clinton's precinct captains broke caucus rules.
Robert Bauer, Obama's general counsel, writes in a letter to NV Dem chair Jill Derby to "conclusively and clearly" address what he terms a "disturbing pattern of incidents" that took place last Saturday.
Specifically, Bauer claims that the official Clinton precinct chair manual falsely stated that the doors to the caucus site be closed at 11:30, when, in fact, anyone still in line to register by 11:30 would be allowed in. The consequence was that many Obama supporters who followed the rules didn't get to caucus. (The Clinton campaign has noted, in response, that their manual makes clear that Democrats in the queue could still participate and have said the rest of their manual followed the letter and spirit of caucus rules.)
Bauer also details what he terms "voter supression" efforts by Clinton precinct captains. He writes that the campaign receieved more than 1,000 separate complaints.
There's no question that the Obama campaign is genuinely disturbed -- as is, by the way, the Clinton campaign, whose volunteers also recorded several hundred episodes of ne'er do-welling by Obama supporters and by the Culinary Local 266 in particular.
If the party investigates, the story of the shenanigan-filled caucuses stays alive.
The Whole World Cringes With You?
Ana Marie Cox wonders if this was Mitt Romney's "macaca" monent. My immediate reaction was: boy, am I embarassed to be a white guy right now. That Romney's mind went there -- and I've never heard him quote a rap song before -- suggests he's a little fogeyish and of a different generation... kind of a, "the kids these days, they listen to rap" thing.
The belated discovery by Republican candidates that Monday was MLK day... that's a bit more questionable in my book.
Ken Mehlman must be rolling over in his ... well, glitzy Washington office right now.
Ledgermain From The Clinton Campaign
Hillary Clinton's first negative contrast ad against Barack Obama in South Carolina is a masterful example of creative ledgermain.
The claim that Barack Obama praised Republican ideas or, in Clinton's words, found them "better" than Democratic ideas -- that is, the ideas themselves -- is false. Obama, in a meeting with a Reno editorial board, said that Republicans pushed new ideas to the the fore while Democrats were largely silent. That is, he praised Republicans for coming up new ideas. Nowhere did he say he preferred those ideas.
Now, it's perfectly plausible to contest the claim that Republicans came up with new ideas while Democrats didn't. But that's not the direction the Clinton campaign wanted to go.
The Clinton campaign knows it that if they repeated the claim that Obama just loved those ol' Republican ideas, they'd be lying.
So here is the script of their new radio ad:
VO: “Listen to Barack Obama last week talking about Republicans.
BO: “The Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time there over the last 10, 15 years.”
VO: “Really? Aren’t those the ideas that got us into the economic mess we’re in today? Ideas like special tax breaks for Wall Street. Running up a $9 trillion debt. Refusing to raise the minimum wage or deal with the housing crisis. Are those the ideas Barack Obama’s talking about?”
BO: “The Republicans were the party of ideas.”
VO: Hillary Clinton thinks this election is about replacing disastrous Republican ideas with new ones, like jumpstarting the economy. Putting an immediate freeze on foreclosures and mortgages. Cutting taxes for the middle class. and creating millions of new jobs. With the economy in crisis, we need a president with the ideas, the solutions that get america working for all of us. Hillary Clinton. Solutions for America.
The ad implies -- but does not say -- that Obama valued the ideas themselves. It implies, but does not say -- that he was praising Republican solutions. In doing so, the ad distorts the context of what Obama said without explicitly repeating the falsehood itself.
Word from Romneyville is that Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) has endorsed Gov. Mitt Romney, bringing to six the number of John McCain's colleagues who've fallen behind the former Mass. governor.
Here's the statement that Cochran plans to release:
"It is an honor to join Governor Romney and his campaign for our nation's highest office. At this moment our nation faces unprecedented challenges, and Governor Romney has the experience, vision and values needed to strengthen our country for future generations," said Senator Cochran. "Governor Romney is a man of outstanding judgment and strong character. I look forward to working with him and helping
Obama Vice Presidential Ticket Watch
Ex-Rep. Tim Roemer endorses Barack Obama....
Absentee Explosion In Florida
If there's a race, they will vote -- even if there are no delegates.
For Democrats, the number of returned absentee ballots in Florida so far exceeds the total number turned in in the 2004 general election, and the number of Democratic early voters plus the number of absentees requested is more than the number of actual voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada combined.
This means that despite the fact that NO Democrat is campaigning in Florida, no Democrat is advertising in Florida (except on cable) and the DNC is ignoring Florida, Democratic voters in Florida are organically excited about the primary race and their party's prospects for November, 2008 -- and are voting despite the temporal meaningless of their vote. That's pretty impressive... and it also poses a philosophical quandary: if a million Democrats vote next Tuesday in a meaningless primary, did they actually vote? What does the media say about them? What if one candidate wins by a large margin?
The state Democratic Party says that 96,286 absentee ballots have been returned, up from 93,909 in 2004. 100,000 ballots have yet to be returned. Combining the number of early voters (121,693) with the number of absentees requested, you get 316,940 -- more than the total Democratic vote for each of the three early states.
The party projects a turnout of more than 1,000,000.
Today's Tim Toles Cartoon
January 22, 2008
A New Clinton Video Slams Obama For Single-Payer...
The Obama campaign calls the video "dishonest." They say Obama has always said that he'd design a single payer system from scratch, if he could, but we're well beyond scratch at this point in our history.
The video evidence seems to show Obama squarely favoring a single-payer system now -- as in 2003.
I asked the Clinton campaign to provide more of the raw footage... so listen to it and judge for yourself.
The political point is that Obama says he's immune from attacks about inconsistency during the general election; if he's found to be inconsistent, or he appears to be inconsistent, it adds information to what voters know about him.
=
On Louisiana's Caucuses Tonight
Louisiana was thought to be a battle between Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney.
Romney has the support of two congressmen and announced teams in every district. It is winner take all by congressional district and majority receives at-large delegates.
It's the only Southern caucus, so conservative conservatives will probablt turn out.
This is Romney's to lose...
Another gold medal... albeit in the state equivalent of Olympic curling, but still...
As does CBS News Giuliani watcher Ryan Corsaro, who writes that Giuliani declined to endorse his surrogate's contention that John McCain was out of touch.
“I don’t believe that Republicans should be attacking each other. I think we should be pointing out our policy decisions. I supported the Bush tax cuts, John McCain voted against them, Mitt Romney was equivocal on them. That’s a difference, a policy difference. My tax plan, you can contrast it with their tax plan, it’s different. Some of it’s the same some of it’s different…”
And how's that working you, Mr. Mayor?
Some things to keep in mind:
(1) Maybe Giuliani knows that he has a reputation for nastiness and doesn't want to replenish the tanks for that stereotype.
(2) Maybe Giuliani really likes John McCain and doesn't want to hurt his feelings. Or maybe he believes that McCain will be the nominee and doesn't want to hurt him too much.
(3) Maybe Giuliani is content to let the surrogates have their way with McCain because that forces the press to ask Giuliani why he's not joining in, which forces the press to report the iniital slurs?
(4) Maybe Giuliani believes that if he keeps his message to policy, he'll rise above the fray. Problem is: McCain isn't really responding to Mitt Romney either. And, come to think of it, Romney's off in his own world of optimism.
