« DNC Intervenes In Nevada At-Large Lawsuit | Main | Michigan And Clinton » Just Asking...16 Jan 2008 11:08 am Why, precisely, do we, the media, not believe that John Edwards could win Nevada? Because I think he could win Nevada... Incidentally: my guess, based on what I've seen, heard and read, is that the results will bebunchedtogether and that no one will be able to declare victory. Comments (18)
I think this is a good call -> Edwards in the mix for Nevada top spot. I like Edwards - especially 2004 Edwards, but do not enjoy his new rhetoric. The media also seems upset that McCain did not win Michigan. In fact, he lost convincingly. Maybe the Republican contest will not turn on personality, but on grinding out delgates. For example, Nevada has 31 delegates on the line Saturday, compared with South Carolina's 24. Romney apparently did the math. Yet it is all SC for the media. Delegates matter as much as famous states. Romney MI, WY 36 
It seems to me like most in the media think Edwards has a good shot. He's right there in the polls and has strong union support. Plus, in a caucus, anything can happen. The problem for him is that any momentum will be short-lived as he's way behind in the South Carolina and nationally.
Hmmmm... maybe because the media has consistently refused to take Edwards seriously, even in a world where big old Rudy can sit back and do nothing (or campaign and do worse) and still be considered formidable (wait for Florida, folks!). Please, you know exactly why the media won't discuss Edwards' potential... you don't like him (which you admitted resoundingly last year). Next.
It seems to me like most in the media think Edwards has a good shot. He's right there in the polls and has strong union support. Plus, in a caucus, anything can happen. Odd, then, that he's not getting any play at all in the media to speak of. You'd think he wasn't even running at all, really.
That's a good thing for Edwards that he's not getting more attention. It means he has lower expectations. The more people talk about him, the less surprising it'll be if he does well.
Edwards is a fool.
I hope Edwards beats expectations in Nevada. Whatever the outcome, I am planning to vote for Edwards in my February 5th primary. Why? Because my heart and head are with him. He has the most progressive policy proposals and he regularly bests the republican candidates in head to head match ups. He recently did much better than either Clinton or Obama against McCain. This will translate into longer coattails and a congressional majority that can actually enact legislation If you support him, please give to his campaign (see his website) on January 18th. If 100,000 supporters give an average of 70 dollars he can raise the 7,000,000 dollars the campaign is shooting for. I'm not going to think about who to support after Edwards until it is absolutely necessary to do so.
I expect Edwards will win large swaths of northern Nevada. Unfortunately for Edwards nobody lives in northern Nevada.
Though I'm an Obama supporter, I'd love to see Edwards take Nevada. Unfortunately, I expect the Clinton machine to roll over the state. Post-debate, MSNBC reported that casino owners will not allow their employees to attend the caucuses. Too much time off their shift... Despite endorsements, my expectations are very low for Sen. Obama in Nevada. If it's close, expect the Clintonites to swarm media with declarations of victory.
The latest poll from Nevada out this morning has Obama and Clinton in a toss-up with Edwards close behind.
Wait a minute ... did Marc just write something positive about Edwards? How did that get by the editor?
It would seem he is well positioned to win in Nevada but I wouldn't bet on it. The reason I am taking a believe-it-when-I-see-it approach to Edwards in Nevada is that the run-up to Saturday reminds me a lot of Iowa. I know this is far from scientific, but I really thought Edwards would win in Iowa and am seeing some of the same indicators that led me to beleive that this time around. I saw Jon Ralston on msnbc yesterday and his words were nearly identical to someone just before new year's talking about how strong Edwards was in the rural areas that were underrepresented in polls. Also, his second place in Iowa is a bit misleading, he was the biggest beneficiary of second place votes, something that will not be an issue in Nevada. On straight first choice votes Clinton actually finished second.
The first initiative for the Edwards presidency should be the construction of a life-sized Mill Village so that all Americans can visit and experience what life is like in that "other America". It could feature life-sized animatronic infants struggling for survival and hordes of mill workers wearily milling stuff at the mill. And anyone with the last name Mills or Miller gets in free. Definitely.
Why - if Edwards thinks he could win, or surprise in NV - is he leaving the state Thurs afternoon and not coming back (according to public schedules)?
Jimmy, he's added an event Thursday night. Obama and Hillz are leaving Friday. But the answer, Marc, is that Edwards is running no ads, and has no mail. The entire state establishment is supporting Clinton or OBama. All he's got is his message. If he comes within 10 points of Obama and Clinton, it'll be a huge upset.
re: The guess c'mon Marc, the winner will declare victory. Hillary winning by 3-4 points in NH was a big deal. Whoever wins NV will also make a big deal out of it. Of course it will be a bigger deal if JE wins it, but any of the three will make a big deal out of it for purposes of momentum. Personally, I am afraid BO is over though. Which makes me really sad.
Hey NM it was 2-3 points, not 3-4. As for what happens, I'd wait for the results of that casino caucus lawsuit before predicting.
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Why must you tease Edwards supporters so? I had accepted that Edwards wouldn't win anything once he had lost Iowa and now you and these two Nevada polls are getting my hopes up again.
But after all, Huckabee, Obama, McCain, Clinton, and Romney supporters have all gotten a victory party. Isn't it our turn?
Posted by Dave | January 16, 2008 11:38 AM