McCain!
Why?
(1) Five years of hard work by McCain, consultants Richard Quinn and John Weaver in upstate South Carolina....the endorsement of the Greenville, SC state senator...apologizing to Falwell...
(2) demographics: growth in Charleston, Midlands and Horry county...
(3) The surge worked...and McCain stayed in the news...
(4) Rick Davis slims down the campaign, keeps staff in SC, but focuses on NH
(5) Thompson saps conservative votes from Huckabee...
(6) Romney's decision to pull out at the last minute...Giuliani's decision to pull out earlier...
(7) Veterans, enough Republicans and independents...
« South Carolina GOP Primary Wire | Main | Common Sense, From Nevada »
McCain Wins
19 Jan 2008 09:27 pm
Comments (19)
Ah, blaming the media. That old face-saving staple.
For my money, you can chalk the victory up to #3 as much as anything. And the fact that some Republican voters would actually, you know, like to win in November.
Good for McCain...and Huckabee came in second....Romney came in 4th - a good thing. Rudy...Rudy...LMAO
All the reasons list were factors to some degree, but #5 was the key. Thompson, a close friend of McCain in real life, played the Spoiler role to the hilt. But who plays that role in Florida?
From Fox down to MSNBC it was wall-to-wall fluffing of America's Greatest Victim and Favorite War Hero. And speculation of how anyone can stop the man that Republicans now love, love more than ever. Looks like all that immigration stuff and 20 years of backstabbing other Republicans wasn't that important to voters..
Meanwhile, Romney picked up a 52% victory in Nevada which the media dismissed because it "wasn't that contested". And was just a caucus...
Before of segueing right into the great importance of the Democrat Caucuses in Nevada, of course.
Limbaugh loses. Over 75% of the Republican vote went to McCain and Huckabee, despite Rush Limbaugh's daily tirades. Talk Radio again demonstrates that it can only grow and hold an audience of angry white men by delivering daily doses of race-baiting and hate speech - a strategy that continues to drive moderates, independents and virtually all minorities away from the GOP.
Keep up that Kingfish voice you do when you mock Obama! Keep up the race-baiting! This week you got McCain elected, next week Obama! Way to go, Rush!
McCain! also lost to Ron Paul in a state right next to his no less. Pathetic.
Not sure what SC were promised but if the GOP puts this guy up or even worse a McCain/Huckabee ticket in November we are going to lose big time.
Thats the only good thing about this, because even if Obama/Hillary loses to McCain (which I think is likely), at least Limbaugh and the other big mouth conservatives wont get who they want either.
Maybe President McCain will surprise us with his supreme court picks too (he certainly doesnt owe the right wingers anything). I really doubt that, but with a democrat senate theres at least a chance.
(3) The surge worked...and McCain stayed in the news...
You write for the Atlantic. How many posts by Yglesias and Sullivan, detailing exactly how the surge has not "worked" by the goals detailed by its creators, did you have to ignore in order to make such a ridiculously ignorant statement?
How many posts by Yglesias and Sullivan, detailing exactly how the surge has not "worked" by the goals detailed by its creators
HAHAHAHAHA! Funny, I never thought of either as being the go-to sources of information about what's actually happening on the ground in Iraq...but then I don't live in the groupthink lefty world.
LOL!
Dream on!
Rudy is going to win FL. You heard it here first.
Here is Rudy's welcome message to those heading to FL:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYc3LD-HqkY
never thought of either as being the go-to sources of information about what's actually happening on the ground in Iraq
What's going on on the ground in Iraq is not disputed. Violence is down, but political reconciliation is non-existent. Reducing violence was not the goal of the surge, political reconciliation was the goal. Since there has been no reconciliation, the surge has been a failure.
The nomination is McCain's to lose now. If he wins in Florida, with his numbers surging in a number of important Super Tues. states, he'll coast right on in. And all Mitt Romney will have to show for it will be an empty feeling for having blown around $50 million of his own money trying to buy an election. Oh, and some delegates from his home state(s), and the Mormon vote in Nevada. Last night couldn't have gone much better for GOPers who actually want to win in November.
McCain will be a loser for the GOP and Michael Graham at NRO hit the exact reason why:
"If you really want to see McCain's weakness, however, try this thought experiment:
It's October, 2008. America's economy is in a recession. People are demanding change and new ideas, someone to give them optimism and hope on domestic issues. On stage, facing off in their final presidential debate to discuss jobs, economic policy and hope for the future are John McCain and Barack Obama.
And be sure to imagine how it will look on television, and to people who don't really follow politics (they are, after all, the swing voters who will pick the next president).
Now, tell me again how any Republican won tonight...?"
Hello, Marc, commenters-
I've written a very detailed analysis of Marc's fine post above. Marc identified seven factors which he felt were significant in McCain's victory. In my piece, I go through each point, one by one, offering my own take. Here's a summary:
1) McCain's early organization, particularly among some who opposed him in 2000, was critical.
2) Success along the coastal counties (I have it broken down by county.
3) The success of the surge in Iraq.
4) Rick Davis's masterful campaign management, balancing between NH and SC.
5) Help from Fred - Fred's six best counties were all in the Upstate, in Huck country.
6) Mitt pulling out late - that's the one I don't agree w/ . Mitt campaigned very hard in SC, spent more money on TV than all other Republicans combinded, built a big organization and campaigned there often (most memorably, at the Staples in Columbia on Friday.)
7) McCain did much better among veterans than he did in 2000, as well as w/ Republicans and independents.
My piece - http://blog.electionnighthq.com/2008/01/20/the-atlantics-ambinder-mccain-wins-listing-7-reasons-and-enhq-does-some-more-analysis/
Reactions are welcome.
I've done an analysis of the Republican delegate race and what could happen in the remaining states. This nomination looks like it's definitely McCain's to lose... but it was interesting to map out on a spreadsheet and see where the important contests are likely to be.
I predict McCain will have a strong February 5th and then wrap things up on March 4th in Texas and Ohio. If Romney is doing better than expected, it could make Pennsylvania on April 22nd pretty important.
Here's the link to my analysis:
http://electopundit.blogspot.com/2008/01/republican-delegate-race.html
I've also done the Democratic race:
http://electopundit.blogspot.com/2008/01/democratic-delegate-race.html
What's going on on the ground in Iraq is not disputed. Violence is down, but political reconciliation is non-existent. Reducing violence was not the goal of the surge, political reconciliation was the goal. Since there has been no reconciliation, the surge has been a failure.>>>
Ridiculously poor logic. The overall goal of our presence in Iraq, of course, is to secure reconciliation, but the surge itself was about reducing the violence, as an obvious first step. That was successful. Without the surge, the situation might have deteriorated into an actual civil war. Soldiers and Marines have no ability to promote political reconciliation, only politicians and the public can do that. And that simply isn't going to happen overnight. We have to be patient.
Item #5 hits on the big reason for McCain's victory - the conservative vote is split, between Romney, Thompson, and perceived conservative Huckabee. (And a tiny bit for Hunter, who is now out.)
Mc Cain is too old. He is too old. On election day he is going to be 73. Give it up. America will never do that again.
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8) Media shills for McCain incessantly
(But mostly #5)
Posted by Teresa | January 19, 2008 9:29 PM