Richardson's A Tease
The subject line of a Bill Richardson campaign e-mail is "My Endorsement."
Right?
But the body is just an appeal to retire his campaign debt.
Tom Brady With A Cast On His Foot?
Permit me one part Giantfreude and one part sympathy.
By The Way
The Louisiana Republican Caucuses are tonight.
Thompson's Candidacy In Retrospect
He was NOT lazy; his command of policy equaled or exceeded that of his rivals, and he was, as he said, pretty clearly a consistent conservative for his public life. But his staff was poorly managed; it started much too late; his campaign was riven by internal fueds and suspicions: one faction accused the other of leaking to reporters.
He had a nomination strategy that was plausible enough: do well in Iowa, build a bridge to South Carolina, earn delegates everywhere, defeat a single rival handily on Feb. 5 in the Southern states, and earn the establishment's backing.
Demographically, he alienated Republican women. Mike Huckabee effectively shut off his support in Iowa and South Carolina. In truth, he could have campaign a little more and emphasized retail, rather than stump speeches. He did not raise as much money as he could have, in part because so many donors wondered whether his heart was in the race.
And in many ways, he tried to occupy a space that John McCain more credibly occupied; national security strength, straight talk on the economic challenges facing the country and resiliency.
Thompson Drops: The Statement
"Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."
Where Rudy's At
I'm not prepared to declare Rudy Giuliani dead and buried, but I think Patrick Ruffini (who, a blue moon ago, worked for the campaign) is right: it's not so much that the Giuliani campaign's insight about Florida was incorrect; it was that the process of vigorously campaigning elsewhere would hurt Rudy more than help him. The converse is true: playing everywhere was the only way to build a constituency of Rudy supporters who would provide the noise and momentum and energy to help him in Florida.
Thompson Decides To Drop Out
Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson has told several Republicans that he has decided to drop out of the presidential race and will make public his intentions by close of business.
Thompson does not plan to endorse any rivals for now, even though one of his best friends is Sen. John McCain.
He's been visiting his mother, who is ill, in Tennessee.
Thompson Decides To Drop Out
Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson has told several Republicans that he has decided to drop out of the presidential race and will make public his intentions by close of business.
Thompson does not plan to endorse any rivals for now, even though one of his best friends is Sen. John McCain.
He's been visiting his mother, who is ill, in Tennessee.
No Rush To McCain Here
Just as there are conservative precincts warming to John McCain, the counter-reaction is growing just as furiously. Check out this excerpt from Rush Limbaugh:
We are supposedly damaging the conservative movement. We should just shut up. Just sit by and watch all this stuff and let it happen and just be quiet. What is the point? By the way, it's aimed at people in talk radio. Why should we in talk radio "just shut up," and start supporting the front-runner of the moment? Especially when you realize that's what the Drive-By Media wants! Why should we in talk radio sit here and take our marching orders from the Drive-By Media and others in our movement who write what they write, for liberals in the Drive-By Media. Why should we do that. McCain, frankly, has shown conservatives little but contempt over many years.
Wonder what happens if McCain is the nominee? If McCain was able to reconcile with John Courson, he can reconcile with Rush Limbaugh.
Obama Ties Clinton Changes To Politics
Jon Favreau pulled another all-nighter, and some crisper language against Hillary Clinton and the economy were the result:
In the debate last night, we spent some time talking about the economy. And one of the things I brought up that concerned me was that when Senator Clinton first released her economic stimulus plan, she didn’t think that workers or seniors needed immediate tax relief. She thought it could wait until things got worse. Five days later, the economy didn’t really change, but the politics apparently did, because she changed her plan to look just like mine.
It reminds me of what happened when we started debating the credit card industry’s bankruptcy bill – a bill that would make it much harder for working families to climb out of debt. Believe it or not, Senator Clinton said again last night that even though she voted for the bill, she was glad it didn’t pass. I know you can get away with this in Washington, but most of us know that if you don’t want to see a bill pass, there’s a pretty easy option available – you can vote against it.
And we’ve heard her say the same kind of thing about NAFTA and China trade –agreements that sent millions of American jobs – thousands from this very state – overseas. Because only in Washington could Senator Clinton say that NAFTA led to economic improvement up until she started running for President. Now she says we need a time-out on trade. No one knows when this time-out will end. Maybe after the election.
The point is – this is exactly the kind of politics we can’t afford right now. Not when the stakes are this high. Not when the economy is this fragile. Not when so many banks are foreclosing on people’s dreams. We can’t afford a President whose positions change with the politics of the moment, we need a President who knows that being ready on day one means getting it right from day one. And South Carolina, if you give me the chance, that’s the kind of President I’ll be.
In my twenty-five years of public service, my positions haven’t changed when the politics got hard, and neither will the policies I pursue as President.
While much of this campaign has focused on Senator Obama’s rhetoric, there has not been much attention paid to Senator Obama’s record. Last night, that changed. With the fireworks now receding, it’s time to focus on the substance.
From questions about his commitment to fiscal responsibility to his relationship with a donor currently under indictment to his consistency on key issues, last night raised new issues that the Obama campaign must confront today.
Senator Obama, for example, was the only member of the Illinois State Senate to vote present on a bill that would have increased privacy protections for victims of sexual assault. Senator Obama claimed he sponsored that bill and only voted present because of "a legal provision in it that was problematic and needed to be fixed so that it wouldn't be struck down." But the reality is that he did not sponsor the bill and more than seven years after it became law, the measure has not been struck down. It was one of almost 130 present votes that he cast as a state lawmaker.
Senator Obama claimed that suggestions he does not pay for his spending proposals are false. But in fact, he has failed to say how he would pay for over $50 billion worth of the new programs he discusses on the campaign trail.
Senator Obama asserted that the Clinton campaign has suggested he was not really opposed to the war in Iraq. In fact, the Clinton campaign believes Senator Obama opposed the war – we are simply taking issue with what he did – or did not do – to end the war after he gave his speech in 2002.
As an attorney, Senator Obama represented now-indicted influence peddler Tony Rezko in his efforts to develop government-subsidized slum housing. Interestingly, Senator Obama has thus far failed to return all contributions associated with Mr. Rezko, which included money that was given through straw donors or obtained from Illinois taxpayers.
Senator Obama voted against an amendment that would have capped credit card rates at 30%. Senator Obama says he voted against the limit because it was “too high.” And today there is no cap at all on interest rates.
Finally, Senator Obama said last night that he “never said we should go ahead and get a single payer system.” But the reality is that he said exactly that when he was running in the primary for the U.S. Senate in 2003.
It's Hard Out There For Conservatives
Containing political panic over the economy is hard for professional conservatives in Washington -- those who spend their days thinking about, writing about, debating conservatism, especially when there's a presidential race on the candidates are facing real voters in town hall meetings.
The Pro-Cons will caution patience. And the candidates will be on hastily-called telephonic conferences with policy advisers asking for help: "What can I say that won't anger the Pro-Cons? Are there are any arrows left to fire?"
When economic crises intervene, politicians are expected to do something or say something, and Democrats, because they can keep increasing the tab on their stimulus packages, often have more to say. Though Republicans are running to head the government, their antipathy to government intervention and regulation, based in part on philosophy and principle, in part on the need to psychically separately themselves from the other party and in part on the need to pander to their donors -- closes off many avenues for amelioration. (Indeed, there's even an interesting and non-academic debate about whether crises ought to be ameliorated -- most stimulus plans tend to kick in too late -- and the preference for monetary intervention over fiscal policy is hard to explain on the stump.
