I was tempted to call this encounter a draw but I am mindful that there are no zero sum debates in presidential politics.
And twenty minutes of Iraq happened. And so I’ll give Obama the edge. Clinton was forced, for about 20 minutes, to recapitulate her vote on Iraq, over and over again. It was tough for her. She seemed to mire herself in the details of history.
Obama came into the debate moving up in polls across the country. His presence was, for the first 45 minutes or so, commanding. His opening statement was pitch perfect, segueing from praise for his rivals to the heart of his message. He ably made his case that this is a change election and the trajectory of change is steeper with Obama. His late-in-the-debate answer on Iraq was much better than hers.
Around 50 minutes in, the momentum swung towards Clinton. Obama was put on the defensive by Wolf Blitzer, who tried to goad him into calling Hillary Clinton unprincipled. Clinton, ah, found her voice, managing to show sympathy for undocumented workers and simultaneously pointing out how she took the effects of illegal immigration more seriously than Barack Obama. Clinton, in seeking a bipartisan solution, sounded more like Obama than Obama. Clinton’s answer plays well everywhere: among Latinos in California to conservative whites in Oklahoma.
I think Clinton’s goal tonight was to essentially humble herself before the Democratic Party that rebuked her so profoundly in South Carolina. Substance and niceness and graciousness were the order of the day. By her own standards she succeeded. She still doesn’t have a good answer to the dynasty question. I hear it a lot from voters on the trail. “We are all judged on our own merits” is a tautology.
Surprise: the time limits helped both Clinton and Obama. She had the time to turn every question back to her credentials and her projection of a humble, expansive, gracious character… she had the time to showcase her unmatched policy depth. Obama, who often chafes at soundbite answers, was able to speak in paragraphs and parentheticals and not have it count against him.
A few thoughts:
**Clinton mentioned John Edwards thrice, Obama mentioned him twice, but he also mentioned Bill Richardson, so, they’re equal.
** Also: Someone seemed to have planted the idea in Obama’s mind that he ought to start taking on John McCain, which he did, effectively.
** Obama really gives a great answer on the war, talking about the mindset differences between himself and Clinton and stressing the need for a date certain. He’s found a way to create daylight between himself and Clinton on withdrawing from Iraq.
** Watching the debate from the perspective of a Democrat, it’s easy to see why the party is so enthusiastic about its two candidate finalists.
I'll be Twittering tonight's debate, and can follow along right here.
Subjects that I hope Wolf Blitzer will ask about:
(a) Bill Clinton's sketchy Kazakhstan uranium / donor deal...as reported by the New York Times and given a full story by the producers of NBC Nightly News.
(b) Barack Obama's support for legalizing marijuana...or least reports that he once favored that position.
(c) Obama's being labeled the most liberal senator by National Journal
It's like the Oscars, less the writers, the movies, the pageantry, the actors, the actresses, the directors, John Williams... ok, it's nothing like the Oscars. But the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood is a hell of a place to hold the final primary debate of the cycle.
Security is tight as a tick. Closed-off roads, FBI explosives experts, members of the Secret Service Uniformed Divisions, an LAPD airship, Dozens of armed guards and a platoon of police officers.
Thousands of cheering Obama supporters are packed on the sidewalk between Hollywood Boulevard and the theatre complex. CNN has set up giant screens outside so the fans can watch. Clinton supporters are outnumbered.
Contacted on January 30 to respond to Obama's scores in NJ's vote ratings, his campaign said that the liberal ranking belies the public support he has been receiving. "As Senator Obama travels across the country, and as we've seen in the early contests, he's the one candidate who's shown the ability to appeal to Republicans and the ability to appeal to independents," said campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki.
But she also said that it's important to note the differences between Obama and Clinton on key issues. "The Democratic Party needs to nominate someone who shows a clear contrast with where Republicans are, on issues like the war in Iraq and the economy and the influence of lobbyists on Washington," Psaki said. "One of the reasons he's received such strong support is because he's drawn the starkest contrast on those issues."
Asked whether the liberal ranking could be used against Obama in the campaign, Psaki said that voters appreciate that he is up front about his positions on issues, even if those positions don't line up with their own. "Part of the reason he's appealing to some Republicans and independents is, he has that authenticity," she said. "He's very clear from the beginning that we can't do this alone and we need to work across party lines and focus more on uniting than on dividing."
