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THE SAGE

08 Jan 2008 06:36 pm

MORE EXIT POLL HIGHLIGHTS: Indies: 33% of the GOP electorate. They chose McCain 38% to 26%. But McCain also beat Romney among Republicans: 36% to 31%. McCain won late deciders handily. BTW: less than in five NH GOP voters indentified themselves as evangelicals. “Sharing ones values” was more important than “what a candidate believes,” which was more important than “electability.” Only 24% think Romney is qualified to be commander in chief, compared to 43% for McCain.................Obama won independents, getting nearly 50% of their votes. Independents comprised about 41% of the Democratic primary vote. But Hillary Clinton won among registered Democrats: 38% to 32%. Clinton wins women narrowly: 40% to 36%. STUNNER: 47% say Obama is most likely to beat Republicans, compared to 33% for Clinton. But Clinton is still viewed as qualified to be commander in chief: 37% say she’s the most qualified, versus Obama at 27%.



Maggie Williams, Roy Spence, Doug Sosnik to participate in post-postmortem conference call with Clinton campaign officials tomorrow; Williams may play senior managerial role; no one being fired. Edwards raises $1.6M since Iowa; Clinton raises about $1M; Obama campaign raises nearly $3M.....MOVING FORWARD: Romney plans national call day in Boston tomorrow; heads to Michigan, than South Carolina. EXIT POLLS: GOP: 3 in 10 GOP voters are independents (CORRECTED FIGURE)...many late deciders... McCain more electable than Romney...33% say economy is biggest issue followed by Iraq (22%) .... Democrats: 46% made up minds without last week.. 4 in 10 are independents.... HRC's favorability: 73%; Obama's: 84%; ... 36% say economy is top issue....

Bill Clinton to major surrogates on a conference call today: "I don't know what's going to happen. I know it's going to be a little closer than people expect. You've just got to keep your chin up and keep fighting."


Roy Spence will play major role in next iteration of Clinton campaign....Spence is longtime friend of the family who has helped rescue previous Clinton PR disasters..
Polls close at 7pm and 8pm...cities and towns report independently...results ETA: ?? ...Leaked exit polls? Not this timeDEM PRECINCTS RUNNING LOW ON BALLOTS .... TURNOUT SEEMS BRISK...One political aide; "Rock concerts at precincts".....but don't believe anecdotes...just wait until the results come in......Huckabee campaign bus gets stuck in ice...Will Clinton abandon South Carolina? Unlikely, but she'll probably spend more time in Feb. 5 states / Nevada .... candidate upbeat, but staff glum...speculation abounds about staff shake-up, but no announcements until tonight or Wednesday....
Clinton GOTV call script

All the candidates in the Democratic Primary have promised change but Hillary is the
one candidate most prepared to deliver on that promise. Hillary is counting on your
support.

→ Have you cast your vote for Hillary today?

((IF NOT REGISTERED TO VOTE:))

Remember, you can REGISTER to VOTE TODAY at the polls and then cast
your ballot for Hillary. This election is going to be very close and every
voter counts. It’s easy to do and remember Hillary is counting on you.

Read "Teacher and Apprentice" from the December Atlantic..

Romney vows to continue regardless of finish...but aides concede a win in Michigan will be tough unless he finishes close to first in NH...Obama's early morning event marred by fainting woman, tasteless Larry David joke Thompson campaigns seems "Thompson Troops" who will "pay their own way" in SC....Come on El Rushbo, you know you want to endorse Fred....

Sources: Obama campaign expects Culinary Workers' union endorsement in Nevada; may fly to Vegas on Friday to accept...Don't you...forget about me? I'll be alone...Giuliani launches Spanish language TV ad in Florida...

The Hill: Thompson staff decamps to South Carolina with reduced pay.

Comments (15)

Marc, this is great, but can you please fix the formatting?

"Thompson campaigns seems "Thompson Troops" who will "pay their own way" in SC"

Is this English? WTF???

And fix the damn formatting.

I didn't get to read Teacher and Apprentice til now and it's really intersting to see how much the shape of the race has changed while both candidates have stayed the same.

In the end, though, Hillary Clinton may be the candidate who best understood the Democratic electorate—she certainly understood and accepted the demands placed upon anyone serious about winning. A primary that Obama hoped would be a referendum on how politics is practiced may be decided not over questions of protocol and process, but instead over something more basic. After eight long years in the wilderness, Clinton senses that what Democrats want most is victory.

I think the abscenes of progress from the 2006 Democratic landslide and the recognition that the President and his party held strong has led people to value the powers of the presidency and mainly the power to set agenda through persusion. People want to completely break with the past and this has been a strong driving force that has blunted the idea Clinton tries to play: that she's been a change-agent for 35 years. I don't know if Obama will make it to the nomination; politics is funny and life changes on a dime. But he has inexorably changed the contours of this elction: process has become a major issue with the voters for the first time. He's done what Bradley and Stevenson didn't and Dean attempted but never quite pulled off.

The formatting's part of the joke/homage ... relax ...

So what was the joke?

Also check full coverage over at Campaign Diaries throughout the night. And, for now, these guidelines of what to expect tonight and the expectations going in.

Marc, how many in ten are independents for the GOP? You just said "GOP: independents are in ten GOP voters"

What were the expectations for percentage of independents among Dems and the GOP?

Is 3/10 and 4/10 high/low/expected?

Are 30% of independents voting GOP, or 30% of GOP voters independents? That looks like a typo, please confirm.

Brian -

4 in 10 is good for Obama.

Marc, can you please clarify the Independent percentages?

Are 30% of the Independents voting in the GOP primary, and thus 70% of the Independents voting in the Dem primary? (but 40% of the Democratic vote is from Independents?)

That's my reading of your post, but it's far from clear.

Yeah I think that "3 in 10 independents are GOP voters" is a typo, he might mean the other way around.

Annoying is the new funny?

Oh...I get it. Not.

Worst page ever.

Thanks for the great coverage. There's some interesting predictions here:

http://www.acropolisreview.com/


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