The big point in this is fundamentally correct: 1.5 million Florida Democrats cast ballots yesterday. Delegates -- no, but either they mean something or nothing.. and if they mean something, it means that, at the very least, there is a reason to think that Feb. 5 will be.. as competitive as we think it will be.
To: Interested PartiesFrom: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Re: A Significant Victory in Florida
Hillary Clinton won a significant victory today in the Florida primary with biggest turnout in Florida Democratic primary history. She will end up with more votes than John McCain, the winner of the Republican primary. And Floridians cast more votes than were cast in Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, and New Hampshire combined.
A large, broad, and diverse group of voters came out and voted for Hillary in Florida. She won women, men, and just about every age category. She won nearly 6 in 10 Latinos and nearly 3 in 10 African American voters.
The vote turned out to be far more than symbolic. Well over 1.5 million Democrats cast their ballots, more than twice the number of voters who came out to vote in the 2004 primary.
Most of the voters in Florida fully expect that their votes will not be wasted again -- they too have a voice at the convention, and Hillary has asked her delegates to support their being seated.
This result comes after Senator Obama ran TV commercials that reached Florida homes and after the enormous publicity he received for South Carolina and for the Ted Kennedy endorsement. The exit polls show widespread recognition of the endorsement -- but even so among those who decided on Election Day, a plurality of those chose Hillary.
But any momentum seemed to run out today -- among those who decided on Election Day, a plurality of those chose Hillary.
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The key is that the election itself is not indicative of what the results would have been in a true contest with all candidates on the ground campaigning. An election without a campaign is kind of like a banana republic. Put Obama on the ground and things change. Put Obama's field organization in the state and the turnout changes.
This seems to be the first primary state where Republican turnout exceeded Democratic turnout, even though Democrats hold a small edge in registration in the state. Why? Clearly, because this was not a true contest, and many who would have voted on the Democratic side did not show up. This is especially true since the Obama campaign has been legendary at turning out young people and first time voters.
It's simply misleading to in any way suggest that an election without the candidates actively campaigning means much of anything, much less is indicative of what votes will be where such campaigns exist.
So sure it was a vote, and many people turned out. No doubt many Democrats turned out to vote on the important property tax initiative on the ballot. But had this been a true contest, there would have been more far more people voting and the results would likely have been far different. We know, for instance, that Obama won among those who decided in the last month, after the election season got started.
Posted by cm | January 30, 2008 7:04 AM