Asked about Clinton's relatively moderate placement in NJ's rankings, one of her campaign advisers responded, "Her voting record as a whole shows she takes a comprehensive, balanced approach toward policy. Senator Clinton looks at the broader picture. She tries to see the challenges from not only the blue-collar worker's face, but also the white-collar worker's, not only Wall Street but also Main Street, and from that tries to put together a policy that's best for America as a whole."
Robert Gibbs, Obama's communications director, said he doesn't put too much significance in the rankings and has several complaints about methodology. One is that Obama was scored negatively -- i.e, his non-liberal ratings did not rise -- for votes he did not participate in. Another, Gibbs said, is that the magazine ascribes any vote on Iraq that somehow opposed the war as "liberal." And he wonders why Obama's proposal to create an independent ethics oversight office was scored as liberal even though cosponsors included Mary Landreiu, a moderate Dem from Louisiana, and Lindsey Graham, that raging..conservative...from South Carolina.
Mitt Romney's advisers now have their final blitz mapped out. Confront McCain squarely on his past record. Play up, subtly, the generational differences between the two candidates. Put the fear of God in activists. “We’ll fight for another week and hope the conservatives realize they have to come together or have McCain as their nominee."
The strategy eschews big states and concentrates on smaller states where the delegate selection processes favor conservatives. They include Colorado, a caucus state, West Virginia, Alaska (which is why Romney mentioned McCain's support for ANWR drilling last night), and Oklahoma and Georgia, two states where delegates can be extracted from congressional districts.
The goal is to minimize the delegate gulf between McCain and Romney headed out of Feb 5 and give Romney a pretext to continue to campaign if McCain suddenly falters.
Romney's chief strategist, Alex Gage, writes in a memo obtained by this column that only a small shift among conservatives in many states could swing a whole lot of momentum towards Romney.
As we move towards February 5th, it’s worth taking a close look back at exit polling from the past few primaries. The coalitions that John McCain assembled in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida have been strikingly similar—and are strikingly tenuous. Public polling shows McCain ahead in many states, but we are now in a two-man race and a few points’ movement among conservatives is all that’s needed to tip the scales in favor of Gov. Romney.
In all three states where he was victorious, McCain’s margin of victory rested on moderates, self identified independents, and voters who disapprove of the Bush administration. None of these
groups is a majority of the Republican electorate. In fact, every GOP primary this year has been
at least 55% conservative, 61% Republican, and 50% supportive of the Bush administration—
explaining why McCain has failed to win more than 36% of the vote in any of them.
The McCain formula for success worked in a divided field when conservatives was fractured, but
even a small coalescence of conservatives around Gov. Romney would reveal his
support as a coalition too small to win the nomination of the Republican party.
Conservatives, self-identified Republicans, and voters who approve of President Bush are likely to be majorities of the electorate in all of the February 5th states. It is therefore easy to see how
we defeat McCain in a two-main race by focusing on traditional Republican primary voters.
We still have an uphill battle in front of us—the mainstream media is ready to anoint John McCain and he will have advantages in many states from running for president for the past eight years— but Gov. Romney has a clear path to victory on February 5th and beyond.
** Barack Obama raised $32 million in January... and managed to find 170,000 new donors. That's a jaw dropping figure. The silence from the Clinton campaign suggests that they haven't raised that much, or from nearly that many people. More evidence that Obama has cracked the movement-building code.
** Rudy Giuliani ended 2007 with a little more than $11 on hand -- not as dire as one would have assumed.
One of the more amazing things I've witnessed this cycle is how John McCain was able to run his campaign on the fumes of fumes, on only earned and free media, and still manage to find himself the unambiguous frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
McCain adviser Charlie Black credits campaign manager Rick Davis, who laid down an order: no matter how much money came in, marginally less than out was coming out. A number of key advisers, including McCain wordsmith/alter ego Mark Salter, worked without salaries for months. Even as their political fortunes improved, the campaign didn't go on a hiring binge.
According to the FEC, even with McCain's loan (collateralized on the campaign, and not on money from federal matching funds), he ended the year with only $3M on hand.