For the most part, Republican presidential candidates are not addressing wealthy voters on the stump; they are not addressing professional conservatives; they are not addressing upper-income voters who've spent time assimilating the intellectual case for a conservative
economic response.
Compounding maters, the Republican brand is no longer synonymous with fiscal discipline -- no brand is, really -- and attempts to make that attribute paramount are, again, probably more likely to please the Pro-Cons than satiate the concerns of the real-life cons(ervatives) who can read Stephen Moore with one hand and feel tremors with the other because they can't afford the mortgage.
Responses vary. Mitt Romney is optimistic. "**Every time i see things get scary, I put aside fear and say, aha is this a buying opportunity." Along with the usual corporate rate cuts, he has not ruled out additional government spending. He seems to have an inner force that directs him to assess problems and solve them. With health care in Massachusetts, he seems to have come to terms with a balance between pragmatism and political ideology, and he has sacrificed the former for the latter -- arguably a good thing. (He also wants to reduce taxation on investment, which would arguably increase savings, which is kind of the opposite of a stimulus package.)
Whipping out a tax cut, as Rudy Giuliani does, measuring it, and then bragging about it could easily be seen as cartoonish and one-dimensional. As in -- he's a guy who doesn't hang around with people who can't afford their mortgages; moreover, his instinct is to punish and instruct, rather than to help; and I'm kind of looking for a way out of this mess, right now, and not at the person who'll wave the biggest tax cut in front of my face and proclaim that an economic plan. There is more to Giuliani's economic vision than this, but he has a tough time communicating it.
Fred Thompson exemplified conservative toughness, and his economic policy was roundly praised by those who professionally test economic policies for their conservativeness, but, alas, he is out of the race.
John McCain communicates well on national security and is hit-or-miss on economic policy. He hhas admittedly, plainly, that he doesn't know as much about it as do the other candidates.
Who gets the better of the day?
Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) Endorses Obama
The chairman of the Homeland Sec. committee and implementer of the 9/11 Commission recommendation is on a conf. call right now throwing his support behind Sen. Barack Obama's candidacy.
"I looked at the field. I think your message resonates with a lot more of the American people," he said to Obama.
Romney's Latest: "Conservative Change" in Florida
The Fed Panics
Kind of getting the feeling that a three quarters of a point rate cut might wind up panicking the markets, rather than calming them.
January 21, 2008
Fertile In Myrtle
Clinton and Obama, two heavyweight boxers, touched their gloves AFTER they bashed each other's head in. Edwards was part-Mills Lane, regularly separating the combatants and sending them to their corners -- and part wrestling heel, interfering at random, scoring points when the others were busy focusing on personal grievances.
The headlines will be about suppressed heat between Clinton and Obama boiling over, althohttp://38.118.71.136/cgi-bin/mt/mt.cgi?__mode=view&_type=entry&id=35803&blog_id=49&saved_added=1
Fertile In Myrtle | Entries | Marc Ambinder | Movable Type Enterpriseugh that moment was more entertaining and informative.
(Both Clinton and Obama's campaigns are touting the exchange, for what it's worth.)
Once that was out of their systems...
The conversation tonight was almost about all the general election; who could voters trust? who could turn the page? who best represents the Democratic Party? who could beat John McCain?
"If Sen., McCain is the Republican nominee," Sen. Clinton said, "we know that we will have a general election about national security. I believe that of any one of us, I am better position and better able to take on John McCain or any Republican when it comes to protecting our national security and promoting America's interest in the world."
Obama "fundamentally disagrees with that." The "way we are going to take on a John McCain on national security...is somebody who can serve a strong contrast who can say, we've got to overcome the politics of fear in this country. As commander in chief, all of us would have responsibility to keep American safe, what I do believe is that we have to describe a new foreign policy that says, I will meet, not just with our friends but with our enemies."
Obama called Clinton's approach "the same fearmongering they've been engaged in since 9/11."
I could write that John Edwards debated as if he had the most to gain, but he always does that. He can't resist the parenthetical aside, which often undermines or obscures his argument. For example: when arguing that he was the most electable candidate in the field, more electable in rural areas outside the major cities, he just had to look back at Obama and Clinton and mention that, boy, not only was he NOT talking about race, he kind of felt weird as a white male being forced to explicitly deny having thought about race. The truth is that Edwards, representing white, working class males, would appeal to candidates who are less comfortable voting for black or women candidates. And by insisting that race has no place in the argument, he puts race into the argument, probably unintentionally.
Obama pointed out that he performed well in non-urban areas of Nevada, and, on the issue of faith -- "I am a proud Christian, and I think there have been times where our Democratic Party did not reach out as aggressively as we could to evangelicals."
Obama spent the first forty minutes of the debate defending policy. On the one hand, the more Obama debates policy, the less he has to argue that he has the substance to match Clinton. On that same hand, the debate was also helpful to Obama in that it gave him a chance to answer a month's worth of charges from his opponents...charges he answered more or less effectively...certainly effective enough to the voter unfamiliar with the ins and outs of policy. But for the five minute period when both he and Clinton seemed disinclined to filter their facial expressions and excited utterances -- an exchange where Obama looked too hot -- his annoyance and anger overwhelmed his normal solitude, and Angry Obama is never as attractive as cool Obama. Their sound-bite-generating bandinage a wash; a tie goes to the runner, here, and if Clinton is the frontrunner, Obama is the runner, here.
Clinton and Obama had a fascinating argument about corporate lobbyists, trial lawyers and campaign finance. It probably amused John McCain.
For the second debate in a row, both Obama and Clinton went out of their way to insist that the Democratic Party is not divided by race and that the debates of the past two weeks were, political, yes, but not damaging. We will see.
So who won?
Obama really didn't have to show up, but he did -- taking nothing for granted. A passel of tough questions were posed, and he seemed to nail just about every one of them.
John Edwards is a spectacular debater, but in thinking fast, he often undermines the flow of his arguments by pointing out how great he is. Still, he more than proved that he cannot be ignored and still is a stronger candidate than the recent primary contests would suggest.
Hillary Clinton was still Unplugged. I kind of like HRC Unplugged.
Civility
When the candidates are standing up at podiums, they tear into each other like rabid dogs.
When they're seated in those hideous orange chairs, they're friendly, solicitous and generous.
Mixing It Up
The candidates tend to explain their policy decisions using short tern and the lingua franca of the Senate, which makes it hard to referee these disputes. So the candidates who refuse to jump in usually wind up looking better. And John Edwards is looking better.
BTW: this is the first time Obama's "present" votes have been brought up in a Democratic debate...something the Clinton campaign has been flaying for months.
Obama is under the heaviest scrutiny tonight... Edwards seems him as the thing standing between himself and Clinton.... Clinton wants to start a longer conversation in the Feb. 5 states about whether Obama is all hat and no cattle.
Bet Edwards Will Win The Focus Groups Again
He is dominating the debate so far...extremely well informed on the subjects he's being asked, and he seems to be relishing his role as the third wheel...because the two fighting children are forced to listen to him.
Again, on points, he seems to win these debates.
