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Caucus Day: Surprises

03 Jan 2008 08:02 am

Joe Biden could be fourth or tied for third; John McCain could finish third; the latter would be a development worth noting in the coverage today.... in fact, it's been noted and predicted so much, it's almost expected that he'll finish fifth.... McCain has no real organization here, and any and all support is entirely endogenous. McCain could be unbeatable -- his three strongest states, organizationally, are New Hampshire and Michigan and South Carolina, and the Giuliani campaign does not want to run against him.

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Comments (5)

Don't be coy, Marc ...

Biden would be tied for third with whom?

Posted by DTM | January 3, 2008 8:12 AM

how did you determine that McCain has no organization in Iowa? Was it from talking to the campaign or rival campaigns or from no research whatsoever but instead you just decided to make an assertion about which you know absolutely nothing?

Seriously - not trying to be a jerk, but how did you make that determination?

Posted by Tim May | January 3, 2008 8:48 AM

I have gone back and forth about whether Biden could have a surge on caucus night. On the one hand, he has the "right stuff" to be someone who gets some late breaking support. On the other hand, I think its tough for any second tier cadidate to make up a lot of ground in a race with three strong frontrunners and an expected high turnout....I wonder if it is equally likely that a lot of the second tier candidates will fail to make viability in a lot of precints because of the really high turnout of the frontrunners. So I am not sure how it will go, but I am leaning against Biden getting up to third - unless HIllary tanks and falls closer to 4th, but even I, would would love such a scenario, don't think that is likely.

Posted by RKA | January 3, 2008 8:52 AM

I have a hard time believing that McCain's Democrats will translate into a win in South Carolina. At this point McCain is a honorary member of the Democratic Leadership Council, and Lindsey Graham is hardly the most popular politician in South Carolina.

Posted by mikeVA | January 3, 2008 1:46 PM

Biden will not be third or fourth.

McCain is polling third in Iowa, so not sure why that's surprising. It just goes to show once again how crappy the GOP field is that someone many Republicans actively dislike is going to get third.

The Romney's have some history if Michigan, IIRC.

Posted by bob | January 3, 2008 5:38 PM