AtlantiCam: Gordon Fischer Interview

Gordon Fischer, a former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, is currently the Iowa co-chair of Sen. Barack Obama's campaign.

Fischer predicts a turnout of 200,000....

Comments

What is turnout ilke normally?

Posted by goethean | January 2, 2008 1:59 PM

goethean, (Re: Iowa Turnout)

According to today's New York Times:

"In 2000, the last year in which both parties held caucuses, 59,000 Democrats and 87,000 Republicans voted, in a state with 2.9 million people.

In 2004, when the Republicans did not caucus, 124,000 people turned out for the Democratic caucuses."

Gordon Fischer might just be right about turnout reaching 200,000. Have the Democrats ever been more energized? And it would also seem that the New Year's Eve Des Moines Register Poll, the one that's caused all that hand-wringing, was also using a large turnout model.

We should know as the caucuses begin what turnout looks like. And large turnout would definitely seem to favor Barack Obama.

Posted by JenJen | January 2, 2008 2:14 PM

200,000 would be interesting.

I heard a person from Iowa on POTUS 08 a couple weeks back say that the caucus system couldn't handle many more people than it has handled in the past. He ( I can't remember who he was but he was an Iowa pol or official I believe) said they couldn't get everyone signed in if there a huge surge in turnout.

Imagine if there is chaos? What a spectable that would be with over 15,000 journos in Iowa to cover it all.

Posted by Dick Flatts | January 2, 2008 2:24 PM

I think the Democratic Party appartus in Iowa is prepared for 200,000 showing up. I heard that figure a month ago and that is why there are more caucus centers this year than in 2004.

Posted by sonya | January 2, 2008 2:37 PM

200,000 is ridiculous. That would be a 60% increase over 2004 when the Republicans didn't have one. An increase yes but not of that magnitude.Even Obama's campaign don't believe it.

Posted by john | January 2, 2008 2:57 PM

Hillary Clinton’s Recent Meteoric Rise in Wealth Pictorial Graph
http://thememlingindex.com/hillary_clinton_net_worth-wealth.html

Posted by onslow memling | January 2, 2008 3:39 PM

200,000 or a 60 percent increase in turnout is not ridiculous when you consider there was over a 100 percent increase in turnout from 2000 to 2004, as well as when you consider that there's been an unprecedented amount of money poured into to Iowa this time compared to 2004. Money equals organization which equals campaigns having the resources to literally transport people to the caucuses.

I also heard that something like only 6-15 percent of eligible voters in Iowa take part in the caucus. That's outrageously low and leaves so much room for an increase in turnout.

Posted by Johnny, Fairfax, Virginia | January 2, 2008 3:50 PM

I'll believe that number when I see it but I DO hope it's predicated on expected youth turnout. MSM have continually pooh-poohed the idea that young voters - especially students - will actually show up, either to caucus or to vote. Sure, the CW is that it would help Obama but the greatest benefit would go to the country. Forty years after the assassinations of King and Kennedy, wouldn't it be something to again see young people show an interest - this time out of hope more than anger...

Posted by GordonsGirl | January 2, 2008 4:17 PM

It would be great if young people are being drawn into the system. (Granted in the stories I have read about Iowa, first-time caucus goers were describe as young if they were under 35) There is a reason the MSM pooh-poohs the youth vote. Even with the uptick in the 2004 general, 18-24 years olds still vote at a much lower rate than the older cohorts.

Posted by reality | January 3, 2008 7:21 AM