Why don't people who like Edwards after watching debates vote for him?
Obama Takes His Gloves Off
Obama and Clinton jab back and forth....arguing, talking over each other...
Barack, Barack, Barack, Hillary, Hillary, Hillary
Obama: "You just said that I complimented the Republican ideas. That is not true. Ronald Reagan is a transformative political figure because he was able to get Democrats to vote against their economic interests..."
Then this:
"When I was out there working in the streets, seeing people losing their jobs, you were a corporate lawyer sitting on the board of Wal-Mart."
Obama: "I did say we've got to be thinking in the same transformative way.."
Clinton:
"I was fighting when you were practicing law and representing ...Rezko...the slum-landlord in Chicago."
Edwards; "This kind of squabbling: how many people are going to get health care because of this?"
Clinton Responds To Obama On The War
"Your record and what you say does matter. When it comes to a lot of the issues that are important in this race. It is difficult to understand what Obama says because as soon as he is confronted about it, he says, that's not what I really meant."
...
"You gave a great speech in 2002 opposing the war in Iraq... that was not a point of our criticism...by the next year, the speech was off your website...by the next year, you were voting to fund the war time after time after time."
Way To Sound Like A Regular Person, Sen. Obama
"There are a set of assertions made by Sen. Clinton and her husband that are not factually accurate."
No, Rep. Joe Wilson didn't forget to endorse John McCain last week.
In point of act, his endorsement, which McCain will receive tomorrow in person in South Carolina, is more of a testament to the Republican establishment's beginning to coalesce around McCain, and it's arguably more important now -- right now -- when McCain is making his argument to conservatives -- than it would have been in the midst of South Carolina.
Rudy Drills In On Taxes
So says the Giuliani policy shop in an escalation of their campaign to drive a clean contrast with Sen. John McCain.
Brian Rogers, a McCain spokesman, responded:
Rudy Giuliani has a record of opposing tax relief. He actually endorsed liberal Democrat Mario Cuomo for governor because he opposed George Pataki’s tax cut plans, which Giuliani said at the time were too large. He also left Mayor Bloomberg with a fiscal mess, including a budget deficit of over $2 billion. That’s not fiscal responsibility.
It's hard to figure out, in an era of deficit spending and earmarks, what a fiscal conservative actually is. To the extent that John McCain opposed the first Bush tax cut and expressed mildly populist reasons for doing so, that's kind of a strike against him for those who want absolute purity on the issue. Rudy Giuliani's record is no less opaque, though, and in politics, it's not very easy to create a contrast where none really exists.
Contemplating this fight at a different level, Giuliani's playing bean-bag politics, and McCain is playing with dodgeball. Doesn't his argument right now -- I'm ready to be president -- render any specific attacks against him fairly harmless. Taxes didn't work as an argument against Mitt Romney; they haven't really hurt McCain elsewhere. Indeed, the only state where McCain's argument played against him was in Michigan, where Mitt Romney's burst of optimism trumped McCain's sociopolitical realism.
Fred Thompson.....?
There's no official word from Fred Thompson's campaign about when or if the candidate will drop out.
Several Thompson associates have been led to expect a formal announcement of sorts in Washington, D.C. as early as tomorrow.
We will see.
Rudy, Romney Release Spanish Language TV Ads
Some lessons from the Democratic race so far....
For enough Democrats, Clinton represents enough change... Obama represents more change, certainly, but the perfect isn't the enemy of the good when there are other factors to consider.
Organization matters. Obama seems to have won Iowa because he had months to do hundreds of rallies and perform his special brand of magic in person; his campaign spent a lot of money per voter (and per young voter, in particular); he simply out-hustled her in a state where hustling matters.
The biggest evidence for this interpretation is that he did everything in New Hampshire he did in Iowa, but at much less of a magnitude; a state that was arguably more favorable to him demographically (a highly educated, wealthy Dem electorate) proved resistant because he did not have the same time to wear down their resistances. In other words -- to get enough to buy a real change message in this age of skepticism takes a lot of time and energy, and he did not have it in New Hampshire.
Experience matters. In 2003, experience, and the lack of a well-funded alternative, carried John Kerry through New Hampshire, through a loss in South Carolina, all the way to the nomination. What we called "momentum" turned out to be "no clear, acceptable alternative." In 2008, the Democrats do have an acceptable, well-funded alternative, albeit one with a transformative message. Is there enough time in California, Alabama, Georgia, New York, Arizona, Missouri.. to do what he did in Iowa?
Also: the anti-war energy in the Democratic Party, first kindled in 2002, has dissapated as a political force. Democrats still favor a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq, but enough time has elapsed since 2002 to allow the strong feelings to attenuate, and the party has turned inward since then. Iraq is no more than an applause line right now.
** The swing constituency seems to be college educated women, who have a complicated relationship to Hillary Clinton and the babyboomers. Iowa won these women in Iowa, according to estimates, and Clinton won them (narrowly) in New Hampshire. They vote in large numbers in major Feb. 5 states.
** Perestroika works! Hillary Clinton's new habit of three press avails per week, one-on-one interviews with network correspondents on requests, answering questions after every speech -- it seems to have loosened up her press corps a bit, she certainly seems very comfortable doing it, and her accessibility has allowed the Clinton campaign to make sure that Clinton drives the daily headlines.
January 20, 2008
The Dirty Caucuses
Jon Ralston:
Hey, guys, with this day-after tit for tat, can this be over now?
Clinton won; Obama lost. Could Obamaites stop with the sour grapes, and
could the Clintonites try for the gracious winner act?
Ok, but there were massive organizational problems with the caucuses in your state, and someone ought to be held accountable for them.
Obama: Clinton Won Dirty.... Clinton Campaign: Obama Lost Dirty
One thing is clear: Nevada has to figure out how to do a better job next time.
Barack Obama's campaign is accusing Hillary Clinton's of deliberately violating caucus laws to prevent late-arriving Obama voters from participating.
Obama's campaign counsel, Bob Bauer, said: ""There was a clear disenfranchising effect. We want a full review of this."
He said the campaign received more than 300 complaints from folks who were not allowed into caucus sessions even though they had been in line to register by 11:30, the stated time. The campaign obtained what it said was a copy of Hillary Clinton's caucus manual and what it said were misleading instructions to caucus chairs.
One entry says: "11:30: Deadline for registering (or standing in line to register) to participate in the Caucus. And then: "11:30: Caucus chair closes door."
Nevada Democratic Party rules say: "In order to participate in the Nevada State Democratic Party Caucuses, attendees MUST be in line, or signed in, by noon. At noon, Presidential Preference Cards should be given to any person in line, and after that point, no Presidential Preference Cards should be given to any new arrivals, as they will not be allowed to caucus."
Clinton's campaign just held a conference call alleging that Obama precinct captains engaged in the same type of shenanigans. "As a result, many of our supporters were harassed and intimidated when they tried to register at the caucus," said Robbie Mook, Clinton's Nevada state director.
Mook said the team had discovered "numerous instances of miscounting" to Obama's benefit.
Clinton senior adviser David Barnhart said he was at the Mirage at-large caucus heart and "witnessed...voter intimidation." He said that many union workers told him that they would not be given permission to take a break from their jobs and caucus unless they voted for Obama. He said one woman was told by supervisor that she would not be given preferential shifts unless she voted for Obama.