That money was gone by New Hampshire.
Since then, he's raised and spent about $9M, including more than 1 million over the past week off the internet.
Though fundraising commitments are soaring, the McCain campaign wears their pecuniary problems as a badge of honor: they found a way to secure the Republican nomination on the cheap without taking money from the government.
An oldie but goodie. In Connecticut, Democrats are receiving this direct mail piece from Barack Obama's presidential campaign. (The poor quality of this copy can be blamed on a fax machine).
According to a private survey conducted for Arnold Schwarzenneger's political advisers, the governor has an 81% approval rating among Republicans in California -- evidence that his endorsement of Sen. John McCain today will help with the right crowd.
10,000 Clinton administration documents from 24 months of FOIA requests are due to be turned over to representatives for former President Clinton today.
Currently about one half of one percent of the 78 million archived documents are available – about 300,000 of out of 78,000,000.
The documents available today are said to include Hillary Clinton’s daily schedules in the White House.
A Clinton aide said last night that the records have yet to be turned over. “When the records arrive, they'll be reviewed,” the aide said. The statute allows for a 30 day inspection period, but that can be extended if the reviewer needs more time.
Clinton's aides insist that Clinton has given the least restrictive instructions to the National Archive of any president during the modern period.
Believe it or not, we at the Atlantic are not required to plug James Fallows' annual State of the Union annotation. There's a little peer pressure, yes -- but mostly, all of us Atlantic Voices decided to link to it because it's enlightening and entertaining.
First reactions are almost always off, but we react, then we write. So here goes:
Romney ceded the debate to McCain at the beginning when he acknowledged that McCain’s record was that of a mainstream conservative, albeit with some caveats. Astonishing – the only way Romney will win on Feb 5 is if a groundswell of grassroots conservative opposition to McCain. Romney pointed out some apostasies, but he did not make a sustained argument that McCain was not sufficiently conservative.
There’s no question that Romney got in his talking points, but early on he did not extend them with energy or zest; he seemed resigned and somber; he matched McCain’s tone, rather than leading McCain into the wilderness of anger or confrontation. Romney never pressed McCain on McCain’s dodges, like on the Bush tax cuts. There was no follow through…nothing to cue the voters that they had just seen something important.
McCain seems to have spent virtually all his debate prep time on the economy. For the first time in a debate – and during the last, most important debate – he matched Romney on breadth of knowledge and exceeded him at projecting sympathy. He knew the buzz words , he knew the status of legislation, he talked ably about interplay between the foreign and domestic economies.
Yes, Romney got in a few zingers – the point about McCain and dirty tricks being one of them. But McCain’s rebuttal was effective, and in any event, McCain knows this subject like the back of his hand, and he’s able to argue circles around Romney, who tried to argue from a point of personal procedures. Also: the issue is so complex that the “right” answer wasn’t evident – certainly not to the average viewer.
09:28: Is Romney capable of being Commander in Chief? McCain cites Romney's business experience...: "He bought and he sold and sometimes people lost their jobs and that's the nature of that business...but we're at the time in our history where you can't afford any on-the-job training..."
09:28: Romney gives a strong answer that weaves together his experience with his resume...notes that ABe Lincoln wasn't a military leader...
09:26: Romney actually said he was commander-in-chief of National Guard... true, but...he's sitting next to John Sidney McCain!
09:25: Romney says he'd the better leader on the economy.,..as people "over the centuries" have considered who'd lead the country, "they look to leaders." "You've got to have something who's actually done some work in the private economy and understand how it works..."
09:24: McCain is asked about the economy but instead talks about wars.... talks about his history with Reagan... "as we fought these wars together with unshakable courage and principles."
09:23: McCain has his Somber Reagan Voice down pat.
09:23: Press room starts to talk among themselves when Romney is speaking.
09:22: Romney goes all wonky when talking about Putin; Huck's simpler answer was stronger.
09:21: You can imagine McCain's brain trust sitting behind a VP table grading Huckabee's every answer.
09:20 When Huck looks at Pres. Putin, what does he see? "I don't know if I can read people's souls...their eyes can lie, their actions don't..." cites Ronald Reagan's "peace through strength: line.
09:16: Ron Paul got some applause for talking about "these silly arguments."
