Many Polls; Same Results

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by an average of 7-10 points; John McCain is 4 to 6 points ahead of Mitt Romney.

** A weekend sample from CBS News of the same voters from its November survey gives Barack Obama a 35 to 28 to 19 lead over Clinton and Edwards. Clinton's electability quotient dropped from 72 to 41 points, suggesting that Iowa's propulsive effect -- a social cuing effect, mostly -- was huge. Obama leads independents by a lot; Clinton leads Democrats by a little; there are more Dems than independents in the sample, but Obama's margin among them more than makes up for his lag on Democrats.

** Marist has Obama at 36, Clinton at 28, and Edwards at 22. For GOPers, McCain leads Romney by 4 points, 35 to 31, but the margin of error is +/- 4.5%.

** The Republican race is close, according to USA Today/Gallup: McCain leads 34 to 30 (outside the margin of error for that poll, but barely). A whopping 30% remain undecided, and economic issues / illegal immigration are the top two important issues.

** On the Dem side, Obama leads Clinton 41 to 28, with Edwards at 19. 30% remain undecided, but 31% of the sample say they are "certain" to vote for Obama. Iraq, the economy and health care are the top three issues. By 51% to 26%, voters say Obama has the new ideas that would solve the country's problems.

Comments

At this point, if Hillary can come in within 5 points of Obama in NH she'll actually end up with some decent publicity. If it's a blowout, I don't see how she turns it around over the next month.

Posted by Helter | January 7, 2008 11:43 AM

I enjoy your blog, but I wish you took a Stats class at Harvard. I cannot read an entire election cycle with this same mistake. The USAToday/Gallup poll.

Margin for error of +/- 4%. This means you are 95% confident (95 of 100 times) that the results will fall into an 8 point range.

McCain 34 +/- 4 means 30-to-38%

Romney 30 +/- 4 means 26-to-34%

IT DOES NOT MEAN MCCAIN'S LEAD IS OUTSIDE THE MARGIN FOR ERROR IF THE POLL RESULT IS 34% TO 30% OVER ROMNEY.

So statistically speaking, they are tied.

Republicans.

• McCain: 34%; up from 27% in mid-December.
• Romney: 30%; down from 34%.
• Mike Huckabee: 13%; up from 9%.
• Rep. Ron Paul: 8%; down from 9%.
• Rudy Giuliani: 8%; down from 11%.
• No one else above 3%.

Each figure has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. So Obama's lead is "outside" that range, while McCain's is not.

Posted by chris carberry | January 7, 2008 11:49 AM

I don’t know if this is true, but The Drudge Report is saying that, facing a big loss in NH, Hillary may drop out soon. Hillary’s team does love tipping off Drudge. Here’s the report…

http://www.drudgereport.com/flashhn.htm

Posted by Ava | January 7, 2008 11:54 AM

Drudge is poison.

Posted by cms | January 7, 2008 12:08 PM

It's over for Hillary...in New Hampshire.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by matt | January 7, 2008 12:39 PM

I don't care who wins the Dem primary but don't you think that all these polls are changing the expectations game for Obama? What if due to the margin of error he wins but only by a point or two? Does Hillary (not to mention the press) say she made a big comeback from the polls the day before? If I were Obama I would wish the pollsters would shut up and let the voters speak.

Posted by Bajsa | January 7, 2008 1:11 PM

There were 6 (yes, that's right SIX) polls released just this morning and some of them actually have some vague hope for Hillary. I've pulled a full round-up together here.

Posted by Daniel, NY | January 7, 2008 1:19 PM

I predict a Romney victory. Fox was talking about how the buzz on the ground was all about Romney. Luntz's focus group went into last night's debate undecided and came out nearly unanimous in favor of Mitt. I think most of the independents will vote on the Democrat side. Rush Limbaugh doesn't endorse candidates, but he gave his listeners clues to follow on who to vote for that only an idiot couldn't decipher. Talk radio in general has been on the rampage against McCain. So, if independents make up less than 30% of the Republican primary vote, chalk it up for Mitt!

Posted by Dave | January 7, 2008 2:30 PM

I have to ask: does Marc Ambinder do anything more on this blog than post poll results and talking points from the various campaigns. This is the worst political reporting. I expected a lot more from The Atlantic, especially when it has some pretty good bloggers - Yglesias and to a lesser extent Sullivan

Posted by Joe Strummer | January 7, 2008 3:16 PM

Bottom line:

I think Hillary Clinton must get back on that horse that brutally through her to the ground back in 1993. That horse is HR 676 (Medicare For all). Insurance mandates of any kind are totally unacceptable to the American people . Thank God. The vast majority of Americans know better than that now. They want single payer tax supported government managed universal health care free for all as a right. And they want it NOW! And they are right to demand it. The American people are suffering by the millions, and dieing by the ten's of thousands now. It's not just about everyone having coverage anymore. It's about the disgraceful quality of health care in America. Even for people with the best insurance coverage you can buy. And it has to end.

I have enormous admiration, and respect for Hillary Clinton. She fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds back in 1993. To prevent this disastrous health care crisis that is now devastating the American people, and America. She fought so hard for the American people that she risk almost completely destroying her husbands presidency. I haven't forgot her heroic effort. If anyone has reason to be reluctant to get back on that bucking bronc again, it's her.

But I think the time is now. And more importantly. I think the American people are ready to do what they have got to do. To fix our disastrous, and deadly health care delivery system. At least I hope so. For all our sakes. Hillary Clinton is right. This is not a game. It's bigger than parties, and politics. It's about the life, or continued needless deaths of millions of Americans. And HR 676 (Medicare For All) is the way to save us.

Posted by jacksmith | January 7, 2008 7:23 PM

Credibility is key. The only thing emptier than Hillary Clinton is her hyperbole; nobody's buying the rhetoric or her. Bill Clinton may have crowned himself the “comeback kid,” in another decade, in another millennium. Of course, that was also before he elected to school us on the vagaries of the meaning of the word, is.

When FBI Director Louis J. Freeh wrote, “The problem was with Bill Clinton, the scandals and rumored scandals, the incubating ones and the dying ones never ended. Whatever moral compass the president was consulting [Hillary] was leading him in the wrong direction. His closets were full of skeletons just waiting to burst out,” Mr. Freeh wasn’t kidding.

I don’t know the exact date the Clintons flushed their compasses, but any reasonable person should feel demeaned at the prospect of voting for Hillary. A vote is more than mere tacit approval; in this case it’s tantamount to complicity. So, I’m more than delighted the good people of the State of Iowa told Hillary to ride out on the horse (helicopter) on which she rode in, and I pray the good people of the State of New Hampshire will follow suit. I believe the good people of the State of South Carolina are already licking their chops. But if the guiding principle of history truly is irony, then savor: http://theseedsof9-11.com

Posted by Peggy McGilligan | January 7, 2008 9:34 PM