Barnhart said that before the caucus began, Obama's team formed a "gauntlet" and tried to "intimidate" voters as they entered the caucus room.
Mook said the Obama campaign's allegations were "completely false, and frankly, pretty desperate."
Obama At The Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta
Some pretty powerful speech-making:
And yet, if we are honest with ourselves, we must admit that none of our hands are entirely clean. If we’re honest with ourselves, we’ll acknowledge that our own community has not always been true to King’s vision of a beloved community.
We have scorned our gay brothers and sisters instead of embracing them. The scourge of anti-Semitism has, at times, revealed itself in our community. For too long, some of us have seen immigrants as competitors for jobs instead of companions in the fight for opportunity.
Every day, our politics fuels and exploits this kind of division across all races and regions; across gender and party. It is played out on television. It is sensationalized by the media. And last week, it even crept into the campaign for President, with charges and counter-charges that served to obscure the issues instead of illuminating the critical choices we face as a nation.
So let us say that on this day of all days, each of us carries with us the task of changing our hearts and minds. The division, the stereotypes, the scape-goating, the ease with which we blame our plight on others – all of this distracts us from the common challenges we face – war and poverty; injustice and inequality. We can no longer afford to build ourselves up by tearing someone else down. We can no longer afford to traffic in lies or fear or hate. It is the poison that we must purge from our politics; the wall that we must tear down before the hour grows too late.
Because if Dr. King could love his jailor; if he could call on the faithful who once sat where you do to forgive those who set dogs and fire hoses upon them, then surely we can look past what divides us in our time, and bind up our wounds, and erase the empathy deficit that exists in our hearts.
There is a young, twenty-three year old white woman named Ashley Baia who organizes for our campaign in Florence, South Carolina. She’s been working to organize a mostly African-American community since the beginning of this campaign, and the other day she was at a roundtable discussion where everyone went around telling their story and why they were there.
And Ashley said that when she was nine years old, her mother got cancer. And because she had to miss days of work, she was let go and lost her health care. They had to file for bankruptcy, and that’s when Ashley decided that she had to do something to help her mom.
She knew that food was one of their most expensive costs, and so Ashley convinced her mother that what she really liked and really wanted to eat more than anything else was mustard and relish sandwiches. Because that was the cheapest way to eat.
She did this for a year until her mom got better, and she told everyone at the roundtable that the reason she joined our campaign was so that she could help the millions of other children in the country who want and need to help their parents too.
So Ashley finishes her story and then goes around the room and asks everyone else why they’re supporting the campaign. They all have different stories and reasons. Many bring up a specific issue. And finally they come to this elderly black man who’s been sitting there quietly the entire time. And Ashley asks him why he’s there. And he does not bring up a specific issue. He does not say health care or the economy. He does not say education or the war. He does not say that he was there because of Barack Obama. He simply says to everyone in the room, “I am here because of Ashley.”
By itself, that single moment of recognition between that young white girl and that old black man is not enough. It is not enough to give health care to the sick, or jobs to the jobless, or education to our children.
But it is where we begin. It is why the walls in that room began to crack and shake.
And if they can shake in that room, they can shake in Atlanta.
And if they can shake in Atlanta, they can shake in Georgia.
And if they can shake in Georgia, they can shake all across America. And if enough of our voices join together; we can bring those walls tumbling down. The walls of Jericho can finally come tumbling down. That is our hope – but only if we pray together, and work together, and march together.
Brothers and sisters, we cannot walk alone.
In the struggle for peace and justice, we cannot walk alone.
In the struggle for opportunity and equality, we cannot walk alone
In the struggle to heal this nation and repair this world, we cannot walk alone.
So I ask you to walk with me, and march with me, and join your voice with mine, and together we will sing the song that tears down the walls that divide us, and lift up an America that is truly indivisible, with liberty, and justice, for all. May God bless the memory of the great pastor of this church, and may God bless the United States of America.
Common Sense, From Nevada
## Hillary Clinton probably won the "popular vote" by a larger margin than six percentage points ... because Obama probably received the lion's share of re-allocated votes from Edwards supporters in non-viable precincts.
## The news media seems to think that this means that Clinton won Nevada.
## Based on the demographic/turn-out sensitive delegate allocation formula, Obama won 13 delegates to Clinton's 12. This process is neither democratic, in that the power of one person's vote differs from another's, nor republican, in that the person who is preferred by the largest number of Nevadans can, in the end, not receive the majority of the delegates.
The Obama campaign also points out that because the nomination can only be secured if a majority of national delegates are accumulated, it matters who wins the delegates. Ok. But zero delegates have actually been pledged... so if, by the Obama campaign's own definition, the winner of Nevada ought to be determined by delegates, we'll have to wait until April 19 to see how the national convention delegates are apportioned. If Obama and Clinton are still in the race at that point, then those delegates are pledged to Obama.
## Unless we're headed to a brokered convention, Nevada's delegates will probably not matter.
## So is the Democratic primary a fight over delegates? At the lowest level of abstraction, yes. But at a higher level of abstraction, it's about expectations; it's about the marriage of popular vote performances by the winner and the will of the candidate who does not receive the support of a majority.
## Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns have accused each other of playing dirty; there's no question that the party machine, mostly in the corner of Hillary Clinton, had an incentive to help her, and that the Culinary Union bosses had an incentive to help Obama. There is no evidence, as of yet, of any organized effort to disenfranchise anyone.
## Expect trench warfare until Feb 5., if not beyond.
January 19, 2008
McCain Wins
McCain!
Why?
(1) Five years of hard work by McCain, consultants Richard Quinn and John Weaver in upstate South Carolina....the endorsement of the Greenville, SC state senator...apologizing to Falwell...
(2) demographics: growth in Charleston, Midlands and Horry county...
(3) The surge worked...and McCain stayed in the news...
(4) Rick Davis slims down the campaign, keeps staff in SC, but focuses on NH
(5) Thompson saps conservative votes from Huckabee...
(6) Romney's decision to pull out at the last minute...Giuliani's decision to pull out earlier...
(7) Veterans, enough Republicans and independents...
** More from exits, courtesy of CBS News: McCain, Huckabee tie for self-ID'd Republicans; McCain wins independents...Huckabee wins native-born South Carolinians...and evangelicals (41 to 28)....
***Thompson prepares to exit race...."While we're waiting, I wanted to come hear and speak to you from my heart...to tell you how much I appreciate you and how Jeri and I are blessed to have friends like you... I want to thank Jeri, who's been my strong right arm...We will always be bound by a close bond, because we have traveled a very special road together for a very special purpose. It's never been about me. It's never even been about you. It's been about our country...Our country needs our party to step up...but we need to remember that we need to deserve to lead...Federalism underpins everything we do"
"I'll try to simplify - the 25 national convention delegates will be apportioned later. What networks and wire services are doing is extrapolating to national convention if all remains the same. Obama did very well outside Clark County and delegates are apportioned by congressional district - hence the delegate advantage. But this is all about perception now and Clinton will use the win going into SC and Super Tuesday. She also will try to energize Hispanics against Obama by using that Unite HERE Spanish-language ad that ran at the end. Clinton won Nevada, and Obama's claim of an advantage of one among delegates that amount to a tiny fraction of delegates will only matter at a brokered convention."