09:15: When McCain calls Romney "my friend," he really means: "You little @#*(@#*(."
09:14: Citing the media to defend a point in a Republican debate won't work.
09:13: W. Mitt Obama: this is a tactic of old-Washington. Romney: "The Washington Post gave you three Pinocchio's for it.... "
09:12 Romney's again arguing a process point: "He's never raised issue with me."
09:11: Romney's on the defensive...looks angry and upset...
09:10: Romney's arguing a point of personal procedure... McCain knows so much about Iraq that it;'s hard for Romney to respond substantively.
09:08: A very angry Mitt Romney: "How is it that you're an expert on my position?" McCain: "I am expert on this."
09:07: McCain: "Of course he wanted a timetable." McCain notes that Romney in Dec of '06 said he wouldn't weigh in on the surge because he was a governor.
09:06: Applause from audience when Romney says Reagan would have found the dirty tricks reprehensible.
09:05: Even if McCain is stretching to make a point, if we're talking about Iraq, he makes the points better than anyone else.
09:04: Romney: "Absolutely, unequivocally, absolutely no. I have never, ever supported a specific timetable for exit from Iraq." Points out that CNN's own analyst who said it was a lie.
08:52: Challenged with Reagan's own words about Sandra Day O'Connor, Mike Huckabee said;l "I'm not going to come to the Reagan library and say anything about Ronald Reagan's decisions. I'm not that stupid."
Paul says he wouldn't have appointed her. Sen. McCain: "I'm proud of Sandra Day O'Connor..." Romney: "I like justices that follow the constitution rather than make laws from the bench. I would have rather had justices of that nature."
08:48: Janet Hook, who has the voice of Dr. Laura (a compliment, I assure you), asks McCain whether if, his original proposal came to the floor, he'd vote for it? "I would not." Says it wouldn't come to the floor. McCain: "Everyone knows we're in agreement. The American people want the border secure first."
08:46: Vande...challenges Romney on how he's deport immigrants.
08:45: Immigration comes up. In earlier debates, it came up earlier.
08:43: Romney: "The Bush revolution...suggested that we needed a tax cut... RR would have said sign in...and Sen. McCain was one of two who did not."
08:42: "I'm proud of my record as a footsoldier in the Reagan revolution."
08:41: McCain is challenged on his different explanation for opposing the Bush tax cuts... "Actually, I think lower and middle and income deserve more help."
08:40 -- It's so windy up here on Reagan Hill. Mount Reagan. At the library. The spin room -- a big tent, basically -- is ripping apart. Scary.
08:38 -- CNN wants to try to challenge McCain on his economic knowledge... McCain must have done some boning up...he sounds very good....
08:37, So far, McCain has kept Romney on the defensive...and Romney hasn't managed to land too many punches... might be a function of the format. Update: actually, he did correct McCain on two factual points.
08:35: Huckabee cutely admits he was pandering a little when he was talking about I-95... says there might be a Western highway we oughta expand...
08:33: Sorry, I ignored Ron Paul.
08:29 -- Romney agrees, too. Says McCain's cap-n-trade plan is tantamount to tax.
08:28 -- McCain has like four minutes to give his global warming speech. CNN's producers not in Anderson's ear?
08:25: Asked about Arnold's emissions proposal (wants CA to be able to implement much tougher caps) -- does he side with governor or with the Bush Administration: "At some physical danger, I have to agree with the Governor. I'm a federalist. I believe the states should decide to an enormous degree what happens within those states, including off their coasts."
08:23: Romney asked about fines for not purchasing health care in Massachusetts. He gives his fairly compelling capsule history of his health care effort in Mass.
08:22: VandeHIGH .. HIGH.
08:21: Huckabee, asked about Rush: "I wish Rush loved me as much I loved Rush. It doesn't mean he's inerrant or infoulable."
08:15: Romney asked about McCain following "liberal Democratic" course... doesn't he have a "mainstream conservative record?" -- Romney admits McCain is a good Republican. A number of instances, though: "opposed to drilling in ANWR -- (YAY -- ALASKA CAUCUSES) - co-author of McCain Feingold.. :"which took a whack at the first amendment and hurt our party..." -- author or amnesty bills, etc.
