Latest Michigan Poll: McCain + 7

Steve Mitchell, an unaffiliated pollster in Michigan, has finished a survey of likely Republican primary voters.

He finds that Sen. John McCain has 23%, a seven point advantage of Mitt Romney and a 12 point advantage of Mike Huckabee. Equally, 23% say they are undecided. The margin of error is about +/- 5.3%.

Comments

Thought you might like to know details about a robo-call just received by me in Ypsilanti, Michigan, approx. 8:15 PM, today the 10th. I was unable to write down a complete transcript of the call, but it was clearly pro-Huckabee and anti-Romney. In push-poll format, it gave me the lowdown on the two candidates. Huckabee wants my taxes lower, and supported the Bush tax cuts, while Romney is apparently out to tax me to support illegal immigrants in "sanctuary cities". It mentioned the immigration issue the most, mentioning the Minutemen organization endorsing Huckabee twice. It also brought up "the Clinton gun ban laws" and asked if I supported them. After saying no (to make sure I heard what came next), it said Romney endorsed these gun-grabbing laws, but that Huckabee not only didn't endorse them, but was a "life-long hunter" and has a concealed carry permit. That was the weirdest part. Gun control is one thing, but apparently I was supposed to be reassured because Huck is *personally* packin' heat.

Posted by larry | January 11, 2008 7:44 PM

Hello, Marc-

This was a good find in light of the relative dearth of Michigan polling. Today (Saturday), Rasmussen put it at:

Mitt 26%
McCain 25%
Huck 17%
Fred 9%
Paul 8%
Rudy 6%

So, a statistical tie...

Posted by ElectionNightHQ.com Publisher | January 12, 2008 4:03 PM

Just to add some detail, it's McCain 23, Romney 17, Huckabee 11, with Giuliani and Paul coming in at 8% apiece. I presume that the McCain +6 vs. McCain +7 discrepancy is rounding-based. Unfortunately, Mitchell Interactive doesn't provide much by way of methodology or crosstabs.

Different accounts have the MoE at +/- 4.1% and "about 5%" (my own back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that it should be closer to the latter, around 4.89%) and there seem to have been 400 respondents in the two-day sample. I can't find any indication of the GOP/DEM/IND split, other than a statement that McCain narrowly leads among Republicans, but secures most of his margin from Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

It's also not clear whether Thompson (who is drawing low single digits in other polls) was included in the rotation.

Here's the Mitchell Interactive press release on the poll, and here's a brief news writeup. Marc, do you have any further information which might shed more light on these results?

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