Michigan Primary / Dem Debate Wire

The Sage

Early Exit Poll Trends

Buzz words: The Economy. Republicans. Issues.

** A majority say the economy is their top issue; nearly 70% say the US economy is poor

** More (57%) care about issues than leadership qualities (40%)

** 68% of voters in the Republican primary identified as Republican; a quarter said they were independents and 7% said they were Democrats.... (in 2000, only 45% said they were Republican)..

** 44% say they decided in the final week

Comments

Don't care about leadership qualities? Then Multiple Choice Mitt is back!

Posted by AJ | January 15, 2008 5:46 PM

A thousand thanks for abandoning NH's experimental blog format, and posting your insights and observations in legible form.

Posted by Cynic | January 15, 2008 5:49 PM

32% non-GOP is higher than most polls had pegged this past week... most had put non-GOP turnout at about 15%-20%.

44% in the last week cuts McCain's way per recent polling.

Issues over leadership likely supports Romney; concern about economy gives Romney a huge edge as businessman.

Iraq and GWOT were very low, which hurts McCain.

Posted by anon | January 15, 2008 5:56 PM

Intrade has been trending towards Romney and away from McCain over the past few hours, which should give an indication of where the (often misleading) exit polls are leading folks.

Posted by Petey | January 15, 2008 6:01 PM

I think Huckabee will win over those concerns listed above.
Economy problem = FarTax solution
Conservative Issues = Huckabee's plans, supported by past actions on proven Conservative issues will win the day.
Leadership = the President is a PUBLIC SERVANT not a businessman, and Mike's 10+ years of successful governing will prevail. In 10 years he took AK; From debt to surplus, Income Tax decrease, overall fee and tax increase of 1% above inflation, schools went from #49 to #7, kept WalMart's headquarters in his state, and this against a Democrat legislature.
Recently decided = Huckabee's supporters don't change their mind as much as other Candidates so these folk may not be for Mike, but they will stick to him if they are!

Posted by eworthi | January 15, 2008 6:23 PM

Let us not overlook the Ron Paul factor. Low turnout can be good for him. Look for 10% again. A strong 4th place finish just behind Huckabee at 13%

Posted by Jack Sanderson | January 15, 2008 6:51 PM

Mitt Romney should win Michigan, which should catapult him to front runner status. He is already the front-runner with the most GOP delegates, but a victory in Michigan would be huge, considering that McCain has democrats and independents to pull from.

Posted by New York Voter | January 15, 2008 7:31 PM

Drudge says the exit polls show 34% Romney, 29% McCain, for what that's worth. Matches the intrade numbers, though.

Posted by John | January 15, 2008 7:32 PM

Wow, check out those intrade numbers on the Michigan Primary - Romney's at 81 now...

Posted by John | January 15, 2008 7:36 PM