The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.
The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.
The other recent polls all show Hillary trending up and leading or within 1 point of the lead, and many show her moving up from a substantial deficit to tie and having the momentum in this race.
Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/19: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22
Zogby, 12/27-12/30: Clinton 30, Edwards 26, Obama 26
Mason-Dixon, 12/26-12/18: Clinton 23, Edwards 24, Obama 22
Research 2000, 12/27-12/27: Clinton 28, Edwards 29, Obama 29
ARG, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 24
Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/19: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.
« My One Question About The Register Poll So Far... | Main | And CNN's Poll Gives It Back To Clinton, Romney » Here Now: The Clinton Campaign On The Iowa Poll01 Jan 2008 03:49 am Comments (11)
Let Camp Clinton Cry me some rivers...Obama will whoop them come thursday...A leader we can trust to tell us what we need to hear not what we want to hear...A leader who get it right on Iraq, Iran and Pakistan. A leader who turn down Wall street to work for common man. A leader who refused jobs with large law firm to fight for Civil rights...Honesty and Judgement is what Obama will bring back to White House... 
***Correction*** The Clinton and Edwards camps get it exactly wrong. On Caucus night, 100% of the support for Barack Obama will be registered Democrats. Some will be lifelong Democrats. Others will be NEW Democrats -- people who have been drawn into the Democratic party to vote for a black liberal preaching that we can and must do better in terms of using government to help people who need it.
It may be worth noting that the DMR poll may be picking up a lot of the younger voters who'd traveled away, but are just now returning home from holiday travels. Interestingly, Obama's numbers dropped significantly right around the time that holiday travel would start. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls Maybe those other polls (mentioned by Clinton campaign) are flukes, because they were skewed by the Iowans who didn't travel away: older voters -- Hillary's demographic of greatest support. Perhaps, Hillary has never really had much actual movement, just a distorted "bounce." I don't think this prospect should be easily discounted, particularly due to the fact that much of the polling coincided with the Holidays.
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And more Americans have died from this health care crisis than have died in all the wars in US history. But the tide has turned. And the message is getting out. And taking hold about the fact that we have a very serious, and major health care crisis going on in America. Hurting everyone. Especially our precious little children. Rich, and poor alike. And most all Americans seem to understand now that "HR 676 Not For Profit Single Payer Universal National Health Care For All (Medicare For All)" is the way to go. Like all the other developed countries have done. Americans want government managed, tax payer supported health care Now. Medicare for all. Like other developed countries have. And like older Americans have now. Accept no substitute. I am sick and tired of hearing how the candidates, and politicians health care plans are going to protect, and preserve the private for profit health insurance companies that have been killing, and ripping off the American people. And now the politicians want to mandate (require) that every American has to support the private for profit insurance company's that have been killing, and ripping you off. Or you will be fined, and PENALIZED. Thats right. PENALIZED. Ridiculous! The politicians really think you are all detached idiots. CASH COWS! To lead to the slaughter. Don't put up with that. Just look at what is already happening with Massachusetts insurance mandates. It's a catastrophe. Financially, and medically for all the people of Massachusetts. And the private insurance companies just raised their rates by as much as 16%. And everyone has to pay now. It's a slaughter. It's NOW TIME to bring out the BIG GUNS!! The BIG GUNS!! are you. The American people. And anyone else that wants to help. From now until HR 676 is passed into law. I want every person to reach out and touch their fellow Americans every day if you can. I want you to take a phone book. And call at least one of your fellow Americans every day. And ask them to pickup the sword of HR 676 Single Payer Not For Profit Universal Health Care For All (Medicare For All). Call more than one each day if you can. And ask them to do the same as you are doing if they can. And also to put maximum pressure on their politicians to get HR 676 done. And to make sure their politicians support HR 676. Accept no substitute. HR 676 is a no-brainer. It's the best way to go on health care. It's the only moral, and ethical way to go. That