I think the main question about Edwards is not whether he can win tonight, but what happens to him if he does win. Does he have the money or the organization to power through in later contests? Where does he go in NH? Let's stay he manages second there -- what next? He is nowhere in SC and not on the ballot in Michigan.
1) Win Iowa
2) Finish strong in NH (2nd is ok)
3) Get the endorsement of the culinary workers and Unite Here, who are the power-brokers in NV
4) Win Nevada
5) Head into SC, home state, with 1,2,1 finishes, and win there (1st in NH and 2nd in SC also ok)
Three wins in the first four, and the media anoints him the winner heading into 2/5.
The key is obviously first winning Iowa, and then it's Nevada and the unions. He needs successes in the early states in order to get that endorsement - they're clearly staying out to make sure they endorse a winner - but with an Iowa win, I think the rest of the dominoes start falling for Edwards.
Marc Ambinder, an Atlantic associate editor, blogs about politics and Washington. He might also write the occasional post about aviation, national security, and cognitive neuroscience. Mostly politics, though.
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Edwards' argument leading up to the caucuses is right on the money for most Dems. But is he just too angry for the current climate?
http://www.political-buzz.com/
Posted by matt | January 3, 2008 11:27 AM