Last Words On The Register Poll

1. The turnout model is weird, and even the Obama campaign doesn't project a turnout universe of 200,000, including 40% independents. (OK, Gordon Fischer, Obama's Iowa co-chair does, but..) ...

2. As NBC's Chuck Todd pointed out to me, when you go to Obama events, you do see a lot of independents and even some Republicans.

3. If Obama is going to win the caucuses, he's probably going to win big, thanks to an enormous infusion of new caucusers. If Clinton wins, it's because hard corps Democrats turned out in larger numbers.

4. For all the bellyaching about the poll, Ann Selzer, the pollster, is considered to be the best in the businesses and has earned the benefit of the doubt.

5. It's monstrously difficult to poll the Iowa Democratic caucuses... and easier to poll the Republican...well, they call it a caucus, but it's really a primary.

Comments

I'll take momentum. A quarter of caucus-goers will decide in the final three days.

From the DMR's David Yepsen discussing his paper's poll:

"the nightly results show Obama's support flat over the last two nights, Clinton's declining each night, and Edwards' support increasing each night."

Posted by Petey | January 1, 2008 9:02 AM

Edwards is up 3 points over the four days of the DMR poll.

Posted by Petey | January 1, 2008 9:04 AM

As an Obama supporter, I would even agree that no one should take this, or any poll, without a few grains of salt given the fact that these polls are based on assumptions that are impossible to predict exactly in advance.

What is striking to me is that the media seem to magically "re-discover" methodoligical limitations of polls whenever Obama is up in a poll.

Let me repeat: I am not saying these methodological issues don't exist; merely that they seem to be ignored or downplayed when Obama is down in a poll, and talked about incessantly when Obama is up in a poll.

This is a pattern I have noticed in media coverage of polls throughout the entire campaign.

The bottom line now is that no amount of spinning or expectation-game playing is probably going to alter the results of the caucus...it's all about closing argumnets, which way undecideds and soft supporters will break, second choice dynamics, etc. The campaigns and media really ought to stop wringing their hands about polling right now and keep their eye on the ball.

Posted by RKA | January 1, 2008 9:31 AM

"The bottom line now is that no amount of spinning or expectation-game playing is probably going to alter the results of the caucus...it's all about closing argumnets, which way undecideds and soft supporters will break, second choice dynamics, etc."

Yup. And that's why Edwards momentum is so important.

Win the last 72 hours, and you're going to win the caucuses.

Posted by Petey | January 1, 2008 9:35 AM

The Yepsen comment is puzzling (well, not really), since Obama's support and Edwards' support goes up equally during the course of polling, until they reach 34% and 26% respectively on the last day, whereas Clinton's support decreases each 2-day rolling average, down to 23%. This really seems like a blatant spin by Yepsen that is outright false. If he wanted to argue, he should have stuck with something more defensible, like the turnout model, which is really just an educated guess.

Posted by Charlie | January 1, 2008 10:23 AM

"The Yepsen comment is puzzling (well, not really), since Obama's support and Edwards' support goes up equally during the course of polling, until they reach 34% and 26% respectively on the last day, whereas Clinton's support decreases each 2-day rolling average, down to 23%."

Yepsen obviously has access to the per-day averages, which we don't.

Posted by Petey | January 1, 2008 10:26 AM

What;s funny to me was that the media was licking its chops yesterday morning because they interpreted the Obama powerpoint presentation to mean that he was pre-butting the poll which was going to have bad news for him. The media was also touting the "poll of pollsters" that showed that the DMR poll was the best and the most accurate.

The media had its hammer raised to put a nail in Obama's imaginary coffin by seeing the effects of the media-hyped/Media-induced Edwards "surge." Why would the media be hyping Edwards right now? Because of Mark Penn's marching orders, of course, to do whatever possible to minimize and Obama slingshot out of Iowa.

I like John Edwards, but sadly a vote for Edwards is a vote for Hillary Clinton at this stage and that is why the media, eager for the circus of a Clinton restoration, had been so emotionally invested in the Edwards surge that they are now picking apart the poll they had been hyping mere hours ago.

Basically, the media was for the DMR poll before it was against it.

Posted by RKA | January 1, 2008 11:06 AM

In any caucus, poll reliability is relative. According to my analysis the average error in the DMR poll is 7% for candidates receiving over ten percent in the last three cycles. There's also no pattern in who goes up or who goes down between front runners or those behind.

Posted by AJ | January 1, 2008 11:19 AM

(With apologies to Meredith Wilson)

We’ve got trouble, right here in River City
With a capitol T and that rhymes with P and that stands for Polls.
We’ve got trouble, right here in River City
Reporting nonsense that’ll suck your brains like a big black hole.

And soon your kids’ll be using words
Not good words like “tax policy” or “health care reform”
But words like “momentum” (gasp)
Or “trend lines” (gasp)
Or “margin of error” (TROUBLE)

You ever hear of FDR talking about “trend lines”?
Ever hear Ike talk about “margin of error”?
I should say not.
My friends, useless numbers are the devil’s tools.

Posted by Barry | January 1, 2008 11:56 AM

It's "hard core". Ditch that spell-checker.

Posted by gh | January 1, 2008 1:19 PM

Dr. Powers, Africom, and Obama and Huckabee. Is
Darfur worth another Mogadishu and is Kenya Liberia? Should US forces get slaughtered in Africa again.

Most countries want nothing to do with Africom.

Posted by SPowers | January 1, 2008 8:53 PM

Edwards is a phony and everyone knows it.

Posted by joseph pierre | January 1, 2008 10:14 PM