08:16: Romney: "If you get endorsed by the New York Times, then you're probably not a conservative." McCain points out that both Mass papers including the Herald (which, to be fair, HATED Romney), endorsed McCain.... McCain goes into litany about Romney's Mass's. record....
08:18: Romney wants to help McCain "will the facts." Corrects McCain about his misstatement about his LG. (McCain said Romney's LT G. endorsed McCain...) -- Romney: "During my term in office, we added jobs..." Romney acknowledges raising fees... but not as much as McCain had said.
08:20: Debating Massachusetts... kind of like we were doing one year ago. What happened to 2007?
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is likely to endorse Sen. John McCain before the California primary -- perhaps as early as tomorrow, Republican sources with direct knowledge of the endorsement said.
On CNN today, Schwarzenegger said he has nothing to announce "today" but would not speculate about tomorrow.
McCain and Schwarzenegger have spoken personally within the past few days, and aides are working out a time and location for the governor to give his benediction. The men share a set of issues, including climate change, and a pragmatism that often finds them at odds with their party.
McCain's schedule includes an unspecified Los Angeles political event on Wednesday.
Aides to McCain declined to comment, and an aide and adviser to Schwarzenegger did not respond to requests seeking comment.
SIMI VALLEY -- They call each other "heroes." They believe that the pre-eminent challenge of our time is the fight against radical Islamic Jihad. They're both unorthodox Republicans; they both privately disdain Romney; they both are great friends. Their worldviews are sympatico. Had the leaden shoe of defeat been secured to John McCain's foot by Florida voters, it's likely that he would have endorsed Rudy Giuliani.
"When you run for president, you spend a lot of time thinking about the qualities you want in a chief executive." For Giuliani, those qualities are "someone who can be trusted in a time of crisis, someone with a clear vision of the challenges facing our nation."
"John McCain is the most qualified candidate to be the next commander in chief," Giuliani said. "He is an American hero. He is a man of honor and integrity. He's shown character throughout his life."
Repeatedly, Giuliani stressed the mutual detente that existed between he and McCain -- McCain ran no attack ads against him, and vice-versa. This was as close to a shot against Mitt Romney as Giuliani made. (There had been a rumor circulating that he would, in addition to dropping out and endorsing McCain, make a case against Mitt Romney.)
Giuliani looked somber but relieved, as if a burden had been lifted. His staff and his press corps describe him as being in good spirits and eager to return to private life.
SIMI VALLEY -- In a few moments, Rudy Giuliani will endorse John McCain in.. well, the spin room, but don't read too much into that.
Talk to a Romney adviser this morning and they're likely to acknowledge the unprecedented luck that their candidate will need to block McCain's path to the nomination.
Here in Los Angeles, a radio listener flipping back and forth between the city’s two top AM radio stations yesterday morning found two of the country’s largest conservative megaphones, Rush Limbaugh and Michael Reagan, all but urging their listeners to revolt against McCain. The litany of their complaints begins with his long-time advocacy of campaign finance reform, seen by some conservatives as both an affront to free speech and the source of their party’s current financial deficits, to immigration, to judges, to his unwillingness to court conservatives like Limbaugh.
This morning, Rush tried to maintain his resolve, giving what he called a "non-concession speech:
Here is the bottom line, ladies and gentlemen. I think this is it. There was a lot of anxiety among a lot of conservatives about Senator McCain. It's simply indisputable. But there was no figure in our roster of candidates who rose up to challenge him or galvanize conservative support. All the candidates on our side, for various reasons, are uninspiring or worse -- and so, just as I predicted, the base has fractured. Some going here, some going there. Senator McCain's been able to cobble together enough votes to win in a few states. Fine. He deserves credit for that. But to pretend that Senator McCain is the choice of conservatives when exit poll data from every primary state show just the opposite... He is not the choice of conservatives, as opposed to the choice of the Republican establishment -- and that distinction is key.
We'll see.
A McCain adviser said that "Once Rush recognizes that the race will be between John and Hillary Clinton, he'll come around."
There hasn't been any outreach...yet.. the first goal McCain has to unify the party, and he recognizes that Feb. 5 is only the first step.
Based on polling and analysis and interviews with campaign officials.....