Clinton Campaign Strikes Back...
... at critics (like MSNBC's Chris Matthews), by sending around a compilation of expectation setting quotations. Two of them:
MSNBC’s Chris Matthews – ‘It just seems to me if Hillary Clinton wins this one… she’s back in the lead big-time.’ “It just seems to me if Hillary Clinton wins this one, after all the hoopla and hopes in some quarters about Barack Obama winning two in a row… that she’s back in the lead big-time.” [MSNBC Hardball, 1/18/08]
Obama National Feild Director Temo Figueroa 'The Nevada election is going to come down to: Whoever gets the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union, more than likely, is going to win Nevada' [Politico, 1/10/08]
By the way -- the AP, so far, still reports that Obama won 12 to Clinton's 13.
Obama Won More Delegates Than Clinton In Nevada?
Obama Campaign Cries Foul
Ah, democracy at work. Hillary Clinton was the clear preference of a plurality of Nevada Democrats, but Barack Obama won more delegates -- 13, to Clinton's 12, Obama's campaign says.
What's a win? The Obama campaign is trying to spin Nevada as a dirty win for the Clintons. (You can imagine this line from Obama: "Do you want dirty politics? Then vote for Hillary If you want honest politics, vote for me.")
Alternatively, they're going to point out that the Clinton campaign has said many times that the nomination is, at its roots, a delegate contest. The idea here is that Obama did well outside of Clark County and in the rural areas of the state.
Obama received the same number of delegates in New Hampshire as Clinton. But Clinton has more "superdelegates" on board and an overall delegate lead.
Obama Manager Accuses Clintons of Widespread Dirty Politics
David Plouffe, in a succinct statement appended to a released quotation from his boss, Barack Obama, said the Obama campaign was investigating more than 200 reporters of irregularities in Nevada.
“We currently have reports of over 200 separate incidents of trouble at caucus sites, including doors being closed up to thirty minutes early, registration forms running out so people were turned away, and ID being requested and checked in a non-uniform fashion. This is in addition to the Clinton campaign’s efforts to confuse voters and call into question the at-large caucus sites which clearly had an affect on turnout at these locations. These kinds of Clinton campaign tactics were part of an entire week’s worth of false, divisive, attacks designed to mislead caucus-goers and discredit the caucus itself."
Plouffe asks Nevadans to call a toll-free number, (866) 675-2008, and report any other problems.
Obama, for his part, said he "ran an honest, uplifting campaign in Nevada that focused on the real problems Americans are facing, a campaign that appealed to people’s hopes instead of their fears."
A Unique Clinton Memo
To: Interested Parties
From: Patti Solis-Doyle and Mark Penn
Date: Saturday, January 19, 2008
RE: Huge Victory in Nevada!
** Campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle tells us: "This was a great win. There is a lot of work left to do. We're looking forward to working for every vote in the coming primaries and caucuses."
** Clinton wins Hispanics...64% ... good sign for Feb. 5 states...
** Clinton won six of nine at-large precincts...Jon Ralston: At Wynn precinct, HRC and Obama tie on first ballot...wins Clark county by 12%...Turnout exceeds 100,000
** HRC's Macker on MSNBC: "This is a huge win for us. Coming in with probably a five point disadvantage..."
** Obama adviser Susan Rice: "We're still the insurgent campaign..."
** Exit polls for SC starting to leak online, but I won't post them here...
Exit poll data, courtesy of CBS News and CBS News.com. (For more updates, click here.)
** Economy is top issue (48%)...followed by health care and war on Iraq..
** 28% were union members -- divided vote b/w Clinton and Obama
** Clinton wins women (52 to 30) AND ties men...
** More valued change than experience, but of those who valued experience, NINE of TEN backed HRC, while FIVE in TEN change-preferences backed Obama
Nevada / South Carolina Live Wire
Romney Wins Nevada Caucuses
CBS ESTIMATES THAT CLINTON WINS ....
** Dems: Obama, Clinton run strong early on...Clinton leading Clark County with 9% in....
....Romney looks "forward" to Florida...will run on "economy"....has 3 golds and 2 silvers and the delegate lead...all his wins come with delegates. AND a *but*....and McCain campaign sends around video of NBC's O'Donnell calling Romney's win "in name only"..... (She is wrong: Romney wins delegates. How's that "in name only," NBC?)
** Edwards campaign says that a supporter went to a caucus at Charles Silvesti Middle School...and is told outside that Edwards isn't viable.
..
Obama's manager sends out memo lowering expectations...says Clinton campaign has engaged in "systematic effort" to discredit the caucuses...
Our hope is that today’s caucus comes off without a hitch and as many people as possible participate, however we remain concerned that the tactics of the Clinton Campaign and their allies in recent days have confused voters and could lower participation.
** Bill Clinton alleges voter intimidation. Per an ABC pool report:
Well, we were worried about people, even more people, being prevented from voting if they were voting for Hillary. Because yesterday Chelsea and I were going through one of the hotels here someone was going behind us saying if you vote for Hillary we are going to give you a job assignment that keeps you from going to the caucus. And haven’t sent tactics like that in decades.
So here are the delegate allocation formulas for those special, at-large precinct caucuses today on the Las Vegas Strip.
Basically, can get the same number of delegates with a turnout of 400 as you can with 800. That cuts against the whole premise that the delegate allocation here is based on turnout for THIS caucus since there is no history.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus does not exceed 400, divide the total number of attendees by 5. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 1 – 80.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 401 and 600, divide the total number of attendees by 8. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 50 – 75.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 601 and 800, divide the total number of attendees by 10. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 60 – 80.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 801 and 1400, divide the total number of attendees by 15. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 53 – 93.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 1401 and 2000, divide the total number of attendees by 20. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 70 – 100.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 2001 and 3000, divide the total number of attendees by 30. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 67 – 100.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus is between 3001 and 4000, divide the total number of attendees by 35. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will range from 86 – 114.
• If the total number of Democrats in attendance at the At-Large Precinct Caucus exceeded 4000, divide the total number of attendees by 50. Based on attendance, the total number of delegates in these At-Large Precincts will be at least 80.
January 18, 2008
Martinez to Endorse McCain?
Word from Florida is that Sen. Mel Martinez will finally be able to do what he's been wanting to do for a while: endorse Sen. John McCain.
A joint appearance is on tap for Monday in South Florida, according to two Florida Republican sources, although Martinez is under pressure from GOP fundraisers to hold off, and he may back out at the last moment..
Martinez, like McCain, was on the side of Pres. Bush during the immigration debate in Congress, and only in Florida -- after South Carolina -- would such an endorsement help McCain politically.
No comment from official McCain sources.
But Magic Johnson Was An Awesome Rookie...
Moments after I posted a link to a new Hillary Clinton radio ad in South Carolina featuring Magic Johnson implying that Obama is a "hyped...rookie..." several Obama spokesfolks responded with a ream of statistics and video clips pointing out how Johnson was one of the awesomest rookies ever.... so which lucky Obama researcher got to spend time surfing the sports sites today?
