Faced with the prospect of John McCain as the Republican nominee, again, the Democratic National Committee is distributing a bracketing memo designed to make the case that McCain isn't the insurgent of old old -- he's the Bush-loving conservative-cozying, principle-compromising McCain of, well, new old.
The memo notes that McCain received nearly 25,000 fewer votes in 2008 than in 2000 and that his share of the independent vote fell.
From the memo: "McCain’s reinvention as a right-wing partisan might convince the Republican base that they don’t have to worry about the Maverick McCain standing in the way of a radical right wing agenda. However, swing voters who are looking for the Maverick McCain might be puzzled when this version of John McCain shows up at their doorstep with his new baggage in tow."
The full memo is after the jump.
I asked Jill Hazelbaker, McCain's communications director, to respond to the DNC's decision to take on McCain's political prospects.
"Why? Because they don't want to run against him," she said.
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Mike Gehrke
RE: Is Mac Really Back?
Despite repeating his win in New Hampshire, the John McCain of 2008 emerges much weaker than the John McCain of 2000. His poll ratings may have rebounded from the levels they were at during the summer, but the "Do anything to win" strategy that caused them to crash in the first place is still in place. That strategy and its radioactive results will continue to dog him in the coming weeks.
McCain And Republicans Captured Smaller Share Of NH Voters Than 8 Years Ago.
As just about everybody predicted, John McCain won the New Hampshire Republican primary last night. But in the process he received fewer votes than either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, and even among Republicans his overall victory was less convincing than his 2000 showing. Overall turnout in the open New Hampshire primary increased by roughly one-third, but McCain actually received fewer votes than he did in 2000. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, McCain tallied nearly 89,000 votes this year. In 2000, McCain received 115,606 votes – that’s 23 percent fewer votes in an overall electorate that increased by more than 100,000 voters.
NH Raw Vote Totals 2000-2008
2000 2008
McCain (R) 115,606
Gore (D) 76,897
Bush (R) 72,330
Bradley (D) 70,502
Forbes (R) 30,166
Clinton (D) 112,238
Obama (D) 104,757
McCain (R) 88,447
Romney (R) 75,202
Edwards (D) 48,666
2008 results with 99 percent reporting
Maverick McCain 2000 has Become George W. Bush 2.0
If the comparison is unfair, it is only because the John McCain that stood on the stage last night is not the same John McCain that won New Hampshire in 2000. After standing up to the misguided plans and agenda of George Bush in 2000, and getting soundly and viciously beaten, McCain entered 2008 trying to be George Bush. On issue after issue he has tacked far to the right in a bid to become the candidate of the Republican establishment. The move came at considerable cost to his principles and his maverick image:
• Maverick McCain called for a limited commitment and even expressed concerns that the Bush administration’s surge strategy was too little too late. Candidate McCain now stands shoulder to shoulder with the administration, calls their strategy his own, and while no political progress is being made, McCain says he would keep our troops in Iraq permanently.
• Maverick McCain voted against Bush’s tax cuts on principles of fiscal responsibility and middle-class fairness, Candidate McCain voted to maintain the same Bush tax cuts, and embraced supply side myths while the deficit ballooned.
• Maverick McCain condemned the shadowy Republican “Swift Boat” 527, calling them “desperate and dishonorable.” He trashed lobbyists, pork and called for reform. Candidate McCain in 2007 has welcomed the top funders of the 527 group and hired many of the strategists responsible for the ads. Today, his campaign is co-chaired by two Washington lobbyists and managed by a third.
• Maverick McCain stood up to the far-right wing of his party, calling Jerry Falwell an “evil influence” in the Republican party, criticizing George Bush for speaking at Bob Jones University and opposed the NRA in calling for bans on assault weapons after Columbine. In 2008, McCain openly courted Rev. Falwell, said he was open to speaking at Bob Jones, and even after the Virginia Tech massacre, toed the NRA line calling for no more gun safety laws.
• As John McCain’s campaign hit the skids in the summer of 2007, the conventional wisdom was that it was due to his support of an immigration bill opposed by the right wing of the Republican Party. In response, he abandoned his support of the bill, and now denies supporting the amnesty provisions he previously said was “an important part” of immigration reform.
McCain loyalists might shout “Mac is Back,” but it is only a short time before people remember why he went away to begin with. As his poll numbers plummeted in June and July 2007, Time magazine noted that “warm, fuzzy feelings toward McCain vanished the moment he put on the suit of the Republican Establishment.” [Time, 7/23/07] And even close friends mourned the change saying “we lost the John McCain I knew.” [Washington Post, 6/8/07]
2007 Flip-Flops Led To Serious Problems With Independent Voters in 2008.
Republican partisans might buy the changes and even be happy with them. Mainstream pundits with a weak spot for his personal story or prickly personal style might overlook them. And for now, McCain has the tailwind of a fresh win and the approval of “his base” in the national press corps. But exit polls of actual voters show that McCain’s reinvention of 2007 has left him with deep lingering problems with independents. 32 percent of the Republican primary electorate were independents in 2000, and McCain’s victory that year was due in large part because he won 61 percent of them. This year, while substantially more independents voted in the Republican primary, McCain’s share of their votes fell to 38 percent.
McCain’s reinvention as a right-wing partisan might convince the Republican base that they don’t have to worry about the Maverick McCain standing in the way of a radical right wing agenda. However, swing voters who are looking for the Maverick McCain might be puzzled when this version of John McCain shows up at their doorstep with his new baggage in tow.
| 
I was just looking at the internals for NH, and I see that John McCain favorability is done. McCain won with voters that oppose the war! Those liberals and moderates are unlikely to stick around for one of the leading cheerleaders for the Iraq War. He was out front on all of the shows selling it as "easy, easy, easy".
Posted by mikeVA | January 9, 2008 3:56 PM