Hillary Clinton has an edge in New York, New Jersey, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Obama has an edge in Idaho, Minnesota, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and Illinois.
The following states lean to Clinton right now: California, Connecticut
The following entities lean Obama right now: Colorado, Democrats Abroad
True tossups: Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico, Utah, American Samoa, Alaska, Massachusetts
For Republicans, I'd say John McCain has a distinct edge in California, New York, New Jersey, Alabama, Massachusetts, Arizona, Connecticut and Tennessee.
Mitt Romney has an edge in Utah, Maine, Montana, Alaska, West Virginia.
Mike Huckabee used to be the governor of Arkansas.
John Edwards will end his presidential bid today in the city that symbolizes the animating impulse behind his message, New Orleans.
His staff was notified of the decision early this morning. As of last night, spokesfolks denied "rumors."
Edwards will be joined on stage by Elizabeth Edwards and his three children.
After the speech, he and his staff will work together on a New Orleans Habitat for Humanity project.
He does not plan to endorse any presidential candidate in the near future, advisers said.
Advisers say he worries that Obama isn't ready to be president and that Hillary Clinton represents too much the old way of doing business... and both concerns weigh heavily.
By dropping out in NOLA, he hopes to force his rivals to take up the mantle of anti-poverty efforts that he began his race by talking about.
WALLACE: Finally, Senator Clinton, there was an incident last night at the State of the Union address that is getting a bit of attention. When you get into the hall – we’ll put the picture up -- you reached out -- Senator Kennedy and Senator Obama were standing side by side. Senator Kennedy shook your hand, and Senator Obama said he was looking to talk to somebody else. Some people are saying that he snubbed to you. Do you feel like you were snubbed you last night?
SEN. CLINTON: Well, Chris, I reached out my hand in friendship and unity and my hand is still reaching out. And I look forward to shaking his hand when I see him at the debate in California. But what is important here is that any differences between us as Democrats pale in comparison to the differences between us and the Republicans, and I think we will have a unified Democratic Party... We will come together, not only as a party, but as a country in this election year, and I am confident that we are going to present a very strong case to the American people as to why Democrats should once again be in the White House
The big point in this is fundamentally correct: 1.5 million Florida Democrats cast ballots yesterday. Delegates -- no, but either they mean something or nothing.. and if they mean something, it means that, at the very least, there is a reason to think that Feb. 5 will be.. as competitive as we think it will be.
To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Re: A Significant Victory in Florida
Hillary Clinton won a significant victory today in the Florida primary with biggest turnout in Florida Democratic primary history. She will end up with more votes than John McCain, the winner of the Republican primary. And Floridians cast more votes than were cast in Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, and New Hampshire combined.
A large, broad, and diverse group of voters came out and voted for Hillary in Florida. She won women, men, and just about every age category. She won nearly 6 in 10 Latinos and nearly 3 in 10 African American voters.
The vote turned out to be far more than symbolic. Well over 1.5 million Democrats cast their ballots, more than twice the number of voters who came out to vote in the 2004 primary.
Most of the voters in Florida fully expect that their votes will not be wasted again -- they too have a voice at the convention, and Hillary has asked her delegates to support their being seated.
This result comes after Senator Obama ran TV commercials that reached Florida homes and after the enormous publicity he received for South Carolina and for the Ted Kennedy endorsement. The exit polls show widespread recognition of the endorsement -- but even so among those who decided on Election Day, a plurality of those chose Hillary.
But any momentum seemed to run out today -- among those who decided on Election Day, a plurality of those chose Hillary.
“When Senator Clinton was campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, she said that states like Michigan and Florida that won’t award delegates, ‘don’t count for anything.’ Now that Senator Clinton has lost badly in South Carolina, she’s trying to assign meaning to a contest that awards zero delegates and where no campaigning has occurred. Senator Clinton’s own campaign has repeatedly said that this is a ‘contest for delegates’, and tonight, Florida awarded zero. Senator Obama is disappointed that Florida will have no role in selecting delegates for the Democratic nominee, but looks forward to competing and winning in Florida during the general election,” said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.
Romney starts speech before Giuliani ends...
Giuliani prepares to end campaign and endorse McCain: discussions continuing among campaign officials about when and where... Giuliani will travel to California tomorrow...