Magic Johnson Became The First Rookie In 11 Years To Start In The NBA All Star Game And The First Rookie To Win The NBA Finals MVP. “In 77 games Johnson's numbers mirrored those of his days at Michigan State (18.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 7.3 apg). He became the first rookie to start in an NBA All-Star Game since Elvin Hayes 11 years earlier.” Johnson also became “the first rookie ever to win the Finals MVP Award.” [NBA.com, Accessed: 12/18/07]
Johnson’s MVP-Winning Performance in 1980 Playoffs Game 6 Is “The Stuff of Legend,” Saved the Team From a Hometown Loss When The Star Abdul-Jabbar Was Injured. “In the 1980 NBA Finals against the Philadelphia 76ers, Johnson's performance in the series-clinching sixth game was the stuff of legend. Abdul-Jabbar was sidelined with a badly sprained ankle sustained during his 40-point effort in Game 5. Up 3-2, the Lakers could wrap things up on the 76ers' home court.
Enter Johnson, the 20-year-old rookie. Assuming Abdul-Jabbar's position at center, Johnson sky-hooked and rebounded the Lakers to victory with 42 points, 15 boards, seven assists and three steals. He even jumped for the opening tap. Johnson became the first rookie ever to win the Finals MVP Award. The stunning effort exemplified his uncanny ability to do whatever the Lakers needed in order to win. In the Los Angeles Times, Westhead said of his amazing rookie: ‘We all thought he was a movie-star player, but we found out he wears a hard hat. It's like finding a great orthopedic surgeon who can also operate a bulldozer.’” [NBA.com, Accessed: 12/18/07]
Watch some of that famous game here...
The Democrats Spar Over Reagan's Legacy
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have spent a few days sparring over over Ronald Reagan and the conservative movement.
Obama has said this before, in different words: Here's the original remark, from a meeting editorialists in Reno:
“I think Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not and in a way that Bill Clinton did not. He put us on a fundamentally different path because the country was ready for it.”
To which John Edwards responded: "I would never use Ronald Reagan as an example of change," and Hillary Clinton said today:
"I have to say, you know, my leading opponent the other day said that he thought the Republicans had better ideas than Democrats the last ten to fifteen years. That's not the way I remember the last ten to fifteen years."
The campaigns upped the ante with dueling surrogate calls, and Bill Burton, Obama's silver-tongued spokesman, told reporters:
"“It’s hard to take Hillary Clinton’s latest attack seriously when she’s the one who supported George Bush’s war in Iraq, the most damaging Republican idea of our generation. While others were triangulating and poll-testing their positions, Senator Obama has been fighting for progressive ideals for over two decades,”
I’m reminded of a conversation I had with Obama’s best friend, Marty Nesbitt, last summer.
Nesbitt told me about a bull session a few years back where Obama told him that among the political figures he admitted was Ronald Reagan.
“When he told me that about Ronald Reagan, I said , what?” Nesbitt told me. “I was like every other Democrat. But Barack told me, no, he really had something that inspired the company and brought it together. I may disagree with him on policy, but he was what American needed at that moment in history. “
Nesbitt was using the point to illustrate why Obama decided to run so early in his political
career. Like Reagan, for Obama, “personal traits intersected with the historical moment.”
BTW: turns out that HRC thinks Reagan was a great president too.
Clinton "Brings The Magic" To South Carolina
A new radio ad in South Carolina from Sen. Hillary Clinton.... Magic Johnson implies that Barack Obama is a "hyped" "rookie" who needs more seasoning. Check it out:
This is Magic Johnson. On the court and in life, successful leadership comes from hard work and experience. That’s why I’m endorsing Hillary Clinton for President. We have great candidates this year, but I believe only Hillary is a proven leader, with 35 years’ experience dealing with challenges facing America. Are you looking for better jobs, universal health care, better treatment for veterans, opportunities for your children? Then you want Hillary Clinton for President. My rookie year, we won our first game on a last second shot. I was so hyped. But the captain of my team said, “take it easy rookie, it’s a long season, it’s a long road to the championship.” He was right. Winning comes from years of hard work and preparation. Whether it’s winning championships or a President who can lead us back to greatness, I’ll always want the most prepared and experienced person leading my team. That’s why I’m asking you to join me in voting for Hillary Clinton for President.
Romney's Sons Play A Joke On Him
Latest South Carolina Poll
Fox News's latest:
(500 voters, +/- 4%)
Insider Advantage, a Georgia-based firm, notices a last-minute Huckabee surge:
There's word that ex-President Bill Clinton will spend all of next week in South Carolina... though it's not clear whether Sen. Hillary Clinton will spend every day here....
This Is Cute
Endorsement Update
Two interesting endorsements this a.m.
Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-CA) endorses Barack Obama:
"Since I began serving in Congress five years ago, I have seen the difficulty in bringing fresh ideas to Washington, DC, and to our country. Sadly, great talent and ideas are too often dismissed because those who possessed them were seen as too idealistic, too young, or too unwilling to submit to the same old Washington way of doing things. Senator Obama is the candidate who can change that culture by mobilizing a new generation to get involved in the civic life of our country. He is reinvigorating America by showing us that we all have a stake -- and a say -- in our democracy and our country's future.
And John McCain was just endorsed by the co-founder of National Right To Life, Dr. Carolyn Gerster.
"John McCain is the most qualified candidate and has a consistent and principled pro-life record," said Dr. Gerster. "He has spent his career standing up for human rights and he will continue to do so as president. John McCain will nominate judges who understand the sanctity of human life, and firmly believes that courts should not be legislating from the bench. John McCain has the conviction, strengths, and experience to serve as commander in chief from day one and that is why he has my vote."
Romney Takes A Leno Break
He'll fly to Burbank and appear on the writer-less show tonight...
Check Out This Ad... Running Throughout South Carolina
Sen. Lindsey Graham is being primaried by RNC member Buddy Witherspoon. Witherspoon is running a very harsh right now on spot and cable throughout the state: it literally features about twenty seconds of pictures of Hispanic people and Spanish-accented voices saying “Lindsey Graham, Lindsey Graham.”
Thought For The Morning
It will be interesting to see whether Republican candidates will publicly disagree with President Bush if there are items in his stimulus package that they object to… any direct government transfers to individuals, for example.
The Table: Michael Bloomberg
Is he for real? What's his deal? Can he spend his own money on a vice presidential run?
January 17, 2008
CBS News Exclusive: Ad: Hillary Is "Shameless"
CBS News has obtained the negative radio ad against Hillary Clinton.... Unite Here is the author... it's in Spanish. Listen to it here.
McCain's Latest Ad In South Carolina
(The McCain does, in fact, send reporters a YouTube link of their ads... but my spam filter likes to eat those e-mails, so apologies to J.H. and B.R.)
Fred Thompson's 60 Second Closing Argument
UNITE Here Divides Itself From The Clintons In Nevada
This is a translation of the harshest ad of the cycle on the Democratic side. It's on Spanish-language radio in Nevada, being run by Unite-Here, the parent union of the Culinary Workers' Local 266. Both parent and child have endorsed Sen. Barack Obama:
"Hillary Clinton does not respect our people. Hillary Clinton supporters went to court to prevent working people to vote this Saturday – that is an embarrassment. Hillary Clinton supporters want to prevent people from voting in their workplace on Saturday. This is unforgivable! Hillary Clinton is shameless. Hillary Clinton should not allow her friends to attack our people’s right to vote this Saturday. This is unforgivable, there is no respect. Senator Obama is defending our right to vote. Senator Obama wants our votes. He respects our votes, our community, and our people. Senator Obama’s campaign slogan is “Sí Se Puede, Sí se puede.” (“Yes We Can”). Vote for a president that respects us, and that respects our right to vote. Obama for president, “Si Se Puede” (“Yes We Can”)."