is why every other developed country has done it. Most did it years ago. See sickocure.org, and http://www.house.gov/conyers/news_hr676.htm I know that many of you have been doing a fabulous job of spreading the word by talking it up with family, friends, and co-workers. And putting pressure on the politicians to get HR 676 done ASAP. The phone calls to your fellow Americans will increase the pressure. And increase momentum for HR 676 at an astonishing, and exponential rate. And I know many of you have been wanting to do something more to help. The phone calls to your fellow Americans is something you can do every day to help. Trust me. It will be something to see. But you have to keep the focus, and pressure on getting HR 676 passed pronto. They will try to distract you. With all manor of other crises, and catastrophes. And other plans. Don't be distracted. HR 676 Single Payer Not For Profit Universal Health Care is the #1 concern of the American people. Thousands of Americans are dieing daily now. And you or your loved ones could be next. There is no good reason HR 676 cannot be passed into law well before the coming elections. And SCHIP should have been passed by now. Even if it was for 3x the 35 billion congress ask for. Do not tolerate delays. If it is not passed before the coming elections. All America will know which politicians are on the side of the American people. And which are not when they vote. Well before the elections. This is supposed to be a democracy. And well over the majority of Americans want tax payer supported single payer government managed health care for free for all Americans as a right. Many of the politicians will be soliciting your financial, and political support for the coming elections. Make sure you send a note telling them that you expect them to support HR 676 if they expect you to support them. Everyone can do this. Most of you are well informed about HR 676. This truly is one of those no-brainers. Be considerate of your fellow Americans when you call. But be comfortable about calling. These are your fellow Americans. Some will be receptive. And some will not be. Some maybe rude, and mean. Just thank them, and move on to the next. Most will be with you. And if you get a call from one of your fellow Americans about HR 676. Let them know you are already on board. And thank them for calling. Build them up. And keep them strong. They are fighting for all of us. Keep fighting. Pickup that phone, and call your fellow Americans. It's the right thing to do. It's time to start swinging your political sledge hammers. Until your government gets the message you want HR 676 NOW! And nothing else. No more insurance mandate bait, and switch. Or hokey tax deduction lunacy, and lies. Start using all your power Now. There are at least 250-300 million of you that want HR 676. The insurance, and medical industry want to keep our disgraceful system as it is. And force you through mandates to pay them to rip you off, RAPE! You, and KILL you, and your loved ones. Everyone knows the true story now. If we continue to let them get away with this through our politicians, and our corrupted political system. The American people will be known as the worlds biggest bunch of lazy chumps, and dummy's. Don't let that happen. Start swinging your political sledge hammers with all your might until HR 676 is law. So we can have the best Universal Health Care system in the world. Bless you all... KEEP FIGHTING!!!!! Be creative. Your doing great!
I pity the foo' that thinks Thursday's caucus is going to look like 2004. There are barely any similarities, except that they are chronologically adjacent.
jacksmith, that was an unnecessarily long and out of scope post. Please use proper netiquette.
Adam, In the early 70's there was a string of movies called Blaxploitation movies. Two popular one's were called "sweet sweetback" and "Shaft". To quote the second movie "I'm just talking about Shaft" ;-)
Jeff says "on Caucus night, 100% of the support for Barack Obama will be registered Democrats. Some will be lifelong Democrats. Others will be NEW Democrats" TRUE - that's because to participate in the Iowa Democratic Caucus, you have to be a Democrat - therefore allegedly, those 40% independents and 5% Republicans will switch their affiliations either just prior or on-site at the caucus. THIS IS ALARMING - because the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party should be the one to pick their candidate - those who have been long-term Democratics, not those who switch their party for convenience sake the night of the vote. Obama is the candidate of the non-Democrats and this is very scary.
Obama's appeal to Independents and Republicans is "very scary"? Really? Wouldn't Independent and Republican support make it easier for a Democratic candidate to win in a general election?
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Of course not. How could a poll that has Hillary behind be accurate?
Posted by JC | January 1, 2008 4:38 AM