McCain: "Thank you for bringing a former Florida resident across the finish line first....in, as I have been repeatedly reminded of lately, an all-Republican primary!"
"Thank you Rudy for all you have added to this race..."
"In one week, we have as close to a national primary as we've ever had in this country. I intend to win it and be the nominee of our party!"
"I enlisted in as a foot soldier in the revolution that he began. I am as proud today to be a conservative Republican as I was then."
Tears up.... Rudy: "Finally, we need to re-establish very very clear, the Republican Party, Lincoln, Reagan, and the party of Bush, the Republican Party is a party that is and has been from the beginning, when we are on our game, when we're being our contributor, we are the party of freedom, we are the party of the people. And we're a big party. And we're getting bigger. I'm even this party. This is a big party."
Rudy: "I don't back down from a principled fight....elections are about a lot more than just candidates...elections are about fighting for a cause larger than ourselves..."
Rudy: "I want to congratulate each of my opponents on a hard fought campaign here in Florida...."
Rudy: "Win or lose, our work is not done. Leaders dream of a better future and they help to bring it into reality."
Rudy: "I'm proud that we chose to stay positive and run a campaign of ideas. We ran a campaign that was uplifting."
Rudy: "The ideas of our campaign...clearly identify the great challenges of our time...first, America needs to stay on offense to win the terrorist's war on us....the best way to achieve peace is through overwhelming strength."
Tears up.... Rudy: "Finally, we need to re-establish very very clear, the Republican Party, Lincoln, Reagan, and the party of Bush, the Republican Party is a party that is and has been from the beginning, when we are on our game, when we're being our contributor, we are the party of freedom, we are the party of the people. And we're a big party. And we're getting bigger. I'm even this party. This is a big party."
Dade Co reporting way earlier than usual...... Nothing in from Panhandle. Romney overperformed in Duval Co (Jacksonville)... 1-4 corridor is pretty even now...
Counties reporting in slowly: Broward, part of Palm Beach counties....Tampa area counties....
....Romney leading among Protestants...McCain winning about Catholics....McCain wins 50% of Cuban-Americans......
Clinton claims.. "Victory" -- 'This has been a record turnout because Floridians wanted their voices to be heard....I am thrilled to have this vote of confidence that you have given my today...."
32% in.. McCain 34%, Romney 33%:, Rudy 15%, 10,000 vote margin....
McCain v. Romney
Dade Co reporting way earlier than usual...... Nothing in from Panhandle. Romney overperformed in Duval Co (Jacksonville)... 1-4 corridor is pretty even now...
CBS News exit polls: Crist's endorsement not seen as helping McCain....Hispanics make up 13$ of voters...McCain wins them 2 to 1 over Giuliani; Romney third.....six in ten primary voters are conservative...3 in ten are moderates...conservatives chose Romney by 40% to 27%.....McCain wins 41 to 19 among moderates...issues voters chose Romney by 36% to 24%...leadership quality voters chose McCain... McCain is seem as the most electable...McCain and Romney get 28% of white evangelicals; Romney gets 34%... But are exits screwy? 49% of voters say economy was top issue, but McCain wins plurality of them?
...
Economy is biggest issue again...
Waiting on Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade counties.....
Pandhandle voting could benefit McCain (veterans) or Romney (conservatives)
Heavy turnout among Hispanics...relatively...
Remember...early voting / asbentees already counted....should be in early..
Panhandle polls still open...
Fox News exit polls: Seniors 40 to 31, McCain.....TIED among veterans..50 to 26 McCain among Hispanics....Immigration as issue: Romney wins...Economy as issue, McCain wins...
...
HRC leading "Dems"; Obama campaign issues tongue in cheek statement: "Based on exit polling data our campaign is prepared to call the delegate count at 7 pm eastern." More: "Obama and Clinton tie for delegates in Florida. 0 for Obama, 0 for Clinton."
A McCain campaign spokesperson says that a robocall accusing Gov. Mitt Romney of once favoring "special rights" for gay people is no longer in the campaign's rotation.
It acquired a name sometime between 6am and 12pm as I was flying across the country. What had begun with a photo appearing to show Barack Obama staring icily at an open-faced Hillary Clinton, and a second, turned away as she greeted Sen. Ted Kennedy, has turned into something called "The Snub."