Here's what's striking. Unite-Here is a powerful national labor union. Hillary Clinton has as good a chance as Barack Obama at being the next Democratic nominee, and then, if the nominee, a good shot at being the next president. And while it would behoove anyone to frown on UNITE Here if they decided to run an ad touting Obama or even an advertisement disputing Hillary Clinton's position on a policy, the union has decided to directly attack Clinton's character.
It's a sign that while the Democratic Party is more united than ever, the union movement is riven by discord, and many of its major reform efforts have failed. There have been many more inter-and-intra union spats this cycle. My guess is that arguments about immigration, trade, ethics and the economy are being fought by proxy, with Obama, Clinton and Edwards standing in for archetypes of where the union movement ought to go.
Note that the plaintiffs who challenged the caucus's at large precincts were members of the state education association, an affiliate of the National Education Association. Another teachers' union, the American Federation of Teachers, did not intervene in the dispute and has run only positive ads on Clinton's behalf. In New Hampshire, an affiliate of AFSCME, the public employees' union which has endorsed Hillary Clinton, ran radio ads criticizing Barack Obama's health care plan, ads the Obama campaign finds misleading. And several Service Employees state affiliates and the Carpenters' union funded a pro-John Edwards campaign in Iowa.
The Latest GOP Television Ads
1. John McCain launches an ad in SC called "Character in Spades." Unfortunately, the McCain campaign has a habit of not sending around YouTube links, so I'm just going to be churlish and provide the link. The ad, oddly defensive, seems to be designed to respond to that fringe anti-McCain Vietnam protest group whose claims are receiving almost no attention at all.
2. Mitt Romney's first television ad in Florida since he went dark there two weeks ago.
"I keep hearing the same thing, that Washington is broken.I hear the people say they think we deserve health care for all our citizens, but not government health care and that hasn’t been done. They say we ought to be able to get a reduction in the burden on the middle class, and that hasn’t been done. They say we ought to solve the immigration problem in this country. It hasn’t been done. If you send the same people back to Washington just to sit in different chairs, nothing will happen. I will change Washington. I will take it apart and put it back together. I know how to bring change. I’m Mitt Romney and I approved this message."
3. And -- did you know that George Will once said something kind about Rudy Giuliani? Here's the latest Giuliani ad in Florida, which seeks to make a subtle distinction with Mitt Romney on taxes and is a preview of sorts for the type of fight we're sure to see in a week or so. The ad concludes with a quote from Romney himself, who said Giuliani has a "great record" of cutting taxes.
Nevada's At-Large Precincts Ruled Legal
Sorry to be late with this, although you Twitter subscribers of mine would have seen it earlier... a Nevada judge has upheld the at-large precincts drawn for the benefit of the Obama-choosing Culinary Workers -- nine out of 520 -- and it's not clear whether the plaintiffs -- four of whom voted for the caucus plan in the first place -- will appeal. (The at-large precincts account for a bit over 6% of the total delegate counts.)
Per Obama spokesman Bill Burton:
"We're glad that the Nevada court upheld the Nevada Democratic Party's caucus plan which encourages voter participation. While the Clinton campaign clearly believed that the voices of workers should be silenced in service of their perceived political interest, they enjoyed a twenty five point lead two months ago and have much of the party establishment in their camp."
Hillary Clinton's campaign just released a disapproving statement:
"Make no mistake --the current system that prohibits some shift workers from being able to participate, while allowing others to do so, would seem to benefit other campaigns. More importantly it is unfair. The Obama campaign has been clear in its belief that whoever wins the culinary union endorsement will win Nevada. We will leave it up to the people of Nevada to make that decision."
Mitt Romney V. Glen Johnson
You political insiders will like this. The rest of you can ignore it.
Huckabee Seeks $300K Offering Immediately
From a campaign e-mail:
I’m writing you as we travel between events here in South Carolina. This is important, so please take a minute now to hear me out.
Chip Saltsman, my national campaign manager and I just reviewed our final get out the vote plan. While we feel it is a strong plan, we have isolated one area that needs strengthening and immediate improvement. We want to increase our voter identification and turnout calls and the price tag for these additional calls is $170,000.
Will you make an immediate contribution of $15, $25, $50, $100, $250 or even $500 today online to help us fund this effort?
We have set a goal of raising this money by tonight at midnight so we can ramp up our calls in time for the South Carolina primary. If your financial support comes in after this deadline we won't be able to invest it in time for the South Carolina primary.
Clinton To Campaign In Georgia
She's going to attend the party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Atlanta on Jan 30, according an e-mail just received from the state party.
McCain, Romney Offer Cattle Prods To The Economy
John McCain's we know about; Romney's will be unveiled in short order. (Remember: Fred Thompson thinks economic stimulus plans are kind of girly).
McCain would chop the corporate tax rate from 35% to 25% -- some sort of cut is common to all the Republicans. He'd allow a first year deduction of tech and equipment investments and give a 10% tax credit equal to the first 10% of the investment a company spends on R and D.
Interesting that McCain, while supporting an extension of the Bush tax cuts, does not list them in his plan.
Edwards Campaign Continues Media Tweaks
Yesterday, it was a press release complaining that Edwards didn't receive his fair share of coverage. Today, the campaign is trying to wound the media's sense of pride by pointing out that Frank Luntz's focus group preferred Edwards' debate performance.
Edwards has a point of sorts, although the campaign's verging on whiny about it. Edwards has a rationale to stay in the race if he keeps accumulating delegates, and as the only Southerner, has a shot to win some of the Feb. 5 contests.
But, if we were playing Jeopardy! and Edwards, Clinton and Obama were listed as the three choices, the question would be: "Who Is John Edwards?" (and why does he belong in this category?)
The Wizard Of Bain Capital
The Atlantic’s Joshua Green and Megan McArdle discuss the business experience of Mitt Romney. An Atlantic podcast.
Democrats Say Their Voters Are Being Urged To Show Up This Saturday
Carol Khare Fowler, the chairperson of the South Carolina Democratic Party, didn't think she'd have to hold a press conference to inform Democrats to vote in the Democratic primary.
But that was before party officials received queries from confused Democrats yesterday.
It seems that hundreds of them received phone messages urging them to show up THIS Saturday and vote, and that the Democratic and Republican primaries would both be held on the same day.
(Not true, of course: The GOP votes this Saturday and the Democrats vote next Saturday, and if you vote in one primary, you can't vote in another.)
Someone is playing a dirty trick.
A sign of the times: instead of following the roadshow to Nevada, the Romney campaign is keeping its chief counsel, Ben Ginsberg, in South Carolina in case there are any last minute shenanigans.
The X Game: Jan 17
It's hard to keep track of who is supposed to do well and who is supposed to do poorly -- and who is setting those expectations. So here is a handy guide... updated as warranted.
X = Expectations.
I'm A Twit(ter)
Falling prey to the fashion. Click on my new Twitter page to see which candidates I'm going to see today.
Obama's Latest Senator Endorsement
Sen. Barack Obama's fourth Senator in a week: it's Sen. Pat Leahy of Vermont.