In the age of visual information, brush asides become thinly sliced character studies. Hence, if you're an Obama supporter, he was politely responding to a question from Claire McCaskill and did not know that Sen. Clinton was eager to shake his hand. If you're an opponent, you saw the "real Obama" -- not the Jesus his staff portrays him to be, but an arrogant upstart for whom "New Politics" means the Politics of Me.
Let's stipulate that Obama, being familiar enough to find his way to Capitol Hill, presumably expected to encounter his presidential rival. Let us also presume that, despite his protestations, images and impressions often matter more than words, and so he might have been a bit more sensitive to his surroundings. But let us concede that to expect a presidential candidate to know when to turn and when to stay focused is appropriate only when Roger Goodman is in his ear. (And Roger Goodman was in New York City.)
Aside from that, everyone will see in The Snub what they like. The media, driven by a bias toward conflict, has already concluded what the Snub was, but they're pretending to ask the question anyway. To be fair, the vast majority of the press's first impressions were that it was a snub.
To reporters on his press plane, Obama said he really just didn't see Sen. Clinton intending to say hello to him and meant no disrespect. Earlier today, his chief strategist said that Obama had known Clinton was there but did not not want to get in the way of an awkward moment between Sen. Kennedy and Sen. Clinton.
Over the next few days, I'm going to write quite a bit about the complexity facing Democratic campaign targeters over the next several days. It's akin to running 22 simultaneous presidential campaigns in 22 different counties where the winner is based not on the popular vote in the country but on the delegates selected by congressional districts.
So let's start by taking one such "country," like, say, California.
In some ways, it makes sense to concentrate resources in some areas and skip others.
Why?
Because some districts send an odd number of delegates to the national convention, campaigning there is more efficient than in districts allocating an even number of delegates.
Why?
Because even without campaigning or concentrated television ads, the split in most of the even districts is not likely to allocate more delegates to the winner than to the second place finisher, especially if the number of total delegates allocated is 4.
Each congressional district in California has between 3 and 7 delegates to give; a total of 241 pledged delegates. The popular vote statewide determines the allocation of an additional 81 delegates, and 48 more are PLEOs -- but forget about the PLEOs for now.
So it makes sense for each candidate to maximize turnout in the larger odd-delegate congressional districts, right?
Not necessarily.
In states like New York, where Hillary Clinton will almost certainly win, and Illinois, almost certainly an Obama state, it makes more sense for the candidates to target the smaller-delegate-allocating congressional districts because they can increase turnout to boost their statewide totals AND win extra delegates at the same time.
It's easier, in other words, to extract an additional delegate by winning a smaller, odd-delegate congressional district than by trying to winner a larger, odd-delegate congressional district.
A further layer of complication is demographic.
Even though some advisers concede that Hillary Clinton will probably win California, Barack Obama's campaign will heavily target a number of large-and-small, odd-and-even congressional districts in the Bay Area (think Oakland, Berkeley, Marin County) because Democrats there tend to be more educated and younger -- and black -- exactly the demographic profile Obama has used to success in earlier states. But wait -- if you're in charge of Obama's California spending, do you spent, say, $100,000 extra in the 6th Congressional District, which comprises Marin County and Somona County north of San Fransisco? It allocates an even number of delegates -- six. Unless there's a landslide, both Obama and Clinton will get 3, each.
Why not spend that money trying to beat Clinton in the 7th congressional district across the bay -- Solano County and parts of Contra Costa counties, where the congressman, George Miller, has already endorsed Obama? CD 7 allocated 5 delegates, an an extra effort there might give Obama one extra delegate.
As of yesterday, 301,024 Republicans had turned in absentee ballots in Florida and another 288, 025 had voted early.
Rudy Giuliani's campaign tried to collect absentees early -- before voting started. They were moderately successful, according to the campaign's tracking. Since Giuliani's core pool of supporters is said to overlap with McCain's, McCain is said to be at a disadvantage here.
Mitt Romney's campaign tried to collect absentees late. Initially, they hoped that Romney victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would boost their efforts. Whoops. BUT -- victories in Michigan and Nevada and Wyoming and Romney's enduring viability probably helped their collection.
